Global Warming 6: Terror, Wars, Fears and Paralysis
March 21, 2007
Global Warming is real; it threatens life as we know it; urgent corrective actions are needed; such actions are not implemented except in isolated and insufficient cases. Solutions are held back politically although the basic issue largely consists of reading politically neutral thermometers. Majorities acknowledge climate change exists but dismiss personal jeopardy. A vocal minority faction of Skeptics discredits obvious, well documented and undisputable scientific facts. Why is Global Warming so hard to accept and to act on?
Millions believe in UFOs and the Majestic Documents. Others are sure Elvis Presley is alive; the Loch Ness monster is real and so is Bigfoot; O. J. Simpson is innocent; Michael Jackson’s nose is real; Mel Gibson excuses are heart felt; Ann Coulter really is a woman; eHarmony is a sure way to happiness; insurgents are on the run; the Iraq war is just about won; CIA blew up the WTC; Apollo never landed on the Moon; the Holocaust never happened and SUVs do not pollute. If you, or (rather) others, accept such stretches of mind boggling reality, why not believe Global Warming which actually is real? After all, Global Warming beats any National Enquirer story by a mile or more.
Do Skeptics really have sufficient clout to hold politicians back? If so, why is that? For that matter, why do we have a bunch of these dominant Skeptics? Is it a matter of religion? Why would a religious person want to risk fellow citizens? Is it the right versus the left? If so, why are rightists suicidal and committing the lefties to the same grisly end? Is it cost? Well, yes, but no sane person will risk mankind for a few bucks. Is it stupidity? No, I don’t think so. Similar issues were quickly dealt with in the past without the fuss of Global Warming. Why not now? The answer isn’t real clear.
The disbelief may be fueled by mixing “never heard of it and I don’t care” syndromes, too much weird techno babble, plain old denial of bad news, head in the sand dodging, media hysterics, incoherent politicians and Internet rumor mongering.
However, the most essential and utterly basic component in this strange, allegorical recipe is simply fear. We’d have the same denials if NASA announced a comet will hit in three days, wiping out most life. Some roar “No Way”; others scream “About Time” and a few stock up on emergency supplies and seek shelter. Pat Robertson blames gays, Chinese abortionists and Hugo Chavez. Jerry Falwell ups the ante with “pagans, abortionists, feminists, gays, lesbians, the ACLU and the PAW people”. George W. Bush and Dick Cheney are both on vacation. James Dobson recommends spanking your kids one last time. Tony Blair defers the matter to Bush. Vladimir Putin lights a candle on Stalin’s grave. Jacques Chirac blames les Américains terribles. The end indeed is near – hold it – the savior is here – Pat Robertson changed the course of the comet! Bless him.
To the fear recipe, add your personality ingredients, such as free range, marbled, genetically manipulated, farmed, artificially colored, organic, pasteurized, homogenized, mad cowed or bird flued – whatever your corresponding personality and beliefs are. Stir in the inertia of the politicians. Marinate the special interest groups. Chop and add the Realpolitik of major countries. Sautee the corporate slyness. Sprinkle with the abnormal incompetence of the US White House. Roast in oven and you’ll have a horrible, indigestible, fearful mess on your hands called Global Warming Chop Chop – a favorite in the Arctic where suddenly there is nothing else to eat.
This post will examine why Global Warming seems so hard to act on. The goal is to get some answers or at least identify some relevant patterns. History will help finding answers and patterns. Global Warming must be seen in its context, how it relates to society in general.
Tables of Contents and Other Stuff
The complete Global Warming essay is split up in several individual posts. The following introduction simplifies navigation through the mass of material. If you have been following the series, you may (or not) want to skip right to the main content to avoid repetition If so, hit the “Bypass” below. Keep in mind that this introduction and the contents are constantly updated.
If you are new to the series, you may want to 1) start at the beginning of the series using this link: “Culprits, Scoundrels and Villains” or 2) check out the table of content and other explanations of what this is all about – just read on. The TOC button brings you to the essay’s Table of Contents.
About the Essay and Its Nine Main Parts
The essay is split into nine main posts due to its size. Click here for more details on each post.
- The first main post examines the basic reasons why we ended up in this dreadful mess.
- The second main post covers the political and UN scene.
- The third main post deals with rising temperatures.
- The “Sauerkraut” post dives into Europe and its mysteries.
- The fourth main post bares secrets about the forecasting business.
- The “Ann Coulter” post made some fun out of America’s favorite fascist.
- The “Bleakest Outlook Yet” previews the April 2007 UN IPCC Report
- The “Quick News” issue of 3-14-2007 updates you on British, EU and other news.
- The fifth main post explains the issues due to rising populations.
- The present sixth main post probes the polarized attitudes to Global Warming.
- The seventh main post discloses opinions on Global Warming
- The eight main post looks at the very real effects of Global Warming already present.
- The ninth main post explores possible outcomes: cure or disaster?
Additional posts cover special subjects, comments and news. The “Sauerkraut” post looks at Europe and its peculiar history of early tribes, wars and more wars, deceit, Fuehrers, Generalissimos, Emperors, Kings and Queens, imperialism, strange food, democracy and greed, finally ending up as the world’s largest market. The post looks at how all of that, more or less, relates to issue of and attitudes to Global Warming. The post also evaluates, in detail, the recent EU proposal to reduce emissions by 20% by 2020.
I couldn’t resist doing a piece on Ann Coulter. She makes a splendid living out of out-chock-jocking Howard Stern, Bill O’Reilly, Geraldo, Moammar al-Ghadafi, Rush Limbaugh, Jerry Falwell, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Pat Robinson, Hugo Chavez, Baghdad Bob, Joseph Goebbels and Dick Cheney all at once. You gotta admire her ignorant persistence and ambition. Doing anything for a buck, she certainly managed to become America’s favorite fascist. Why not?
The “Bleakest Outlook Yet” is precisely that. There is nothing fun about this preview of the next UN IPCC report “Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability”. These reports are getting more and more alarming which by itself is truly scary. All prior reports have underestimated the impact of climate change.
The “Quick News” feature may become a regular service to keep us all up to date on recent news and to call the BS floating around.
An elaborate link and TOC (Table of Content) system helps you get around the mass of material in this essay of nine main posts. Use it to find what is of your most immediate interest. Just above, there is a TOC button that brings you to the navigation system. Enjoy.
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- GlobalWarming:1 – Culprits, Scoundrels and Villains
- GlobalWarming:2 – Politics, Scandals, Mass Committees
- GlobalWarming:3 – Few Like It Hot
- GlobalWarming:Europe – Sauerkraut, Bourgogne, Bangers
- GlobalWarming:4 – Disastrous Disaster Forecasts
- GlobalWarming:Coulter – To Ann Coulter
- GlobalWarming:UN – The Bleakest Outlook Yet
- GlobalWarming:News – Quick News #1
- GlobalWarming:5 – Just Too Many Of You
- This Post:GlobalWarming:6 – Terror, War, Fear and Paralysis
- GlobalWarming:7 – Lies, Madness and Some Truth
- GlobalWarming:8 – Terrifying Evidence
- GlobalWarming:9 – Cataclysmic Apocalypse?
Odes, Ballads, Songs and Arias
This essay contains real life mini stories. They describe usually small, even insignificant, effects of Global Warming. The aim is to make you consider reality, survival, pain and your own future. I cite simple stories about how some of us (humans, animals, plants, oceans and everything else) are already in, or cause, deep trouble. Here are links to the various little puzzle pieces:
- Allegro to “There Ain’t No Global Warming”
- Adagio to the Krill
- Mountain Top Chorale
- Tiger in Your Tank Two Step
- I Ain’t Seein’ Nuttin’ Strut
- Farming Greenland Fiesta
- Ballad of the Lemmings
- Carol to Failures
- Ode to an Ancient Past
- Chant for the Confused
- Aria for the Polar Bear
- Cacophony of a President
- Tale of the River
- Northeast Song
- Hymn to the North
- Parchment Míddjarn
- Eulogy for the Oceans
Images in this essay
The images in this post differ from those in all the others except the upcoming Post 7: “Lies, Madness and a little Truth”, which follows the same format as this post. All images are paintings rather than photographs, with the exception of a few photos of sculptures. The motif is pain, sorrow and compassion. This theme sets the tone to awareness of the devastating future we may be facing. There may well be a lot of human suffering in our or our kids’ life time due to this ugly thing called Global Warming.
You see, all of this art work is associated with another era of great suffering. The Holocaust. The paintings are by individuals close to that genocide. Some artists were in and survived the camps. Others are children of former camp inmates. Yet others have a different link to the camps. I believe the suffering endured in the camps may, in some sense, be repeated in the future of Global Warming. We may not see a Dr. Mengele or Himmler, nor gas chambers or death trains. But the suffering from Global Warming may well exceed that of the Holocaust many times over.
I did not choose the images from a strictly artistic point of view. Not all paintings are masterpieces. Some are downright ugly. I choose them because of their emotional content and their impact, at least on me. I believe Earth will suffer major tragedies as it has in the past. Global Warming is one likely cause of such suffering, but probably not the only one factor. And, of course, Global Warming is already harvesting its first victims. It would be fantasy to think there is not a lot more to come.
Using the Holocaust for this post is not politically motivated. In fact, almost none of the artwork directly addresses the camps themselves or isolates the Jewish experience. The choice of the motif has nothing to do with the cheap shots recently fired about so called Holocaust Deniers, a phrase I find repulsive in the context of Global Warming.
This post is dedicated to the victims of the Holocaust. May no one ever suffer such pain again. The art work comes from The Center for Holocaust and Genocide Studies at the University of Minnesota. Please visit them using this link.
This blog, its design, text content (except quotes from others) and my own images and graphs are copyright © Leading Design, Inc 2006-2007. All Rights Reserved. I make absolutely no claims on images or quotes originating in other sources.
Let’s disregard the crackpots for a while and consider the saner views. I often have this déjà vu feeling about the serious opinions – I look at a Skeptic opinion and feel “I’ve been there”. Often, either side raises the same issues using the same data and research. Arguments are very similar. Only the ultimate conclusion mysteriously differs. Some of us surely have to look into the old time funny mirrors found in amusement parks. Or smoke the wrong kind of fags.
I am in complete agreement with the Skeptics on more than a few issues. For instance, I readily agree the climate is a complex issue with several layers of warming and cooling trends and cycles that are only partially understood. Parts of Global Warming are due to factors that mankind has little power over. I have little confidence in the complex forecasts presented, preferring to stick with known, verified evidence rather than dim assumptions. I do not buy any conclusions before I can verify them based on, preferably, my own analysis.
I view the Kyoto Protocol and the CERs as useless and inequitable in the current implementation. I think the IPCC reports contain too many political “mass committee” compromises to be truly effective. They are wide open to the critique of being politicized. I believe that current European initiatives are ambitious but perhaps motivated by commercial and political interests. The initiatives themselves are totally useless in defeating Global Warming unless the world follows. The Europeans know it, securing the high ground for future use.
But I view the possible outcomes entirely differently than the Skeptics. I believe Global Warming is real and the most significant and dangerous issue facing mankind. The Skeptics differ at that point. How can serious and knowledgeable people differ on such well researched questions? It seems Skeptics often quote well known facts and then reach a different conclusion without really proving why. Perhaps it is Divine Insight?
Shouldn’t it be simple enough to prove solar energy or cosmic rays are the main cause of the warming, if indeed that is the case? Tell me what about the origin of views such as: “manmade GHGs do not cause rising temperatures” and/or “earth will cool within a few years” and/or “temperatures were much higher in the past” and/or “the shape of Earth or its orbit is the cause”. Someone, please help me.
Where is the verification of all these claims? I have yet to see evidence supporting any of these points. Why is that? For that matter, do any of these raised issues have anything to do with resolving the problem? Do they actually matter?
In the fever of Fact Challenged Opinions and Name Calling, a few basics tend to be forgotten. We might actually be doomed if we don’t act real soon. Even most Skeptics acknowledge we do have a problem. We may already be doomed. So arguing about who is the Fascist is a bit too late. If in fact we still can win this war, the obvious question is how we get the right actions taken real soon. Every one with some understanding of the issue knows how to solve it. In fact, it is not even that hard to make Global Warming go away – unless we apathetically wait too long or let a few bullies stop us.
Why has a basic issue such as Global Warming become a polarizing item? In what way is it Socialist Extremism to read measurements from thermometers? Why does the Capitalist World feverishly oppose the very thought of Global Warming, considering there is a ton of money to be made? Why are Skeptics compared to SS concentration camp guards? Why are some Skeptics receiving death threats? Why are we plagued with a US President who is completely aloof of his own catastrophic policies? Why is he allowed to lead us further into the abyss?
Take two similar, not very distant, issues. In the 1960s a real concern was the pollution from sulphur dioxide and other cooling gases, causing acid rain and health issues. A little later, ozone holes showed it was a bad idea to dump Freon, aerosols and similar articles into the atmosphere. In both cases, many parts of the world simply did what was needed with no major fuss or any significant long term hardships. Emissions of these quite deadly gases were rapidly controlled. No one was called a Fascist or Maniac for supporting whatever belief one favored.
Perhaps the resistance to Global Warming has some roots in the following: I see a very strange trend occurring in many sectors of today’s world. It is one of increasing tensions, human rights abuses, government deceit and lies, unconventional arms races, highest level crimes, secret agendas, greed, religious terror and plain old fascism trying to sneak in.
The bottom line is a top level struggle for power, national and often personal, using very unethical terrorist style methods. It appears anything goes as much of the public is apathetically and silently standing by. Considering that, it may not be odd that Global Warming became merely a pawn in this frightening struggle. I generally do not buy conspiracy theories, but I do think all of the above fuels the basic human emotion of fear which is blinding a lot of people.
Europe fought at least 60 wars since 1300, averaging one every 12 years, most lasting several years. Perhaps wars were fought 1/3 of the time and a shaky peace held up 2/3 of the time. Casualties are in the hundreds of millions. No country avoided the slaughter; many were almost constantly in conflict. Germany and France lead the charge with England not far behind. Even Poland, the Swedes and the Danes threw their armies in the pot.
Following the collapse of the USSR, many countries reduced their military forces drastically to only support international peace keeping rather than foreign aggression against the home land. After all, who is the enemy?
Amazingly, in spite of the bloody times, Europe laid the foundation for western civilization with incredible feats in arts and industry. The history of betrayal, deception and secrecy is long and colorful. The Europeans are master plotters, negotiators and back stabbers. Here is a short list of events to keep in mind:
- The conspiracy to murder Julius Caesar in 44 BC – “Et tu Brutus”, “Help, Brothers”, “Villain Casca, what do you do?” No plea stopped the murder, no brother or friend interfered.
- Florence in the Renaissance – a study in betrayals, double crosses, power struggles. The Italian wars of early 1500s – power struggles, alliances, counter alliances and betrayals. The Republic of Venice – profiteering from the Crusades, exploiting trade controls, devious aristocrats, secret police, you name it.
- The plays of William Shakespeare – Betrayal, lust, power, egotism, murder and ambition a galore. Or what about Wagner’s Niebelungen Ring: 15 hours of mysticism, Greek drama, Jungian psychology nonsense, alleged socialist critique. This German high romance was favored by Hitler and the Nazis.
- The 1884 anti-Semitic conviction of Alfred Dreyfus by France based on falsified evidence. The conviction was engineered by the French High Command. Dreyfus spent 12 years on the Devil’s Island till being pardoned after Emile Zola’s intervention “J’ accuse”. He fought in WWI, ended up a Lt. Colonel with a Legion d’Honneur.
- The assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand and wife by Gavrilo Princip on June 28, 1914, marking the start of an escalation leading to WWI. Prinic was one of six Serb assassins in a madcap and bizarre event. Balkan terror started thousands of years ago and is still ongoing.
- The secret support from the Roman Catholic Church towards Nazi Germany, during and after WWII. The current Pope Benedict XVI enlisted in the Hitler Youth in 1941 and served in the German air defense. Pope Pius XII is widely known as the Nazi Pope with far reaching involvement in favor of the Germans before, during and after WWII.
- The Holocaust by no means being the only European anti Semitism tragedy. Pogroms occurred in Poland, pre-Hitler Germany, Spain, Britain, Switzerland and Romania, not to mention Ukraine and Russia. Anti-Semitism has a history of at least a thousand years in Europe.
- The European Jews not being the only ones persecuted. Romans (Gypsies), Armenians, Gays, the mentally ill or handicapped and many others suffered as well. Genocide and ethnic and racial cleansing are age old realities. Today, explosive tensions grow out of difficulties in assimilating new cultures such as “different” immigrants, labor and refugees.
- Hitler’s 1939 non-aggression pact with Stalin to divide Poland, Finland, Romania and others. Stalin ended up in chock on June 22, 1941 as the Operation Barbarossa attack by Hitler on the Soviet Union commenced.
- A wave of covert Communist spies originating in the 1930s at upper class English universities, in particular Trinity Hall at Cambridge. Known as the Cambridge Spy Group, John Cairncross, Kim Philby, Guy Burgess, Donald McLean, Anthony Blunt and Michael Whitney Straight all spied for the Soviets after rising to significant positions in the British civil service, including in the Foreign Service, MI5 and MI6. The Group was devastatingly successful. Several defected to Moscow after exposure. Oxford University produced its Oxford Spy Group but with far less success than the Cambridge Group.
- George Blake being another famous spy of the same WWII – early Cold War era, who apparently still lives in Moscow after a successful career for, among others, MI6. Sir Roger Hollis, one time Director of MI5 is a suspect spy of the same mold, as are Peter Ashby, Leo Long, Brian Symon, Goronwy Rees, John Vassall and Victor Rothschild. Quite likely, this is just the tip of the iceberg.
- The 1970s violent underground terrorist organizations operating in Germany, Italy and elsewhere – The Red Brigade, the Red Faction or the Baader-Meinhof Gang are the most infamous examples. The death toll wasn’t great but the terror factor was effective. Another terror organization, the Gladio, operated under the command of NATO and some national governments.
- The British fame for its political scandals: the 1912 Marconi scandal – corruption; the 1963 sexual/spy Profumo Affair that sent Jack Profumo from a Minister post to cleaning toilets at an East End charity; architect John Poulson bribed various politicians until exposed in 1972; the 1973 call girl scandal resulting in the fall of Cabinet minister Earl Jellico,; Liberal Party leader and MP Jeremy Thorpe lost his appointments in 1976 after a gay affair and shooting a dog.
- The more recent British scandals: Edwina Currie’s allegedly conducted a 1984 affair with PM John Major; Author and MP Jeffrey Archer lost his posts in 1999 due to various sex, perjury and fraud accusations; Scottish party leader David McLetchie resigning in 2005 after submitting false travel expenses; Liberal spokesman Mark Oaten stepping down after gay affairs in 2005; and finally, Tony Blair’s possible involvement in the 2006 Cash for Peerage scandal.
Deceptions, betrayals, scandals are not what we like to have in our neighborhoods. We may gawk over them as long as it happens far away to someone else. If they impact or approach our laird, we close the hatches, turn off the noise and hide in the basement. “The only good bad news is dead bad news. Turn it off, make it go away.” Fear suddenly becomes real.
It took Stalin a week of isolation in his private basement to admit the Germans actually were attacking him in 1941. Hitler hid in his bunker for weeks during the fall of Berlin, believing his armies would come to his rescue, plotting his fantasy strategies. It took the English decenniums to face up the fact some of their most trusted civil servants were Soviet spies. Some still can’t face the Holocaust. Caesar denied the threat of betrayal even as he died. Harry Truman would not believe Mount St. Helen would blow. It did. The Titanic was unsinkable. She sank.
The Decline of the Old World
The 1900-1914 years saw the last of an old world dominated by aristocrats, monarchs and Victorian influences. European Empires still thrived. Japan won the 1905 war against Russia and started its route towards Asian dominance that would not end for 40 years until it was commercially restarted in the 1950s. Communication devices thrived: the telephone went commercial; the wireless (radio) became increasingly common; the Zeppelin and scheduled steamboats contributed to globalization and trade. Civilization was leaping forward, faster and faster.
War, Social Revolution and Depression
1914 -18 and really into the early 1920s were overwhelmed by first WWI, then the deadly Influenza as well as the Russian Revolution. The German Weimar republic showed signs of democracy. Some countries allowed females to vote. Labor organizations were born. Empires started to crumble. Females entered war production. Things were changing course.
The rest of the 1920s saw hyperinflation, booming stock markets followed by collapses and the start of depressions. Prohibition in the US went up and eventually down, leaving gangster gangs behind. Social attitudes evolved away from Victorian norms to much more permissive behavioral attitudes. Many old authoritarian rules were demolished: Russian Tsars, German and Austrian Emperors, the powerlessness of the “under class”. The Old Way of Things kept crumbling.
The 1930s suffered the deepest depressions in modern times. Germany and Italy became Fascist states. The Soviet showed its true face in a series of famine driven mass murders and various other deadly human rights abuses to the tune of millions murdered. Germany started suppressions of Jews. Japan’s war against China intensified. Left wing republicans in Spain were annihilated followed by almost 40 years of Fascist government. President Roosevelt introduced the New Deal. Storms were clearly approaching.
Another War and the Final demolishment of Old Powers
1939-1945 was dominated by war in Europe and China. 1941-1945 saw the US become the leading Western warrior and eventual winner. The Soviets won the Eastern part of the war and quickly assembled an empire in Eastern Europe. The US dominated Western Europe and parts of Asia, including temporarily Japan. The Old Order and Imperialism and finally fell apart for ever. Fascism went into hiding.
In the late 1940s, the depression was long over and manufacturing capabilities were revolutionized. Rebuilding Europe took a decade and provided plenty of jobs, partly based on the Marshall Plan. Millions of returning warriors entered the labor and consumer markets. Economic growth followed. The first traces of the Cold War made an entrance. Nuclear weapons started their route to the costliest arms race ever. China is united under Mao. In about 30 years, everything changed. Few traces of the Old Order remained. All human guidelines were new and untested.
A Brief Lull and a Cold War
Apart from the Korean War, the French Indochina war, the Hungarian uprising and the Cuban Revolution, the 1950s were mostly a peaceful era of stabilizing the new values. Prosperity and civil calm blossomed. The Cold War thrived and provided economic growth in its arms race. Nuclear warfare was scary but accepted in a naive fashion (“Duck!”). Communist scares on one side (McCarthy and others) and democracy scares elsewhere (Stalin, Khrushchev) caused ripples, serious at the time but without real impact.
All Hell Breaks Loose
In the 1960s, concerns about explosive growth in populations were on the agenda. Man entered space. The Green movement was born. Civil rights became important and deadly. JFK establishes the Peace Corps. The Soviets crushed the Prague Spring. The War in Vietnam became a domestic battle ground and symbol in countless countries. Social upheavals erupted worldwide, in the streets and on the campuses. The French battled students and worker riots. Woodstock became a legend. Martin Luther King, John F. Kennedy, Robert F. Kennedy, Che Guevara and Malcolm X were all murdered. Mao’s Little Red Book quickly printed 600 million copies. Now we really had some challenges to face. The impact of the 1960s is still with us.
Terror, Oil Crisis and Pollution
The 1970s saw food supplies become an issue and pollution suddenly cost money. Greenpeace was founded. The Pill became commonly used. The 1970s also was the decennium of scarce oil and long waits at the gas stations. Suddenly the price of oil got close to its real value to the shock of a world. Nations went to war over fishery grounds. Intel’s first microprocessor hit the market. Pollution started to kill people in earnest. Aircraft hijacking mushroomed. Terrorism spread, in particular in industrial countries. The Munich Olympics Massacre became symbol of mindless killings. Elvis Presley allegedly died. Feminism took off. Gay rights became a movement. The rate of change continued its acceleration.
Environmental disasters, No More Cold War, Political Murders
AIDS started killing millions in the 1980s. Most whaling was stopped. The Bhopal chemical leak killed 10,000. The world turned conservative led by Reaganomics and Thacherism. Perestroika, Glasnost and Tiananmen Square became household words. The Berlin Wall fell. The Ozone Holes were discovered. The Chernobyl reactor blew up. Exxon Valdez ran into a reef. The notion of Globalization was popularized. John Lennon was murdered, as were Indira Gandhi and Olof Palme. The Asian Tigers conquered their place in economic history books. The US stock market suffered its Black Monday. Political Correctness was required. El Nino started creating chaos. The World passed yet another decade of horrendous change.
Greed, Me First, Genocides
By the 1990s, Global Warming popped up its ugly head in earnest. Politics moved left, yet capitalism flourished. The end of the Cold War reunified Germany. India and China started their meteoric ascent. Al Gore’s Internet connected the world as did PCs, CNN and cell phones. Much of Africa descended into civil wars. Genocides became an everyday word. Dolly the sheep was the first official clone. Genetically engineered crops went commercial. The EU was born out of EEC. Economies and dot coms boomed. Stock options and IPOs enriched a few. The Japanese bought most of Hollywood and others, eventually losing billions, ending their invincible air. Changes, changes, will they never stop?
Mutual Terror, Insane Wars, Global Warming, Exuberance, Un-Ethics
Today, in the mid to late first decade of the 2000s, we worry about extreme weather, pandemics and flooding. Social security is running out. Hideous foreigners invading our lands. Crazed but generally unknown or fictional terrorists kill our neighbors. Many obsess whether gay marriage is OK or not. We endured Enron, WorldCom, dot coms, 9/11, a mystical War on Terror and the strangest US President ever. Toyotas and Hondas slaughter Ford and GM. Government ethics fell in a black hole as did human rights. Torture was suddenly OK while stem cells were not. And of course, less taxes for the rich!
The Religious Right and the Neo Con movements gained in strength worldwide. Although some of those gains may have reversed, these people still polarize everything they touch. Black and White. With Us or Against Us. No Middle Ground. We Are Right, You Are Wrong.
The changes do not stop or rest, they fly by at a dizzying pace. Stress is everywhere, too many need antidepressants, sleeping pills, tranquilizers, Yoga, recovery centers, rehab, therapy, marathon runs, hypnosis, relaxation exercises, self help books, face lifts, tattoos, anti harassment rules, exercise machines, weight programs/pills/food, subconscious tape messages, reality shows, Tums, herbal treatments, nail enhancement, health spas, bleached teeth, botox treatments, Viagra, breast enhancement, Internet porn, perfect abs, alcohol, drugs and a lot more from the billions of dollar “Coping Industry”. Most of these items were completely unknown just 50 years ago, now they are crucial to our well being. Our brains truly must be cooked. This is progress?
Patterns I Don’t Like – Go Away
If you think about it, perhaps you’ll see a pattern in the madness. These up and down events were, and are, caused by the checks and balances present in any system being thrown out of sync. You have seen the graphs. Things were flat for a million years. Then by 1750, things started to head straight up, be it populations, industrial production, GNP, indoor plumbing, carbon fuels, emissions, concentrations, pollution, space travel, information overload and frenzy, commuting, extinctions, milk prices, IRAs and of course temperatures.
By the 1960s, things really caught up with us. Matters switched into overdrive. Ancient imbalances went critical and all hell broke loose. Who the heck are we to assume the old abuses would never have to be paid for?
No one likes things to be out of whack, out of control. If they are, then life is suddenly uncertain. The future is unclear. Fear is fueled. Denials are easy. “Everything is out of control, in particular, my control. Pile the bad news in the corner over there. Better yet, dump it outside, a few miles down the road. I won’t take it anymore. Go away.”
Tensions – US Approaching Fascism
George W. Bush and Dick Cheney are getting away with murder, literally. They also get away with breaking more laws than any White House duo in history, including such abuses as torture, illegal surveillance, violations of human rights and the avoidance of war criminal charges. The White House is implicated in infinite lies and routinely suppresses the truth on a wide spectrum of major issues.
Of course, part is just upholding a great, longstanding tradition in American politics: that of lying. FDR lied about his WWII plans. Harry Truman lied about the attack on Hiroshima. Eisenhower lied about U2 spy planes over Russia. JFK lied about the Bay of Pigs. Ford lied about JFK’s death. Nixon, isolated and drunk in the White House, regretted his lies but believed Watergate was an invention of his enemies. Reagan lied about the Contra Affair. Bush Sr. lied about taxes. Bill Clinton never had sex with that woman. George W. Bush is a serial liar.
Scooter Libby lied. Duke Cunningham lied. Tom DeLay lied. Colin Powell lied. So did Mark Foley, Bob Packwood, Spiro Agnew, Wilbur Mills, Gary Condit, Joe McCarthy and an endless array of grand government leaders.
More and more political and religious leaders are accused and convicted of crimes. I’ve shown the lists, including the one above, of individuals before. The abuses are not stopping. In March of 2007 alone we have the conviction of “Scooter” Libby (and by association, Dick Cheney). Alberto Gonzales is exposed as the destroyer of his own Justice Department in a ballet that is implicating the White House. Major damage controls and, you guessed it, more lies are underway.
The Walter Reed Army Medical Center scandal of March 2007 cost some Generals their jobs, but no one else apparently had a clue. Frequent but suppressed accounts of substandard treatments and facilities go back several years but were completely ignored. George W. Bush is currently “deeply troubled” but must have missed the moldy walls on his visits there.
Earlier, George W. Bush, in spite of plenty warnings, botched Hurricane Katrina responses for days and months if not longer, never admitting failure. “We’re fully prepared”, “I don’t think anybody anticipated the breach of the levees”, “Brownie, you’re doin’ a heckuva job”. Bush: on vacation. Cheney: on vacation. Bad phone lines. Lies. Failures. No accountability.
In 2001, it took George W. Bush and Dick Cheney hours if not weeks to face 9/11. They still do not, nor will they ever, understand 9/11. They are clueless about the meaning of terrorism. They believe the Muslim World collectively attacked the Towers and the Pentagon. So they declared war on Islam, under a thin veil of “terrorism”.
Check my War on Terror posts for details and many more opinions:
- Bad Strategies Lose a Bad War on Terror
- Consequences of a Lost War on Terror
- State of the Union – The War on Terror Death March
The truth is maybe a few dozen Mideast individuals were involved in 9/11 out of 414 million Mideasterners or 1.8 billion Muslims worldwide. 10 million Muslims live in the United States, none of which are known to be involved in 9/11 or terrorism. Now the number of Muslims detesting the United States has skyrocketed. Devastating two Islam countries facing civil wars for years to come do not make things better. New armies of terrorists make their bombs, strap them on and envision a next life rewarded with true virgins. The next lives of their victims are not known.
As the Bush and Cheney duo looked the wrong way two new renegade nuclear powers (to be) popped up. Then the duo support a nuclear arms race in India and Pakistan. As the whole Mideast is falling apart, war with Syria, Iran and North Korea are real possibilities.
Bush and Cheney refuse to accept or even acknowledge the reality of failures in Iraq, Iran, North Korea or Afghanistan. They hide the facts and live their fantasy while dismissing the urgent messages from those who know.
Never will they admit the lies, deceptions, mistakes, betrayals and ignorance leading to the Iraq invasion. They lie about going to war, about WMD, Saddam’s involvement in 9/11, terrorism, Global Warming, energy, over friendly lobbyists, special interests, industry and corporate pals, civil rights, human rights, US attorneys and CIA in an endless morass.
US Democrats and all Presidential candidates have shown their complacency. The Democrats are in power in Congress. Yet, no real action is underway in fighting Global Warming, stopping the Iraq war or rolling back Bush’s illegalities. Not one Presidential candidate has the guts to deviate from the official “support our troops” blasphemy. Support them by exposing them to death? By making them targets in a civil war of no meaning to any national interests (except to a few very rich companies)? Why are US soldiers forced to sacrifice their lives for the profits of oil companies?
The American people largely have turned a blind eye to these disgraces. In the past, such abuses led to protests – not any more: it’s just too many things to deal with in today’s society. No one can keep up. The four year anniversary of the start of the Iraq war resulted in some protest demonstrations. They rated maybe two paragraphs next to the Classifieds in the news.
Are you surprised Bush and Cheney are botching Global Warming? Are you surprised they falsify and suppress the truth about climate change both to the people and to Congress? Do you realize they single handedly can actually cause mass death? This may affect you.
No one will trust such leaders, their judgment, their ability to do the right things or their ability to protect rather than kill. The result? Fear. Add Global Warming to all the other messes and brains shut down. Most of us end up in protective denial, the closer we are to the horrors. “Enough is enough. Don’t call me, I’ll call you. Stay away from me. Go away. Adios Global Warming”. Some retreat into contrarian, “Skeptic” views and yell as loudly as possible “It just ain’t true”.
Will the US accept its Global Warming responsibility? Not with this President. Not with this Congress. Not till it’s too late. Or hopefully, not quite too late.
Tensions – Democracy Out, Totalitarianism In
Russia and several former Soviet Republics are slipping into Neo Fascism. Most early democratic reforms are gone by now. Old Soviet (or new) hard liners are back in power. Free press and media in general are history. Putin shows his KGB background.
Russia is building up its new weapon, energy, as a new way to hold Europe and others under the gun. Where the Warsaw Pact failed, the energy weapon might succeed. Russia will be back as a formidable power, this time backed by reality, not by central planning formulas. They will not be a democratic showcase.
Ukraine is a confused mix of Pro-Russia and Pro-Western influences. Georgia went through civil war ending up in the same ideological struggle as did many of the ex Soviet republics. Belarus remains a hard line outpost. Chetnya, of course, is simply a terrorist/freedom fighter war ground. All the ex Soviet Republics are in a tense struggle of fascism versus not democracy but pro Western or Pro Russian alignment.
Several Eastern European countries, long viewed as new born democratic stars, are slipping backwards towards the old hardliner school of politics. In the Czech Republic, the Communist Party holds an important swing vote, preventing stable governments. The President – Václav Klaus – maintains close contacts with the Communists with a background of corruption. Klaus, incidentally, recently jumped on the anti-Global Warming band wagon. Hungary is ruled by “Socialists”, in spite of a recent scandal involving the government lying to the people. The people rioted and forced the exit of the PM. Most Romanian politicians are former members of the Communist Party. Likewise, “Socialists” rule Bulgaria.
Iraq, Syria, Palestine prove beyond doubt the shortcomings of democracy. No one sees a democratic future in Iraq as once proudly, naively and groundlessly seen by Bush, Rumsfeld and Cheney. Few even believe there is a future Iraq. Iraq likely will end up split into various ethnically cleansed areas under control of Iran, Syria and Turkey. Iraqi oil revenues? That’s the real battle ground. My bet is on the oil companies.
Syria, one of the oldest civilizations on earth, is not known for democratic ambitions but plenty of militant policies. Neither is Iran or Turkey.
The Palestine Territories are a paralyzed mix of competing forces that make no sense to outsiders. Bush maintains victory is around the corner while infuriating every Arab state by blindly supporting Israeli power tactics, such as using cluster bombs on civilians. There is no stability in sight in any part of this region.
Global Warming will receive little attention in these countries. Russia and Eastern Europe may pay lip service but not much more. The Mideast with its highly polluting oil industry will look forward to CER subsidies but not drastic or even modest changes.
Tensions – Economic Warfare and Blackmail
China and India both evolve towards domination through unfair practices. Both claim the right to special entitlements simply by “or else” or “screw you” tactics. China uses its imaginary “one child” policy to defend its lethal – to the whole world – pollution of everything from the air to the deepest oceans. India argues along the same lines. Both ignore the fact they are subject to a heavily industrialized sector that should be treated the same as any industrial area. Then there is a huge non-industrial area that should be protected. This distinction is not on the table but is crucial to managing the Global Warming disaster both these countries are creating. A power plant is a power plant whether in Belgium, China or India. Equal treatment.
North Korea and Iran successfully blackmail the world using the threat of nuclear weapons. They insinuate warfare against neighbor countries, especially Israel and Japan. North Korea may have an ICBM capable of reaching US soil in the foreseeable future. They already have the rockets to hit Japan. Iran probably can target Israel while not yet having a war head. In fairness, prior US administrations did not do much to resolve these two threats. But Bush has dragged his feet for six years. It just proves to the world the vulnerability and weakness of the US as it struggles to source its war in Iraq. The question is who is next to overturn the nuclear cart?
Global Warming? Not a likely priority in these places by any measure.
Tensions – The Militant Right Wing Islamic
The Religious Right of Islam has a hold to varying degree in most parts of the Muslim world, supporting strict Islamic laws. The countries affected share the characteristics of any extremist country: tense international relations including isolation, hatred of the US and democracies in general, militant postures and, internally, human rights abuses and suppression of most modern life styles. Some support international terrorist groups such as al Qaeda, Palestinian Hamas or Hitzbullah in Lebanon and Iraqi insurgents.
The Iranian Supreme Leader is an Ayatollah who is the religious source of real power. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is elected President with some power but Iran is a theocratic country. Relations with Europe improved but are now marred by Holocaust denials and the nuclear issue. International relations are extremely tense. Relations with the US are practically nonexistent and subject to demagogic extremes and brinkmanship.
Other countries or factions maintain similar Islamic theocracy and practice hard line Islamic laws and customs. Examples include pre-invasion and the probable future Afghanistan (Taliban), Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Egypt, Pakistan, parts of Indonesia, Malaysia and Nigeria. Factions of war torn Somalia and many Iraq insurgents are led by religious Islam leaders. The strictness of the Islamic “purity” may vary. Often, there are mounting tensions within the theocratic country longing for a freer, more modern life style (e.g., Iran). The penalties due to poor international relations are significant and contribute to internal pressures. Yet, the religious power is very strong and will not go away.
One thing is clear: Global Warming will not be a concern of the ruling class in these countries.
Tensions Are Not Good for Me – Stay Away
“I need tensions like a hole in my head. I sure don’t need any more. Who are all these weirdoes piling it up on me? It used to be so simple. Apple pie and roast. Mummy in the kitchen. Fresh cookies. No tensions.”
The world these days is next door. Instant communication is everywhere and “all of it is bad news about things I don’t care about. I don’t want it. I already have my fears, my worries, my tensions and problems. Paying bills, not getting fired, staying healthy and providing for the family”.
“Now they say I cause Global Warming and earth will blow up. Thank you, but I already have a head ache. You’re last in line. I’ll never get to you. I don’t want to get to you. Arnold in California will make you go away. Besides, it’s freezing outside. Global Warming, huh? Nah.”
Let’s put the fear factor aside for a bit and look at some more tangible examples such as the IPCC and Stern Reports. It turns out that while almost all agree that these reports are terrifically fantastic, no one, except perhaps the EU internally, seems to agree on what to do except push the same old private agendas:
The Europeans (February 2007 Version)
- Take Jacques Chirac, President of France, who hosted the meeting in Paris. He, on the last day, promoted his own idea to create a new agency handling Global Warming in a manner more to his liking – partly a forum to insult the US, it seems. 45 nations, such as Algeria, Ecuador, Cambodia, Vanuatu, Seychelles, Gabon and Burundi apparently responded favorably to his proposal although its mission remains completely unclear. The UN responded that organizational changes are less important than actual actions.
- The Italian PM wants urgent global carbon taxes and promotes his own ideas of a new UN organization for Global Warming (see point above).
- Then, we have the Bush, President of the US, rejection of everything the meeting accomplished. Of course, the US boycotted the Chirac new agency idea as fast as it dumped the report.
- The new Conservative PM of Sweden declared that Swedish emissions are already so tiny that no further action was required but offered to send its compliance money to China. Sweden seems to have backtracked completely, in fact advocating tighter emission targets than EU in general.
- German Chancellor Merkel’s government, which holds the EU’s rotating presidency, has threatened to block an EU attempt to impose a general emission reduction on the auto sector, insisting the size of cars must be taken into consideration.
- EU Environment Commissioner Stavros Dimas called on Germany — Europe’s largest economy — to put more efforts behind its promises to combat climate change, saying the nation had failed so far to take a leading role in fighting global warming.
The Europeans (March 2007 Version)
- In late February, EU proposes 20-30% reductions in emissions by 2020 by its members and asks for others to follow the path. Proposals are ignored by the US, China and India.
- EU approves of the proposal at a Summit in March 2007.
- The UK unilaterally commits to 60% reductions by 2050.
- Presumably, the French and Italians individual proposals are now abandoned.
- These points will be addressed in the next sections.
- The Australian Ecology Minister stated that the Report’s science is important but does not add anything new [to convince Australia to comply with mandatory emission ceilings].
- China responded to the IPCC report by defending their emissions: “China has low per capita emissions and that developed countries must take responsibility for the damage they create.”; “As a developing country with a rapidly growing economy and a big population, to use clean energy would need a lot of money.”; China declined to say whether Beijing would be willing to place caps on its own emissions.
- The Indian government is not worried as of February 3, 2007. “It is too premature to talk of policy implications based on this report,” said Prodipto Ghosh, secretary, Ministry of Environment and Forests. He said the report has to go through several steps of scientific peer review before being translated into policy.
- “To avert the catastrophic effects of continued global warming, such as desertification of the Amazon rain forest, all countries both rich and poor must do a part”, Brazilian Environment Minister Marina Silva said. But then: “It is not pertinent to place environmental concerns in opposition to economic development and vice-versa.”.
- Kenneth Green of the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative think tank in Washington, allegedly sent a letter offering $10,000 to scientists and economists to “undermine” the panel’s report. Mr. Green complains he never used the word “undermine”. Is this a WamingGate deal? Mysteries and scandals abound.
- Sen. James Inhofe, R-Okla., the ranking Republican on the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee, said the U.N. report was written and edited by government officials: “This is a political document, not a scientific report, and it is a shining example of the corruption of science for political gain.”
Senator Inhole, R-Okla., always amazes me. Remember Baghdad Bob? He also amazed and amused me in a tragic manner. Then we have Le Président Glorieux Chirac (now retiring) who forgets that his own country is not complying with the emission requirements of the Kyoto Protocol. The French excuse is its heavy investment in nuclear energy which does not emit GHGs.
The French and Italian initiative may have died a peaceful death given the recent EU near unity on a passed proposal coordinating strict emission targets for 2020. Chirac leaving office contributes to unity. In late February 2007, the EU made public a plan amounting to serious CO2 emission reductions, such as 20% by 2020 compared to the 1990 levels or 30% if non-EU countries, notably the US, followed the lead. This is an important step if indeed it is based on real commitment. Some view the proposal simply as a bargaining chip in the face of an updated Kyoto Protocol going beyond the current limit of 2012 as well as an attempt to dominate the commercial market for emission control. The plan was passed at a March 2007 EU Summit.
The objections to taking action of most countries really say “We are not emitting very much compared to So-and-so and therefore do not need to, or cannot, reduce our miniscule emissions”. That is a completely flawed argument. Emission caps address specific carbon intensive practices and industries. They do not punish other parts of the economies, whether based on nuclear energy in France or the modest lives of billions of Chinese or Indian farmers. If the targets do affect complying areas of the national economies, then they should be corrected. If there are no targets for non-compliant sectors, then there should be.
There is no difference between dirty coal burning power plants in China, excessive use of air conditioners in the US, disastrous energy developments in Russia or the Arctic, gas guzzling Autobahn car races in Germany or forestry practices in Indonesia. These practices all emit GHGs which can be reduced below set targets. All should be subject to similar, equitable rules. Many practices are, or are intended to be, capped in Annex 1 countries; none are in Non Annex 1 countries. That is not equitable. Emissions are emissions. Whatever causes the emissions is similar everywhere. The profits are comparable. They should be treated consistently with out excuses based on some other economic segment.
The UK is getting real about Global Warming by outlining binding legislation to cut carbon dioxide emissions by 60% by 2050. The Bill also sets targets of 26-32% cuts by 2020. Parts of the opposition favor 80% cuts, or even 90%. Government assistance will enable insulation of 8 million homes over the next ten years. UK is on track to meet all Kyoto Protocol goals. Government officials stressed the UK’s leadership in the War on Global Warming with a clear eye towards the lack of leadership or action from the US.
Simultaneously, The UK enters direct cooperation with California, bypassing the inertia of George W. Bush. Arnold Schwarzenegger, Californian maverick, called Tony Blair an action hero for inspiring the introduction of a law committing California to an 80% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050. Mr. Schwarzenegger said: “It is very clear the Prime Minister has been a great inspiration to many, many countries all over the world… I think he is a pioneer, because he has had the guts to sign the Kyoto treaty and to show to the world that you can protect the environment and protect the economy at the same time.”
Have the Blair or California Governments gone insane? Won’t this madness bankrupt the whole world (or the US as Mr. Bush claims without proof)? Of course not, the UK hopes to make big money on its leadership. They have key parts of the technology to make reductions of this magnitude possible. So do others, including the EU, US and California in particular. If you view these emission reduction plans as some form of misbegotten charity, you are very much on the wrong track. Incidentally, California is not the only state bypassing Bush to enter overseas cooperation and to pursue independent Global Warming and energy policies.
And as I covered in the post “Sauerkraut, Bourgogne, Bangers“, the EU is continuing its path towards 20% emission reductions by 2020. An EU summit in early March 2007 approved the original proposal. More leaks of the upcoming April IPCC report about the consequences of Global Warming led to my post “The Bleakest Outlook Yet”. Optimistic those UN folks are not. Some of you might enjoy my take on Ann Coulter “To Ann Coulter” after she used the Faggot word referring to John Edwards, who, by the way, is looking to define himself as a Global Warming advocate. Also recently published, the main post “Just Too Many of You” deals with a variety of issues, most related to how Global Warming relates to populations or, more precisely, you and me.
If the world follows the initiatives of the EU, the UK and California, then the issue of Global Warming will be resolved in our – mankind’s – favor. If, on the other hand, the US, China, India, Indonesia and Brazil continues to destroy the world, then we face extinction.
That is where things stand. Tensions, ignorance, pressures, greed and envy, lies and deceptions, inertia and overloading and, not least, Modern Life. It’s a long list to overcome. Can it be done? Compare today to the Londoners during the Nazi Blitz. Think about the Hamburgians during the Allied fire bombings. Did you ever experience the Hungarian or Czech barehanded uprisings against the Soviet tanks? Consider The Tiananmen Square protests in face of massive troops and tanks? Did you see Boris Yeltsin single handedly preventing the return of Soviet hardliners? Do you remember the Civil Rights workers in Mississippi just 40 years ago or Rosa Parks 50 years ago?
Simple isn’t it. All we have to do is rise to the occasion. Of course, we may have to live a bit more frugally. There might be hardships. Perhaps it won’t go all my way. We may not even succeed. We are probably doomed. It’s hopeless. I can’t take it any more. Go away.
Let’s hope that’s not how it will play out. Mankind will pick up the ball and run. Don’t you think?
GlobalWarming:1 discusses why Global Warming happened, who and what causes it, ending up with a list of villains. It did not go into the consequences of Global Warming. There was no discussion of impacts on the oceans, the Arctic, Greenland, El Nino, ecosystems, the weather, tundra and ice packs. The Kyoto Protocol or the Stern reports or other Global Warming topics were not covered. That is yet to come.
GlobalWarming:2 covers two main subjects. The UN provides a real mixed bag of positive and negative influences on the fight against Global Warming. The positive is that they try, have some credibility and many resources. The negative is that they fail. The current versions of the Kyoto Protocol and its associated reports do not reduce emissions. The CER system causes more harm than good. Solutions exist but are not acted on. Industrial strategies and national policies do little to reduce Global Warming – in fact, the opposite is often true in spite of rhetorical lip service.
Global Warming:3 examines the basic root cause of our problem: rising temperatures. Is the increase real and does it matter? Is it natural or caused by man? Are the temperatures unusual compared to history? Do GHGs actually cause the increase? What can past temperature variations tell us about what we face today? Can you even trust the basic data and analysis of temperatures? The post answers those and other questions in exuberant detail.
GlobalWarming:4 notes that Global Warming is not the first disaster forecast ever done, published and hyped. There were many in the past and as a rule they failed. The disaster in question simply did not happen because extending some historical trend into the future does not work – trends change. So the question is – why is this particular doom and gloom outlook right? What is different this time? As you will see, plenty is different.
GlobalWarming:5 reviews the role and issues of population growth. This is a vital issue for future emissions as shown in GlobalWarming:1. Historically over the past 250 years, the explosive growth in populations explains two thirds of the increase in GHG emissions. The rise in personal carbon use must be reversed as must other issues related to unbalanced growth in populations.
The current GlobalWarming:6 probes why Global Warming turned into a polarizing mess. History plays a role. Emotions such as fear impacts judgments. Lack of perspective is limiting true understanding. Lack of knowledge and clouded judgments don’t help. Many agendas are hidden from view. Rarely in human history have so many ignored so simple requirements for no good reason.
GlobalWarming:7 summarizes some important and a few not so important opinions on Global Warming. Global Warming is a battle ground, galvanizing the left against the right, neo conservatists against liberals, the sane against those not quite sane, the religious right against evangelists, politicians against constituents, reactionaries against activists, bloggers against bloggers, late show hosts against ratings, journalists against circulations, spokespersons against skeptics and, not least, scientists against scientists. This post contains a small sample of the rare truth, accusations, biases, opinions and propaganda thrown left and right, up and down.
GlobalWarming:8 is perhaps the meat of this series. It gets into the details of what is happening right now in the some 25 different real life areas. The true impacts of Global Warming range from ocean bottoms to mountain tops, from oil fields to highways, from tundra to tropics and from farm fields to smoke stacks. These items are not forecasts, assumptions or opinions but verifiable hard facts. The picture is indicative of your, and my, future. The earthly signs get worse by the day.
GlobalWarming:9 paints three scenarios (not forecasts) of what might happen in the future. There are pessimistic, optimistic and middle of the road pictures. The three scenarios use simple, common sense assumptions, very different from the elaborate, multi million $ systems enjoyed by the UN, the Stern Report, EPA and others. The big systems rely on myriads of assumptions as input, many of which aren’t really known and/or subject to lots of complexity. I favor the KISS approach.
I’m by no means competing with the “big” studies or the smart people putting them together. I used to be a forecasting guru working for the UN, the World Bank, FAO, OECD, the EU and many Fortune 500 companies. I guess I have a right to an opinion. No one is required to consider my views.
I am completely nonaffiliated. No political party enjoys (or wants) my support. I have no axe to grind. I receive no monetary compensations, grants or sponsorships. There are no PayPal buttons on these pages. I have no obligations to fulfill. Office politics do not thrive around here. I promote no agendas except my own – the survival of us all. Occasionally, I put up some of the photos from my portfolios and my photo business.
GlobalWarming:7-9 will follow together with other commentaries and follow ups. Hang in there. The links below help you navigate this monster essay. It’s all quite important to your health.
Thank you. Karl
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