It’s easy to dismiss global warming. Florida is not under water. Record breaking snow storms howl down the US East Coast. Africans have not invaded Europe in search of agriland. Hurricanes aren’t the super disasters forecast. Parisians freeze to death. Pictures from Copenhagen show top politicians from Obama to Reinfeldt in climatic defeat. Data suggests temperatures have plateaued. IPCC reels from scandals. Himalayan glaciers will not disappear by 2035 as stated. Emails suggest scientists fake data to scare the innocent public and law makers into exorbitant spending.

The Troubles Of An Activist

It’s harder than ever to be a global warming activist, patron, believer or scientist. One has to endure sneers, shaking heads, raised eye brows from the ever present deniers. U.S. Senator Jim Inhofe (R-Okla.) boosts a premature “I told you so” into your weary ear. Thus Inhofe keeps Bush’s flame alive in the tradition of the 2003 declaration of victory in Iraq (“Mission Accomplished”). No longer is one is likely to be the life of the party, pouring out statistics on Antarctica’s ice cores. IPCC pay is nonexistent aCellist  On Top Of The Mountainnd the perks are stale. Neither Leno nor Letterman is calling you. Pushing this most boring subject won’t improve one’s sex life, driving one’s depression into uncharted waters.

This is far from the glory days of 2006 and 2007. Then global warming was almost hip. Now, though, one’s neighbors, spouses, bosses and therapists no longer believe one’s mission to save mankind is critical, sexy or hip. It is possibly slightly amusing in a patronizing way.

Comrade demonstrators pack their bags, heading for new horizons and fresher barricades. Nervous scientists switch seats. Lacking the people’s pressure, politicians do nothing to the joy of lobbyists. Perhaps you thought a Democratic President plus a predominately Democratic Congress would live up to the rhetoric splattered along the campaign track? Think again. Credibility and urgency vanishes and ignorance rules.

What happened?, the oh-so-out-of-date activist wonders.

Another Forced Fed Lecture

Are you old enough to have experienced the 1960s and early 1970s? Did you attend or embrace any of the following: Berkeley, Kent State, Chicago Democratic Convention, counterculture, social revolution, anti war, bra burning, Woodstock, LSD, Janis Joplin, Bay of Pigs, Vietnam, May 1968 French upraising, A Flowery Sixties Protestthe Prague Spring and “I have a dream”. MLK was not the only one with a dream. Wilderness Rights, Voting Rights, Civil Rights all came to or matured. The Sixties spelled energy, experiment, emotion and exorbitance. Real change actually happened.

Then, being an activist almost surely improved one’s sex life. In fact, people actually had sex lives after the constricted Fifties. The pill shook the World. The party scene didn’t care about conversation paralysis. Many were too stoned to know where their mouth was. No need to be the life of the party. No longer was it necessary to know which fork went with the soufflé or how to dab one’s lips after taking the caviar. Instead, decibels, drugs, dripping sweat and drum beats filled the communication channel of the cults.

Dreams Die Too

It did not last. The spirit burnt out. Hair was cut, suits were bought. Microsoft stock taught us how riches I Am Mad As Hellbeyond imagination were available without any effort whatsoever. Class action lawsuits blossomed to save us all from credit card fees, gas additives, video games, bad language, marijuana and prescription contraceptives. Welfare mothers bloomed. Welfare kids did not. Housing booms, one after another, financed glorious retirements in Florida, Arizona and Santa Fe. Hand me the riches without effort, sweat, payment or skill. How cool is that?

The spirit of the Sixties became just a mirage. Gains were lost. Idealism was stomped on, laughed at and out it went with the bath water. Revolutionaries grew fat, rich and now worshipped Reagan, the Bakkers and Fondue. Purpose was replaced by Surf and Turf, All-you-can-eat smorgasbords and Infinite Salad Bars. Bras were no longer burning. Damn the poor, mentally ill and homeless. Hail Ecstasy In The SixtiesWall Street, Silicon Valley, Exxon and Eight-Tracks. Polyester was the coolest thing after Afro hair, Barbie and ABBA. The Commies mellowed. America became the Number One terrorist organization.

We all have issues to deal with beyond global warming. Finessing money from the government is perhaps the top issue. Dumping clunkers, getting subsidies for this or that, building bridges to nowhere and enabling GM to remain the last dinosaur standing is the tune of the day. Americans become millionaires at a record pace. The Japanese kill whales. The Canadians kill baby seals. Africans kill Africans. Thy neighbor steals from you just as you steal from your neighbor.

Grim, isn’t it?

Why bring up ancient history? It’s because not only do dreams but so do causes that sometimes are very significant. The war to end all George W. Bush In A Tender Momentwars – the First World War of 1914 to 1918 – led to several far reaching developments as peace was restored. Democratic governments spread, even in Germany. The League of Nations was formed. Civil rights made some inroads. But in just a few years, any gain was demolished, directly leading to World War II that killed 75 million people. To say that idealism disappeared is an understatement. The result was devastating.

In the Sixties, there was idealism. Today, idealism is not among the top characterizations of our life style. That’s why we run into Internet crazies, housing bubbles and financial disasters. It is the reason we can’t deal with global warming, health care or poverty. We let Bush and Cheney rape most human rights for eight years with close to zero protest. Most think polar bears and whales are cute but let the killing go on.

Hope Is Not For Sissies

Then, once in a while, a reminder pops up to suggest realities are, after all, more significant than ignorance. Occasionally, we catch a glimpse what could be if we simply let it. Credibility of a lost cause can be restored if the effort is spent. A spot of hope lights up, suggesting truth can prevail over laziness. These little signs surface when we least expect them. Antennas need to be perfectly tuned to pick out The Icebreaker Polar Starthe good from the trash.

I am referring to an article about ice breaker maintenance, not exactly on the front page. The story covers a press conference about USCG Polar Star’s refit to upgrade crew quarters and dump an ancient computer at a cost of $62 million over 2 1/2 years. The Todd Pacific Shipyards in Seattle, WA, will employ 250 workers on the project.

Both Seattle newspapers carried this rather mundane story. Some of you wonder why a basically ice free United States of America needs heavy duty ice breakers that cost $750 million each. That’s another debate, not due here or now. Suffice to say the US possesses only three of these babies dwarfed by, say, Russia’s seven nuclear super breakers.

It Ain’t Charity

The melting Arctic exposes enormous deposits of energy, minerals and ore as virgin land is freed from ice. Vital interests, strategic values and suddenly discovered traditional heritages must be defended The Gun Boat SMS Panthervigorously. Grab what grab you can. Santa, drop dead. Buy a Manhattan condo.

The ice breakers of today and the future do not just break ice but practice gun boat diplomacy. Gun boats intimidate opposing parties with its mere presence in some disputed area without using weapons per se.

The US famously practiced gun boat diplomacy in the Taiwan Strait at several occasions in the Fifties, protecting Taiwan from invasion by China. Of course, the overwhelming might of today’s US Navy acts as an everyday form of global gun boat diplomacy. But aircraft carrier groups are useless in the far North, hence the need for the ice breakers.

On My Command, Turn Left

Somewhere the focus of the Coast Guard press conference changed. The subject of global warming popped up, not really to the pleasure of the Coast Guard brass. Disaster In The IceBut ice breakers go where the ice is. Ice is easily found in the Arctic and the Antarctica. Given the mission, these guys carry a great deal of on-location, unique credibility about the far North and South conditions.

Ice breaker crews enjoy spending some eight months out of the year in ice. These guys generally carry a reputation of sobriety, reasonably clear minds and a relative lack of political ambition. They have seen, broken and smelt more salt water and ice than other men or women on Earth. They are not scientists eager for grant money. They don’t act in reality shows or receive Nobel Peace Prizes. They are sailors who break ice and cruise the seas. That’s it.

Finally, A Point Of Sorts

Back to the press conference and the actual point, you plead. Impatience rears its head. Suspicion blinks its pink hateful eyes. Here goes. Thad Allen, Commandant of the Coast Guard, declared himself agnostic on the subject of climate change. Not surprising since military leaders are required to be agnostic on After the Ice Meltsalmost any subject. Those turning non-agnostic soon take up golf and discover they have kids, one or more wife and assorted dogs. Suddenly the dreams of another eight months in polar resorts are gone. Take the General Supreme of all WWII Generals, Douglas MacArthur who was summarily fired by Harry Truman because the General was not sufficiently agnostic on the subject of nuking Commie China.

This particular admiral, Thad Allen, may not have spent much of his 38 year career surrounded by breaking ice in favor of a more normal sailor life. But he is, as an example, one of the few officials emerging from the Katrina disaster with an elevated reputation. That, certainly, is quite an achievement.

The admiral continued to state:

  • “Over the past 3 ½ years more ice-diminished every year in the summer. And that’s changing how the Coast Guard looks at the region. For a long time, all we did in the Arctic was science,” he said.
  • But now with more open water, there is increased viability for eco tourism and shipping. Further, “the fact that 22 percent of the world’s oil and gas reserves are in the arctic region — this has become an area of extreme focus.”
  • Asked if the Coast Guard is operating on the premise that climate change is a certainty, Allen said, “Well, you know I’m not a scientist, I’m a sailor. And the most PC way for me to say this is I’m agnostic to the science. There’s water where there didn’t use to be and I’m responsible for it.
  • “Certain things are undeniable. The Arctic ice cap is shrinking. The parameters of our oceans are changing. Temperature is changing. Salinity is changing. We have carbon dioxide that’s entering the water column right now making carbonic acid that has a significant impact on shellfish and the food chain. These are all undeniable.”

There you have it. One single key word: “Undeniable”. Spoken by, according to eye witnesses, a sober, clear minded and sincere admiral with far more real life blue water credentials than scientists in their labs, amateur skeptics in their parka lounges, brain-dead senators from Oklahoma and an ex-president finally able to let someone else deep-six this climate change thing.

Two Alaskan Republicans

It may be that some of the admiral’s comments were inspired by the opinions of U.S. Sen. Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska, who also has some firsthand knowledge of the North. A moderate Republican, she was a major sponsor of the Polar Star refit. She wants to build an Arctic deep water port to serve the military, the offshore oil and gas industry, general shipping and tourism. Exploitation, here we come.Sarah Palin Killing A Caribou Stand aside, please. We got holes to drill.

There is nothing moderate about Sarah Palin. This most Northern of all global warming deniers manages to stand to the right of even Dubya. “We need to drill, drill, drill,” she told the Wall Street Journal. Ecology be damned. This gal’s wildlife policy centers on the right to shoot wolves from the air. In fact, shooting anything is cool with her. Polar bears, drop dead. Caribou, get lost. Her attachment to the Arctic is spelled Arctic Cats, a brand of snow machines that she promotes no doubt out of charity. How does she spell the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge? “Drill, drill, drill”. Did I mention the slyest of ignorance?

Hails To The Chief

Walrusses On Melting IceThe Coast Guard admiral knows well that his “Undeniable” statement will not create a better world any time soon. If we are lucky, eventually someone will show up with the will, the answers and the power to tackle the quagmire swamp labeled global warming. That someone will yell “Which part of “Undeniable” don’t you get?”

After all, some manipulate the “Undeniables” to look like “Deniables” and vice versa. Either way, to cynics it is just the means to suit one’s goals. As any skeptic knows, denying the undeniable is a game that can be played as long as it pleases you. Ask Dubya and other sellers of snake oil.

Undeniable Means Undeniable. Get Used To It.

Wait, There Is More!

If the concerns about ecology are the good news, there is also bad news. Global warming is not the only threat tilting the scale. The Arctic may the next Ultimate Border to be as exploited as, once about a time, the US West. More recently, Alaska is the Far Border undergoing massive exploitation. Far North Pipelines

Consider, say, Love Canal just by the Niagara Falls with polluting roots going all the way back to 1890. It took 26 years of FEMA Super Funds to clean up some of that mess. If Exxon Valdez had done its thing in any of the Northern Passages, that oil would have circled Earth, bourn by prevailing currents that do not exist in the relatively protected Prince William’s Sound. Twenty years after the disaster, 26,000 gallons of oil remain on and inside the close-by shorelines.

Thad Allen’s first point concerned global warming. Ice is disappearing, salination is changing and species are dying or migrating. As tundra thaws and ice melts, billions of tons of methane and other gasses are released. Inuit villages sink in mud. Roads disappear. Scientists can’t decide if this is the end of the world or not. Ask the inhabitants of Banks Island in Canada’s High Arctic what they think.

Steer North, My Lad

Allen’s second point is not to be missed. He mentioned 22% of Earth’s oil and gas reserves are located in the Arctic. That is quite an understatement. Both the Northeast and Northwest Passages above RussiaOil Spill From Sinking Carrier and Canada, mostly, are becoming navigated. Historically, both passages were almost completely closed year around. Many a brave explorer saw his ship caught in an iron grip of ice that slowly crushed the vessel, leaving the men to a cold and deadly ice level existence.

Currently, both passages are open part of the year as the sea ice retreats. Neither passage is easily tackled even today. Ships need reinforced bows to avoid the fate of the explorers whose trails they follow. There is no doubt, though, that there will be commercial shipping in the far North passages.

Extreme Focus

The Nortwest And Northeast PassagesThe impact of the Northern passages opening up is almost beyond comprehension. The first major impact concerns shipping. Some of the shipping through the Panama and Suez canals would move to the passages with possibly major savings in fuel. As shipping routes change, the political issues explode. With the passages frozen over, political concerns were minor. That will not be the case in the future. Allen addressed this when he said the North not would but IS an “area of extreme focus” and it is the real reason Polar Star gets a $62 million to take up station in the North.

The military value of the Arctic Ocean all the way to the North Pole is long established. It has long been the hide and seek confrontational grounds of US and Russian/Soviet nuclear subs. In the summer of 1958, the USS Nautilus reached the North Pole under the ice, entering from the Bering Sea and surfacing just north of Greenland. Nuclear subs have trafficked the area ever since.

Greed, Anyone?

Then there is the matter of huge values being exposed as frozen ground retreat. With the passages Spitzbergen Coal Minebecoming navigated, it is feasible to reach these new resources and retrieve them. Oil and gas will be the first target. Fishery and wild life will follow. Eventually, there will be agriculture and forestry. Tourism will blossom according to breathless cruise directors.

Mining is possibly the greatest ecological threat as well as one of the most irresistible resources. There are known deposits of diamonds, gold, coal, nickel, lead, zinc and uranium. Some of these resources are already exploited, usually at a low level and with mixed results. But the vast areas suddenly exposed will change conditions dramatically. The full impact isn’t known but is likely to be huge.

Who owns the Northern riches? The Inuit? Fat chance. Denmark/Greenland, Norway, Sweden, Finland, Russia, the US and Canada are not giving any possible claim away. A traditional 200 mile limit leaves huge areas unclaimed. No one owns the North Pole although the Russians placed their flag at its bottom, 14,000 feet below the surface. Trucking On The Ice

China recently entered the race. “China is slowly but steadily recognizing the commercial and strategic opportunities that will arise from an ice-free Arctic,” said SIPRI researcher Linda Jakobson of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, “China is at a disadvantage as it is not an Arctic state but is still keen to have the right to access natural resources.” Beijing has decided to build a high-tech icebreaker for polar expeditions to be operational near 2013.

The territorial claims are not well established since till recently they were mostly worthless. Suddenly awakened governments now compete to extend the claims. The matter is negotiated in several multinational bodies, notably the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea and the Arctic Ocean Conference. Meanwhile, the Exxons and Statoils of the world will rape what they can without thought to the consequences or obscure national claims.

Just Don’t Drink The Water

Unfortunately, these areas, so likely to be exploited to the limits, are extremely vulnerable ecologically, being stripped of protection. An industrial attack is sure to cause catastrophe not only locally but in your Air Currents Carrying Polutio9n To The Poleneighborhood. Currents will carry the disaster from the Atlantic to the Pacific and then back to the Atlantic, picking up poisonous strength by the mile.

The Arctic Ocean controls the climate in most of the Northern Hemisphere. Upsetting that utterly complex balance is not a good thing. At the present, much of the Arctic is pristine but highly toxic pockets are spreading. The Russians, for instance, dump their nuclear waste in Arctic waters.

The Arctic haze at high altitude is the main reason Arctic temperatures are on the rise. The heat trapping haze is made up of pollutants originating in CO2 producing sources thousands of miles away. Humans and animals suffer from PCB accumulations.

One Day After Allen

The obscure Polar Star announcement by Thad Allen didn’t go as unnoticed as its modesty suggests. The next day, Canadians raised an eye brow or two. William Rompkey, a Liberal senator, said the U.S. Far North Canadian Inuit Villagegovernment’s $62 million plan to reactivate the 34-year-old, 130-metre Polar Star shows the emerging urgency in the Northwest Passage.

Canada need more ships in the region quickly, or faces “chaos” in the Northwest Passage. “If we’re saying this is our territory, we’ve got to be there,” Rompkey said. “Or we’ve got to stop saying it’s our territory.”

The Canadian government announced plans in 2008 for a new, $720-million polar-class icebreaker. But a contract for such a vessel has not been signed. At best, this polar class ice breaker will be operational by 2017. Canada does not have the equivalent of the Polar Star. Both the US and Canada have far less capabilities than Russia or even Finland.

Post Mortem

Wildlife in Pruhoe BayHere is a curious fact. Both Seattle web papers (The Times and the PI) carried at least three different versions of this not very remarkable article, published within hours. The later versions consistently downplayed the admiral’s statements on climate change. You tell me? Is this a coincident or not? In the bad old days, one would need to check for Cheney’s presence. Or is Palin lurking behind that corner over there?

Meanwhile, stay cool.

Karl

Why should anyone care about the wackiness of a few deniers of Global Warming? What’s the big deal about a few morons dragging a big issue into a morass of non-truths, voodoo and plain boredom? These fools succeeded in turning the potential life-and-death issue of Global Warming into pettiness about Al Gore and, more importantly, about scientists in general. They hail the lunacy of Senator James Inhofe and bless the ignorance of George W. Bush. They echo the saintliness of an oil industry deriving massive, record profits from raping Earth. They applaud the smokestack plants burning cheap coal, as long as such plants are not in their backyard. They are the deniers.

Vague, irresponsible and stereotype statements by the skeptics challenge the existence of Global Warming. Never mind their statements lack any objective support. They still make possible the foot dragging of the US Senate and Congress. Most deniers camp out in the Republican Right wing. They should be out in the cold, but aren’t. The Democratic dominance in the Senate and Congress produced nothing substantial. Even the Supreme Court rulings are ignored. Nothing, nada, nichts, ingenting, rien.

The Siberian tundra is no longer frozen but spews untold, catastrophic tons of green house gasses into the air. The Northwest Passage is suddenly navigateable. Antarctica will calve ice sufficient to raise ocean levels by a meter or so. Florida may not like that. Alp ski resorts stand without snow. Glaciers disappear. Coral reefs die. Intuit villages sink in mud as perm freeze melts. Greenland becomes an agricultural Mecca rather than an ice chest. Untold masses of species disappear, under the water and above. Hoax? Not so.

The Bush administration deep-sixed Global Warming by lying to the World about the findings of its own scientists. China, India, Brazil, Indonesia and scores of others joined the US in putting the perceived threats to limitless economic growth before the safety of the world. Let nothing stand in the way of more SUVs for the lucky. Support your local gas station. Surely we must thirst for mineral water from far-away Italy or France.

The Copenhagen Climate Talks are fast approaching. Expectations have moved up a few degrees from absolute zero as Obama promises to show up in person, as will, maybe, the Chinese Premier. Obama carries a lunch box of toothless promises to reduce to US green gas emissions. China generously may promise to release some data on its world leading pollution. Observers announce such data is likely to contain more lies on top of current lies. The EU dispatches a Global Warming denier as its representative.

No one expects progress any time soon towards progressive action. An agreement to replace the flawed Kyoto agreement is not in the stars. After all, Kyoto is wildly profitable to some of the worst polluters. Obama’s hoax proposals aim at reducing criticism of US foot dragging. They mean nothing as the Senate and Congress remains locked up in its deepfreeze of Global Warming.

A fair share of the pessimism expressed above comes from the might of the deniers. They managed to put sufficient scare into the American people and government. Every argument put forward by these crackpot rednecks has been disproved over and over but keep popping up like a California brush fire. Lunatic misfits keep throwing lighted matches at the brushes. California burns at the will of a few token arsonists. The World might burn at the will of token deniers. Never mind logic, science or sanity. Let it all burn.

On this day of November 30th, 2009, Scientific American published “Seven Answers to Climate Contrarian Nonsense“. You owe it to yourself and your kids to read this article. Do it now. Then read the comments associated with the article. Almost all comments appear to be written by core deniers. Let it burn, no matter why, where, when, who or how. For example (SA is Scientific American):

  • “Global warming has been demonstrated to be a hoax with fabricated and fraudulent data. SA knows this, but instead of dealing with the MAJOR issue of widespread scientific fraud and corruption, instead decides continue to pretend the hoax is real. It is obvious that SA is nothing more than a political propaganda publication.”

Like the above, unsubstantiated non-truths and self serving distortions have swept the world many times before. Africans are born to be slaves. Women are unfit to vote. There is but one God. The rich are better than the poor. I am better than you. I am not an ape or fish. Kill thy neighbor. Inferior groups – be it Jews, gays, gypsies, bloggers or scientists – should be whacked once and for all. Burn the books. Let it all burn. Help us all.

Karl

We’re all happy to own, sort of, a share of GM or whatever it’s called today. Buying, sort of, Detroit, Wall Street and many a bank will no doubt be the greatest thing since sliced shoes. Some of us would have preferred to keep our house, job and car but that’s the way the buck rolls. There is no use whining. Remember “Yes We Can”? Of course we can. What is happiness anyway?

The financial crisis resembles a black hole. Black holes possess a gravitational field so powerful that nothing can escape its pull. The hole has a one-way surface into which objects can fall, but out of which nothing can come. By fall, Obama will have plugged this particular financial black hole by dumping all your money into it, or so he says. Time flies and fall is almost upon us. Obama in his tower may be more clairvoyant than you and I, but my pocket book still complains about an empty stomach. That hole is still here in spite all the good work by Obama, shoveling your money into it by the trillions.

Not every genius agrees with the generosity of Obama. I don’t mean ever-moaning, fat cat Republicans. Of course they disagree. I think of the prevailing, foggy as always, opinions of Nobel Prize (or not) economists. Generally, they point out that any bailout or relief effort, no matter how big, will be much too small to have an impact while being insanely too big, causing disastrous events such as hyper-inflation, fascism, divorces and reduced grants for Nobel Prize professors. In other words, the relief package is too small while being much too big. Got that? Me neither. That’s why we’ll never get that Prize.

Clunkers

Obama wants you to trade-in your old clunker for a brand new Eco-Green vehicle. Clunkers include your Cadillac Seville, BMW 8, Nissan 300ZX, Porsche 968 and Toyota Supra. Obama recommends super-green replacements such as Cadillac SRX, Chevrolet Express Cargo, Chevrolet Silverado 1500, Dodge Ram Pickup 2500, GMC Savana and the Toyota Tundra. A mass of rules apply to clarify this eco-friendly initiative.

The old clunker faces immediate execution though crushing or shredding at a designated disposal facility, at the pleasure of the dealer who in folly accepted your poor old car. Maybe more than a few clunkers jump the fence and gain a new life as NYC or Cuban cabs. Perhaps your kid will buy it back with a McDonald’s paycheck. Often, killing off the old and the frail doesn’t quite work out as expected. Ask any Cuban driver. Remember the fate of Heinrich Himmler.

Of course, you will have to pay with taxes for this generous and forward looking idea to the tune of $4,000 a clunker, and up. To be sure, you’ll watch your neighbor trade in all six of his Cadillac’s, gaining some $25,000 at your expense. Meanwhile, you’re stuck with the full lease on that brand new Toyota Prius you patriotically bought last year. Timing is everything, Obama mentions, “Yes We Can”. Of course we can, but it would be nice if perhaps we had a say in the matter.

Incidentally, the $4,000 clunker trade-in could buy you two (2) Tata Nano, fully paid for. The same money could also pay for two all-electric 4-seater Tara Tiny (top speed 43 mph, range 62 miles, operating cost 1/5 of gas fueled cars). Why not one of each? Unfortunately, such as deal won’t be available for a while – the Indian manufacturers are scrambling to meet Indian demand and aren’t currently looking towards the US market. One might wonder why GM is completely incapable of producing a $2,000 car. Considering higher labor cost and higher standards in general, what about a $5,000 vehicle? I guess not. The tiny Smart Fortwo goes for almost $12,000 which is about as cheap as it gets in the US. A Segway (12 mph top speed, 20 miles range) sets you back $5,500, air conditioner not available.

In short, you sell the clunker while actually buying the thing through taxes. Then you pay so the dear old thing can become a tangle of shredded recycle materials. Top it off with a brand new, overpriced car from some company unable to grasp the basics of plus and minus. Are we all chasing our tails?

Here’s to success, sort of. In six days, the clunkers program chewed up $1,000,000,000.00, reaching the approved spending limit. 225,000 clunkers go to clunker heaven and an equal amount of green cars will hit the road. The program is on hold at the moment (late July 2009), looking for more funding.

Convert 225,000 clunkers to new green cars. It affects only less than 0.1% of the US car inventory. There may still be 10 million clunkers on US roads. Don’t look for a meaningful reduction in pollution, safer traffic or better looking parking lots. Things will look pretty much the same, except in the eyes of Obama and his spin machine.

Depression

Letting those clunkers die in peace, here’s a reality check. A recession is generally defined as two or more successive quarters of negative growth. Presently, that applies to many countries around the globe. A GDP drop of 10% or a recession lasting for several years is called a depression. Here is a Wikipedia description of a depression:

  • “Considered a rare but extreme form of recession, a depression is characterized by abnormal increases in unemployment, restriction of credit, shrinking output and investment, numerous bankruptcies, reduced amounts of trade and commerce, as well as highly volatile relative currency value fluctuations, mostly devaluations. Price deflation or hyperinflation is also common elements of a depression.”

That is depressing, to be sure, and unfortunately very real. Recessions are common and happen about every 3-5 years. Depressions occur every 20-40 years on the average. As an exception, the last hundred years only produced one major depression: the great depression of 1929 -1939. Two World Wars starved off further depressions. We may all be excused for being out of touch.

Only history will tell whether the current crisis is a mere recession or a full blown depression. At worst or best, depending on your point of view, it could mark the end of capitalism, democracy and many a marriage. Covering the issue, the observant elite, such as Conan O’Brien and 360 Anderson Cooper will amuse us for years to come. Clever, or not, bloggers will pipe in with great enthusiasm. The rest of us will not care about the fine print which may not be the best game plan. After all, this is your chance to get a subsidized Kia Soul or to dump your mortgage to end all mortgages on your neighbor.

Economics

The US GDP shrunk by 6.3% in late 2008, followed by a 5.5% drop in early 2009. The 2nd quarter of 2009 continued down by 1%. The US economy has declined for four quarters, a continuous drop last seen during the Great Depression of the thirties.

Many other countries share the same deep hole: UK is off 5.6% year-over-year. Germany was down almost 4% early 2009 but may be recovering. Spain is suffering an unemployment rate of 18%. France, Italy and Spain are down by 1% or so. Ireland is off 6%, Sweden down 5%. Japan GDP is down almost 13% and Iceland is off 12%, Lithuania off 24%, Ukraine down 9% and Russia down 2-3%. Asia is slowing drastically but is perhaps still in the black. OPEC and oil and gas producers see huge declines.

Dubai and East Baltic house prices are off about 40%, worse than the crushing 24% drop in the US. Real estate prices in central London are down by 15-20% with more than a few owners wishing they never had heard of Notting Hill. With financial fat cats scrambling to get out of town, Manhattan real estate is in for a beating. Sales of $5 million homes are reportedly slower than watching grass grow in Antarctica.

That is an astonishing array of synchronized red. Often in the past, recessions have been localized or at least lagging each other. One country is up, the next one down but smoothing the overall effect. This time the house of cards is tumbling down simultaneously all over the world. Just about every major economic indicator around the globe has hit record lows at about the same time.

Every one of those indicators affects our lives, one way or another. It might be hard to believe that the melt down of Icelandic banks and the catastrophic state finances of Lithuania will affect you. Not so. It does affect you in a confidence driven world. That Hong Kong fund manager will see the headlines of Iceland crashing and promptly dump every UK share in his portfolio. Then the Pound will drop and the dollar go up, hurting wheat exports from Western US, dropping the peso considering the money inflow from migrant workers in the US West took a dive.

To some, the effect is more dramatic. 1.2 million Swedes placed their savings in fast growing East Europe funds. Today, those savings are off 60% in value. The overall value of Icelandic stocks is down by 90%. The cost of the Icelandic meltdown is close to 75% of its GDP. Perhaps 300,000 UK savers see their Icelandic assets disappear as do 120,000 Dutch, all pending actions by various governments far beyond that of Iceland.

Recessions, depressions, famines, swine flues and Katrina’s are hardly unique events. The swine flu related influenza of 1918-1920 killed about 75 million and infected 500 million more. Bengali cyclone flooding kills 100,000 on a regular basis. The 2004 tsunami death toll was 225,000. Katrina is hardly in the same league with a toll of about 2,000. 9/11 killed 2,974. By contrast, the Rwanda tribal war of a few years ago killed almost a million. The recent Darfur war killed 400,000 and displaced 2,000,000.

In 1923, Germany issued two-trillion Mark banknotes. Postage stamps had a face value of fifty billion Mark. In 1946, the Hungarian National Bank issued bank notes in the amount of 100 quintillion pengÅ‘ (100,000,000,000,000,000,000). Recently, Zimbabwe’s annual inflation rate reached 89.7 sextillion (1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000)) percent.

On the other hand, green gas emissions from some fourteen GM plants will shortly go to zero. Titanic’s New York docking fees are null. Unemployment instantly went to zero in Hiroshima on an August day in 1945. So did employment. Trade Center elevator maintenance cost is zero. In one single day, some 26,000 Lehman Brothers employees walked out the door, never to return. Their employer declared they could not pay back the $770 billion they owed and walked out the door, never to return.

As you see, real time events progress far faster than the responses, bailouts and clunker programs devised by governments, homeland security forces, local police and Greenpeace. Events are crushing, sudden forces. Officials such as FEMA (“Brownie, you’re doing a heck of a job”) can only react to the unexpected. They never seem to be on top of anything, whether providing disaster relief (“Thanks for the update. Anything specific I need to do or tweak?”) or dressing properly (“Tie or not for tonight? Button-down blue shirt?”). All Quotes, thanks to Michael Brown, were made as thousands died in New Orleans.

Your financial woes are sure to disappear. Your beloved wife will stop nagging you. A husband will end his obnoxious ways. IRS will stop harassing you. Parking tickets may be excused. You won’t have to get up in the morning to face that hopeless job. One day your troubles will be over forever.

Poverty

A really bad recession hits the pocket books of all of us. Unemployment will hit tens of millions of Americans and multiples more around the globe. Untold masses of house owners face disaster that Obama’s trillions will not cure. Some will freeze and starve. Others will lose their health, families and self respect. Production of babies will skyrocket while the manufacturing of crappy cars will nose dive. Widows relying on GM stock won’t dine on truffles anymore.

Even the rich suffer – with or without an end to Bush’s tax subsidies. Bill Gates is almost poor by historical comparison. Microsoft stock price is half of its former glory. Saudi royalties, sultans, princes and Halliburton kings walk on slippery ground as oil prices went from almost 150 to below 40 bucks a barrel. The Kuwait Central Bank was about bankrupt. Middle East palace production is way off. Foreign workers are fleeing, abandoning their mirage Hummer windfalls in the airport parking lots. When it is over, it’s temporarily over. Luckily for the Kuwait Bank, oil prices are scrambling up towards $70 as Americans hit the vacation trails.

As for myself, a rather obscure web site informed me I rank at about 700,000,000 in the list of the richest people on earth. Frankly, I’m not real sure if my fortunes are up or down. I do know that filling up my Mini with gas is a lot cheaper than a year ago. But then my rent is way up, mysteriously. What else changed? I don’t see too many bargains beyond the norm. Do you?

Government

Government isn’t really any better at figuring out how to tie shoelaces than Joe the Plumber. What might be obvious to you and me rarely is evident in Washington and other capitals. Government tends to spend their trillions of recovery bucks too late in the cycle and thereby causing the upward cycle to overheat, which leads to the next crisis. The result is unfinished bridges, mysteriously enrichment Florida sugar kingpins, more awful Detroit Hummers with no buyers, luxury school buildings with no students, hyper inflation and untold other disasters.

Governments aren’t real good at managing their affairs. Consider the “-gates” incidents, each one casting a bit of doubt not only on management skills but on the general sanity of those involved. Here is Wikipedia’s list which covers 106 known cases only. The real list is no doubt miles longer:

  • “Angolagate, Baftagate, Bandargate, Bertiegate, Betsygate, Billygate, Bingogate, Bittergate, Blagogate, Bonusgate, Boozegate, Buttongate, Camillagate, Cheriegate, Chicanegate, Coingate, Colegate, Comet Watergate, Contragate, Contragate, Corngate, Debategate, Dianagate, Dijongate, Donnygate, Ettehgate, Fajitagate, Fallagate, Fiascogate, Filegate, Flakegate, Gatesgate, Gerstmanngate, Grannygate, Guzzlegate, Hookergate, Hot Coffeegate, Iguanagate, Indygate, Irangate, Iraqgate, Jerezgate, Jerseygate, Katrinagate, Kazakhgate, Lewinskygate, Liegate, Lipstickgate, Mabelgate, Macacagate, Manuelgate, Monicagate, Monkeygate, Monstergate, Muldergate, NAFTAgate, Nannygate, Niggergate, Nipplegate, Noemigate, Officegate, Paintergate, Paragate, Partgate, Passportgate, Paternitygate, Peppergate, Petrogate, Picturegate, Pizzagate, Plamegate, Railgate, Rathergate, Reutersgate, Rinkagate, Sexgate, Sexy Photo Gate, Shawinigate, Shilpagate, Shreddergate, Sirengate, Slapgate, Smeargate, Spygate, Squidgygate, Stepneygate, Stormontgate, Strippergate, Strippergate, Strippergate (CA), Suitcasegate, Tailgate, Tasergate, Tevezgate, Tiregate, Toallagate, Toiletgate, Travelgate, Troopergate, Troopergate, Tunagate, Utegate, Wardrobegate, Watergate, Waterkantgate (Watergate an der Waterkant), Wheatgate and Whitewatergate”.

The government will occasionally get things right, by mistake most often. For instance, Hitler fixed the German unemployment problem in the thirties by massive investment in autobahns, Stukas, U-boats and black uniforms. Unfortunately, once he built all the autobahns and flooded the “flight clubs” with Stukas, what’s for dessert? World War II took over as employment source for the Aryan masses. The black uniforms were put to deadly use.

Stalin decided farmers were too uppity, especially in the Ukraine. By hiking tax rates in the form of wheat and barley deliveries to well over 100% of actual production all the Soviets suffered famine, killing millions. Mao in China did much the same thing. Today, the same story is repeated in Africa. The Beloved Son in North Korea also experimented with famine to show who is in charge. These are bad government programs.

FDR got it somewhat right with the Great New Deal but millions of Americans nevertheless suffered greatly. Some criticize the Deal, claiming it set out to rescue the Capitalist system that caused the depression in the first place. That’s a good point with relevance to the Obama rescue plans. Many agree with Obama that his deal is saving the day. Does the following ring a bell, in spirit if not in details?

  • “When Franklin D. Roosevelt took office, the nation was in deep economic trouble. State governors had shut down every bank and every bank account was frozen—no one could get a bank loan or cash checks or get at their deposits. Unemployment was 25% and higher in major industrial and mining centers. The agricultural sector, with a fourth of the nation’s population, was in worse shape than industrial areas.
  • Deflation was raging—prices were falling, making future planning difficult and raising the burden of existing debts. Mortgages were being foreclosed by tens of thousands. Worst of all, many people seemed to have given up hope for a better future and were desperately holding on. Unemployment was still high in 1939, with the tide only turning in 1941.”

FDR’s New Deal was a great political reform but it did not rescue Americans or others from the depression. It took 72 million dead in WWII to finally put that beast to sleep. GM’s tank business boomed. Boeing’s bomber business flew high. The unemployed millions found solid employment in the Armies. Women became riveters. Ship builders scrambled as U-boats drove shipping demand way up. The University of Chicago rode high with the A bomb as its star. All at a profit, you might add.

With another World War unlikely at the moment and only small time wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, Obama’s trillions won’t do the job. It will require something real to pull the World out of the hole. Damn if I know what will do the job. Maybe housing, consumers, iPods, Bruce Springsteen or the NBA will save us all. One thing is certain – it will be the common man and woman that charges ahead and beats down the dragon.

Happiness

You see the world fall apart. Fortunes disappear without a trace. Age old institutions are gone, leaving a tiny cloud of dust soon dissimilated. Surviving financial institutions, car dealerships and hot dog stands will never again be the same. Perhaps you will never be the same either. At least some of us will pay more attention to an elusive quality called happiness.

Happiness is a state of mind or feeling characterized by contentment, satisfaction, pleasure, or joy. Scientifically, human happiness correlates with safety, love and belonging, esteem, and self-actualization. There is little or no correlation between income and happiness. The amount of spare time people have, and their control over how much spare time they have, correlates with happiness. Feeling in control of one’s own life leads to happiness. Losing control can be a great source of unhappiness.

The Eightfold Path leads its Buddhist practitioner to Nirvana, a state of everlasting peace. Aristotle stated that happiness is characteristic of a good life. The happy person is virtuous. Happiness is “the virtuous activity of the soul in accordance with reason”: happiness is the practice of virtue. According to that idea, Conservatives are more virtuous and thus happier than Commies, Gays and Liberals, according to several scientific studies:

Republicans are more likely than Democrats to state that they are “very happy.” The gap, unbroken for almost four decades, has been unaffected by political fortunes. Republicans place a higher value than Democrats on marriage, children, and religion. They are more likely than Democrats to be married and attend religious services regularly. Shame on you Democrats.

Legends

The old satyr Silenus had been drinking wine and wandered away drunk, later to be found by some Phrygian peasants, who carried him to their king, Midas. Midas recognized him and treated him hospitably, entertaining him for ten days and nights with politeness. On the eleventh day, Midas brought Silenus back to Dionysus in Lydia. Dionysus offered Midas his choice of whatever reward he wished for. Midas asked that whatever he might touch should be changed into gold. Midas rejoiced in his new power, which he hastened to put to the test. He touched an oak twig and a stone; both turned to gold. Overjoyed, as soon as he got home, he ordered the servants to set a feast on the table. “So Midas, king of Lydia, swelled at first with pride when he found he could transform everything he touched to gold; but when he beheld his food grow rigid and his drink harden into golden ice then he understood that this gift was a bane.

Mammon is a term describing material wealth or greed, most often personified as a deity. Here goes : Lay not up for yourselves treasures upon earth, where moth and rust doth corrupt, and where thieves break through and steal: But lay up for yourselves treasures in heaven, where neither moth nor rust doth corrupt, and where thieves do not break through nor steal: For where your treasure is, there will your heart be also. No one can serve two masters, for either he will hate the one and love the other; or else he will be devoted to one and despise the other. You cannot serve both God and Mammon.

Plutos was the personification of wealth. Blinded by Zeus, Plutos could dispense wealth without prejudice. He is often portrayed with a horn of plenty. Aristophanes in 380 BC wrote a play called Plutus. At first, Plutus did not distribute wealth to the virtuous, or necessarily to the non-virtuous, but instead it is distributed randomly. If Plutus’ eyesight is restored, these wrongs could be righted. The world would be a better place. Plutus’ eyesight is finally restored. He hands out riches to some and removes riches from those he sees as not being virtuous. This gives rise to rancorous comments and claims of unfairness from those that have had their riches removed. The rich audiences in Athens were not amused.

Dalai Lama, exiled from Tibet since 1959, recently said (slightly edited): “The ongoing global economic crisis is an opportunity to re-think values related to finance. This unfortunate crisis can be a lesson to start to think about other values of human beings, not only just money. In money matters we need truth, honesty — transparency is very essential. My knowledge, experience in the financial field is zero but money is important. Without money you can’t survive. But there are other values, happy family, happy community and more content. The crisis is rooted in greed and speculation and a lack of transparency in the financial world. All those business people should learn is that all their business work should be transparent and clean and honest”.

Greed

Greed is the selfish desire for or pursuit of money, wealth, food, or other possessions, especially when this denies the same goods to others. Greed is one of the seven deadly sins in Catholicism. Buddhists believe greed is based on incorrectly connecting material wealth with happiness. Happiness economics point out that acquiring material objects has less impact than we imagine on our feelings of happiness. Assuming a basic level of material comfort, more wealth does not increase happiness. That point is generally lost on many. We never pick our nose, fart in public, steal from supermarkets, rage at fellow motorists or lie to our spouses. As with these examples, greed does not fit one’s preferred self image, thus denied but acted on in secret.

The latest bout of naked greed started with Ronald Reagan. Remember him? He’s the guy who slept through various cabinet meetings concerning illegal US deals in Iran and Central America. He graciously allowed an obscure Marine Colonel by the name of Oliver North take the fall. Reagan soon retired to Santa Barbara. Digressing for a minute, Oliver North was sentenced to a three-year suspended prison term, two years probation, $150,000 in fines, and 1,200 hours community service. All convictions were later vacated. North became a celebrated Fox News political commentator and a NYT bestselling author. The FOX channel produced and aired a television episode in which Oliver North was elected President of the United States. No doubt Oliver is one of those happy Republicans.

Reagan pushed Supply Side Economics, also called Reaganomics. Oddly, the elder Bush labeled the thing “Voodoo Economics” which did as much for his election chances as the “Read My Lips” gaffe. The Reaganomics is a simple enough idea. Reduce taxes for the rich. The rich will invest in jobs for the poor. The idea is still a favorite in any Republican town meeting. Unfortunately, the job creation part didn’t quite work out. The rich bought Microsoft stock instead of building new factories. Thus no jobs materialized but the rich got a whole lot richer. Then, as covered to exhaustion here, along came dotcom and dothouse, followed by the current dotmeltdown. Mammon is still alive.

Greed is not a new phenomenon. The previous paragraph on old mythology proves that point. Here are a few other, more recent examples: the Panic of 1857 – Speculative bubble in United States railroads, the Panic of 1873 – Civil War speculative bubble, the 1919-21 Depression due to a Post WWI speculative bubble, the Great Depression 1929-1939 and the total collapse in inflated stock prices, the 1973-75 Oil Crisis – Speculative quadrupling of oil prices. And so on.

See a pattern? Greed makes you personally unhappy. Yet, most pursue greed like the heroin it is. “Greed is a virtue, serving me all I ever want”. “Keep the cake that you eat forever and ever”. “Whatever you touch turns into gold”. “The day of reckoning is never”. Greed and speculation may not be the only cause of recessions but is frequently a major part, making all of us addicts unhappy. The question remains – who are the deplorable speculators? We don’t really know yet, do we?

To be continued.

Be happy and virtuous

 

Karl

One day, out of the blue, huge black holes moved into the neighborhood. It had something to do with pay checks, mortgages and your home that you foolishly thought were yours. Suddenly the concern was whether or not the black hole would swallow or spit you out. Are you with one of the dying, dead or possibly reborn Detroit auto behemoths? You put your retirement money in Icelandic or East Europe funds. Some of you are customers or employees of dead banks. Were you foreclosed? Are you a realtor searching for non existing listings or a Buick dealer looking at an empty lot? Then you know the pain.

Billions have yet to experience such pain. After all, a 10% unemployment rate means 90% of us have jobs. So for most, all is well? Maybe, but the lucky will find there is no place to hide. Governments pump incomprehensible amounts of money into who knows what. You’ll pay for that, others will get rich. Whole countries remain on the brink of collapse. Are those high risk funds gone? Hell no, investing by the common man into spectacular risk Russian funds not only continues at an unprecedented level but grows at frenzying rates. Who can resist 60% gains in mere months? Guess what will happen.

Are you angry, furious or resentful about this mess? You should be although the “who, when, why, where and what” is sketchy at best. Huge amounts of money rush around the globe in a manner making drug cartels gasp in envy. Desperate governments feed the fever with major league pay outs, relief programs, bailouts and general flag waving. Will those fortunes end up with blood thirsty Russians, Canadians, Chinese and Italians stealing GM? Outsource IRS to India, save trillions. License DEA to the City of Tijuana. Can the Albanians really buy Bank of America? The LA Lakers may become Moscow Lakers. Obama can buy Iceland, Zimbabwe and Lithuania and merge them with already owned Michigan. Joe Biden mentioned the other day – “there will be some waste”. How much is that?

Billions of bucks head to some neighborhoods turned into a gleaming World Trade Center II or pit stops (think Disneyland) by new Autobahn from Houston to Wasilla, Alaska. Have your backyard house the Grand New HealthCare Agency Headquarter, named after veteran health care reformer Hillary Clinton (“USS Hillary R. Clinton”), co-chaired by Sanjay Gupta of CNN and Aldemar Rojas Mosquera of Colombia, pioneering huge leaps in modern medicine.

Upheaval

Most of you may not have noticed the riots, murders and domestic violence beyond our hazy horizons. The capitals and major cities of China, Russia, Bolivia, Greece, Bulgaria, Latvia, Lithuania, Iceland, France, Italy and Ireland have already witnessed riots or major protests over skyrocketing unemployment. Iran, proving anger is still a factor, could have gone up in flames but perhaps for different reasons. In the US, there are no protests in spite of being in the deepest of holes among the big guys. Ask yourself why silence prevails. Are you angry? Why not? How come your gearbox no longer engages in the slightest degree of emotion?

Angry or not, finding out who is to blame may seems vital. Stomp out the bad and the ugly. Rip their freezing hearts out, beat their deviant brains in. Feet in a cement block, let’m ride to the bottom of the Hudson, the Thames, the Seine or Lake Michigan. Well, for one thing, no one seems sufficiently upset for such measures. Second, the moral of this tale is that the ugly, bad and guilty includes you. Yes, you. And third, perhaps the real culprit is not the common foolishness of all of us.

Perhaps this System doesn’t work anymore. Capitalism, democracy, United Nations, the World Bank, G8, borders, quotas, poverty and riches may well be mere relics of the past. If Communism could die, so can democracy. The sorry fate of Wall Street’s bankers, brought down by the fury of you and I, can signal the end of Capitalism. India and China are the next leaders until perhaps they wipe each other out. The US will not be part of that club. Germany or Britain won’t be invited to the center table. You and I may find life turned upside down with the view deteriorating quicker than the One Minute Waltz.

Dreams

Digressing from the financial nightmare for a second, the collapse of the American Dream started with the Vietnam War. Then the energy crisis of 1975 and the birth of Opec brought it home to Americans that no longer were they in charge. The Watergate disaster and the shame of Nixon showed how far south the system had gone. Iran and its US embassy hostages brought Carter to his knees. Reagan presided over the Contra scandal. Clinton suffered MonicaGate. Maybe he enjoyed it.

America could suddenly be challenged successfully, safely and violently. Modern day vandals blew up American soldiers in Beirut, Somalia and Saudi Arabia. USS Cole got a hole to prove it. US embassies in Africa were pulverized. Then along came the climax of 9/11. President Bush, a relatively harmless fool till then, turned into a viscous destructor of whatever claim American still had for greatness. Bin Laden won not only the battle but the war because Bush lost.

Al-Qaeda and Osama bin Laden won because America was and is lost. America didn’t pay attention. Not to the screams of terrorists. Not to the loss of that moral idealism that once was present. America was in the grips of greed. Riches were suddenly a right without the effort. America was lost to the Land of Oz where reality didn’t matter. Bush contributed greatly to the decline but you went along with it. Greed ruled the day.

Forty years ago, almost to the day, America went to the moon. “A great step for mankind” to be sure but the other shoe never dropped. 1969 marked the Woodstock Festival in upstate New York. That’s the good news. 1969 saw Richard Nixon take office, leading to Watergate and national disgrace. The Cleveland Plain Dealer published explicit photographs of dead villagers from the My Lai massacre in Vietnam, a practice still in place. The secret bombings of Cambodia began. The United States held its first draft lottery since WWII in to supply soldiers to Vietnam, where the 1969 war cost 163,000 dead. 9,414 were Americans.

In 1969, the Beatles gave their last public performance. AIDS arrived in the United States. James Earl Ray pleaded guilty to assassinating Martin Luther King Jr. Sirhan Sirhan admitted that he killed Robert F. Kennedy. 14 Chicago police officers shot to death Black Panther Party members Fred Hampton and Mark Clark in their sleep during a raid. Edward M. Kennedy’s Presidential hopes died with Mary Jo Kopechne as he drives off a bridge on his way home from a party on Chappaquiddick Island. Charles Manson and his cult murdered Sharon Tate and six others.

The late sixties and early seventies changed the world. The relative innocence of the fifties and the heroics of the forties faded away. The great social experiment of the sixties lost its teeth. The “I” generations of yuppies replaced the hippies and the protesters. Long hair was out, air blown was in. Universities spewed out MBA’s heading to Wall Street and lawyers moving in on Washington. Sit-ins, demonstrations and communes disappeared. The New Age and Prozac replaced Led Zeppelin and LSD. Dreams changed.

George and Dick

Most of us love to blame Bush for all things evil, but the Texas swaggerer wasn’t clever enough to create as massive a mess as we suffer today. The Bush regime thrived on a doctrine of Fear. Create Fear and you shall have Power. Plots here, WMD there, cut of the head off one or another enemy of something or another. Fear is a sickness, easily exploited. Bush and gang exploited fear to make possible outrageous and generally illegal policies. Fear of Muslims, such as Muslim limo drivers. Fear of non existing WMD. Fear of Central American nannies and Mexican gardeners. Fear of environmentalists, gays, actors, journalists and scientists.

Almost no one effectively challenged the crimes of a president or the corruption of his vice president. The deployment of hundreds of thousand soldiers into illegal wars met only scant opposition. Congress mumbled, the highest court fumbled and “the masses” stumbled. Human rights, international law and plain common decency gave way to greed, power frenzy and moral confusion. Bush did not create the financial meltdown. Neither did the elderly Bush, Reagan, Carter or Clinton. The crimes of George W. Bush are more about killing people than about impoverishing them.

The current news about George W. Bush, according to Google News, is not about Bush at all. The Rangers will name a suite after him. Laura Bush tells us about being out of the killing lime light – having to go to the hardware store – about borrowing chairs for dinner parties. Dubya picks up after Barney the Scot terrier on neighbor’s lawn. Score one for Barney. This is about the guy causing a million deaths according to authoritative sources. That is 1,000,000 deaths – six zeroes and a one.

Even today Cheney says: “I don’t believe we engaged in torture. If I had it to do it all over again, I would do exactly the same thing. I’d be just as tough and aggressive as I could to make certain that those individuals . . . who were prepared to kill thousands of Americans to achieve a political objective got what they had coming to them.” Good night, Cheney. Find another undisclosed location, please.

The stories about Dick Cheney mainly concern the possible prosecution of his (and his boss’s) war crimes over the last eight years. After all, sanctioning torture, ethnic cleansing and the like is quite illegal under US and International law. This most stubborn, selfish and scheming bastard in modern politics is trying for a foothold in the Republican power fraction of Palin, Limbaugh and, she wishes, Coulter. Bush allowed, but Cheney masterminded, the deaths of a million people – six zeroes and a one.

To date, the elderly Cheney’s comeback dreams haven’t come true but then; neither have those of Limbaugh and Palin. Out pops Liz Cheney, making the oddest remarks in public interviews. She seemed to claim, for instance, that Obama being born in Kenya should be stripped of the Presidency. Official records show Obama being born in Hawaii, then and presently not part of Kenya.

No question GOP in a crisis. With self destructive leaders such as those above, who needs democrats, feeble as they are. GOP has a long way to go. Having embraced marketing approach “selling a product”, the size, color and shape of that product is a well kept secret. No doubt making round pegs square overwhelms even the stoutest of designers, flying around the circus without a safety net. Moreover, the brightest of the GOP figured out, to their amazement, that Hispanics, black and young voters do not go GOP’s way at all. Now, all of those segments are growing at rates far exceeding the segment driving Cadillac with white walled tires. Unless the GOP can design the product speaking rap in Detroit, Spanish if Southern California and Greenspeak in Berkeley, they may never again reside over state dinners.

The Powers

Many ask why the powerful elite allowed this mess to develop with so many common sense signs dancing in front of every one’s eyes. That’s a key question. How is the high up rot cut out? Smokey Bear, where are you?

What about the icon of financial genius, Alan Greenspan, and his 1987-2006 tenure of the Fed? The 2008 meltdown is a consequence of many of his policies. The dot-com disaster of 2000 taught him nothing as he allowed the housing bubble to develop. Greenspan believed a national decline in house prices would, could not happen. He kept interest rates low, fueling the subprime mortgages. Thereby criminally shortsighted, self-destructive and super ebullient gamblers in their mahogany corner offices could go for the home run to ruin the rest of us. These players were not all Wall Street insiders. Just about any bank or financial institution had fingers in the pie.

The nitroglycerin style derivatives markets took off during Greenspan’s watch. Derivatives grew by 1,000 percent in the past decade and now represents a contract value of 4 (four) times the combined wealth of this planet. Any sane person should scream and run like hell for that old A-bomb shelter. Suppose you have a $400,000 house and a $100,000 retirement fund. Use it as the down payment towards $2,000,000 worth of lottery tickets, due in a week. Perhaps you’ll win. Most likely, you’ll be $1,500,000 in the red. Even your cat will hate you.

Such was the gamble of AIG, suddenly requiring $85 billion of your money. Shortly before, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac disasters robbed you of $238 billion or so. Société Générale, Amaranth Advisors, BAWAG, CITIC Pacific, Groupe Caisse d’Epargne, WestLB, Sadia, MF Global, Morgan Stanley and Carnegie Investment Bank all found out high risk trading can end up as billion dollar eggs on one’s face.

Greenspan retired in 2006 and others took over. The new Fed chairman Ben S. Bernanke found the ship to be sinking and frantically started bailing. He and a few associates tried to plug the creaking hull as one torpedo after another drove in, while being “overwhelmed, exhausted, beseeched, besieged, constantly second-guessed”. The pivotal event of Lehman Brothers crashing on September 14, 2008 finally exposed the dirty laundry to a confused, alarmed and panicking world. Lending froze, and the world economy sank like a rock with fortunes vanishing like yesterday’s meringues.

Bush was an uninvolved spectator to the potentially biggest loss of American prosperity in history. Concerned only with avoiding blame, he obsessed about teaching Wall Street a lesson for troubling him. His White House staff was looking for new jobs, gleefully pushing what they could into Obama’s lap.

Greenspan, Bernanke, Bush, million buck Bonus Bankers or Stone Age Detroit Big Shots may all be confused about which century they live in and whose wallet they so carelessly throw around. They collectively contributed to you and me down financial and moral black holes. But you are the one walking up to the rim of that hole.

The Suspects

Then who else might we blame? What gruesome faults are we trying to pin on some one? To many a common man or woman, the ghost story is about a job that disappeared. Others lost their house. Owners of selected stock and fund assets are wiped out. Owners of SAAB cars may or may not be screwed but trading in your ’77 Saab 99 for a brand new Koenigsegg super car won’t be easy.

Disgraced CEO’s, CFO’s, Presidents, Secretaries, Ministers and other dignitaries might be in jail or living in the Manhattan Subway tunnels or beach front Malibu by now. No question, scores of rats are leaving the ship, voluntarily or not. Heads are chopped off, tumors removed and bad breath cured.

Who else? Rounding up the usual suspect doesn’t do the job either: Can we blame Terrorists, Columbian drug lords, Philip Morris, the Russian Mafia, Japanese “research” whalers or even Ann Coulter? Sorry, they are not exclusively to blame. Saudi royalty, Oprah, abortionists, Dr. No, North Korean Great Leaders, Noble Sons and Glorious Fathers are likewise unable to claim all the glory.

The International Communist Conspiracy is more concerned with Ensure and Attend than with toppling democracy. The Armenian International Conspiracy only exists in the brain of a madman, thus probably not guilty. Google, Bing or even Wikipedia do not provide the unsavory answers. The Vast Right Wing Conspiracy, the New World Order, CIA, the Military-Industrial Complex may have a lot to answer to, but perhaps not in this particular case. The Area 51/Grey Aliens conspiracy and OJ are certainly suspects if just someone could pin down why. Bigfoot and the Protocols of the Elders of Zion nowadays seem to be lost, thus are off the list.

The real enemy includes you and me. We bought houses, then refinanced as prices went through the roof. We merrily bought Hummers with the windfall. We were temporarily rich, buying stocks such as InfoSpace, The Learning Company, Lycos, Flooz.com, Boxman AB, Netscape, Pets.com, theGlobe.com and, yes, Microsoft. All were hot shots around 1999, but are not so hot today. Fortunately for many, those losses were covered by house prices continued to boom. It was great fun while it lasted.

Tale of the Sand

Here are some clues. First, we all knew the policies of Bush were dead wrong. Oh yes, you did, but you didn’t really care. Second, didn’t your mother tell you about borrowing a lot more than you can afford against your home, for Christ sake? Third, to paraphrase Obama, the remarkable balloon of wealth was a mirage similar to that of houses built on sand. Eventually, sand will shift, toppling the house, no matter how many lines in the sand someone hangs their hat on. Migration to houses built on solid rock will be painful, long and full of sacrifice. Eat your broccoli. Pay for the bailouts. Smile bravely.

That tale of the shifting sands is a great metaphor except it in no way addresses the issue. That is, “why did this black hole exist in the first place and is it by chance repaired, filled in and plugged tight”? Never mind plugging holes, the Obama metaphor justifies massive government intervention in the opinion of Democrats. According to Republicans, let the Great Father in the sky work his magic for those of the right credentials, i.e. registered Republicans and hell with the others and let’s not rob the rich of their hard earned windfalls. If the Great Father drags his heels, there is always Sarah Palin to do the honors.

Enter trillion dollar programs to “reach high ground, “to rebuild on solid rock”, to “revive America”, to revive “Reelection Chances” and to “Paint Lisbon, ND, Pink”. We all know this is just a mad gambling streak. No matter how many trillions are thrown out the windows like a New York confetti parade, it’s not going to save the day. Those trillions are a continuation of what was, and is, wrong in the first place. Why expect change if all you do is to repeat the past? If your kid ate too much candy, do you give him/her more candy? If you are on life support, will twice as much life support cure you or kill you? As Obama advisors put it, “we are not soothsayers”.

In fact, we are approaching six months of bailouts with no evidence of any positive effect. Obama begs for patience, claiming fall will be glorious. Which fall is that? Obama’s spin machine is the mightiest ever in the annals of American politics. Not even that machine can cover up tens of trillions in deficits is bad news to any sane person except a few Voodoo economists. Just ask mother.

The Conservative in you will say “Nothing wrong here, that’s the way the buck rolls”. Your Socialist ego says “Shoot the bastards and let’s split the cake”. You Commies will relocate everyone except the chosen few to Prudhoe Bay to learn farming, thereby eliminating greed and providing food for starving auto workers and poverty ridden airline crews having only peanuts to eat. Democrats will remain confused, requiring endless debates and another trillion to make ends meet while waiting for The Answer. Ralph Nader, Ross Perot, Rod Blagojevich, David Duke, Ann Coulter and Ralph Reed all have ideas about what should be our future pads. Fortunately, few agree.

Throwing a red hot trillion bucks at creepy bankers and Detroit mammoths, building bridges (over what?) and new roads (to where?), closing an American concentration camp or two, stopping some torture, possibly embracing a few friendly Muslims, executing tax cuts and providing health care for every one – sounds good but is it real, enough or even wise?

So What

This is the first in a essay series on current events, attempting to understand why so many wrongs over the last decade has met with so little concern, protest and anger. The world of today with its instant, massive and global coverage of important as well as unimportant issues makes it very hard to distinguish between hype, hymn and heroics.

And that’s the way it is

Karl

Hillary Clinton had her share of bad news. But in early March 2008, last minute momentum changed in her favor. Over the first four days in March leading up to the Texas and Ohio challenges, Mrs. Clinton made some significant inroads nationally. Obama and McCain lost some. Glancing at this morning’s headlines, some others suspect the same shift. Might she make her come-back?

If all you care about is the poll results, follow this link. After all, who needs small talk. Busy times.

Obama’s lead is so huge her gain probably won’t matter. A month ago, his standing was well entrenched as the front runner not just over Hillary but over any other competitor. In February, his lead Franklin D. Roosevelt Smoking Awaystrengthened further as he won the 11 state straight contests.

The attention level Obama has generated is probably unprecedented. The support for his front runner standing is easily traced to two factors – he is eminently newsworthy and holds a commanding lead in news publicity. Second, bloggers piggy tail on the same paparazzi quotient. In other measures, he is generally not in the lead, losing to Hillary and others in several areas.

As this is written, some 12 hours remain till the outcomes of the races in Texas, Ohio, Rhode Island and Vermont are known. It’d be crazy to forecast the outcome this late but this SANITY index suggests that Hillary will do just a bit better than expected. Given that the races appear to be close, this may be significant.

Incidentally, I’m not associated with any candidate or political movement. I have no axe to grind although I do have personal convictions of no bearing to the current proceedings.

SANITY or What?

Here is the SANITY index. It stands for Substance, Attention, Noteworthy, Interesting, Trusty and, say, You. It’s not your average poll calling 1,409 Americans in their homes asking dumb questions. It is a computerized “no human hands” survey based largely on the Internet, data mining and proprietary algorithms. The SANITY survey tracks 168 subjects providing insights into today’s real life issues. These issues range from the Presidential race to Hollywood to health.John F. Kennedy Speaking His Mind

The unique feature of this survey is that it can run on a 24/7 continuous basis with full tracking available down to minutes. The other unique feature is that attention is focused on essentials and not meaningless detail, keeping with a “keep it simple” basis.

The survey measures what issues we care about and what people we find worthy of attention. For instance, we measure how much press coverage an individual, such as Barack Obama, gets or how much health care insurance is on the minds of bloggers. There is no judgment of whether that coverage is positive or negative. We just measure the attention levels. Keep it simple.

Only one thing matters in an election. That is who won. Details do not matter except to TV commentators who have nothing better to do. The two things that matter before the election are, first, the absolute standings and, second, whether or not those standings are going up, down or nowhere.

The Presidential Race

Rudy didn’t really want it, preferring mega consulting bucks. Edwards was so smug no one cared. Mitt being too slickly CEOish and a Mormon on top of that couldn’t make it. Ten wives and fifty kids, no doubt, as some perceived it. Billy Robertson is a funny guy and very reasonable but who wants a slightly overweight Hispanic when Hillary is around. In the past, we saw maniacs such as Ross Perot and his great sucking sound, Dean with the scream versus mama’s boys such as Dukakis and a not quite presentable wife. Sir Winston Churchill on His Battleship

Not even Viagra worked on Bob Dole. Pat Buchanan can be as mad as he pleases on TV but not in the White House according to the occasionally sane American public. And Al Gore – what can you say? He’s the guy that couldn’t beat the worst presidential candidate (and horrifying President) in modern times. Neither could wobbly Kerry who never knew when to shut up and get on with it, thus becoming a sitting duck. Nader the spoiler is again making noises with no apparent benefit to anyone. Maybe Jesse will sit this out. Thanks God.

All of these people share not winning. Relying on polls, donors spent mega money on them with no or little return. The American people endured listening to meaningless chatter. Enthusiastic volunteers sat through that election night becoming gloomier and gloomier. All because some pollster shyster managed to sell the idea that so and so might win something or another. Pollster turns out to be the financial winner big time. Hey, why not. Here I come.

SANITY at Work

Here are three graphs showing the very core of the race. The first graph highlights Obama’s crushing lead. With an election today we’d have our first black President without doubt. It is sure hard to see anyone overcoming the massive publicity advantage of this guy. McCain trails big time as does Mrs. Clinton.

The graph includes a few other political figures as seen by a mostly American public. The three main Presidential candidates totally dominate. Romney is riding into the sunset. George W. Bush is down in the pack keeping company with bin Laden and Saddam Hussein. America’s favorite Fascist Ann Coulter lumbers close to Hitler and Limbaugh. Ralph Nader stays in obscurity but made a nice gain following his latest threat to join the race. March 4 2008 Presidential Standings

The next graph details how Obama gained in February at the expense of not Hillary, but McCain. Obama is the front runner without question. His share is a whopping 70% higher than that of Hillary Clinton. How do you beat that? He is clearly in the driver seat. McCain doesn’t look close either. Presidential Race Major Contestant Shares

Lastly, here is Hillary’s big glimmer of hope. There is a change in momentum in her favor over the last few days before Texas and Ohio contests. Her share is up 4 percent with minor losses for both Obama and McCain. Is it significant? We’ll know in a few hours.

Presidential Race Major Contestant Momentum

Hillary’s Glimmer of Hope

That’s where things are this Morning of the possibly decisive March 4th, 2008. Many of you will know the outcome by the time you read this and I may have an update by then.

Perhaps this billion dollar election is all a huge joke. Maybe it’s one of the biggest scams around. But that really is irrelevant. “Never in the field of human endeavors is so much spent by so many on so little” to paraphrase the one truly great politician in (or just before) our time.George W. Bush's Fatal Moment

A few billions is a lot of dough to spend on caucuses in Iowa, endless town hall meetings and negative advertising on issues no one cares about, such as gun boats in Vietnam, silly pictures of candidates crying at the wrong (or right) moment, riding tanks, landing on aircraft carriers, being soft on rape, nannies, immigration or fast food.

Here are some more quotes from the most quotable politician in history: “A lie gets halfway around the world before the truth has a chance to get its pants on.”; “Eating (my) words has never given me indigestion. “; “I may be drunk, Miss, but in the morning I will be sober and you will still be ugly.”; “Truth is so precious that she should always be attended by a bodyguard of lies”.

Sir Winston Churchill also said “Never hold discussions with the monkey when the organ grinder is in the room.” Now, to get back on track, is the pollster the monkey or the organ grinder? Great question. Please let me know.

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