On Photography – Creativity Outside, Inside
December 3, 2007
Don’t we just love to assign labels to people? We have famous people and those unlucky unfamous people. There are winners and losers. Some are rich, others poor. You have heroes and creeps. Cops and robbers. Good guys, bad guys. Pillars of society and scorchers of earth. Then the whole deal morphs into crime and punishment, Bible versus Koran, Red versus Blue, Cancer versus Hangnails and Canon versus Nikon shooters.
This is the story about the rich and famous, the not quite rich or famous and, most importantly, those not famous at all. It is also a story about art. It touches on some shameful facts but there are good things too. Nothing is black and white only. Something for everyone, I think.
Technology
It has long been a desire of the powerful to classify people into useful categories. Consumer companies such as Procter & Gamble owes considerable debt to market research which divides the World into those using Prell, Tide, Bounce and the infidels that do not. TV evangelists, politicians, NPR and Greenpeace split people into Donors and Parasites.
The Census Bureau classifies us in microscopic detail to the delight of the marketing and advertising gangs. The political districting gurus have a grandiose sand box of devious tactics. Some become crooked enough to drive legislators into neighboring states to avoid being 
railroaded. Starbucks drill into the data to determine the address of the next overpriced java dump.
I’m happy to learn there are 984 Slovaks and 89 Sioux in the City Of Seattle. Sadly, no Navajos appear to live in my city. 2,447 females require less than five minutes to get to their workplace. Some are my neighbors, no doubt. Of those working at home, 1,271 are not US citizens. 4,767 leave for work between 5 and 5:29 AM, which oddly is about the same number as those leaving between 11 and 11:59 AM. All data is downloadable from the Census Bureau for your entertainment unless, of course, you already have a life.
Then there is something called data mining as practiced illegally by various US government agencies such as NSA in the name of the holy War on Terror, aka the Religious Right War on Muslim. It’s purpose, in the eyes of the George W.’s of an unfortunate world, is to gain insights in as many aspects of your personal life as possible, thereby supposedly proving you are a Muslim and thus a terrorist. Never mind that you may actually be a Slovak, Sioux, Navajo or, worse, a Democrat.
Data mining is largely done by deep diving into the Internet, tapping emails and listening in on phone calls. When it gets more than lukewarm, your phone specifically is tapped, with or, most likely, without court approval. Big Joe demands all your private 
records from record keepers such as banks, online services and your veterinarian. Naturally, banks, airlines and others such as Yahoo, eBay, Microsoft and Google, have caved in to Big Joe. Joe McCarthy would be green with envy if he were to live in these joyous times. Many wonder why 250 million Americans buy into this horse manure. This is the people fanatically defending their right to bear assault rifles. Over their dead bodies as the saying accurately goes. That line in the sand stand, of course, defends the right to carry an assault rifle to the supermarket, not those Commies’
civil rights.
If you are like most people, data mining is not close to your top priorities. It is a subject almost as boring as Global Warming. No doubt you will ignore both of these issues until 1) your house is permanently under carbonized ocean water and 2) Big Brother decides you are no longer allowed to fly on US of A airlines to visit Grandma in Florida. Your charitable donations are suddenly
terrorist money laundering. Your favorite cruise ship vacation is replaced by a prolonged stay in Cuba where no laws are pertinent.
Will data mining stop terrorism? It absolutely, definitely and assuredly will not. Data mining and the War on Terror will fail because George Bush has no idea what or who he is allegedly fighting. Winning means you have to know who and what to beat. It helps if you also know why. Ask any athlete. Tim Duncan does not play against some vague demographic segment. His job is to beat the heck out of Yao Ming and Shaq O’Neal.
Data mining, on the other hand, will generate gigatons of absolutely useless data, not winning a single game. It is pointless to wiretap 250 million Americans to gain insights into the minds of five or so terrorists located in Kazakhstan this week and in Lille, France next week and then possibly in the Sears Tower with a suitcase full of radioactive weapons of mass destruction and a smart looking suicide belt. The CIA will blame FBI who will tear into The Domestic Nuclear Detection Office who sends it off to NSA/CSS after which it is never seen again.
This is all due to the idea people can be classified, pigeonholed and dumped into categories, risk segments, code orange traps and hard drive locations. It is, to be true, all fantasy.
Politics
George Bush splits the World into those with him and those not. Those against him include everyone not with him, that is, Terrorists aka Muslims, Scientists, Environmentalists, anything French or German, Gays, his Dad, Hollywood, the Press, Fancy Food, Alzheimer victims, Math Teachers, ACLU and Anyone making less than a million bucks a day. He also dislikes journalists, 
doctors, lawyers, actors, his own cabinet and members of previous cabinets as well as any past, current or future members of Congress.
Hitler divided the World into mythical Aryans and those not, such as Jews, Gypsies, Hungarians, Poles, Cabaret performers and Homosexuals. Stalin divided his constituents into evil peasants versus loyal commissars. His Generals split their troops into those shot by Germans and those shot in the back by fellow soldiers for not advancing fast enough. The Generals too usually ended up shot by a jealous Stalin.
None of the three gentlemen above cared or cares at all for “different” people. That is a tragedy led by the powerful and directed at the powerless. People are split into categories resulting in the loss of freedom, rights and heads. The rules of the splits can be pretty much anything. Here are a few examples from the last 8 years or so, sorted by casualties:
Iraqi Wars, Afghan Wars, Ethiopia-Eritrea War, Somali Civil War, The First and Second Chechen Wars, Sudanese Civil War, 9/11, Algerian Civil War, Israel-Lebanon War, Sierra Leone Civil War, Waziristan War, Cote d’Ivoire Civil War, al-Qaeda misc. Murders, Turkey-PKK Conflict, Beslan School Siege, Bali Bombings, Madrid Terrorist Attack, Moscow Theatre Siege, Guatemala Civil War, Bojaya Massacre, Super Ferry 14 Bombing, Iraq Fuel Tanker Bombing, London Terror Attacks, Passover Massacre, USS Cole Bombing, Varanasi Train Bombings, Janupur Train Bombing, Karachi Bus Bombing, Indian Parliament Murders, Podujevo Bus Bombing and the Anthrax Attacks.
Tragedy
There is a different kind of prominent split that most of us like to ignore. That is the split of those that are Disadvantaged or those who are not. This includes the Mentally Ill versus us Sane. The physically disabled versus us fit. The oppressed, discriminated against and persecuted; the homeless, stateless, limbless, jobless or not. Anyone not fitting the orderly picture favored by 
those claiming to be Normal. Once you had Hippies and Beatniks. Now you have welfare mothers, suicide by police, walled suburbs, security cameras, phone taps, road rage and high school murder. It’s them versus us. Take no prisoners.
Perhaps one way to make the distinction is that the Outsiders are those that frighten the Insiders. The Insiders deep down know that the transition to Outsider is just a breath away. That is not a pleasant thought. You might suddenly and involuntarily join the damned, those fucked over one way or another. Jobs, status and security come and go.
Walk into any nursing home and you will not just find the elderly – you will find plenty of people that by their age and physical condition should be out there laboring away as us normal persons do. These people – traffic accident victims, punched out boxers, short-circuited CEOs, born “that way”, victims of violence or natural disasters – are institutionalized because a) they should be and b) someone or something is paying for their keep which is lucky indeed.
The US VA hospitals are filled with those suddenly Disadvantaged in Iraq, Afghanistan, Vietnam or the dozens of other conflicts deemed worthwhile by brave leaders. Iraqi graves are filled with those permanently Disadvantaged by cluster bombs, religious leaders, Bunker Busters, Precision this or that, lack of milk, neighbors, drugged out Blackwater “security guards” not to mention Syrians, Saudis, Iranians, Egyptians, Kurds, Turks and Jordanians. Perhaps an Israeli or two play their game too.
Cityscapes
I live in downtown Seattle. As in most downtown areas, human misery is close at hand. Screams in the night, mental illness, drugs, pan handling and all the other urban invisibles are all quite visible in my neighborhood. Being on a busy street close to a major fire station, sirens topple the normal 
noise level at a frightening pace. The major TV stations are close by and their remote units come and go, recording misery somewhere else. Their helicopters constantly head for some disaster or another.
Listening to the nighttime screams, the anger of those stuck out there is very obvious. It is true rage I hear. That rage is rarely specific and usually aimed at “it”. “It” isn’t you or me. But it leads to fear among the shop owners, the Yuppie condo people and the city officials. Rage on one side, fear on the other side. Careful demarcation of boundaries: them versus us, day versus night. It is remarkable how loud voices are at 4 AM when the traffic is gone. Perhaps it is despair I hear rather than anger. It might be both.
I have yet to see the rage of the disadvantaged turn into violence although it certainly happens. It does not, though, approach the violence created by even an average American President. Some of “them” I know by now. Others I recognize. Being an insomniac, I see both sides of the fence. Some of “them” are artists with great talent although the chance of a gig or exhibition is slim indeed.
Art
Here is what I’m driving at. You’d be astonished how much art is created by the Different or those Disadvantaged. Take Hitler’s concentration camps and ghettos. A different post of mine included
the harrowing, remarkable art produced by camp inmates. Some of those images are repeated here. Extraordinary music was composed in the camps. Only a small proportion is preserved. Hitler’s envy of real artists sentenced them to extermination. Here are just four of the names: Mendel Grossman – photographer, Leo Haas – painter, Alfred Kantor – painter, Paul Morgan – entertainer.
In recent times, the fenced paradise of Singapore banned, censored and prosecuted local press, local artists, theater performances, international press and magazines, pornography and music of various kinds. Sex and the City was only shown recently after much hand wringing. They call it Social Engineering.
The people of Singapore feel they live in a nice place which might be true in the mind of some. Certainly Singapore is record clean. There are immigrant ghettos in Paris and many other European cities that are not as clean or socially engineered. The various zones, authorities and partitions in the Middle East are in the daily news. The Baghdad disaster, parts of New York City, Los Angeles, Chicago and Toronto. If you live in one such area, Art may not be in the front yard of your life. Yet Art lives on everywhere – even in the Green Zone of Baghdad. I bet. 
Many of us saw the glorification of the Soviet Worker’s Paradise: workers rising, workers working, workers marching or worker warring. It did not include workers drunk, workers departing for Siberia or workers suffering from AIDS. Apparatich, KGB and aging leaders were artistically invisible. Artistically, the World became one-dimensional.
The Soviet System demanded conformance to “Soviet Realism” which was neither realistic, nor had much to do with art. Lenin in 1920 denounced “Expressionism, Futurism, Cubism and “other ‘isms’,” as non worthy elitist deviance. Dissidence meant gulags as Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn and Alexander Ginzburg found out. Major artists such as Shostakovich and Prokofiev in music and, in literature, Bulgakov, Pasternak, Platonov, Mandelstam, Trifonov, Babel and Grossman all walked the thin line of becoming “Different” and rebelling against the state line. But check out some of Shostakovich’s works – there are plenty of semi hidden revolts against the dictations. All of which were at the mercy of Stalin and others. “Different” meant living a very miserable life.
In the US of A
Billie Holiday was banned from performing in New York as was Thelonious Monk. Joe McCarthy destroyed some 140 victims – many were artists. Rudy Giuliani unsuccessfully censored the Brooklyn Museum and its “Sensation” art show. Some five years ago, the New York State corrections commissioner announced that he banned the sale of artwork created by prison 
inmates to reduce the anguish of the victims of said inmates. Considering over two million people in the US enjoy free room and board, it stands to reason there should be a rather lively art scene. Certainly many artists were in jail for some or another offence in their past.
Let’s compile another list: Emily Araki, Asao Handa, Mobu Hashimoto, Taye Jow, Yoshiko Ushida and Richard Kanazawa. All were Artists, different and residents of American concentration camps during WWII. There were many more, all of Japanese origins. Yet the sons fought in Italy and elsewhere. On the American side.
NPR and the National Endowment for the Arts are perpetual Republican targets for extinction. One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest, To Kill a Mockingbird, All the Pretty Horses, the Harry Potter series, The Catcher in the Rye, Sophie’s Choice, The Adventures of Huckleberry Finn and The Inferno (Dante) all share the honor of being banned from schools in, for instance, Arkansas, Colorado, Florida and Texas. The same schools usually favor school prayers, various patriotic pledges and creationism. They tend to agree with Lenin on “Expressionism, Futurism, Cubism and “other ‘isms’,” being dangerous elitist deviance usually leading to pre marriage sex or worse.
Then we have the racial issues. It used to be those were viewed as mostly a shameful American problem. Today it is a global issue that will get worse. Global Warming will force relocation of hundreds of millions of people from tropical areas into developed areas on top of the current labor market flows. Politicians gamble it will not happen on their guard. But Nicolas Sarkozy of France already knows the score as do his riot police.
Racial profiling is yet another example of discrimination practiced by air lines, police and New Jersey Turnpike State Patrol. United Airlines throw Assem Bayaa off a flight claiming that because of national security, they don’t have to obey civil rights protection laws. Racial profiling is blamed for the shooting of Amadou Diallo by the New York City Police Department. London Police killed Jean Charles de Menezes because he looked Middle Eastern. Menezes was Brazilian. US Airways removed six Muslim imams from a flight after fellow passengers expressed fear.
My favorite fascist Ann Coulter jumped in on the US Airways act: “US Airways is my official airline now. Northwest, which eventually flew the Allah-spouting Muslims to their destinations, is off my list. You want to really hurt a U.S. air carrier’s business? Have Muslims announce that it’s their favorite airline.” Would Ms. Coulter like to fly Middle East Airlines on her next trip to Beirut? Maybe she’ll have to connect using Syrian Arab Airlines after crossing the Atlantic on Royal Jordanian out of JFK. No doubt service would be impeccable.
Mortgage lenders, insurance companies and the retail industry have their own version of profiling known as redlining. It means ethnic factors determine the availability of services. Blacks cannot obtain loans or insurance. Retailers refuse to serve certain ethnic neighborhoods. The late 1980s saw the emergence of the phrase Environmental Racism. It covers issues such as urban decay and excessive pollution in minority areas and the unavailable health care for, say, AIDS.
Us
“Us or We” stand for Tide and Dell. iPods, SUVs and cell phone ring tones. A precious few are happy, well adjusted and always productive. Most of us are not. We cherish majestic homes, 
exercise clubs, personal trainers. Airline miles, first class upgrades, airport club rooms and special floor in hotels. Foie Gras, Beluga Caviar, Kobe Beef, 1945 Mouton-Rothschild, stirred, not shaken martinis on Bombay Sapphire and a spot of BC’s finest. Prozac, Prada, Nike, Viagra.
Illegal gardeners, cooks and nannies. Insider trading, child porn, spousal abuse, congressional pages. Cancer, heart pacers, redone faces, improved waistlines, hairlines and butt lines. The Sundance Cirque Lodge, The Causeway Therapeutic Center or perhaps the Sunset Malibu when things get out of hand? “We” congest the streets, cause global warming, kill thousands of species, make wars, snort cocaine and generally don’t care for one another.
Only the most stupid of us believe in useless stereotyping as shown above. There is not a single individual fitting the portrait. Some may come closer than others but labeling just does not work. Not all enjoy Beluga Caviar. Some prefer ballpark hot dogs and drive a Chevy Aveo. Others like Iranian Caviar better. Personally, I like spaghetti. I’m not much of a Prada guy.
Let’s consider the “Us” camp and some of its members. By most standards, membership includes strange individuals such as Howard Hughes, Michael Jackson, Paris Hilton, Jerry Springer, Kobe Bryant, George W. Bush, Howard Stern, Ralph Nader, Ross Perot, Boris Yeltsin, Ann Coulter, Al Gore, Arnold Schwarzenegger, Fred Flintstone and George Karl. All defy classification. They are different but have one thing in common. These people do not produce Art.
The “Us” segment contains untold numbers of serious, legitimate artists. Writers, painters, composers, topless dancers, photographers and maybe a blogger or two. Occasionally well adjusted, safe and sound, they go about the business of art. Some art 
may be a bit bland compared to the far corners of expressive power. It truly takes all kinds. Take Smooth Jazz and New Age Flutists – great companions with Prozac. No wonder the true Disadvantaged scream in the night. Their art is rarely bland.
To see the spread from the bland to the somewhat adventurous and, by exception, the truly original, compare, say, Perry Como and Janis Joplin. Doris Day compared to Eve Ensler. Miss Marple and John Barth. Rock Hudson and Sean Penn. Tom Clancy and Kurt Vonnegut. Amy Grant versus Eminem. Norman Rockwell against Pablo Picasso. John Grisham versus Norman Mailer. Burt Bacharach and Arnold Schoenberg. Ebert against Susan Sontag. Ricky Martin versus John Cage. David Sanborn versus John Coltrane. Janet Jackson and Jennifer Jason Leigh. Anita Baker against Anita O’Day. Danielle Steel versus Andrea Barrett.
Perhaps not all of the above are well adjusted. Some are or were addicted to various things. Not all are nice people. Some of the art is truly awful and most is very bland. None of them live on the street or reside in mental institutions. Some may feel at home in rehab centers but that’s not quite the same thing. This essay is not about these guys. This article is about the other ones: “them”.
Them
“They” stand for poverty, rage, illness, irresponsibility, insanity, and screams in the night. They are institutionalized, discarded, feared, deep-6ed, 86ed, banned, ignored, hidden, driven out of town. They look bad and smell bad. They are drunk, high, low, infected with lice, AIDS or TBC. A few are violent. They annoy, panhandle and give us evil eyes. Many are in jail, asylums or various concentration camps around the World. Or they would be if we establishment types could find the time to round them up. Being parasitic, they deserve no care, no breaks and no respect. Politicians safely can ignore them. They carry no political weight, do not lobby much of anything and receive no DC pork.
Mental Creativity
Mental illness, in particular manic-depression and creativity go well together. Famous examples include Ernest Hemingway, Robert Schumann, Virginia Woolf, Michelangelo, Diane Arbus and Lord Byron.
“Outsider Art” refers to the work of self-taught mentally ill or disadvantaged artists such as Delaine La Bas, Adolph Wolfli, Nek Chand, Ferdinand Cheval, Henry Darrger, Madge Gill, Alexander Lobanov, Martin Ramirez, Achilles Rizzoli and Judith Scott. The 1922 book “Artistry of the Mentally Ill” by Hans Prinzhorn identified the Ten Schizophrenic Masters: Karl Brendel, August Klotz, Peter Mogen, August Neter, Johann Knupfer, Victor Orth, Herman Bell, Heinrich Welz, Joseph Sell and Franz Pohl.
The six images close by in this section represent works by Outsider Artists. The top pencil drawing of a woman is by Madge Gill, an English artist guided by a spirit. She did thousands of drawings like the one shown here. The woman in the drawing may be Gill herself or a stillborn daughter.
Martin Ramirez, a Mexican who lived in California, did the Man on a Horse. Ramirez suffered from schizophrenia. After his death, the painting became quite valuable. This is unusual: most of these artists are or were institutionalized with their work neither shown publicly nor sold. Even after death, when often their work first came to light, little is made public.
The drawing of a huge dog with his tiny master is next. No doubt based on an accurate view of the world according to most dogs, the artist is Bill Traylor. He was born a slave in 1856 on a 
plantation near Benton, Alabama. He remained at the plantation till 1934, described as an illiterate farmer with some English vocabulary. He then worked on road gangs and was essentially homeless. So how come this man is viewed as one of the most important American artists?
From 1939 to 1942, Traylor worked the streets of Montgomery as a street artist. He was 83 when he started this artistic career, eventually producing around 1,800 drawings. Friends brought him drawing materials and others provided small favors such as food and an occasional roof. His first show was held in 1940 – ignored by Traylor who was busy drawing. His next show was held in 1942 at a local high school. By chance, his work caught the attention of the NYC Museum of Modern Art. The Museum attempted to buy some of the works but was angrily rejected. By 1943 Traylor moved north to his children. He died in 1947 and his work fell into the shadows for thirty five years.
In 1982, he was part of a landmark exhibition of Black American art. His work was rediscovered and he is now a regular feature of the art scene. Exhibitions include about some twenty across the South in the last 10 years. He recently was featured in England, Germany and Switzerland.
Adolf Wolfli, Resident Artist, Waldau Mental Asylum, Switzerland 1895-1930
Adolf Wolfli is perhaps the best known of the Outsider Artists. Born in 1864, he was a farmhand, a laborer and a convicted sex offender by the age of 31. At this point he was committed to the Asylum where he remained to his death in 1930. He was violent, subject to hallucinations and diagnosed as a schizophrenic.
He started drawing in 1899, but nothing is preserved till about 1905. Over the next twenty five years, he accumulated a remarkable output of an imaginary 
25,000 page autobiography and some 3,000 drawings and collages. Supported by some of the hospital staff, here is his established routine:
- “Every Monday morning Wölfli is given a new pencil and two large sheets of unprinted newsprint. The pencil is used up in two days; then he has to make do with the stubs he has saved or with whatever he can beg off someone else.”
- “He often writes with pieces only five to seven millimeters long and even with the broken-off points of lead, which he handles deftly, holding them between his fingernails. He carefully collects packing paper and any other paper he can get from the guards and patients in his area; otherwise he would run out of paper before the next Sunday night.”
- “At Christmas the house gives him a box of colored pencils, which lasts him two or three weeks at the most.”
He achieved a bit of fame in 1921 when he was the subject of an attention getting publication stating a mentally ill person can be a serious artist. In 1922, he was one of several subjects in Prinzhorn’s book mentioned above. The publicity allowed him to sell some drawings.
Yet that ripple did not last long and it was not till 1972 – forty two years after his death – that he was discovered by the world of art. His work started a remarkable tour through the world that included well over a hundred fifty exhibitions at locations such as the Museums of Fine Arts in Basel and Bern, Palais des Beaux-Arts, 
Brussels, Moderna Museet, Stockholm, Museum of Contemporary Art, Chicago, Institute of Contemporary Arts, London, Centre Georges Pompidou, Paris, Universities of California in Berkeley and Santa Barbara, Musee Picasso, Antibes, American Folk Art Museum, New York, Kunsthalle, Kiel, Scottish Art Council, Edinburgh, Berliner Museum, Berlin, Centre de Cultura Contemporania, Barcelona, Museum of Kyoto, Kyoto, Setagaya Art Museum, Tokyo and the Katonah Museum of Art, New York. This is just a sampling;
add many more museums, exhibition halls and galleries.
What about his work? Well, think an enormous collection of newsprint papers completely covered with text, drawings, symbols, poetry and musical annotations. Meticulously organized into volumes: Nine volumes of “From the Cradle to the Grave”, Seven volumes of “Geographic and Algebraic Books”, 3,000 pages of “Saint Adolf-Giant-Creation (allowing his nephew to conquer not only Earth but the entire Cosmos), six books of “St Adolf II” (his alter ego), six books of “Songs ands Dances”, four books on “Dances and Marches” and sixteen books and 8,404 pages on his “Funeral March”. Most of his drawings were part of the volumes but some, called bread art, were single sheet, occasionally sold and the basis of his modest early following.
The drawings are exhausting, epic, complex, grandiose, geometrical, adventurous, labyrinthine, mysterious, startling and based on an incredible imagination. He spent most of his mature life in an isolation cell, yet provided views on far reaching subjects he could not have observed through 
anything but imagination.
Here is a bit of trivia: Wolfli did his Campbell Soup Can (above) in 1929. Andy Warhol did his Can in 1964. It seems both of them liked the Tomato Soup. Warhol is the pop artist of fame. Wolfli is known for insanity. May the best man or image win.
Also interesting is the inclusion of musical annotations and hints. Recently, these annotations have been interpreted into actual performances. He is said to have inspired a range of musicians and composers. Here are a few words on the musical aspect of his work off his web site:
- “Naturally enough, the question whether Wölfli’s music can be played is asked again and again. The answer is yes, with some difficulty. Parts of the musical manuscripts of 1913 were analyzed in 1976 by Kjell Keller and Peter Streif and were performed. These are dances – as Wölfli indicates – waltzes, mazurkas, and polkas similar in their melody to folk music.”
- “How Wölfli acquired his knowledge of music and its signs and terms is not clear. He heard singing in the village church. Perhaps he himself sang along. There he could see song books from the eighteenth century with six-line staffs (explaining, perhaps, his continuous use of six lines in his musical notations). At festivities he heard dance music, and on military occasions he heard the marches he loved so well.”
- “More important than the concrete evaluation of his music notations is Wölfli’s concept of viewing and designing his whole oeuvre as a big musical composition. The basic element underlying his compositions and his whole oeuvre is rhythm. Rhythm pervades not only his music but his poems and prose, and there is also a distinctive rhythmic flow in his handwriting.”
Another curious aspect is that he apparently incorporated a detailed vocabulary into his work. This vocabulary included graphics such as birds, faces, decorative borders, snakes, musical staves and mandela shapes.
Adolf Wolfli’s creativity is only the beginning of his startling abilities. It is hard to even imagine what must have been going on in that isolated mind that astonishes a world about which he directly knew very little. There is only room here for a few of his drawings (above). Given the uniqueness of his work, I’ve prepared a short multimedia show of samples from his work, accompanied by his own music as interpreted recently. Hit the “Wolfli” button in the next segment and let the show roll.
The Case of Adolf Wolfli – A Multimedia Show
Sometimes, Outsider Artists are referred to as “Folk Artists”. Other descriptions include “brutish, rural, untrained, intuitive, menial, peasant, marginal, clumsy, naive, primitive, extreme, mental, elaborate and fantasy driven”. Personally, I don’t quite agree with any of these classifications. Considering that Outsider Art has become a commercially viable art form, some recent output might be described as opportunistic, simply bad or exploitative.
However, in the case of Wolfli, his music as interpreted in the show below is decidedly Swiss Folk style. Perhaps not all of us favor that particular music legacy but few among us can claim to simultaneously be writers of autobiographies, adventures, poetry, algebraic and geographic text books and symbolic essays plus be accomplished visual artists, draftsmen and illustrators plus be composers.
Hit the button for a rare glimpse of a long ago Outsider Artist and his quite strange world and who beat Andy Warhol to the Campbell Soup Can:
Finally
There are Outsider Music and Outsider Photography artists. Perhaps we have Outsider Postmen, Outsider Plumbers, Outsider Accountants and Outsider Neurosurgeons. Outsider Bloggers most likely are quite a large group. It depends on how you classify people. I suppose my point is that classifying people is a futile exercise. There are some trivial classifications that are real. If you lost a leg you are a one-legged individual. If you were born in Moscow, Idaho, you are an American citizen. But if you claim such classifications can be extended to your credit rating or artistic ability, then you are on a slippery slope.
On Reality 6: Mysteries of Photography
June 27, 2007
What’s mysterious about photography? The first photos were shot about 180 years ago. The conceptual process never changed: have light, see things, point camera, release shutter, make stored image visible and view results. Today’s tools are different and possibly more convenient. But tools do not make good photographs. The more sophisticated the gadgets, the greater the risk of misuse and disastrous results.
Great art does not depend on tools, technology, costly equipment, techniques, zone systems, rules-of-thirds, chemicals, digital chips, net worked cameras or any of these fabulous ways to divert attention 
from the real thing. Art does not depend on $30,000 digital backs or $15,000 lenses. Great art is the reflection of a laborious, deep and personal vision as realized by and flawlessly executed by a motivated, creative and original artist.
Art is about art. It’s a state of mind. It is a vision. It is mysterious and magical. It engages and spellbinds. It’s about inner life. It is about honesty and self discovery. It informs and challenges. It exposes, proves and documents. It can be vulgar, ugly, hateful, absurd, beautiful and poetic. That’s art. Let’s explore art.
The Mystery of Photography
The mystery of a great photograph is why and how it touches the photographer and especially an audience. Such a photograph is not just a piece of paper treated with light and chemicals or covered with ink applied using a stream of computer bits. It truly is a piece of magic, as is any real piece of art. 
It is often easy to look at a photo and exclaim “this is a great shot”. It’s much harder to say why that is the case. Then it’s even harder to go out and actually shoot a great photo, especially if you don’t know what makes a good photo in the first place.
The mysterious magic of a great photo does not just happen in a random fashion. You don’t suddenly take a walk and come back with a great photo. For one thing, you need to take a camera along, meaning you have some purpose which is a good start. Bringing that camera along may be subject to a deliberate and soul searching artistic vision. Then the probability of returning with some decent shots improves tremendously. Therein lays the subject of this essay.
The Metaphysical Process
To any photographer or artist, a soul searching vision is the life line. Consider Ansel Adams versus Henri Cartier-Bresson, both masters with hugely different, equally creative 
visions. One was a large format nature photographer and technical guru, the other a Leica street photographer and painter. One was deliberate in approach to the nth degree, the other hoped to encounter the split-second Decisive Moment. One took hours to set up a shot, the other achieved success in fractions of seconds. One spent endless time in the darkroom; the other viewed a simple camera as his only tool, spending no time in darkrooms. Both are legends. Both produced magic. Both approaches are valid.
However different these two approaches might seem, they share features such as: the images present a multi faceted, relevant and unique experience that reflects the artist’s creative vision and flawless execution. Hang on for details on this somewhat bold statement.
Visions, Light, Distortions and Dimensions
Here is the crudest possible perception of a photo: It is a static two dimensional image of a scene as it existed in the briefest moment in time. That characterization is not true in the simplest amateur point and shoot cases, much less in any photographic piece of art. 
The amateur may well successfully capture something of precious value to an audience. The fine art photo will probably be viewed by a wider audience, presenting a sophisticated, multidimensional and unique experience.
This essay contemplates what makes a great photo and what it takes to make one. I’m writing as a photographer, not a viewer. Hopefully, a viewer will get something out of it as well. This is not a technical how-to article. Look elsewhere for ideas on f stops, flash settings, rules of thirds, the zone system or Photoshop secrets. Instead, enjoy some rather unconventional ideas that reduce the mysteries of shooting great photos (for you) while preserving the magic (to your audience):
- Understand your vision. Explore it. Let it happen. Persist.
- Photography is about distortions, not reality. Use that.
- Light is the basis of all photography. Understand light.
- Photographs are multi-dimensional. Use that.
Simple, isn’t it. I’m just kidding. It’s really, really hard to shoot a good photograph. It’s really, really absurd to reduce the magic of art into a few simplistic “rules” as shown above. As you will find out, these simplistic rules are not simple at all. But they are doable and real.
About This Essay
The essay is split in two main parts: The Prerequisites and The Toolbox. The Prerequisites part discusses the various steps and thoughts that make creative and innovative photography possible. The Toolbox part reveals some rather unconventional tools that nevertheless are crucial in creative photography. The goal is to understand what
the heck I meant above in the introduction:
- The images present a multi faceted, relevant and unique experience that reflects the artist’s creative vision and flawless execution.
This is a very big post, containing the equivalence of almost 90 text pages, not counting the space of the images. Considering it might be hard to get through it all in one sitting, you may want to bookmark this page – in your browser or by using the bookmark button below.
I’ve included a navigation system to make it easier to get to whatever you may be mostly interested in. The Table of Content below is one part of that system. The other part is the many “TOC” buttons you’ll find after each section. Here is a sample:
Table of Contents
- On Reality 6: Mysteries of Photography
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- About This Essay
- Images in This Essay
- Prerequisites – Understand the Magic
- Execution – Build the Mysterious Toolbox
- Next and Previous
Images in This Essay
There are many images in this post. After all, this is a photo blog and I am a professional working photographer. The purposes of the chosen images are two fold: to demonstrate the mysterious magic of photography and to show examples of the various ideas in the essay. Some photographs are my own, others from a broad spectrum of photographers, most famous, some not.
You will notice many of the photos are film based and black and white. That is partly due to my own preference of this medium, but also because for historical reasons – many of the photographers lived in the fantastically creative black and white era. But the discussions make no distinction between film and digital, color or black and white. On the level of this essay, such distinctions are immaterial.
In a couple of places I illustrate the ideas of text using non photographic art – mostly paintings and some sculpture. This is not for convenience but to point out the parallels of various art forms. There are many media but art is art.
This blog, its design, text content (except quotes from others) and my own images and graphs are copyright © Leading Design, Inc 2006-2007. All Rights Reserved. I make absolutely no claims on images or quotes originating in other sources. All image copyrights belong to its owners.
Prerequisites – Understand the Magic
Success in any endeavor depends on self knowledge. In art, self knowledge often defines t
he artist’s work and is reflected in vision statements and the work processes. Some people require formal vision statements, detailed plans, rules and so forth. To others, it’s all an intuitive process. Right or left brain, there is a process. The photographer who understands visions and methodical executions is much more likely to shot and produce great and lasting photos.
Take wedding photographers, often following a written script: shoot bride; then bride and mother; add brother; add step father, grandmother and former boy friend…. Do Ceremony, Chicken Dinner, First Dance, Wedding Cake, Uncle Ben Ejected, Limo here, Limo there, Collect Fee and Get Out. Not much of a vision but certainly a partial plan.
Another extreme case is the amateur’s random path without a plan but with plenty of heart. Finally, consider the fine art photographer who spent years coming up with an original vision and who acts accordingly in a consistent manner. Guess who has 
the greatest chance of shooting something worthwhile to a knowledgeable audience.
Many of us look for the middle ground as we deal with the “process thing”, as the elder Bush might have put it. Formalize some aspects to keep on track, be flexible in other aspects to encourage new ideas. The process is vital; the form it takes is personal.
Whether on paper or in one’s head, the creative process depends on a few basics. I’m sure Ansel Adams (who had to write technical books about his processes and thought patterns) and Henri Cartier-Bresson (who neither wrote technical books, nor volunteered to verbalize his processes) both, consciously or not, considered many of the points to be covered below.
Be Artistic
Artistry contains two uniquely personal components. The first is creativity. Creativity drives artistic vision. The second is innovation. Innovation makes creative ideas become real, actual works of art. Most artists create art that is unique and very different from that of the next guy. Yet the basic creative thought patterns tend to be similar. Ansel Adams and Henri Cartier-Bresson created art with almost nothing in common except cameras were involved. But read some of their thoughts and you will find great similarities, not in everything but in spirit:
Ansel Adams said:
- In my mind’s eye, I visualize how a particular…. sight and feeling will appear on a print. If it excites me, there is a
good chance it will make a good photograph. It is an intuitive sense, an ability that comes from a lot of practice. - All I can do in my writing is to stimulate a certain amount of thought, clarify some technical facts and date my work. But when I preach sharpness, brilliancy, scale, etc., I am just mouthing words, because no words can really describe those terms and qualities it takes the actual print to say, “Here it is.”
- When I’m ready to make a photograph, I think I quite obviously see in my minds eye something that is not literally there in the true meaning of the word. I’m interested in something which is built up from within, rather than just extracted from without.
- Simply look with perceptive eyes at the world about you, and trust to your own reactions and convictions. Ask yourself: “Do these subjects move me to feel, think and dream? Can I visualize a print – my own personal statement of what I feel and want to convey – from the subject before me?
- I have often thought that if photography were difficult in the true sense of the term – meaning that the creation of a simple photograph would entail as much time and effort as the production of a good watercolor or etching – there would be a vast improvement in total output. The sheer ease with which we can produce a superficial image often leads to creative disaster.
Henri Cartier-Bresson said: 
- They asked me: “‘How do you make your pictures?” I was puzzled and I said, “I don’t know, it’s not important.”
- I prowled the streets all day, feeling very strung up and ready to pounce, determined to ‘trap’ life -to preserve life in the act of living. Above all, I craved to seize the whole essence, in the confines of one single photograph, of some situation that was in the process of unrolling itself before my eyes.
- This recognition, in real life, of a rhythm of surfaces, lines, and values is for me the essence of photography; composition should be a constant of preoccupation, being a simultaneous coalition – an organic coordination of visual elements.
- If the photographer succeeds in reflecting the exterior as well as interior world, his subjects appear as “in real life.” In order to achieve this, the photographer must respect the mood, become integrated into the environment, avoid all the tricks that destroy human truth, and also make the subject of the photo forget the camera and the person using it. Complicated equipment and lights get in the way of naive, un-posed subjects. What is more fleeting than the expression on a face?
- To me, photography is the simultaneous recognition, in a fraction of a second, of the significance of an event, as well as of a precise organisation of forms which give that event its proper expression. I believe that through the act of living, the discovery of oneself is made concurrently with the discovery of the world around us which can mould us, but which can also be affected by us. A balance must be established between these two worlds- the one inside us and the one outside us. As the result of a constant reciprocal process, both these worlds come to
form a single one. And it is this world that we must communicate. But this takes care only of the content of the picture. For me, content cannot be separated from form. By form, I mean the rigorous organisation of the interplay of surfaces, lines and values.
It is in this organisation alone that our conceptions and emotions become concrete and communicable. In photography, visual organisation can stem only from a developed instinct.
To both photographers, the making of a photograph is a spiritual act, an inner conviction and a desire to abstract essence beyond the material world. Neither of them mentions tools or techniques except to say those are not important. I’d imagine they would not agree on whether a particular photograph is great or not. They had vastly different approaches to just about any lower level photographic technique. But the basic creative thought patterns are quite similar. Let’s consult some other photographers:
Other Photographers Said:
- “A photograph is a secret about a secret. The more it tells you the less you
know.”; “What moves me about…what’s called technique…is that it comes from some mysterious deep place. I mean it can have something to do with the paper and the developer and all that stuff, but it comes mostly from some very deep choices somebody has made that take a long time and keep haunting them.”-Diane Arbus - The challenge for me has first been to see things as they are, whether a portrait, a city street, or a bouncing ball. In a word, I have tried to be objective. What I mean by objectivity is not the objectivity of a machine, but of a sensible human being with the mystery of personal selection at the heart of it. The second challenge has been to impose order onto the things seen and to supply the visual context and the intellectual framework – that to me is the art of photography. -Berenice Abbott
Here is some more wisdom:
- Let us first say what photography is not. A photograph is not a painting, a poem, a symphony, a dance. It is not just a pretty picture, not an exercise in contortionist techniques and sheer print quality. It is or should be a significant document, a penetrating statement, which can be described in a very simple term – selectivity. -Berenice Abbott
- “I discovered that while many photographers think alike when it comes to equipment and chemistry, there are seldom two who agree on anything when it comes to what constitutes a good image.”; “Great
photography is about depth of feeling, not depth of field.”; “Photography is not about cameras, gadgets and gismos. Photography is about photographers. A camera didn’t make a great picture any more than a typewriter wrote a great novel.” -Peter Adams - “What is right? Simply put, it is any assignment in which the photographer have significant spiritual stakes… spiritually driven work constitutes the core of a photographer’s contribution to culture.”; “What’s really important is to simplify. The work of most photographers would be improved immensely if they could do one thing: get rid of the extraneous. If you strive for simplicity, you are more likely to reach the viewer.”-William Albert Allard
Vastly different personalities, drastically different views of the world and what makes a good photo, the creative thinking remains quite similar. It got to be a point in there, somewhere.
Creativity: Visionary Ideas
Creativity is an inner engine that makes you discover unique ideas and concepts. Creative forces push 
you towards identifying new links between existing ideas or concepts. Creativity relies on motivation, divine intervention, cognitive processes, spirituality, social environments, your personality traits and chance. Creativity works with your genius, mental illness and humor. So goes one of many definitions.
No one agrees on a precise, general definition. No one seems able to measure this magical Creativity. Scientifically, no one knows if you are creative or not although intuitively most can tell right off. Someone made up a list of about sixty definitions of creativity. Most research suggests creativity and intelligence have very little in common. You can be a creative fool or an uncreative rocket scientist.
Pseudo-Creative Industries sell creative new age advertising, exotic car designs, unusual forks and self help books about being creative. Other industries want to monetize your creative ideas, inventions and art. Celebrity seminars, photography schools and art classes happily teach you their new, improved view of creativity, against a fee.
Mental Creativity
Mental illness, in particular manic-depression, and creativity seem to go well together. Famous examples include Ernest Hemingway, Robert Schumann, Virginia Woolf, Michelangelo, Diane Arbus and Lord Byron.
“Outsider Art” refers to the work of self-taught mentally ill or disadvantaged artists such as Delaine La Bas, Adolph Wolfli, Nek Chand, Ferdinand Cheval, Henry Darrger, Madge Gill, Alexander Lobanov, Martin Ramirez, Achilles Rizzoli and Judith Scott. The 1922 book “Artistry of the Mentally Ill” by Hans Prinzhorn identified the Ten Schizophrenic Masters: Karl Brendel, August Klotz, Peter Mogen, August Neter, Johann Knupfer, Victor Orth, Herman Bell, Heinrich Welz, Joseph Sell and Franz Pohl.
The six images close by in this section represent works by Outsider Artists. The top pencil drawing of a woman is by Madge Gill, an English artist guided by a spirit. She did thousands of drawings like the one shown here. The woman in the drawing may be Gill herself or a stillborn daughter.
Martin Ramirez, a Mexican who lived in California, did the Man on a Horse. Ramirez suffered from schizophrenia. After his death, the painting became quite valuable. This is unusual: most of these artists are or were institutionalized with their work neither shown publicly nor sold. Even after death, when often their work first came to light, little is made public.
The drawing of a huge dog with his tiny master is next. No doubt based on an accurate view of the world according to most dogs, the artist is Bill Traylor. He was born a slave in 1856 on a plantation near Benton, Alabama. He remained at the plantation till 1934, described as an illiterate farmer with some English vocabulary. He then worked on road gangs and was essentially homeless. So how come this man is viewed as one of the most important American artists?
From 1939 to 1942, Traylor worked the streets of Montgomery as a street artist. He was 83 when he started this artistic career, eventually producing around 1,800 drawings. Friends brought him drawing materials and others provided small favors such as food and an occasional roof. His first show was held in 1940 – ignored by Traylor who was busy drawing. His next show was held in 1942 at a local high school. By chance, his work caught the attention of the NYC Museum of Modern Art. The Museum attempted to buy some of the works but was angrily rejected. By 1943 Traylor moved north to his children. He died in 1947 and his work fell into the shadows for thirty five years.
In 1982, he was part of a landmark exhibition of Black American art. His work was rediscovered and he is now a regular feature of the art scene. Exhibitions include about some twenty across the South in the last 10 years. He recently was featured in England, Germany and Switzerland.
Adolf Wolfli, Resident Artist, Waldau Mental Asylum, Switzerland 1895-1930
Adolf Wolfli is perhaps the best known of the Outsider Artists. Born in 1864, he was a farmhand, a laborer and a convicted sex offender by the age of 31. At this point he was committed to the Asylum where he remained to his death in 1930. He was violent, subject to hallucinations and diagnosed as a schizophrenic.
He started drawing in 1899, but nothing is preserved till about 1905. Over the next twenty five years, he accumulated a remarkable output of an imaginary 25,000 page autobiography and some 3,000 drawings and collages. Supported by some of the hospital staff, here is his established routine:
- “Every Monday morning Wölfli is given a new pencil and two large sheets of unprinted newsprint. The pencil is used up in two days; then he has to make do with the stubs he has saved or with whatever he can beg off someone else.”
- “He often writes with pieces only five to seven millimeters long and even with the broken-off points of lead, which he handles deftly, holding them between his fingernails. He carefully collects packing paper and any other paper he can get from the guards and patients in his area; otherwise he would run out of paper before the next Sunday night.”
- “At Christmas the house gives him a box of colored pencils, which lasts him two or three weeks at the most.”
He achieved a bit of fame in 1921 when he was the subject of an attention getting publication stating a mentally ill person can be a serious artist. In 1922, he was one of several subjects in Prinzhorn’s book mentioned above. The publicity allowed him to sell some drawings.
Yet that ripple did not last long and it was not till 1972 – forty two years after his death – that he was discovered by the world of art. His work started a remarkable tour through the world that included well over a hundred fifty exhibitions at locations such as the Museums of Fine Arts in Basel and Bern, Palais des Beaux-Arts, Brussels, Moderna Museet, Stockholm, Museum of Contemporary Art, Chicago, Institute of Contemporary Arts, London, Centre Georges Pompidou, Paris, Universities of California in Berkeley and Santa Barbara, Musee Picasso, Antibes, American Folk Art Museum, New York, Kunsthalle, Kiel, Scottish Art Council, Edinburgh, Berliner Museum, Berlin, Centre de Cultura Contemporania, Barcelona, Museum of Kyoto, Kyoto, Setagaya Art Museum, Tokyo and the Katonah Museum of Art, New York. This is just a sampling;
add many more museums, exhibition halls and galleries.
What about his work? Well, think an enormous collection of newsprint papers completely covered with text, drawings, symbols, poetry and musical annotations. Meticulously organized into volumes: Nine volumes of “From the Cradle to the Grave”, Seven volumes of “Geographic and Algebraic Books”, 3,000 pages of “Saint Adolf-Giant-Creation (allowing his nephew to conquer not only Earth but the entire Cosmos), six books of “St Adolf II” (his alter ego), six books of “Songs ands Dances”, four books on “Dances and Marches” and sixteen books and 8,404 pages on his “Funeral March”. Most of his drawings were part of the volumes but some, called bread art, were single sheet, occasionally sold and the basis of his modest early following.
The drawings are exhausting, epic, complex, grandiose, geometrical, adventurous, labyrinthine, mysterious, startling and based on an incredible imagination. He spent most of his mature life in an isolation cell, yet provided views on far reaching subjects he could not have observed through anything but imagination.
Here is a bit of trivia: Wolfli did his Campbell Soup Can (above) in 1929. Andy Warhol did his Can in 1964. It seems both of them liked the Tomato Soup. Warhol is the pop artist of fame. Wolfli is known for insanity. May the best man or image win.
Also interesting is the inclusion of musical annotations and hints. Recently, these annotations have been interpreted into actual performances. He is said to have inspired a range of musicians and composers. Here are a few words on the musical aspect of his work off his web site:
- “Naturally enough, the question whether Wölfli’s music can be played is asked again and again. The answer is yes, with some difficulty. Parts of the musical manuscripts of 1913 were analyzed in 1976 by Kjell Keller and Peter Streif and were performed. These are dances – as Wölfli indicates – waltzes, mazurkas, and polkas similar in their melody to folk music.”
- “How Wölfli acquired his knowledge of music and its signs and terms is not clear. He heard singing in the village church. Perhaps he himself sang along. There he could see song books from the eighteenth century with six-line staffs (explaining, perhaps, his continuous use of six lines in his musical notations). At festivities he heard dance music, and on military occasions he heard the marches he loved so well.”
- “More important than the concrete evaluation of his music notations is Wölfli’s concept of viewing and designing his whole oeuvre as a big musical composition. The basic element underlying his compositions and his whole oeuvre is rhythm. Rhythm pervades not only his music but his poems and prose, and there is also a distinctive rhythmic flow in his handwriting.”
Another curious aspect is that he apparently incorporated a detailed vocabulary into his work. This vocabulary included graphics such as birds, faces, decorative borders, snakes, musical staves and mandela shapes.
Adolf Wolfli’s creativity is only the beginning of his startling abilities. It is hard to even imagine what must have been going on in that isolated mind that astonishes a world about which he directly knew very little. There is only room here for three of his drawings (above). Given the uniqueness of his work, I’ve prepared a short multimedia show of samples from his work, accompanied by his own music as interpreted recently. Hit the “Wolfli” button in the next segment and let the show roll.
The Case of Adolf Wolfli – A Multimedia Show
Sometimes, Outsider Artists are referred to as “Folk Artists”. Other descriptions include “brutish, rural, untrained, intuitive, menial, peasant, marginal, clumsy, naive, primitive, extreme, mental, elaborate and fantasy driven”. Personally, I don’t quite agree with any of these classifications. Considering that Outsider Art has become a commercially viable art form, some recent output might be described as opportunistic, simply bad or exploitative.
However, in the case of Wolfli, his music as interpreted in the show below is decidedly Swiss Folk style. Perhaps not all of us favor that particular music legacy but few among us can claim to simultaneously be writers of autobiographies, adventures, poetry, algebraic and geographic text books and symbolic essays plus be accomplished visual artists, draftsmen and illustrators plus be composers.
Hit the button for a rare glimpse of a long ago Outsider Artist and his quite strange world and who beat Andy Warhol to the Campbell Soup Can:
There are, of course, Outsider Music and Outsider Photography artists. Perhaps we have Outsider Postmen, Outsider Plumbers, Outsider Accountants and Outsider Neurosurgeons. Outsider Bloggers most likely is quite a large group.
Creativity Continued
Creativity Reviewed
The digression into Outsider Art shows how creativity can thrive on the fringes of society, far from the sacred halls of traditional art. It is not owned by any population strata: it makes no difference if you are rich or not, intelligent or not, mentally sound or not, physically well or not or trained or not. Artistic creativity surfaces where least expected. Being on the fringes does not mean the lack of ordinary artistic features such as clear cut 
visions and painstaking execution. Wolfli, for instance, was immaculate in both vision and execution. So was Bill Traylor and no doubt most others in the Outsider Art school. I’d suggest the label “Outsider” to be dumped at first occasion.
Perhaps none of the above is terribly important to you as an artist. To you, creativity is a deeply personal center that does not really require definitions or the interference by others. It is about you, no one else. It is your personal realm. It is your art. It is your way of recognizing and developing a multi faceted view of the world. Nothing is easy about creativity – your unique artistic and creative vision requires honesty, self discovery and a clear purpose. It’s hard, takes a lot of practice and leads to many frustrating dead ends.
You may be right about the personal aspect of creativity. But no one exists in isolation and most creative ideas are influenced by outside factors. Probably, your creative mind benefits from the widest exposure to the creativity of others and to experiences in general.
The worst case scenario is the ease of lazily overlooking the “vision thing” as the elder Bush put it, proceeding to completely ignore it in favor of lines in the sand. This disability he passed on to his president son who no doubt believes creativity is a four letter word. Creativity is not for everyone. Arthur Schlesinger differed and wrote about the ultimate leadership:
- “The president of the United States”, wrote Henry Adams, “resembles the commander of a ship at sea. He must have a helm to grab, a course to steer, a port to seek.”
- The Constitution awards presidents the helm, but creative presidents must possess and communicate the direction in which they propose to take the country. The port they seek is what the first President Bush dismissively called “the vision thing.”
- “The presidency”, FDR said, “is not merely an administrative office. That’s the least of it. It is more than an engineering job, efficient or inefficient. It is predominantly a place of moral leadership. All our great presidents were leaders of thought at times when certain historic ideas in the life of the nation had to be clarified.” In other words, they were possessed by their visions.
Here we have a helm to grab, a course to steer, a port to seek and a direction to follow while discarding engineering and administration and acknowledging historic ideas and 
moral leadership. Pretentious maybe, visions are not limited to artistic endeavors. Much of life depends on the creative visions of a few. Make sure you are one of those few as it relates to your world, artistic or not. To artists, the lack of a creative vision means artistic life is dead in the water – no helm, no port.
A vision is not an analytical notion; it has a strong emotional component. It can reveal very personal insights into where you are mentally and emotionally. You cannot truly shoot a happy documentary unless you actually are happy. The emotional context influences and might steer your personal connection with a particular subject. If you hate clear cutting, then that should be reflected in your images of clear cutting. Your emotional stance relates to another vital concept: honesty. If you aren’t convinced your vision is truly honest and reflecting your true convictions, then it is unlikely you will convince anyone else. You end up being or at least looking like a fake.
Creative Artists
Creativity is never static; it evolves in different directions and changes over time. Take Pablo Picasso and his periods: the Blue, Rose, African, Analytical Cubism, Synthetic 
Cubism, Classicism and Surreal Periods. Igor Stravinsky, shocking audiences, covered a vast musical landscape with his Russian, Neoclassical and Serial Phases. Arnold Schoenberg went from late Romanticism to Twelve Tone Music without stumbling one bit although perhaps his audience did.
In the same vein, Cartier-Bresson covered Cubism, Surrealism, went through an African Period, returned to Surrealism, became the Leica symbol in his cross-Europe Treks, moved into photo journalism, founded Magnum Photos (with, among others Robert Capa) leading to his Indian, Chinese, Mexican and East Indies Periods followed by refining the Decisive Moment idea (more later). Then he abandoned photography in favor of painting for the last 30 years of his life.
Leni Riefenstahl was a dancer, actress, film producer, director and a photographer. Starting as a dancer, she moved on to star in the 1920s German Mountain soap operas, 
climbed her way to her own production company, became a Nazi (later denied), a friend of Hitler, covered Nazi Party conventions and the 1936 Berlin Olympics as a documentary film maker and an artistic symbol of Nazi propaganda. Her film work was visually and artistically stunning. After a short imprisonment following the war, she became a Non-Nazi and gravitated into photography; no doubt a camera was friendlier than post war movie distributors.
She achieved renewed fame with her African photos. In her late 70s, she learnt to scuba dive and turned to underwater photography (and some film work). An infamous liar, social climber and self serving turncoat, she was, to her death at 101, an incredibly talented and multi faceted artist.
Other artists stayed in more or less one arena: Robert Capa was the War Photographer. Ansel Adams became the f/64 Yosemite Valley Genius. Diane Arbus fame came from 
disturbing portraits of society’s fringe. Robert Mapplethorpe showed an in-your-face, explicit homoerotic scene. Cindy Sherman staged portraits, often starring herself. Annie Leibovitz made inventive, staged and much published portraits. Ralph Gibson redefined the photographic notion of symbolic simplicity.
Other one subject artists include Ingmar Bergman who introduced a brand of intuitive existentialism and dark misunderstandings of Lutheran faith to an unsuspecting audience. Olivier Messiaen made strange music resembling birdsong. Rolling Stones “Can’t Get No Satisfaction” in spite of trying for the last 42 years. The Beatles quit. Richard Wagner locked in High German Mysticism and Romance. Haydn and Mozart found their grove and mostly stayed there. Ernest Hemingway’s language of concise clarity never changed. Jean Paul Sartre worked his anti-bourgeois and philosophical way through communism, socialism, atheism, metaphysics, addictions and most 
importantly existentialism. Albert Camus followed essentially the same path. Sartre refused the Nobel Prize while Camus accepted it. Although the fame of Sartre and Camus may have declined, both were
enormously influential.
All of these artists are or were hugely creative and they made a difference. Each practiced his/her own version of art. I doubt many of them bothered putting vision statements down on paper but they certainly had a clear understanding of their art and their convictions. Without pursuing convictions, creativity and the associated vision, they would not be the legends they all are. Luckily, they also knew how to share the results with their audience which leads to the next topic: from vision to results.
The Case of Jeff Wall
Much of this section is a reprint of a preview to this post. Most of the material is updated. Use the button below if you wish to bypass this section. Otherwise, just keep reading.
Jeff Wall is a photographer from Vancouver, BC. His unique art is exhibited and represented worldwide. He will serve us as a deep dive into the far reaches of creativity taken to an extreme. Jeff Wall is not your average photographer in any sense of the word. His 25 year career produced, so far, only about 130 images, sold in extremely limited editions for around $1 million each.
Jeff Wall is a fantastic example of the ultimate in creativity. He is also an example of Creativity (or Obsession) Gone Wild. To some he is a genius, to others a snap shooter on steroids. He is not included here to resolve that controversy. He is here as an example of what artistry and creativity can be in one person and how far it sometimes has to go. I believe serious photographers should think about what it would be like to be in Wall’s shoes and the commitment that implies. Then you can go back to your environment and perhaps think about it a little differently.
- Jeff Wall uses state-of-the art photographic and computer technology to create images that share the composition, scale and ambitions of the grandest historical paintings. His works often have the formality of documentary photography. He exclusively stages his scenes, sometimes reproducing or interpreting paintings or specific events.
- He does not seek the decisive moment or a picturesque scene. Nor does he create symmetry, lyricism, formal perfection or abstraction. He does not deceive you, hide his intentions or use the work of others except as visual inspiration. He avoids pop culture images and enjoys some irony.
- Each of his images is the result of immensely elaborate creative explorations. He may spend from weeks to years on completing a single image. He never repeats himself and is always unique. He tells the obvious story or none at all.
- The subjects range from very complex to surprisingly simple, even banal “every day” slices of life. He moves from landscape and street photography to still life and genre painting, to Japanese woodblock prints and medical illustration, to Impressionist and Baroque painting.
- He views himself as part painter, part movie director and part photographer, all three being part, in his opinion, of a single pictorial tradition. Some images are shot on location, others in his studio. The process may include paid actors and consultants such as marine biologists, stage builders and Hollywood special effects experts.
- His images are very large even considering his frequent use of large format cameras and medium format Hasselblads – often in the order of 6 feet by 6 feet or 2*2 meters. Some measure 10 feet by 16 feet. The people in the images are often life-size. He can combine hundreds of images into one. The images may be prints (traditional or inkjet) or transparencies mounted in light boxes.
Here is a sample of Jeff Wall’s art – “A View from an Apartment (2004-2005)” – a carefully arranged everyday scene where the harbor in the window contrasts with the indoor tranquility: 
The present material partially depends on an outstanding article, dated 2007-02-25 and titled The Luminist, published in New York Times by Arthur Lubow. This original article is outstanding. I hope my summary, additions and reorganization hasn’t completely destroyed the spirit of it.
Images
“The Destroyed Room,” shows a vandalized bedroom. It was made in 1978 as his wife, Jeannette, had left him temporarily for another man. The ransacked room contains a heap of women’s clothing. The violence directed against a woman’s possessions acknowledges feminist art criticism. Wall used his absent wife’s clothing to construct the scene. “I borrowed her clothes because we were still on good terms and she had the good clothes,” he said. You can easily detect the scene is staged in a studio – check the door and the window. There is no deception. 
Wall based the image on a 19th-century painting, “The Death of Sardanapalus” by Delacroix. Sardanapalus, an Assyrian king, defeated in war, destroyed his court and harem. The influence is obvious in the diagonal lines and the rich, red palette. Wall wants you to see the reference to the painting:
Despite Delacroix and feminist art criticism, is this about a rejected husband’s anger? Wall sidesteps. “I don’t find my own experiences very interesting. I find my observations interesting. Maybe that’s why I’m a photographer. Maybe an observation is an experience that means more to you than other experiences.”
“Picture for Women” (1979) interprets Manet’s masterpiece “A Bar at the Folies-Bergère” by changing the setting to a photographer’s studio. In Manet’s painting, the central figure, a barmaid with downcast eyes, receives a gaze from the male customer reflected in the upper right corner of the mirror behind her. The customer is located in an impossible perspective that simulates the one occupied by the viewer of the painting. The key features are the male gaze by itself, the relationship towards the female and the viewer as an active, involved onlooker. 
When Wall composed his photograph, he set his camera, seen as a mirror reflection, at the center; the woman stands at the left, coolly studying the camera and the photographer beside it. The camera and its operator become the central subject of the picture and the object of feminine scrutiny. Wall mimicked the receding globe lights of the Folies-Bergère bar into the overhead bulbs, deepening the space in the photo as Manet did in his painting.
There are some common elements in the two images. But they are so vastly different it is hard to see a real relationship between the two. The warm intimacy of Manet contrasts too much with Wall’s cold, stark image. Manet shows a servant engaged by a probing Parisian male while the Wall image allure to an antagonistic relationship between the two characters without any joy whatsoever.
Dead Soviet Soldiers in Afghanistan 1992
Wall created an elaborate battle scene based on the Soviet Union’s conflict with Afghanistan in the 1980s. The image is old-fashioned, as if just exhumed from a war museum. Then you notice that this is a macabre vision: the dead Soviet soldiers strewn about are all awake — laughing, crying and fingering their wounds.
Given his propensity for finding guidance in history, here are two possible inspirations, both famous and real but without the laughing part. The left hand image is from the aftermath of the American Civil War Gettysburg Battle. The right hand photo, from the Crimean War 1855 by Roger Fenton, is called “Valley of the Shadow of Death”. Fenton was the first known war photographer. He did not show dead soldiers, as opposed by his slightly later American counterparts. He said of this image: ” …in coming to a ravine called the valley of death, the sight passed all imagination: round shot and shell lay like a stream at the bottom of the hollow all the way down, you could not walk without treading upon them…”.
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The two images above are just samples of photos that bear some resemblance to Wall’s War study of the strange and absurd. There are many more similar images. Clearly, photographers have a rather morbid (sordid?) interest in the horrors of war. Moreover, the general public enthusiastically seeks out the most graphic war images possible. I know because my “Artistic Awareness System” tracks such trends using real data. Seeing both the supply and the demand side, I can’t help feeling a bit uneasy. Why are those alive so fascinated with the dead?
A Sudden Gust of Wind (After Hokusai) 1993
“A Sudden Gust of Wind” is based on a famous Hokusai print in which several travelers are buffeted by unexpected turbulence that sends the sheets of a manuscript spiraling through the air. He used more than a hundred shots in the painstaking composition of the final 12-foot-long picture.
Here is the Hokusai wood print:
As opposed to the Manet case, the Wall image is great if seen in isolation. You may still ask yourself what is the purpose of mimicking (copying? plagiarizing?) another image? In this case, the two pictures are closely related – both are lovely. Looking at them close together is confusing.
Documentary-style photographs of old, ordinary and neglected spaces and cleaning areas are longstanding parts of Wall’s work. “Diagonal Composition” explore the still-life genre with inspiration from early twentieth-century art, particularly the abstract images of artists such as El Lissitzky, Theo van Doesburg, and Alexander Rodchenko, whose paintings typically comprised grids of horizontal, vertical and diagonal lines.
The image is a modest social statement: time left the surfaces scarred and degraded, symbolizing lives gone by. Wall calls it ‘the un attributed anonymous poetry of the world’. His social and activist statements are generally quite mild and subtle, perhaps in line with being Canadian.
Diagonal Composition No 2 1998
The perspective, composition and staging in this image are as elaborate as any of Wall’s works. It shows the corner of a sink, a rough wooden shelf and a pale green wall. To the right a small stick of plywood lays on top of a white rubber glove. It is placed at an acute angle to the sink. Just left of center, the dark side of the sink produces diagonal lines. The light linoleum above has traces of glue around it, breaking up the straight lines dominated by the molding, the diagonal trend of the work top, the shelf, the linoleum and the little plywood stick.
No doubt a lot of work went into this image. I find the composition lacking in any kind of interest. The perspective is too bland, especially compared to the more daring one in No 1 above.
Certainly complex, the “Flooded Grave” required nearly two years of work. It shows a freshly dug, open grave filled not only with water but also with orange starfish and sea urchins. The image is viewed as hallucinatory, strange, poetic and surrealist. The scene combines images from two sodden Vancouver cemeteries with photographs of a living aquatic system created in his studio.
Wall kept a large custom-built aquarium in his studio for more than six months. Two retained marine biologists caught sea anemones, sea urchins and octopuses from a single offshore spot. “I wanted to make it just like a moment in time undersea, not a compendium or display,” Wall explains. “I wanted to make it as real as I could.”
Wall likes going to extraordinary lengths. “The artistry of doing something is just fascinating,” he says. “If you don’t like artistry, why are you an artist? It’s fun.”
After “Invisible Man” by Ralph Ellison, the Prologue 1999-2000
Ralph Ellison’s 1952 novel “Invisible Man” is about a black man who, during a street riot, escapes into a forgotten room in the cellar of a large apartment building in New York and decides to stay there, living in hiding. The novel begins with a description of the man’s home with its ceiling covered with 1,369 illegally connected light bulbs. 
The image is an over-the-top re-creation of the light intensive basement dwelling of Ellison’s character. The photomontages are invisible without being truly hidden. The chaotic mass of details is staged to the extreme. Positioning is elaborate, precise and overdone. Its incredibly cluttered and overcrowded nature is claustrophobic: maybe the whole place will cave in. Yet there is some feeling of space because the bottom foreground is somewhat less overcrowded than the absurd ceiling.
Wall devoted a full year to “In Front of a Nightclub” – a picture of young people standing outside a Vancouver club at night. The shoot took so long because the club Wall found is located on a heavily trafficked thoroughfare. It could not be photographed as he wished. There simply was no place for him to stand with his tripod and large-format camera.
He had the club exterior – the columns and grille, the facade, gum-spotted sidewalk and concrete curb – reconstructed in a studio. One assistant worked for six months constructing the set. “Of course, you can’t see everything he did, but that doesn’t matter,” Wall says. “There is dirt and moss growing in the cracks where the bottom of the building is crumbling, but you can’t see it. The discoloration of the sidewalk is extremely accurate, and it took many layers of application. Wall placed his strobes in the precise locations occupied by the street lamps and other lights that shine opposite the real nightclub. 
He and his assistants parked outside the club on several nights and took 300 or 400 snapshots of the kids gathered there. Wall checked the photos for characters and clustering he liked. Then he hired 40 extras from a casting agency. Dividing them into two groups and giving them general directions, he photographed them over the course of a month on alternate nights. “People’s metabolism is different at night, their coloring is different,” he explains. For each group he finished with only one frame that satisfied him. “You only need one,” he points out. He digitally combined the two photos of the crowd with a third one of the building into his final picture.
On a damp winter morning, 20 well-used men hung at a bleak Vancouver cash corner. Wall stands behind a tripod-mounted camera, patiently waiting for his vision of men waiting at a cash corner to come true. He had hired the laborers at an actual cash corner where the men normally hung out and bused them to the shooting location, a cash corner stand-in. The men waited for Wall to determine that the rain had become too heavy, the light too bright or the prevailing mood too restless for him to obtain the feeling of suspended activity and diffused expectancy that he sought in the picture.
He was prepared to come here, day after day, for several weeks. On any given morning, typically after three hours elapsed, he would adjourn until the next day. The men received their paychecks of 82 Canadian dollars and got back into the bus. “Men Waiting” is a small-scale Wall production in spite of its cast of 20 laborers plus Wall himself, assistants and equipment, its two-week shoot and on-the-street location. The laborers alone ended up costing as much as $35,000.
The risk is that Wall will overly manipulate the hired hands, transforming them into puppets. Asked about the laborers, he said: “My pictures are obviously related to my own life. Why would I be interested in them otherwise? I’m not a sociologist. I must identify with these figures, even though I often don’t like them, I don’t even feel that sympathetic to them. But I must identify with them in some way because they keep coming into pictures that I want to make.” Wall was fascinated by “the physical animal energy that is present on the street and waiting to be disposed of.”
He plans for all contingencies and commands a shoot start to finish. Yet photography is never fully controllable. Unforeseen events will occur. Some events are beneficial, such as the recompose of “Man Waiting”, which, even so, took several days to create:
- In spite of his elaborate planning for “Men Waiting”, he changed the frame of the picture. One of the reasons he liked the location he had selected was a scraggly little tree (in the middle right of the final image) that had shed its leaves for winter. Further down the street was another tree, a giant fir (in the extreme right of the final image). After taking five days to find his camera position, he concluded that he couldn’t eliminate the unasked-for fir from the picture, but by including only part of the trunk, he would minimize it.
- On one of the first days of the shoot, the rain increased, and several of the men huddled beneath the evergreen for shelter. When that happened, Wall realized that the fir had a role to play in the picture after all. He changed the camera setup to encompass the entire trunk, allowing the crowd of men to continue to the edge of the picture and, by implication, beyond. “That tree bothered me all along,” he told me. “If it hadn’t rained hard, I might never have noticed it. Now I’ll just include it. It’s stronger for it.”
Throughout the shoot, he found undirected details — an umbrella stuck in the mud, a hooded head lowered — and choose to keep some. Speaking on a walkie-talkie, he would ask his three assistants to adjust the position and behavior of the waiting men. The final picture was structured by his artistic sense, but did account for the unpredictability of his living subjects. “You can’t make these things up,” he said.
The Storyteller:
What do the horizontal power lines do to the composition? Presumable related to trains of some sort, they break the composition without creating tension. The one or two tiny groups of story listeners fit well but the power lines destroy the picture. That’s my opinion.
Mimic:
This is a picture with a well stated, clear and relevant message. An immigrant “foreigner” worker is mocked racially by a redneck, trashy “citizen”. The worker knows well there is nothing to be done; it’s a battle he cannot win. The redneck knows well what he can get away with.
Techniques
He makes photographs that are intended to be experienced the way paintings are. “Most photographs cannot get looked at very often. They get exhausted. Great photographers have done it [their masterpiece] on the fly. It [the on the fly opportunity] doesn’t happen that often. I just wasn’t interested in doing that [the on the fly shooting]. I didn’t want to spend my time running around trying to find an event that could be made into a picture that would be good.”
Insomnia:
The art that he liked best, from the full-length portraits of Velázquez and Manet to the drip paintings of Jackson Pollock and the floor pieces of Carl Andre, engaged the viewer on a lifelike human scale. The paintings could be walked up to (or, in Andre’s case, onto) and moved away from. They held their own, on a wall or in a room. “If painting can be that scale and be effective, then a photograph ought to be effective at that size, too,” Wall concluded.
Jell-O:
In Spain, “I saw the Velázquez, Goya, Titian — I loved it and wanted to be part of it somehow,” he said. “Every time the bus stopped, you were looking out the window, and there was a sign in a light box. I began to think, it’s luminous, Velázquez was luminous and I’ll try it.” When he emerged in 1978 as a mature artist, he presented photographs equal in status with paintings. In sheer size, they were measured in feet, not inches.
He dislikes the way photographs are typically exhibited as small prints. “I don’t like the traditional 8 by 10,” he says. “They were done that size as displays for prints to run in books. It’s too shrunken, too compressed. When you’re making things to go on a wall, as I do, that seems too small.” Many of his images exceed several feet in any direction. Some are over 10 or even 15 feet wide.
An Octopus:
He desires the sharpness of large formats which comes close to what the ever-adjusting and compensating human eye perceives. The size of his images requires the highest possible level of sharpness. Such precision eludes the documentary photographer who shoots split-second moments. We know the grainy, blurry images of Frank, Weegee, Cartier-Bresson and somehow deduct these technical deficits are authentic. Grainy, blurry pictures may convey a desired mood, but they do not reflect authenticity.
Some Beans:
Early on, Wall sidestepped the challenges faces by street photographers: how to impose a technically satisfying formal composition on a subject that has to be captured instantaneously. Rather than hunt for material to photograph, he manufactured all his subject matter in the studio.
Very soon he moved out of the studio to shoot landscapes and street scenes on location. He looks for “the indeterminate American look”, which he says he can find by not looking for anything in particular. “You have to forget about the idea of the spirit of the place,” he says. “It’s one of the big, consoling myths of people who live nowhere.”
Using a large-format camera on a tripod severely constrains street photography. Beginning in 1982, he circumvented the problem by re-creating subjects using that he calls “cinematographic photography.” Typically, he would see something, often a small event with compressed human drama and political overtones. Rather than snap it, he would go home, think about this glimpse of everyday life or popular culture. If he wants to proceed, he hires performers to re-enact the scene.
Stumbling:
Does staging a street scene and then photographing it as if it had “really” occurred betray honesty in photography? “Not necessarily”, Wall says. “What an artist can do with photography isn’t bounded by the documentary impulse”. He points out that in visual arts only photographers and cinematographers are criticized for staging rather than directly recording scenes. Other arts always offer re-creations of the outside world.
By the late 1970s, Wall worked feverishly on the light-box transparencies that still are part of his artistic career. His images of the late 1970s and 1980s were enormous transparencies lit from behind by fluorescent bulbs. The “light box” format is similar to that typically used for advertising. Like a commercial light box, a Wall photograph grabs the viewer with its glowing presence and, unlike an advertisement, hold viewers with its richness of detail and harmony.
His use of a light-box format derived from advertising suggests a possible critical analysis of consumer culture: but no. “I was not especially interested in doing a critique of advertising — it was an accident.” His concern with the physical beauty of his images also set him apart from most of the contemporary avant-garde photographers and closer to the painters he admires.
Cardplayers:
He did his first one-man show in late 1978. He presented his exhibition as an “installation” rather than as a photography show. He put “The Destroyed Room” in the gallery front window, enclosed with a plasterboard wall. You could see it only from outside, where, especially after dark, it resembled an actual vandalized room. Before the show closed, the piece was purchased by the National Gallery of Canada, a great send-off to his career.
Digitalization and Special Effects
Wall no longer restricts himself to light boxes. Over the last decade, he acquired four small buildings in a drug-infested downtown Vancouver district. There, helped by two full-time assistants and others as needed, he develop and print all of his work.
The Vampires’ Picnic:
In his studio he recently staged a vampires’ lawn picnic and, extravagantly, a conversation among resurrected Soviet soldiers slain in Afghanistan. He imported Hollywood special-effects consultants as part of his team. “I used up a lot of blood,” he says. He quickly grew tired of these outlandish subjects, but computer technology remains an important part of his artistic arsenal. By converting his film exposures into digital files, Wall can then superimpose them invisibly and endlessly, often assembling a final image on film from many different shots.
He has begun making large, beautifully gradated black-and-white photographs on paper in the mid-’90s and more recently inkjet color prints. Many recent images, such as “Men waiting”, “Volunteer” and “Citizen” are presented in black and white, breaking his past reliance on color.
Volunteer:
Citizen:
Critique
Jeff Wall has a strong following both from the general art enthusiasts to professional curators and gallery operators. Some say his work revolutionized their view of art. But not everyone loves Jeff Wall’s work. One critical pool finds his obsessive micro management plain out of sight, not to mention a monumental waste of resources. Other critics find that his work lacks in depth and simply consists of elaborate snap-shots. Here is Walter Robinson:
- “The critics love his light boxes, which I think are obnoxious, and say his photos are beautiful, when I think they look like big snapshots — but I guess that’s the point of their being so laboriously constructed.”
- “Many of his images, much reproduced, are less than thrilling. ‘A Sudden Gust of Wind (after Hokusai)’ is a yawn, as is his illustration of a scene from Ralph Ellison’s ‘Invisible Man’, a set piece showing a shabby apartment with hundreds of light bulbs on the ceiling. ‘Dead Troops Talk’, a scene of fallen soldiers in Afghanistan, is in poor taste, to say the least.”
Other critics chime in:
Another critic says: he is an intellectually ambitious, morally earnest perfectionist navigating through avant-gardism. A control freak who smothers the life out of his picture, hung up on his process, he is seduced by the elaborateness of his techniques and the gorgeousness of his images. The effort to make viewers think hard in a Modernist way about the gaps and distortions inherent in perception is ignored.
Milk:
Another critic claims: his shift into narrative representation and pop versions of subject matter in the light boxes was a strategy to make conceptual art more communicative. It eventually became so grand and so glamorous, aimed so much at redeeming pictorial traditions, that the original intention was lost. Wall tries to do as a 21st-century photographer what 19th-century painters like Manet and Seurat did in their elaborate depictions of contemporary life which is a historically absurd undertaking. “His claim to be a new history painter is very problematic for me,” a critic says. “The pictures have become very overwhelmingly spectacular objects. There is a kind of Wagnerian Gesamtkunstwerk quality. You have the set and the narrative; all we are waiting for is the sound.”
My View
What do I think? First, to me it is impossible not to admire the immense creativity or at least magnitude of his visions and execution. Second, the dedication of spending weeks or years to find the perfect or near perfect image is a lesson to every photographer. Third, the combination of many expressive means, from large format cameras to digitalization to light boxes and huge prints with the references to other art forms is quite humbling; at least it is to me.
Just about everything he does makes sense – if you are him. His techniques are not for everyone but they should provide food for thought to any photographer. After all, no one imposes any techniques on anyone else. Although his influence on individual photographers is quite substantial, I won’t adopt his ways in my own work except as an inspiration to try new things.
A Fight on the Sidewalk:
My reaction to what counts – his images – is mixed. Admiring what it took to get there is not the same as falling in love with the result. The extreme staging leaves me with a feeling of aloofness and lack of spontaneousness. It is too deliberate and intellectual even if he intended it that way. Some of his subjects leave me wondering if they are worth the attention.
Why do I need to look at “A Fight on the Sidewalk” (above)? Especially if it is staged: the visual impact of the fight is lukewarm at best. To me, it could equally well be called “People Asleep on the Sidewalk”. The Rocky movies are safe in the fight department. Check out this movie scene (below) for more drama (I know – Rocky isn’t art and this scene is as staged as Wall’s is- but what the heck?):
His idea that photography should have equal standing to painting is fine even if it seems a bit defensive. Making photos look like paintings is by no means a new idea. It was very popular with British Victorian photographers in the mid to late 1800s, for instance. I can’t understand why that means the photos need to recreate an actual painting. What do the links to Delacroix, Manet or Robinson contribute to his images? Are the subjects “better” or more interesting because of these links? I doubt it. Speaking of influences:
Overpass:
The Overpass image above reminds me a bit of a Dorothea Lange (California 1934) Depression and Farm Agency photo (below) showing two men, clearly vagrants, walking down a dusty road, next to a huge roadside billboard, being the perfect juxtaposition, saying “Next Time, Try the Train”. That image is powerful indeed. The frustration, inequity and poverty of that piece of history are all perfectly clear. But the “Overpass” (above) does not have that power although it seems clear Lange’s photo is the blueprint. But where is the tension, contradiction or juxtaposition? Where are these guys heading? To the Hilton? To their annual Hawaii vacation? To pick apples in Western Washington? To deportation to Somalia? To a Soviet Gulag? Who knows and who cares. 
What exactly does “Men Waiting” tell us? I find the “Picture for Women” to be of little interest, especially when compared to Manet’s picture. “The Flooded Grave” is impressive in its many contradictions – but why? How are sea anemones, sea urchins and octopuses related to a Vancouver graveyard? A few subjects are, to me, utterly banal and uninteresting, such as “Overpass” and “The Storyteller”. Perhaps, so are those of other avant-gardists including, say, Andy Warhol with whom, I think, Wall has more in common than he has with Delacroix.
I do like quite a few images for what they are, not for the elaborate staging or art links: “Outside the Nightclub” is great, as are the “Milk” and “Mimic” images. I enjoy the “Octopus” and “Some Beans” scene and the “Sudden Gust of Wind”. The original “Diagonal Composition” is much more interesting than the later No. 2. “The Vampires Picnic” is intriguing.
I do not believe painting, cinematography and photography are of the same pictorial tradition, not in execution or in vision. Ultimately a photograph is the result of releasing a shutter, freezing a moment. That’s the uniqueness of photography. Combining a bunch of such moments into a new image perhaps resembles the brush strokes of a painting. It still does not change that frozen, unique moment that makes photography a standout.
That concludes the discussion of Jeff Wall’s work.
Innovation: Make It Happen
Jeff Wall and the Outsider Artists are two extremes of creativity. It is time to get back on our main track that perhaps is not quite as extreme but yet, hopefully, a challenge. Creativity is a very personal trait and so are visions. No creativity, no vision. No vision, no fame. No fame, no money (Go to Start). But once you have the vision, you must make it real, that is, actually produce some art!
The Process
The vision is clear and in your mind. The next step – execution – might be simple. Shoot the image and take the roll to the nearest super market developer. Or plug the memory 
card into your photo printer. Out comes the master piece. Possible, but it is not a very likely outcome. So let’s start over again.
It takes a process to translate the vision into a real life piece of art. This process may be intuitive or defined in formal detail. It can be based on technicalities such as equipment or items such as location, time of day or target audience. In most cases, existing and well known paths are good enough – not all of us must do it the Jeff Wall way. In other cases, the vision requires innovation for it to become reality.
The start to finish process plan requires effort but truly is a good idea. Without a clear path, the original vision will likely founder in random dead ends such as those New Years good intentions. “A monkey and a typewriter will eventually produce a Shakespeare play”. But monkeys do not come up with Shakespearean plays very often. Neither do amateur photographers frequently exhibit at Museums of Contemporary Art.
You consider and define every step in this process path. The path is always changing, improving or matching new visions. Every path involves trial and error and a lot of tinkering. Do not stop: it is never done – repeat as is needed. Then repeat some more, over and over. It’s a life long task.
Adding complexity to this endeavor, new ways of performing old tasks come along at a dizzying pace, all originally being the result of some one else’s innovative spirit. Not only is it hard to figure out the current path, the ground rules constantly change. Standing still is not an option – take the “digital revolution”:
- Companies no longer in the film camera business: Minolta, Kodak, Contax, Rollei, Olympus, Polaroid (sort of), Canon and Nikon (both almost), Kyocera, Mamiya – in fact, almost everyone left town. Iconic film camera makers going digital: Leica, Hasselblad and Mamiya. Iconic camera companies leaving the digital camera business: Kodak and Agfa. Digital life isn’t easy.
- Companies that dumped the film business: Agfa sold film busyness to AgfaPhoto which ended in bankruptcy within a year. 3M, Ilford (off an on), Kodak, (they wish) with perhaps only Fuji hanging on.
- Film Accessories, Chemicals, Dealers, Development and Processing Specialists going out of business – too many to count. Digital Kiosks, Internet and Retail Printing Businesses, Internet Photo Sharing Specialists entering, struggling and leaving (some) the image business – too many to count with competition our of sight.
- Commercial Image users (ad agencies etc.) requiring film based formats – almost none. Accepting or demanding digital images – almost all.
- Photographers still in the film business – more than anyone of sound mind would find believable. A reactionary bunch of bums, we are. We also favor 8-tracks, typewriters, employ secretaries, drive Beetles and smoke unfiltered Camels with our Wild Turkey breakfast.
Does the last point about photographers make you feel guilty? Heck, we deal with Art here – the painting business – colored pigment, fluid, an easel and a brush or two – has been around almost unchanged for about 32,000 years and sculptures (Big Rock or similar, chisels and heavy things) were first sold maybe 5,000 years ago after being initiated 23,000 years ago – why wouldn’t we photographers survive? With the right visions and execution, maybe we will.
Pre visualization
Pre visualization is a great tool to help defining the process although it means vastly different things to different people. First, we have visualizations, then the special case of pre visualization. 
Visualizations are common in our cultures. It’s used to communicate messages, concepts and abstract or concrete ideas in industry, science, engineering, education, multimedia and medicine. Computer graphics, drawings, diagrams, napkins and back of envelopes are some of the means. Visualization is prominent in meditation. Alternative health treatments might include visualization.
Pre visualization is a form of visualization that provides a view of a future outcome. The movie industry use pre visualization as a cheap method to check out movie scenes. Ad agencies use story boards in various forms. Most of us pre visualize – or perhaps fantasize about – future events, be it the review meeting with the boss, the next vacation or the Powerball winning number.
Pre visualization in some form is part of most photography. On the simplest level, most off us want the picture “to come out nice” or “better than last time” and we often take some steps, such as focusing, flash on, lens cap off and steady hands, etc., to improve the likelihood of that visualization.
Ansel Adams viewed pre visualization as a part of the Zone system: the scene of a potential photo is analyzed from a reflected light stand point. That analysis is coupled with a development and 
printing strategy. The end result (a print) is visualized even before the shutter is released. The process itself is reused and refined over and over.
My own version of pre visualization operates on two levels. On the lower level, I include the Adams Zone system. I practice it but not in all its intended detail – I’m closer to the more intuitive Cartier-Bresson school. The higher level focuses on your creative vision, applying it to an overall strategy for your shooting and processing sessions. This higher level does not just analyze light ranges, development tactics and printing tricks, it combines items such as story, composition, dimensions, mood, emotions and subject matter into a more complete view. My “City Night Scenes” sequences and my multimedia “Symphonie Noir” are examples of such a broadly pre visualized path.
Modern Times
First we had the digital revolution in photography with devastating effect on some and new opportunities for a few. Artistically, that revolution may not mean much, but the world started mass producing images that ended up in a brand new distribution and 
publishing media called the Internet. Cyberspace is littered with images. Not only do we have a billion (or whatever) amateur images: museums, agencies, galleries and individual artists got into the act, putting just about every photo, painting and last week’s grocery lists up for grabs on the net’s dedicated, shared web sites or on private sites.
Practically every artist – dead or alive, major or minor – has a web site, many very sophisticated and expensive. A particular artist may be represented on scores of web sites. The artist has little say about the use of the images beyond his/her private site. Photos are passed around, used and shared with no control or consideration of copyrights.
The big time entertainment companies have suffered the mp3 and video problem for years. The difference is they have about a billion more resources to fight piracy than do most photographers. Not even the billion dollars could beat the people happily sharing music around the globe. Remember a few years ago when record companies started to sue grand mothers and minors (etc.)? That sure was a PR winner – not. The fight is by no means over – companies push backwards, the people forwards.
There are millions of bloggers (such as me) that may comment, review or criticize any artist’s work without mercy. 1.4 million Web sites have some explicit connection to “Ansel Adams”, according to Google. “Henri Cartier-Bresson” is linked to 1.1 million sites. Below a million means you’re pretty much a nobody – bad luck to most artists who rather create 
art than optimize their web presence.
Never have so many images been printed, eBayed, Web2ed, newscast, talk showed, spammed, fixed, copied, blogged, stolen, podcast, voice mailed, downloaded, uploaded, emailed, serialized, peddled, YouTubed, chat roomed, eHarmonized, pdf’d, pirated, multi mediated, Flickr’d, socially networked, Bluetoothed, SMS’d, invented by Al Gore, narrated by Al Gore, evangelized by Al Gore or shared in any other of the thousands of ways humans miscommunicate these days.
Not only is the distribution and sale of images changing drastically, but the actual processing of images is changing too. Adobe is creating an online version of Photoshop. Scores of Net vendors provide professional printing at rock bottom prices. Other Internet vendors s
pecialize in supporting top quality self publishing. Specialized vendors provide just about any niche service ever thought of. Others pursue services no one ever thought or cared about. A search of “Photo processing” yields 1.1 million returns on Google. Narrowing it down to “Photo processing service” still lists 20,000 entries.
I won’t even touch the subject of society changing. The “war on terror”, the War on Arabs, the War on Iraq and Afghanistan (Korea, Iran, Syria…..), Global Warming, nuclear threats and the decline of human rights – the list is long. I do discuss my takes elsewhere.
Do your visions, plans and paths consider the mysterious ways of modern times? If not, think again. It’s better to benefit than being clobbered – not a trivial issue. Just sticking to the Internet, you better consider web design, eCommerce, RSS, Bookmarking, Flash, blogs, search engine optimization, eBay, AJAX, FLEX, XML, ASP and a myriad of other obscure technologies you probably never heard of or wanted to hear about.
See Start to Finish, Act Accordingly
Define the vision. Find the path to make it real. Execute. Exhibit the results. Reap the rewards. Is that simple enough? Well, there are a few other details to consider. But the 
intuitive view of understanding the simplest of path is a good start. Let’s build on that. Keep it simple.
I’ll borrow a technique from journalism to organize that path in more detail. It’s a simple technique – the Five W’s: Who, Why, What, Where and When. It is a way to conveniently organize the points I want to make. The 5W’s are used in many creative environments.
The 5W’s are often associated with a “How” item. The upcoming section “The Toolbox” is the “How” part. You may be surprised to find its two sub sections deal with “Distortions” and “Dimensions”. What’s that got to do with photography? Hang in here and you will see.
Who: The Human Angle
A painting takes hours, days or even years to complete as do sculptures and symphonies. Master painters and composers 
sometimes use students to complete parts of the work. Two or more people can collaborate writing a book. Literature Nobel Prize winners see their works translated into many languages by collaborative translators. Several people collaborate to produce one of Dale Chihuly’s glass sculptures. Jacqueline de Pre relied on Sir John Barbirolli and the London Symphony Orchestra when recording the most famous version ever of Elgar’s Cello Concerto. Rudy Van Gelder’s recording mastery contributed to legendary albums by Miles Davis, Thelonious Monk, Wayne Shorter, John Coltrane and countless others. Where would Mick Jagger be without Keith Richards, Ron Wood and Charlie Watts? Or where would California nrBritney Spears
and Paris Hilton without paparazzi?
But a photographer can’t rely on anyone in the crucial moment of taking a picture. Photography is unique in art as the critical moment truly is a one person event. Only one 
eye at a time can look through the view finder. There is only room for one finger on the shutter release. No one is with you at the crucial moment, when the shutter release is pressed. You are it. You alone created the image and it is yours.
Once the shutter closes, everything changes. You may be, or should be, in charge of the post-exposure process. You might have a team helping you. In commercial photography you work against a specification; various art directors, publishers, editors and accountants will unmercifully walk all over you. Photojournalists have bosses prone to smoking cigars and sneeringly dumping your stuff into the waste basket, next to last week’s Wild Turkey. In wedding photography you work for the bride who sometimes (often) blames the photographer for this loser of a groom she regrets ever setting her eyes on. She, as any client, can make your life quite difficult. 
They do, yet not one of them can take the magical moment away from you.
Many photographers never set a foot in a dark room (traditional or digital), relying on labs and assistants. Annie Leibovitz uses a small army of helpers to set up her portraiture stage. Jeff Wall hires scores of people for weeks as stage props. Robert Capa’s and Henri Cartier-Bresson’s work started and ended with their Leicas; others did the rest, sometimes with disastrous consequences. Ansel Adams used assistants but each image was the result of his own detailed plans and specifications (pre visualization) start to finish. A news or sport photographer submits his image and it appears, or not, in the paper after several reviews by editors. Lucky or rich photographers have assistants carry all the heavy equipment around.
Naturally, whether the whole show is yours start to finish or you have an army of assistants looking for guidance. Various clients testing your patience, there better be a coherent plan in place. But that is for later. For now, the final decision to fire the shutter is yours. Nothing permanent will exist till you make the decision. So you have all the power in the world in that particular moment. That power declines quite a bit once the release is triggered, so savior the moment for what it is worth.
Why: Rewards for the Industrious
We shoot because we expect a reward. The reward is a highly personal part of our photographic career. It means vastly different things from one individual to another. Rewards may be internal – such as the satisfaction of creating a piece of art or pursuing 
a worthy cause – or external – such as getting paid for the piece of art or receiving praise from critics.
Famous Icons
Some photographers never attempt to publish a single image but go around shooting for decades, being happy with internal rewards. After their death, sometimes the mass of images catches someone’s attention and suddenly the dead photographer is declared a genius. This, of course, is the exception and in most cases the images end up in a landfill. Eugene Atget received more fame and recognition after death. Angus McBean is another such example. Other artists from many art forms were not well known while alive: J. S. Bach, Carl von Clausewitz, Franz Schubert, Emily Dickinson and Paul Gauguin, Vincent van Gogh, Franz Kafka, most Outsider Artists and the tragedy of Anne Frank. 
A few photographers become icons in their life time: consider legends such as Ansel Adams, Robert Capa, Eddie Adams, Henri Cartier-Bresson or Alexander Gardner. Sometimes being an icon brings lots of money: take fashion photographers such as David Bailey, Guy Bourdin, Edgar de Evia, Annie Leibovitz, Terence Donovan, Horst P. Horst and Gordon Parks who did or do make fine money.
Sometimes an icon photographer receives “just” the admiration of some strata and remains largely unknown. Some are cult phenomena: Charles Gatewood, Robert Mapplethorpe, Chris Nelson and perhaps Diane Arbus fit at least partially in here. In other 
cases, the icon status means devotion to some cause, be it whales, Iraqi wars, inner city poverty, VA hospitals, African genocides or globalization. Entities such as Magnum Photos, the Farm Security Agency of 1935-44 (Walker Evans, Dorothea Lange, Gordon Parks and others) and National Geographic often explore(d) issues and causes.
Then we have the money sharks. We suffer paparazzi, ambulance chasers, tornado shooters, disaster specialists and National Enquirer forgeries. There is even a new term Waparazzi, standing for amateurs lucky enough to be present at some event, usually catastrophic, with their camera or cell phone shooting away. The videoed execution of Saddam Hussein is a good example. 9/11 and the 2004 tsunami are other examples of amateurs exploiting misery for money.
Ordinary People
To many, the reward is simply capturing memories for oneself, the family and others in a close knit circle. Millions merrily shoot their brother’s wedding, grandma’s 100th birthday, the twins’ high school graduation, the Acapulco vacation or Daddy testifying before the Ethics Committee and so forth. Memories provide long lasting rewards at 
a very modest cost.
Most photographers simply toil away at the photographic craft because they want to. Hard work, high hopes, little money, no fame, disillusion, 9-5, occasional successes and many failures dominate that life. No matter – they (we) do what they (we) love to do. That is not a bad reward and explains why millions of photographers choose a life style in relative poverty and even isolation.
Lastly, there is the never ending stream of hopefuls who never make it. They come and go, without ever experiencing the reward they dreamt of and perhaps felt entitled to. That is fine; we do need accountants, waiters, CEOs, coal miners and butchers. Photography as a career is not for everyone.
Where: Spatial Abstractions
The Location
The original subject of a photograph must be in front of the lens when the shutter is 
released. This rule is a unique and obvious feature of photography. Other art forms do not have such a restriction. A painter may paint offsite in a studio from memory, photos or sketches. Music and sculptures do not usually even have a tie to a specific location.
There are exceptions to this rule. In photography, combining existing subjects can lead new subjects. This normally happens in an offsite lab. That’s why I said “original subject” above. Music may have a strong regional root, such as Brazilian Samba or Alpine Yodeling. Likewise sculptures might build on Greek mythology, the 1906 Olympics or the 1945 Iwo Jima Flag Raising. A photo may have such roots as well. OK, that’s a point but not very exciting, let’s move on.
If you have the vision and the requirements firmly in mind, the location of your shoot may well be a no brainier, at least in broad terms. When Leni Riefenstahl found her African vision, the answer obviously was – go to Africa. But Africa is a big place – did she 
mean downtown Johannesburg, Congo’s gorilla habitats, Sahara Bedouin tribes, Kenya safaris, Darfur famines, Rwanda genocides or what? As it turns out, her focus was on “straight day time, outdoor color portraits of individuals from the Nuba tribe, onsite in Sudan”. The vision needs to be quite specific if it is to be useful.
It’s easy to allow the vision be imprecise, letting you go out on unfocused fishing expeditions. For instance, one of my visions focuses on low light, usually night time, subjects. What does that mean? Is it shooting the moon, July 4th fireworks or New Year’s Festivities? Perhaps the goal is to set up long exposures catching some dim scene or to fire off flashes on sleeping homeless? Maybe it is chasing African wildlife at their nocturnal watering hole? Well, none of that. My actual vision is quite explicit in terms of when and where.
Staging the Scene
You have the location, now what do you do? The issue is staging. Some are uncomfortable with the very word “staging” as in faking. In reality, the only type of photography disallowing staging is photojournalism and even that is on 
shaky grounds. There are many very famous examples of “journalistic” photos that to at least some degree were staged: Capa’s dying Spanish soldier, Eddie Adams’ Saigon execution or Rosenthal’s Iwo Jima flag rising (all of these cases are debated) are just three possible examples.
In just about all other styles of photography, staging is required, optional or allowed. That does not mean all photos are staged but, more often than not, they are. Take commercial photography (advertising, fashion, food etc.) that is just about always heavily staged. Documentary photography and portraits may or may not be staged. Technical photography (industrial, medical or forensic) is staged in the sense the specifications are very tight regardless of the actual shooting environment.
When shooting your brother’s wedding and you ask Uncle Joe to please stop fooling around; you’re staging the shot. Making you son repeat that home run is staging. So is that tricky shot you took proving the officer could not possible see your illegal turn. Moving Egyptian pyramids around in a news photo is much undesired staging. So is adding extra smoke to the Beirut skyline after an Israeli attack. The Soviets famously removed suddenly undesired 
individuals from all relevant photos – not to mention these unlucky people were also removed from the socialistic brotherhood of the living.
In some cases, on-scene staging is impossible. Street photographers, such as me, cannot stage anything significant. Paparazzi cannot usually choose or modify the stage, nor do they care. When I shoot a music event or a play, I cannot change the setup. There are photographers who categorically refuse to stage anything at all. I tend to be in that camp, except when it comes to processing the image.
Of course, a photographer may stage him/herself too. In the name of great photo taking, standing on one’s head, crawling in that ditch, dressing as a clown, hiding in a bush, climbing a lamp post or – as you’ll shortly see – performing the “As Time Goes By Can Can” all are examples personal staging.
After a staged or non-staged photo shoot, I’m free to use, and do use, all kinds of processing techniques in effect staging the scene. Cropping, burning and dodging, masking, toning, tilting and filtering are just a few examples of possible manipulations, whether done in a traditional darkroom or using Photoshop.
Composition – Position thyself
Composition is yet another ambiguous concept. There are at least a dozen completely different meanings ranging from math to music to visual arts. Focusing on visual arts, 
dozens of elements may make up a composition. In effect, these elements are rules. In photography, we struggle with the rule of thirds, perspective, straight or curved lines leading to a vanishing point (or elsewhere), depth of field, simplification, symmetry, viewpoint, juxtapositions and the interaction of all these possible rules.
Creative photographers gain their fame by breaking rules, including those of composition. The perfectly composed photo is possibly utterly bland. A vision is similar – a perfect adherence may be quite boring. The tension and challenge of a great picture comes from breaking the rules of composition and/or the vision. Breaking rules is not, however, some random, anarchistic event (actually, sometimes it is!) but something planned for and consciously executed. 
Leaving such subtle points for now, let’s consider the down to earth technique of composing by moving around (in, out, left, right, up, down) and, then, deciding on simplicity, detail or complexity.
You are on location. Staging, if required, is done. The subject is present and ready. Camera is loaded. Loaded, you are not. Now you have to come up with a thrilling image consistent with your inner self, your honest convictions, your vision, compositional rules, pre visualization and, now, the idea that rules must be broken or the result will be bland and boring. All present, the model, assistants, art directors, corporate sponsor, bride, portrait customer, and the guy no one seems to know but who looks like a terrorist – they all have a zero tolerance rule about you wasting their time, money, integrity and lunch date through your utter and habitual incompetence.
Keeping your cool, you already know these realities. So you are at the point of improvisation. Your vision did not really get 
down into this detail, did it? It shouldn’t. If it did, you’d likely have an unworkable vision – too detailed and too complicated, filled with ifs and buts. A vision is guidance, not a blue print.
When on location, you face unforeseen details unique to that particular occasion. You are looking for a successful composition while adjusting to reality. One of the most powerful compositional techniques is simply finding your optimal position relative to the subject. Some photographers walk in on the scene, shoot the quota and leave. They are not likely to find the best shot or composition.
More enlightened photographers perform a curious dance before each shot. The photographer is bobbing here and bopping there, up, down, sideways, in and out with a camera stuck to his/her face. Occasionally, the photographer stops, looking thoughtful and rushes over to try a different lens. Then the magician might fire a test shot or too, staring at the result with disbelief. Dance is repeated, all to the amusement (hopefully) of those present. Eventually the photographer stops, mutters incoherently and starts actually snapping away, possibly moving and snapping some more. More muttering; repeat the dance again. On
it goes till photographer skeptically says “enough”. The dance is called the “As Time Goes By Can Can” (just kidding). The photographer, of course, is composing the image by trying many different angles and keeps going till
the right stuff finally is secured.
Henri Cartier-Bresson was a master of this dance, performed right in the middle of unsuspecting Parisian crowds. He is even said to perform this dance with a hankie over the camera, pretending to blow his nose. In his case, he not only looked for the shooting angle but also the Deciding Moment. Walter Evans took an opposite approach by parking himself in a NYC subway train for about three years, camera disguised under his coat, proceeding to take now famous pictures of unsuspecting fellow riders.
Composition – Simple, Detailed or Complex?
Take Ernest “Papa” Hemingway: A sparse prose based on economy and understatement earned him a Pulitzer and a Nobel Price, mostly based on “The Old Man and The 
Sea”. The winner of the most prestigious literary award on Earth got the job done in 77 pages. Not only a sparse prose but the point was delivered in a record concise form. Simplicity works.
Compare that to Charles Dickens, acclaimed for “rich” storytelling. Many of his novels are sequential, making the style even more elaborate. Florid, poetic, satirical, episodic, social and sentimental, he was not concise and brevity was not a strong characteristic: one set of serialized four novels runs 846 pages. Tolstoy’s War and Peace contains 1,424 pages of narrative, details and subplots. The bible runs around 1,000 pages. The Qur’an gets the job done in half the pages of the bible.
Nature photographers usually favor the “rich” approach. Ansel Adams zone system is designed to set the light range in the final print so that no detail is lost. His images are incredibly rich. Ralph Gibson, a modernistic Leica photographer, favors utter simplicity. Both styles work superbly. Edward
Weston did nudes or vegetables. Some of the images are so simplified and stylistic that it is hard to tell if the subject is a pepper or a nude. As a contrast, Art Wolfe’s or Galen Roswell’s nature work show exquisite detail and richness. Two sides of a coin, pick your medicine.
Capturing detail is not the same thing as capturing complexity. Forensic photography collects the maximum amount of some specific details, while eliminating irrelevant aspects and complexities. A nature photo is not complex just because it contains a lot of sharply focused details and textures. Complexity implies more than just details. Typically, complexity means there are disambiguates such as perspective gone wild or startling juxtapositions. Juxtapositions create a sense of tension in a photograph.
But complexity in not just based on tension; it may well imply unharmonious relationships between a number of subjects. Nor is complexity the same as complicated. Thought patterns in your brain are complex. Operating on your brain is complicated. Photographs are not complicated but may be complex. 
Processing the image may be complicated. There is a difference.
On the literary scene, Albert Camus and Franz Kafka wrote quite short, yet famous novels. Kafka’s “The Metamorphosis” is only 48 pages long (others of his novels are longer), Camus’ “The Stranger” has 144 pages and “The Fall” 148 pages. Most of us would call those novels “complex” and yet stark. Obviously complexity does not need to depend on a mass of detail. Then you have cases such as Jean-Paul Satre going at it for 688 pages in “Being and Nothingness” while James Joyce needed 736 pages to complete “Ulysses”, neither your trivial summer read on the beach. One can certainly be both complex and longwinded.
Michelangelo’s Sistine Chapel ceiling is anything but stark. Anything Baroque is rich indeed. Miro’s “Landscape” of 1927 contains only the starkest of details as does Picasso’s “Minotaure Courant” of 1928. Sitting through Wagner’s “Niebelungen Ring” sets you back 15 very solid hours of detailed but not complex German Soap Opera. It set him back, deservedly so, 26 years. Chopin’s “Minute Waltz” requires less than 2 minutes of your attention. Reading one of Hemingway’s short stories is a 10 minute affair. Reading “Ulysses” or “War and Peace” might be a lifetime event. It probably will be the next life time.
Those in favor of simplification simplify the matter into simple statements such as:
- What’s really important is to simplify. The work of most photographers would be improved immensely if they could do one thing: get rid of the extraneous. If you strive for simplicity, you are more likely
to reach the viewer. -William Albert Allard - Ultimately, simplicity is the goal – in every art, and achieving simplicity is one of the hardest things to do. Yet it’s easily the most essential. -Pete Turner
- My pictures are complex and so am I. When I am almost symbolistic in writing, there is a more limiting difference’s of accepting, while I can be even more complex in the photographs and people can usually accept them within the framework of their own limitations or lack of limitations – there is no dictionary meaning… they can look up for the photographic image and allow it to confuse them… -W. Eugene Smith, 1987
Simple/complex, big/small or detailed/stark classifications have absolutely no bearing on whether or not something is a piece of art. These classifications define different camps and, in your vision, you need to be clear on which camp is yours.
When: The Time Factor Where None Exists
It takes a fraction of a second to create a photographic image. Such suddenness is unique in the world of art. Even Mozart could not produce a symphony in such a short period of time; he no doubt tried. It took Michelangelo four years to paint the ceiling of the Sistine Chapel. Rome 
was not built in a day, as clichés goes. God created Paradise in six days according to the bible. Or it took Universe and its Big Bang a tiny fraction of a millisecond to create itself and then leisurely spent billions of years to evolve humans.
Many events trigger a significant and sudden transition from one state to another – turn the light off and it is dark. The suddenly dead from the roadside IED will stay dead forever. The Big Bang hopefully was a one time deal. You release the shutter; the image is frozen forever. The moment comes and goes, never to be repeated. There is no going back – the event happened and that’s that. The state changed from the scene being fluid and temporary to one captured and forever part of our heritage.
That magic fraction of a second is photography’s biggest asset as well as liability. T. In a split second, the image becomes timeless or time bound. Does it abstract an event over time or capsulate a short moment in time? The image can do either. You decide. The decision is yours only.
The Decisive Moment
In 1952, Henri Cartier-Bresson quoted, apparently from the memoirs of a 1600s Cardinal de Retz, “There is nothing in this world that does not have a decisive moment”. In 1957, he added: “There is a creative fraction of a second when you are taking a picture. Your eye must see a composition or an expression that life itself offers you, and you must know with intuition when to click the camera. That is the moment the photographer is creative,” he said. “Oop! The Moment! Once you miss it, i
t is gone forever.” He concluded, in 1999, “To me, photography is the simultaneous recognition, in a fraction of a second, of the significance of an event as well as of a precise organization of forms that give that event its proper expression.”
Cartier-Bresson published, in 1952, “Images à la sauvette” which translates into “Images on The Run”. The English edition was titled “The Decisive Moment”. Whether it was the translator or Cartier-Bresson who started the “Decisive Moment” fame is up for debate. The publishers choose both titles. The preface to “Images à la sauvette” consists of a lengthy article by Cartier-Bresson. You can read the complete article (highly recommended) online through this link. Here are a few quotes from the article:
- “I had just discovered Leica. It became the extension of my eye, and I have never been separated from it since I found it. I prowled the streets all day, feeling very strung up and ready to pounce, determined to ‘trap” life’ – to preserve life in the act of living. Above all, I craved to seize the whole essence, in the confines of one single photograph, of some situation that was in the process of unrolling itself before my eyes.”
- “Sometimes there is one unique picture whose composition possesses such vigor and richness, and whose content so radiates
outward from it, that this single picture is a whole story in itself. But that rarely happens.” - “Sometimes a single event can be so rich in itself and its facets that it is necessary to move all around it in your search…. you cannot be stationary…. sometimes you light upon the picture in seconds; it might also require hours and days. You must be on the alert with the brain, the eye, the heart; and have the suppleness of body.”
- “A photographer must reach a precise awareness of what he is trying to do…. The photographer must make, while he is still in the presence of the unfolding scene, that he hasn’t left any gaps…. he is never able to wind the scene backward in order to photograph it all over again…. We photographers deal in things which are continually vanishing. From that fact stem the anxieties and strength of our profession.”
- “To me, photography is the simultaneous recognition, in a fraction of a second, of the significance of an event as well as of a precise organization of forms which give that event its proper expression.”
- “I believe that through the art of living, the discovery of oneself is made concurrently with the discovery of the world around us which can mould us, but which can also be affected by us. A balance must be established between these two worlds – the one inside us and the one outside us. As the result of a constant reciprocal process, both these worlds come to form a single one. And it is this world that we must communicate.”
- “But this takes care of only of the content of the picture. For me, content cannot be separated from form. By form, I mean a vigorous organization of the interplay of surfaces, lines and values. It is in this organization alone that our conceptions and emotions become concrete and communicable. In photography, visual organization can stem only from a developed instinct.”
The article continues with some pretty down to earth advice on practical photography that is well worth reading, although perhaps it is a bit dated – after all, the article is 55 years old.
The main text of the preface article does not mention “Decisive Moments” except in passing when discussing portraits. The only significant mention of “Decisive Moments” is the English title and the quote of the Cardinal de Retz statement mentioned above. The quotes above are as close to the concept as you get. Clearly, his “invention” came later if indeed it ever was as an invention.
What is a Decisive Moment? Cartier-Bresson’s discussions explain quite well its importance as a photographic concept but do not explain what constitutes an actual Decisive Moment. The memoirs of Cardinal de Retz do nothing to clarify the matter. A thesaurus provides the following synonyms: Critical mass, crucial point, defining moment, important, substantial, momentous, moment of truth, point of no return, crisis, climax, high noon, zero hour, kairos and race against time, crunch, conspicuous, imperative, serious, vital and pregnant plus maybe a hundred others. Clearly, the concept covers a lot of imprecise and not too helpful ground.
“Decisive Moment” photographs usually have a strong time dimension where time is a crucial element of the image. That also means that motion is usually a strong feature.
That means not all photography focus on Decisive Moments. But much does, in addition to the time/motion “rule” above. Even the case of Cartier-Bresson’s opposite (as conveniently depicted in this essay), Ansel Adams, every picture relies on a decisive moment. The sun, shadows and clouds in that Adams’ nature scene have to be captured at exactly the right moment. Or take Robert Capa’s photo of the dying Spanish soldier – that certainly was a Decisive Moment captured 15 years before “Images à la sauvette” was published.
What is the difference between a “Decisive Moment” and “Random Luck/Chance”? Did the shooters capturing planes hitting the World Trade Center experience a Decisive Moment? Do the (many false) photos of the 2004 tsunami reflect Decisive Moments? I do not think so. There was no vision or deliberation behind those pictures. A monkey would be equally likely to take such random images, with a little bit of training.
The difference between “Decisive Moments” and “Random Luck” is razor thin as Cartier-Bresson voices it. He views it as a spilt second event where a combination of form and content comes together once in a life time. Shoot or it is forever lost. He finds these opportunities by wandering around, keeping his eyes and mind open. He is an outsider, looking in towards the subjects without a strong emotional involvement – after the shot he walks away and isn’t really interested in what he left behind.
Given this remote, outsider approach, the “Decisive Moment” strategy is hard to execute. It is well known that Cartier-Bresson did not easily find such moments – in most cases, it took many false starts, a lot of film and shoe leather to create a single successful image. Many of his images do not show a Decisive Moment. For myself, I do not expect, or look for, Decisive Moments. I concentrate on vision, emotional content, honesty and form. If a Decisive Moment happens to come along, that is fantastic but, of course, rare. I am in the camp of “insider, not outsider” view of Sebastiao Salgado:
Famous photo journalist Sebastiao Salgado rejects the notion of Decisive Moments, asserting that, instead, photo journalism requires the immersion of the photographer into the context he is documenting. The essence of the image depends on the rapport which you have with your subjects, and the knowledge that you acquired about their situation. That is not a Decisive, split second, Moment; it is a longer term commitment. Salgado routinely spend years on his projects:
- “You photograph here, you photograph there, you speak with people, you understand people and people understand you. Then, probably, you arrive at the same point as Cartier-Bresson, but from the inside of the parabola. And that is for me the integration of the photographer with the subject of his photograph…. An image is your integration with the person that you photographed at the moment that you work so incredibly together, that your picture is not more than the relation you have with your subject.”
Looking at Salgado’s pictures, it is easy to see his commitment and immersion into the subject matter. Yet in the end they all show if not Decisive, at least Special Moments. They magically freeze an event that may or may not be of great significance. Does it matter how you got there, whether it took years of dedication or the split second recognition of the significance of some event? The Decisive Moment is subject to the same fundamentals as any quality photography. That means a vision, a path, patience and persistence. That is the same, always, in any worthwhile endeavor.
Sequences Everywhere
Now, here is an ambiguous term – sequence. It has meanings in math, computer science and real life. Sequences are present in archeology, poetry, music, filming, games, bio polymers, DNA, geology, dance and biology. And it is present in photography.
A sequence of photographs may document a process of some kind, such as the demolition of a building or the 
launch of the space shuttle. A medical MRI session results in a sequence of images that shows consecutive slices of a body. An MRI is not a photo in the traditional sense but the result is captured sequentially on film, or, these days, on CDs as image files.
Any table top photography book contains a sequence of images, as does a regular old photo album. Slide shows can contain photo sequences as can PowerPoint presentations. Photos can be sequenced in multi media shows. Photos of kids growing up are sequences. There are sequences built into many cameras: bracketing and fast multiple exposure series. A roll of negatives or a full memory card contains sequences of images.
Sequenced photographs add a time component. There cannot be two exposures at precisely the same time. One image is exposed before or after another, a sequence over time. Not all sequences aim at a time dimension – a panorama by shooting a horizontal spread of images, going around in a circle is not a sequence over time. Collages or composite images do not necessarily reflect time. Wedding and documentary photography both have strong sequential time elements, as does sports photography. Advertising, food or portraits usually rely less on sequences since the end product may be one single image.
Emmet Gowin is a photographer that chronicled his family from 1965 to 1974. The sequence (small sample to the right) is symbolic, intense, revealing, relevant and honest with a gothic overtone. Incidentally, he started playing with dimensions quite explicitly in 1970 by using a circular lens.
Alfred Wertheimer gained fame as a photographer through an obscure assignment in 1956. He was hired to shoot a young, largely unknown, upstart singer with odd music, odd hairdo and very odd stage behavior. I’m sure you guessed right – the singer is a young but not so innocent Elvis Presley. I used a few of the images and some music for a little modest, but fun, multimedia show as an example of sequencing. The second show is a brief portrait of Seattle jazz pianist Marc Seales and his band. This time I did both the show and the photography.
| Elvis | Seales |
Technically, all photography makes up a sequence as it is unlikely the photographer makes only one exposure in his/her career. From a vision stand point, the trick is to, first, recognize the sequential potential and, second, make the sequence meaningful. It adds an extra, very powerful dimension. Don’t miss out!
Sequences also have a totally different meaning. All photographers end up with hard drives full of images or filing cabinets stuffed with prints, notes, negatives, last week’s lunch, invoices and other junk. A smart photographer tackles that mess and makes sure it is organized to smoothly meet needs. Many of us don’t tackle the issue which is a rather dangerous way to treat your primary business or memory assets.
Do not forget the aging factor. Most photographic assets deteriorate over time. Hard drives crash. CDs and DVDs become unreadable. A traditional print deteriorates as do negatives. You are wise to consider this issue and act in your best interests. Enough said. Sermon is over.
Other Timing Stuff
Seasons: Spring, summer…. Time of day: Sunrise, high noon, sunset…. Events: weddings, births, sports, coronations, vacations and dinnertime. It might be a summer lunch by the river. All these examples can have a time, or perhaps more accurately, a timing element. Consider time and timing in your vision and game plan. Different events or timings require different tactics.
Sometimes time and timing factors go together. The wedding photographer must show up on time. He/she needs to consider the light situation given the time of the day. Another practical variable is the seasonal impact – in December, outside shots are fairly rare in Minnesota but much more common in Australia. The photographer must visualize the time and timing elements in addition to the standard wedding scenes, then act accordingly.
Another example: Several of my photo sequences use extreme low light scenes (no flash). This may be shooting a street scene at night or performances in some music club or a theater. I shoot outside at night or in dark interior spaces. Since I have done that for quite a while I know what I aim for and how to get there and it is certainly a vital part of my particular vision. There are many samples of this vision illustrating this essay.
What: Context Layered on Contexts
Here is a summary of the discussion so far. A few items belong to the Toolbox and will be covered in the next main section. In effect, there are four major items (blue): Vision, Plan, Execution and Show. Then there are sub items (yellow). Think of it as a wedding cake – layer after layer:
Does this start looking like some Corporate Planning fad? If so, the point is missed. Read the discussion all over again. I have yet to meet an artist who goes overboard on corporate mania. Most artists I’ve met or studied tend to belabor abstract, mystical and philosophical thoughts and theories. The Paris gatherings in the cafes and restaurants, such as the La Closerie des Lilas, on the Parisian Left Bank in the 1920s come to mind: The Lost Generation of Ernest Hemingway, Ezra Pound, Getrude Stein, Scott Fitzgerald, Natalie Barney, Man Ray, Madox Ford, Robert McAlmon and William Carlos Williams smoking and drinking their 
cigarettes, coffee, Pernod and Armagnac. Perhaps the gang fell into stupor as the nights wore on but they were definitely not corporate in style.
All artists do go through the self discovery, work and dedication associated with creating a vision. All successful artists translate the vision into something tangible that can be shared with others. The graph above crystallizes the steps most commonly used. Most artists probably will not explicitly spell out as much detail as implied above. Not everyone will reach the vision and the plan in the same way. The components may be very different from that of the next guy or the graph. The graph is only a list of useful components. Those components may or may not apply to you. But be very explicit about what you include and exclude from your vision and plan.
All Those Styles
The next step explores the many different types of photographs and their widely different purposes to which the photographer must conform. In some types of photography, “accuracy” is crucial – even though we know accuracy and photography have little in common. No photos are accurate – they all distort reality. Then we have abstractions where eventually the original subject no longer is recognizable. In such a case “accuracy” is nonexistent and undesired. Here is a list of some major types of photography ordered by the elusive requirement of “accuracy”:
- Industrial, Medical, Forensics photography renders artistic creativity irrelevant. A forensic picture uses precise techniques to capture all relevant detail of a specific item or event. It is not an “accurate” picture of the crime scene but a highly specialized one, serving exact needs of crime investigators. A sequence from an ultra high speed camera might document some industrial or medical process, having little to do with reality as a human might view it. Such a sequence is conceptually closer to an abstraction but covers the specific, exact requirements of the engineers or scientists involved. More examples include ultra high speed pictures of nuclear explosions and the Doc Edgerton stroboscopic images of flying bullets. Current technology easily allows capture rates of 1,000 frames per second.
- Photojournalism emphasizes ethics, accuracy and objectivity. These images should contain a time element (when) and a narrative (what etc.), telling the relevant story as reflected in the 5Ws. That has to happen while under fire in Iraq, Boise or Watts, during riots, weather extremes, catastrophes, NBA games or Congressional hearings. The ability to run Photoshop in the middle of any war zone, famine struck desert or New York grid lock adds to the controversy. Strict procedural guidelines are in place but overlook that real photography has little to do with such guidelines. The guidelines are typically arbitrary. Photography is not truly accurate or objective.
- Non-Fiction and Educational is a category I just invented. It represents a middle ground between Documentaries – that may be quite biased and opinionated – and idealistic Journalism. An educational photo sequence of, say, frog eating habits is quite different in tone than documentaries on abortion or IEDs in Baghdad. The latter two are most likely politically charged and the former is, well, about frogs eating stuff. Unless the frog reside in Love Canal, that subject is probably non controversial. Other examples of this “innocent” category include most Discovery Channel “documentaries”, biology text book photos, photo sequences of grass growing or a sun eclipse.
- Documentaries are another step away from “accuracy and reality”, yet many assume documentaries are objective and accurate. They are not. On top of the fallacies of journalism, nothing prevents – ethically, contractually or guide lined – the photographer from expressing a personal bias or perspective on the subject. Documentaries take stands – Al Gore’s An Inconvenient Truth is a great example. If the bias is hidden, misrepresented or not clearly stated, then we do have a problem. We suddenly deal with propaganda – the recent BBC TV show “The Great Global Warming Swindle” is a perfect example of conscious misinformation.
- Essays are similar to documentaries but generally advocate a particular opinion even more than the documentary. You are reading (viewing) an essay because you are curious about what the author (photographer) has to say (show). You realize that there are probably conflicting views. Quite likely, you will read those too. Neither essays, nor documentaries are text books. However they are not just polemic tirades either. The more militant in your face view points belong in the editorial field:
- Editorials sometimes go beyond most journalism or documentaries/essays by expressing personal opinions with little pretence of being unbiased or even fair. In the news world, there are sometimes rules and editorial boards in place to control editorial excesses but as often, editorials are measured against its ability to grab eyeballs by
whatever means available. (Falsified) photos of John Kerry and Jane Fonda at a war rally are an example used in many conservative editorials. Greenpeace editorials on Nuclear Energy or Whaling, ExxonMobil on Global Warming, Philip Morris on Lung Cancer and Bush’s representations on Climate Change, Terrorism and Iraq are all very opinionated and biased viewpoints supported by photography and editorial photography. - Sensationalism represents the highest level of vulgarism in photography and journalism. The graffiti contra point of art, descriptions include “culture of fear, exploitation, star or Satan worship, junk news, infotainment, reality shows, media circus, absurdity, moral panic, pulp news/books/magazines, tabloid junk, trial by media and, not least, Fox News, Jerry Springer, Bill O’Reilly and Russ Limbaugh shows”. Of course, the reason sensationalism exists is because people want it and are willing to pay for it. Some photographers enthusiastically enjoy such money, including paparazzi and waparazzi. Others continued straight to pornography.
- Extremism goes even further by typically combining sensationalism with another message. Consider videos and photos produced by authorities on executions, terrorists on beheadings, snuff movies, torture, medical and psychological exploitation of captives may show real events but against a backdrop that is real only to the producers and deplorable to all others.
- Portraits add another dimension to the “accurate” versus “abstract” spectrum. Some portraits do
not even deal with the person. Diane Arbus portraits of fringe people are more about fringe society than about the people she used as subjects. Other portraits go beyond the person’s features to tell a story about their life. The famous pictures of Stravinsky (Arnold Newman) by a piano, Pablo Casals (Yousuf Karsh) playing the cello or Auguste Rodin (Edward Steichen) looking like a sculpture rather than a sculptor are all good examples. These three images take on a life of their own, rising far beyond what most think of as a portrait. On the other end of the spectrum, a Sears portrait usually smoothes reality to the customer’s relief. However, portraiture work is, in its day to day
frame, mostly about customer satisfaction, not accuracy or reality. - Commercial photography implies commercial interests are more important than purely creative visions. The focus is on selling products, promoting travel, educating employees or simply informing some targets demographics. Each form of commercial photography has its own requirements. The trick is to mesh the photographer’s creativity with the commercial requirements. “Accuracy” is not a major concern; looking good, polished, unique and attractive is. Here are some of the key types of commercial photography:
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- The super slick arenas of Advertising, Fashion and Modeling.
- The seductive fantasies of Food & Travel.
- The ultra conventional fields of Wedding Photography.
- The matter of fact Catalogs.
- The huge cottage industry of various specialties – local post cards, souvenirs, real estate etc.
- The ups, downs, this, that and “anything you want” of Stock Photography.
- The insincerely nonobjective shadow land of Corporate Photography.
- Fine Art ranks the highest on not presenting accuracy. Creativity comes before the literal meaning of “accuracy”. Fine Art is actually very accurate. You just have to expand the notion to include impact, metaphors, messages, statements, convictions, emotions and other elements. The all important artistic vision may include sophisticated abstractions and many different manipulations. There is no rule book. Creativity rules the day. But Fine Art is a subject that covers many types of photography. Below are just a few of them:
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- Nature photography may rank high on accuracy, detail and, often, texture. A typical image is much more elaborate than, say, street photography. Large format cameras are still in use. Aesthetics are more important than in most other areas. The genre includes landscape, wildlife, clouds, underwater and some macro photography.
- Street photography simply implies the image is shot in a public place. In most countries, shooting in public places is a right protected in law (France and Saudi Arabia are exceptions) with some obvious limitations such as not endanger anyone or disturbing the peace. It’s a good idea to observe some ethical standards as well. The step from a legal right to exploitation and discrimination can be quite short. In many cases, the step from the same legal right to invasion of privacy in a non-public place is quite short too.
- Abstract photography is a matter of degree. Strictly speaking, all photography is abstract since no photos reflect reality. The degree of abstraction usually relates to the degree of distortion invoked on the original subject, but can also simply convert the object to a different level than its ordinary role. There are endless techniques that achieve distortions, such as lens filters, development abnormalities and/or Photoshop. Or you may convert the object to make it appear in some other dimension. The line between art and weirdness is quite narrow. Abstraction truly requires a clear artistic vision to work.
Different applications, different requirements, different techniques. Different visions and different execution paths. Similar creativity, aesthetics, dedication, honesty and ethics. The top level of the stack includes creativity, then one level down you have visions, then there is the convictions-message-activist layer followed (down again) by the execution path and at the lowest level technology. That is the Prerequisite part of creating great photos. Let’s move on to the Magical Toolbox that is a great complement to the stack we created.
Techniques of the Clever Photographer
Before jumping into the magical toolbox, here are a few one liners from the text to date. They may be helpful as a summary of the wisdom so far:
- Start
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- Define your a creative, artistic vision – honesty, emotions, facts. Be persistent. Don’t quit.
- Understand your need for rewards. Money, fame, gratitude, sex, inner satisfaction?
- Determine the execution path you need to follow to translate the vision into real Art.
- Take advantage of relevant parts of trends such as Web 2.0, etc., etc.. Just face it.
- Consider technology needed to realize the goals. Use what you need, not what you have.
- Research
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- Do the subject research, repeat over and over. Immerse yourself. Live it, breathe it.
- Start shooting, realizing it is not the final stuff but part of the immersion process.
- Unravel the story, understand the cause, determine the message, show compassion.
- Preliminaries
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- Pre visualize your end product and revisit the execution path. What modifications are needed?
- Pre compose the imagery: Simple, detailed, complex or neither. Keep shooting.
- Define the location, stage the scene: light, color, mood, composition, time of day, season.
- The Main Event
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- Collect your team, especially if it consists of your lonely hand, eyes and shoe leather
- Lead the assistants, models, make up people, crane operators, art directors, clients and lab people.
- Look for the Decisive Moment if you are an optimist and figure out how to find it. Keep shooting.
- Improvise. Break the rules. Create emotion, tension, harmony, conflict, contradiction as possible
- Savior the Magic Moment of exposure. It’s you and no one else. This is the moment of truth.
- Execute the magical moment!
- Post Shoot
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- Execute the pre visualized path to the final image. Keep innovating. Break the rules some more.
- Realize the power of sequences. Put that time element back into the static single shots.
- Sell, exhibit, store, backup, manage and be a good little businessperson all around.
- Move On
Obviously, steps and their order will vary by shoot and the attitudes and work habits of individual photographers. In this sample series of events, the main event – actually shooting for the final image – is at step 18 out of a total of 21 steps. That’s a very front heavy, deliberate approach favored by some but not all.
The Magical Photograph – Quotes by the Wise
To finish off this essay’s first main part about visions and paths, here are the words on art by a few prominently wise photographers. To me, these quotes highlight the breadth of ideas while the creative focus is remarkably constant:
- It takes a lot of imagination to be a good photographer. You need less imagination to be a painter, because you can invent things. But in photography everything is so ordinary; it takes a lot of looking before you learn to see the ordinary. -David Bailey
- “A photograph is always invisible, it is not it that we see.”; “Nothing would be funnier than the photographers’ contortions to produce effects that are “lifelike”.”-Roland Barthes
- In photography, if you have purpose and intent you can [still] allow yourself to be beset by gargantuan problems during the taking of pictures. These problems must be worked out in advance … I do not mean that every minutiae should be rehearsed in advance, for if the taking became a purely mechanical routine, all spontaneity would be lost and the result could only be lifeless and dull. -Ralph Bartholomew Jr.
- Too many photographers try too hard. They try to lift photography into the realm of Art, because they have an inferiority complex about their Craft. You and I would see more interesting photography if they would stop worrying, and instead, apply horse-sense to the problem of recording the look and feel of their own era. -Jessie Tarbox Beals
- Photojournalism is the worst it’s ever been. Nobody is doing anything. Today all the photographers are making setup shots, where you go in to shoot someone with a couple of assistants and a few stylists. Everyone does it. I do it. It’s the Value Jet of photojournalism -stuck in the mud. In the end, those kinds of portraits mean nothing. They don’t convey any information. The idea in that kind of photography is to make a picture the subject will
like. That’s not journalism. -Harry Benson - My quest, through the magic of light and shadow, is to isolate, to simplify and to give emphasis to form with the greatest clarity. To indicate the ideal proportion, to reveal sculptural mass and the dominating spirit is my goal. -Ruth Bernhard
- Fashion, flowers, nudes and portraits – they’re all the same: light, form, color and mystery. Mystery is very important. When I started photographing flowers, I thought, “My God, where have I been?” I’m totally addicted to this project. I’d never seen the mysteries of a flower. We walk by wonders every day and don’t see them. We only stop at what shouts the loudest. -Barbara Bordnick
- When I have seen or sensed – I do not know which it is – the atmosphere of my subject, I try to convey that atmosphere by intensifying the elements that compose it. I lay emphasis on one aspect of my subject and I find that I can thus most effectively arrest the spectator’s attention and induce in him an emotional response to the atmosphere I have tried to convey. -Bill Brandt
- “There are many photographs which are full of life but which are confusing and difficult to remember. It is the force of an image which matter.”; “The thing that is magnificent about photography is that it can produce images that incite emotion based on the subject matter alone.”; “The purpose of art is to raise people to a higher level of awareness than they would otherwise attain on their own.” -Brassai
- What I feel is that the picture-taking process is an intuitive thing. You go out and intuitively plan a picture. When you come back, reason takes over and verifies or rejects whatever you’ve done. So that’s why I say that reason and intuition are not in conflict–they strengthen each other. -Wynn Bullock
- A thing is not what you say it is or what
you photograph it to be or what you paint it to be or what you sculpt it to be. Words, photographs, paintings, and sculptures are symbols of what you see, think, and feel things to be, but they are not the things themselves. -Wynn Bullock - I now measure my growth as a photographer in terms of the degrees to which I am aware of, have developed my sense of, and have the skills to symbolize visually the four-dimensional structure of the universe. -Wynn Bullock
- A very fine photographer asked me, “What did it feel like the first time you manipulated an image?”, and I said “Do you mean the first time I shot black and white instead of color, do you mean the first time I burned the corner of a print down, do you mean the first time I ‘spotted’ a dust speck on my print, do you mean the first time I shot with a wide angle instead of a normal lens, I mean what are you referring to? Where does it stop?” -Dan Burkholder
And that is it. The next major segment takes an unusual look at some major tools for creative photography. Think outside the box. Benefit from tricks of the trade in other art forms and even sciences.
Part 2
And hereby, Part Two is awaiting your attention. It is labeled “Build the Mysterious Toolbox”. This toolbox is not a collection of cameras, assorted lenses and wonderful flashes, light meters and camera bags built to survive WWIII, Global Warming or a dive to 3,000 feet beneath sea level. If you haven’t noticed, this essay likes a somewhat abstract level. The vision thing, pre visualization, immersion, complexity, creativity and innovation can be rather heavy subjects if all you wanted to know was how to load film 
into a Leica M series (damn tricky if you ask me). Of course, these days you load a memory card into your brand new M8 and, of course, you still have to dismantle the camera to achieve this task.
This toolbox contains only two “tools”. The first tool is light. No photography is possible without light. Photography is all about the art of capturing light in the tiniest of moments. Light is a vital component in your toolbox but also a tricky and treacherous one.
Some of us don’t realize that we do not see things. We see light, nothing else. Otherwise invisible objects may have the ability to emit light (the sun, light bulbs and certain insects). Other objects can reflect light (the moon, your significant other and Mount Everest). Light is simply energy vibrating at a certain speed. This energy is influenced by thousands of factors, all serving to distort the light originating from some source.
The second tool contains assorted dimensions. The idea is to go beyond the obvious two dimensions of a photographic print to understand what is really in the image. As you’ll see, there are many more dimensions to consider. Some are simple – such as expanding the scope into time and distance or depth. Others are much more complex: the dimensions as exist in math, physics and quantum mechanics and – truly mind boggling stuff.
Then there is another angle – using psychology and its very differ
ent view of dimensions to understand art and how an artist relates to the world. If you hang in here, you’ll get a glimpse into some research by yours truly.
Leonardo da Vinci was one of the most creative and innovative giants of all mankind and all ages. He was a master of almost any field from science to art and far ahead of his time of 500 years ago. He created Mona Lisa, The Last Supper, drawings of helicopters, tanks, calculators and advanced research into anatomy, engineering, optics, geology and much else.
He described a Camera Obscura in 1490 and commented “…Here the figures, here the colors, here all the images of every part of the universe are contracted to a point. O what a point is so marvelous!”
Here are some other statements: “He who loves practice without theory is like the sailor who boards ship without a rudder and compass and never knows where he may cast.” “Art is never finished, only abandoned.” “Where the spirit does not work with the hand, there is no art.” Still relevant after all these years.
The drawing below by, of course, da Vinci, is also relevant to this discussion of light and dimensions. Light is obviously present. The dimensional aspect is curious indeed. There is a very strong spatial, perspectural, scientific component. Then that is coupled with a human aspect – the mysterious people occupying the scene. Clearly, Leonardo saw an interaction of dimensions – scientific and human which is exactly where we are heading.
Execution – Build the Mysterious Toolbox
Photography is a very gadget friendly environment. Starting with hundreds of camera bodies, lenses and equipment left and right, camera stores happily sell thousands of accessories. Add chemicals, development materials, printing accessories, computers, memory cards, special monitors and you end up with an empty wallet and far more headaches than you deserve. Or as some partners put it, all the headaches you do deserve. Boating is a hole in the water into which you throw money. Photography is a hole in the ground into which you throw not only money but perhaps your marriage, career, cat and sanity.
Here is yet another example of Jeff Wall’s art. It appears to be his interpretation of a Magical Toolbox. This particular toolbox seems to contain all kinds of goodies, gadgets and misc. survival gear. No doubt the owner is a happy, well organized photographer with a clear vision and an obviously grand toolbox.
The first camera I used was one I liberated from my father. Equipped with a bellowed fixed lens, zero batteries and no focusing assistance, it sure was a curious little machine. Using medium format film in a body smaller than a Leica rangefinder, it took remarkable photos. Not only that, the absence of any modern convenience resulted in complete freedom from gadgets. In fact, available accessories numbered exactly zero. Those were the days.
The discussion from now on applies to a camera like that as well as the latest high-tech monster. By toolbox, I do not mean a box filled with gadgets, I mean a box filled with ideas. The discussion splits into two main parts. The first part deals with light, distortion and how to use both to your creative benefit. The second part covers a rather unusual way to look at tools by discussing dimensions and how to add them to that boring two dimensional image.
Here is the idea: the first priority is to understand the basic features of a photography toolbox, such as how light works and why dimensions are relevant to photography. The second priority is to provide some ideas on how to use these features in practical photography. However, all of us photographers are responsible for our craft; the real aim is to inspire you to create your own toolbox – there is no way I can determine what is right for you.
Part 2a – Distorted Light, Distorted Reality
Distortion is the alteration of a shape or characteristic of some object after some change in state took place. In stereos, it is the difference in shape of the signal fed to the stereo and that of the output. It is the difference between the signal from a CD and that of an mp3 file created from that CD. It could be the difference in the sun’s light wave patterns and the light patterns measured in Los Angeles on a smoggy day late in the afternoon versus the noon measurements on top of Mount Everest.
Parts of the discussions below update and expand on the content of some previous posts, notably On Reality – Part 1 – Elements of Light and On Reality – Part 5 – How Perceptions and Illusions destroy Reality.
That Treacherous Light
Nothing is more important to a photographer than light. No light, no photography. The 
one thing your toolbox must contain is your love of light. You better like how light bends, creates color, enters a lens, refracts, reflects, bounces, scatters, disappears, enters eyes for processing in the brain and how it is affected by sun spots, black holes, cosmic rays, atmosphere, clouds, rain, weather, pollution, dust and much else.
All of the factors above are distortions. The original light source, the sun (for most practical purposes) emits “pure” light. By the time that light reaches some place on Earth and your camera lens, it is very different compared to that original “pure” light and its spectrum. Light from space is distorted even before it reaches our atmosphere, then the atmosphere adds its set of oddities. The camera is a virtual snake pit of distortions. Manmade light adds other distortions since its light is differently colored than the “norm”. Our eyes and brains add more layers of distortions. Can you, the photographer, use this mess to your advantage? You sure can and, further, you pretty much have to.
Historical Light
In the beginning, people assumed one saw by emitting beams out of one’s eyes. Pythagoras, 500 BC, assumed light traveled from the eyes and a sensation
of seeing followed as the beam hit some object. Plato, 400BC, supported the same theory. Around 300BC, Euclid questioned that eyes were the only source of light and formulated quite a bit of light related mathematics. Still, the view of the eyes beaming light prevailed. Then the Bible mentioned “And God said, let there be light, and there was light”, associating light versus darkness as a good versus evil issue.
Around 1000AD, al-Haytham of Egypt finally voiced the idea that light entered the eyes rather than the other way around. He concluded the sun was the source of light. He also invented the Camera Obscura although Leonardo da Vinci received some of that credit 500 years later. Unfortunately, our gentleman resided in jail, so his findings were not immediately available. Most of his ideas were based on the sun light coming into his cell through a tiny opening or crack.
It took over 500 years before al-Haytham’s theories reached Europe, inspiring Kepler to formulate some fairly correct theories late in the 1500s. Galileo, Descartes and Newton added tremendously to the understanding of light over the next 100 years. The wave theory came along through Euler in the mid 1700s. Other contributors include Fresnel, Poisson, Faraway, Planck and Maxwell, leading up to the late 1800s and pretty much the way we understand light today.
A Simple Theory of Light
Light is produced by light emitters, reflected by certain objects and consumed by others. Light is radiation energy affected by combinations of photons, atoms, molecules and 
other low lives. It has characteristics such as wave length, frequency and intensity, all of which vary tremendously with quite spectacular results. Most light originates at the sun and manmade processes. Light may be a single beam or scattered in a collision with some obscure molecules.
Radiation is a form of energy with intensity and wave length, vibrating around us constantly. Low frequency waves represent sound. There are TV and radio waves, visible and invisible light, radar waves, cellular phone radiations and X-ray emissions. Light as we see it and as used by a camera is only a small part of the energy waves around us. In some cases, invisible wave lengths affect film or memory cards in undesirable ways. Don’t X-ray your films. Another rather extreme example is the HEMP bomb that can fry all electronics within a large radius, including your camera (unless you use a camera similar to that of my father, but the film is probably a goner).
Light is created in many ways – the sun maintains a controlled nuclear explosion emitting lots of radiation energy, some in the form of light, other in the form of quite deadly variations such as gamma rays. Light bulbs, neon lights and many other manmade devices emit light on demand. Such light is usually created by the combination of energy in an enclosure containing suitable gases. Other light sources include computer, radar and TV screens which operate using cathode rays and energy sensitive coatings or by turning 
transistors off and on. Nuclear reactions produce lots of radiation, some of which is visible.
Light is generated by heat; increasingly hot temperatures transform light from the original color to a glow of red, white and eventually blue – think about your stove, fireplace, kerosene lamp or volcanic lava. Military night sights use slight heat variations as emitted in the infrared spectrum to “see” a battle field. Chemical processes generate light in some organisms: fireflies, glow worms, krill and others. Lightning produces a short burst of light based on heat.
When light falls on an object, some waves with a specific length are reflected and others absorbed. Light emitted by an object also have a specific set of wave lengths. We perceive the light of a specific wave length as a color. We thus “see” the object having a color. The reflected light is not a constant since it depends of the wave lengths of the incoming light. Reddish sunset light makes any object look reddish while the same object is bluish at noon.
Photographers and light meter manufacturers make a big deal out of incident and reflected light. Incident light measures incoming light only and then make assumptions about correct exposure. Reflected readings do the same for reflected light. The problem is that different object reflect light very differently – snow, water and any light object reflects much more light than dark soil, a black car top or any dark object. That means that neither incident nor reflected light measures result in correct exposure. In the case of snow, an 
incidence measure will overexpose the scene while a reflected metering will underexpose the same scene. The only time you get a good measure is when the scene is a uniform 18% grey – a very rare occurrence.
Auto exposure cameras use reflected light only as does the Zone System. The Zone System is unique by actually attempting to correct for the ambiguity in light measures. In fact, that is the major point of the Zone System. Meanwhile, the auto exposure camera relies on you to override its automatics to produce a correct reading. Nothing automatic about that, is it?
Most objects are not producing light at all. They are only visible because they reflect light. A chair does not normally emit light. The moon does not produce light – it solely reflects light mostly from the sun. There is a bit of a fallacy here because heat produces light. Heat the chair up and it will produce light. Humans do not produce light but we do have a body temperature that does cause light emissions in the invisible infrared spectrum. If we actually turned into visible light emitters we are very dead because that implies heat sufficient to make us glow red – blue – white. That would not be healthy. However, it is possible to photograph people in total darkness. All you need is a readily available sensor or film sensitive to infrared light.
Light intensity declines rapidly with distance. Most photographers use a simple formula stating: double the distance from a light source and the 
intensity is down to a 1/4 of the original intensity. That is an approximation that serves photography well in most circumstances but is actually wildly inaccurate. If you get close to a light source, then light intensity is almost flat regardless of distance. Nor does the rule hold up when the light is focused with some sort of reflector as you may have noticed using a flashlight, driving at night or watching the beam from a lighthouse.
Light never dies. As time goes by and the light travels great distances, the intensity goes down but it never reaches zero. We are surrounded by light originating billions of years ago. Unfortunately, the intensity is way down making it impossible to see for us humans. The Hubble telescope is extremely light sensitive and can pick up very distant light originating a long time ago.
There is no such thing as “seeing” an object; our eyes only receive light emitted and reflected by the object. The light waves reaching our eyes are quite distorted. The eyes introduce more distortions due to various imperfections. The brain then makes up a “view” of the object, introducing additional distortions. The brain is easily fooled into providing false or biased views. What we “see” is not an accurate representation of the object, it merely is one deemed safe by our brain.
Light Traveling Space
The sun is the major source of light. This light is comes from a massive nuclear reaction that has been going on for billions of years. Sun light affects human health and climates. The current Global Warming crisis is caused by sun energy being trapped by CO2 concentrations rather than reflected back into space, which causes temperatures to rise to dangerous levels. Sun light produces Vitamin D but also skin cancers and ultraviolet 
radiation aging us.
Stars, clusters, galaxies and nebulae provide some light. Polar lights (Aurorae) are clearly visible in high latitude areas and seasons. The moon reflects sun light mostly at night. Magnetic fields in space bend light, space storms distort light, black holes does who knows what with light and sun flares send out a lot of unpredictable and usually harmful energy.
Cosmic “rays” refer to Earth being bombard by energy containing particles. These particles originate with the sun but also exploding stars, novae, galaxies, quasars and black holes. These generally low energy (unless you are an astronaut) particles have some limited effect on climate by affecting lightning and cloud formation. Solar cosmic rays can affect electronics on Earth such as communication devices and possibly digital cameras. Then there is the Oh-My-God particle (really) traveling around the Universe at extreme speed and containing enormous 
energy, given its tiny size. But that is another story.
Photography in space is quite different than on earth. The radiation levels are harmful to film. NASA tests film extensively to reduce fogging and color shifts – they tend to use film specially made for them by Kodak. Today I’m sure they use digital cameras with similar quality considerations.
Light in space is either on or off with photography taking place when light is on. With the light is on, it is very constant – no clouds, haze, rain storms or shadow. There are only two basic shooting scenarios: close or far. Shooting earth from the space station means using one standard exposure (reflected light is quite constant) and the lens set at infinity. Shooting “close ups” such as space walks require a similar standard exposure and some focusing. Photography inside the space vessel is similar to that on earth.
Space light is much bluer than on earth. There is far more ultraviolet radiation which is not visible with eyes but may impact images. Contrast ranges are extreme – consider an astronaut in a white suit against a pitch black background. The seasoned space photographer must consider speed. Everything moves way faster than earth speed limits. The shuttle moves at 17,500 miles an hour (5 miles per second or 110 feet a typical exposure of 1/240 seconds) so panning is a necessary skill. The Cartier-Bresson Decisive Moment takes on a different meaning.
Atmosphere and Time
The atmosphere greatly impacts light from space. There are seasonality, clouds, storms, humidity, dust, pollution, inversion layers, refractions and reflections. Other factors 
include time of day effects and temperature distortions.
When light beams reach the atmosphere, they scatter as they collide with atmospheric particles. During the day, this results in a blue sky because the light is coming from a high angle. In the early morning and late night with a low sun, we see a reddish sky because the angle of the incoming beams is low. Without clouds, we experience a mix of sun beams and scattered light. Snow, water and beach sand reflect light more than dark objects. That amplified light level reaches your camera, confuses the light meter and you better step down the exposure. Ice also reflects light but amplifies the blue wave lengths. Thus, photos of ice bergs have a deep bluish tint.
Seasons display unique light effects. Snowy landscapes require special attention to exposure. Fall foil colors can overwhelm a landscape. Some enjoy the Christmas feeling 
and warm toned nostalgia. Seasonal sports and graduations are popular events. Some regions suffer extreme weather seasons such as the Arctic winter, the hurricane plagued Southeast US coasts, the mid US Tornado Alley and the Asian Monsoon and Cyclone season.
Clouds reflect the direct sun beams and all we see is the scattered light waves – shadows disappear or dilute. The water content of the clouds scatter light in a way that produces no particular color, hence the grayish feel with a complete cloud cover. The thicker the cloud, the less light passes through. Extreme weather can lead to almost total darkness and a general loss in color. The red rose is suddenly grey.
Bounces and Refractions
Refraction of light is the bending effect that happens when light passes through certain 
media at certain angles. The straw in a glass of water is the classic example. Refraction is, for instance, the cause of rainbows. The atmosphere provides refraction of sun beams: the lower the sun, the more the refraction. At sunset the refraction can be as much as half a degree or about one sun diameter. This explains the “oval” sun at sunset or dawn. Another effect of refraction is the “floating mountains” or “elonged islands or ships” seen on hot days (Fata Morgana). Other special effects include mirages and the common illusion of distant pools of water on hot roads. Refraction also makes it possible to see beyond the natural horizon.
Refraction in a vacuum is exactly 1, which means there is no refraction. The atmosphere has a refraction of 1.0003 while ordinary water refracts 1.33, quite a bit more. Acrylic glass has a refraction index of 1.49 and diamonds are at 2.42. Silicon has an index of over 4 although that probably won’t be much of a photography issue.
Refraction also is important because different wave lengths of light have slightly different refractions in different materials. This causes dispersion of the light into colors. Diamonds, for instance, are very high in dispersions causing their extraordinary “fire”. One moment you see blue light reflected from the stone, then perhaps green or pure white. Rainbows are another example of this phenomenon. Reflection, dispersion and refraction are the mechanisms by which many different kinds of prisms work – very important design aspects of your camera’s lenses.
Pollution and Dust
Atmospheric pollution affects light. Compare light in a smogged Los Angeles, Mexico City or Shanghai to that experienced on top of Mauna Kea in Hawaii. Broadly, there are three 
kinds of atmospheric pollution agents. Some reflect solar beams back out into space, resulting in less light and cooler temperatures. The sulphur dioxide crisis of the 1960s and early 1970s is a good example. Other pollutants, such as carbon dioxide, do the opposite – they allow the sun energy to pass to the surface of Earth but disallow the required reflection of excess energy back out into space. The result is Global Warming. Yet another pollutant, typically Freon, destroy the ozone layer allowing ultraviolet light through at levels threatening health.
Here are the smoggiest cities: London, New York, Los Angeles, Mexico City, Houston, Toronto, Athens, Beijing and Hong Kong. Smoggy areas include the Ruhr Area and Silicon Valley and many places in China, Southeast Asia and India. Forest slash and burn practices in Indonesia cause severe smog and smoke in much of surrounding countries. The disastrous 1952 smog in London killed 4,000 people in four days, followed by another 8,000 in the next six months. On a happier note, both LA and Mexico City have made substantial gains.
Apart from the health issues, heavy smog easily can make any normal photography impossible.
Dust in the atmosphere typically reflects sun energy back out and thus has a cooling effect as well as a darker sky. Sunsets tend to be tremendous. Volcanoes cause massive emissions of d
ust, particles and ashes into the atmosphere. The eruptions of Mount St. Helen and Mount Pinatubo spewed out ashes that traveled the world for several years. Dust storms due to drought are another major source. The Oklahoma storms of the 1930s, today’s Sahara storms and those of China affect all of Earth. Global Warming will amplify dust storms due to extreme droughts. Yet another source of particles in the air stems from forest fires due to deforestation in Brazil, Malaysia and, above all, Indonesia. The uncontrolled fires in Indonesia cause severe health problems in not only Indonesia but all of Southwest Asia. The particles circle the
globe.
Manmade Light
Ambient, natural light is terrific. Manmade light is a pain. Hundreds of different devices, lamps, bulbs, processes, materials, gases and energy sources result in the strangest of light spectra. Add that manmade light is generally there because the natural light is not available. You are stuck with the darn thing. True, you can set up your own light version 
with all kinds of expensive photographic lighting devices. That’s fine but really what you do is to replace one manmade environment with another manmade environment.
To photographers and others, K (Kelvin) values and wave spectra are important. A K value is an average of a light source’s color spectrum. The spectrum provides much more information about the scene than does the K value. For instance, the spectrum may have a high wave length peak and a low peak – a ‘U’ pattern. The K value will fall between the peaks and not really mean a thing. What you need is, perhaps, double filtration to correct for the two peaks.
The K value of sunlight is about 5,800. Typical daylight is either 5,000K or 6,500K depending on if you go for the US standard calibration or that of Europe. Computer monitors are calibrated to between 5,000K (reddish yellow) and 9,300K (bluish). Digital cameras often display white balance settings in terms of Kelvin values. In the spectrum of colors, red is around 1,800K, neutral is 5,000K to 6,500K and blue starts around 12,000K continuing up to 16,000K. Examples of low Kelvin light: Match flares, candles and ordinary (tungsten) light bulbs. Here are some high Kelvin items: Xenon light, analog TVs: “the bluish flicker from you neighbor’s window”. 
Unless going for abstraction, photographers compensate for the local K value/spectrum to bring the image back to “normal”. For instance, you try to make skin tones similar to those recorded in regular daylight. That may be accomplished through lens filters, white balance adjustments or post production trickery. When you do that, obviously the original scene is distorted – the ugly manmade light was, after all, the real thing.
Most fluorescent and gas discharge lamps have “interrupted spectra”, meaning the spectra are not smooth curves but a series of narrow peaks over the frequency band. Such irregular peaks, often in the yellow to green range, are very hard to filter away. The only real solution is to use alternative lighting such as flash. Gas discharge lamps include neon light and high intensity lights (mercury vapor, metal halide and sodium vapor) as used in light streets, stadiums and factories.
Then there is another issue. Film or sensors react quite differently to odd light situations than do your eyes. Your eyes and brain compensate for strange light to make it more consistent with your built in database on how a face “should” look. A camera has no such database or ability. It records incoming light according to its sensitivity to different wave lengths.
Shadows
Are shadows the opposite of light? Of course not, shadows are light just as is present elsewhere. They are a bit darker, that’s all. Zone system proponents know all about shadows being as important as high lights. The old film saying is: “expose for shadows, develop for high lights”. Or, in the case of digital photography, do the reverse, i.e. shoot for high lights and balance shadow detail in Photoshop.
The dynamic range of light in photography is typically measured in f stops. If the ratio of 
light intensity in high lights compared to minimum light is, say 1024:1, or 2, raised to the power of 10, then the range is 10 stops. There is a huge difference in the ranges different media are capable of recording or displaying. Your eyes are amazing in that not only can they cover the largest dynamic range, they also are self adjusting in real time. Other devices don’t even come close.
On a cloudy day a scene may display a dynamic range of as little as 3 stops. On a sunny day, the same scene may display a range of 12 stops. That is well within the capabilities of most eyes, being able to dynamically adjust to a 24 stop range although a more static range of 10-14 stops is more realistic. Most cameras (film and digital) can handle a range of about 8 stops, a considerable reduction. A typical print covers about 6 stops and a monitor slightly less. Newspapers only display a range of 3-4 stops.
Several techniques and technologies exist to extend either the original or the displayed range. One recent example is High Dynamic Range Photography. In traditional photography, special development techniques coupled with corresponding exposures can do the trick. Consider the Hubble telescope and its ability to record and then enhance the dimmest of light.
In practical, everyday photography, the biggest factor in getting a decent dynamic range is simply to use correct exposures. Over or under exposure quickly destroys the dynamic range. One stop overexposure loses one stop of range on the high light side. Please note that correct exposure is not the same as pointing your camera at something and letting the built-in light meter (or for that matter an external meter) blurb out some numbers. Light meters are very stupid about measuring light. Practice, practice so you truly understand exposure. Otherwise, your shadows or high lights are off, were off and will stay off, blowing you out of the water every time.
Using Light
Now that you know a little bit about light, how do you use that knowledge? In generic terms, the benefit of this knowledge is that you know more about what to expect. Make that an element in your plan. 
Photography in big cities usually means polluted air which produces a different light than that on top of Mount Everest. If you shoot in an ice cave, the light is blue, while if you shoot in a sand cave, the light is reddish. Indoor shooting at, say, Christmas, will probably produce warm, reddish photos. Shooting on a lit street may produce very strange color casts.
We do not know all there is to know about light – much remains a mystery. The current knowledge is recent or no more than a hundred years old. Yet we speak of light with deep convictions, especially in photography. An image “captures” the light, a print contains the “full range” of light, the light reflected from a face “accurately” captures the skin tones. Professional critics have a language, of their own but incomprehensible to many of us, classifying and judging light and how a photographer deals with it in his art.
A photographer can use tools to analyze light. The intensity of light falling on a subject or reflected from a subject into the lens is easily measured. He/she can even determine the color of light falling on the subject. Once the picture is taken the image can be analyzed either with software in the case of digital images or by a densitometer in the case of film. That is all fine, but no meters will ever tell the full story and in fact they may even hide the real magic.
The true story about light is not one of analysis. It is about the creative use of light presented at a particular shooting event. To create that vision, you need to realize light is not just one thing. It is a combination of many different kinds of effects and distortions. Once that is clear, here are a few ideas that you might use to figure out your very own creative toolbox. A tool box is an individual treasure chest. What is a trap to some is an opportunity to others. We are all as different as are our visions. So take the following as nonexclusive ideas, not sinister laws.
- History and Theory: The history of our understanding of light is long, colorful and by no means finished. The “seeing” interaction of eyes and brain is only partially, and very recently, understood and no doubt inaccurate. Think about the significance of all those tricky images designed to fool the brain – where straight lines suddenly look bent. Or where stationary images impossibly start to move? In your fooled brain, that is.
- Space: Most natural light comes from space. As light travels through space, it undergoes
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transformations, most quite subtle. It bends, gets malformed, disappears, reflects, is colored and ends up differently than expected in largely a random, uncontrolled manner. Light in its “cleanest” form is quite variable even if you reside on the International Space Station. The atmosphere is then doing it’s best to make matters even more complex: - Atmosphere: The atmosphere shields us from a quite harmful space environment. The ozone layer filters out UV radiation. Space is filled with particles harmful to humans that have come close to killing astronauts. These particles luckily do not penetrate the atmosphere. As the atmospheric filters do their work, light from space becomes even more modified. Then local conditions change light again, either by less filtering or more. A photograph taken in Australia or in Antarctica may be subject to a lot more UV light than elsewhere. A picture shot from an airplane at 37,000 feet is subject to more bombardment of essentially radioactive particles than one taken in Times Square, New York.
- Refraction: Light bends as it passes through certain media such as water or a lens. This leads to many special situations and opportunities, whether you appreciate oval suns, mirages, Fata Morgana, rainbows, floating mountains or tilting buildings. You figure it out. Make a list of the special situations created by refraction in your shooting environment.
- Reflections: We all have many so-so shots of tall buildings reflecting wobbly images from their glass walls. And those self portraits using a mirror belong deep in that shoe box in the garage. We realize
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how reflections from snow and water may be controlled by polarizing filters. Portrait photographers use reflectors to create a pleasing light. Film and TV crews do the same. Daylight may be modified by fill flash to create an illusion of reflections. Reflections, in any type of photography, represent huge and under used opportunities for creativity. Think about it. Create you own sun! Make your own shadows! - Time of Day: Time of day is an essential tool. Most photographs can only be successfully shot at very specific light conditions, whether it is due to the light intensity or its color balance. Examples: Rarely is noon light the best for nature photography. Long shadows may accentuate the emotional impact of a scene. Some animals are only reachable at certain hours. Downtown traffic is busier at rush hours. Indoors, the uses of ambient light through windows depend not only on time of day but also on the angle to the sun. At noon, light from a south facing window is quite different from a window facing north.
- Seasonal: Many of us associate seasons with specific events. You shoot fall colors as leaves fall. Or delicate spring colors as leaves return. Cherry trees bloom. Whales, salmon and birds migrate. Grizzlies wake up or retire. Frozen lakes thaw. Change your wardrobe. The barbeque is manned. The car gets its annual wash. The first strawberries show up. Taste the Beaujolais Nouveau or fresh halibut. Eat your heart out at Thanksgiving. Do the Christmas shopping. Snowmobiles, motor cycles or power boats roar. Sailboats tack. Dust off the camera after its winter slumber. Wash the windows, cut the lawn. File April tax returns. Harvest the apples, wheat and oranges. Does you vision include such items and more?
- Weather: Nature gives us hurricanes, tornados, cyclones, fog, heavy rain, soft rain, clouds, thunder, lightning, sunshine, snow fall, heat waves or cold spells. The impact on your creative situation and challenge is obvious. Weather not only impacts light, it affects the range of possible or desired subjects. Some like shooting close up pictures of tornados. Most of us prefer to run like hell.
- Pollution and Dust: Imagine grabbing your camera, crawling into your bed and under the covers.
Try taking a photograph of your left foot. That’s not real easy, is it? The bloody covers filter out the light. So do pollution and dust, both of which consist of airborne particles (and perhaps gases), covering earth like a blanket. Both reduce light coming through and both modify the color of light. Dramatic pictures from hazy Shanghai are perhaps interesting but not real artistic in most cases. The thing is, not all light effects are desirable in the sense they create creative opportunities. Some are simply bad news to most photographers. Here is another example: - Manmade Light: Speaking photographically, manmade light is a pest unless specifically created for photographic purposes. Blast that sodium light. Darn that fluorescent office light. Curse those wave length peaks and valleys. Green faces, orange hair. What is fun about lobster red skin? Well, nothing much. Maybe useful in some artistic visions, manmade light is a curse to most photographers.
There you are – you have a shopping list for your magical light tool box and a list of features to think about. This discussion of possible opportunities could go on much longer. It won’t, at this moment. The main idea still is that you are the one to create your own box, preferably by thinking outside the box. Try it on. Now, let’s check out colors which are just one form of light.
Colors that Aren’t but Light
The impact of color falls into two categories: First, we live in a color filled world, and therefore our art is in color: we shoot in color. Second, color may be used to accentuate something in the scene we shoot, paint or film. We let some color dominate for specific reasons, usually because of the possible emotional impact of that color.
Color can be a major part of an artistic vision and its execution. Examples include Picasso’s blue and rose periods and van Gogh’s yellow sunflowers. Of course, selecting to shoot in either color or black&white is the obvious example. Colors are part of the science surrounding photography. Equally, colors have an emotional or psychological context in photography.
A Bit of Theory
Light is characterized by three components: amplitude (intensity or brightness), frequency or wave length which relates to color and polarization (angle, vibration, reflection). Light may come in the form of a beam emitted from a light source. If the beam is aimed straight at you, it is visible as a point of bright light. From the side, that 
beam is not visible till it is scattered into a spectrum of different wave lengths. Our retinas and brains map the spectrum of wave lengths to colors.
I’m sure you have seen the standard graphs of wave length and associated colors. It goes like this: the lowest wave lengths are associated with sound as heard by humans. AM radio, TV and FM waves are next up in frequency (lower in wave length), followed by kitchen, radar and signal transmitting micro waves.
Then comes infrared light which is associated with heat – the burning logs in your fireplace emit infrared “heat”. The TV remote uses infrared waves. So far nothing is visible to us. A very narrow band of visible light, split into colors, follows. This spectrum goes from red, yellow, green, blue and magenta to violet.
After the band of colors, we return to invisibility: ultraviolet light causes sunburn. It can’t be seen by humans but is visible to bumblebees. UV light is real important in astronomy – distant galaxies and stars often only emit UV light so the Hubble telescope and some 
satellites are very sensitive to such light. Then X-rays follow. Finally, gamma radiation can kill, very important both to space travel and astrology.
Have you noticed I sometimes talk about frequencies and wave lengths as in an analog beam (scattered or not) and sometimes about light consisting of particles bouncing around in some pattern? Both ways to look at light are correct but how light consists of both waves and particles is a bit mysterious. An issue of quantum physics, debated by many from Isaac Newton to Albert Einstein, this unresolved subject is a bit beyond this essay.
But think about it: why would an electromagnetic pulse (light beam) be split or scattered by an atmospheric particle unless it too is a particle? On the other hand, are our eyes really letting in all these dirty particles that have traveled space and bounced off all kinds of pollution? I’d hope not. How do light particles penetrate a camera lens? This mystery will remain unsolved in this essay (as it is in science).
Emotional Colors
So much for theory – electromagnetic waves, infrared this and gamma that, particles, amplitudes…. Let’s switch tack a bit. Visions are emotionally driven, inner convictions. Colors, in psychology, not to mention advertising and web design, associate freely with emotions. I’m blue today. He was red hot. She was green with envy. Here is one opinion (of many) on how colors associate with emotions:
- Red is the color of fire and blood, so it is associated with energy, war, danger, strength, power, determination as well as passion, desire, and love. Red is a very emotionally intense color. It enhances human metabolism, increases respiration rate, and raises blood pressure. It has very high visibility, which is why stop signs, stoplights, and fire equipment are usually painted red. In heraldry, red is used to indicate courage. It is a color found in many national flags.
- Orange combines the energy of red and the happiness of yellow. It is associated with joy, sunshine, and the tropics. Orange represents enthusiasm, fascination, happiness, creativity, determination, attraction, success, encouragement, and stimulation. To the human eye, orange is a very hot color, so it gives the sensation of heat. Nevertheless, orange is not as aggressive as red.
- Yellow is the color of sunshine. It’s associated with joy, happiness, intellect, and energy. Yellow produces a warming effect, arouses cheerfulness, stimulates mental activity, and generates muscle energy. Yellow is often associated with food. Bright, pure yellow is an attention getter, which is the reason taxicabs are painted this color.
- Green is the color of nature. It symbolizes growth, harmony, freshness, and fertility. Green has strong emotional correspondence with safety. Dark green is also commonly associated with money. Green has great healing power. It is the most restful color for the human eye; it can improve vision. Green suggests stability and endurance.
- Blue is the color of the sky and sea. It is
often associated with depth and stability. It symbolizes trust, loyalty, wisdom, confidence, intelligence, faith, truth, and heaven. Blue is considered beneficial to the mind and body. It slows human metabolism and produces a calming effect. Blue is strongly associated with tranquility and calmness. In heraldry, blue is used to symbolize piety and sincerity. - Purple combines the stability of blue and the energy of red. Purple is associated with royalty. It symbolizes power, nobility, luxury, and ambition. It conveys wealth and extravagance. Purple is associated with wisdom, dignity, independence, creativity, mystery, and magic. According to surveys, almost 75 percent of pre-adolescent children prefer purple to all other colors. Purple is a very rare color in nature; some people consider it to be artificial.
- White is associated with light, goodness, innocence, purity, and virginity. It is considered to be the color of perfection. White means safety, purity, and cleanliness. As opposed to black, white usually has a positive connotation. White can represent a successful beginning. In heraldry, white depicts faith and purity.
- Black is associated with power, elegance, formality, death, evil, and mystery. Black is a mysterious color associated with fear and the unknown (black holes). It usually has a negative connotation (blacklist, black humor, ‘black death’). Black denotes strength and authority; it is considered to be a very formal, elegant, and prestigious color (black tie, black Mercedes). In heraldry, black is the symbol of grief.
Some claim colors guide our lives in a sublime mix of emotions and realities. Personally, I’m not so sure. I believe we all are more complex than that. Form, harmony and discord, for instance, seem important as well. Probably context, such as being fired, getting married, suffering from depression or winning the lottery, emotionally overrides any color setting. Colors as emotional impacts are nevertheless legitimate parts of the magical toolbox but not at the exclusion of other factors.
Real World Color
AA Gills of the London Times recently visited Tasmania and filed the following observation (italics mine). Rarely have I seen so many unusual wave lengths covered in so few sentences:
- The rocky shore is tortured into a macabre and dramatic beauty. The waves stand up on their hind legs and lunge at the land, to be flayed into bone-white shreds by the black rocks. In the late afternoon, the sky is glowing pale gold, dark mauve clouds are filigreed pink, thousand of mutton birds (sheerwaters) fly low over the silver water, and we hurry back in the teeth of the wind to our hut.
Now, that is the drama of colors, if somewhat tortured. I’m sure Conrad had not been able to put it better. AA Gills
actually is a restaurant critic and feature writer for the Times but seems to have his hands in plenty of pots. Good for him.
Take that sun beam traveling through space towards you. At high noon, that beam will hit the atmosphere straight on. Since the atmospheric particles are much larger than those associated with the beam, the beam is scattered into predominately short wave lengths – blue. Thus the sky is blue during the day. As the sun sets, the angle of the sun beam is to close to 90 degrees. Now we see more of the longer wave lengths – red.
Colors depend on altitude – the higher you are the bluer the scene and the sharper the shadows. A higher altitude means mostly less pollution and more unhealthy radiation from space ranging from UV to gamma light. Sun beams are less scattered, hence the scene is lighter. There are fewer clouds if you go high enough. Perhaps you are high enough to encounter snow which reflects enormous amounts of light. Or, returning to zero altitude – sea level – you better consider a similar high reflection of light from the sea surface. In 
this case, polarization becomes yet another tool. Keep this in mind next time you climb Mount Everest.
The color spectrum varies tremendously from one location to the next. You have monochrome environments such as deserts, ski slopes, some beaches, polar ice areas, tundra, oceans, mines and tunnels. Next, there are monochromes with occasional color items, such as many parts of an inner city or fireworks. Low light photography is usually close to monochrome, wherever you are. Intensive colors are found in many tropical locations. Specific places such as the Dutch tulip fields in the right season or Brazilian Samba festivals are colorful. You choose your film or white balance (or other settings) with that in mind.
Colors Ain’t Colors
Colors aren’t real. They simply are associated by your brain with light particles vibrating at certain frequencies. As humans, color processing follows a complex path through the eyes, to the retina with its three basic sensors (blue, bluish-green and yellow-green of all 
odd compositions) and on to the brain, where it is all sorted out according to a set of rules. A given wave length is translated into a “color”.
Put an 80A blue filter on your lens (or simply look through it) and colors change. This particular filter changes light emitted from reddish tungsten sources back to “normal” daylight color spectra, given daylight film or white balance. Here is what actually happens: the filter is manufactured so it absorbs vibrations in the 1800-2500K range (perceived as red) while letting the shorter wave lengths through. The result of applying the filter is that the scene appears to emit relatively more short wave length rays, correcting for the excess emission of light in the 2800K range typical of tungsten light. It’s all a matter of wave lengths, not “colors”. 
Walk into a color darkroom and twist the color correction dials a bit and the color print comes out quite differently. Play with color settings in Photoshop and the image changes accordingly. Put on your sunglasses and colors shift. Color blindness shifts how wave lengths are mapped in your brain due to some part of the system being damaged. Several other deficiencies change our perceptions of color. Colors are what you make them to be.
Next, we need to represent color in print. Now we deal with a totally new set of representations. CMYK (cyan, magenta, yellow, black) is the traditional print representation which has absolutely nothing to do with how we humans perceive or process color. Pantone’s system of six colors for increased precision adds orange and green to the CMYK system.
Do Computers See Colors?
Computers use their own concepts of color representation. Colors are associated with an RGB (Red, Green and Blue) model. This model assigns trios of numbers from 0 to 255 to the “colors”. Red, for instance is coded as (255,0,0) and blue is (0,0,255). (0,0,0) means black, (255,255,255) stands for white. These numbers are used not only to describe 
colors internally but also to control the electron gun of an analog monitor or the transistors in flat screen monitors.
The RGB model does not actually represent real colors but are simply some numbers that could represent anything or nothing. The numbers do not automatically result in accurate colors. The computer and the monitor need to be told what an “accurate” color is. This information is held in one or more arrays that say “apply this correction when sending info to the monitor or printer”. You are responsible for keeping those arrays up to date, using available tools. Many of us don’t do that and hence get used to strange colors and fail to understand why others complain.
Monitor color guns or color sensitive “dots” must also be carefully calibrated to some standard color space. Such calibration uses elaborate color management tools. The standard monitor color spaces come in many flavors of RGB (red, green, blue): sRGB,
Apple RGB, Adobe RGB and ColorMatch RGB. On the printing side (CMYK), we have a set of US standards together with corresponding (different) European and Japanese variations.
A simple but crucial monitor setting is the brightness, referred to as the “gamma” setting. Just for fun, Apple uses a different gamma standard than PCs. A Mac calibrated image looks darker on a calibrated PC and vice versa. Great, isn’t it?
It’s not over yet. Next is the coordination of color spaces and calibration across devices. The digital camera, the scanner, the monitor and printing using external labs or the onsite photo printer must be calibrated accurately to compatible color spaces. This is not a trivial undertaking although special software may reduce the pain a bit.
Computers have no understanding of colors – to them it is just a numbers game.
Colors, Oh Those Damn Colors
Maybe you conclude things were simpler in the old days of taking your color film to some lab or retailer. Heck no. In the “old days”, a good print meant endless darkroom exercises tinkering with enlarger settings, which doesn’t even start dealing with the external 
viewing or printing issues. Color management was not easier but merely overlooked in many cases, or more accurately, achieved in a different way.
Colors and photography are a mess. Technology makes it all harder, not easier. Truly managing colors in photography is a massive undertaking that many photographers avoid or ignore. The bright side is that if you make the effort to master color and its management, you are far ahead of much of the competition. The bleak side is the hours you spend on tinkering with calibrations, devices and standards. Many of us end up with a compromise. One compromise is to let specialists deal with the whole issue. That is expensive. Another option is to wing it. You learn what makes a nice print on a trial and error basis. You learn that a bluish tint on the monitor results in a great print on your Canon printer. And you get on with life.
Let’s jump into yet another issue. Different films as well as different digital chips have unique sensitivities to the wave lengths of color. A particular film (or sensor), black&white or color, may be more sensitive to blue than red. Another film or sensor may behave in the opposite manner. Each film is associated with a sensitivity profile ranging over the wave length spectrum. This spectrum sets the film apart from other films. The same is true for sensor chips in a digital camera. The difference is that the chip is permanently in place while, in the film case, you can simply change films to match the shooting situation and your vision. The 
back end (film or chip) may be sensitive to waves beyond the visible spectrum. In the case of film, that may be X-ray waves.
The latest Leica M camera, the first digital version, suffered (suffers?) from an abnormal sensitivity to infrared light. This resulted in strange distortions that were visible in the images under some circumstances. Given a price of around $4,500 for just the camera body, that is a bit embarrassing. Is it a unique case? I think not.
Now you know one major reason I love black&white photography. Not that any of the color issues magically disappear (they surely don’t since you have to manage the color to gray scale transition) but dealing with a gray scale is a lot more natural to me than tinkering endlessly with scores of color standards. And in my mind, b&w has an artistic impact unmatched in any medium. That, of course, is just my view.
Using Color: The Magical Toolbox
Color issues fall in two arenas: Before Exposure and After Exposure. Colors are only a form of light or, precisely, they come from light beams split into color waves. Everything in the previous section about light applies to color waves as well. This section expands on the special form of light referred to as colors.
The Before Exposure considerations include:
You have an artistic vision. You developed a photographic style. You are on assignment. Let’s say you’ll shoot color. The first 
consideration is that your vision most likely favors certain color combinations, mood and overall light. It may be in-your-face harsh light and strong, exaggerated colors. Or perhaps it is calm muted colors with a minimum of shadows. It might be a mix of the two. Next, mesh that vision with the requirements for the shoot (if any). The vision rules, the requirements are the handcuffs.
Then, find the location that matches the vision and requirements. You are, of course, familiar with all the ways in which colors and light vary depending on a great many, but often predictable factors (excluding weather in the case of outdoors shoots – if you need sunshine and it’s raining hard, you’re out of luck).
Now you have advanced to the chosen location. It is a matter of setting up the actual shoot. The dominating consideration still is color and light. Even with the most informed choice of location, there will be color and light issues to deal with. Things are always just a bit out of sync. Sometimes they are way out of sync. The exception, of course, is if you maintain your own control over light and color by 
supplying you own lighting setup.
Your vision, of course, favors certain compositional elements, including color preferences and associated moods and balances. Now faced with the real world, perhaps the scene does not match the vision perfectly or, maybe, not at all. It is time to reconsider and improvise. Or walk away which might be costly.
So a particular dance starts up, similar to the “As Time Goes By Can Can” already mentioned for exposure and composition. Let’s call this dance “The High Noon Two Step”. You run around the location, checking out shadows, highlights, midtones, light ratios and color shifts, perhaps wishing you were free to move around the country instead. You’re adjusting this and moving that. You 
tinker with the camera, fitting filters, changing film, moving the white balance this way, then that way. You’re pre visualizing like a mad man. You snapping test shots left, right, up, down and possibly upside down.
Eventually, you have to admit you used all the tools, the scene is OK and it’s time to actually start shooting. The madness actually followed a path (although no one may believe it). So the “As Time Goes By Can Can” compositional dance is about to start. The color work is temporarily on hold. Actual pictures are about to happen.
After Exposure, there are more opportunities to screw up or to enhance the images:
Development strategy or initial Photoshop corrections: You did, of course, pre visualize the image which should define the steps to take in development and printing. But sometimes the initial result isn’t quite 
what you expected. Maybe your white balance setting was a bit off. Perhaps the color film wasn’t quite to specs or the development chemicals a bit too old. So don’t be too surprised you have to apply some initial corrections to get the colors back on the intended track.
Alter the color balance and related features: Your pre visualization may well include corrections to the original image. Perhaps you shoot digitally but the plan is for a black&white image. Maybe you planned to enhance the original image to fit into your vision or work spec: apply more vivid or muted colors, shift the colors to some off beat point, add some special effect or combine several images. There are literally infinite possibilities to make your vision come true, whatever it is.
End use adjustments: Most likely the image has to be adjusted fit the particular color (and other) requirements of the intended end market, be it a photo album, web site, 
print advertisement, gallery show, museum purchase or a shoe box. Each end-use has different requirements, usually radically different: the color capabilities of the web are very different from an offset printer as an example. Typically, your image must be adjusted into several versions: perhaps one to show to clients in your carry-around portfolio, one for your web site portfolio, one for your long term hard drive storage, one containing your printing instructions, another for off-site printing, low resolution versions for Flickr, MySpace and the hundreds of other promotional web sites.
The final image and follow ups: You’ll produce the actual high resolution image in all its glorious colors to be used, published, shown or exhibited. Hopefully you’ll reap the well deserved rewards. Then you’ll consider documenting and protecting all the color (and other) work you have put into not just this image but the perhaps thousands of other images in your portfolio. This is a real 
management issue – how do you keep track of all these versions of a single image and all its unique settings for different purposes? Especially considering you own thousands of images? How do you keep them safe over long periods of time? How do you record color (and other) settings so you can repeat them? There are many solutions available – I’ll have to leave that part to you.
That’s it for the discussion of colors. Together with the light discussion, you have a pretty good foundation for dealing with these two critical elements. The idea was to alert you to some of the intricate details of these basic components of your magical toolbox. Next, we’ll examine the two other fundamental components. That is the camera with its lenses and backends followed by the human system of eyes, retinas and the brain in processing the images.
Light in the Camera
A camera is basically a fairly simple mechanical object. It consists of a lens, a shutter system and a back end device such as a digital chip or a film. The back end catches the light remaining after passing through the lens and the shutter system. Then the back end stores a representation of the light by chemically altering the film or by writing to file a digital representation of the energy hitting the sensor chip. That’s about it. Of course there are additional elements supporting the three basic ones – light meters, flashes, digital software and much else for the gadget happy photographer. One good advice is to stick with the basics as we will in this essay.
Expensive Lenses or Not
A lens is just some pieces of glass or, occasionally, plastic mounted in a tube. It gathers light to be recorded by the back end of the camera. Engineers discovered, over the last 150 years or so, that it is not possible to build an accurate lens. Today’s lenses are incredibly complex in pursuit of the fewest inaccuracies and/or the most pleasing distortions. Even so, a lens does not pass on what it sees but its distorted version of what is in front of it. Each brand with its focal length, f-values, focusing system and 
even individual lenses of a particular specification/brand have different and, to some extent, measurable characteristics.
Hence, no matter what you pay, lenses are not perfect from a scientific point of view – the light coming through the lens is reduced in intensity and the light beams hitting the back end are distorted due to the optical imperfections of any lens. There is no way around that. Most of these distortions are correctable, either in a darkroom or in Photoshop (or similar software).
Here are just a few of the possible imperfections: pincushion or barrel distortion, image corners out of focus, image corner light falloff, vignetting, ghost images, flares or the curvilinear effect from fisheye lenses. More generally: there are out of focus optical distortions (monochromatic aberration) such as tilt (perspective changes), defocus (sensitivity to focus changes – related to depth of field and focal length), spherical (imperfect refraction resulting in “circular” blurs of light points), coma (off-axis points are rendered wedge-shaped), astigmatism (certain images 
appear doubled) and field curvature (this stands for barrel and pincushion distortion). Lastly there are the optical lens color shifts (chromatic aberrations) that may be axial or lateral.
Aesthetically, what is pleasing given the distortions to one photographer is deplorable to another. Lens snobs (connoisseurs) often concentrate their attention on the “bokeh” of the lens – how the out of focus parts of the image are rendered. Bokeh is generally not measurable but subjective. In a digital world, bokeh of a lens is easily manipulated in Photoshop.
Adding to the imperfections of the lens are the human errors – using the wrong lens and the wrong settings. Then the problem of low light and handheld shooting often results in handshake blur, in some cases reduced by built in image stabilizers – a fairly new feature.
The wise photographer learns to live with and benefit from the characteristics of a set of favorite lenses. Realizing the full benefits of a lens consists of long and intensive use in typical shooting situations. Some photographers claim the only way to understand the strength and weakness of a lens is to exclusively use it for a year.
The Mechanical Wonders of Shutters
Then we have the shutter system. Better yet, we might include the aperture device and call it the light control system. While we are at it, let’s add the light meter present in most cameras. There are endless engineering variations of these systems. All of them share one characteristic. 
They are inaccurate.
Accuracy is a relative concept. The shutter and the light system may actually be quite accurate except it is not doing what you tell it to do. Say that you set a shutter speed of 1/500 second. The shutter will actually give you 1/400 (say). Typically, every time you set 1/500, you will consistently get 1/400. The shutter will most likely not randomly jump around from 1/250 to 1/700 and everything in between. Likewise, the light system may consistently set you up for 1 stop overexposure. These issues are not fatal as long as you calibrate the camera or at least identify the issues. This is not very hard to do.
Potentially a much worse issue is that of relying on automation – auto exposure, auto focus and in digital cameras, auto white point. Both work efficiently only in trivial shooting situations and actually encourage bad or at least boring compositions. Consider auto focus which requires you to point the camera at the subject and then expose. That composition is not likely to be very exciting. Of course, you can point the camera at the subject, lock the focus 
and recompose. But if so, why not manually focus which is faster, easier and more accurate?
A few cameras allow you to use off center focus points. My Canon has that ability and that works quite well although even the nine or so focusing points are not enough in my case. How about a continuously adjustable focus point? Is that too much to ask for?
Then, there is auto exposure which works great if you shoot even surfaces of 18% grey. If not, trouble soon pops up. Try this on: grab your camera, go out on a dark night to a nearby well trafficked road, making sure you don’t get run over. Try to take a picture using auto exposure of the oncoming traffic. First, point the camera in the vicinity of the headlight coming towards you and expose. Next, place the headlights off center and expose. The first image will be way underexposed while the second will be overexposed. The correct exposure is somewhere in the middle and only some intelligent guess work will save the night.
To help exposure issues, many cameras can bracket the shots automatically, up and down a few stops. That is quite helpful but won’t work in the roadside example – that variation in exposure far exceeds the typical bracketing settings.
Back ends – Film or Silicon
In a film camera, you load a particular film. That film possess unique features: brand, batch, age, overall sensitivity (ASA or DIN) and the more precise spectral sensitivity over wave lengths all the way down to the individual roll and how it was handled and stored 
from manufacturing and on. Many photographers overlook the importance of handling and storing film correctly and are punished by color casts and other unexpected issues. High temperatures and any kind of radiation make bad news. Film may be over or underexposed, either by mistake or by purpose, in which case the film is pushed or pulled, which, then, is compensated for in development.
In a digital camera, the back end consists of a chip, onboard memory and software. The chip possesses various unique characteristics ranging from resolution and sensitivity to size. The onboard software takes the raw input from the chip, massages it and converts it into an image file of some standard format, usually JPEG. RAW images may – or not – bypass the onboard software to produce an “accurate” image. Some digital cameras allow you to modify the onboard software for white balance, shooting what the manufacturer considers typical situations (”Hawaiian Sunsets”, “Cathedrals” etc.) and much else. Removing “red eyes” has become quite an industry because most camera manufacturers knowingly put the flash in the wrong place.
Of course, the image produced by the back end – film or digital – is not accurate at all. Consider the journey of light from the sun towards earth, bent and hammered as it flies along. Then the atmosphere with reflections, refractions, collisions and 
lots more does its trick or treat act. The treacherous lens adds to the wounds, the shutter and light system adds to the insult and the back end lets everyone down. Then add this little element to the pot:
If you are a Photoshop affectionate, you may have played – or even used – some of the fancy plug-ins that attempt to change the characteristics of various back ends. There are plug ins that “compensate” for or “emulate” all kinds of film brands. You can make your digital photo look like it was shot with HP 400 black and white film. Or Velvia color film. Or anything else you may fancy. There are other plug-ins making your film images look like they were digitally shot. Other filters make your image look like it was shot in 1853. Of course, all you do is to add more distortions to your image.
The Ultimate Camera
All we can expect of a camera is for it to give us images we like. Or images we can 
“improve” using various tools. We must have sufficient control over the shooting session. We can’t get bogged down in technical gadgetry. We can deal with the distortions produced by the camera. Just accept the unavoidable fact that the camera gives you a highly distorted view of the light from the subject you’re shooting. Then keep shooting.
The Ultimate Camera is the one you are happy with and gives you images you like without too much fuss. It may play nasty tricks on you once in a while but that’s life. Do be aware that automations and gimmicks will generally make your life harder. Keep it simple and shoot as much as you can afford. Equipment prices have little to do with this – $20 Holga cameras have quite a following and artistic acceptance because of the extreme amount of distortions produced. They aren’t as great if you want to be a basket ball sports photographer.
This post surfaced a lot of issues about cameras and photography – sources of untold inaccuracies, distortions and fallacies in almost every step on the road. Some 
may think that digital technology will make all that hassle go away. The answer is no. The reason for that is that most of the issues have nothing to do with photography. The behavior of light and how our brains process color information are items completely outside our control and do not change no matter what the camera is doing or if it is digital or film based.
The few remaining professional film cameras are marvelous technical machines, built from 60-80 years of crucifying development. They survived anything from nuclear blasts to World Wars to landing on the moon. They even survived Uncle Ben and the punch bowl. They have been used to punch out muggers, stop bullets and to drive down nails. They are stolen, fenced and stolen again. They remain faithfully capable of taking great photos as long as there is film to load and a live finger to press that shutter release.
Professional digital cameras build on that tradition but have not quite been through the hazing of their film brothers. Yet they are the result of terrific technology advances that won’t stop for a long 
time. But no matter how big a sensor or how smart the auto focus, physical laws do not change. Digital technology faces exactly the same issues as does film technology but is nowhere closer to overcome such issues. That is because these issues go beyond cameras. A $40,000 digital Hasselblad system does not reduce pollution in Shanghai. Nor does it correct for ice cave blues. It can’t cure color blindness. Compositions with the Hasselblad are no better than those from my father’s old mechanical monster.
Cameras give us an image frozen in time. You press the shutter button. The shutter fires for a given period of time. The back end records the light received in that period of time. The raw image is done and reflects only that slice in time. This leads us to the next subject and two very different devices – our eyes that record images in an analog manner and our brain that processes those analog images in real time. This is way more complex and sophisticated than that camera. But first: some words from the wise.
More Quotes from the Wise
- I like to watch the person viewing my photographs to see if their eyes twinkle or cloud with tears. Does the smile sneak out when they were not expecting it to? Then I know I have captured emotion that can be shared. -Marsha Cairo
- A big shot is a little shot that kept shooting. -Amanda Caldwell; The mystery isn’t in the technique, it’s in each of us. -Harry Callahan; If your pictures aren’t good enough, you’re not close enough. -Robert Capa; Rules aren’t any good if they don’t work! The only real rules are the laws of physics and optics. -Dean Collins
- Images at their passionate and truthful best are as powerful as words can ever be. If they alone cannot bring change, they can at least provide an understanding mirror of man’s actions, thereby sharpening human awareness and awakening conscience. -Cornell Capa
- (Professional) photographers are like hookers: at first we started doing it because we liked it and it
felt good, then we kept doing it but only for our friends, and NOW we’re still doing it but are charging money for doing it! -Dean Collins - Pictures, regardless of how they are created and recreated, are intended to be looked at. This brings to the forefront not the technology of imaging, which of course is important, but rather what we might call the eyenology (seeing). -Henri Cartier-Bresson
- Thinking should be done before and after, not during photographing. Success depends on the extent of one’s general culture, one’s set of values, one’s clarity of mind and one’s vivacity. The thing to be feared most is the artificially contrived, the contrary to life. -Henri Cartier-Bresson
- Our eye must constantly measure, evaluate. We alter our perspective by a slight bending of the knees; we convey the chance meeting of lines by a simple shifting of our heads a thousandth of an inch…. We compose almost at the same time we press the shutter, and in placing the camera closer or farther from the subject, we shape the details – taming or being tamed by them. -Henri Cartier-Bresson
- ..throughout the history of art it has been art itself – in all its forms – that has inspired art… today’s photographs are so geared to life that one can learn more from them than from life itself. -Van Deren Coke
- The camera is a killing chamber, which speeds up the time it claims to be conserving. Like coffins exhumed and pried open, the photographs put on show what we were and what we will be again. -Peter Conrad
- Photography is like fishing. You go out in the morning with no idea of what the trip will bring. Sometimes luck is on your side and all your crab pots are full of prime Lobsters. Other times you get nothing. -Bob Croxford
- …There are too many people studying it [photography] now who are never going to make it. You can’t give them a formula for making it. You have to have it in you first, you don’t learn it. The seeing eye is the important thing. -Imogen Cunningham
Light in Your Head
What Do the Eyes See?
Superficially, our eyes share some characteristics with a camera. Eyes have lenses, irises and corneas that work like aperture and focusing controls. They understand and adjust 
for different light levels. There is a retina back end consisting of seven layers of light sensitive receptors that pass information to our brains. The eyes’ focusing, aperture and light controls are infinitely more sensitive and fast than those of any camera, however costly or “digitally advanced”.
Do our eyes accurately record the Truth and pass it on to the brain? No. Eyes have limitations. Some of us are near sighted, others far sighted and a few are color blind. Others are blind, or nearly so. Not to forget crossed or wandering eyes. To older people, focus muscles get worn out. The eyes may contract illnesses. The lenses and corneas are easily damaged. Many lenses are shaped in an inaccurate way, resulting in distortions. The receptors may get temporarily blinded by sudden surges in light levels.
There are big businesses involved in fixing your eyes. Eye glasses, sunglasses and contact lenses eat up billions of our dollars while introducing even more distortions. Many of these devices change the focus and color of the light reaching your eyes. Some even change to color of the eyes themselves. Surgery chains happily operate on your eyes at a remarkably low price, changing your point of view again.
The eyes and the rest of the visual system do not operate on light or colors the way a camera does. The human system transforms the light entering the eyes to initially straight lines that eventually combine into curved lines and contours. Colors and light levels are 
judged by comparing the curves. Colors are no longer represented by K values or any other ordinary system. Light is no longer measured by absolute levels, as is done in the photo cell of a light meter. The process of interpreting all these lines, contours and relative levels introduces yet another level of inaccuracy. It is the basis of the many illusions with which some (such as psychiatrists) like to work or play.
Add the analog feature of our eyes and visual system. There is no such thing as one view of our surroundings. The eyes constantly receive new information. They react to the information in an eternal cycle of adjustments. Most of us have two eyes. Each eye receives a two dimensional view. The visual system combines the two dimensional views into a three dimensional view. Take that, you one-eyed, two dimensional cameras.
Think about it. Here are your relatively tiny eyes that have incomparable power and flexibility relative to any camera at any price and size. But accurate – don’t look for accuracy or “Truth” here. Sorry.
Your Brain Is Fooling You
The brain does fix it all, in a manner of speech. It is in complete charge of our perceptions. It even adds a whole emotional dimension to the information from the eyes. Of course, the brain controls the eyes themselves, not to mention all of you. A regular control freak, your brain is. But whatever the brain decides to present to you is the truth 
because you have no source for a second opinion.
The trouble is we don’t quite understand what our brain does with that relatively straight forward stream of distorted light entering the eyes. We can’t control the process. We do know that what we see is an interpretation created by the brain. What are the rules for this interpretation? Here you enter a real complex issue studied by many very clever people with lots of theories, some of which are contradictory.
One theory states that the brain creates an interpolated view that is based on incomplete information from the eyes. This, again, explains the visual illusions mentioned earlier. Manipulate the incomplete information reaching the brain and it makes predictably bad decisions. There are various theories how this interpretation works, such as the one claiming the brain uses the complex math of Bayesian science.
Most theories agree that the brain is not an impartial recorder or interpreter of truth. It receives input from the eyes and all our other sensors. It examines the input, compares it to prior input (“experience”, “knowledge”) in its database and modifies the original input to make it more understandable and safer. Take, for instance, the novice 911 medic. The first job experiences are extremely traumatic but become routine fairly quickly. The work isn’t getting easier but that the brain distorts the reality to protect the worker. The same goes for novice soldiers entering their first battle. Later they become seasoned veterans as their brains and experience database kicks in its protective circuits.
In a more peaceful world, how many times have you used the expression “If you’ve seen one, you’ve seen them all” as applied to practically anything. The brain learns from experience and applies it to any similar situation in the future. The phenomenon of “deja vu” is similar. A new input is suddenly associated with a previous experience that may or may not be real. Theories abound on how this works, but suffice to say that the brain is quite prepared to play games with you.
The brain also makes basic assumptions such as that light is usually coming from above. It relies on prior experience to produce a predicable, safe interpretation. It is almost like the old (very outdated) saying in IT circles: You will never go wrong by buying IBM. The brain produces an image that it thinks you will like. It even goes as far as making sure that image won’t hurt you too much.
Then there is the “Gestalt” theory. It states that the brain receives a bunch of sub components of the visual image. The brain then combines these sub components into the whole according to a set of rules. This theory claims the brain uses six distinct rules to achieve its goal: perhaps, perhaps not.
Other theories claim the rules depend on personality, race, gender, occupation, education, age, attitudes and values and so on. I suppose that makes intuitive sense. A different theory discards most of this theory: the brain receives sufficient information and does not make interpretations.
Here you are: a full circle and total confusion. Does this sound like the visual system capable of presenting Reality? Is it even designed to show Reality? The simple answers are No and No. On top of all the other distortions, the brain adds/filters out its own version of Reality. It’s not a damn thing we can do about it. Don’t look for accuracy or “Truth” here. Sorry. Jack Nicholson cried out to Tom Cruise in A Few Good Men: “You can’t handle the truth”. How true.
Part 2b – Dimensions and Photography?
What on Earth do dimensions have in common with photography? That’s an excellent question and I’m sure the answer is not all that immediately clear. For one thing, the word “dimensions” can mean many a thing. Which meaning is it? Photography is physically two dimensional: up, down and left, right. That print or computer image is definitely flat, so what’s the problem?
There is no problem. But “dimensions” can lead to many useful ideas to be included in the magical toolbox. As all of this post, the goal is to somehow generate thinking outside the traditional box.
Here are a couple of the “dimension” issues in photography. The simplistic way of looking at a printed photo is to view it as the flat two dimensional object. Yet, we’re concerned with the meaning of the photo and how it gains sufficient interest to be regarded as piece of art.
First, that two dimensional photo really is three dimensional. Very few photos lack some form of depth aspect. Ansel Adams’ landscapes would not have their impact without their strong perception of depth. On the other extreme, depth can be minimal in macro photography due the characteristics of the lens. Take a look at the Picasso paintings in the section – many use a very limited depth perspective.
Second, take sports photography. Sports photography is all about catching excitement. No one cares about a photo with a bunch of 7′ guys in baggy uniforms hanging around gazing at the moon. Kobe Bryant rounding up three defenders and sinking that buzzer shot in split second action is more like it. The basic dimensions here are position, distance and time (aka speed).
Third, a really good photo contains more than a two or three dimensional space. There is something special about that picture. We naturally want to know what that “special” is. It might be an “emotional” or a “time” dimension. Perhaps it is a “social” or “racial” dimension. It can even be a dimension used in math or physics. It can be a lot of things and the purpose of this discussion is to figure out how dimensions – aka unique characteristics – can become integral parts of photographic visions 
and toolboxes.
Like everything else, the dimensions of an artist’s work are unique and personal. Camera stores do not carry ready-to-go sets of dimensions. There are no standard set of dimensions; each artist defines a unique set. Some dimensions are lifelong companions, some are more flexible. The often lifelong racial dimension, for instance, is important to some, while others only care about perhaps more short term emotional dimensions such as depression or euphoria. Dimensions leave you open to think about your art and its character in a slightly different way.
If it sounds as if dimensions are just another word for beliefs or opinions, you are partially right. A belief system certainly is one part of these dimensions – but not the only influence. There are two groups of relevant dimensions: first – physical dimensions which can project a unique view of the world on our art. As an example, the images in this section distort regular physical dimensions. You might say these dimensions come from the outside flowing inwards. The second set flows from the inside outwards and includes creativity, beliefs, attitudes, skills and motivation. This is about how the world views us as artists – good/bad – and how we’d like the world to view us – and what we can do about any discrepancy between the two. Impact is an important part of art. The images seen here project the artist’s view very efficiently. They make a difference.
Here is an example of impact. The mural below is one art’s most influential statements on war. Denouncing the 1937 Nazi bombing of the Spanish town of Guernica during the Spanish Civil War, it shows the death, violence, brutality and suffering of war. Hundreds, maybe thousands, were killed as the war’s Fascist side used massive fire power on Republican civilians. In 1937, the artist said:
- “The Spanish struggle is the fight of reaction against the people, against freedom. My whole life as an artist has been nothing more than a continuous struggle against reaction and the death of art. How could anybody think for a moment that I could be in agreement with reaction and death? … In the panel on which I am working, which I shall call Guernica, and in all my recent works of art, I clearly express my abhorrence of the military caste which has sunk Spain in an ocean of pain and death.”
Images in this Section
The approach to the images in this section is a bit different. There are a few photos but the main thrust is based on the artistry of Pablo Picasso. If there ever was an artist with very personal dimensions, his 
name is Picasso.
Picasso’s dimensions are not the obedient linear objects where the sky is blue, the sun yellow and the ladies have creamy skin. Skins are blue, red or perhaps rose, noses are displaced with two eyes on one side of the face, men are part bulls, perspective is in uproar or even not existing. He shamelessly uses all imaginable linear and often non linear distortions.
That’s Picasso, one of the greatest of them all. As you get further into this section, I think you’ll realize why he is such a splendid illustration to this section.
What’s a Dimension?
Most of us intuitively know what dimensions are. They are horizontal, vertical and depth – aka a basic three dimensional space. That’s what our senses, especially eyes and brain, are accustomed to and how most of us perceive our surroundings. There is nothing wrong with this basic view.
Many of us go on to muddle up this basic set by mentally adding dimensions that aren’t dimensions. That might include adding altitude, direction, distance and position. Even worse, some would add movement, speed, departure, arrival, season and weekday dimensions. None of these are good dimensions – in the first case, all those “dimensions” are just combinations of the three basic ones and in the second case we should add the common dimension “time” instead of the other “junk” dimensions. It is perfectly fine to use computed measures such as altitude, distance and weekday – they are not basic, unique dimensions of the context. Overuse of false dimensions doesn’t really matter to the average citizen but can cause a great deal of confusion to a visual artist.
Here is the definition we’ll use: a dimension is a unique, basic characteristic of an object that does not depend on any other characteristics or dimensions. That is by no means the only definition – many others are more permissibly. Consider a common statement such as “He added another dimension by claiming Iraq had WMD”. Do Iraq and WMD somehow make a dimension? Do they define some other dimension or is it just a cliché? Apply the definition then the statement probably is junk: no dimension was added. Saying “He claimed Iraq had WMD” is more accurate. 
Take “time” as an example of a common dimension and say we define that characteristic as “seconds”. The definition then means that “hours” is not a valid dimension since it simply is “seconds” multiplied by 3,600. In a similar mode, “velocity” is not a true dimension since it is equal to “distance” divided by “time”. “Hours” and “velocity” of course are perfectly valid measurements of an object – they are just not true dimensions.
Incidentally, “distance” is not a good, basic dimension since it relates two points to each other – “point” is perhaps a better dimension? But point usually is represented by coordinates so then “point” is not a good dimension. And coordinates combine the height and width dimensions in a two dimensional space. Just scratch “distance, point and coordinates” from your list of dimensions – height and width are sufficient to provide calculations and measurements such as distance, points and coordinates.
Here is an example from the business world: Products and Customers are commonly used, valid dimensions. Neither can logically be expressed as some permutation of the other: “Customers” are not some combination of “Products” or vice versa. On the other hand, “Invoice” is not a dimension – it’s a combination of Customers and Products. “Delivery” and “Rebates” are not good dimensions but “Time” and “Money” are all valid. 
Technically, true dimensions are orthogonal to all other dimensions of that object. That means true dimensions are independent from each other – they share no characteristics and cannot interfere with each other. When you think about your art and its different features or when you split up the various important aspects of your work, independence of each feature and aspect will help make them much clearer and actionable. That’s how dimensions come in handy.
Maybe you still wonder what the point of this discussion is. The goal is to extend your photographic art by adding additional content or “dimensions”. We want to reach beyond those naive, two dimensional photographs. This is hard to do unless you know what make a real and unique dimension.
Combining Dimensions
Very few objects are characterized by only one dimension. In fact, if an object only has one dimension, then it probably is a dimension. Already mentioned are the common, basic “spaces” of two (vertical, horizontal), three (add depth) and four (add time) dimensions.
Let’s play a little game. Below are four photos. They all, of course, contain the two basic dimensions but the question is what other dimensions are contained in the images. Now, that is a trick question because we don’t know what the dimensions that the photographer thought about and, second, your answer is unlikely to be the same as my answer. There should be no rights or wrongs. Do make the effort of identifying two or three extra dimensions for each image. Better yet; write them down before continuing to read – no cheating!
Did you come up with your set of dimensions for each of the four images? If not, go back and start over!
Here is my take – yours probably is different. The first of my dimensions is shared by all images – “light”. All of the four images manipulate light which easily is a unique dimension. Then, “color” or “black and white” are not dimensions. They are just special aspects of light. The first photograph emphasizes “depth”. The second deals with a “social” dimension – the subject is a mine in South America with less than human working conditions. The third image is primarily “emotional” – in this case happiness or joy. The last photo includes a “motion” component, which isn’t really a dimension – use “time” instead.
Let’s go back to the business example – do you think “Customer” and “Product” are relevant dimensions to the images above? That would be really stretching it, right? Dimensions are not universal; they are very dependent on context. If you care to continue this exercise: what dimensions would you associate with specific photographic styles such as Forensic, Journalism, Documentary, Commercial (e.g., Fashion, Wedding, Modeling, Food and Travel), Portraits, Nature, Street and Abstract?
On the flip side, what kinds of photography do you associate with dimensions such as Spirituality, Evil, Cost, Price, Manners, Danger, Meters, Ounces, Health, Ethics, Shadows, Emotions, Money, Climate, Politics, Capital and Food? Are these items actually real, unique dimensions in a specific context? For instance, Evil is hopefully a rare component of Portrait photography. Ethics are especially important in Journalistic and Documentary work. Starting with these two examples, what dimensions associate with particular contexts? Are the associations relevant to photography? If so, how precisely does a photographer make use of this insight? What other (better) dimensions can you think of?
Very few of us have trouble with three or even four dimensional spaces – horizontal, vertical, depth and perhaps time. Another way to describe the four dimensions is width, length, depth and time. Most sciences claim humans can only really comprehend a three dimensional world with some time elements added in, such as motion. The scientific world has identified more basic spatial dimensions although humans really cannot comprehend or “see” any of them. But spatial dimensions are only part of the picture. We will deal with non-spatial dimensions as well.
Rocket Science – Spatial Dimensions
Spatial Euclidian Spaces
Math defines spaces consisting of any number of unique dimensions based on work by Euclid, about 300 BC. A zero dimensional space consists of an infinitely small point. A one dimensional space is a line.
A generic space includes N dimensions where N is any number, including infinity. An actual Euclidian space is usually characterized by a series of planes, defined by sets of points on which certain operations are allowed. You can tilt the planes, move them around, rotate them and measure their distance and angle relative to some point.
The Euclidian space consists of coordinates, angles and distances. Coordinates define points. Two points define a distance. Angles compare lines, vectors and planes. Think about how to apply what you just read to photography: coordinates and points, distances between points, planes made up by sets of points and angles of planes. Henri Cartier-Bresson once said:
- This recognition, in real life, of a rhythm of surfaces, lines, and values is for me the essence of photography; composition should be a constant of preoccupation, being a simultaneous coalition – an organic coordination of visual elements.
Cartier-Bresson was no mathematician. Yet he applied Euclidian multidimensional theory to his art, perhaps without knowing. In reality, anyone applying composition to photography uses the Euclidian 
principles. Your Euclidian space was initiated 2,300 years ago. After all these years, you are still free to add your personal dimensions.
Euclidian spaces decompose visual composition quite well and have plenty of practical, real life applications in economics, physics, medicine and countless other areas. Yet it is not the only way of looking at dimensions. The weak point of Euclidian dimensions is that they do not define what its dimensions are in a real world. You might assign length, width etc. to some dimensions but, generally, neither Euclid nor modern mathematicians do or care to. Reality is conveniently abstracted away.
Modern scientists have extended the Euclidian spaces in many different directions. The case of up to three dimensions is pretty straight forward. At four dimensions, differences start to occur. Although many regard 
Time as the best addition, others look at it differently. A fourth dimension may consist of a way to connect several three dimensional spaces, Put your slippers in the floor. Go get a rope. Tie up the slippers with the rope. Congratulations, you just entered the world of four dimensions. Untie the slippers and you return to a three dimensional world. The rope is the way to connect the three dimensions with a fourth.
The slipper example certainly is pretty silly. The point isn’t. In the current context, the fourth or Nth dimension can define a way to go from an N-1 space to N or N-2 dimensions. That is quite useful. Let’s go back to our eyes. They record a three dimensional world flattened into the two dimensional space of the retina. The brain then applies a third dimension to give an illusion of three dimensions that we “see”. The brain analyses the two dimensional information for clues to the next dimension: shadows, foreshortening and perspective provide information to the brain how the two dimensions might extend to three.
As always, the brain is easy to fool. Consider this example of a two dimensional picture, below, that completely violates the brain’s rules making it impossible to get to an illusion of three dimensions:
Look at the picture (which is no Picasso) above long enough and you will likely go crazy. Now, juxtaposition in photography refers to including an object that contrasts in some respect with the rest of the scene. Such an object usually is there to challenge the viewer and to add tension. The tension is achieved by breaking the rules of the brain’s attempts to add a dimension to what it sees: for instance, include a flower vase lit from the opposite of the rest of the image. It can also be an object that is out of context: a portrait of Oprah embracing David Letterman or the pictures of Saddam Hussein with small children. The picture above is an over-the-top shopping list of ways to offend the brain and creating tension (or confusion).
So far, dimensions are useful for cleanly defining compositions that generically create harmony and juxtapositions that add tensions. Compositions and juxtapositions aren’t really dimensions since 
they basically are combinations of the planes, angles and lines already present in Euclidian space. The usefulness of this to photography consists of adding formal elements and organization. That is not bad at all. But the story on dimensions is by no means finished yet.
Spatial String theory
Scientists are not satisfied with two, three or four dimensions, however you define them. String theory, also known as Superstring theory, is an attempt to explore areas in Nature and the Universe and create a universal theory covering more known events than is possible by four dimensions. The areas include explaining the interaction and nature of particles, planets, orbits, stars, black holes, electromagnetism, gravity and the Big Bang when the Universe was born. The scientific driving force is quantum mechanics. Our driving force is looking for new insights and becoming better artists. Perhaps a few warped dimensions will do the trick as it did for Picasso.
String theory went through and will continue to go through many evolutions: originally dealing with special particles called hadrons, then pondering the interaction, at zero distance, of particles with zero mass spinning around, leading to explorations of gravity. String theory can predict these natural and cosmic 
behaviors.
Strings are like guitar strings except not attached to anything. The strings may be stretched and set to vibrate, emitting “tones” or, rather, energy. These strings are quite small or in the order of a millionth of a billionth of a billionth of a centimeter. The strings may be closed loops or open ended. They are paired with other particles in super symmetry – if a string emits force (“tones”) then there must be a receptor of this force.
Now that all of that is perfectly clear, none of this has been truly confirmed as existing. Those strings are way too small to be seen. Then there are several string theories to consider. These theories combine with quantum mechanics to add the notion of dimensions. These dimensions are as many as 26 or as few as 10 for “superstrings”. Work is ongoing to reduce the different theories into one single theory called M theory which is known as the Mother of All Theories.
We now have ten dimensions with vibrating strings. One of the dimensions is Time, leaving nine others. Of these nine, you might have a circular dimension. A string particle entering such a dimension starts circling, adding momentum energy to the whole setup. The string can wind itself around the circular dimension. This represents momentum and winding modes. There is a coupling of the string to 
the dimension. There are now zero dimension objects (infinitely small ones), one dimensional (points), two dimensional lines and three dimensional membranes similar to Euclid’s planes.
Here is where we are: we have the three dimensions we are used to. Add the Time dimension for four dimensions, leaving the six other dimensions from string theory. This means that to describe a point, there are the four basic coordinates usually denoted as (x,y,z and t). Add six more coordinates to define a string theory point. These extra six dimensions make it possible to model a lot more events into a common framework. So how do you relate the six extra dimensions back to the four we humans know? One way is to make the extra dimensions real small and the whole system subject to gravitational, electromagnetic and scalar forces. That is, string theory does not just deal with dimensions but also the forces driving the interactions in the system.
This is great – we have a ten dimensional tool that can describe any natural phenomena from the Big Bang to Broccoli. It can tell what goes on in Black Holes and in holes in your socks. It certainly should provide brilliant insights into your photography. Unfortunately, those six extra dimensions are a mystery – no one knows what they are. They are “compacted” to be as small as possible and out of the way. Their only current role is to make forming the equations of a string-based universe possible. One sticking point is that these equations are so complex that only approximations are possible. 
One possible view of the six extra dimensions is that they are associated with Six Dimensional Calabi-Yau Shapes. These shapes or manifolds look like crumbled up paper with curves twisting all over in an incredibly complex pattern. There are no straight lines in this very strange environment. To the right is an artistic rendering of such a six dimensional monster. Unfortunately, there are thousands of possible objects like this, each extremely complex. Which one is the right one? It may take generations to reach a conclusive answer.
Now, if ten dimensions are hard to deal with, how about two hundred forty eight?
Spatial 248 Dimension Lie Structures
Recently, 19 mathematicians each spent four years specifying a Lie group, named E8, which contains 248 dimensions and is based on a 453,060*453,060 matrix of parameters. That is 205,263,363,600 parameters that aren’t even straightforward numbers but complex equations. After toiling collectively for 36 man years, they did manage to define this mysterious thing.
Lie was a Norwegian mathematician living in the mid to late 1800s. The two images to the right are math’s ways to explain some of the relationships.
It takes a supercomputer three days just to make a test run on this massively complex “group” or structure. The 205 billion inputs, thought, are tiny compared to the output. A small font printout demands a paper sized 50 square miles. The Genome Project, as a comparison, uses only 1/60 of the input data of the Lie group. To the right and a little up and down, are two different representations of the E8 Lie group. The top shows the “root” and the bottom one shows the form of the matrix. 
A Lie group captures the essence of symmetry, manifolds and geometrical elements. Applications of these groups include string theory, particle and theoretical physics, structures of complex materials such as crystals and even some aspects of the Internet. The Euclidian N dimensional spaces are Lie groups as are various types of matrices.
So What’s the Deal with Strings and Lies?
At the end of the day – what on earth is this all about? “Am I supposed to apply Lie groups to shooting Grand Ma’s 90th Celebration?” you ask. I would advice not to attempt that – where would you put the 50 square mile printout? There are a few lessons to be learnt from this curious stretch of our road.
The case of the Euclidian spaces should be pretty straightforward. There are direct parallels with composition and other aspects of photography. When you compose a picture, you really are 
working in a three or four dimension Euclidian space with planes, lines and points all related to each other and where you can adjust how these components work in harmony or tension.
The other two parts – String theory and Lie groups – differ from Euclidian spaces: the three/four dimensional spaces we are used to do not represent a complete and generic view of “Reality”. Nature is far more complex than that. That complexity is not well enough understood to directly aid us in photography. These extra dimensions, at least in the case of string theory, are spatial in character and subject to electro magnetic and gravitational forces.
The physical impact of the extra dimensions is probably unlike anything experienced before – if indeed they will ever be experienced. Nothing will be like the square, linear spaces of our ordinary environment. Objects, people and other creatures will twist, fade in and out, drop into deep canyons, hit high mountain tops where no mountains exist, switch from one space to another in a maddening experience. No, I’m not a Sci-Fi fan. Star wars are not for me. Sci-Fi writers are quite aware of the Lie groups and String Theories. I’d be surprised if there isn’t quite a bit enlightening interpretations in the Sci-Fi literature. I wouldn’t know about that.
Think about the images coming out of the Hubble telescope. These images do not penetrate the missing dimensions but do display some of the results of the interactions of such forces and 
dimensions. The bluish image to the right above the portrait is from the Hubble. There is no accident the image is quite similar to the artist rendering of the Six Dimensional Calabi-Yau Shape a bit further up: that’s how I choose it.
The lesson is that reality may well be a lot more exciting than many of us think. Nothing should limit us to think in only the old linear dimensions. Those of us into portrait photography may hesitate about introducing twirling dimensions into the portfolios but that’s ok. A nature photographer may not appreciate his elk subject fading in and out. That’s OK too. Other may continue experimenting with the reality none of us have ever seen. That is very much OK.
Another item for thought is that dimensions do not exist in isolation but are linked to forces or energy. Such force might be a truck hitting you (let’s hope not) or lightning striking your model (let’s hope not). It may also be a strong wind across a landscape or a Tour de France biker heading up the Pyrenees. A time dimension may be strong or weak, long or short, discontinuous or linear or, why not, run backwards. A scene we shoot may be subject to imaginary heavy gravity, flattening everything. A subject’s hair may be suffering from heavy electro magnetic charges. You shoot an ad for McDonalds showing cows sucked into a black hole. Your camera turns on you and shoots only cats from now on. You yourself may fade in and out of nonlinear dimensions on occasion. I know I do.
Madness, you say. Out of question, you exclaim. Blasphemies, you cry. Are you familiar with Igor Stravinsky? Those are quotes from the audience walking out on the premier performance of The Rite of Spring in 1913 Paris. The collective walkout developed int
o a full riot over this shameful, pagan ballet with its animal rhythms and offensive, unfathomable dimensions. Stravinsky is now viewed as one of the most influential composers of the 1900s. The Rite of Spring is one of his major early masterpieces. The portrait to the right is Pablo Picasso’s quite straight view of Igor Stravinsky.
Pablo Picasso was of the same generation as Igor Stravinsky. They knew each other well. Picasso’s images violate every perspective and linear space known to man, yet absolutely everything was there for a clear artistic reason and vision. Igor Stravinsky violated the rules of composition in an era when romanticism still ruled the kingdoms and the high seas of the Empires.
Only a dozen years before The Rite, Queen Victoria was still on the British throne. I doubt any of them (Victoria included with Igor and Pablo) thought about missing dimensions, non linear or not. But their work can be interpreted in that light (except Victoria – she has left the room). The key point here is the courage it took from both artists to break down walls and, most definitely, think beyond the ordinary paint and score boxes. That is a heritage worth carrying on. It was the beginning of the end of the British Empire, eventually leading to bra burning, nuclear bombs, G8, Britney Spears and the Beatles.
As they say, let’s add a new dimension to the discussion. Math geniuses and physics lions do not have a monopoly on this dimension stuff. For now, let’s return to the world of humans and maybe more familiar realms. That will be the day, you murmured.
Non-Spatial Human Dimensions
No, I don’t care about your waist line. I mean dimensional analysis as applied to and by humans. Psychologists apply dimensional analysis to see if you’re mad or not. If mad, they apply more dimensions to see if you are suicidal, should be locked up or are unable to pay the bill. Art critics love to apply newly invented dimensions to artwork whether or not anyone else has a clue what they talk about. Some churches 
force values on their members to ensure proper spiritual dimensions. The Internet provides thousands of “dimensional” personality tests followed by an opportunity to join their communities of eternally young, merry, well adjusted and extremely compatible lovebirds at a minor fee. Politicians and their spin doctors like to control every dimension possible and usually deep six them far out of sight. Witness Bush with his brave war
against the “Terror” dimension and his Global Warming Denial dimension.
Many of the ideas about human dimensions come from work done in psychology. Human characteristics are mapped into categories to aid the psychologist in determining a treatment, if needed. There are countless tests available to that end. Here are a few:
- MMPI uses “scores” such as Validity (is individual providing valid data?), Clinical (attempts to id illnesses), Content (Anxiety, Depression, Fear, Cynicism, Work Interference, Negativity and others), Supplemental (Chemical Dependency, Maladjustment, Demoralization, Martial Distress and Social Dominance) and PSY- 5 (Similar to NEO PI).
- NEO-PI measures “facets” such as Agreeableness, Extraversion, Conscientiousness, Neuroticism and Openness to Experience.
- Raymond Cattell’s Personality Factors include: Warmth, Reasoning, Emotional Stability, Dominance, Liveliness, Rule-Consciousness, Social Boldness, Sensitivity, Vigilance, Abstractedness, Privateness, Apprehension and Openness to Change, Self-Reliance, Perfectionism and Tension.
- MBTI identifies personal preferences and dichotomies such as Extraversion/introversion, sensing/ intuition, thinking/feeling and judging/perceiving. This test is generally criticized for validity and reliability. It (or a copy) is used by several Internet dating services.
- PAI applies scales in the general categories of Clinical (Neurotic, Psychotic, Personality Disorders and Behavioral Disorders), Interpersonal, Treatment and Validity.
- The Keirsey Temperament Sorter uses four scales: Expressive vs. Attentive; Observant vs. Introspective; Tough-Minded vs. Friendly and Scheduling vs. Probing.
These “scores, facets, factors or scales” represent abstract groupings of personality features for an individual or a group. They are often referred to as dimensions. Each dimension is made up of a series of properties or features – usually a set of answers to test questions. These ideas can apply to art, photography and you as an artist.
Dimensions of an Artist
Take Picasso as an example. He, like all of us, saw a three (or four) dimensional, traditional world. Yet much of his work bears little resemblance with that world. He added something. No one really knows what went on in his head, but it seems “Perspective” must have been one important factor – after all, he 
was a founder of the Cubist school which reduced Perspective to almost nothing. As with all visual art, Light is a given – in his case it was even elevated to a “Blue” and a “Rose” period, colors being part of Light. Other features might include “Distortion” and “Focus”.
Picasso’s work had at least seven dimensions: the standard three spatial ones, Light, Perspective, Distortion and Focus. The last four dimensions contain many properties. Focus, for instance, might include cubist features: abstractions of shapes such as cylinders, spheres and cones. The Light dimension would include Monochrome since much of the cubist work is monochrome or close thereto. Picasso’s politics generally made for a dangerous life in particular in the 1930s through 1950s but also defined his art. Here is a simple map of Picasso, the Cubist Artist:
|
3 Basic Dimensions |
Light |
Perspective |
Distortion |
Focus |
Politics |
|
Width |
(Blue) |
Flat |
Abstraction |
Decomposition |
Pacifist |
|
Height |
(Rose) |
Edges |
Symbols |
Shapes |
Communist |
|
Depth (lack of) |
Mono |
Planes |
Austerity |
Partial, stripped views |
Anti Fascist |
This is much easier to visualize than Strings, Liens and Calabi-Yau Shapes – we have hundreds of samples in the form of his paintings. The table shows, however, only one specific dimensional view of one artist in one early part of his life, painting in one particular style. Later developments rapidly outdated this view. It was replaced by new dimensions and features, such as classicism rather than 
cubism. Some individual works are so overwhelmingly important that they require their own set of dimensions. Picasso’s Guernica (above) painting is an excellent example. It defines antiwar in art.
The typical visual art artist lives with the three basic dimensions and a few technical dimensions, such as Light and Time, plus a set of personal dimensions. This section will concentrate on the personal part – the basic dimensions are covered previously and the more specific technical dimensions are too dependent on the photo style to cover here.
It is not easy to come up with valid, personal dimensions. Most of us do not have a good view of the fundamental drivers of our lives – we are too close and too biased. That’s why the personality tests exist. But personality tests are not designed for artists; they aim at uncovering illnesses, not artistic features.
Analyzing the Artist
It just happens I have a proprietary process and tool aimed at analyzing personal aspects of artistry. Originally developed in house as a web site and search engine analyzer, I adapted it to more general tasks. This tool supports formally detecting and objectively developing the dimensions of an artist and his/her work. 
This can, of course, be done intuitively as it has since the dawn of humanity. But who knows how many more masterpieces we might have if the visions had been more focused and more objective?
The example in this section uses a hypothetical artist as a basis. We’ll come up with dimensions and specifics for this fictitious person. In a real life situation, all aspects of the analysis are customized to the real, actual individual. The process is quite labor intensive and requires a sizable investment. Here, I’ll cover only some basics – perhaps I’ll devote a future post to more detail.
The basic assumption sets the sample artist up as a pretty complex and cocky individual who is a bit vain although down on his luck – perhaps due to some mental issues. He is searching high and low for some commercial success. He is not the best of persons or the worst. He has some secrets but is no terrorist, war criminal, jay walker or addict.
The process consists of three basic steps and a lot of iteration with involvement both of the examiner and the artist. The steps are 1) create and verify a word list (concepts) relevant to art, the world and people in general, 2) categorize the word list, add a first go at dimensions, verify, iterate and 3) add value components, refine concepts, categories and dimensions, iterate and produce final report.
The first step list contains concepts or phrases specific to the subject. The word/concept list is quite exhaustive – about 1,500 entries or up. The concept list is based on three criteria: first, add personality items similar to, but less generic than, those used in psychology tests. Second, add concepts specific to art. Third, add features specific to the artist and his/her real life orientation. Most of the list is simply made up by adjectives as descriptors of for such features.
Once we have an initial list, each concept entry is moved into categories. In our example, the two categories are “Bad/Good/Neutral” and having “Major/Minor/Little” impact on the artist’s art work. This process is iterative and goes through several cycles as does the whole process. Luckily the process is computerized with a wide range of tools. Rarely do initial classifications or concepts make it through the whole process of continuous improvement.
A first go at dimensions follows having secured a reasonable set of concepts and classifications. These dimensions are tested logically against the classifications and the individual. Several more rounds of iterations, supported by the tools, follow. Usually the dimensions change substantially from the first go. In the example to come, the dimensions boiled down to “Brainy”, “Private”, “Public” and “Secret” after perhaps ten iterations. As it turned out, our hypothetical artist is apparently quite concerned with his image and not very modest about his intelligence. 
Eventually, a set of dimensions, classifications and concepts appear to fit the artist reasonably well. But this still is just a collection of concepts split this way and that way. A very fundamental part is missing. We need to be able to assign values to all aspects of the collection. Once we have values assigned to each feature down to the individual, original concepts, we know what truly is important and how one feature becomes more important than another. This is where the real insights come.
The values used in the example are based on proprietary Internet concept analysis: we measure the perception of each concept and, then, the competitive rank of the concept. The actual values chosen depend on the goal of the analysis. Anything that is collectible at a reasonable cost can be used. The values used in the example are good ones for determining an artistic web presence with a potential for commercial success. Other data sources include vocabulary statistics. Here is an example of a vocabulary scale:
This post contains some 38,000 words (I know – it’s a challenge). This mass of words certainly might provide a base for an artist concept list and also the value component – a simple frequency count might do. One simple way that does not include the mysteries of the Internet is to choose a text well regarded on 
the subject (such as portraiture or journalism) and run it through the list creation and evaluation process.
As an additional example, an initial cut of 25,000 words of this post were extracted into the database and then culled down to 15,000 by getting rid of words with no stand-alone meaning – the “the”, “a”, “of” and “I’m” type of things. The 15,000 should be reduced to less than 2,000 to be manageable in the next steps. The analytical part of this process is fully supported by software. Still, each step requires extensive human involvement – this is not a black box, download from the Internet as a wonder-in-the-box solution but a process based on human judgment.
The resulting list, shown in the graph above, is quite typical. Since this post has a well defined purpose and orientation, the most “valuable” concepts are well defined and not unexpected. The top ones are Light, Dimension, Image and Color – certainly important subject of this post. Also typical is the steep shape of the list – there are usually some 4-7 concepts that tower above all others. This simple example was aimed at giving you a bit of hints about the real thing. We’ll leave it behind and move on to the main course.
Stepping Through the Process
The first stage concept list is inspired by the psychological tests and their scales, factors and facets. That initial list then is expanded by adding more “psychology” concepts. Next follows a set of generic art related concepts, last comes the set of artist specific items. Overall, concepts should cover segments such as Art, 
Morals, Ethics, Spirituality, Emotions, Physical and Mental well being and perhaps Philosophy. It is not hard to come by well focused vocabularies. Suitable text can be OCR’ d or downloaded. Thesauruses and dictionaries are helpful.
Some concepts are specific to the artist’s actual specialty. Most are not. Don’t be too specific by including a lot of technical items – this is not a tool to determine how many minutes to use when developing your film. Too much specificity tends to add many biases – we aim at finding new dimensions, not validating old impressions. It’s important that this list provides a random sample within each category and remains free initial biases.
Concepts are added and thrown away during the iterations to identify classifications and dimensions. The process typically involves a universe of 2,000 to 3,000 conceptual phrases, ending up with about 1,000 to 1,500 final concepts. Our example list contains 1,381 concepts. The next two graphs show some of the dimensions and categories of the set.
The Goodness Scale splits the concepts into three categories: Good, or positive, as the concept relates to the impact on the artist and his work, Bad, or negative, or finally Neutral – neither good nor bad. Overall, 15% of the concepts are negative/bad, reflecting many human fallacies. 11% of the concepts are neither good nor bad in this context but Neutral; they are allocated to the Private dimension which also contains 21% Good concepts. We tend to make our negative/bad streaks secret, even from ourselves. We make sure that the environment sees only our best Public features. We tend to keep quite a few Good features – and certainly the wishy-washy Neutral stuff – Private to ourselves. 74% of the concepts are ranked Good or positive. In the example, 43% are Good, split equally to the Public and Private dimensions. The remaining 31% are labeled Brainy and reflects the positive, but not Public sides of our minds.
We all have a closet of skeletons that we keep secret, often even from ourselves. Next, we posses features with which we promote ourselves publicly. Third, our pride of being intellectually superior, well educated and knowledgeable makes up out Brainy dimension that may or may not be public. Most of us avoid bragging or appearing superior or elitist. Then, there is the middle ground – good or neutral features we keep to ourselves. Our “Earnings” is a good example – there is usually nothing negative about making money but we rarely make the details of this feature public – so it remains in the Private dimension.
This graph slices the dimensions by the Impact scale. This scale splits the concepts into three categories: High impact on the artist’s art, or lesser impact – Some or Little. In this example, only 11% of the 1,381 concepts ended up viewed as highly influential on the artist’s work. Of that 11%, a third had highly negative effects. Only 8% of the features ended up as high impact positives with 5% being Public or Brainy.
The original sample is now culled down to 5% of the original size. It now supports a high impact, public, positive set of dimensions and features – 95% of the concepts turned out to be of little value to this particular artist. That is a great result – the process provided very specific and focused results, 
discarding a lot of maybes. So far, though, all we have are some broad dimensions and categories. We need to get a lot more specific. The next graphs drill down to some of these specifics.
Arriving at the Final View
We now have a reasonable set of features and classifications with some agreement on the dimensions. It is time to introduce the value components. We’ll use Internet hit/buy scales. This leads to yet another round of iterations until we have a believable set of conclusions – dimensions, specific features and categories. This stage slices and dices the data, looking for logical and factual relationships. In the end, the whole thing simply has to make sense. It does not have to confirm biases or reiterate previous opinions. The strength of this process is its ability to bring new ideas to the table.
Here are the views we’ll run through: The Public Image that’s very important to most of us – it is so important we’ll look at several cuts. The bad stuff follows. We store this in our Secret compartment. Yet another view lists some real obscure features on which to waste no time – no one cares. The next view shows the opposite – what is important and provides real opportunities in presenting a strong image as a full artist. The final two views filter out features deemed not valid by this rather head strong artist.
Above are the features we believe leave a good impression on others – be it coworkers, bosses, landlords, curators or gallery owners. Most of these features are rather traditional or even conservative. The wild side is absent and so are the dark features. Top features include being Responsible, showing Excellence, being Involved, Inspirational and a good Listener. Being Alive helps a lot. Being Heavenly and Fabulous apparently is helpful as well to our fictitious vain artist.
This graph is similar to the one above it. Both show features that may or may not be seen by others. The difference is that this graph includes the Brainy dimension in addition to the Public one. The distinction between the Brainy vs. Public is that the Brainy dimension points at internal features while the Public is geared to external issues. The Brainy features aren’t promoted by us in front of others as much as the Public ones. Brainy features aren’t really hidden – the environment will pick up on whether you are smart or plain stupid regardless of whether or not you promote one or the other.
Based on the value system employed and the fact we deal with an artist, the top features change quite a bit. Brainy features rank high, followed by Creativity, Originality and Abstractions. Being Smart, Goal Oriented (Specific and Effective) and an Expert are important features.
‘No one is perfect’ as the Billionaire in “Some Like It Hot” remarked when finding out that the love of his life – Jack Lemmon – was a man, not a gorgeous female base player. Above you see the horrid calamities of the Secret Closet. We hope our poor artist is not beset with all of them, at least not at once. Being Destroyed, Desperate, Wild, Dangerous, Crazy and Violent won’t help our image much, whether true or false. These features may or may not be displayed in the artist’s work. Demonstrating Superiority (Ubermensch) and appearing close to a Breakdown are items perhaps best kept limited to discussions with a psychiatric.
This slice of the data lists generally useless, bottom-of-the-barrel concepts. Its only value is in providing logic to totally ignore such features. Even if they may be important to some, the general public could not care less. Be Mopey, Prudish, Heartsick, Scraggy or even Jinxed if you like. No one will pay attention and neither should our artist. As you notice, this process does not only surface what to do but also what to ignore.
Here we allow the system to map features without regard to limits or categories. What you see is an overview of the most important features associated with our illustrious artist. Most of the top features are unchanged which is good – the top level focus remains unchanged. Lower down there are some fairly notable changes: the Private dimensions become more prominent.
Now our hypothetical artist has a set of personal dimensions and associated features. These should be used in three ways – first, by ensuring a pursuit of public efforts that are consistent and positive in nature. Second, the same features should be coordinated with the more internal artistic visions. Third, the process hopefully has provided some focus and some original thinking that just might have an impact on the art work itself.
Here is a quick take on an Artist Statement for our illustrative Artist. “As a responsible and alert Artist, I actively pursue creative, effective and original routes to enhance my classical abstractions of good, funny, happy yet specific essentials in interactive biochemistry”. Ah well, maybe that statement could use some wordsmith – I’ll leave that to the dear Artist. However, those words find 5.6 billion references on the Google network. That could be a useful starting point for our unknown, broke Artist apparently specializing in some form of humorous biochemistry abstractions. The comparable hit count for “humorous biochemistry abstractions” is 58,000,000 or 1% of the count mentioned above. That is something for our Artist to ponder. Broaden Thyself.
Going back many thousands of words in this post, I wrote: “Creativity is about you being creative. Creativity is your mental process of discovering new ideas or concepts, or finding new associations between existing ideas or concepts. Creativity derives from divine intervention, cognitive processes, spirituality, social environments, your personality traits and chance. It associates with your genius, mental illness and humor. So goes one definition.” The process described in this section is simply one attribute of the whole notion of artistry. It maps to a way of self discovery and moving ahead artistically. It’s yet another part of the magical toolbox.
But wait, the story isn’t over. The hypothetical artist comes storming into the office of the examiner, waving his copy of the report and yelling that he is neither Smart nor Original and wants nothing to do with either. The examiner sighs and mentally calculates the outstanding billings. He agrees to make a special run if the balance is settled and the original report is accepted as is. The Artist agrees, mumbling obscenities under his breath.
The individualized (biased) run is shown in the graph above and it paints quite a different picture. At the beginning of this sample application, I said: “The basic assumption sets the sample artist up as a pretty complex and cocky individual who is a bit vain although down on his luck – perhaps due to some mental issues. He is searching high and low for some commercial success. He is not the best of persons or the worst”. Doing the run on the artist’s biases and conditions pretty much confirmed those points: vanity, complexity, down on his luck and a bit mentally unstable while being obsessed with the public image – all confirmed and easily seen by comparing the graph above with the optimal, original one a step further up. This graph amplifies the point:
The upper right hand curve in the graph illustrates what the artist wanted “in” while the lower left hand curve shows what he wanted “out”. The rejected features are mostly quite conventional while those going in are not. The artist surely did not expect Desperate, Wild and Dangerous would end up top features. He was mesmerized by Cool and Hip, no doubt.
So which is the valid run? Both are. They are just based on different assumptions. The artist version practices status quo and surfaces quite a few biases. The original report suggested some change from status quo and is far less biased. However, we’ll leave it to our fathom artist to sort this out – after all he is the one to gain or lose. We, on the other hand, must move on. Fun as all this is, it can’t go on for ever.
Dimensions and Art
This section started out by claming photography and any “flat” visual art is not two dimensional as a thoughtless view might assume. Such a limitation ignores and misses almost everything that is the mysterious magic of photography. 
The exploration of dimensions set sail onto a strange and stormy ocean. Things got a bit shaky here and there. Dimensions suddenly popped into two major versions: the Math/Physics approach and the Human/Psychology inspired analysis. These two approaches seem vastly different yet they are complementary.
The most obvious pattern is one of incredible complexity. Physicists work with around 10 dimensions and are completely at a loss to explain what those extra dimensions are. Yet other scientists reach for 248 dimensions where supercomputers have trouble just running some equations involved. Mathematicians easily jump into any number of dimensions but remain high up in the clouds since they completely ignore real life details.
Clearly, dimensions exist beyond the three or four generally viewed as graspable by humans. There is evidence that if we human would actually be able to experience such extra dimensions, the event would be far beyond any prior experience. Our safe linear world would turn completely nonlinear.
Yet, art also provides experiences beyond anything previously known. I used Picasso and Stravinsky as examples how a familiar reality gets stretched beyond belief simply with a paint brush and a pen. Adding new spatial dimensions, or distorting the common ones, is very possible and done all the time. To me, that notion belongs in every photographer’s toolbox. Even sticking with the basic spatial dimensions, it is easy to apply Euclidian spaces t
o composition and design in any photographic environment. In fact, photographers do that everyday, mostly unconsciously.
Then there is the matter of another class of dimensions derived from psychology. Primarily focused on self discovery and self knowledge, the aim here is to reach a higher artistic level. These dimensions do not deal with bent light rays, crooked perspectives or black holes. If anything, they straighten out biases and drop erroneous ideas about us. I ran through a pretty detailed example how dimensional analysis might be helpful to any artist, if sufficiently open minded.
Dimensional analysis is part of all art forms and actually life itself. It is simply there, whether you like it or not. Photography does not have a unique ownership of the concept by any means. But photographers will benefit from this addition to the magic toolbox. Thinking outside that three dimensional, square, linear box is always the right thing to do.
The Magical, Mysterious Toolbox
At last we are at the end of this long and winding road. The road originated some 38,000 words ago. The first part, optimistically labeled “Understand the Magic”, discussed artistic visions and the higher level aspects of making that vision real. Jeff Wall provided a great example of visions and execution on steroids, but other photographer
s had their say as well. Henri Cartier-Bresson was mentioned more than anyone else.
The second, current, part of the post is labeled “The Mysterious Toolbox”, aka The Magical Toolbox. This is not the toolbox in your garage containing a broken electrical drill and 147 odds and ends, including a spare set of false teeth of dubious origin. This toolbox makes more highflying promises designed to make you a better artist. The approach may not be very conventional but is actually based on solid research.
The toolbox section contains two parts. The first part dealt with light and its distortions. Any artist can benefit from them. That’s better than to suffer from the illusion the fallacies of “reality” do not exist. This part dived rather far down into light, color, cameras and our human visual system with quite a bit of specific advice. The second part made a brave jump into the world of math and physics including quantum mechanics, followed by some analytical work based on psychology research. Go just half a page up for details.
In one of first paragraphs of this the mother of all posts, I stated successful photography means “the images present a multi faceted, relevant and unique experience that reflects the artist’s creative vision and flawless execution“. I hope I have clarified what I meant and that I provided some ideas about how to create art to that effect.
That concludes this post, except for a few wrap-ups below. I appreciate all of you that actually spent the times to reach this point.
Thank you, Karl
Final Words from the Wise
- So what is art? Simply stated, and in perspective to photography, art is a visual form of expression that brings constructive social value to the masses. It is endearing to those who view it, and it enriches humanity in general. Visual expression that is used to personally attack and ridicule a specific group, belief system, or culture, or to promote a political agenda, is not art. -Robert Devere
- The ingredients that go into the creation of outstanding images are subject emphasis, the eradication of time, and universal themes. That is, a readily identified subject in a timeless setting that is universally recognized everywhere. Such an image is not only the hallmark of a truly remarkable photograph; it is achieved by very few photographers. -Robert Devere
- The magic of photography is metaphysical. What you see in the photograph isn’t what you saw at the time. The real skill of photography is organized visual lying. -Terence Donovan
- Making pictures is a very simple act. There is no great secret in photography schools are a bunch of crap. You just need practice and application of what you’ve learned. My absolute conviction is that if you are working reasonably well the only important thing is to keep shooting…it doesn’t matter whether you are making money or not. Keep working, because as you go through the process of working things begin to happen. -Elliott Erwitt
- The meaning of quality in photography’s best pictures lies written in the language of vision. That language is learned by chance, not system; …our overwhelming formal education deals in words, mathematical figures and methods of rational thought, not in images. -Walker Evans
- The first impression of a new subject is not necessary the best. Seen from a different angle or under different condition it might look even better. Always study a three – dimensional subject with one eye closed. -Andreas Feininger
- The camera can push the new medium to its limits – and beyond. It is there – in the “beyond” – that the imaginative photographer will compete with the imaginative painter. Painting must return to the natural world from time to time for renewal of the artistic vision. The key sector of renewal of vision today is the new vistas revealed by science. Here photography, which is not only art but science also, stands on the firmest ground. -Andreas Feininger
- I have been frequently accused of deliberately twisting subject-matter to my point of view. Above all, I know that life for a photographer cannot be a matter of indifference. Opinion often consists of a kind of criticism. But criticism can come out of love. It is important to see what is invisible to others – perhaps the look of hope or the look of sadness. Also, it is always the instantaneous reaction to oneself that produces a photograph. My photographs are not planned or composed in advance, and I do not anticipate that the onlooker will share my viewpoint. However, I feel that if my photograph leaves an image on his mind, something has been accomplished. -Robert Frank
- A photograph has always been a lie. We can not freeze time, we are not two dimensional, we are not the size of an 8 x 10 glossy, we are not composed in geometric patterns, but we are real. Photos have power because of this illusion. Using the power and exploring it as communication of the collective sub-conscience can be fun to. -Misha Gordin,
Previous and Next
Here are more posts from this blog that deal with photography. The posts are newer as you go down in the list:
- About Photo Documentaries
- Susan Sontag wrote in “From On Photography”
- On Reality – Part 1 – Elements of Light
- About Stanley Kubrick, the Photographer
- On Reality – Part 2 – Photo Journalism
- On Reality – Part 3 – More on Photojournalism
- On Reality – Part 3a – Those faked, staged famous photographs in Part 3?
- On Reality – Part 3a(Update) – Famous Faked Photos and How to Make Them
- On Gordon Parks – Segregation, Hollywood, Fashion and more….
- Can Celebrities shoot?
- On Reality – Part 4 – Remembering Joe Rosenthal. On War and Photography
- On Reality – Part 5 – How Perceptions and Illusions destroy Reality
- On Ethics – Part 1 – Just a point of view?
Global Warming and G8 – Real or Not?
June 12, 2007
The G8 meeting is over after three days of intense exchanges sometimes lasting several hours per day. Leaders arrived, gathering for mandatory photo ops. Putin did the charm thing, a remarkable feat. Merkel vigorously looked for some – any – item to agree on. She pronounced the meeting a step forward towards making far reaching decisions. The rest of the gang barely stayed awake. Everyone was relieved Chirac is finally gone while allegedly Sarkozy had a drop too much to drink now and then. Flustered by farewell praise, Blair choked and stammered a bit.
Bush’s tummy suffered from evil European cooking and apparently from meeting Nicolas Sarkozy (drunk or not). Even so, Bush strongly and resolutely agreed only to not agree with any agreement containing any form of specificity such as numbers, dates or $ signs. Leaders agreed, announced strong and resolute agreements to agree at a later date. Mission accomplished, everyone left.
Success World Leader Style
Leaders claimed things were “encouraging, promising, getting critical directions in place, realizing breakthroughs, considering serious matters, 
sending important signals, providing opportunity to prepare, putting processes in motion, identifying meaningful possibilities, promising long-term cooperation, directing possible flows” and so on and on.
Nowhere to be found is a single commitment, actual plan or mandatory actions. No treatises were signed. No bindings, incentives or accountability measures saw the light of day. Not a single concrete action was initiated or agreed on.
Bush’s standard recipe of doing nothing on anything and everything apparently now is a global policy. Perhaps it always was that way. Talk the talk, strut the strut, sneer a lot. Then execute the opposite of any public promise. Claim progress is made by going backwards. Aim for the Dark Ages. Make evidence fit the bill. Ignore reality. You’re either with me against me. I’m the Decider and Commander. You are not.
On the third day, 18,000 German police dismantled the 2.5 meter high barbed wire fence raised around the entire town. This mini Berlin Wall protected the 8 (eight) leaders debating bliss, democratic progress, on whom to aim nuclear missiles and the dinner menu. Demonstrators had no access 
to the summit or dinner menus and returned to their day jobs. They as well claimed progress towards agreements on objectives to be established at a future date.
Bush to Fight the War on Global Warming
Dubya pretty much gained approval on his newly found religion on Global Warming. It has a simple, resolute message – “let’s ‘talk’ and meet again when I leave office – meanwhile let me handle the delays.” He thereby claimed the position of Master of Global Delay. Grateful leaders concurred, realizing they had the best man for this very important position. The dramatic announcement declared G8 leaders agreed to reach an agreement at an unspecified future date.
China, India, Mexico, South Africa and Brazil – present one day only – were invited to contribute as much to Global Warming emission control as the 
industrial nations and to give up a few hundred billion $ of Carbon Credit money. Surprisingly, the five suddenly undeveloped countries turned down this generous idea.
China and India now have more years to build a few thousand more cheap coal based power plants based on the dirtiest technology available. Indonesia, Brazil and Malaysia can slash and burn the rest of their rain forests. Mexico City will keep burying its smog victims. Buy a Greenland time share or enjoy spring break at the Alaskan beaches. Enjoy the splendid new Prudhoe Bay Disneyland.
The circular Global Warming blame game continued – Canada blames the US, the US blames China, China blames India and India completes the circle by blaming everyone except India. Progress etc., etc. was happily announced by leaders exhausted by the three hour “working” lunch.
Everyone to Fight the African War on AIDS
African leaders and Bono – not present – scoffed at the rhetoric of saving their Continent from AIDS, malaria, tuberculosis and McDonalds. Apparently the G8 goal of doubling aid to Africa will be 
achieved by cutting such aid in half if history is to guide us. Major bankers strongly endorsed this sound strategy.
G8 also stated a goal of eliminating African debt. Perhaps that will be financed by doubling African dept. Major bankers strongly endorsed this sound strategy. Africans called the summit a farce which somehow explains why Chancellor Merkel was obliged to apologize to Bono for not getting back to him in a timely manner.
President Sarkozy announced a Darfur conference aimed at resolving the stalled efforts of getting peace keeping forces and aid into the area. G8 leaders hailed the idea and strongly supported the notion of France and African leaders take on this delicate task. “Exactly what those guys should do” was the consensus, allowing attention to concentrate on other worthy causes. Sudan, however, was not pleased and turned down the idea.
The Economies in Great Shape
The good news is that the World Economy is in glorious shape which is probably why AIDS aid is cut in half. Global imbalances are showing some signs of stabilization more recently. That explains why things are going so well in Darfur.
The IMF chief warned of complacency, merger mania, the unfair Chinese and their murderous exchange rate, and everything that can’t be
sustained long term. Of course, he did not have the environment in mind but rather the wealthy few. If we are all vigilant, things will be OK. It was deemed necessary to further identify and target specific areas for concrete actions, No doubt the identification of such actions would require additional areas to be identified for further concrete actions. Major bankers strongly endorsed this sound strategy.
Putin and Bush to Hold Intimate Discussions
Iraq, Iran, Korea politely weren’t really on the agenda. Surges were not mentioned. Issues of war crimes were way off the agenda. Secret prisons were unmentioned. No one was tortured. The feared return to the Cold War due to Bush’s brilliant policy towards Russia and Putin’s equally masterful attitude towards the West was temporarily shelved. Bush called Putin Vladimir (“I call him Vladimir, you know”) and invited the poor soul to Kennebunkport where George H. and Vladimir can swap stories on the good old times in CIA and KGB. Children need not attend.
Now Russia would like to host Bush’s missiles allegedly to be pointed at Iran, not Russia. Putin prefers having them in Azerbaijan rather than in Poland and the Czech Republic. Bush, flustered, found the idea interesting while everyone else laughed their heads off. Generals immediately objected, concerned about not being able to aim the damn missiles at anyone they damn well please.
Bush in the Democratic Stronghold of Albania
Bush went on to visit the last earthly place still supporting him – Albania, long the most Communist of all Communist states. The size of Maryland and largely Muslim, it was or is a center of terrorism, directly involving bin Laden together with the CIA. Chetnya, Taliban and Iran apparently use the facilities as well. 
Allegedly converted to democracy, it is now With Us, Not against Us.
Engaged in the tourism, pyramid scheme and rioting businesses, Albania now Fight Terrorism to Bush’s delight. The Albanian Prime Minister commissioned a commemorate stamp with Bush’s face on it. Bush reciprocated by repeating an old promise of membership in NATO. Crowds cheered. As far as is known, Bush left with his face still in place but without his watch (furiously denied by the US Embassy to Albania, fearing a Grave International Episode). Someone check eBay.
Back to Business
But G8 and Albania isn’t today’s subject. It is actually hard to imagine why G8 should be the subject of anything at all since it appears to have no real subject of its own.
Instead I’ll like to update a little story I ran about four months ago which did and still does have a real subject. The original post was just another little story about the not earth shattering effects of Global Warming. That is, not earth shattering to those not affected but very real to those who gather on a lonely Bolivian mountain top or in the valleys below. The top is called Chacaltaya after its once mighty glacier. The glacier happens to host Bolivia’s one and only ski resort. I never thought I’d ever have an update on the story but I was wrong. Here is the original story:
Is Global Warming Real? The Mountain Top Chorale
Scientists say equatorial Bolivia’s proud skiing tradition could be extinguished when Chacaltaya’s ski run disappears forever over a few years. Glaciers are receding rapidly throughout the Andes, but Chacaltaya’s melting has been especially quick. More than 80 percent of the glacier has been lost in 20 years.
Bolivia’s die-hard skiers still boast about Chacaltaya, asking where else one can ski above the clouds at a dizzying 17,388 feet with a view of Lake Titicaca on the horizon. Where 
else, they ask, would the après-ski tradition include coca tea and soup made from the grain of the quinoa plant? Their pride in the ski resort here, the only one in Bolivia and the highest in the World, soon gives way to a grim acceptance that the glacier that once surrounded the lodge with copious amounts of snow and ice is melting fast.
Chacaltaya never had the glamor of a Vail, Kitzbühel or Zermatt. Founded in the late 1930s by a dreamer named Raúl Posnansky Lipmann, it can be reached only by a dirt road winding through the chaotic markets of El Alto, a sprawling city of slums above La Paz, and with terrifying switchbacks lacking guardrails. The lift, which stopped working some time ago, was powered by an old automobile engine which hauled skiers upwards at speeds exceeding any reasonable limits. Now, a few skiers trek 30 minutes to the only remaining ski slope to get a few runs in before Chacaltaya surrenders its claim to being the world’s highest ski area.
“This is a tragedy I can hardly bear to witness,” said Franz Gutiérrez, 65, who has been a member of the Bolivian Andean Club and Chacaltaya since he was a teenager. “There’s no place I’d rather be,” Mr. Martínez, 22, said, squinting as the sun beat down on the lonely slope. “At least Chacaltaya is ours.” Chacaltaya will be theirs forever but not as the world’s highest ski resort. That honor will be lost to Himalayan upstarts.
This story circulated with little fanfare in February of 2007. Next is a June 2007 update which takes somewhat broader approach with a surprising twist as well.
Chacaltaya – the Next Installment
Global warming will melt most Andean glaciers over the next few years. Bolivia’s Hydraulic and Hydrology Institute said the vast Chacaltaya glacier
is particularity melting fast. The glacier, at the Argentina-Chile border, snakes through Bolivia, Peru and Ecuador providing thousands of communities
with their only 
source of water and power. No viable alternatives exist.
Half of Bolivia’s glaciers (80,000 hectares, or 20,000 acres) disappeared over the past 50 years. Chacaltaya is now only 3 metres thick on average, down from 15 metres in 1998. Glaciologist Edson Ramirez says it will disappear this year or next. “This is a process that unfortunately is now irreversible,” he says. About 80 percent of the Andean glaciers are similar in size to Chacaltaya. Experts agree all Andean glaciers are doomed.
Over 2 million people in the La Paz region depend on the thawing cycles of Chacaltaya and neighboring glaciers for drinking water, farming and power generation. At least 35 percent of the area’s drinking water comes from melting glaciers, and about 40 percent of the electricity,” said Oscar Paz, the head of the Bolivian Climate Change Panel, a government task force. Paz said rich countries should create a global fund to compensate poor nations for the effects of global warming. “We’re the victims of climate change,” Paz said.
Daniel Cuencas, a father of four, walks several blocks every day to fetch water from a stream and is well aware of what will happen when the glaciers disappear. “This right here is ice melt. That is where the drinking water comes from, from the mountains. So we know that there isn’t going to be enough water,” he said, fetching water with a rusty tin can from the stream.
In a curious new development, Bolivian President Morales arranged a soccer (football) game at Chacaltaya – 5,270 meters or 17,300 feet up in near stratosphere. Morales scored four goals in
the 30-minute game played before reporters, scientists and a few dazzled tourists on a small gravel field. Morales and his team of presidential staffers and retired Bolivian soccer greats defeated a squad of university students 10-3, in a match halted occasionally when a ball kicked out of bounds would roll down the steep mountainside.
Football is close to a life and death issue in Bolivia as in most Latin American countries. The problem is that even without Chacaltaya, Bolivia and neighbors are in the middle of the high altitude Andes. The international football organization FIFA recently declared that international football games cannot be played at a higher altitude than 2,500 meters (8,200 feet) to protect the health of lowland players.
Such a limit rules out international games in La Paz (3,600 meters up) and at least four other Bolivian stadiums. The same fate awaits the capitals and cities of Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, Chile and Mexico. Understandably all high altitude inhabitants are rather upset about the matter. Denver, incidentally is safe at a mere 5,280 feet. Lowland Brazilian club Flamengo announced that the decision was “a victory for mankind”.
It is unlikely, though, that international football games at Chacaltaya will save its day. At more than twice the limit as it stands, football games will likely be rare in spite of Mr. Morales point:
- “Here we play in ‘altura,’ and we play with much ‘altura,'” he said, using a Spanish word that can mean “altitude” or “dignity.” “Those who fear ‘altura’ have no ‘altura.’
This might tell you something about Chacaltaya and why this obscure place actually is important to all o
f us. It is not just an issue of a handful of skiers, melting glaciers, the supply of drinking water and power to a few million people. It is a matter of dignity and pride. Our dignity and our pride are at risk. Not to mention our health
Is Global Warming real? To some it certainly is very real. Not in 5, 10 or 20 years and perhaps, maybe or possibly – it’s real right now. Probably no more than a few dozen people are impacted by the demise of Chacaltaya as a ski resort and you are likely not one of them. But rest assured something similar may happen to you much sooner than you think. Millions of Bolivians are finding out right now.
Thank you, Karl
On Ethics 7: Politics, Crime, Greed and Sex
May 9, 2007
Snow-white’s evil stepmother asked “Mirror, mirror, who is the fairest of them all?” We ask about politicians: “Mirror, mirror, who is the wickedest of them all?” The mirror in our tale might answer “Define wicked” or perhaps “How so?” With so many different kinds of wicked people around: how do you choose one politician over another? That is the question of this essay.
In poll after poll, the people voice their disgust and frustration with the wicked men and women they elect to office. The obvious but unanswerable question, of course, is – why elect such deadbeats in the first place? How come every one elected almost immediately joins the least trusted class on earth? Are many politicians incompetent scoundrels by birth or just an average bunch of people with their share of losers, criminals and maybe a winner or two? Is one gang of politicians “better” than some other gang beyond the bias of equally fanatic followers and opponents?
Are Politicians More Corrupt Than The Average Joe?
About 511,000 elected US politicians serve over 85,000 different governments. These governments provide a livelihood for anywhere from 6 to 17 million people, depending on how you count and who you believe. Breaking down the elected politicians (figuratively), 540 fill the US Congress and 2 the executive branch: the President and VP. 18,800 serve in the 50 state governments and a staggering 491,000 populate various offices locally such as mayors’ offices, city councils and the like. Government 
certainly is a big business.
Doing a bit of math, with which I shan’t bore you, this extrapolates to around 1 million elected politicians in the 218 years since 1789. Considering the typical crime rate in the population as a whole and corrected for the mostly white collar crimes we are interest in, about 20,000 of the 1 million likely would have criminal inclinations. That breaks down to about 50 criminal politicians on the federal level and some 1,000 in state government and no less than 19,000 in local government.
The analysis of this post is based on an updated and reworked version of the excellent “Political Graveyard” web site which lists, with some additions, corrections and updates, 547 disgraced US politicians going all the way back to the late 1700s. Of those, only about 60 on the federal level were convicted of a crime and subject to some significant punishment, usually prison. Add 50 convicts on the state level and 62 locally for a total of 172. The remaining 375 individuals received only minor punishment, were acquitted or got off free in some other manner.
|
Identified Vs. Expected Offenders |
Federal |
State |
Local |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Identified in database as convicted, punished |
60 |
50 |
62 |
|
Expected from the general, typical crime rate |
50 |
1,000 |
19,000 |
The number of identified federal offenders (60) is about what one would expect given the typical crime rate (50). In state and local government, the database identifies too few culprits to draw any conclusion. There is no evidence federal politicians are more criminal than average people. However, as you’ll see, the damages from crimes by the federal politician tend to be far greater than those of an average Joe.
The picture above is a campaign poster for Richard Nixon and Spiro Agnew. Both were to resign in disgrace, one for ethical and criminal charges and the other to avoid impeachment for Watergate cover-ups. The Good and the Bad, both reside in the database used in this post – details below.
Images in the post
This post contains an abundance of images as do practically all of my posts. After all, the blog is titled a “Photo Blog” and I happen to be a pro photographer. Many posts contain my own photos – this one does not. A series of factual graphs illustrate the points made – all of which are 
based on proprietary databases. The rest of the images are in two categories. First, some pictures serve as journalistic style illustrations related to the subjects covered. The picture below of a beaming Wilbur Mills with his Argentine Firecracker is a good example.
The second category is a bit different. I’ve chosen a series of photos from Robert Frank’s “Americans” collection (book) from the 1950s. To me, this is one of the most stunning documentation ever published of people in America – which is a good reason to include it. The real reason I included it is that I wanted to point out that politics is supposed to be in favor of the people. It is easy to forget that, especially if you are a politician that crossed the line. As a matter of fact, it is easy for a blogger to forget what this is all about in favor of a brief moment of fame based on some cheap point.
It’s about people, stupid.
The Tale of Two Photos
About the first of the two photos: Does anyone remember Wilbur Mills these days? A US Representative from 1939 to 1977, he was the menace of Washington DC females of all colors, shapes 
and professions. Liking his spirits, he cut quite a lively picture in the DC social life.
On October 7th, 1974, he gained true fame because of a somewhat rocky relationship with Argentine stripper Fannie Foxe (aka The Argentine Firecracker). That very night, being driven through DC, his car was stopped due to no headlights being on. As the cop approached, Fannie jumped out of the car and hopped into a nearby Tidal Basin. Wilbur, drunk as a skunk, remained in the car, fingering the scratches on his face.
Fannie eventually climbed out of the Basin; Wilbur temporarily sobered up enough to enjoy a 60% reelection by the good, not to mention open minded, people of Arkansas. But Fanniegate wasn’t over. Wilbur was soon forced to step down from his seat after staggering onto the stage of a Boston club where Fannie did her act, creating a bit of unfortunate turmoil. Allegedly, he later joined the AA. It’s not known what happened to Fannie except there are indeed some rumors involving the Kennedy’s.
The second picture shows Marion Barry, then mayor of Washington DC, take a hit of cocaine on Jan. 18, 1990. Marion was not yet aware he was the target of a monumental sting operation run by the FBI and DC Police. He was soon to find out.
The stingers took the picture using a 
surveillance camera set up in a DC hotel room where Marion met with a girl friend. Once they had the evidence, police and agents stormed the room. Marion was arrested, exclaiming “Goddamn setup… I’ll be goddamn. Bitch set me up!”
Charged with 14 drug related offenses, he was convicted on one charge. He had to step down from the mayor post and served six months in jail. He then returned to DC and clawed his way back into local politics.
His drug problems continued off and on till today. Even so, he remained, till today, powerful in DC politics, sometimes elected to various positions, sometimes not. He has been called “The Most Colorful Politician in America” and that is not because of his skin color.
Table of Content for this Post
Following are some introductory notes about these essays and this post in particular. If you hate such stuff and want the meat and potatoes right away, hit the bypass button below. If not, just keep going.
Here is a Table of Content (TOC) for your convenience, making it easy to move around and find what you are most interested in. There are TOC buttons throughout the post to lead you back here as needed. Also note the links in the menu on top of the post that gives you easy access to the TOC for the whole site and the RSS feeds. Enjoy!
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The links below takes you to the different sections of this post. Click this link for other posts in the On Ethics essays. Use this link to establish a RSS link to this blog. Bookmark this post using the Bookmark button below.
- This Post: On Ethics 7: Politics, Crime, Greed and Sex
- Are Politicians More Corrupt Than the Average Joe?
- Images in the Post
- The Tale of Two Photos
- About This Series of Essays
- Lies, Damn Lies, Statistics
- General Elections and Presidential Sins
- Who Are the Worst – Democrats or Republicans?
- The Answer
- Now and Then
- Coming from Where?
- Did What?
- Punished How?
- Next and Previous
About this series of essays
This is the 7th post in the Ethics series. Previous posts went through a wide selection of ethical questions and issues. Here are the main posts:
- On Ethics 1: Just A Point Of View? This post kicked off the Ethics series. It starts with a street photography issue but quickly veers into philosophy as related to life and politics.
- On Ethics 1A: Art and Descartes – What About It? This post discussed two reader questions: the first one dealt with a quote “I think, therefore I am” by Descartes. The second question asked who does one know what is art.
- On Ethics 2: Ethics and Morals of Torture. Suddenly US policy condones the use of torture, one of many violations of human rights practiced by the Bush administration. This post takes a look at the ethical consequences of that fatal decision.
- On Ethics 3: Clashes of Giants. Combining views on Ethics, Reality and Morals; the post covers ground from philosophy to torture with a bit of politics thrown in.
- On Ethics 4: Violence of the Ivory Towers. Governments, here known as Ivory Towers, commit unspeakable acts of violence. The post looks at the justifications for different types of War from an ethical stand point.
- On Ethics 5: Ivory Towers in Peace. Going from War to Peace, the post covers government influences, such as those of the Ten Commandments, the Geneva Conventions, Magna Carta, the UN, the Kyoto Protocol and Global Warming.
- On Ethics 6: We the People. Having covered the lofty atmosphere of the Ivory Towers, here is a discussion of personal ethics, such as ethnics, race, racism, culture and religion.
The present 7th post covers another issue: the ethics of elected US law makers and politicians. This issue came to mind as I read an obscure comment on some blog stating that Democrats are far more corrupt than Republicans, referring to evidence on a site I never heard of: “The Political Graveyard”. Intrigued by the wealth of interesting information on this site and the desire to find out who is corrupted, I ended up spending quite a bit more time than I expected. The result is this post.
Lies, damn lies And Statistics
This section reveals shocking details and secrets about the data used in this post. If you don’t care, feel free to skip to the next section. Knowing a bit about the data might help understanding the conclusions.
The Original Data
This post wouldn’t be possible without the tremendous amount of work put into the “Political Graveyard” web site. Lawrence Kestenbaum has done a phenomenal contribution over at least ten years. I only use a small part of the site’s information covering some 138,150 US politicians: the listing “Politicians Who Got into Trouble or Disgrace” of about 420 individual “troubled” politicians. The information was last updated in March 2005. The US election data comes from the records of the US Senate and Congress. The presidential data originated, mostly, from Dave Luid’s Presidential Election web site.
A Database, Updates and Additions
The Graveyard web site provides a plain listing of the “troubled” politicians. I needed a simple database so I could do some analysis. That means taking the listing and organizing it into standardized categories such as the politician’s name, life span, residence, party and position, reason for the “disgrace”, its severity and punishment if any.
This naturally surfaced a lot of missing information which was added both to the existing information and as completely new entries. In particular, about 25% of the entries lacked party affiliation, crucial to my particular question. So I added a mechanism to allocate a party affiliation wherever missing. The mechanism is completely mechanical, building on the prevailing political climate at the time and in the state from where the politician came. If the state was solid Republican I simply assumed so was the politician in question. Currently, the database contains complete information on 547 politicians.
Analytical Ideas
The most important analytical issue was attempting to make comparing the crime of one politician to 
another as fair as possible. The result is a ranking of each individual composed of three weights. The first weight is the level at which the individual served. Fair or not, a US Senator’s crime has a higher weight than that of a dog catcher in Crawford, TX. The second weight is the actual crime itself. Murder is more serious than refusing to wear a tie. The third weight is the level of punishment suffered. A conviction followed by jail has a much higher weight than losing the next election or being pardoned. Being acquitted, for instance, nullifies the whole entry in terms of “disgrace”.
The result is an index for each politician and his crime (out of 547 entries, less than 10 are women) that is fairer than just saying that being on this list is a crime, acquitted or not. Most, not all, of the graphs in this post are derived from these indices.
General Elections and Presidential Sins
In a US presidential election, the candidate that secures the most votes in a state wins that state. No one is in second place. Each state has a number of electoral votes – more in a large populous state then in smaller states with fewer people. The next president is the candidate supported by the most electoral votes. This post and its database use electoral votes to approximate relative size of the states. The following two graphs sums up the number of states won by each party, ignoring electoral votes.
The US conducted 55 presidential elections from 1789 to 2004 with 42 presidents taking office. In 1789, there were 10 states voting, today 50 states plus DC vote. In total, 2081 state level elections for the US presidency split into 946 state wins for Republicans, 856 for Democrats and 179 for the 10 small or short term parties.
However even that the distribution may be between Democrats and Republicans, what counts is the balance at each election with the winner taking it all although, of course, we may have different parties winning in the Senate, Congress and the White House or indeed gubernator races and state governments.. Such is the situation in 2007. The Democratic Congress presented a bill to the Republican White House containing time limits on the US involvement in Iraq. Bush vetoed the bill and neither party can impose their wishes, requiring some form of compromise across party lines.
Up till 1950, the Democrats’ fortunes rose rapidly. That was the time of Franklin D. Roosevelt and the New Deal in the 1930s, followed by a united wartime country. Before that, Woodrow Wilson was the
strongest Democratic president in the 1870-1920 slots. After 1950 and Harry Truman, the Republicans largely took over, starting with Eisenhower, then Nixon, Ford, Reagan and the Bushes. It turned into an era of many failures, scandals and some successes. By 2007, the failure ratio reached higher than ever and government ethics hit new lows. The outlook sadly approaches frightening levels.
Here is a list to help with the next discussions about the doubtful ethics of recent presidents. The history challenged among us may not quite remember who was president when:
Harry S. Truman (D): 1945-1953; Dwight D. Eisenhower (R): 1953-1961; John F. Kennedy (D): 1961-1963; Lyndon B. Johnson (D): 1963-1969; Richard M. Nixon (R): 1969-1974; Gerald R. Ford (R): 1974-1977; James E. Carter (D): 1977-1981; Ronald W. Reagan (R): 1981-1989; George H. W. Bush (R): 1989-1993; William J. Clinton (D): 1993-2001; George W. Bush (R): 2001-2009.
The Sins of Presidents
Considering the period from the end of WWII to today, there is plenty of evidence of presidential lies and ethical challenges that mare the records: Harry Truman concealed the truth about the Hiroshima and 
Nagasaki bombings by claiming: “The first atomic bomb was dropped on Hiroshima, a military base. That was because we wished in this first attack to avoid, in so far as possible, the killing of civilians.” 215,000 mostly civilians were killed by the two bombs. His administration suffered from corruption, including the firing or forced resignations of 166 appointees in IRS.
Dwight Eisenhower famously lied on national TV about the U2 over flights of the Soviet Union just as a U2 was shot down over the Soviet Union. He started the covert CIA actions against Cuba, including authorization to kill Fidel Castro using exploding cigars and other creative devices.
Eisenhower made a good start on the nuclear arms race by advocating the only war the US should fight be all out nuclear hydrogen annihilation – even though he knew very well that would kill most Americans as well as most Soviets. His war plan said simply required “the simultaneous use of over 3,000 nuclear warheads against all communist countries”. Of course, he never told the American people or the international allies about that little secret.
John F. Kennedy wildly exaggerated his wartime PT boat successes. In the early 1950s, he was quite close to, and supported the McCarthy madness, including the mighty Senator himself. He concealed a 
major drug dependency. Kennedy was a major Communist fear monger: he lied about a nonexistent Soviet threat: “We are now threatened with a missile gap that leaves us in a position of potentially grave danger.”
He very much avoided discussing his support of, and interference in, the Bay of Pigs disaster, claiming “I have previously stated and I repeat now that the United States intends no military intervention in Cuba.” His administration continued to plan Operations Northwood and Moongoose, both consisting on faked Cuban terrorist attacks on the US, followed by US retaliation.
Kennedy sent the Green Berets to Guatemala, eventually killing some 20,000 up till 1976 – continuing the long standing US policy to violently meddle in Central and Latin American countries. He sent the first significant troops to Vietnam. His acts contributed to the assassination of Vietnamese president Diem – earlier he favored 
assassinations of Prime Minister Lumumba of the Congo and Trujillo of the Dominican Republic. Continuously, ethical issues hurt his short presidency contradicting his cult status.
Lyndon Johnson, viewed as one of the most treacherous (or skilled as some view it) of politicians, misrepresented his WWII record, receiving a Silver Star for nothing. He claimed his great-great-grandfather died at the Alamo – although no doubt he had a great-great-grandfather, that person died nowhere close to the Alamo. He hid the frauds of his first election to the US Senate. He concealed the truth about the Kennedy assassination, altering key documents.
Johnson lied about the Tonkin Bay incident, using the fictitious event to escalate the Vietnam war dramatically: “As President and Commander in Chief it is my duty to the American people to report that renewed hostile actions against 
United States ships on the high seas in the Gulf of Tonkin have today required me to order the military forces of the United States to take action in reply.” There were no hostile acts in the Tonkin Bay by North Vietnam at that time, much less renewed hostilities. Hard to believe, but his extramarital sex life apparently beat both JFK and Bill Clinton heads down. The standing DC joke was “How can you tell when Lyndon is lying?” The answer: “When his lips move.”
Richard Nixon – Tricky Dick – started his career by lying about campaign slush funds. Later, he concealed support to overthrowing a legal government in Chile, resulting in several thousand political killings and some 30,000 incidences of torture. He lied about tax evasion, campaign contributions, harassments and wire tabs. He concealed many aspects of the Vietnam War, including expanding it into Laos and Cambodia. The Watergate cover up is an American landmark of the worst kind. He 
famously claimed not to be a crook. He did make a cocker spaniel named Checkers famous.
Jimmy Carter lied about the Iran hostage crisis and his earlier relationship with the Shah. In spite of his pious character, his administration was not as snow-white: his OMB chief, Bert Lance, had to resign; the Chief of Staff, Scott Hamilton, was scrutinized by a special prosecutor. His deranged brother Billy not only invented his own beer but acted as a paid agent of Libya. Add Debategate and Abscam to the record.
Gerald Ford, one of the more inoffensive presidents in recent memory, pardoned Richard Nixon which was legal although not very ethical. Known for tumbling down airport ramps, a murderous golf game and endless SNL jokes, his administration, not to mention himself, was the cleanest in ages.
Ronald Reagan like many others falsified his war record: He claimed he was an Army photographer filming Nazi death camps – that never happened; he spent that war in Hollywood. He presided over and lied about the Iran-Contra affair: “We did not – repeat – did not trade weapons or anything else for hostages
– nor will we.” Later, foolishly: “I’m afraid that I let myself be influenced by other’s recollections, not my own.” He was the president during most of the Nicaragua disaster where CIA and other US agencies went haywire, violating human rights and treaties, leading to a conviction in the International Court of Justice. He also reached fame for having 225 subordinates, such as Edward Meese, Michael Deaver, Samuel Pierce, James Watt and John Poindexter quitting in disgrace, being fired, arrested, indicted, convicted or in contempt of ethical standards.
Reagan also merrily stated: “Trees cause more pollution than automobiles do” and “In England, if a criminal carried a gun, even though he didn’t use it, he was tried for first-degree murder and hung if he was found guilty”.
Reagan’s tax policy contributed to the Savings and Loans scandal at a cost of $150 billion to tax payers or as much as $500 billion as viewed by some. Over 1,000 savings and loan institutions failed, leading to the 1990-91 recession. Senators Cranston, Riegle and DeConcini lost their jobs due to their relationship 
with Charles Keating – John Glenn and John McCain had close calls.
George Bush Sr. lied about taxes (“Watch my lips”), the Iran-Contra affair (“Out of the loop”), political murders by Chilean assassins and Koreagate. He did not readily discuss his relationships with Saddam Hussein (“Not prudent”), the bin Laden family or controversial Sun Myung Moon, who incidentally also had relations with Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan. Nor does he touch on the many rumors of his involvement in virtually hundreds of scandals during his long tenure with CIA. His pardon of six Iran-Contra figures did not go over well. His betrayal of the Shiite Intifada uprising against Hussein right after the first Gulf War is truly shameful even by the Bush family standards.
Other Bush Sr. lies include showing crack cocaine props on national TV, claiming they were seized across the street from the White House. DEA had set up a teenage drug dealer who voiced: “Where the f**k is the White House?” Also, Bush claimed the Patriot missiles saved Israel by blowing away 41 of 42 incoming Scud missiles during the first Gulf War. One Scud was hit.
Bill Clinton also fantasized about war records: “I wound up just going through the lottery, and it was just a pure fluke that I was never called”. He had important recollections from his childhood: “Since I was a little boy, I’ve heard about the Iowa caucuses.” and “I have vivid and painful memories of black churches being burned in my own state when I was a child.” Clinton went to England to avoid the draft, among 
other evasive tactics. There were no Iowa caucuses when Clinton was a little boy. No black churches were ever burnt in Arkansas.
Clinton got caught in Monica Lewinsky (“I want you to listen to me. I’m going to say this again: I did not have sexual relations with that woman, Miss Lewinsky.”). Then there were various other ladies of fortune, cigars, land holdings, campaign contributions, stock affairs, the White House travel firings and who knows what else. Impeachment and disbarment followed. The Lincoln Bedroom sales were not generally admired. The mystery of Vince Foster’s suicide and the investigations of Ron Brown, Commerce Secretary remain foggy items. Then there was Chinagate, Pardongate, Filegate and Whitewater.
The Eventual Legacy of George W. Bush
George W. Bush is likely the least ethical and the most incompetent president ever. He lies about, distorts or hides anything not promoting his distorted world view (Wars on Terror, Terrorists, Iraq, the UN, the international justice system; the Constitution, various laws and treaties, Civil Rights, Afghanistan, Islam, Gays, Pro Choice, Stem Cells, Mexicans, Climate, Environment, Social Entitlements, Iran, Lebanon, Syria, Iran, Venezuela, Cuba, Russia, China, the poor, the mentally ill, the disadvantaged, the middle class…..), self image (Decider, Commander Guy, Dictator, No Mistakes, Christian Crusader, War President….) and self interest (Power, Avoid War Criminal charges, 
Financial…..). Stubborn, blind sided, intolerant, inflexible and lacking curiosity, he does not even tolerate the advice of his dwindling supply of supporters. Blurring the Constitution on State-Church separation, he apparently prefers a joint venture with God to one with humans: “I trust God speaks through me. Without that, I couldn’t do my job.” Modest, isn’t he.
His Vietnam (non)war record is hidden in deep smoke screens – joining the Texas National Guard was made possible by the power of his father, followed by a career in the Guard with illegally unfulfilled attendance. Later, he was accused of insider trading of Harken Energy stock. He is close to many implicated in the Enron scandal – Kenny Lay, for instance, was a major donor to Bush campaigns.
He misunderstands terrorism and how to fight it. He declared war on Islam believing Islam = Terrorism, successfully, as it turned out, in creating a spirited insurgent and terrorist response, killing thousands a month. As he said: “The United States of America is engaged in a war against an extremist group of folks”. Utterly failed wars in Iraq and Afghanistan kill Americans on a daily basis, costing billions with zero benefit and a disastrous outlook. For example: “The British
Government has learned that Saddam Hussein recently sought significant quantities of uranium from Africa.”; “You know, one of the hardest parts of my job is to connect Iraq to the war on terror”; and “We found the weapons of mass destruction. We found biological laboratories. You remember when Colin Powell stood up in front of the world, and he said, Iraq has got laboratories, mobile labs to build biological weapons.” All lies. No foundation in reality. Still mindlessly defended.
He is hard at work spreading nuclear arms all over the globe. Today, the issue is North Korea, Iran, Pakistan, India and Israel. Tomorrow, it might be Lebanon, Syria, Alaska intuits, Congo, Parisian suburbs, Denmark and Ohio. He is destroying relations with China and Russia, losing long standing allies, insulting every one in the process. Every responsible leader wants the US out of Iraq, including his father, James Baker, most of Congress and the American people. He responds by increasing troop levels: “The solution to Iraq is more than a military mission. Precisely the reason why I sent more troops into Baghdad.”
He refuses to deal with Global Warming especially as his Supreme Court ordered him to do so and a united world demands it. He wants to drill for more oil domestically, increasing carbon emissions. He engages in a meaningless ethanol agreement with Brazil while keeping a huge tariff on Brazilian ethanol. His 
domestic ethanol policy is controversial indeed as ethanol production requires more energy than produced and causes more pollution than gained. His own Generals are concerned Global Warming is a national security issue, not to mention the warnings of thousands of scientists and the UN. He directed the EPA to break pollution laws. He ordered EPA scientists to falsify climate data and lie to the world, including Congress.
Bush continues his attempts to dismantle the Geneva Conventions in favor of water boarding and other forms of torture. He maintains illegal prisons all over the world, filled with illegally detained prisoners without legal representation, charges or trial. He ignores international laws and treaties, not to mention the US Constitution, Civil Rights and Privacy laws. He maintains support (so far) for a lawless Attorney General and Dirty Harry Karl Rove, just as he did with a megalomaniac Secretary of Defense.
On a positive note, it appears he is not contributing to the 137 count of known presidential mistresses over the last 218 years. It is not clear why that is the case.
This is a very brief discussion of the Bush White House and the man himself. Those interested in a more complete list might check out Wikipedia’s page on Bush “controversies”, listing about 250 specific entries. Happy reading. It’s not very funny.
US Election and Politics over Time
Returning to a historical perspective, following is an overview of the US national political scene as it developed over the past 218 years in the senate and house elections and sessions. Here are a few short term spikes as they happened over time: Southern Congressional Democrats lost out, for obvious reasons, during the Civil War. Republicans lost ground during the 1880s, during WWI and in the depression of the 1930s.
Overall, Republicans influence in the House trended down from the end of the Civil War till the 1970s, when their luck reversed, starting with a peak after WWII and FDR’s death.. Then the Democrats (top blue part of the graph) crawled back in the early 2000s. By 2007, Democrats dominate the Congress as Republicans continue to be plagued by one after another scandal and Bush’s low standings.
Most of the small parties in the 1700s and 1800s were allocated to the Republican Party for in the graph above – the Democratic Party didn’t really exist 
till after the Civil War. Incidentally, a few “small” parties were not small in their glory days: the Federalists dominated or were strong contenders till 1816 and then Democrat/Republicans took over for 8 years, followed by the Whigs being a significant factor going into the 1850s. Recently, the candidacies of Ross Perot and Ralph Nader played spoilers in the elections where they competed without winning a single state.
The Senate picture is similar but not identical. This time I choose to show a more complete picture of the political turmoil, party wise, from 1789 through the late 1850s. Unlike the proceeding, long lasting two party system, major parties come and went quickly.
Senatorial Republicans lost in the 1880s, WWI and the Great Depression, just like their House counterparts. However, the Senate races turned around, favoring the Republicans, right after WWII, some thirty years before the same turnaround in the House. Currently, Democrats (top blue part of the graph) dominate both the Senate and the House, partly because of the widespread disappointment with George W. Bush and partly because of the continuous scandals.
Who Are the Worst – Democrats or Republicans?
Here is the question that brought on this post. Someone writing a blog claimed there was evidence that Democrats are ethically worse than Republicans. True or false? The “Political Graveyard” site supported the statement, according to the blog. Now, does it really? Haven’t we all heard such vague statements with any old issue?
To the best of my knowledge, the Graveyard site does not draw generic conclusions, so the blog writer or someone else must have done some counting and interpretation of the data. I have found no direct support for the “bad Democrats” theory on the Graveyard web site. That site does not seem to have any political agenda. I did my own counting and the initial result suggested that the theory might, just maybe, be valid, based a cursory peek at the Graveyard data.
It sure looks like the blue Democrats hold a clear lead over the red Republicans in the scoundrel department. Twice as many Democrats look disgraced compared to the apparently more honorable Republicans. So it seems until you notice the green block of “Unknowns”, making up a 
quarter of the total. Also, you might remember the mention this information is over two years out of date. In the past two years, Republicans have had a spectacular run of poor ethics.
There is more to the political scene than Democrats and Republicans. A few Communists, Socialists, Fascists and Independents have left a minor mark here and there. Some tend to get arrested a lot, thereby reaching fame in our essay.
The data set does not, so far, distinguish between the Crawford dog catcher stealing a ballpoint pen from his supervisor and the five US law makers convicted of serious sexual offenses: Donald Lukens, Philip Giordano, Melvin Reynolds, Fred Richmond and Allan Howe. That does not seem equitable. Let’s correct that imbalance and bring the data up to date for a fairer picture:
Suddenly, the Republicans lost their moral advantage and ended up largely even with the previously filthy Democrats. This is pretty much thanks to the efforts of Duke Cunningham, Bob Ney, Jack Abramoff, 
Scooter Libby, Tom DeLay, Tom Feeney, Pete Sessions, Alberto Gonzales, Paul Wolfowitz, Dennis Hastert, Mark Foley, Ted Haggard, Bob Packwood, Chris Cannon, Bill First, Donald Rumsfeld, Ralph Reed, Randall Tobias and many others. Republicans have had quite a bad run lately.
Take one example: Dennis Hastert (R) from Illinois, succeeded Newt Gingrich as Speaker of the House. After the turmoil of Gingrich, everyone wanted peace and quiet. Hastert seemed to fit the bill and assumed the Speaker position in Jan, 1999. He continued his low profile approach to the point of being practically being invisible. Tom DeLay grabbed the opportunity to become the bully of the House till he fell off the wagon, tumbling towards prison in 2006.
Behind the scene, Hastert was not quite as invisible. He used his position to place a new highway close to a property he owned, netting a nice profit – the classic pork hit and run. He played Congressional kingmaker in a perhaps not completely ethical manner. In a rare moment of visibility, he declared that what remained of New Orleans “could be bulldozed” and rebuilding “doesn’t make sense to me”. Finally, he ignored the Mark Foley pursuits of under aged pages for three years. He did get reelected in 2006, but is digging a deep foxhole in which to hide for what he declared to be his last term. He now carries no leadership mantles.
There is not much difference between Democrats and Republicans in the overall picture. Both parties 
hide mountains of skeletons in their respective closets. Differences are usually easily explained or at least understood. For instance, Democrats suffered in the Civil War by having their Democrat US law makers expelled by the North. After the War, many Southern Democrats were imprisoned by the Union for, usually, short periods of time. Later, Democrats have been hurt by mob connections in New Jersey, New York and Party Bosses in other areas. Republicans, on the other hand, lost ground during the Great Depression. Today, they seem out of touch with their inner ethics and sex feelings.
Compare the pie graph above with the two pie graphs below. All three are remarkably similar. The two graphs below show the party composition of the US Senate and the US Congress over the 1789-2007 periods. They support the view that the crime rate among Republican lawmakers is about the same as that of Democrats. In addition, as we’ve seen, there is no real evidence politicians are more criminally minded than people in general. First, here is the Senate composition: 
Here is the same graph for Congress – looks quite the same: 
They all look about the same, right? But there is a problem with saying high level politicians are no better, no worse than the common man based on a similar crime rate:
The Answer
I found the answer I sought. Both parties are guilty, neither is dominant. Big deal: it’s a draw as any reasonable person would expect. No smoking gun found to bring blogger fame and a glorious scoop hitting NYT front page. Life isn’t fair.
A crime by a president or senator has far more serious consequences than when Uncle Ben from Wichita went nuts. When Alfredo Gonzales, as the Attorney General, lies or breaks the law he makes the whole legal system look corrupt. Lies by the White House regarding Iraq caused well over 3,000 dead Americans and put hundreds of thousand Iraqi in premature graves. When Bush chooses to ignore the Geneva Conventions, every member of the US military faces horrible POW treatment as now the enemy, be it insurgents or states, can ignore the Conventions.
But let’s see what else we might be able to learn from these not so glorious characters now that we have this great little database. When did these hideous crimes take place? From where did the offenders come? What precisely did they do and were they punished fairly?
Now and then
Since our data goes all the way back to 1789, is there a story in how the offenders’ behavior changed over time? Here is a straight count of offenders over time, adjusted to an annual, comparable per capita level:
The forefathers were anything but innocent. The 1800s through the Civil War were not 
altogether ethical either. All robbers, no coppers! Much of the high rate for the 1790s is due to only 2.5 million people residing in the US, compared to 300 million today. But the 2.5 million produced more than their share of crooks. The early split between Democrats and Republicans is arbitrary until after the Civil War. Earlier, no party resembled today’s configuration.
Here are some of most serious offenders in each time period:
- 1750-1800: Joseph Galloway: Treason; Robert Morris: Bankruptcy and Oliver Wolcott: Arson.
- 1800-1870: Clement Clay (D): Conspiracy; Lawrence Hall (D): Disloyalty; Michael Walsh (D): Libel.
- 1870-1920: Caleb Powers (R): Murder; Ernest Jahnke (R): Revolt; William Lorimer (R): Bribery.
- 1920-1950: John Thomas (R): Embezzlement; John Hoeppel (D): Conspiracy; Daniel Flood (D): Conspiracy.
- 1950-2007: Duke Cunningham (R): Bribery; David Rostenkowski (D): Fraud; Donald Lukens (R): Sexual.
Joseph Galloway was an American Loyalist during the Revolutionary War and served as Speaker of the 
Pennsylvania House of Representatives from 1766 to 1774. At that time, his loyalty image suffered a bit as he favored that the Colonies should not be independent but recognize the British King. By 1776, he openly joined the British side as they occupied Philadelphia. By 1779, he took up residence in London. He remained in Britain till his death. Meanwhile, he was stripped of US assets, estates and convicted of treason in his old neighborhood.
There actually were two Clement C. Clay, father and son, in American politics in the early to mid 1800s. The father was Governor of Alabama and later served in the US Senate with no apparent ethical issues. It is the son that is of interest. He too was a Senator from Alabama, withdrawing to the Confederate side during the Civil War. In 1865, he was suspected of being a principal part of a conspiracy leading to the assassination of 
Abraham Lincoln. He and his wife spent a year in prison.
Caleb Powers briefly served as Secretary of Kentucky in 1899. He was convicted in 1900 of complicity in the assassination of the Kentucky Governor and sentenced to prison. His sentence was overturned and reinstated several times in no less than four trials. Pardoned in 1908, he went right back into politics and won several terms to Congress.
John Thomas, a right wing US Congressman from 1937 to 1950, was mostly known for opposing FDR’s New Deal, claiming it “sabotaged the capitalist system”. Being an early version of Joe McCarthy, he kept summoning suspected Communists to hearings, in particular from the movie industry. Meanwhile, suspicions rose that perhaps Thomas’ view of the capitalist system condoned corruption. After exposure by his secretary, he pleaded no contest on embezzlement charges and was promptly sent to jail. Truman eventually pardoned him but Thomas did not succeed in reentering politics.
Duke Cunningham was a Navy flyer achieving ace status in the Vietnam War. A San Diego District elected him to Congress in 1990 and reelected him six times in a career known for colorful incidences. He favored death penalty for drug dealers but temporarily changed his mind when his son was caught with 400 lbs of pot. 
By 2005, allegations of corruption started to surface, one after another. Late in 2005, after plea bargaining, he pleaded guilty to tax evasion, bribery, mail fraud and wire fraud. He resigned from his seat, forfeited some personal property and is currently in prison.
Duke generally is not viewed as the brightest star of them all. For instance, the former Top Gun flier resided, inconspicuously he thought, in Washington on a luxury yacht named “Duke Stir” belonging to private sector coconspirator and sponsor who also ended up in prison. Duke paid no rent, but entertained numerous ladies of dubious character to champagne wearing his pajamas bottoms, no doubt inspired by Hugh Hefner. The aftermath of the Cunningham scandal is still, in 2007, going on with several recent indictments.
Leaving Duke in his cell and continuing our journey into the shame halls of the Republic, the evolution of punishments suffered by the politicians makes a point which is somewhat good news (maybe):
The minor punishment category consists of acquittal, dropped cases and similar non events. Its share is essentially unchanged since the 1790s at 25% of the total. The big change is the drastic decline in “medium” punishments and a corresponding increase in the “major” category from 1920 and on. Today’s conviction rate – and carrying out the sentences – in the “major” segment is three times as high as it was in the 1800s up till the 1920s.
Here is what happened: Early on in our time frame, “punishment” was a pretty flexible concept. A culprit might be convicted but that by no meant life was over. All kinds of deals were made and 
rarely were the sentences carried out to its official scope. Many were pardoned and others fled overseas or underground for a suitable period.
By the 1940s, this practice started to decline drastically. Those sentenced generally served a reasonable amount in jail. Ethically, that may be good news although some pardons are no doubt required for justice to be fair.
The drastic decline in pardons shows up in presidential pardons of not only politicians but people in general. A steep rise from 1789 through the early 1940s reversed to a rapid decline. Under George W. Bush pardons have almost disappeared as you might expect from his record as Texas governor. Is this decline good or bad news? Does it mean that criminals serve the punishment they deserve or does it mean presidents are more intolerant and unfair, leaving innocents to rot in prison? I’m sure it is a combination of both. It does seem obvious, though, that many convicted politicians in the past got off far easier than they deserved.
Even today, quite a few politicians escape by resigning or fingering someone else. Pardons still are alive although rare. Here are a few of those pardoned in spite of some pretty heavy convictions: Albert Lange ((R): Conspiracy; R (D): Conspiracy; Andrew Jackson May (D): Bribery; Richard Nixon (R): Perjury et al.
Andrew Jackson May was a New Deal Democrat in Congress from 1931 to 1947. He gained fame mostly through two incidents, both related to WWII. First, during the war he managed to release secret information about the deficiency of Japanese depth charges dropped on US submarines. May, at a press conference, let it be known that the Japanese set their charges to explode at too shallow depth. Known as the May Incident, the secret information was widely published, magnifying the disastrous breach of secrecy. About ten US submarines were sunk with 800 hands as the Japanese promptly reset their fuses.
Second, May used his influence as Chairman of the Military Affairs Committee to steer munitions contracts to friendly companies in exchange for a generous bribe. He was convicted, sent off to prison and served nine months. Harry Truman was kind enough to grant him full pardon in 1952. May was unable to revive his political career and returned home to practice law.
Summarizing the different offenses over time brings up a new point. First, about the data: the “Crime” part in the graph below includes the typical non-monetary white collar crimes ranging from conspiracy, corruption, arson and forgery to treason, DUIs, bigamy and dueling. The “Rules” part covers items such as misconduct, mismanagement, disloyalty, conflict of interest, neglecting duty and the like. “Money” summarizes embezzlement, tax evasion, money laundering, campaign money issues and bribery. “Violence” includes murder, manslaughter and other violence. The “Sexual” item adds up frequenting prostitutes, homosexuality, sexual harassment, pedophilia and molestation.
The white collar “Crime” part, except for the very early time period, was stable at around 35%. The “Rules” part declined as “Money” issues climbed dramatically up till 1950. After 1950, it looks like sex became more important to law makers than money – from one sin to another. It’s probably more likely that sexual infringements went unreported before, say, the 1980s – few cared except the victims. Recent years have seen a great increase in awareness about sexual harassment and child exploitation.
Coming from where?
Which are the wicked states? Where do these disgraced politicians reside or get elected? As might be expected, the large states elect most of the losers. New York, California, Pennsylvania and Ohio together put over 25% of the total bad guys into power, three times the national average rate. Expand to the top ten states: they elected 57% of the culprits.
Then there is the other end. Three states – Vermont, North Dakota and Delaware elected no disgraced politicians. More accurately, that’s the case given the database sample – these states might have a few skeletons too. Still, the ten most honest states elected less than 1.5% of ethically challenged politicians.
The chart above counts the number of politicians from each party. One step further shows which party received its sleaze balls from a particular state. The graph below uses the same data as above but shows the difference for each state: one party minus the other: California, for instance, elected 39 bad guys, of which 11 were Democrats and 28 were Republicans. Thus, the graph displays 17 bad guys in (dis)favor of the Republicans. On the other end, Arkansas elevated a net of 11 bad Democrats into power.
California, New Jersey, New Hampshire and Indiana are bad news for Republicans. Arkansas, Mississippi and New York elect many of the rouge Democrats.
The next issue is that you obviously expect the larger states to have more bad guys than the smaller ones. The graph below allows for that by dividing the state data by the number of electoral votes for the state. The graph uses data corrected for the rankings (the position of the politician, the severity of the disgrace and the punishment). That changes the picture quite dramatically: suddenly, the big states drop way down, in fact so far that they almost appear honest.
The Republican bad apples now come out of New Hampshire, Indiana and Nebraska. Democrats suffer disgrace originating in Arkansas, DC and Louisiana. California, New York and New Jersey no longer stand out as centers for political halls of criminal pursuits.
There is one final step to be taken. A state such as New York elected politicians as early as 1789 while Alaska elected no one federally till 1960. It would seem Alaska is getting a free ride since the option to elect crooks to federal office was limited for most of our time frame. The last step takes the data from the above graph and divides it by the number of federal elections in which the state participated. That number ranges from 55 elections for New York to 12 for Alaska and 11 for DC.
Watch DC jump into the limelight! The city of Marion Barry takes the top spot. Actually, Washington DC is not a particularly crime ridden metro area, contrary to what you might have heard. It does suffer from being the residence of some disgraced politicians elected (or hired – not all politician are elected) elsewhere. So the shame rate is a bit biased upwards for that particular area.
Here are a few of the worst offenders by the top and tail states by party:
- New Hampshire (R): Mark Seidensticker: Sexual; George Ordway: Corruption; David Brooks: Perjury.
- Arizona (R): Steve Aiken: Sexual; J. D Hayworth: Corruption; Rick Renzi: Corruption.
- DC (D): Marion Barry: Violations; Albert Rhodes: Disloyalty; Walter Fauntroy: Campaign money.
- Arkansas (D): Bill Clinton: Perjury; Roy Lewellen: Murder; William Sebastian: Violations.
Mark Seidensticker of Concord, NH, was arrested in 1992 after he picked up two teenage boys and drove them to the woods to listen to some music. The boys managed to escape and called the police. Seidensticker was found guilty and required to register as a sex offender for 10 years. He violated that requirement in 1998, 2002 and 2004. He was also convicted of criminal trespass and indecent exposure. In 2004, he was court ordered to have no unsupervised contact with minors for a year.
In 2005, he approached three teenagers in his car. He managed to pick up a 14 year old boy. Later released, the teenagers had an adult contact police. The police found Seidensticker driving around in a car equipped with jelly, blankets and ropes. He was jailed, convicted and sentenced to two years in jail.
Now, Seidensticker worked as a long term campaign worker to a local politician. The politician was quite aware of Seidensticker’s status as a sex offender and claimed to have personally supervised him during campaign events. In light of his ties to Seidensticker, the politician was asked to step down. As one might expect, a political storm broke out which as most do petered out into nothing.
Leaving NH politics and sex offenders to their fates and continuing to a summary of this section:
|
As viewed by |
Producing Bad Republicans |
Producing Bad Democrats |
|---|---|---|
|
Sheer Number |
California, New Jersey, New Hampshire, Indiana, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Connecticut |
Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, New York, Tennessee, Alabama, DC |
|
Consider Size |
New Hampshire, Indiana, Nebraska, Connecticut, Arizona, Iowa, Montana |
Arkansas, DC, Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee, Alabama, West Virginia |
|
Consider Time |
New Hampshire, Arizona, Nebraska, Alaska, Montana, Indiana, Iowa |
DC, Arkansas, Mississippi, Louisiana., Alabama, Utah, Tennessee |
|
Common states |
New Hampshire and Indiana |
Arkansas, DC, Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee and Alabama |
Each of the three ways we reviewed has pluses and minuses. The table above summarizes the three ways by listing the top seven states for each of the two parties. Then identify which states are present in all three methods: we should be pretty sure those are quite wicked. As it turns out, New Hampshire and Indiana made some bad Republican choices while Arkansas, Washington DC, Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee and Alabama caused the Democrats considerable grief.
Did what?
Once these losers managed to get themselves elected or hired, what exactly did they do to deserve inclusion in this undistinguished gang of disgraced politicians? As you’ll see in the next graph, they did all kinds of horrible things:
Some Republicans and a few Democrats have trouble keeping their pants on and zipped up at the appropriate 
moments, resulting in sex crimes being the biggest category. The politician sex offender category is far larger than implied by the comparable national rate. Among federal law makers, the sex crime rate is in the order of 10 per 1,000 compared to less than 1 per 1,000 in the general population. That is, law makers in Washington DC are over ten times more likely to commit sex offenses than the average Joe. If there ever was a smoking gun, here it is.
The number two offense, bribery, hits an equivalent number of Republicans and Democrats, followed by hodgepodge category of “Violations”. Summarizing, Democrats are a bit fraudulent and murderous; Republicans lead as corrupt, lying, conspiratorial, treacherous embezzlers.
“Name the scoundrel” continues for a few of the top categories:
- Sexual: Donald Lukens (R); Philip Giordano (R); Melvin Reynolds (D).
- Bribery: Richard Hanna (D); Percy Giles (D); Mario Biaggi (D).
- Fraud: Edward Pritchard (D); Marvin Warner (D); Carroll Hubbard (D).
- Corruption: William Vare (R); Ken Calvert (R); Jerry Lewis (R).
Donald Lukens, was a US Congressman from Ohio in the 1960s, a Ohio state senator in the 1970s and 1980s and, again, a US Congressman in the 1990s, He was caught on camera by a local TV station, 
discussing having sex with a teenage girl against a $40 “gift”. The discussion in question was with the mother of the teenager. Lukens was found guilty on a minor charge, but refused to give up his Congress seat in spite of pressure. He was defeated in the next election. During his last months in office, he fondled an elevator operator, landing him a month (reduced to 9 days) in jail. Some years later, he was convicted on bribery and conspiracy charges in the Rubbergate scandal (more below).
Richard Hanna, US Congressman from California from 1963-1974, accepted a $200,000 bribe from South Korea businessman Tongsun Park. Hanna was convicted and sentenced to prison for up to 30 months. As it turned out, this was only the tip of a very large iceberg, known as Koreagate. This money for favors scheme allegedly involved 115 members of the US Congress. The 115 shrunk to 30, then 10 members and finally 7 and only one conviction: Richard Hanna (D) was convicted as per above; Edward Roybal (D) was censured; Charles Wilson (D) and John McFall (D) were reprimanded. Edward Patten (D) was found not guilty while Otto Passman (D) was spared indignity due to illness. Later, Mr. Park was convicted of corrupt dealings with very senior UN officials in the Iraq oil-for-food program, directly tied to Saddam Hussein. Park was sentenced to 5 years in prison in early 2007.
Carroll Hubbard of the US Congress from 1975 to 1993 became a person of interest as the Rubbergate banking scandal broke in 1992. Rubbergate referred to a congressional “house bank” run on extremely loose practices to the convenience of the law makers. Few records were kept or dispersed. Overdrafts were allowed with little control. Newt Gingrich and the Gang of Seven soon saw an opportunity to get rid of democrats by making the scandal public. This move backfired as it turned out Gingrich wrote overdraft checks himself. Ultimately, over 450 representatives were involved but only 77 were either forced to 
resign or lost the next election. Four ex-Congressmen were convicted: Donald Lukens (above), Carroll Hubbard, Carl Perkins and Mary Oakar – all Democrats except Lukens.
Jerry Lewis, not to be confused with the actor, is a conservative Republican US Representative from California, having served since 1979. He is under investigation for funneling hundreds of millions of federal dollars to friends, relatives and anyone willing to kick back a generous campaign contribution. The money allegedly is laundered through the lobbying firm Copeland Lowery which is lucky enough to earn millions in fees. Lewis’ links to the firm are very close with employees go back and forth from his staff to the firm, earning millions in the process. He is also investigated for other possible ethics violations, being declared one of the most corrupt Congressmen by several organizations. One area of investigation concerns his ties to the activities of Duke Cunningham (see earlier discussion). Although not charged yet, he stands a good chance of indictments for bribery, fraud and violations of various House ethical rules. One of the US DAs investigating Lewis was Carol Lam, recently and controversially dismissed by Alfredo Gonzales.
Punished how?
For most of us, if we commit an offense we end up in court and are either found not guilty or we face a well defined punishment, be it community service or death row. Not so simple if you are a well placed law maker. The US Senate, for instance, has the power to impeach, convict, expel, reprimand, subpoena, censure, reject, remove from privileged committees, force a resignation and take various disciplinary actions. Of course, the Senate may also choose to ignore the matter, acquit, drop the charges, plea bargain or refer the incidence elsewhere at its discretion. 
If the crime is serious enough (by the standards of the law makers) the matter certainly is surrendered to the regular authorities. In practice, that is not a given. If a member resigns, the matter usually is 
closed. Newt Gingrich faced 84 counts of ethics violations, including violations of tax laws and perjury. He resigned with no further action taken. Mark Foley’s sexual advances towards minors resulted in his resignation. Although law authorities such as FBI are said to investigate the Foley case, there is no sign of indictments or active pursuit of investigations six months later.
My database lists 42 politicians resigning and thereby avoiding most punishments.
- The crimes involved include: Bribery (4), Corruption (4), Fraud (2), Murder/Violence (3), Perjury (2) and Sexual (11).
- Top names include: Mark Foley (R): Sexual; John Eaton (D): Violence; Oliver Wolcott (R): Arson; Spiro Agnew (R): Bribery and Rick Renzi (R): Corruption.
Does anyone remember Spiro Agnew, Nixon’s VP from 1969 to 1973? The son of a Greek immigrant, Agnew fought his way uphill to become Governor of Maryland. He was the American Success Story – the first Greek-American, not to mention son of a poor immigrant, to reach the post. With that image and because Agnew was perceived to catch Southern votes, Nixon took him on as VP in the 1968 election. Agnew quickly became Nixon’s hatchet guy with a rich vocabulary of insults for Blacks, Vietnam protesters, political opponents and 
journalists. The balloon burst when he was forced to plead no contest to tax evasion and money laundering. He ended up convicted, on probation, disbarred and forced to pay hefty fines, as well as losing the VP position. Life by no means ended, he continued to live the American Dream in four grand homes coast to coast till his death at 77.
Another punishment category is called “Slapped”. That means there was some punishment involved but nowhere close to a normal sentence. The database lists 62 individuals being “slapped” in lieu of a regular punishment.
- Crimes include: Bribery (2), Campaign Money (3), Conspiracy (6), Corruption (2), Embezzlement (3), Fraud (6), Murder/Violence (3), Perjury (3), Sexual (4), Tax Evasion (2) and Treason (4).
- Top names include: Andrew Jackson May (D): Bribery; Benjamin Harris (D): Conspiracy, John Langley (R): Conspiracy and Rudolph Tenerowicz (D): Conspiracy.
Rudolph Tenerowicz served as the mayor of Hamtramck, Michigan from 1928 to 1932. Convicted in 
1932 on vice conspiracy charges, he was sent to prison. Soon, he was pardoned by the Governor and returned to serve as mayor from 1936 to 1938. He continued his political career as a US Representative, lasting till 1943, after which his political career was over in spite of reelection attempts through 1954 as both Democrat and, occasionally, Republican.
“Impeachment” by itself means little in terms of an actual punishment which requires an additional conviction phase. Bill Clinton was impeached but eventually acquitted. Andrew Johnson is the other impeached president who also was acquitted. 15 other officials have been impeached – almost all serving in the Justice system and most were removed from their duties.
“Censured” means nothing from an actual punishment point of view. Nine US Senators have been censured. Expulsion is a more serious punishment – similar to being fired – but is a very rare occurrence: 13 Senators were expelled due to supporting the Confederate side during the Civil War. That meant little since the Senators had already left the capitol for Southern pastures. William Blount is the only other expulsion for favoring British interests in Florida in 1797. Blount recovered in Tennessee to become speaker in the state Senate.
The bottom line in crime and punishment still is the conviction rate where significant punishment is imposed and the sentence is largely carried out. That definition leads to 173 or about 32% convictions of the 547 individuals in our survey. Clearly, law makers have a pretty good chance of avoiding punishment. But 173 law makers found out that did not apply to them. Further, signs are that the favored treatments have declined over the last fifty years. Today’s society of merciless blogs, YouTube and mass global, instant communication through an ever increasing array of media that did not exist even five years ago makes life even more difficult for the shady politicians.
Next and previous
What’s to Learn?
Based on the data available to this post, there is no overall evidence politicians are more criminal than average 
people. However, crimes by politicians usually have far more serious consequences than those of an average citizen. Crimes by politicians are also much more visible, when exposed, than crimes by ordinary people. There are signs that “Power corrupts”: once a politician goes over the edge, he just keeps going, imagining immunity, reaching for more and more till the bubble bursts.
There is a major exception to the above. Federal elected law makers are up to ten times more likely than the average population to commit sex crimes. A fair part of that are crimes against children and underage teenagers.
Both Democrats and Republican carry a heavy load of highly visible skeletons, from the presidential level down. Politicians have committed every conceivable crime but most are in the white collar area: bribery, embezzlement, treason, perjury, corruption, conspiracy and breaking various, usually ethical, rules. Some are not white collar: murder, violence and sex crimes.
Presidents, of course, are the most scrutinized individuals on earth and none in the last 60 years come through as innocents. Every single president has committed some ethical violation and most committed many. Only rarely are they punished for their acts. Richard Nixon and Bill Clinton did suffer some. George W. H. Bush Sr., Jimmy Carter, Gerald Ford and Lyndon Johnson did not get reelected. Ronald Reagan sailed through any rocks effortlessly as did Dwight Eisenhower, each doing as little as possible. Incredibly, George W. Bush will not suffer for his many sins in spite of some impeachment efforts.
Perhaps you notice a bit of a contradiction here. On the one hand, federal level politicians are no more criminal (convicted) than the average population, yet every single president is clearly ethically deficient, perhaps with an exception or two. Here is the rub: presidents may be totally corrupt but they almost never suffer the consequences. Richard Nixon resigned to avoid impeachment. Bill Clinton did not back down and was impeached but suffered no punishment. George W. Bush is guilty of war crimes but will go unpunished – he massaged US laws to ensure that happy outcome. Hence, there are no consequences to suffer, and these guys know it.
Geographical differences abound: some states are far more likely to produce bad politicians: on a sheer numbers base, look out for New York, California, Pennsylvania and Ohio while Delaware, North Dakota, Vermont are all snow white. Historically, Republicans have been hurt by bad apples from New Hampshire and Indiana. Democrats have suffered from some ethically challenged individuals out of the Deep South. Links to organized crime and party bosses does not pay out as is evident from many events in New Jersey, New York and Chicago.
Many scandals, ethical or criminal, involve not one but many politicians. There is a herd mentality that easily crosses party lines. Examples involving many, some hundreds, of law makers: Abscam, Rubbergate, Koreagate, Chinagate, Watergate, Debategate, Filegate, Monicagate, Iraqgate (several versions), Attorneygate, Foleygate, 
Hookergate, Hostagegate, Pardongate, Teamstergate, Travelgate, Katrinagate, Plamegate and Enrongate plus the Iran-Contra, Savings and Loan, Abu Ghraib and Abramoff scandals . All of these examples are on the federal level – imagine adding in state and local scandals.
There are some encouraging signs: more law makers are convicted of their crimes. More have to serve their punishment as abuses of pardons and plea bargains declined. Even so, the latitude of law maker punishment is far greater than for ordinary people. Many lawmakers end up with far smaller punishments than would ordinary citizens. The evolution of the web with all its bloggers, videos and instant communications have created a whole new set of accountability rules that perhaps not all culprits realize yet.
Who Are the Worst?
Judging ethics, in the final analysis, is not a matter of statistics. It’s a matter of enlightened opinion, a very personal possession. That opinion is based on a great 
many moral and ethics factors, many of which are covered in my post On Ethics 6: We the People. In this particular case, one’s political leanings also come into the picture. These may or may not be related to ethical beliefs.
I wanted to disclose my own view on the worst of the worst because it illustrates my biases which, I’m sure color this whole post.
Having done the analysis, pondered the ethics not necessarily visible in the analysis and applying personal biases, here is my list of the top 6 worst of the worst by category from 1970 to today, delivered without further comments:
- Presidents and VPs: George W. Bush (R), Richard Nixon (R), Jimmy Carter (D), Dick Cheney (R), Spiro Agnew (R), Bill Clinton (D).
- Congress: Newt Gingrich (R), Duke Cunningham (R), Gary Condit (D), Donald Lukens (R), James Inhofe (R), Tom DeLay (R).
- Other: Pat Robertson (R), Ann Coulter (R), Jack Abramoff (R), Karl Rove (R), Donald Rumsfeld (R), Marion Barry (D).
Feel free to agree, disagree, accuse and add or whatever you might wish to submit as a response. Ethics are subject to diverse and personal factors, none of which are precisely the same in any of us. Thank you all.
This is the 7th post in the Ethics series. Previous posts went through a wide selection of ethical questions and issues. Here are the m
ain posts:
- On Ethics 1: Just A Point Of View? This post kicked off the Ethics series. It starts with a street photography issue but quickly veers into philosophy as related to life and politics.
- On Ethics 1A: Art and Descartes – What About It? This post discussed two reader questions: the first one dealt with a quote “I think, therefore I am” by Descartes. The second question asked who does one know what is art.
- On Ethics 2: Ethics and Morals of Torture. Suddenly US policy condones the use of torture, one of many violations of human rights practiced by the Bush administration. This post takes a look at the ethical consequences of that fatal decision.
- On Ethics 3: Clashes of Giants. Combining views on Ethics, Reality and Morals; the post covers ground from philosophy to torture with a bit of politics thrown in.
- On Ethics 4: Violence of the Ivory Towers. Governments, here known as Ivory Towers, commit unspeakable acts of violence. The post looks at the justifications for different types of War from an ethical stand point.
- On Ethics 5: Ivory Towers in Peace. Going from War to Peace, the post covers government influences, such as those of the Ten Commandments, the Geneva Conventions, Magna Carta, the UN, the Kyoto Protocol and Global Warming.
- On Ethics 6: We the People. Having covered the lofty atmosphere of the Ivory Towers, here is a discussion of personal ethics, such as ethnics, race, racism, culture and religion.
Thank you, Karl
On Reality 6 Preview: The Magic of Jeff Wall
April 20, 2007
Jeff Wall is a photographer from Vancouver, BC. He is exhibited, represented and respected around the world for his unique art. He will serve us as a deep dive into the far reaches to which creativity might lead. Jeff Wall is not your average photographer in any sense of the word. His 25 year career produced, so far, only about 130 images, sold in extremely limited editions for around $1 million each.
Please note: This post has been updated. Follow this link to the update “On Reality 6 Rev. – Jeff Wall Magic Revisited”. Thank you and enjoy.
- Jeff Wall uses state-of-the art photographic and computer technology to create images that share the composition, scale and ambitions of the grandest history paintings. His works often have the formal clarity of documentary photography. He exclusively stages his scenes, sometimes reproducing or interpreting paintings or specific events.
- He does not seek the decisive moment or the picturesque scene. Nor does he create symmetry, lyricism, formal perfection or abstraction. He does not deceive you, hide his intentions or use the work of others except as visual inspiration. He avoids pop culture images and enjoys some irony.
- Each of his images is the result of immensely elaborate creative explorations. He may spend from weeks to years on completing a single finished image. He never repeats himself and is always unique. He tells the obvious story or none at all.
- The subjects range from very complex to surprisingly simple, even banal “every day” slices of life. He moves from landscape and street photography to still life and genre painting, to Japanese woodblock prints and medical illustration, to Impressionist and Baroque painting.
- He views himself as part painter, part movie director and part photographer, all three being part, in his opinion, of a single pictorial tradition. Some images are shot on location, others in his studio. The process may include paid actors and consultants such as marine biologists, stage builders and Hollywood special effects experts.
- His images are very large even considering his frequent use of large format cameras and medium format Hasselblads – often in the order of 6 feet by 6 feet or 2*2 meters. Some measure 10 feet by 16 feet. The people in the images are often life-size. He can combine hundreds of images into one. The images may be prints (traditional or inkjet) or transparencies mounted in light boxes.
This post is part of my Mysteries of Photography series. Among many other subjects, I explore the mystery of creativity and visions in photography. Studying the work of Jeff Wall certainly is a very worthy endeavor if you care about photographic creativity. So I offer this post as yet another preview to the upcoming main essay “Mysteries of Photography”. Here are links to other photographic posts on this blog.
Here is a sample of Jeff Wall’s art – “A View from an Apartment (2004-2005)”:
The present material partially depends on an outstanding article, dated 2007-02-25 and titled The Luminist, published in New York Times by Arthur Lubow. This original article is outstanding. I hope my summary, additions and reorganization hasn’t completely destroyed the spirit of it.
First, here is a simple Table of Content for this post. You can reach the TOC through the “TOC” buttons throughout the post.
- Images
- The Destroyed Room 1978
- Picture for Women 1979
- Dead Soviet Soldiers in Afghanistan 1992
- A Sudden Gust of Wind (After Hokusai) 1993
- Diagonal Composition 1993
- Diagonal Composition No 2 1998
- The Flooded Grave 1998-2000
- After “Invisible Man” by Ralph Ellison, the Prologue 1999-2000
- Outside a Nightclub 2004-2005
- Men Waiting 2006
- Techniques
- Critique
- Me
- Previous and Next
Images
“The Destroyed Room,” shows an extensively vandalized bedroom, made in 1978 as his wife, Jeannette, had left him temporarily for another man. The ransacked room contains a strewn heap of women’s clothing. This tableau of violence, directed against a woman’s possessions, acknowledges feminist art criticism. Wall used Jeannette’s clothing to construct the scene. “I borrowed her clothes because we were still on good terms and she had the good clothes,” he said. You can easily detect the scene is staged in a studio.
Wall based the image on a 19th-century painting, “The Death of Sardanapalus” by Delacroix. Sardanapalus, an Assyrian king with his armies defeated, preemptively destroys his court and harem. The influence is obvious in the diagonal lines and the rich, red palette. Wall wants you recognize the reference to the painting. He pushes his claim to belong to the great tradition of Western art as hard as he can.
In spite of the allusions to Delacroix and feminist art criticism, did the image revolve around a spurned husband’s rage? The question doesn’t shake Wall. “I don’t find my own experiences very interesting. I find my observations interesting. Maybe that’s why I’m a photographer. Maybe an observation is an experience that means more to you than other experiences.”
“Picture for Women” (1979) interprets Manet’s masterpiece “A Bar at the Folies-Bergère” by changing the setting to a photographer’s studio. In Manet’s painting, the central figure, a barmaid with downcast eyes, is the object of a gaze from a male customer who is seen reflected in the mirror behind her. The customer is located in the upper right corner in an impossible perspective that simulates the one occupied by the viewer of the painting. The key features are the male gaze by itself, the relationship towards the female and the viewer as an active, involved onlooker.
When Wall composed his photograph, he set his camera, seen as a mirror reflection, at the center; the woman stands at the left, coolly studying the camera and the photographer beside it. The camera and its operator become the central subject of the picture and the object of feminine scrutiny. Wall converted the receding globe lights of the Folies-Bergère bar into regularly positioned overhead bulbs, deepening the space in the photo as Manet did in his painting. The beauty of the seven-foot-long glowing image enthralls even viewers unfamiliar with the art-historical allusions.
Dead Soviet Soldiers in Afghanistan 1992
Wall created an elaborate battle scene based on the Soviet Union’s conflict with Afghanistan in the 1980s. The image has a strangely old-fashioned look, as if just exhumed from a war museum. Until you notice that this is a macabre vision: the dead Soviet soldiers strewn about are all awake — laughing, crying and fingering their gruesome wounds.
A Sudden Gust of Wind (After Hokusai) 1993
“A Sudden Gust of Wind” is based on a famous Hokusai print in which several travelers are buffeted by unexpected turbulence that sends the sheets of a manuscript spiraling through the air. He used more than a hundred shots in the painstaking composition of the final 12-foot-long picture.
Here is the Hokusai wood print:
Documentary-style photographs of old, ordinary and neglected spaces and cleaning areas are an ongoing theme in Wall’s work. The works entitled “Diagonal Composition” explore the still-life genre with inspiration from early twentieth-century art, particularly the abstract images of artists such as El Lissitzky, Theo van Doesburg, and Alexander Rodchenko, whose paintings typically comprised grids of horizontal, vertical and diagonal lines.
They also invite a social reading. Capturing the long passage of time that has scarred and degraded these surfaces, they evoke traces of lives lived by unknown inhabitants. Wall focuses on ‘the un attributed anonymous poetry of the world’.
Diagonal Composition No 2 1998
Simple as this image is, perspective, composition and staging is as elaborate as in any of Wall’s works. This is a relatively small and bare picture of the corner of a sink, some sort of rough wooden shelf next to it, and a pale green wall. On the extreme right a small finger of 1/4” plywood lays on top of a white rubber glove. It is placed at an acute angle to the main thrust of the sink. Just left of center, the dark side of the sink produces diagonal lines. The beige linoleum above has traces of glue around it, breaking up the straight lines dominated by the pine molding, the diagonal trend of the work top, the shelf, the linoleum and the plywood stick.
Unrivaled in its technical complexity, the “Flooded Grave” is the product of nearly two years of work. The strange, poetic, hallucinatory and surrealist image shows an open grave in a sodden cemetery filled not only with water but also with orange starfish and sea urchins. It comprises images taken in two Vancouver cemeteries that are seamlessly merged with photographs of a living aquatic system created in his studio.
Wall clearly enjoys going to extraordinary lengths. “The artistry of doing something is just fascinating,” he says. “If you don’t like the artistry, why are you an artist? It’s fun.” For “The Flooded Grave,” he kept an oversize custom-built aquarium in his studio for more than six months. The concept of the photograph was to depict a watery world within a freshly dug grave. Wall retained two marine biologists who fished out sea anemones, sea urchins and octopuses from a single offshore spot. “I wanted to make it just like a moment in time undersea, not a compendium or display,” he explains. “I wanted to make it as real as I could.”
After “Invisible Man” by Ralph Ellison, the Prologue 1999-2000
Ralph Ellison’s 1952 novel “Invisible Man” centers on a black man who, during a street riot, falls into a forgotten room in the cellar of a large apartment building in New York and decides to stay there, living hidden away. The novel begins with a description of the protagonist’s subterranean home, emphasizing the ceiling covered with 1,369 illegally connected light bulbs.
The image is an over-the-top re-creation of the light-festooned basement dwelling of Ellison’s character. The use of photomontages is invisible without being truly hidden. There is much detail and position is everything in “Invisible Man”. Its incredibly cluttered and overcrowded nature gives a claustrophobic sense that the whole place is caving in. Yet the creation provides an odd feeling of space and room within the restricted confines. Some viewers felt the picture has a racist aspect since the man is Black.
Wall devoted a full year to “In front of a nightclub” — a picture of young people standing outside a Vancouver club at night. The shoot took so long because the club Wall found, on a heavily trafficked thoroughfare, could not be photographed as he wished. There was no place for him to stand with his tripod and large-format camera.
So he had the club exterior – the columns and grille, the facade, gum-spotted sidewalk and concrete curb – reconstructed in a studio. One assistant worked for six months constructing the set. “Of course, you can’t see everything he did, but that doesn’t matter,” Wall says. “There is dirt and moss growing in the cracks where the bottom of the building is crumbling, but you can’t see it. The discoloration of the sidewalk is extremely accurate, and it took many layers of application. Wall placed his strobes in the precise locations occupied by the street lamps and other lights that shine opposite the real nightclub.
Concealed in a van with blacked-out windows, he and his assistants parked outside the actual club on several nights and, using a telephoto lens, took 300 or 400 snapshots of the kids gathered there. Wall scrutinized the photos for characters and clustering he liked and then hired 40 extras from a casting agency. Dividing them into two groups and giving them general directions, he photographed them over the course of a month on alternate nights. (“People’s metabolism is different at night, their coloring is different,” he explains.) For each group he finished with only one frame that satisfied him. “You only need one,” he points out. Using digital technology, he combined the two photos of the crowd with a third one of the building into his final picture.
Here is how the story goes: On a damp winter morning, 20 weather-beaten men waited at a bleak corner in east Vancouver. Jeff Wall stands behind a tripod-mounted camera, patiently waiting for his vision of men waiting at a cash corner to come true. He had hired the laborers at an actual cash corner where the men normally hung out and bused them to the shooting location, a cash corner stand-in. The men were waiting for Wall to determine that the rain had become too heavy, the light too bright or the prevailing mood too restless for him to obtain the feeling of suspended activity and diffused expectancy that he sought in the picture.
He was prepared to come here, day after day, for several weeks. On any given morning, typically after three hours elapsed, he would adjourn until the next day, authorizing the men to receive their paychecks of 82 Canadian dollars and get back into the bus. “Men Waiting” is a small-scale Wall production in spite of its cast of 20 laborers plus Wall himself, assistants and equipment, its two-week shoot and on-the-street location.
Overpass:
The risk in these “cinematographic” pictures is that Wall will overly manipulate the laborers, transforming them into lifeless puppets. Asked how he related to the day laborers, he revealed: “My pictures are obviously related to my own life. Why would I be interested in them otherwise? I’m not a sociologist. I must identify with these figures, even though I often don’t like them, I don’t even feel that sympathetic to them sometimes. But I must identify with them in some way because they keep coming into pictures that I want to make.” Wall was fascinated by “the physical animal energy that is present on the street and waiting to be disposed of.”
The Storyteller:
He likes to plan for all contingencies and command a situation start to finish. Yet he has chosen an art form that is not controllable. Unforeseen events will occur. Some events are beneficial, such as the recompose of “Man Waiting”, which, even so, took several days to create:
- In spite of his elaborate planning, he changed the frame of the picture. One of the reasons he liked the location he had selected was a scraggly little tree (in the middle right of the final image) that had shed its leaves for winter. Further down the street was another tree, a giant fir (in the extreme right of the final image). After taking five days to find his camera position, he concluded that he couldn’t eliminate the unasked-for fir from the picture, but by including only part of the trunk, he would minimize it.
- On one of the first days of the shoot, the rain increased, and several of the men huddled beneath the evergreen for shelter. When that happened, Wall realized that the fir had a role to play in the picture after all. He changed the camera setup to encompass the entire trunk, allowing the crowd of men to continue to the edge of the picture and, by implication, beyond. “That tree bothered me all along,” he told me. “If it hadn’t rained hard, I might never have noticed it. Now I’ll just include it. It’s stronger for it.”
Throughout the shoot, he would perceive undirected movements — an umbrella stuck in the mud, a hooded head lowered — and choose to keep them. Speaking softly on a walkie-talkie, he would ask his three assistants to adjust the position and behavior of the waiting men. The final picture was structured by his artistic sense, but it was also animated by the unpredictability of his living subjects. “You can’t make these things up,” he said.
Mimic:
Techniques
He aspired to make photographs that could be constructed and experienced the way paintings are. “Most photographs cannot get looked at very often. They get exhausted. Great photographers have done it [their masterpiece] on the fly. It [the on the fly opportunity] doesn’t happen that often. I just wasn’t interested in doing that [the on the fly shooting]. I didn’t want to spend my time running around trying to find an event that could be made into a picture that would be good.”
Insomnia:
The art that he liked best, from the full-length portraits of Velázquez and Manet to the drip paintings of Jackson Pollock and the floor pieces of Carl Andre, engaged the viewer on a lifelike human scale. The paintings could be walked up to (or, in Andre’s case, onto) and moved away from. They held their own, on a wall or in a room. “If painting can be that scale and be effective, then a photograph ought to be effective at that size, too,” Wall concluded.
Jell-O:
In Spain, “I saw the Velázquez, Goya, Titian — I loved it and wanted to be part of it somehow,” he said. “Every time the bus stopped, you were looking out the window, and there was a sign in a light box. I began to think, it’s luminous, Velázquez was luminous and I’ll try it.” When he emerged in 1978 as a fully formed artist, he presented photographs that demanded equal status with paintings. In sheer size, they were measured in feet, not inches.
He dislikes the way photographs were typically exhibited as small prints. “I don’t like the traditional 8 by 10,” he says. “They were done that size as displays for prints to run in books. It’s too shrunken, too compressed. When you’re making things to go on a wall, as I do, that seems too small.” Many of his images exceed several feet in any direction. Some are over 10 or even 15 feet wide.
An Octopus:
He desires the sharpness of large formats. The sharpness of such an image comes close to what the ever-adjusting and compensating eye perceives. Moreover, the size of his final images requires sharpness. This precision usually eludes the documentary photographer who catches fleeing, split-second moments. We know the grainy, blurry images of Robert Frank, Weegee, Cartier-Bresson and other documentary photographers. We somehow deduct these deficits are signs of authenticity. Although grainy, blurry pictures may convey a desired mood, they do not reflect authenticity.
Some Beans:
In his early methodology, Wall sidestepped the challenge haunting the street photographers: how to impose a technically satisfying formal composition on a subject captured instantaneously. Rather than hunt for material to photograph, he initially manufactured all his subject matter in the studio.
Very soon he moved out of the studio to shoot landscapes and street scenes on location. He looks for “the indeterminate American look”, which he says he can find by not looking for anything in particular. “You have to forget about the idea of the spirit of the place,” he says. “It’s one of the big, consoling myths of people who live nowhere.”
Using a large-format camera on a tripod severely constrains street photography. Beginning in 1982, he circumvented the problem by re-create subjects using that he calls “cinematographic photography.” Typically, he would see something, often a small event with compressed human drama and political overtones. Rather than snap it, he would go home, think about this glimpse of everyday life or popular culture. If he wants to proceed, he hires performers to re-enact the scene.
Stumbling:
But staging a street scene and then photographing it as if it had “really” occurred: Wasn’t that a pretense that betrayed the honest parameters of photography? Shouldn’t a photograph be a document of things the photographer found in the world? “Not necessarily”, Wall says. “What an artist could do with photography wasn’t bounded by the documentary impulse”. He pointed out that in the visual arts only photographers and cinematographers are criticized for staging rather than directly recording scenes. Other arts always offer re-creations of the outside world.
By the late 1970s, Wall worked furiously on the light-box transparencies that still characterize his artistic career. His images of the late 1970s and 1980s were enormous transparencies lit from behind by fluorescent bulbs, a “light box” format that was typically used for advertising. Like a commercial light box, a Wall photograph grabbed you with its glowing presence and, unlike an advertisement, held viewers with its richness of detail and harmony.
The Vampires’ Picnic:
His use of a light-box format derived from advertising and might have suggested a critical analysis of consumer culture. “I was not especially interested in doing a critique of advertising — it was an accident.” His concern with the physical beauty of his images also set him apart from most of the contemporary avant-garde photographers and closer to the painters he revered.
Cardplayers:
He was ready in late 1978 for his first one-man show. Presenting his exhibition as an “installation” rather than as a photography show, he placed “The Destroyed Room” in the storefront window of the gallery, enclosing it in a plasterboard wall. You could see it only from outside, where, especially after dark, it resembled an actual vandalized room. Before the show closed, the piece was purchased by the National Gallery of Canada, a great send-off to his career.
Digitalization and Special Effects
Wall no longer restricts himself to light boxes. Over the last decade, he acquired four small buildings in a convenient if drug-infested downtown Vancouver district. There, helped by two full-time assistants and others as needed, he develop and print all of his work. He began making large, beautifully gradated black-and-white photographs on paper in the mid-’90s and more recently inkjet color prints. Many recent images, such as “Men waiting”, are presented in black and white, breaking his past reliance on color.
Volunteer:
In his studio he recently staged a vampires’ lawn picnic and, extravagantly, a conversation among resurrected Soviet soldiers slain in Afghanistan. He imported Hollywood special-effects consultants as part of his team. “I used up a lot of blood,” he says. He quickly grew tired of these outlandish subjects, but computer technology remains an important part of his artistic arsenal. By converting his film exposures into digital files, Wall can then superimpose them invisibly and endlessly, often assembling a final image on film from many different shots.
Citizen:
Critique
Not everyone loves Jeff Wall’s work. Some find his obsessive micro management plain out of sight, not to mention a monumental waste of resources. Others find that his work lacks in depth and simply consists of elaborate snap-shots. Here is Walter Robinson:
- “The critics love his light boxes, which I think are obnoxious, and say his photos are beautiful, when I think they look like big snapshots — but I guess that’s the point of their being so laboriously constructed.”
- “Many of his images, much reproduced, are less than thrilling. ‘A Sudden Gust of Wind (after Hokusai)’ is a yawn, as is his illustration of a scene from Ralph Ellison’s ‘Invisible Man’, a set piece showing a shabby apartment with hundreds of light bulbs on the ceiling. ‘Dead Troops Talk’, a scene of fallen soldiers in Afghanistan, is in poor taste, to say the least.”
Other critics chime in:
He is an intellectually ambitious, morally earnest perfectionist navigating through the shoals, fevers and chills of avant-gardism. A control freak who smothers the life out of his picture, hung up on his process, he is seduced by the elaborateness of his techniques and the gorgeousness of his images. The effort to make viewers think hard in a Modernist way about the gaps and distortions inherent in perception is ignored.
A Fight on the Sidewalk:
His shift into narrative representation and Pop versions of subject matter in the light boxes was a strategy to make conceptual art more communicative. It eventually became so grand and so glamorous, aimed so much at redeeming pictorial traditions, that the original intention was lost. Wall tries to do as a 21st-century photographer what 19th-century painters like Manet and Seurat did in their elaborate depictions of contemporary life which is a historically absurd undertaking. “His claim to be a new history painter is very problematic for me,” a critic says. “The pictures have become very overwhelmingly spectacular objects. There is a kind of Wagnerian Gesamtkunstwerk quality. You have the set and the narrative; all we are waiting for is the sound.”
Me
What do I think? First, to me it is impossible not to admire the immense creativity of his visions and execution. Second, the dedication of spending weeks or years to find the perfect or near perfect image is a lesson to every photographer. Third, the combination of many expressive means, from large format cameras to digitalization to light boxes and huge prints with the references to other art forms is quite humbling; at least it is to me.
Just about everything he does makes sense – if you are him. His techniques are not for everyone but they should provide food for thought to any photographer. After all, providing food for thought does not impose the techniques on anyone. Although his influence on individual photographers is quite substantial, I won’t adopt his ways in my own work except as an inspiration to try new things.
Milk:
My reaction to what counts – his images – is mixed. Admiring what it took to get there is not the same as falling in love with the result. The extreme staging leaves me with a feeling of aloofness and lack of spontaneousness. It is too deliberate even if he intended it that way. Some of his subjects leave me wondering if they are worth the attention.
What exactly does “Men Waiting” tell us? What do the links to Delacroix, Manet or Ellison contribute to the images? Are the subjects “better” or more interesting because of these links? I doubt it. I find, for instance, “Picture for Women” to be of little interest, Manet or not. “The Flooded Grave” is impressive in its many contradictions – but why? A few subjects are, to me, utterly banal and uninteresting. Perhaps the answer to that is, so are those of others avant-gardists including, say, Andy Warhol with whom, I think, Wall has more in common than he has with Delacroix.
I do like quite a few images for what they are, not for the elaborate staging or art links: “Outside the Nightclub” is great, as are the “Milk” and “Mimic” images. I enjoy the “Octopus” and “Some Beans” scene and the “Sudden Gust of Wind”. The original “Diagonal Composition” is much more interesting than the later No. 2. “The Vampires Picnic” is intriguing indeed.
I do not believe painting, cinematography and photography are of the same pictorial tradition, not in execution or in vision. Ultimately a photograph is the result of releasing a shutter, freezing a moment. That’s the uniqueness of photography. Combining a bunch of such moments into a new image perhaps resembles the brush strokes of a painting. It still does not change that frozen, unique moment.
Previous and Next
Here are more posts from this blog that deal with photography. The posts are newer as you go down in the list:
- About Photo Documentaries
- Susan Sontag wrote in “From On Photography”
- On Reality – Part 1 – Elements of Light
- About Stanley Kubrick, the Photographer
- On Reality – Part 2 – Photo Journalism
- On Reality – Part 3 – More on Photojournalism
- On Reality – Part 3a – Those faked, staged famous photographs in Part 3?
- On Reality – Part 3a(Update) – Famous Faked Photos and How to Make Them
- On Gordon Parks- Segregation, Hollywood, Fashion and more….
- Can Celebrities shoot?
- On Reality – Part 4 – Remembering Joe Rosenthal. On War and Photography
- On Reality – Part 5 – How Perceptions and Illusions destroy Reality
- On Ethics – Part 1 – Just a point of view?
- On Reality 6 Preview: Visionary Photographers
Explore and enjoy.
Memes, Awards and The 50 Post Milestone
April 17, 2007
A recent comment on this blog questioned whether a meme is a blessing or a curse. Having no idea what a meme might be, I was relieved that it was Fencer, a blogger I hold in the highest esteem, who wrote this mysterious comment. Obviously, whatever the curse might be, it couldn’t be all that bad. And who doesn’t want a blessing?
Intrigued, I did a bit of research on what on earth this meme thing might be. Of course, I found out I’m totally out of touch with recent science. You esteemed readers probably have known about memes for years. After doing my research, it seemed to me that memes are a rather harmless variation on pyramid schemes (minus the money aspect). Well, that sounds a bit suspicious. You send someone a meme and that person will, in turn, send a meme on to a specified number, such as 5, of others, who in turn passes the torch on to (now) 25 others, who in turn…. you got it? Eventually every soul on earth will be memed, unless the meme succumbs to a timely death as pyramid schemes tend to do.
The memes create clusters of people with common interests and/or skills. In this particular case, Fencer awarded me a meme called the “Thinking Blogger Award”. The idea is that your blog is sufficiently intriguing to earn this reward from someone who earned the same award from someone else. I am grateful to Fencer for bestowing this honor on me.
Should I choose to accept the award (which of course I will), the next step is to 1) follow the general guidelines for the award, and 2) pass the torch to five other bloggers who “make me think”. Now, in my case, passing the torch is a hard one because I really only read a smattering of blogs. Then, I apparently have to think when reading these blogs. Ouch!
My Nominations
Who should I nominate? After pondering that for a while, weighing different possibilities, ranking various factors, consulting my Scottish Terrier Angus on the matter (who couldn’t care less since no food seemed to be involved), sleeping on the matter (twisting and turning) and worrying about making a fool of myself, here are my nominations:
- Suresh Gundappa and his meditative blog. It’s a gentle blog that does make me think.
- A Swedish blog in which a mother and a daughter collaborate. High in emotional content, the blog covers the frustrations and horrors of a close relationship under the gun. No names are available and the blog is in Swedish.
- Jonathan Schwarz’ blog A Tiny Revolution because it does make me think. This is a pretty big time blog that may ignore, or not, this nomination. So be it. It’ll be interesting to find out.
- Odiyya’s blog The Conscious Earth out of Vancouver, BC provides great thoughts on Global Warming and various environmental issues. He also has a good taste in books. His movie favorites are not quite up to snuff in my book. Great blog, though.
- Finally, I nominate another pretty big time political blog: Blogs for Bush. It is safe to say I disagree with almost all the views expressed in this blog. But the requirement for nominating blogs is simply “they make me think”. That this blog does. I won’t detail my thoughts. This is a family friendly blog.
The Rules (for those nominated)
Here are the rules for accepting the nomination if, and only if, you are nominated. Fulfill the requirements; then you can display the “Award” button and pass on your own five selections:
- If you are nominated, write a post linking to 5 blogs that make you think.
- Link to this post so that people can easily find the exact origin of the meme.
- Optional: Display the ‘Thinking Blogger Award’ linking to the post you wrote.
To those nominated: Pass the torch by nominating (tagging) five blogs with real merits, i.e. relevant and interesting content which does make you think: be it good, bad or ugly thoughts.
There’s a slightly coercive element to this meme with its tagging/chain mail mechanism. It is up to the nominated blog to decide whether or not to participate. In my case, I think this is a way to honor a few blogs that made me think although I don’t necessarily agree with the blogs’ ideas. Thus, the pluses outweigh the one minus, in my view.
The 50 Post Milestone
This is the fiftieth post published in this blog. That means an average of a little less than 1 1/2 post per week since the blog was created in August of 2006. That may be below the posting rate of many blogs, but my posts are generally much bigger than average – up to 40 pages in print format.
I started the blog as a vehicle to share my thoughts on being an artist in the 21st century. That still is a major driver, but I quickly veered into new territory where this blog is divided into three major areas: Artist life, Photography and Politics. There are four parallel series of essays: On Reality, On Ethics, On the War on Terror and On Global Warming.
The Reality essays cover art, artistry and photography with a touch of science. The Ethics part explores similar issues but adds politics and, of course, Ethics. The War on Terror essays wonder how we got into the mess of Iraq and why we claim to fight terror when in fact we do not. Global Warming is today’s prime subject. I hope to raise awareness of its potentially catastrophic impact.
From a real modest start, this blog has attracted well over 30,000 readers. That still is quite modest compared to the big guys, but to me it is amazing and humbling so many have found the blog and perhaps got some benefit out of it.
Here is a link to a Table of Content for the blog. Enjoy and my gratitude to each and every, past or future, reader. Do keep me on my toes by coming back. Give feedback by commenting as much as you can.
Thanks, Karl
On Reality 6 Preview: Visionary Photographers
April 11, 2007
Vision, vision, where art thou? Calling it the Vision Thing, George Bush the elderly had no idea. Luckily GHB was not a photographer because to us, visions are crucial. In contrast to the Bush Presidents, an artist has to have not only a vision (know what the heck you do) but also a path to make the vision into actual art.
Leaving the Bushes to their fate, this post is a preview of the upcoming “Mysteries of Photography” essay which covers a great many, well, mysteries of photography. This essay should come out in a week or two. Lately I’ve written a lot about the War on Terror and Global Warming. I wanted to get back for a while to my real passion which happens to be photography. I’m a pro documentary and fine art photographer, after all. This preview gives you a first look at a few of the full essay’s many subjects.
Photos in this preview are by myself, Ansel Adams, Robert Capa, Henri Cartier-Bresson and Leni Riefenstahl. How is that for a mixed company?
The Mystery of Photography
The mystery of a great photograph is why and how it touches the photographer and an audience. Such a photograph is not just a piece of paper treated with light and chemicals or covered with ink applied using a stream of computer bits. It truly is a piece of magic, as is any real piece of art.
It is often easy to look at a photo and exclaim “this is a great shot”. It’s much harder to say why that is the case. Then it’s even harder to go out and actually shoot a great photo, especially if you don’t know what makes a good photo in the first place.
The mysterious magic of a great photo does not just happen in a random fashion. You don’t suddenly take a walk and come back with a great photo. For one thing, you need to take a camera along, meaning you have some purpose which is a good start. Next, bringing that camera along may be subject to a deliberate and soul searching artistic vision. Then the probability of returning with some decent shots improves tremendously. Therein lays the subject of this essay.
The Metaphysical Process
To any photographer or artist, this soul searching vision is the life line. Consider Ansel Adams versus Henri Cartier-Bresson, both masters but with hugely different visions in place. One was a large 
format nature photographer and technical guru, the other a Leica street photographer and painter. One was deliberate in approach to the nth degree, the other hoped to encounter the split-second Decisive Moment. One took hours to set up a shot, the other achieved success in fractions of seconds. One spent endless time in the darkroom; the other viewed a simple camera as the principal tool. Both are legends. Both produced magic. Either approach is valid.
However different these two approaches might seem, they share features such as: their images present a multi dimensional, engaging, complex image, modified to the specific, personal vision of the artist. Hang on for details on this somewhat bold statement.
Be Artistic
Creativity is about you being creative. Creativity is your mental process of discovering new ideas or concepts, or finding new associations between existing ideas or concepts. Creativity derives from divine intervention, cognitive processes, spirituality, social environments, your personality traits and chance. It associates with your genius, mental illness and humor. So goes one definition.
Artistry has two components. The first is creativity. Creativity provides visionary ideas. The second is innovation. Innovation provides the means for creative ideas to become actual works of art. Most artists create art that is unique and very different from that of the next guy. Yet the basic thought patterns tend to be similar. Adams and Henri Cartier-Bresson created art with almost nothing in common. But read some of their thoughts on their art and you will find great similarities, not in everything but in spirit:
Ansel Adams said:
- In my mind’s eye, I visualize how a particular…. sight and feeling will appear on a print. If it excites me, there is a good chance it will make a good photograph. It is an intuitive sense, an ability that comes from a lot of practice.
- All I can do in my writing is to stimulate a certain amount of thought, clarify some technical facts and date my work. But when I preach sharpness, brilliancy, scale, etc., I am just mouthing words, because no words can really describe those terms and qualities it takes the actual print to say, “Here it is.”
- When I’m ready to make a photograph, I think I quite obviously see in my minds eye something that is not literally there in the true meaning of the word. I’m interested in something which is built up from within, rather than just extracted from without.
- Simply look with perceptive eyes at the world about you, and trust to your own reactions and convictions. Ask yourself: “Do these subjects move me to feel, think and dream? Can I visualize a print – my own personal statement of what I feel and want to convey – from the subject before me?
- I have often thought that if photography were difficult in the true sense of the term -meaning that the creation of a simple photograph would entail as much time and effort as the production of a good watercolor or etching – there would be a vast improvement in total output. The sheer ease with which we can produce a superficial image often leads to creative disaster.
A vision is not an analytical notion. It very much contains an emotional aspect which reflects and synchronizes where you are mentally and emotionally. You cannot fake a happy documentary 
unless you actually are happy. The emotional context also reflects your connection with a particular subject. If you hate clear cutting, that should be reflected in your images of clear cutting. One reason your emotional stance is important goes back to another vital concept: honesty. If you can’t convince yourself the vision is truly honest and a reflection of your innermost feelings, then it is unlikely you will convince anyone else. You end up being a fake.
Henri Cartier-Bresson said:
- They asked me: “‘How do you make your pictures?” I was puzzled and I said, “I don’t know, it’s not important.”
- I prowled the streets all day,feeling very strung up and ready to pounce, determined to ‘trap’ life – to preserve life in the act of living. Above all, I craved to seize the whole essence, in the confines of one single photograph, of some situation that was in the process of unrolling itself before my eyes.
- This recognition, in real life, of a rhythm of surfaces, lines, and values is for me the essence of photography; composition should be a constant of preoccupation, being a simultaneous coalition – an organic coordination of visual elements.
- If the photographer succeeds in reflecting the exterior as well as interior world, his subjects appear as “in real life.” In order to achieve this, the photographer must respect the mood, become integrated into the environment, avoid all the tricks that destroy human truth, and also make the subject of the photo forget the camera and the person using it. Complicated equipment and lights get in the way of naive, un-posed subjects. What is more fleeting than the expression on a face?
- To me, photography is the simultaneous recognition, in a fraction of a second, of the significance of an event, as well as of a precise organization of forms which give that event its proper expression. I believe that through the act of living, the discovery of oneself is made concurrently with the discovery of the world around us which can mould us, but which can also be affected by us. A balance must be established between these two worlds- the one inside us and the one outside us. As the result of a constant reciprocal process, both these worlds come to form a single one. And it is this world that we must communicate. But this takes care only of the content of the picture. For me, content cannot be separated from form. By form, I mean the rigorous organization of the interplay of surfaces, lines and values. It is in this organization alone that our conceptions and emotions become concrete and communicable. In photography, visual organization can stem only from a developed instinct.
To both photographers, the making of a photograph is a spiritual act, an inner conviction and a desire to abstract essence beyond the material world. Neither of them mentions tools or techniques except to say those are not important. I’d imagine they would not agree on whether a particular photograph is great or not. I’m sure they had vastly different approaches on just about any lower level photographic technique. But the basic creative thought is quite similar.
Creative Artists
Creativity is never static; it evolves in different directions and changes over time. Take Pablo Picasso and his periods: the Blue, Rose, African, Analytical Cubism, Synthetic Cubism, Classicism and Surreal Periods. Igor Stravinsky, shocking audiences, covered a vast musical landscape with his Russian, Neoclassical and Serial Phases. Arnold Schoenberg went from late Romanticism to Twelve Tone Music without stumbling one bit although perhaps his audience did.
In the same vein, Cartier-Bresson covered Cubism, Surrealism, went through an African Period, returned to Surrealism, became the Leica symbol in his cross-Europe Period, moved into photo journalism, founded Magnum Photos (with, among others Robert Capa) leading to his Indian, Chinese, Mexican and East Indies Periods followed by refining the Decisive Moment idea. Then he abandoned photography in favor of painting for the last 30 years of his life.
Leni Riefenstahl was a dancer, actress, film producer, director and a photographer. Starting as a dancer, she moved on to starring in the German Mountain soap operas, climbed her way to her own production company, became a Nazi (later denied), a friend of Hitler, covered Nazi Party conventions and the Berlin Olympics as a documentary film maker and an artistic symbol of Nazi propaganda. Her film work was visually and artistically stunning. After a short imprisonment following the war, she became a Non-Nazi and gravitated into photography; no doubt a camera was friendlier than post war movie distributors. She achieved renewed fame with her African photos. In her later 70s, she learnt to scuba dive and turned to underwater photography (and some film work). An infamous liar, social climber and self serving turncoat, she was, to her death at 101, an incredibly talented and multi faceted artist.
Other artists stayed in more or less one arena: Robert Capa was the War Photographer. Ansel Adams was the f/64 Yosemite Valley Genius. Diane Arbus fame came from disturbing portraits of society’s fringe. Robert Mapplethorpe showed an in-your-face, explicit homoerotic scene. Cindy Sherman staged portraits, often starring herself. Annie Leibovitz made inventive, staged and much published portraits. Ralph Gibson redefined the photographic language of symbolic simplicity.
Other one subject artists: Ingmar Bergman introduced his brand of intuitive existentialism and misunderstood Lutheran faith to an unsuspecting audience. Olivier Messiaen made strange music resembling birdsong. Rolling Stones “Can’t Get No Satisfaction” in spite of trying for the last 42 years. The Beatles quit. Richard Wagner locked in High German Mysticism and Romance. Haydn and Mozart found their grove and mostly stayed there. Ernest Hemingway’s language of concise clarity never changed.
All of these artists are or were hugely creative. All practiced their own version of art. I doubt many of them bothered putting vision statements down on paper but they certainly had a clear understanding of their art. Without creativity and the associated vision, they would not be the legends they all are. Luckily, they also knew how to share the results of their visions with their audience which leads to the next topic: from vision to results.
That’s it for now! Thanks, Karl
Previous and Next
Here are more posts from this blog that deal with photography. The posts are newer as you go down in the list:
- About Photo Documentaries
- Susan Sontag wrote in “From On Photography”
- On Reality – Part 1 – Elements of Light
- About Stanley Kubrick, the Photographer
- On Reality – Part 2 – Photo Journalism
- On Reality – Part 3 – More on Photojournalism
- On Reality – Part 3a – Those faked, staged famous photographs in Part 3?
- On Reality – Part 3a(Update) – Famous Faked Photos and How to Make Them
- On Gordon Parks- Segregation, Hollywood, Fashion and more….
- Can Celebrities shoot?
- On Reality – Part 4 – Remembering Joe Rosenthal. On War and Photography
- On Reality – Part 5 – How Perceptions and Illusions destroy Reality
- On Ethics – Part 1 – Just a point of view?
Quick News 3 – Finally a Glimpse of Daylight
April 3, 2007
Bill Clinton never really acted on it although Al Gore was right in the house. George Bush deep-sixed it to the wrath of the world and eventually the Americans. The US continued being the largest emitter of greenhouse gases, causing massive, unregulated contributions to warming temperatures around the globe. These emissions, if continued, will have catastrophic impacts. A new IPPC report from the UN will provide details by April 6th 2007.
Since I started covering Global Warming about a year ago, a major point of mine was that Global Warming could be dealt with in the same manner that sulphur dioxide pollution was successfully reduced to acceptable levels in the 1970s. That reduction happened because Congress passed Clean Air Acts. Emissions dropped by more than 50% compared to the 1970 level. Acid rain and health issues became much more manageable in most parts of the world.
The current problem is that EPA, which led the sulphur reductions, refused to do the same for green house gases. EPA cites some smoke screen excuses. The real reason was that George Bush directed EPA to ignore the existing Clean Air Act. This was part of Bush’s general denial of Global Warming. That denial led not only to muffling EPA but also to the suppression of facts about Global Warming to both Congress and the American people. Recent house hearings disclosed this misinformation and the Administration’s blatant lies.
The issue of the EPA refusing to regulate CO2 using the Clean Air Act and its mandatory limits became a case before the US Supreme Court. The suit was brought by 11 states and a few cities. The complete case goes back to 1999. The Supreme Court heard the case in late November 2006. We now (April 2nd 2007) have a decision.
A Glimpse of Daylight
April 2nd, 2007, the Supreme Court of the US ruled in a split decision that EPA must enforce the Clean Air Act on greenhouse gases originating from auto emissions. The court further ruled that EPA cannot ignore its obligation to regulate greenhouse gases in general unless they have a scientific basis for doing so.
This decision, if acted on, is a major and frankly surprising step forward towards reducing greenhouse gas emissions from the US. It is a very well deserved step backwards for George W. Bush and his do-nothing policy on Global Warming. No doubt the Administration will play a game of resistance and delays but it appears the case is quite solid. Do or you will be sued.
The Sulphur Case of the 1970s
The US passed the Clean Air Act in 1963, followed by a major amendment in 1970. The 1970 Act was amended and extended several times up till 1990. Ronald Reagan did his best to ignore the Act. The Candidate Bush promised mandatory reduction targets for SO2, CO2, mercury and nitrogen oxide. The President Bush forgot that promise immediately after taking office. VP Dick Cheney is doing all he can to ROLL BACK the Clean Air Act as a favor to his buddies.
The 1970 law empowers EPA to establish and enforce emission standards for certain airborne pollutants. These standards were quite demanding and in some cases overly ambitious. The auto industry, for instance, required extensions due to technical and economic issues. The law has four main parts: 1) a national air quality standard, 2) a performance standard specifying limits for different industries and regions, 3) limits specific to cars (90% reduction of certain emissions), 4) rules for engaging states in the enforcement of the law.
At the time, acid rain was quite an issue, destroying forests, fresh water supplies and soils. Acid rain is largely caused by industrial emissions of SO2. Power plants and the pulp and paper industries are examples of SO2 polluters. These industries faced major capital expenses to reduce emissions to the set standards. Typical remedies are elaborate scrubbers attached to smoke stacks. These are expensive, both as capital investment and as operating costs.
Emission trading is a related scheme: a polluting facility is issued a license to emit a certain level of pollutants. Usually, after installing clean up equipment, the facility can sell the surplus part of the license. This is similar to CERs but with the important difference that the emission trading is not a subsidy from one nation to some non-regulated country. It is a US company to a US company trade.
The 1970 Act resulted in major reductions in many polluting emissions. SO2, for instance, turned almost immediately from a rapid increase in the ’sixties to an equally rapid decline, starting very soon after the Act was passed. SO2 emissions today are only 25% of what they would have been without the Act. The Act was expensive to industry but very friendly to the environment. Here is the impact on SO2 emissions:
SO2 emissions spiked in the 1940s, no doubt as wartime production of aircraft carriers and tanks took precedence over pollution. By the mid 1950s, SO2 emissions had returned to typical levels but started a rapid growth that peaked in 1970-73. Acid rain and general pollution that actually killed people caused the passage of the Clean Air Act amendment of 1970. The CAA imposed mandatory caps on SO2 emissions and an emission trading system soon followed. Many other countries, notably the UK, following the leadership of the US under, believe it or not, Mr. Richard Nixon, arch Republican.
Several major industries were forced to invest heavily in cleanup equipment, mostly smoke stack scrubbers. It was expensive. It caused difficulties. Industry whined. Some obsolete plants closed. Did it cause serious damage to the economy? The answer is most assuredly no. Did it cause serious suffering? It definitely did not. Did it produce opportunities? Yes it did. Was industry in better shape afterwards? You bet.
Here is what happened. After 10 years of mandatory caps, emissions were down 17% compared to the 1970 level (upper percentages in the graph). The 1990 reduction reached 24% and today SO2 emissions are half the 1970 level. Compared to a case of continued increases in emissions at the trend rate of the 1960s (dotted yellow line in the graph), emissions were down 36% compared to such a “stay the course” trend. That extrapolates to 52% by 1990 and 76% today (lower percentages in the graph).
Those reductions are very close to what is required to eliminate the issue of Global Warming. Simply apply the same tools of caps and trade to GHGs. Question why this can’t be done. Write your Congressman, Senator, Deputy or Representative in the Bundestag, Congress, Senate, Sabha, Parliament, Diet, Folketing, Knesset, Eduskunta, Duma, Bundesrat, Seima, Assembly, Storting, Council, Riksdag or Politburo. Let’s get it done.
The SO2 situation is not identical to that of GHGs. Resolving GHGs and Global Warming is more complex. The SO2 issue was localized to relatively few and well defined industries. The villains of Global Warming cut through far more parts of society throughout the entire world. The SO2 spike in emissions largely lasted ten-fifteen years, not 250 years. The technology and economics are more complex in the case of Global Warming. Sadly, the political attitudes are far less proactive now than in the 1970s.
But no one can tell me it is impossible, crippling or unnecessary to take on and win the battle of Global Warming. All resources needed are present and accounted for: technology, science, R&D, political tools and structures, labor, experts, bloggers, champions, stakeholders, financial resources and real life organizations exist today. It’s just a matter of lightning the fire..
The Current Battle
The issue of the EPA refusing to regulate CO2 using the CAA and its mandatory limits is now a case before the US Supreme Court. The case is brought by 11 states and a few cities. The case goes back to 1999 and was heard before the Supreme Court in late November 2006. Transcripts from the hearing reveals total confusion, misunderstandings and an apparent unwillingness by the court to take on such a “complex issue”. Source: Slate and others.
Here is a piece of news that came in from Bloomberg late November 2006:
Nobel Laureates Pushing Bush to Act on Global Warming
[Nov 20 2006] Environmentalists concerned about global warming want the U.S. Supreme Court to turn up the heat on President George W. Bush.
The justices, taking their first plunge into the debate over emissions that scientists blame for increasing the Earth’s temperature, hear arguments Nov. 29 in a case brought by conservation groups and 12 states. Their goal is to force Bush’s Environmental Protection Agency to regulate so-called greenhouse- gas emissions from new cars and trucks.
Bush argues that the government needs more scientific evidence before it acts against such emissions. A victory for environmentalists in the case, which may scramble the court’s usual ideological lineup, would “light a fire” under the administration, says Carol Browner, who headed the EPA under President Bill Clinton.
Below is an extract from a letter to George W. Bush from Senators Boxer, Binganam and Lieberman:
[Nov 15, 2006] As incoming Chairs of three important Senate Committees on global warming, we seek your commitment to work with the new Congress to pass meaningful climate change legislation in 2007. The U.S. must move quickly to adopt economy-wide constraints on domestic GHG emissions and then work with the international community to forge an effective and equitable global agreement.
Scientists are now warning that we may be reaching a “tipping point” beyond which it will be extremely difficult, or perhaps impossible, to avoid the worst consequences of climate change.
The recent elections have signaled a need to change direction in many areas, including global warming. If we are to leave our children a world that resembles the earth we inherited, we must act now to address GHG emissions.
The issue is that the US EPA refuses to act on its responsibility to impose mandatory limits on CO2 emissions as regulated in the Clean Air Act. A case is brought before the US Supreme Court by 11 states and a few cities. The case goes back to 1999 and was heard before the Supreme Court in late November 2006. Transcripts from the hearing reveal total confusion, misunderstandings and an apparent unwillingness by the court to take on such a “complex issue”.
Under previous administrations [Clinton] the EPA did enforce these very same regulations [on CO2]. Now [under George W. Bush] they are saying they aren’t required to use this authority.
“The Supreme Court’s first public discussion of global warming was, in large part, an inquiry into the opportunity — or lack of it — to bring a lawsuit to try to force the government to promptly address the problem (the ’standing’ issue)”.
Chief Justice John Roberts—whose distaste for the baby penguins, the polar ice caps, and anything else ….characterizes the scientific reports in this case as “spinning out conjecture on conjecture”.
Scalia shoots back that he’s not a scientist, laughing, “That’s why I don’t want to have to deal with global warming, to tell you the truth.”….Justice Antonin Scalia asked, “When is the predicted cataclysm?”
The EPA’s argument, presented by Deputy Solicitor General Gregory Garre, quickly sounds very familiar. 1) I can’t clean it up; 2) Even if I could, I don’t want to clean it up; 3) You can’t make me clean it up; and 4) China is making an even bigger mess.”
Roberts chimes in that even if the United States reduces its own emissions, it would be irrelevant if China doesn’t regulate its own greenhouse gasses. Scalia wants reassurance that a “reduction by two and a half percent in carbon dioxide … would save two and a half percent of the coastline.”
Garre insists that there is a “likely connection” between greenhouse gases and global warming but that “it cannot unequivocally be established.”…. argues that carbon dioxide is not a “pollutant” within the meaning of the Clean Air Act.
“A decision dismissing the case on standing grounds is a real possibility.”
Now, in February 2007, the Democrats control Congress. They understand how the political might of Global Warming can undermine the power of the Bush administration. Some Republicans are sufficiently concerned about reelection and the miserable ratings of Bush to express support to some Global Warming issues. Here are samples:
The new House Speaker: Nancy Pelosi created the Select Committee on Energy Independence and Global Warming to hold hearings and recommend approaches to mitigate the effects of global warming. “The science of global warming and its impact is overwhelming and unequivocal.”
The hearings: “White House officials micro manage the government’s climate programs and control what scientists are allowed to tell the public”; “It appears there may have been an orchestrated campaign to mislead the public about climate change,” ; “The Bush administration routinely imposed their own views on the reports of climate change scientists.”; “Press releases about the findings of climate change studies had been delayed, altered and watered down.” ; “In one instance the potential consequences of climate change was entirely deleted from a report to Congress.”
Candidate Politics – 1: “This is a problem whose time has come,” Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y., proclaimed. “This is an issue over the years whose time has come,” echoed Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz. Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., said “for decades far too many have ignored the warning” about climate change. “Will we look back at today and say this was the moment we took a stand?”
Candidate Politics – 2: “John McCain, the current front-runner for the GOP’s 2008 presidential nomination, is co-sponsoring legislation that would cut U.S. greenhouse-gas emissions by two-thirds by 2050. Two of his co-sponsors are Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama.
Running for cover: Republicans are racing to voice their support for reducing carbon dioxide emissions. Even corporate leaders are calling for mandatory caps, recognizing the problem’s gravity and fearing that state action will create a patchwork of confusing regulations hurting the bottom line.
That sounds quite good, doesn’t it? But several months later, not much changed. Hopefully the Supreme Court decision will fire up the stagnated efforts of Congress. We will have to see but the lame efforts so far are bothering.
Here Are Additional Posts on Global Warming
- GlobalWarming:1 – Culprits, Scoundrels and Villains
- GlobalWarming:2 – Politics, Scandals, Mass Committees
- GlobalWarming:3 – Few Like It Hot
- GlobalWarming:Europe – Sauerkraut, Bourgogne, Bangers
- GlobalWarming:4 – Disastrous Disaster Forecasts
- GlobalWarming:Coulter – To Ann Coulter
- GlobalWarming:UN – The Bleakest Outlook Yet
- GlobalWarming:News – Quick News #1
- GlobalWarming:5 – Just Too Many Of You
- GlobalWarming:6 – Terror, War, Fear and Paralysis
- GlobalWarming:News – Quick News #2 – The Deafening Silence of Democrats
- GlobalWarming:7 – Lies, Madness and Some Truth
Thank you – Karl
Global Warming 7: Lies, Madness and a little Truth
March 30, 2007
Junk science. Fascists, Holocaust Deniers, Heads-In-The-Sanders (HITS) , Liberal Kooks, Neo Con Kooks, Faggots, Rednecks, Right wing Maniacs, Religious Nuts, Anti Christs, Axes-to-Grind Snobs, Know-it-All New-Agers (KIANAs), Superior-Nose Socialists, Junk Scientists, Fashion Marxists, Politicized Scientists, Conspirator One-Siders, Self-Interest Activists, World-Is-Flat Sensationalists (WIFs) and Delusional Straight-Jackets. Flat Earthers, Control Freaks, Population Cullers, Global Warming Charlatans.
A recent journalist panel at an American Bar Association meeting declared Global Warming to be the hottest story of our time. It will get even bigger as the obvious effects become more visible. “We live in a country [the US] where more people care about the death of Anna Nicole Smith than the death of a planet; journalists must help explain the evolving story in terms that readers can understand, by showing them how the impacts will affect their lives”, the panel solemnly declared.
No kidding. Never in the history of mankind has so much junk about one single issue been printed, newscast, talk showed, spammed, copied, blogged, spoken, podcast, voice mailed, downloaded, uploaded, emailed, serialized, YouTubed, water cooled, chat roomed, Ann Coulter faggotized, eHarmonized, pdf’d, pirated, multi mediated, Flickr’d, socially networked, Bluetoothed, SMS’d, 
invented by Al Gore or shared in any other of the thousands of ways humans miscommunicate these days. Everyone is getting into the act, often disregarding decency, morals, ethics, truth, facts, responsibility or brains.
Self-appointed Cultural Kingpins, Do-Gooders, Commie Saboteurs, Vile Propagandistic Personality Attackers (VPPAs), Force Feeding Dogmatists, Grant Seeking Automatons, Doomsayers, Brainwashing Repeaters, Fear Mongers, Spayed Intellectually Cheerleaders (SICs), Whiners and Whimperers, Lunatic Lefties and Wing Nuts, Bush-Haters (aka, sore losers), Tree-hugging Maniacs, Loony Liberal Leftists, Liberal Environmentalist Whackos, Parallel Universe Frolickers (PUFs), Crusading Alarmists, Hysteria Scientists, Liars and Propagandists (LAPs).
Pretty much, folks are in one of three camps. The biggest bloc contains those who don’t give a damn – hand me a beer and turn on the TV. Then we have the Deniers or Skeptics as they like to be called, thriving off the shrieks from the Ann Coulters and Rush Limbaughs supported by a few thousand roaring storm troops. Finally you have the Noble Armies of those who have seen the Truth and Kn
ow What Is Best – the Believers. I’d guess perhaps we have a 75%, 5% and 20% split, or publicity wise, a 0%, 65%, 35% split? What do you think?
If you check the list of insults spread around our marvelous communication systems, it is sometimes hard to figure out which insult belongs to what camp. Some are easy: anything Anti-Christ, Leftist or Liberal stands for the Believers. Religious, Presidential and Patriotic stuff belongs to the Skeptics. But then there is this grey area of Attackers, Flat Earthers, Charlatans, Whackos, Frolickers and so on where it is hard to tell which camp is referred to.
This Global Warming post deals with opinions. It may not be the most productive subject but consider the current chaos of misinformation and plain stupidity. Let’s understand why so much effort is wasted. Part of this post repeats content from my other posts. I wanted to collect most “opinions” in one place.
The Vocals of Skeptics
Here is an interesting little set of statistics. In line with the previous section, let’s assume that people truly believing Global Warming is a serious issue that needs action represent 20% of the total. Maybe 5% are true Skeptics and the remaining 75% may or may not take Global Warming seriously but do not 
really care one way or another. This is extrapolating available poll data a bit but it seems to be a reasonable assumption.
Here is the first odd thing. Tracking the various views expressed in newspapers, magazines and blogs, it turns out that about 50% of the published views are coming from Skeptics expressing their very obvious and repeated biases. About 45% of the entries report the news straight-on while 5% of the writings come from the Believers.
That means that the publicity levels of Skeptics out weight their fair share by a factor of ten while Believers are underrepresented by a factor of four. Add the fact that many of the Skeptics arguments are almost identical article to article, in substance and even wording. How come the Skeptics are so dominant in publicity and so coordinated in their views? You tell me.
Then we have the second odd item. In recent polls, about 35% of Republicans believe Global Warming is a serious issue. Yet, based on statements and voting records, only 1% of Republican lawmakers share that opinion. 99% do not. So why do Republican lawmakers not reflect the grass root views of their constituents? You tell me.
Skeptics receive a lot of publicity. Republican lawmakers support Skeptic views far beyond what you’d expect from a level playing field. Why? Maybe there is a conspiracy; many vocal but secretive right wing 
organizations routinely debunk Global Warming. They pressure followers to do the same. George W. Bush does his part by deceiving both Congress and the American people. The James Dobsons and Ralph Reeds of the world merrily follow their Texan leader, providing similar (coordinated?) misinformation.
Strangely, I do not see quite the same publicity skewness in the opinions on the Iraq War, where Bush faces increasing pressure from many that were supporters in the past. The same goes for other policy topics such as the tactics of the “war on terror”, minimum wages and deficit spending. Perhaps border security reflects an imbalance similar to Global Warming.
The polarization is getting worse, not better. The Believers, originally polite about it, start to fight back. The credibility of the Skeptics is increasingly challenged directly instead of conducting a meek debate of the merits of views. The Denier views have been thoroughly debunked so many times it is hardly necessary to do it again. George W. Bush, Dick Cheney and Senator James InTheHole, R. Okla., have zero credibility but the fight is not over.
Al Gore and Wrath of the Right
It is unavoidable given that this post discusses opinions and biases: We must deal with the phenomena of Al Gore. Al Gore, his The Inconvenient Truth and the attitude of the right make a powerful mix that is a symbol of the 
credibility of Global Warming. Conservatives and no doubt many others do not care for Al Gore as a person, perhaps because he won the 2000 election. There is insufficient consolidation to neo cons and other right minded individuals that he lost the Presidency.
Then Mr. Gore went on to a new career of exploring Global Warming, a subject close to him for 25 years, long before it became a world wide issue. Mr. Gore became a symbol for climate change and since he is deplorable, then Global Warming is deplorable and a liberal hoax. He created an Oscars winning documentary, is nominated for the Nobel Peace Price and travels the world with his PowerPoint presentation under his arm. He is receiving world wide attention. According to the Skeptics, all of this clearly proves Global Warming is a hoax.
Those with fewer biases might take issue with that idea. First, Al Gore does not present his own Global Warming research. He presents the work of others, in fact thousands of others. Second, Global Warming is about greenhouse gases and temperatures and a long series of issues caused by these two elements being out of control. That has nothing to do with Al Gore or, for that matter, any old PowerPoint pitch. Third, the real issue is not who is clueless about what, it is what we as the human race do about a looming disaster. Every one with a brain knows what needs to be done. All Al Gore does is acting as a spoke person for the 
solutions worked out by others.
Perhaps it is unfortunate that Al Gore became a symbol in the eyes of many for an issue that is not his at all. It’s possible Global Warming might be much more approachable to 1) Americans, 2) Conservatives and 3) the World in general if Al Gore was not as involved as he is. All the attention given to Al Gore hatred in all kinds of media certainly is a waste of time and effort. It takes away from dealing with solutions. It makes it harder to understand the real issues.
Al Gore is no doubt as amazed as others that he has been so wildly successful in the publicity game. Some even expect him to be the 2008 Presidential candidate wild card as a result. Be that as it may.
Perhaps he wonders as I do if he is part of the problem or part of the solution. The point, though, is Al Gore is not the main issue. Actually, he is not an issue at all in the real world. He did not cause Global Warming and he will not solve the problem of Global Warming. By now, it is irrelevant who caused the problem. The big question is who will solve the problem and if it will happen in time.
It is hard not to wonder about the sanity of the right wingers adding their hot opinions to the “debate”. Here is a sampler of what they say about Mr. Earnest Cardboard Gore: “Chubby nutcase Al Gore.” (Ann Coulter), “Al Gore – total fag.” (Ann Coulter), “It looks as if Al Gore has gone off his 
lithium again.” (Charles Krauthammer, FOX), “I think he’s lost his mind. … I think he’s gone daft because he’s a sad little man now.” (Dennis Miller, CNBC), “He’s a mental patient. … He should go back to the dayroom he came out of.” (Mark R. Levin on FOX).
More on Mr. Gore’s mental state: “Albert Gore Jr., desperately needs help. I think he needs medication, and I think that if he is already on medication, his doctors need to adjust it or change it entirely.” (John Podhoretz, New York Post), “Gore, in our view, has cracked under a crushing burden of guilt.” (James Taranto, Wall Street Journal) and “….It says a lot about Gore. It says he’s perverse,” (Rush Limbaugh).
The above was before the Global Warming controversy. On Global Warming: “Al Gore gave a speech on global warming ….the philosophy of a madman” (Ann Coulter), “Gore-Bal Warming alarmism is getting so over-the-top that it practically qualifies as a mental disorder” (Right Wing News), “Inhofe also compared An Inconvenient Truth to Hitler’s book, Mein Kampf” (James Inhofe), “Al Gore was full of crap,” (James Inhofe), “A heartbreak loser turned Oscar boasting Nobel hopeful globe-trotting multimillionaire pop culture eminence” (New York Times) and “The man could make playing a kazoo look like meditation,” (Time)”.
Finally, here is more from the Competitive Enterprise Institute (my comments in italics):
- “Gore’s proposals would create a breathtaking expansion of government power over the lives of everyday Americans citizens and put the U.S. economy in a deep freeze.” Strangely, the Europeans are not in a deep freeze – in fact they seem to prosper. I suppose they are just that much smarter than Americans are.
- “The former Vice President has had to rely on alarmist predictions which mislead his audiences and distort the relevant science.” The shoe is on the wrong foot here. Consult the House hearings on George W. Bush misleading the country and distorting the truth of Global Warming.
- “Mr. Gore envisions a federal takeover of nearly every aspect of the economy and restrictions on people’s individual choices.” Consult the records of controlling sulphur emissions in the 1970s and the reductions in ozone-destroying agents in the 1980-90s – I don’t recall any restrictions on my freedom. But emissions went down beautifully.
- “Socialism failed because it claimed control over the economy in the name of the people, but the people realized they could run the economy better on their own.” I assume the “failure of socialism” refers to the downfall of the USSR? The Soviets never claimed control in the name of the people. They claimed control in the name of the state. The Soviet people never realized they could do a better job on the economy. They still don’t. “The people” has not run the economy of any country in a thousand years. That includes the US for the past hundreds of years.
I do wish these “think tanks” weren’t so clueless about their subjects. The Institute above really used the wrong list of platitudes. It may be time to simply get mad about this politicized, moronic “Al the Maniac” and all the other equally silly head-in-the-sand junk:
Scene from a Classic
“I don’t have to tell you things are bad. Everybody knows things are bad. We know the air is unfit to breathe and our food is unfit to eat. It’s like everything everywhere is going crazy. I don’t want you to protest. I don’t want you to riot. I want you to get mad! You’ve gotta say, 
“I’m a human being, goddamn it! My life has value.” I want all of you to get up out of your chairs. I want you to get up right now and go to the window, open it, and stick your head out and yell,”
“I’m mad as hell and I’m not going to take this any more!”
Try it on; it may save your life or even your sanity. Perhaps a Skeptic will listen.
Tables of Contents and Other Stuff
The complete Global Warming essay is split up in several individual posts. The following introduction simplifies navigation through the mass of material. If you have been following the series, you may 
(or not) want to skip right to the main content to avoid repetition, although this introduction is constantly updated. If so, hit the “Bypass” below.
If you are new to the series, you may want to 1) start at the beginning of the series using this link: “Culprits, Scoundrels and Villains” or 2) check out the table of content and other explanations of what this is all about – just read on. The TOC button brings you to the essay’s Table of Contents.
About the Essay and Its Nine Main Parts
The essay is split into nine main posts due to its size. Click here for more details on each post.
- The first main post examines the basic reasons why we ended up in this dreadful mess.
- The second main post covers the political and UN scene.
- The third main post deals with rising temperatures.
- The “Sauerkraut” post dives into Europe and its mysteries.
- The fourth main post bares dark secrets about the forecasting business.
- The “Ann Coulter” post made some fun out of America’s favorite fascist.
- The “Bleakest Outlook Yet” previews the April 2007 UN IPCC Report
- The “Quick News” #1 issue of 3-14-2007 updates you on British, EU and other news.
- The fifth main post explains the issues caused by rising populations.
- The sixth main post probes the polarized attitudes to Global Warming.
- The “Quick News” #2 adds to the discussion why Global Warming is so hard to accept.
- The present seventh main post discloses opinions on Global Warming
- The eight main post looks at the very real effects of Global Warming already present.
- The ninth main post explores possible outcomes: cure or disaster?
Additionally to the nine main posts, a few other posts cover special subjects, comments and news. The “Sauerkraut” post looks at Europe and its peculiar history of early tribes, wars and more wars, deceit, Fuehrers, Generalissimos, Emperors, Kings and Queens, imperialism, strange food, democracy and greed, 
finally ending up as the world’s largest market. The post looks at how all of that, more or less, relates to issue of and attitudes to Global Warming. The post also evaluates, in detail, the recent EU proposal to reduce emissions by 20% by 2020.
I couldn’t resist doing a piece on Ann Coulter. She makes a splendid living out of out-chock-jocking Howard Stern, Bill O’Reilly, Geraldo, Moammar al-Ghadafi, Rush Limbaugh, Jerry Falwell, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Pat Robinson, Hugo Chavez, Baghdad Bob, Joseph Goebbels and Dick Cheney all at once. You gotta admire her ignorant persistence and ambition. Doing anything for a buck, she certainly managed to become America’s favorite fascist. Why not?
The “Bleakest Outlook Yet” is precisely that. There is nothing fun about this preview of the next UN IPCC report “Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability”. These reports are getting more and more alarming which by itself is truly scary. All prior reports have underestimated the impact of climate change.
The “Quick News” features may become a regular service to keep us all up to date on recent news and to call the BS floating around. Currently, two posts are available.
Table of Contents
An elaborate link and TOC (Table of Content) system helps you get around the mass of material in this essay of nine main posts. Use it to find what is of your most immediate interest. Just above, there is a TOC button that brings you to the navigation system. Enjoy.
| Blog Home | Home Site | Portfolios |
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- GlobalWarming:1 – Culprits, Scoundrels and Villains
- GlobalWarming:2 – Politics, Scandals, Mass Committees
- GlobalWarming:3 – Few Like It Hot
- GlobalWarming:Europe – Sauerkraut, Bourgogne, Bangers
- GlobalWarming:4 – Disastrous Disaster Forecasts
- GlobalWarming:Coulter – To Ann Coulter
- GlobalWarming:UN – The Bleakest Outlook Yet
- GlobalWarming:News – Quick News #1
- GlobalWarming:5 – Just Too Many Of You
- GlobalWarming:6 – Terror, War, Fear and Paralysis
- GlobalWarming:News – Quick News #2 – The Deafening Silence of Democrats
- This Post:GlobalWarming:7 – Lies, Madness and Some Truth
- GlobalWarming:8 – Terrifying Evidence
- GlobalWarming:9 – Cataclysmic Apocalypse?
Odes, Ballads, Songs and Arias
This essay contains real life mini stories. They describe usually small, even insignificant, effects of Global Warming. The aim is to make you consider reality, survival, pain and your own future. I cite simple stories about how some of us (humans, animals, plants, oceans and everything else) are already in, or cause, deep trouble. Here are links to the various little puzzle pieces:
- Allegro to “There Ain’t No Global Warming”
- Adagio to the Krill
- Mountain Top Chorale
- Tiger in Your Tank Two Step
- I Ain’t Seein’ Nuttin’ Strut
- Farming Greenland Fiesta
- Ballad of the Lemmings
- Carol to Failures
- Ode to an Ancient Past
- Chant for the Confused
- Aria for the Polar Bear
- Foxtrot of The Alarmists
- Cacophony of a President
- Tale of the River
- Northeast Song
- Hymn to the North
- Parchment Míddjarn
- Eulogy for the Oceans
Images in this essay
The images in this post differ from those in all the others, except Post 6: “Terror, Wars, Fears and Paralysis”, which follows the same format as this post. All images are paintings rather than
photographs, with the exception of a few photos of sculptures, the Howard Beale photo and the Al Gore images. The motif is pain, sorrow and compassion. The theme invokes awareness of the devastating future we may be facing. There may well be a lot of human suffering in our or our kids’ life time due to this ugly thing called Global Warming.
All of this art work is associated with another era of great suffering. The Holocaust. The paintings are by individuals close to that genocide. Some artists were in and survived the camps. Others are children of former camp inmates. Yet others have a different link to the camps. I believe the suffering endured in the camps may, in some sense, be repeated in the future of Global Warming. We won’t see a Dr. Mengele or Himmler, nor gas chambers or death trains. But the suffering from Global Warming may well exceed that of the Holocaust many times over.
I did not choose the images from a strictly artistic point of view. Not all paintings are masterpieces. Some are downright ugly. I choose them because of their emotional content and their impact, at least on me. I believe Earth will suffer major tragedies as it has in the past. Global Warming is one likely cause of such suffering, but probably not the only one factor. Of course, Global Warming is already harvesting its first victims. It would be fantasy to think there is not a lot more to come.
Using the Holocaust for this post is not politically motivated. Almost none of the artwork directly addresses the camps themselves or isolates the Jewish experience. The choice of the motif 
has nothing to do with the cheap shots recently fired about so called Holocaust Deniers, a phrase I find repulsive in the context of Global Warming.
This blog, its design, text content (except quotes from others) and my own images and graphs are copyright © Leading Design, Inc 2006-2007. All Rights Reserved. I make absolutely no claims on images or quotes originating in other sources.
To All You Skeptics
With George Bush of the US, Hu Jintao of China, Manmohan Singh of India and John Howard of Australia leading the way, the skeptics have their day in the spot light of the Internet and in newspapers on the right side of the fence. While most of it is just silly polemic and neocon rhetoric, here are their key 
arguments with my Italic comments:
Thousands of independent scientists and thinkers doubt Global Warming exists. That is probably true. There are also thousands of scientists and thinkers that deny the Holocaust and others debunk Evolution. Millions of people still believe there are WMD in Iraq. Every one has a right to an opinion. Credibility taking appropriate policy action is a different matter.
Climate change (warming and cooling) has been happening for millions of years. Absolutely true, but in the last few millions of years, no extreme warming ever occurred as seen in the last fifty years or so. The rise in temperatures is certain to continue, breaking new records. The cooling cycles of the past are 
somewhat comparable in magnitude and resulted in ice ages. Ice ages drastically changed the fundamentals of life. There are other examples of extreme climate changes in pre-historic times – all had devastating impacts.
There is no catastrophic warming taking place. Wrong. The catastrophic effects of warming are occurring right now and are well documented. Most of us humans are not yet impacted because we live in areas far away from the immediate impact clearly seen in oceans, tundra, Alpine and Polar areas. Check the facts, please. These events are not secret.
Humans are not big players in global carbon cycle. Wrong. There is too much evidence that 1) man made emissions of carbon rose dramatically to levels never seen, starting in 1750, 2) atmospheric concentrations of carbon gases rose in a similar manner as easily explained by pure physics laws and 3) temperatures followed according in a clear cause-effect manner. The world isn’t flat, either.
Scientists claimed we were heading towards an ice age just 30 years ago. That is somewhat true but remarkably effective pollution legislation broke that trend, perhaps too well. It would be nice if the same legislation, the Clean Air Act in the US, would be enacted on carbon emissions as it legally should. That would ease the dangers significantly. Mr. Bush disagrees.
Climate change must be seen as the norm not the exception. Absolutely true, eventually 
Earth will cool down and probably enter another ice age, perhaps in a thousand years or so. The very real question is if mankind and most other species of today will be around to face that particular issue.
We don’t have the tools to model climate accurately. I agree. Climate models are not a magic bullet and are in many cases grossly overrated. They handle masses of data well. They can display the impact of certain assumptions as scenarios. They cannot forecast the future accurately. There is a big distinction between “forecasts” and “scenarios”. But climate models per se have nothing to do with Global Warming. They are just tools.
No doubt this discussion will continue and not end till there is only one human left. There is nothing wrong with that except to some of us the rhetoric is getting a bit old. The challenge is to not let these differences delay urgently needed actions till it is too late. Not only is the problem made by man, the solution must be man made too. Even if by chance the problem is not made by man, we still have an obligation to rectify a deadly trend. Blaming the sun and then going to sleep is not a rational response.
The opinions of many Skeptics follow a pattern. It’s the same arguments, often the same words and never a shred of evidence and in many cases repeated in several media and channels. I keep wondering about this carpet bombing pattern. The arguments and conclusions seem designed to be misleading, based on fallacies and knowingly invalid, all hallmarks of propaganda. Are these guys simply plagiarizing each other? Do they use a blue print from some one? So let’s look at the definition of propaganda and then you decide. Of course, if this is propaganda, then who is behind it? Here is the definition of propaganda per Wikipedia:
Propaganda is a type of message aimed at influencing the opinions or behavior of
people. Often, instead of impartially providing information, propaganda can be deliberately misleading, using logical fallacies, which, while sometimes convincing, are not necessarily valid.
Propaganda techniques include: patriotic flag-waving, glittering generalities, intentional vagueness, oversimplification of complex issues, rationalization, introducing unrelated red herring issues, using appealing, simple slogans, stereotyping, testimonials from authority figures or celebrities, unstated assumptions, and encouraging readers or viewers to “jump on the bandwagon” of a particular point of view.
Patriotic flag waving, misleading oversimplification, logical fallacies, vague stereotyping, partial information, unstated assumptions, red herrings are often referred to as items in a Bush policy. Skeptics tend to use the same mold. What about it? Please check out the below.
Two Odes and Ballads for the Skeptics
The first of these ballads is a reprint from an earlier post. It is reprinted so this post contains a fairly complete set of opinions from the Ignorant and Those That Seen The Light.
I Ain’t Seein’ Nuttin’ Strut
Here is yet another mini drama: This item reaches out to the Skeptics although they do not seem interested in returning the favor. Here goes the Strut:
The Northern Hemisphere is in deep winter at the moment. The February 2007 IPCC Global Warming Report is out, predicting dire consequences of the hot weather. Some people have a tough time seeing warmer climate as their butts freeze off. Others think cool weather means there is no Global Warming. A few still have fun denouncing science. Let’s listen to the views of the doubters in the “I Ain’t Seen Nothin’ Strut”. Quotes are from all over the media:
- “Hey, Al Gore: this global warming is killing me. It’s practically 10 degrees, and dropping.”; “Gee…must be global warming! My water pipes frozen for the first time in 22 years where I live in California, gee…must be global warming!”
- “Man made global warming is junk science propounded by anti capitalists/ socialists and Marxists with the sole purpose of attacking big businesses — that’s ALL it is. There is no substantive proof to support their claim, there never has been and there isn’t any now. It is plain old fear mongering.”
- “Where has Global Warming been hiding this week? Certainly he is not at the bottom of my woodpile because I have burned so much fuel I can almost see down to bare ground. I worried that Global Warming was stuck somewhere in a Buffalo, N.Y., blizzard, but saw no sign of him on the news clips from that snowbound part of the country.”
- “Global Warming is a delusion that requires nothing less than rehab. The media have almost completely lost contact with reality. They don’t even know that they are embarrassing themselves by passing off New Age drivel as science.”
- “These [pro Global Warming] political guys have axes to grind in the weather thing and what some say will be needed to avoid climate catastrophe. Among them are official folks who seek mainly to choke down the productivity of the United States. Folks like the Chinese, the Indians, and other relatively poorer countries have huge stakes in getting bigger pieces of the world economic pie.”
- “That [Global Warming] is garbage. Brave, knowledgeable voices are raised in dissent, but the scientific snobs and know-it-alls in the media ignore them. With their superior noses raised in the air, they deny what common sense tells us all every day — that the world is flat. But get this: A bunch of kooks in white jackets recently released another report [IPCC 2007] that said our flat Earth is the subject of “global warming,” which, of course, is nonsense”
- [Global Warming] is not a coordinated conspiracy but a fashion, in which self-interest and ideology combine and green activists, politicians and journalists help each other to get more funding, more sensational stories and more enemies to blame.
- “Czech president Vaclav Klaus criticized the UN panel on global warming, claiming that it was a political authority without any scientific basis. ‘These are politicized scientists who arrive there with one-sided opinion and assignment,’ he told interviewers. ‘Each serious person and scientist says that global warming is a myth’.”
- “To many, the dire implication of last summer’s blistering high temperatures seemed irrefutable, at least until the record setting lows of this winter. The inarguably “conclusive” proof offered by those who claim the planet is getting steadily warmer has borne little or no repeatable evidence of a scientifically established pattern.”
The “Ain’t Seein’ Nuttin’ Strut” explains the errors of the Axes-to-Grind Snobs, Liberal Kooks, Know-it-All New-Agers, Superior-Nose Socialists, Junk Scientists, Fashion Marxists, Politicized Scientists, Conspirator One-
Siders, Self-Interest Activists, World-Is-Flat Sensationalists and Delusional Straight-Jackets. Let’s keep going with a few other characteristics of Global Warming scientists and believers: Flat Earthers, Control Freaks, and Population Cullers.
On it goes: Global Warming Charlatans, Fascists, Self-appointed Cultural Kingpins, Do-Gooders, Vile Propagandistic Personality Attackers, Force Feeding Dogmatists, Grant Seeking Automatons, Doomsayers, Brainwashing Repeaters, Fear mongers, Intellectually Spayed Cheerleaders, Whiners and Whimperers, Lunatic Lefties and Wing Nuts, Bush-Haters (aka, sore losers), Tree-hugging Maniacs, Loony Liberal Leftists, Liberal Environmentalist Whackos, Parallel Universe Frolickers, Crusading Alarmists, Hysteria Scientists, Liars and Propagandists. Quite a mouthful isn’t it.
One has to admire the innovative control of the English language by these quite expressive Skeptics. It would be nice if they spent a bit of time on actual analysis proving their opinions rather than reinventing the English language. 
The cooling climate concerns of the 1960s and 1970s provide favorite arguments for the Skeptics. The looming Ice Age did not happen, proving Global Warming is a hoax. Reality check: The massive sulphur dioxide emissions, causing cooling and acid rain were sufficiently reduced through huge industry investments in scrubbers and other equipment. The 1970 Clean Air Acts mandated, in the US, such investment. Within a few years, a 70% reduction in sulphur dioxide pollution broke the cooling trend. Incidentally, the President signing the bill was the Tree-Hugging Maniac and Loony Leftist Mr. Richard Nixon.
According to the law, the EPA should enforce similar measures to curb GHGs. The Clean Air Acts are simple, logical, existing frameworks for solving the whole damn Global Warming problem. It is not a legal issue whether the Acts can be applied to GHG emissions. They can be pursued right now. EPA is not enforcing the Acts on orders from Mr. President George W. Bush of the Texas Oil Industry and/or Mr. VP Dick Cheney of Halliburton, about to be headquartered in Dubai. Heck, it is just another useless law, easily broken and bypassed. Go for it.
The White House Duo just undermine the ability of Earth to support life as we sentimentally know it. No big deal.
Odes and Ballads – Foxtrot of The Alarmists
I like to insert little life stories about Global Warming as we all work through this massive set of 
facts, evidence, graphs, photographs, controversy and opinions. That might make this mess more palatable. I choose recent little articles that may not individually mean all that much to most people. The little pieces should add up to a reality based picture in your mind.
Since this is going to be a long story about how bad this Global Warming thing is, why not highlight a few less well known facts as seen by Alarmists. Maybe the Alarmists aren’t the ones you expected. Here is the Foxtrot, gathered from various sources:
- “It is amazing that so many people believe global warming is real and is caused by humans. This myth has been largely promoted by the major media that gives much attention to those who support it and very little to those who debunk it. For example, in December, U.S. Sen. James Inhofe of Oklahoma chaired a “Climate Change and the Media” meeting. He said that global warming is a hoax. The meeting received almost no major media attention.”
- “An increase in CO2 would increase oxygen production by plants which each one of us breathes. Therefore, there is no global warming due to CO2 gas. If there is global warming it is because the sun is putting out more radiant energy and has been observed to vary in intensity over time.”
- “With all of the hysteria, all of the fear, all of the phony science, could it be that man-made global warming is the greatest hoax ever perpetrate on the American people?”
- “A multibillion-dollar worldwide industry: created by fanatically anti-industrial environmentalists; supported by scientists peddling scare stories to chase funding; and propped up by complicit politicians and the media”
- “The need to come up with an enemy after the end of the Cold War, and the desire among scientists, government leaders and environmentalists to find a political cause that would enable them to “organize, propagandize, force conformity and exercise political influence. Big world government could best lead (and control) us to a better world!”
- “The global warming hoax is not about the Earth’s climate. It is about an attack on the economies of those nations that produce much of the world’s wealth”; “The industrialized nations of the world are the target of the environmentalists, as is the entire population of the world. By every means possible, they have sought to undermine economic growth and to enhance the reduction of human life on this planet.
- The whole (global warming) thing is created to destroy America’s free enterprise system and our economic stability.” “Global warming has taken the place of Communism as an absurdity that ‘liberals’ will defend to the death regardless of the evidence showing its folly.”
- “The answer to global warming is in the abolition of private property and production for human need. A socialist world would place an enormous priority on alternative energy sources. This is what ecologically-minded socialists have been exploring for quite some time now.”
- “It looks like this whole mess is another plan designed by international bankers to steal more wealth for them.” “No society in its right mind is going to willfully do to itself what the environmentalist industry, at its core, desperately seeks: massive diminution of individual liberties.”
- “Rather, it is a political movement led by those who seek to control the world economies, dictate development and redistribute the world’s wealth. They use the philosophical base of Karl Marx, the tactics of Adolph Hitler and the rhetoric of the Sierra Club. The American people have been assaulted from all directions by rabid environmentalists.”
- This is the reason behind the global warming “threat”: The world’s elite cabal has enslaved the world in perpetual debt. It’s through debt enslavement and imaginary global threats (such as opinions on global warming) that they wield their power. We’ve put together a debt termination process that works in legally eliminating debt. We urge you to join our efforts in peacefully fighting back against this type of tyranny. Our process will free you financially while reducing the amount of money available to the corrupt cabal.
That’s the Foxtrot of the Alarmists. These quotes are not from some backwards place in a dusty far away country. They are current views of allegedly grown up people in the U.S. of A. Amazingly, 
some of these Alarmists hold positions of power in the most powerful country on earth. Senator Inhofe, for instance.
So here is the truth about this climate hoax: We better defend ourselves against the joint conspiracy of Karl Marx, Adolf Hitler and the Sierra Club; prevent the destruction of America’s enterprises, private property and individual liberties; stop the new Communism and root out the international bankers stealing or paychecks unashamedly and then demolish this terrifying cabal which is charging our credit cards when we don’t look out. Something along those lines. It should go OK as long as the bad guys don’t lay their dirty hands on any kryptonite.
Next, you’ll see Hitler redistribute our wealth by tearing down nuclear power plants while Karl Marx is busy controlling the world economies and feeding polar bears, all in the name of Global Warming. Expect the unexpected.
Sure it is easy to dismiss junk like this. But take a time trip back to the 1930s when Nazism, Soviet style Communism and Fascism bloomed. Many of the arguments of the Foxtrot were in high fashion at the time as theorized by Hitler, Mussolini and Stalin. Few countries avoided totalitarian influences, including the US and Britain. Check out the political leanings of Joe Kennedy (father of John, Ted and Robert Kennedy) or Charles Lindbergh? King Edward VIII of the UK, later the Duke of Windsor, of England was “pro Germany”. The Pope was a Nazi. Never dismiss the dangers of extremism. It sure can happen again. Rove is working on it.
Opinions Of the Ignorant (Mostly)
Here is another very mixed bag of opinions, endorsements, jokes, critiques and insults from a great many sources and beliefs. Some opinions are valid, some credible, others reasonable but most are none of that. The main reason to put this in the essay is to illustrate how vastly divided the universe has become. I’ll start with yet another ode and ballad in the mini stories series.
Odes and Ballads – The Cacophony of a President
It had to happen. It just isn’t possible not to do it. So here are selected Bush quotes, telling the saga of leadership, clarity and insights. Ladies and Gentlemen, the President of the United States:
- “First, we would not accept a [Kyoto Protocol] treaty that would not have been ratified, nor a treaty that I thought made sense for the country.”; “The Kyoto Protocol was fatally flawed in fundamental ways.”
- “The California crunch really is the result of not enough power-generating plants and then not enough power to power the power of generating plants.” “Natural gas is hemispheric. I like to call it hemispheric in nature because it is a product that we can find in our neighborhoods.”
- “Natural gas needs to move in our hemisphere. It needs to move easily across our borders to find markets, to be able to ease the pressures of reduced supply all around the country.”
- “We need an energy bill that encourages consumption.”; “Don’t buy gas if you don’t need it.”; “We don’t need to be breaching no dams that are producing electricity.”; “Technology is going to change the way we live for the good for the environment. That’s why I proposed a … hydrogen-generated automobile”.
- “Well, I think if you say you’re going to do something and don’t do it, that’s trustworthiness.”; “One of the common denominators I have found is that expectations rise above that which is expected.”; “I have opinions of my own, strong opinions, but I don’t always agree with them.”
- “This is Preservation Month. I appreciate preservation. It’s what you do when you run for president. You gotta preserve.”; “John Thune has got a common-sense vision for good forest policy. I look forward to working with him in the United Nations Senate to preserve these national heritages.”
- “It is clear our nation is reliant upon big foreign oil. More and more of our imports come from overseas.”; “I’ve been talking to Vicente Fox, the new president of Mexico… I know him… to have gas and oil sent to U.S….. so we’ll not depend on foreign oil.”; “The vast majority of our imports come from outside the country”.
- “We want to reduce greenhouse gases. Ours is a large economy. We used to generate more wealth than we are today. And as a result, we do contribute greenhouse gases to the atmosphere.”; “It isn’t pollution that’s harming the environment. It’s the impurities in our air and water that are doing it.”
- “I know that the human being and fish can coexist peacefully.”; “We need to thin our forests in America.”; “Not everybody agrees with thinning, there will objections. But we want those objections to be heard; of course every citizen needs to hear a voice.”
That’s the “Cacophony of a President”, clarifying the White House energy, environmental, climate change and Global Warming policies. With such insights from the Big Decider, who needs questions?
The Swindle of the “Great Global Warming Swindle”
This British TV show aired on March 8th, 2007 on BBC Channel 4 aiming at killing off Global Warming alarmism 
once and for all. It turned out to be a fraud which did not stop the Skeptics’ love of this junket. Here is what happened:
Two days later, on March 10th 2007, journalists and others proved beyond any doubt that the show knowingly presented false data. That included using data sources decenniums out of date, then falsifying “updates” to make it look like the data was up-to-date. Of course, these fantasy (to use a kind word) “updates” were tailored to support the show’s claims. Actual and correct data was easily available but would not support the show’s conclusions, thus ignored by the producers in favor of their own famously fraudulent version. The producers have admitted falsifying data.
If you read nothing else, please check this link to the original exposure of this ridiculous show: it’s the original Independent article. If you want to watch the show, here is a link.
By March 10th 2007, Sir John Houghton, the former head of the Met Office who chairs the Scientific Assessment Working Group of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), said: “Last Thursday’s programme purported to debunk the science of Global Warming describing it as ‘lies’ and an invention of hundreds of scientists around the world, who have conspired to mislead 
governments, and the general public. The material presented was a mixture of truth, half truth and falsehood put together with the sole purpose of discrediting the science of global warming as presented by the main world community of climate scientists and by the IPCC.” Sir John continues to thoroughly expose the show’s false claims.
After March 10th, a vast number of right wing Skeptics have triumphantly hailed this thoroughly debunked and fraudulent show as the Gospel of Climate Gods proving Global Warming is a Swindle. They completely ignore the evidence the show is largely a scam. As I write, this is March 29th – the Skeptics are still pouring out statements claiming Global Warming is a swindle based on this fraud of a TV show. Earlier I mentioned propaganda – this surely is plain old propaganda.
Here are just a few of many examples of inaccuracies and misinformation. Other lists show hundreds of inaccuracies. It is inconceivable that the Skeptics aren’t aware of these issues as they write their commentaries – do they really need to grab at straws such as this sinking disaster?
- The show claims that volcanoes emit more carbon dioxide than humans do. There is no correlation between total emissions and volcanic eruptions. Typically, volcanoes emit less than 1/250th of man made emissions. Volcanoes can impact climates on a temporary basis mostly because of the masses of dust and particles thrown into the atmosphere at major eruptions. But their emissions of greenhouse gases pale compared to those of humans.
- The show claims that natural causes such as sun irradiance cause more temperature effects than humans do. Research shows manmade emissions outpace such natural emissions by a factor of 10.
- The show claims that a cooling trend between 1940 and 1970 proves global warming is a hoax. The cooling trend mentioned is well researched and linked to sulphur emissions. There is no link to Global Warming.
Carl Wunch, a scientist participating in the show, threatened to sue the producers for knowingly misrepresenting his arguments. Here is a link to parts of his statement. The producers admit they used fabricated data and various other means to “simplify” the story, such as doctoring interviews.
Here is a partial list of those knowingly publishing what amounts to complete scam if not fraud: BBC Channel 4, Life Style Extra, A Digg blog, Fox News, Washington Times, New York Post,
The Conservative Voice, GOPUSA, Human Events, WorldNetDaily, Contra Costa Times, TownSquare Forum, Global Research, the Jerusalem Post, Inverstors.com, American Chronicle, ADB, NewsBusters, VCrisis, Edmonton Sun, iAfrica, Cool Hunting, Daelnet, American Thinker (playing both ends), Stop the ACLU and CBNNews.
Here are some of those calling the bluff: the Independent, the Guardian Unlimited, the Times, the Times (again), Globalization and the Environment, Crooked Timber, Outlook India, Atlantic Free Press, American Thinker (playing both ends) and 
Ask Ethan (Spiked).
I got tired of tracking down more of this nonsense. I’m sure the lists could be expanded ten fold but it really is a waste of time pursuing this idiotic show any more. It’s a waste of time shaming the fools swallowing the story.
This fairly random sample of pros and cons yielded 26 Skeptics versus 10 Believers. I’ve long believed that the Skeptics, while being a minority by far, are over represented in publicity by a rate of 10 or so (see, for instance, Top Of This Post). The unscientific sample above confirms Skeptics are in fact getting far more exposure than warranted by their numbers. Go figure. Is it Karl Rove slipping into covert action, diabolically pulling strings in his windowless office on the second floor of the West Wing?
The Madness of the Religious Right
Here is one section to which you better pay attention. The beliefs and acts of the Religious Right are very scary and may be one of the biggest impendence to solving Global Warming issues. Please note the Religious Right is not just an annoyance of American reactionaries or religious nuts, they are powerful throughout the world in both Western and Islam areas:
- This is it: “When he opened the sixth seal, I looked, and behold, there was a great earthquake; and the sun became black as sackcloth, the full moon became like blood, and the stars of the sky fell to the earth as the fig tree sheds its winter fruit when shaken by a gale; the sky vanished like a scroll that is rolled up, and every mountain and island was removed from its place“. Revelation 6:12-14
- Many Christian fundamentalists feel that concern for the future of our planet is irrelevant, because it has no future. They believe we are living in the End Time, when the son of God will return, the righteous will enter heaven, and sinners will be condemned to eternal hellfire.
- The Oscar-winning documentary An Inconvenient Truth was to have been shown at a school science class in Federal Way, Wash., a Seattle suburb, until one of the children’ s fathers angrily attacked the idea and got its showing temporarily scrubbed for the entire district. Frosty E. Hardiman, father of seven and an evangelical Christian, objected to the film because it blamed the United States for global warming. He believes the change in climates to be one of the signs of Jesus’ imminent return.
- They may also believe, along with millions of other Christian fundamentalists, that environmental destruction is not only to be disregarded but actually welcomed — even hastened — as a sign of the coming Apocalypse. Do not expect support for environmental issues, however basic and obvious, from this gang.
- Other hot buttons include gay rights, marriage and life style, gay marriage, stem cell research and abortion. They like meddling in every one’s sex life. They will unquestionably support George W. Bush as long as he marches in sync. If he doesn’t, then his last support group is gone and he literally is out in the cold.
- Zell Miller of Georgia, who earlier this year quoted from the Book of Amos on the Senate floor: “The days will come, sayeth the Lord God, that I will send a famine in the land. Not a famine of bread or of thirst for water, but of hearing the word of the Lord!”)
- [Supportive] politicians include some of the most powerful figures in the U.S. government, as well as key environmental decision makers: Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (R-Tenn.), Senate Majority Whip Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), Senate Republican Conference Chair Rick Santorum (R-Penn.), Senate Republican Policy Chair Jon Kyl (R-Ariz.), House Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-Ill.), House Majority Leader Tom DeLay, House Majority Whip Roy Blunt (R-Mo.), U.S. Attorney General John Ashcroft, and quite possibly President Bush.
- Forty-five senators and 186 representatives in 2003 earned 80- to 100-percent approval ratings from the nation’s three most influential Christian right advocacy groups — the Christian Coalition, Eagle Forum, and Family Resource Council. This is 40% of lawmakers.
- And those politicians are just the powerful tip of the iceberg. A 2002 Time/CNN poll found that 59 percent of Americans believe that the prophecies found in the Book of Revelation are going to come true. Nearly one-quarter think the Bible predicted the 9/11 attacks.
- Last year, Inhofe invited a stacked-deck of fossil fuel-funded climate-change skeptics to testify at a Senate hearing that climaxed with him calling global warming “the greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the American people.” James Inhofe might be an environmentalist’s worst nightmare. The Oklahoma senator makes major policy decisions based on heavy corporate and theological influences, flawed science, and probably an apocalyptic world view — and he chairs the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee.
- Inhofe’s staff defends his backward scientific positions, no matter how at odds they are with mainstream scientists. “How do you define ‘mainstream’?” asked a miffed staffer. “[Is it] scientists who accept the so-called consensus about global warming? Galileo was not [a] mainstream [person].”
Many of the politicians, 100% Republicans as you notice except for retired Zell Miller, are gone, 
some disgraced by scandals, others fired or voted out and some less powerful as the Democrats took over both houses. The Religious Right allegedly is in decline. Ted Haggard (sex scandal), Jerry Falwell (hate), Ralph Reed (corruption), Ted Haggard (sex scandal) and Pat Robertson (lunacy, hatred, bigotry, you name it) all have gone South, literally. Those of us with a memory might recall Jim Bakker with wife Tammy Faye (fraud) and Jimmy Swaggart (sex scandal). But never underestimate these people. A majority of Americans support or have supported at least some views of the Religious Right.
The Religious Right believes in and welcomes Armageddon. Here is a large and immensely powerful block totally against any kind of action on Global Warming on, of all things, religious grounds. Now you know why George W. Bush ducks the issue: not only would it hurt his corporate sponsors, it’s against his 
late found religion.
If the Armageddon people (whether from the Religious Right or from overly enthusiastic Climate Researchers) are right, it doesn’t matter what I say or what any one does or not. Armageddon it is. In the case of the Religious Right, extinction is apparently a blessing of us all. I don’t think I agree. I don’t fancy eternal heavenly bliss in the company of Tom DeLay, Ann Coulter and James Inhofe. Nor would I like eternal hell with the Clintons and Al Gore next to me.
The other extremes, the Ignorant-Skeptic-Deniers, have their heads too far down in the sand to really worry about. Besides, if they by chance are right, it still doesn’t matter what I say – there was no problem in the first place and no action was needed.
You may have heard about the Evangelicals jumping on the Global Warming band wagon which certainly is a good thing. Evangelicals are not the same thing as the conservative Religious Right and both fight for control of the religious masses.
The Religious Right is a formidable opponent to action on Global Warming. There is no obvious way to neutralize these people except outnumber them. They will continue to venomously resist investing in emission control, caps or green energy. How do you fight for human survival against a block of 100 million born again “Christians” that want nothing but death so “they” can triumphantly march into “their” heaven?
Leno, Letterman, Conan, Colbert and the Joke Machine
Being an Equal Opinion Blog (EOB), I give up space to even the most useless of opinions. This segment is living proof thereof. None of the views expressed below mean anything at all. But who can tell in this time of mystery push and pull forces acting on our meek minds? Here is the Late Show Host And Comedian take on Global Warming:
- “According to a new U.N. report, the global warming outlook is much worse than originally predicted. This is pretty bad when they originally predicted it would destroy the planet” “According to a survey in this week’s Time magazine, 85% of Americans think global warming is happening. The other 15% work for the White House.” — Jay Leno
- “President Bush has a plan. He says that if we need to, we can lower the temperature dramatically just by switching from Fahrenheit to Celsius” — Jimmy Kimmel
- “Governor Schwarzenegger spoke about the dangers of global warming. Schwarzenegger’s exact words were: fire, hot, bad.” “Yesterday, a group of scientists warned that because of global warming, sea levels will rise so much that parts of New Jersey will be under water. The bad news: parts of New Jersey won’t be under water.” — Conan O’Brien
- “NASA just released their new report on global warming or, as President Bush, calls it — Spring.” “President Bush is taking more liberal positions. For example global warming: he used to be against it. Now it’s the Republican plan for heating homes this winter.” “They say if the warming trend continues, by 2015 Hillary Clinton might actually thaw out.” — Jay Leno
- David Letterman’s Top Ten Signs There’s Global Warming, featuring Tom Hanks:
-
- 10 -I just bought ocean front property in Topeka, Kansas.
- 9 – Glaciers are receding faster than Letterman’s hairline.
- 8 – ‘Cool Ranch’ Burritos Are Really ‘Lukewarm Ranch’ Burritos.
- 7 – No Matter What You Teach Them, Parrots Only Say: ‘I’m Sweating My Nuts Off’.
- 6 – Ed Sullivan Theater Is Now A Balmy 48 Degrees.
- 5 – Paris Hilton Saying ‘That’s Hot’ Even About Stuff That Is So Not.
- 4 – No Shirt, No Shoes? You Still Get Service.
- 3 – ONE Degree Over The Last 100 Years – That’s What This Is All About??
- 2 – Ted Williams’ Head Just Woke Up Asking For Iced Tea.
- 1 – I’m So Disoriented, I Agreed To Do A Lame Top Ten List.
- “Al Gore has a hit movie called ‘An Inconvenient Truth.’ I have an inconvenient truth for him: you’re still not the president.” “Global warming: It is time we did something, namely resign ourselves to doing nothing [on screen: Follow Congress’ Lead].” “For instance, when sea levels rise, we’ll just build levees [on screen: Worked for New Orleans]” — Stephen Colbert
- “The Federal Trade Commission has ruled that oil companies are not gouging customers. They say, technically, they’re screwing customers.” “One very dramatic scene in the Al Gore global warming movie is when a glacier melts and they find more Al Gore ballots from the election.” “Experts say this global warming is serious, and they are predicting now that by the year 2050, we will be out of party ice.” — David Letterman
- “A lot of people think global warming is causing these terrible hurricanes. See I think to stop global warming we should move in the other direction. We should move towards a second ice age. Follow me, if the glaciers are coming towards us at like an inch a year, then the government would have time to respond.” — Jay Leno
- David Letterman’s Top Ten George W. Bush Solutions For Global Warming:
-
- 10. NASA mission to turn down the sun’s thermostat.
- 9. Federal subsidies to boost production of Cool Ranch Doritos.
- 8. Fast track Rumsfeld’s “Colonize Neptune” proposal.
- 7. Convene Blue-Ribbon Committee to explore ways of ignoring the problem.
- 6. Let Hillary worry about it when she takes over.
- 5. I dunno—tax cuts for the rich?
- 4. Give the boys at Halliburton 90-billion dollar contract to patch hole in ozone.
- 3. Switch to Celsius so scorching 98 becomes frosty 37.
- 2. Keep plenty of Bud on ice.
- 1. Invade Antarctica.
- “President Bush told reporters he won’t see Al Gore’s documentary about the threat of global warming. On the other hand, Dick Cheney said he’s seen the global warming film five times, and it still cracks him up.” “Governor Schwarzenegger spoke about the dangers of global warming. Schwarzenegger’s exact words were: fire, hot, bad.” — Conan O’Brien
- ‘An Inconvenient Truth.’ is described as a detailed scientific view of global warming. President Bush said he just saw a film about global warming, ‘Ice Age 2; The Meltdown.’ He said, ‘It’s so much better than that boring Al Gore movie.'” “Al Gore said over the weekend that global warming is more serious than terrorism. Unless the terrorist is on your plane, then that extra half a degree doesn’t bother you so much.” — Jay Leno
Heck, don’t blame me. I didn’t say any of it. Now let’s move on to Ann Coulter, heroine fascist.
Anthem of Ann Coulter
Ann, your brave, hold-no-barrels offensive dedicated to the true American fascist values cannot but move every red blooded American Christian almost to tears. To help spread the message, I decided to dedicate one of my ballads to you personally. It’s important to grasp the full picture of the fascist 
movement of America. After all, this is the policy of the future, as envisioned by so many.
Here is The Anthem of Ann Coulter, also dedicated to that American hero, Joe McCarthy, a man of great vision and unswerving dedication, sadly lacking monuments. I know most of it has nothing to do with Global Warming. Actually, none of it really has anything to do with anything. But let’s do it anyway:
Anne Coulter On Anne Coulter herself
“I’m here, I’m not queer, and I’m not going away; Let’s say I go out every night, I meet a guy and have sex with him. Good for me. I’m not married; Originally, I was the only female with long blonde hair; now, they all have long blonde hair; I am emboldened by my looks to say things Republican men wouldn’t; I’m so pleased with my gender – we are not too bright; You want to be careful not to become just a blowhard.”
“Christianity fuels everything I write. Being a Christian means that I am called upon to do battle against lies, injustice, cruelty, hypocrisy—you know, all the virtues in the church of liberalism; I’m a Christian first and a mean-spirited, bigoted conservative second, and don’t you ever forget it.”
Anne Coulter On Clinton et al
“[Clinton] masturbates in the sinks; Clinton is in love with the erect penis.; Bill Clinton “was a very good rapist”; It’s enough [to be impeached] for the president to be a pervert; If you don’t hate Clinton and the people who labored to keep him in office, you don’t love your country; We’re now at 
the point that it’s beyond whether or not this guy is a horny hick. I really think it’s a question of his mental stability. He really could be a lunatic. I think it is a rational question for Americans to ask whether their president is insane.”
“[Clinton] had crack pipes on the White House Christmas tree; is a celebrated felon, a known felon, a pervert, liar and a felon, a criminal, a flimflam artist, a prominent criminal.”
“I don’t know if [former U.S. President Bill Clinton is] gay. But [former U.S. Vice President] Al Gore – is a total fag. I was going to have a few comments on the other Democratic presidential candidate John Edward, but it turns out you have to go into rehab if you use the word “faggot”, so I — so kind of an impasse, can’t really talk about Edwards; C’mon, it was a joke. I would never insult gays by suggesting that they are like John Edwards. That would be mean.”
Anne Coulter On JFK and the rest
“JFK was — in theory — as ferocious an anti-communist as the great Joe McCarthy. But Kennedy was a Democrat and thus an utter incompetent when it came to execution. Johnson is not your strongest case. He had all of JFK’s incompetence without the good heart.”
“This is as we have come to expect from a [Kennedy] family of heroin addicts, statutory rapists, convicted and un convicted female-killers, cheaters, bootleggers and dissolute drunks known as “Camelot.” Why would anyone want su
ch people as their “good friends”?”
Anne Coulter On Dick Cheney
“Cheney is my ideal man. Because he’s solid and he’s funny. He’s very handsome. He was a football player. People don’t think about him as the glamour type because he’s a serious person, he wears glasses and he’s lost his hair. But he’s a very handsome man. And you cannot imagine him losing his temper, which I find extremely sexy. Men who get upset and lose their tempers and claim to be sensitive males: talk about girly boys. No, there’s a reason hurricanes are named after women and homosexual men, it’s one of our little methods of social control. We’re supposed to fly off the handle.”
Anne Coulter On Joe McCarthy
“I know he [McCarthy] got a bad rap because there are no monuments to Joe McCarthy. Liberals had to destroy McCarthy because he exposed the entire liberal establishment as having sheltered 
Soviet spies; If the internet, talk radio and Fox News had been around in McCarthy’s day, my book wouldn’t be the first time most people would be hearing the truth about McCarthyism.”
“The portrayal of Senator Joe McCarthy as a wild-eyed demagogue destroying innocent lives is sheer liberal hobgoblinism. Liberals weren’t cowering in fear during the McCarthy era. They were systematically undermining the nation’s ability to defend itself while waging a bellicose campaign of lies to blacken McCarthy’s name. Everything you think you know about McCarthy is a hegemonic lie. Liberals denounced McCarthy because they were afraid of getting caught, so they fought back like animals to hide their own collaboration with a regime as evil as the Nazis.”
“McCarthyism’ means pointing out positions taken by liberals that are unpopular with the American people. As former President Bush said, ‘Liberals do not like me talking about liberals.’ The reason they sob about the dark night of fascism under McCarthy is to prevent Americans from ever noticing that liberals consistently attack their own country.”
Anne Coulter On Earth
“The ethic of conservation is the explicit abnegation of man’s dominion over the Earth. The lower species are here for our use. God said so: Go forth, be fruitful, multiply, and rape the planet — it’s 
yours; God gave us the earth. We have dominion over the plants, the animals, the trees.”
“God said, ‘Earth is yours. Take it. Rape it. It’s yours. That’s our job: drilling, mining and stripping. Sweaters are the anti-Biblical view. Take big gas-guzzling cars with phones and CD players and wet bars — that’s the Biblical view.”
Anne Coulter On Global Warming
“Even right-wingers who know that “global warming” is a crock do not seem to grasp what the tree-huggers are demanding. Liberals want mass starvation and human devastation. There are more reputable scientists defending astrology than defending “global warming”.”
“When are liberals going to break the news to their friends in Darfur that they all have to starve to death to save the planet? But global warming is the most insane, psychotic idea liberals have ever 
concocted to kill off “useless eaters.” If we have to live in a pure “natural” environment like the Indians, then our entire transcontinental nation can only support about 1 million human beings. Sorry, fellahs — 299 million of you are going to have to go.”
“Liberals are already comfortably ensconced in their beachfront estates, which they expect to be unaffected by their negative growth prescriptions for the rest of us. Liberals haven’t the foggiest idea how the industrial world works. They act as if America could reduce its vast energy consumption by using fluorescent bulbs and driving hybrid cars rather than SUVs.”
“In fact, most scientists whose field is climatology and not, say, the mating habits of the zebra, do not believe we are in the midst of global warming. No matter what the weather does, it is invariably described as further evidence proving the authenticity of “global warming.” Climatologist Jane Fonda explained on her husband’s cable station a few years ago that the “invisible threat” of global warming includes the threat of an increased incidence of blizzards.”
Anne Coulter On War on Terror
“Not all Muslims may be terrorists, but all terrorists are Muslims; We should invade their countries, 
kill their leaders and convert them to Christianity. We weren’t punctilious about locating and punishing only Hitler and his top officers. We carpet-bombed German cities; we killed civilians. That’s war.”
“I’m getting a little fed up with hearing about, oh, civilian casualties, I think we ought to nuke North Korea right now just to give the rest of the world a warning. I just think it would be fun to nuke them.”
“When contemplating college liberals, you really regret once again that John Walker [Taliban American] is not getting the death penalty. We need to execute people like John Walker in order to physically intimidate liberals, by making them realize that they can be killed, too. Otherwise, they will turn out to be outright tra
itors.”
“Liberals become indignant when you question their patriotism, but simultaneously work overtime to give terrorists a cushion for the next attack and laugh at dumb Americans who love their country and hate the enemy.”
“The only subject fewer authentic Americans cared about than the treatment of prisoners at Guantanamo was World Cup Soccer. America is an epic global battle with ruthless savages who seek our destruction, and liberals are feeling sorry for the terrorists.”
“As millions of lunatic Muslims plot to murder Americans, some Americans — we call them “Soccer Moms” — will cast a vote to save Michael J. Fox this year. In the process, they will put all Americans at risk by voting for a frivolous, dying party.”
Anne Coulter On Liberals
“Liberals hate America, they hate flag-wavers, they hate abortion opponents and they hate all 
religions except Islam, post 9/11. Even Islamic terrorists don’t hate America like liberals do. They don’t have the energy. If they had that much energy, they’d have indoor plumbing by now; Liberals have absolutely no contact with the society they decry from their Park Avenue redoubts.”
“Liberals refuse to condemn what societies have condemned for thousands of years – e.g., promiscuity, divorce, illegitimacy, homosexuality; Liberals always get a lot of credit for suffering, while never actually being made to suffer; Liberals are always wrapping their comically irrelevant charges in a haze of lies; Liberals love America like O. J. loved Nicole.”
“Since liberals can’t just say that they hate democracy because democracy requires persuasion and compromise rather than brute political force, they accuse any potential “strict constructionists” of being closet slavery supporters. Ludicrous ad hominem attacks on conservative nominees are then used as a basis for the respectable press to refer to the nominee 
as “divisive.” You are “divisive” if you have been the victim of McCarthy slanders from the left.”
“Whether they are defending the Soviet Union or bleating for Saddam Hussein, liberals are always against America. They are either traitors or idiots, and on the matter of America’s self-preservation, the difference is irrelevant.”
“Usually it’s impossible to have the satisfaction of winning an argument with liberals because they are genetically programmed to pout and chant slogans rather than to engage in logical argument.”
Anne Coulter On Democrats
“In the history of the nation, there has never been a political party as ridiculous as today’s Democrats. It’s as if all the brain-damaged people in America got together and formed a voting bloc; Like the Democrats, Playboy just wants to liberate women to behave like pigs, have sex without consequences, prance about naked, and abort children; Taxes are like abortion, and not just because both are grotesque procedures supported by Democrats.”
“After repeatedly accusing John Ashcroft of essentially belonging to the Klan and harboring a secret 
desire to take away women’s right to vote and to murder them personally in back-alley abortions, the Democrats on the Senate Judiciary Committee made it clear that there would be no more Mr. Nice Guy when President Bush sends up his first Supreme Court nominee.”
“This from a candidate [John Edwards] (I almost said a “man”) whose campaign falsely accused the president of stealing an election, barring a million black voters from the polls, and sending a thousand American soldiers to their deaths just for oil.”
Anne Coulter On Fascism
“My libertarian friends are probably getting a little upset now but I think that’s because they never appreciate the benefits of local fascism; The presumption of innocence only means you don’t go right to jail.”
Anne Coulter On Swing Voters
“The swing voters—I like to refer to them as the idiot voters because they don’t have set philosophical principles. You’re either a liberal or you’re a conservative if you have 
an IQ above a toaster.”
Anne Coulter On Ethics
“Liberals become indignant when you question their patriotism, but simultaneously work overtime to give terrorists a cushion for the next attack and laugh at dumb Americans who love their country and hate the enemy.”
Anne Coulter On New York Times
“My only regret with Timothy McVeigh is he did not go to the New York Times building. Of course I 
regret it. I should have added ‘after everyone had left the building except the editors and the reporters’; The only standard journalists respect is: Will this story promote the left-wing agenda”
“The Times was rushing to assure its readers that ‘prominent Islamic scholars and theologians in the West say unequivocally that nothing in Islam countenances the Sept. 11 actions.’ Keep excluding the New York Times from all exclusive press briefings.”
“I think, on the basis of the recent Supreme Court ruling that we can’t execute the retarded, American journalists commit mass murder without facing the ultimate penalty. I think they are retarded. I’m trying to communicate to the American people and I have to work through a retarded person!”
“The New York Times editorial page is like an Ouija board that has only three answers, no matter what the question. The answers are: higher taxes, more restrictions on political speech and stricter gun control.”
Anne Coulter On Women
“I think [women] should be armed but should not vote. Women have no capacity to understand how money is earned. They have a lot of ideas on how to spend it It’s always more money on education, more money on child care, more money on day care.”
“It would be a much better country if women did not vote. That is simply a fact. In fact, in every presidential election since 1950 – except Goldwater in ‘64 – the Republican would have won, if only the men had voted.”
“These [9/11 widows] broads are millionaires, lionized on TV and in articles about them, reveling in their status as celebrities and stalked by grief-arazzis… These self-obsessed women seemed genuinely unaware that 9/11 was an attack on our nation and acted as if the terrorist attacks happened only to them… I’ve never seen people enjoying their husbands’ deaths so much.”
Anne Coulter On Welfare
“Then there are the 22 million Americans on food stamps. And of course there are the 39 million greedy geezers collecting Social Security. The greatest generation rewarded itself with a pretty big meal; The “backbone of the Democratic Party” is a “typical fat, implacable welfare recipient; To a disabled Vietnam vet: “People like you caused us to lose that war”.”
Anne Coulter On Schooling
“[A] cruise missile is more important than Head Start; I have to say I’m all for public flogging. One type of criminal that a public humiliation might work particularly well with is the juvenile delinquents, a lot of whom consider it a badge of honor to be sent to juvenile detention. And it 
might not be such a cool thing in the ‘hood to be flogged publicly. Few failures have been more spectacular.”
“Illiterate students knifing one another between acts of sodomy in the stairwell is just one of the many eggs that had to be broken to make the left’s omelet of transferring power from states to the federal government; If those kids had been carrying guns they would have gunned down this one [child] gunman. Don’t pray. Learn to use guns.”
Anne Coulter On Foreigners
“I’d build a wall. In fact, I’d hire illegal immigrants to build the wall. And throw out the illegal that are here. […] It’s cheap labor; When we were fighting communism, OK, they had mass murderers and gulags, but they were white men and they were sane. Now we’re up against absolutely insane 
savages;”
“They’re never very high in anyone’s caste system, are they? Poor little Pakis; Perhaps we could put aside our national, ongoing, post-9/11 Muslim butt-kissing contest and get on with the business at hand: Bombing Syria back to the stone age and then permanently disarming Iran.”
Anne Coulter On Canada
“Canada has become trouble recently; It’s always the worst Americans who go there; We could have taken them over so easy. But I only want the western part, with the ski areas, the cowboys, and the right wingers. They’re the only good parts of Canada; Because they speak French; [Canadians] better hope the United States does not roll over one night and crush them. They are lucky we allow them to exist on the same continent.”
Now that the Canadians finally know the score, it is time to end the Anthem to Ann Coulter, famous author, conservative, philosopher and commentator. And a fascist.
Endorsement of the Stern Report
I discussed the British Stern Report in my post Politics, Scandals, Mass Committees. Here are a few evaluations of the Stern Report by prominent scientists and leaders. These glowing statements differ a bit from my views. I sure know how to pick people to disagree with:
“If the world is waiting for a calm, reasonable, carefully argued approach to climate change, Nick Stern and his team have produced one. They outline a feasible adjustment policy at tolerable cost beginning now. Sooner is much better.” Robert M. Solow Nobel Prize economist 1987
“The Stern report shows us, with utmost clarity, while allowing fully for all the uncertainties, what Global Warming is going to mean; and what can and should be done to reduce it. It provides numbers for the economic impact, and for the necessary economic policies. It deserves the widest circulation. I wish it the greatest possible impact. Governments have a clear and immediate duty to accept the challenge it represents.” James Mirrlees Nobel Prize economist 1996
“The stark prospects of climate change and its mounting economic and human costs are clearly brought out in this searching investigation. What is particularly striking is the identification of ways and means of sharply minimizing these penalties through acting right now, rather than waiting for our lives to be overrun by rapidly advancing adversities. The world would be foolish to neglect this strong but strictly time-bound practical message.” Amartya Sen Nobel Prize economist 1998
“The Stern Review of the Economics of Climate Change provides the most thorough and rigorous analysis to date of the costs and risks of 
climate change, and the costs and risks of reducing emissions. It makes clear that the question is not whether we can afford to act, but whether we can afford not to act. To be sure, there are uncertainties, but what it makes clear is that the downside uncertainties—aggravated by the complex dynamics of long delays, complex interactions, and strong nonlinearly—make a compelling case for action. And it provides a comprehensive agenda—one which is economically and politically feasible—behind which the entire world can unite in addressing this most important threat to our future well being.” Joseph Stiglitz Nobel Prize economist 2001
“The [World] Bank is committed to addressing the dangers of climate change and has made substantial progress in developing an Investment Framework for Clean Energy And Development. I very much welcome the Stern Review which provides a much needed critical economic analysis of the issues associated with climate change, and complements the recent IEA technology assessment and the World Bank’s Clean Energy Investment Framework paper. The Bank is today working closely with its clients and partners to turn our analysis into practice, and will seek to substantially increase its own investment flows and those of the private sector. A crucial next step is to involve the private sector in the EIF. I am therefore pleased to support a partnership between the World Bank and the World Economic Forum and the World Business Council on Sustainable Development to stimulate private sector investment through the Energy Investment Framework. Chancellor Gordon Brown and I will co-host a co
nference early next year to launch the partnership.” Paul Wolfowitz President of the World Bank
“The Stern Review of the Economics of Climate Change is a vital step forward in securing an effective global policy on climate change. Led by one of the world’s top economists, the Stern Review shows convincingly that the benefits of early global action to mitigate climate change will be far lower than the costs. The report establishes realistic guidelines for action (based on long-term stabilization ceilings for GHGs), core elements of an effective global policy (carbon pricing, technology policy, and removing barriers to change), and a framework for international cooperation that must include all regions of the world, both developed and developing. The Stern Review will play an important role in helping the world to agree on a sensible post-Kyoto policy.” Prof. Jeffrey D. Sachs Director of the Earth Institute at Columbia University Special Advisor to UN Secretary General Kofi 
Annan
“The Economics of Climate Change sends a very important and timely message: that the benefits of strong, early action on climate change outweigh the costs. That conclusion is one that the International Energy Agency fully endorses – notably in its World Energy Outlook 2006 to be published next week. Congratulations to Sir Nick Stern and his team for producing a landmark review which I have no doubt will strengthen the political will to change of governments around the world.” Claude Mandil Executive Director of the International Energy Agency
“Climate change can impose enormous costs on mankind and particularly on the innocent poor people. The uncertainty that is used as an excuse not to act works both ways. If the impact is larger than expected it could be catastrophic. Sir Nick Sterns report is valuable as it shows the need to act now and that the costs of action are modest. One hopes it will spur to action those who are responsible for creating this threat.” Kirit Parikh Member, Planning Commission, Government of India
“The scientific evidence of Global Warming is overwhelming but some commentators and lobby groups have continued to oppose offsetting actions on economic and competitiveness grounds. This comprehensive and authoritative report demolishes their arguments, explaining clearly the complex economics of climate change. It makes plain that we can cut emissions radically at a cost to the economy far less than the economic and human welfare costs which 
climate change could impose.” Adair Turner Former Director of UK Confederation of British Industry and Economic Advisor to Sustainable Development Commission
“When the history of the world’s response to climate change is written, the Stern Review will be recognized as a turning point. Sir Nicholas and his team have provided important intellectual leadership as humanity engages with its greatest challenge. While the details will be debated, the main thrust of the report is clear and compelling — the expected benefits of tackling climate change far outweigh the expected costs.” Cameron Hepburn Oxford University
“I support the Stern Review’s conclusion that there is a strong economic case for taking early, effective action to reduce GHG emissions. This clearly has important implications for transport policy, which my own study is taking into account – sustainable economic growth cannot be achieved in any sector without tackling the effects of our actions on the environment”. Sir Rod 
Eddington Adviser to the UK Government on the long term links between transport and economic growth, and former Chief Executive of British Airways
Surely this is an impressive collection of very distinguished, famous and extremely smart people with more credentials than just about any collection of mortals. I have to admit my Masters degree pales considerably. In the presence of Gods….. run like hell?
I don’t think so. Read the comments. Beyond generic and very enthusiastic praise, where is the meat? Do you see any significant additions of intelligence or knowledge to the value of the Report? I sure don’t. I’d expect this distinguished audience to provide a contribution rather than back slapping. In fact, the comments have everything in common with the author to author nonsense reviews you find in supermarket paperbacks.
Critique of the Stern Report
There are growing amounts of negative views. Here is one by Christopher Monckton as published by the UK’s Telegraph news paper. His main point, apart from all the polemic stuff, is that we are 1) running out of conventional energy and 2) existing energy plants are getting old (except in China). His solution: build lots of nuclear power plants starting now. Here is the polemic:
- “Undervalued the sun’s effects on historical and contemporary climate, slashed the natural greenhouse effect, overstated the past century’s temperature increase, repealed a fundamental law of physics and tripled the man-made greenhouse effect.”
- “The atrocious economic, political and environmental cost of the high-tax, zero-freedom, bureaucratic centralism implicit in Stern’s report; I’ll compare the global-warming scare with previous sci-fi alarums; and I’ll show how the environmentalists’ “precautionary principle” (get the state to interfere now, just in case) is killing people.”
- “Why haven’t air or sea temperatures turned out as the UN’s models predicted? Because the science is bad, the “consensus” is wrong.”
Here is more from the same author. Although he provides no explanation to some of the points below, he does address others in great detail. His material is worth reading: the source document is 40 pages of considered analysis. Here he trashes Global Warming theories big time by claiming:
- That the debate is over and all credible climate scientists are agreed. False.
- That temperature rose above millennial variability and is exceptional. Very unlikely.
- That a change in solar irradiance is an insignificant forcing mechanism. False.
- That the last century’s increases in temperature are correctly measured. Unlikely.
- That greenhouse-gas is the main forcing agent of temperature. Not proven.
- That temperature will rise far enough to do more harm than good. Very unlikely.
- That continuing greenhouse-gas emission will be very harmful to life. Unlikely.
- That a carbon-emission limit would make a definite difference. Very unlikely.
- That the environmental remediation will be cost-effective. Very unlikely.
- That taking precautions, just in case, would be the responsible course. False.
The views above received, as you might expect, quite a critical response. Here is the response to the responses. I agree with the response below, but not with the opinions above:
- The sheer vitriol is the most striking thing. Reputable scientists, who raise questions about climate change, backing their doubts with data, are howled down as heretics. The UN-Stern-Kyoto thesis is considered to be above criticism.
- Simply to point out that there are few hard facts to go on, and that we are all necessarily engaging in a degree of guesswork, is to open yourself to the charge of being in the pay of the oil corporations. This allegation, when you think about it, is daft. No one would condemn his grandchildren to extinction simply to suck up to Exxon-Mobil.
Read on – here is another negative view based on comments by Bjorn Lomborg, perhaps the most influential opponent to the theories of Global Warming. He is a Danish Business School Professor and the controversial author of the book “The Skeptical Environmentalist”. Many scientists are skeptical of Lomberg’s scientific integrity:
- Unfortunately, this claim [the cost of inaction far exceeds what is need to fix the problem] falls apart when one actually reads the 700-page tome. Despite using many good references, the Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change is selective and its conclusion flawed. Its fear-mongering arguments have been sensationalized, which is ultimately only likely to make the world worse off.
- The review correctly points out that climate change is a real problem, and that it is caused by human greenhouse-gas emissions. Little else is right, however, and the report seems hastily put-together, with many sloppy errors. As an example, the cost of hurricanes in the U.S. is said to be both 0.13% of U.S. GDP and 10 times that figure.
- With clever marketing and sensationalist headlines, the Stern review is about to edge its way into our collective consciousness. The suggestion that flooding will overwhelm us has already been picked up by commentators, yet going back to the background reports properly shows declining costs from flooding and fewer people at risk. The media is now quoting Mr. Stern’s suggestion that climate change will wreak financial devastation that will wipe 20% off GDP; explicitly evoking memories of past financial catastrophes such as the Great Depression or World War II; yet the review clearly tells us that costs will be 0% now and just 3% in 2100.
- …. Asked 24 U.N. ambassadors – from nations including China, India and the U.S.–to prioritize the best solutions for the world’s greatest challenges, in a project known as Copenhagen Consensus. They looked at what spending money to combat climate change and other major problems could achieve. They found that the world should prioritize the need for better health, nutrition, water, sanitation and education, long before we turn our attention to the costly mitigation of global warning.
A curious view on the US reaction to the report:
- Kristen Hellmer, spokeswoman at the Council on Environmental Quality, which advises the White House as saying: “The president has long recognized that climate change is a serious issue, and he has committed the US to advancing and investing in new technologies to help address this problem. The US government has produced an abundance of economic analysis on the issue of climate change. The Stern report is another contribution to that effort.” And that was it. The mighty FT could apparently find no other quote from anyone more senior.
- We could find no reference to the Stern report on the CNN Money, or CBS market watch, or Business Week sites. The Voice of America publication published the news of the report all right, but its headline read: “Environmental Skeptic Questions British Climate Report”
These reviews are not coming from crack pots – except perhaps the last “US reactions”. The authors of the top two opinions do present valid critique. The first critique cites flawed analysis because of 
false historical temperature data. The second opinion makes an economic argument that the Stern report uses flawed assumptions in its cost/benefit analysis. There is no real way to tell who is right. Neither argument really has anything to do with Global Warming and its dangers. It’s just a matter of nit-picking.
The US reaction to the Stern Report is interesting because there hardly was an immediate reaction. The White House as well as Congress ignored the whole thing. News agencies buried the report, at least initially. Most publicity was dominantly negative. The White House claims to have an abundance of its own reports, none of which they act on and none of which seem available to any one. Classified, are they? Or perhaps they do not actually exist. Allegedly, George W. Bush spent $8 billion on climate research. Where on Earth did he put it? In 
Cheney’s office?
On Nov. 30 2006, I made a simple search on Goggle’s news page for “Stern Report”. Of the top 100 responses, NOT ONE was from a major US news organization. Not one. Nor was there anything from the US scientific world. Nothing – then for the fun of it, I changed the search to “Howard Stern”. Guess what, the results turned upside down – no shortage of US views at all. Then I searched the White House site for the Stern Report (not Howard) – nothing. Then I checked EPA’s site – nothing. Searching the Senate site did return two references: both simple reprints of news articles, including the critical Lomborg opinion above. TWO returns in essentially all of the US.
Ignoring international opinion, the US GHG e
missions are increasing at a record setting pace. The US industry largely disregards the “voluntary” measures invented by George W. Bush. Democrats have been too focused on winning an election by having no opinions on anything. What will change the world’s by far largest polluter? It is clear the Stern Report will have zero impact.
In the UK, both Tony Blair and Gordon Brown strongly endorse the report. Well, first, it is a British government report. Second, Tony Blair very much would like to see his tarnished record end on an upswing. Third, Gordon Brown has a political future to consider. Whatever the reasons, it is nice to see someone attempting leadership.
Public opinions in the US
The public US response to the Stern report is almost non existent. The report was recently published in the US but is also available as a download. I doubt 
many have plowed through it or the full online version. The hardcover version’s sales rank on Amazon is 102,381, not exactly a best seller. There are zero reviews. In Britain, Amazon’s local store lists the Report with a rank of 5,604, better but still not a best seller.
By contrast, Al Gore’s book “An Inconvenient Truth” ranks at 312, a whole lot better. The Gore DVD ranks at an astonishing 16 in DVDs. There are hundreds of reviews of the Gore book and DVD. Below is a sample of these reviews.
I’ve deliberately chosen the negative views although the positive reviews outnumber the negative ones by at least 10 to 1. I believe the negative views count for more since they are what US politicians want to hear:
- It’s beyond crying “wolf” – he has been yelling “wolf” at the top of his crazed lungs for years. This book gives almost no quarter to the legions of scientists who disagree with him. It is a sad requiem on a politician whose day has come and gone. And he is the only one that doesn’t know it.
- Oh please… what scientific background does this guy have???? What a joke! The stuff in this book is more sophomoric than a prom. This is a political treatise with no scientific value at all. What is my degree in? Well, I have 3: BS chemistry, MS environmental science and a JD (Law).
- For the lunatic Lefties and Wing nuts, this is a “Bible”. From someone who lost an election, whined and whimpered until told to “shut up” by the USSC, we get this garbage dumped on the fools who would believe it. The $$$ spent on this book could go far elsewhere, like stopping the hot air deluge from the Bush-Haters (aka, sore losers)
- 96.5% of all carbon dioxide emissions are from natural sources; mankind is responsible for only 3.5%, with 0.6% coming from fuel to move vehicles, and about 1% from fuel to heat buildings. Unless someone has a plan to “curb” these natural sources, it is very clear that we, as a world-population, have very, very little to do with the changes our plant may or may not be undergoing.
- There are billions of dollars in grant money being thrown around to study Global Warming, which is why scientists need to keep the lie alive. The basis of their argument is flawed and actually quite arrogant. This planet has been in existence for hundreds of millions of years.
- We will look back a few years from now and see that ‘Global Warming’ is nothing but a hoax. Then we will spend a lot of time trying to figure out why so many people got taken by it. We will also spend a lot of time trying to figure out why some people (hint, hint) who are totally unequipped to deal with scientific data are the most virulent advocates of ‘Global Warming’ and of the economically-destructive steps needed to revert an imaginary catastrophe.
- This self-serving political tract is nothing but an obvious attempt to revive All Gore’s career. Gore first callously uses the auto accident that nearly killed his son to make us believe that he’s not as shallow as he looks. Then, he misuses information from the liberal media to falsely conclude that Global Warming is an established truth, when in fact it is a theory with as many holes in it as sourdough bread.
- Al Gore, your an tree-hugging maniac that beats this drum for two reasons: money and to stir the crazy pot for support. Maybe your next book should be the biography of the uni-bomber. After all, you and he have a lot of common thoughts. Of course, he lived in a shack and practiced his anti-industry beliefs. You on the other hand fly all over the world, travel in limos and SUVs and then whine about people like me who own a 2 cycle mower, blower and weed eater.
- I have read the book and it is all a butch of hogwash yes it is true that the world is getting warmer but the earth goes through cycles like say the ice age. Some scientists believe that we will have an ice age soon because back in the 1300’s when they had a mini ice age their weather had been warmer than average before the ice age. The ethanol will not change our reliance on foreign oil if we used all the corn grown in the US we would only get 13% of the fuel that we use in our cars. Maybe Al gore should get a brain, a personality, and stop trying to be a scientist.
- This piece of fiction is so full of distortions and outright lies that it boggles the mind. The Aral Sea, Mount Kilimanjaro examples used by Gore are pure fiction. If he believes his examples and truly does not know the scientific and easily obtained truth, then he is just ignorant, if he knows the truth about these examples, then he is just a bald faced liar.
- Has the temperature of the earth kicked up a bit? Yes, about 1/2 degree F since 1900. Is it going to drop again (as part of the foundational knowledge about earth science any high schooled should know. Yes. The current temperature increase peaked 1998-99. The temp will now drop for a few dozen years, and then increase again. Is it magic? No. Is it because we have too many internal combustion engines? No. Is it because we cut too many trees? No. Is it the hot air coming from Al Gore and his radical socialist handlers? No. The root cause of the increasing and decreasing temperature of the earth’s waters, mean temperatures etc is….THE SUN! We have data. We have correlations. We have darned good scientists who spend their lives working in this area. We don’t have yet have a complete understanding of why the sun warms and cools, but we will someday. And you can bet it won’t be because the Republicans are in power. Another scientist who KNOWS Gore’s conclusions are a crock.
- The ‘facts’ that Gore are dated, discredited and in some cases, downright fraudulent. Do your own research and you will see that this is the case. An overwhelming number of scientists that DO NOT have a federal grant or research dollars at risk do not agree with the conclusion of this film (I just can’t force myself to call it a documentary…) Don’t waste your time with this propaganda and attempt to get you to agree to even MORE taxes!!
- There are countless scientists who give no credence whatsoever to the notion of a man-made climate change. The whole notion of “global warming” was based upon an incorrect computer model that could in no way take all parameters and data into account. In this movie we are lectured to by a boring idiot whose only recourse to changing the political world is through environmental scare tactics.
- Humanity may indeed be causing Global Warming and such a warming may indeed have consequences for human convenience, but to imply the planet is threatened with destruction is fear mongering. The planet has seen far more severe climate changes than what we might experience and such changes have neither destroyed the planet nor the life upon it.
- Humanity has a tremendous capacity to adapt and any climate changes will happen slowly enough that we can adapt to them. So we have to move beach houses or plant crops in new areas, does any thinking person really believe that we can’t handle such changes and that humanity will drown because we are too stupid to avoid seas that rise by a few centimeters per year? Give me a break. The real agenda behind Gore’s tirade is to create fear. Liberals love to create fear; it is one of their power bases.
- Just listen to NPR, one fear story after another. Oh woe is us! The planet is dying! It’s all our fault! It’s all Bush’s fault! All this hand wringing is simple political maneuvering. The liberals want to create fear and then use that fear to obtain votes. You can read the other reviews to see how successful they have been in brainwashing their supporters.
- Al Gore and company need to get their facts straight before setting image to celluloid, but that’s never stopped them before. “An Inconvenient Truth” is junk science promoted by the loony liberal left and is just another scare tactic that they will embrace as their cause du jour.
- The predictions of Global Warming are based on computer models done by some scientists who have made a great living out of scaring the bejesus out of the rest of us. Those are the same type of models who told us in the 70’s to prepare for global cooling and the return of the Ice Age. Just as figures don’t lie and liars can figure, a computer model can be made to produce any desired outcome that the programmer wants. And the Gore crowd wants doom, gloom and disaster. Coming right up!!
- Al Gore is at it again with his liberal environmentalist whacko issues of the so-called Global Warming. We cannot say it’s the truth, and it should only be based on theory. Global Warming is only used by liberals as a scare tactic. Al Gore spent too much time growing up as a city slicker in Washington when his segregationist daddy, Al Sr., was in the Senate. Gore only relies on data released by these so-called environmentalists.
- How inconvenient that news this week reports that Global Warming on a scale we can’t even imagine happened millions of years ago. Evidence of tropical temps in polar sea beds says that that this isn’t the first time we have had global climate change. Al Gore is convincing and passionate. To bad he only used half the facts he needs for a complete presentation. In the 1970’s there was a big uproar about global COOLING, what happened to the science behind that? Just because we get a well made argument, and a terrific film made, does not make it true.
- Having seen this movie at a preview, I can say that Gore is every bit the equal of Michael Moore. This is to say, he’s a liar and a propagandist. Another reviewer summed up the truth nicely – there is in fact a Global Warming trend, and it may cause problems. But there is NO evidence that this trend is due to human causes or influences, and in fact, all evidence points to the contrary. Unless you’re making up your facts, that is. Inconvenient indeed.
- This movie stands next to Triumph of the Will as one of the greatest propaganda films of all time. It’s amazing how Al Gore spins together made-up “facts” and half-truths to make a case that wouldn’t even convince a Green Peace member. Al Gore can not get around the indisputable fact that there is zero evidence of human-caused Global Warming. Sorry Al, we aren’t falling for your doom and gloom lies and innuendo.
In line with other parts of this post, many confuse the issue of Global Warming with their dislike of Gore personally and sinister liberals in general. It is, again, abundantly clear how politicized this issue is. Conservatives discount the risks of Global Warming. Democrats endorse the necessity to combat the ill effects. And Bush will veto anything referring to Global Warming.
Next and Previous
Here is a summary of the nine main posts in the essay. Navigation links are located just below the summary.
GlobalWarming:1 discusses why Global Warming happened, who and what causes it, ending up with a list of villains. It did not go into the consequences of Global Warming. There was no 
discussion of impacts on the oceans, the Arctic, Greenland, El Nino, ecosystems, the weather, tundra and ice packs. The Kyoto Protocol or the Stern reports or other Global Warming topics were not covered. That is yet to come.
GlobalWarming:2 covers two main subjects. The UN provides a real mixed bag of positive and negative influences on the fight against Global Warming. The positive is that they try, have some credibility and many resources. The negative is that they fail. The current versions of the Kyoto Protocol and its associated reports do not reduce emissions. The CER system causes more harm than good. Solutions exist but are not acted on. Industrial strategies and national policies do little to reduce Global Warming – in fact, the opposite is often true in spite of rhetorical lip service.
Global Warming:3 examines the basic root cause of our problem: rising temperatures. Is the increase real and does it matter? Is it natural or caused by man? Are the temperatures unusual compared to history? Do GHGs actually cause the increase? What can past temperature variations tell us about what we face today? Can you even trust the basic data and analysis of temperatures? The post answers those and other questions in exuberant detail.
GlobalWarming:4 notes that Global Warming is not the first disaster forecast ever done, published and hyped. There were many in the past and as a rule they failed. The disaster in question simply did not happen because extending some historical trend into the future does not work – trends 
change. So the question is – why is this particular doom and gloom outlook right? What is different this time? As you will see, plenty is different.
GlobalWarming:5 reviews the role and issues of population growth. This is a vital issue for future emissions as shown in GlobalWarming:1. Historically over the past 250 years, the explosive growth in populations explains two thirds of the increase in GHG emissions. The rise in personal carbon use must be reversed as must other issues related to unbalanced growth in populations.
GlobalWarming:6 probes why Global Warming turned into a polarizing mess. History plays a role. Emotions such as fear impacts judgments. Lack of perspective is limiting true understanding. Lack of knowledge and clouded judgments don’t help. Many agendas are hidden from view. Rarely in human history have so many ignored so simple requirements for no good reason.
The current GlobalWarming:7 summarizes some important and a few not so important opinions on Global Warming. Global Warming is a battle ground, galvanizing the left against the right, neo conservatists against liberals, the sane against those not quite sane, the Religious Right against evangelists, politicians against constituents, reactionaries against activists, bloggers against
bloggers, late show hosts against ratings, journalists against circulations, spokespersons against skeptics and, not least, scientists against scientists. This post contains a small sample of the rare truth, accusations, biases, opinions and propaganda thrown left and right, up and down.
GlobalWarming:8 is perhaps the meat of this series. It gets into the details of what is happening right now in the some 25 different real life areas. The true impacts of Global Warming range from ocean bottoms to mountain tops, from oil fields to highways, from tundra to tropics and from farm fields to smoke stacks. These items are not forecasts, assumptions or opinions but verifiable hard facts. The picture is indicative of your, and my, future. The earthly signs get worse by the day.
GlobalWarming:9 paints three scenarios (not forecasts) of what might happen in 
the future. There are pessimistic, optimistic and middle of the road pictures. The three scenarios use simple, common sense assumptions, very different from the elaborate, multi million $ systems enjoyed by the UN, the Stern Report, EPA and others. The big systems rely on myriads of assumptions as input, many of which aren’t really known and/or subject to lots of complexity. I favor the KISS approach.
I’m by no means competing with the “big” studies or the smart people putting them together. I used to be a forecasting guru working for the UN, the World Bank, FAO, OECD, the EU and many Fortune 500 companies. I guess I have a right to an opinion. No one is required to consider my views.
I am completely nonaffiliated. No political party enjoys (or wants) my support. I hav
e no axe to grind. I receive no monetary compensations, grants or sponsorships. There are no PayPal buttons on these pages. I have no obligations to fulfill. Office politics do not thrive around here. I promote no agendas except my own – the survival of us all. Occasionally, I put up some of the photos from my portfolios and my photo business.
GlobalWarming:8-9 will follow together with other commentaries and follow ups. Hang in there. The links below help you navigate this monster essay. It’s all quite important to your health.
| GW:1 | GW:2 | GW:3 | GW:4 | GW:5 | GW:6 | GW:7 | GW:8 | GW:9 |
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Quick News 2 – The Deafening Silence of Democrats
March 23, 2007
Hillary Clinton. Barack Osama. John Edwards. Bill Richardson. Nancy Pelosi. Harry Reid. Democratic Masters of Silence. Three issues: Global Warming. The War in Iraq. The War on Terror. Silence. Utter Silence. Why aren’t these people speaking up? Why do they fade into the walls any time these three issues surface? They have the power, the means, the mandate and the obligation to act. Small decoys do not produce. Non binding compromises do not count. Token subpoenas are cute but then what? Hearings are nice if they go beyond grandstanding.
On the opposing end and without a mandate: George W. Bush, the Decider with his out of touch speech and army of crook lawyers. Dick Cheney with his gun. Karl Rove plotting in his closet. Joe Lieberman the traitor. John McCain the God-Knows-What. Rudy Giuliani – the Loose Cannon. Mitt Romney – the CEO with a Marketing Idea. A wealthy gang of Religious Righties and Neo Cons, enjoying less tax. Oil companies aching to drill the ultimate hole in the ground, tundra, sea board or wherever they fancy a trace of carbon emissions may hide. Talk show fascists. Fanatical bloggers and writers in magazines no one ever heard of. Ann Coulter. NRA. None of these people shut up. They yell. They demand. Silence is unknown. Take no prisoners. Just roll over them Democrats, mandate or not
The Problem
My recent post: Global Warming 6: Terror, Wars, Fears and Paralysis wondered why Global Warming is so hard a subject to deal with. I wondered why this particular issue, as deadly as it might be, is delegated to the back of the U.S. closet by every one in charge. I compared Global Warming to the sulphur dioxide crisis of the 1960s and the more recent ozone hole problem. Both of these latter issues were resolved with little fuss. Likewise, Global Warming can be successfully dealt with if the inertia of silence and mysterious resistance is dealt with. But the silence and inertia appears unlimited.
I wondered why Global Warming, which so clearly may be lethal, does not evoke past crisis spirits such as during WWII, Vietnam or 9/11. Then people closed rank and won. WWII was won. The US won by finally getting out of Vietnam. 9/11 was initially won. With dissidents in real low numbers, the World condemned the 9/11 attacks till Bush screwed up by 1) entering a vague, undefined War on Terror that made no sense to anyone sober enough, 2) invading and destroying two Islam countries, thus accelerating terrorism and 3) engaging in endless illegal maneuvers, lies and intimidations while suppressing truth, laws, treaties and ethical standards for self serving purposes.
Misguided as the Republicans, Religious Right and Neo Cons may be, the least their policies are clear, if devastating. But the Democrats say one thing and do another or, actually, do very little. If in fact they do something it makes little difference. Spineless? Fear ridden? You judge. Ask your favorite Presidential candidate some questions. Attend a town meeting with your Congressman. Speak up. Put a sign in your front yard or window. Take to the streets. It’s your country.
The People
In the post mentioned, I argued that there were essentially two reasons why the people of the US are not responding to these crises. The first reason is a total disillusion with, and apathy towards, its government and George W. Bush in particular. You enjoy his slaughter of language, lack of coherent thought and appreciate he is dumber than you are. It may be amusing as long as your kid isn’t an Iraqi statistic. Maybe you overlook the fact he may kill more than any President or national leader in history. Really.
The second reason for the inertia in us, the people, is plain fear due to all the uncertainties, mixed messages and storm signs. Add the confusion from an endless, mixed bag of information or disinformation floating around without pause. Never in the history of mankind has so much junk been forced on so many by so few, be it Global Warming, the various Wars, Swift Boats, faked Apple 1984 ads, VA hospitals, US Attorneys, undercover CIA agent disclosures, gun happy Vice Presidents or a totally in-over-his-head President.
Then we have the endlessly fascinating charades of Paris Hilton fully clothed or not, Anna Nicole Smith dead or alive, Britney Spears sober or not, Howard Stern, FOX, 360 Cooper, Newt Gingrich the Ladies’ Man, Rush Limbaugh the Viagra Guy and Ann Coulter the Marlboro Man grabbing the attention of the channels for a few minutes at the time. Are Jerry Springer, Ricki Lake and Jenny Jones still around? I hope not. It’s confusing enough as it is without worrying about twin-headed lesbian Ku Klux Klaners from Outer Space.
Every piece of fact or misinformation is printed, newscast, talk showed, blogged, spoken, podcast, voice mailed, YouTubed, downloaded, uploaded, emailed, serialized, falsified, water cooled, RSSed, bookmarked, chat roomed, iPodded, Ann Coulter faggotized, Photoshopped, eHarmonized, pdf’d, pirated, news released, multi mediated, socially networked, filibustered, Bluetoothed, SMS’d, invented by Al Gore or shared in any other of the thousands of ways humans miscommunicate these days. Amazingly, it’s only a few decades ago that the main channel was newspapers and newspapers only with some Evening News thrown in.
People are completely overloaded with too much nonsense served too fast to be able to focus on any particular issue. The whole bloody world is at our door step, forcing its way in over our battered bodies. The people can’t deal with the overload and the politicians don’t dare, every one maintaining their deafening silence. And the tragedies just keep coming and coming.
The Powers
Early 2007, the Democrats took over both US Houses after a strong showing in the 2006 elections. The people clearly spoke – stop US involvement in Iraq. The new Democratic majority is not truly responding. Yes, there are some ineffectual attempts. Non binding this or that, adding addendums here and there, a few toothless hearings and, gasp, subpoenaing so and so. Supposedly the concern is “not to be weak” and to “support out troops”. How is putting the troops in deadly danger for no good reason “supporting them”? Get real. In what way does spending 100s of billions on a hopeless cause benefit the troops, the American people or the world? Do get real.
It is not just Congress ducking the issues and effectively letting Bush destroy the world. I started out by mentioning four 2008 Democratic challengers for the US Presidency. Hillary Clinton – trying desperately to hide her earlier support for Iraq and Bush. Barack Osama – “I wasn’t around so don’t blame me”. John Edwards – “I’m the Domestic Guy and my wife is sick”. Bill Richardson – still around? Al Gore – patiently waiting for the call with an Oscar and plenty of $$$ in his back pocket.
None of these Democratic candidates offer a clear strategy for dealing with Global Warming, the War on Terror or the Wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. They do not begin to deal with the nuclear threats of North Korea or Iran. They ignore Putin’s strategy of using energy to blackmail Europe. None of them offer believable answers to health care, social security or budget deficits. They apparently have no more clues about what to do than the intellectually challenged George W. Bush or the devious pair of Dick Cheney and Karl Rove.
The Spirit
Where is the spirit of the Revolutionary War, the Alamo, D-Day, Iwo Jima or Rose the Riveter? Where are the forces of the Civil Rights and Anti War movements of the 1960s and early 1970s? There isn’t even a decent Woodstock any more. The police and fire fighters responding to the WTC catastrophe did not change the world. Nor did the few heroes of Katrina drum up a national effort to rebuild New Orleans, leaving it to a hapless government.
Today March 22 2007, Howard Fineman of Newsweek published “The Timid Politics of War” with the byline “A generation ago, Vietnam blew up politics as we knew it. Why isn’t that happening now?” He asks the same questions I do, more or less. Read the article, the link is above. A major point is negative power of the silence, rather than the babble of the rhetoric. The silence on these issues is stupefying and earth shattering.
So what am I saying? We really are facing serious issues that will define our future. It is inconceivable that politicians be allowed to default on the outcome by being, of all things, silent. Likewise, it is without excuse that we the people stay quiet and let these politicians get away with it. In the past, there were overwhelming demonstrations of the power of ordinary people in the face of crisis. We need that power now.
Remember the Londoners during the Nazi Blitz. Think about the Hamburgians during the Allied fire bombings. Did you ever experience the Hungarian or Czech barehanded uprisings against the Soviet tanks? What about the struggles of the campuses in the late 1960s, early 1970s? Consider the Tiananmen Square protests in face of massive troops and tanks. Did you see Boris Yeltsin single handedly preventing the return of Soviet hardliners? Do you remember the Civil Rights workers in Mississippi just 40 years ago or the courage of Rosa Parks 50 years ago? Or may you recall the fire fighters heading UP the stairs of the WTC?
The Obstructions
Many of us suffer from tensions, ignorance, pressures, greed and envy, lies and deceptions, inertia and overloading and, simply, Modern Life. Too many need unparalleled amounts of antidepressants, sleeping pills, tranquilizers, Yoga, recovery centers, rehab, therapy, marathon runs, hypnosis, relaxation exercises, self help books, face lifts, tattoos, anti harassment rules, exercise machines, weight programs – pills – food and diets, subconscious tape messages, reality shows, Tums, herbal treatments, nail enhancement, health spas, bleached teeth, botox treatments, Viagra, breast enhancement, Internet porn, perfect abs, alcohol, drugs and a lot more from the billions of dollar “Coping Industry”.
Most of these items were completely unknown just 50 years ago, now they are crucial to our well being. Our brains truly must be cooked. Can the pills be beaten so we get on with surviving? Clearly, society has changed in a way that is detrimental to facing important issues – such as the three I mentioned. Such as survival. Such as a will to confront Wrongs.
The Consequences
The inertia will have consequences. I’ll just point to one issue: Global Warming. Derided by some, ignored by almost every American politician from George W, Bush to Osama Barack, here is what the upcoming UN report has to say (Follow this link for more – “The Bleakest Outlook Yet“):
Geography, Areas and Life Styles
- The effects of Global Warming are happening far faster than believed earlier. Climate changes are now impacting physical and biological systems on every continent. Global Warming will affect everyone’s lives, in particular the lives of the poorest. Life styles across the world will change, mostly for the worse.
- Africa and Asia will be hit the hardest followed by small island communities. On a relative basis, North America, Europe and Australia face the least impacts. Yet, hurricanes and wildfires already cause major disruptions to North American social, cultural and biological ecosystems. Australia is experiencing a drought partly blamed on Global Warming.
Agriculture, Starvation and Forestry
- The agriculture sector will face major upheavals as their ecosystems move north (south in the Southern Hemisphere) and existing farm land cannot follow. The forest sector faces the same issue.
- The forestry sector will see temporary improvements due to a longer growing season. It will face major upheavals later as its ecosystems move north (south in the Southern Hemisphere) and existing forests cannot follow.
- There will be temporary relief in some agricultural areas, such as soybeans and rice production in Latin America, due to longer growing seasons. Later, 200-600 million people will suffer starvation as agricultural ecosystems are destroyed.
Health and Fresh Water
- Health issues will result in higher death rates. Malnutrition, diarrhea, malaria and dengue fever will grow dramatically. Human allergies are mushrooming due to increased pollens. Smog in the US will cause severe health hazards.
- Hundreds of millions of Africans, tens of millions of Latin Americans and more than a billion of Asians will lack sufficient fresh water.
Ecosystems and Extinctions
- We are truly standing at the edge of mass extinction. Species’ habits and habitants are changing rapidly. Half of Europe’s spaces are vulnerable to extinction.
- Polar bears will only be found in zoos, their northern habitat melted into oblivion. Other polar animals will follow into extinction. Half of Europe’s species are threatened. Pests such as fire ants will thrive.
Oceans, Flooding, Coasts, Arctic and Ice
- Oceans and coastal ecosystems face the most damages. Wetlands will be lost. 100 million people may be flooded out of their lands because of rising sea levels. Coastal flooding might eliminate millions of homes.
- Coral reefs are killed by bleaching. The Great Barrier Reef could become functionally extinct in less than 20 years.
- Transportation, e.g. the Northwest Passage, will “improve” in Arctic regions. This alone may lead to major ecological problems as newly accessible areas are exploited.
- Alpine glaciers in Europe and elsewhere will disappear. Greenland ice sheets decline. The North Pole is no longer under a solid ice pack in the summer.
European and Other Events
In a striking difference to the White House version of the US, EU and Europe are acting on Global Warming by creating mandatory, binding ceilings on emissions. In the US, California ignores the White House and plan similar measures as do other states.
This is an update of Quick News #1
The UK is getting real about Global Warming by outlining binding legislation to cut carbon dioxide emissions by 60% by 2050. The Bill also sets targets of 26-32% cuts by 2020. Parts of the opposition favor 80% cuts, or even 90%. Government assistance will enable insulation of 8 million homes over the next ten years. UK is on track to meet all Kyoto Protocol goals. Government officials stressed the UK’s leadership in the War on Global Warming with a clear eye towards the lack of leadership or action from the US.
Simultaneously, The UK enters direct cooperation with California, bypassing the inertia of George W. Bush. Arnold Schwarzenegger, Californian maverick, called Tony Blair an action hero for inspiring the introduction of a law committing California to an 80% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050. Mr. Schwarzenegger said: “It is very clear the Prime Minister has been a great inspiration to many, many countries all over the world… I think he is a pioneer, because he has had the guts to sign the Kyoto treaty and to show to the world that you can protect the environment and protect the economy at the same time.” California introduced its first Global Warming legislation in 206 – this is the second step.
Have the Blair or California Governments gone insane? Won’t this madness bankrupt the whole world (or the US as Mr. Bush claims without proof)? Of course not, the UK hopes to make big money on its leadership. They have key parts of the technology to make reductions of this magnitude possible. So do others, including the EU, US and California in particular. If you view these emission reduction plans as some form of misbegotten charity, you are very much on the wrong track. Incidentally, California is not the only state bypassing Bush to enter overseas cooperation and to pursue independent Global Warming and energy policies.
And as I covered in the post “Sauerkraut, Bourgogne, Bangers“, the EU is continuing its path towards 20% emission reductions by 2020. An EU summit in early March 2007 approved the original proposal. More leaks of the upcoming April IPCC report about the consequences of Global Warming led to my post “The Bleakest Outlook Yet”. Optimistic those UN folks are not. Some of you might enjoy my take on Ann Coulter ” To Ann Coulter” after she used the Faggot word referring to John Edwards, who, by the way, is looking to define himself as a Global Warming advocate. Also recently published, the main post “Just Too Many Of You” deals with a variety of issues, most related to how Global Warming relates to populations or, more precisely, you and me.
If the world follows the initiatives of the EU, the UK and California, then the issue of Global Warming will be resolved in our – mankind’s – favor. If, on the other hand, the US, China, India, Indonesia and Brazil continues to screw the world, then we face extinction.
The Great Swindle of The Great Global Warming Swindle
The Skeptics’ favorite TV show “The Great Global Warming Swindle” lost all credibility after journalists and others proved beyond any doubt that the show knowingly presented false data. That included using data sources decenniums out of date, then falsifying “updates” to make it look like the data was recent. Of course, these fantasy (to use a kind word) “updates” were tailored to support the show’s claims. Actual and correct data was easily available but would not support the show’s conclusions, thus ignored by the producers in favor of their own famously fraudulent version.
Sir John Houghton, the former head of the Met Office who chairs the Scientific Assessment Working Group of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), said: “Last Thursday’s programme purported to debunk the science of Global Warming describing it as ‘lies’ and an invention of hundreds of scientists around the world, who have conspired to mislead governments, and the general public. The material presented was a mixture of truth, half truth and falsehood put together with the sole purpose of discrediting the science of global warming as presented by the main world community of climate scientists and by the IPCC.” Sir John continues to thoroughly expose the show’s false claims.
Just a few of many examples:
- The show claims that volcanoes emit more carbon dioxide than humans do. There is no correlation between total emissions and volcanic eruptions. Volcanoes
can impact climates on a temporary basis mostly because of the masses of dust and particles thrown into the atmosphere. But their emissions of greenhouse
gases pale compared to those of humans. - The show claims that natural causes such as sun irradiance cause more temperature effects than humans do. Research shows manmade emissions outpace such natural emissions by a factor of 10.
- The show claims that a cooling trend between 1940 and 1970 proves global warming is a hoax. The cooling trend mentioned is well researched and linked to sulphur emissions. There is no link to Global Warming.
Carl Wunch, a scientist participating in the show, has threatened to sue the producers for misrepresenting his arguments. Here is a link to parts of his statement. The producers admit they used fabricated data and various other means to “simplify” the story.
In spite of the discredits and falsified data, the show is the darling of Skeptics everywhere. Newspapers, magazines and the Internet are filled with the TV show’s distortions. The Skeptics outnumber the publicity of the Believers by a factor of 10.
Cereal and Shellfish Grief
A major study shows that cereal crops are already hurt by Global Warming to the tune of millions of tons and up to $5 billion losses. The study indicates a temperature increase of 1 degree Fahrenheit reduces yields by 3-5%. According to the study, this reduction has already happened. The losses will accumulate as temperatures keep going up.
However, this is not a complete picture. If temperatures increase beyond about 35 degrees Celsius, then cereal production is no longer possible. Yields hit zero. Several major crops in hot climate countries such as India are near, at or even above such limits. The likelihood of major food shortages is almost certain.
Further, the agricultural effect of Global Warming is that growing areas move North (or South below the Equator). Unfortunately, farms are stationary and will not be easy to move. Nor is it likely the new growing areas are anywhere close to the productivity of the old lands. In India, for instance, it is unlikely the Himalayas will provide much farm acreage.
French and Dutch researchers recently reported shellfish such as mussels and oysters are at risk as the acidity of oceans increases. This is not really news; the effect of acidification of the oceans as they absorb more and more carbon is well known. Shellfish simply cannot produce sufficient calcium based shells, given the higher acidity. The study estimates shellfish have lost 25% of their shell making capability.
The ecosystems of the oceans really are composed of a huge number of local ecosystems, both geographically – north, south and so on, then surface systems versus deep water systems. There are currents and streams with their own systems. Coastal systems differ from open ocean systems, not least because of coastal pollution. Add temperature, rising levels, glacial runoff, coral bleaching, fish farming, salinity, cyclicality and plain randomness and you have the most varied and sensitive environment possible. Dumping a bunch of chemicals such as carbon into such a system is a real bad idea, especially since ocean currents alone carry more energy than the combined nuclear arsenals of the world by several orders of magnitude.
Anything catch your attention? Here is more:
- GlobalWarming:1 – Culprits, Scoundrels and Villains
- GlobalWarming:2 – Politics, Scandals, Mass Committees
- GlobalWarming:3 – Few Like It Hot
- GlobalWarming:Europe – Sauerkraut, Bourgogne, Bangers
- GlobalWarming:4 – Disastrous Disaster Forecasts
- GlobalWarming:Coulter – To Ann Coulter
- GlobalWarming:UN – The Bleakest Outlook Yet
- GlobalWarming:News – Quick News #1
- GlobalWarming:5 – Just Too Many Of You
- GlobalWarming:6 – Terror, War, Fear and Paralysis
- WarOnTerror:1 – Bad Strategies Lose a Bad War on Terror
- WarOnTerror:2 – Consequences of a Lost War on Terror
- WarOnTerror:SOU – The War on Terror Death March
Stay tuned!
Thanks, Karl
Global Warming 6: Terror, Wars, Fears and Paralysis
March 21, 2007
Global Warming is real; it threatens life as we know it; urgent corrective actions are needed; such actions are not implemented except in isolated and insufficient cases. Solutions are held back politically although the basic issue largely consists of reading politically neutral thermometers. Majorities acknowledge climate change exists but dismiss personal jeopardy. A vocal minority faction of Skeptics discredits obvious, well documented and undisputable scientific facts. Why is Global Warming so hard to accept and to act on?
Millions believe in UFOs and the Majestic Documents. Others are sure Elvis Presley is alive; the Loch Ness monster is real and so is Bigfoot; O. J. Simpson is innocent; Michael Jackson’s nose is real; Me
l Gibson excuses are heart felt; Ann Coulter really is a woman; eHarmony is a sure way to happiness; insurgents are on the run; the Iraq war is just about won; CIA blew up the WTC; Apollo never landed on the Moon; the Holocaust never happened and SUVs do not pollute. If you, or (rather) others, accept such stretches of mind boggling reality, why not believe Global Warming which actually is real? After all, Global Warming beats any National Enquirer story by a mile or more.
Do Skeptics really have sufficient clout to hold politicians back? If so, why is that? For that matter, why do we have a bunch of these dominant Skeptics? Is it a matter of religion? Why would a religious person want to risk fellow citizens? Is it the right versus the left? If so, why are rightists suicidal and committing the lefties to the same grisly end? Is it cost? Well, yes, but
no sane person will risk mankind for a few bucks. Is it stupidity? No, I don’t think so. Similar issues were quickly dealt with in the past without the fuss of Global Warming. Why not now? The answer isn’t real clear.
The disbelief may be fueled by mixing “never heard of it and I don’t care” syndromes, too much weird techno babble, plain old denial of bad news, head in the sand dodging, media hysterics, incoherent politicians and Internet rumor mongering.
The Fear Factor
However, the most essential and utterly basic component in this strange, allegorical recipe is simply fear. We’d have the same denials if NASA announced a comet will hit in three days, wiping out most life. Some roar “No Way”; others scream “About Time” and a few stock up on emergency supplies and seek shelter. Pat Robertson blames gays, Chinese abortionists and Hugo 
Chavez. Jerry Falwell ups the ante with “pagans, abortionists, feminists, gays, lesbians, the ACLU and the PAW people”. George W. Bush and Dick Cheney are both on vacation. James Dobson recommends spanking your kids one last time. Tony Blair defers the matter to Bush. Vladimir Putin lights a candle on Stalin’s grave. Jacques Chirac blames les Américains terribles. The end indeed is near – hold it – the savior is here – Pat Robertson changed the course of the comet! Bless him.
To the fear recipe, add your personality ingredients, such as free range, marbled, genetically manipulated, farmed, artificially colored, organic, pasteurized, homogenized, mad cowed or bird flued – whatever your corresponding personality and beliefs are. Stir in the inertia of the politicians. Marinate the special interest groups. Chop and add the Realpolitik of major countries. Sautee the corporate slyness. Sprinkle with the abnormal incompetence of the US White House. Roast in oven and you’ll have a horrible, indigestible, fearful mess on your hands called Global Warming Chop Chop – a favorite in the Arctic where suddenly there is nothing else to eat.
This post will examine why Global Warming seems so hard to act on. The goal is to get some answers or at least identify some relevant patterns. History will help finding answers and patterns. Global Warming must be seen in its context, how it relates to society in general.
Tables of Contents and Other Stuff
The complete Global Warming essay is split up in several individual posts. The following introduction 
simplifies navigation through the mass of material. If you have been following the series, you may (or not) want to skip right to the main content to avoid repetition If so, hit the “Bypass” below. Keep in mind that this introduction and the contents are constantly updated.
If you are new to the series, you may want to 1) start at the beginning of the series using this link: “Culprits, Scoundrels and Villains” or 2) check out the table of content and other explanations of what this is all about – just read on. The TOC button brings you to the essay’s Table of Contents.
About the Essay and Its Nine Main Parts
The essay is split into nine main posts due to its size. Click here for more details on each post.
- The first main post examines the basic reasons why we ended up in this dreadful mess.
- The second main post covers the political and UN scene.
- The third main post deals with rising temperatures.
- The “Sauerkraut” post dives into Europe and its mysteries.
- The fourth main post bares secrets about the forecasting business.
- The “Ann Coulter” post made some fun out of America’s favorite fascist.
- The “Bleakest Outlook Yet” previews the April 2007 UN IPCC Report
- The “Quick News” issue of 3-14-2007 updates you on British, EU and other news.
- The fifth main post explains the issues due to rising populations.
- The present sixth main post probes the polarized attitudes to Global Warming.
- The seventh main post discloses opinions on Global Warming
- The eight main post looks at the very real effects of Global Warming already present.
- The ninth main post explores possible outcomes: cure or disaster?
Additional posts cover special subjects, comments and news. The “Sauerkraut” post looks at Europe and its peculiar history of early tribes, wars and more wars, deceit, Fuehrers, 
Generalissimos, Emperors, Kings and Queens, imperialism, strange food, democracy and greed, finally ending up as the world’s largest market. The post looks at how all of that, more or less, relates to issue of and attitudes to Global Warming. The post also evaluates, in detail, the recent EU proposal to reduce emissions by 20% by 2020.
I couldn’t resist doing a piece on Ann Coulter. She makes a splendid living out of out-chock-jocking Howard Stern, Bill O’Reilly, Geraldo, Moammar al-Ghadafi, Rush Limbaugh, Jerry Falwell, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Pat Robinson, Hugo Chavez, Baghdad Bob, Joseph Goebbels and Dick Cheney all at once. You gotta admire her ignorant persistence and ambition. Doing anything for a buck, she certainly managed to become America’s favorite fascist. Why not?
The “Bleakest Outlook Yet” is precisely that. There is nothing fun about this preview of the next UN IPCC report “Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability”. These reports are getting more and more alarming which by itself is truly scary. All prior reports have underestimated the impact of climate change.
The “Quick News” feature may become a regular service to keep us all up to date on recent news and to call the BS floating around.
Table of Contents
An elaborate link and TOC (Table of Content) system helps you get around the mass of material in this essay of nine main posts. Use it to find what is of your most immediate interest. Just above, there is a TOC button that brings you to the navigation system. Enjoy.
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- GlobalWarming:1 – Culprits, Scoundrels and Villains
- GlobalWarming:2 – Politics, Scandals, Mass Committees
- GlobalWarming:3 – Few Like It Hot
- GlobalWarming:Europe – Sauerkraut, Bourgogne, Bangers
- GlobalWarming:4 – Disastrous Disaster Forecasts
- GlobalWarming:Coulter – To Ann Coulter
- GlobalWarming:UN – The Bleakest Outlook Yet
- GlobalWarming:News – Quick News #1
- GlobalWarming:5 – Just Too Many Of You
- This Post:GlobalWarming:6 – Terror, War, Fear and Paralysis
- GlobalWarming:7 – Lies, Madness and Some Truth
- GlobalWarming:8 – Terrifying Evidence
- GlobalWarming:9 – Cataclysmic Apocalypse?
Odes, Ballads, Songs and Arias
This essay contains real life mini stories. They describe usually small, even insignificant, effects of 
Global Warming. The aim is to make you consider reality, survival, pain and your own future. I cite simple stories about how some of us (humans, animals, plants, oceans and everything else) are already in, or cause, deep trouble. Here are links to the various little puzzle pieces:
- Allegro to “There Ain’t No Global Warming”
- Adagio to the Krill
- Mountain Top Chorale
- Tiger in Your Tank Two Step
- I Ain’t Seein’ Nuttin’ Strut
- Farming Greenland Fiesta
- Ballad of the Lemmings
- Carol to Failures
- Ode to an Ancient Past
- Chant for the Confused
- Aria for the Polar Bear
- Cacophony of a President
- Tale of the River
- Northeast Song
- Hymn to the North
- Parchment Míddjarn
- Eulogy for the Oceans
Images in this essay
The images in this post differ from those in all the others except the upcoming Post 7: “Lies, Madness and a little Truth”, which follows the same format as this post. All images are paintings rather than photographs, with the exception of a few photos of sculptures. The motif is pain, sorrow and compassion. This theme sets the tone to awareness of the devastating future we 
may be facing. There may well be a lot of human suffering in our or our kids’ life time due to this ugly thing called Global Warming.
You see, all of this art work is associated with another era of great suffering. The Holocaust. The paintings are by individuals close to that genocide. Some artists were in and survived the camps. Others are children of former camp inmates. Yet others have a different link to the camps. I believe the suffering endured in the camps may, in some sense, be repeated in the future of Global Warming. We may not see a Dr. Mengele or Himmler, nor gas chambers or death trains. But the suffering from Global Warming may well exceed that of the Holocaust many times over.
I did not choose the images from a strictly artistic point of view. Not all paintings are masterpieces. Some are downright ugly. I choose them because of their emotional content and their impact, at least on me. I believe Earth will suffer major tragedies as it has in the past. Global Warming is one likely cause of such suffering, but probably not the only one factor. And, of course, Global Warming is already harvesting its first victims. It would be fantasy to think there is not a lot more to come. 
Using the Holocaust for this post is not politically motivated. In fact, almost none of the artwork directly addresses the camps themselves or isolates the Jewish experience. The choice of the motif has nothing to do with the cheap shots recently fired about so called Holocaust Deniers, a phrase I find repulsive in the context of Global Warming.
This post is dedicated to the victims of the Holocaust. May no one ever suffer such pain again. The art work comes from The Center for Holocaust and Genocide Studies at the University of Minnesota. Please visit them using this link.
This blog, its design, text content (except quotes from others) and my own images and graphs are copyright © Leading Design, Inc 2006-2007. All Rights Reserved. I make absolutely no claims on images or quotes originating in other sources.
Mirages and Mirrors – My Own View
Let’s disregard the crackpots for a while and consider the saner views. I often have this déjà vu feeling about the serious opinions – I look at a Skeptic opinion and feel “I’ve been there”. Often, either side raises the same issues using the same data and research. Arguments are very similar. Only the ultimate conclusion mysteriously differs. Some of us surely have to look into the old time
funny mirrors found in amusement parks. Or smoke the wrong kind of fags.
I am in complete agreement with the Skeptics on more than a few issues. For instance, I readily agree the climate is a complex issue with several layers of warming and cooling trends and cycles that are only partially understood. Parts of Global Warming are due to factors that mankind has little power over. I have little confidence in the complex forecasts presented, preferring to stick with known, verified evidence rather than dim assumptions. I do not buy any conclusions before I can verify them based on, preferably, my own analysis.
I view the Kyoto Protocol and the CERs as useless and inequitable in the current implementation. I think the IPCC reports contain too many political “mass committee” compromises to be truly effective. They are wide open to the critique of being politicized. I believe that current European initiatives are ambitious but perhaps motivated by commercial and political interests. The initiatives themselves are totally useless in defeating Global Warming unless the world follows. The Europeans know it, securing the high ground for future use.
But I view the possible outcomes entirely differently than the Skeptics. I believe Global Warming is real and the most significant and dangerous issue facing mankind. The Skeptics differ at that point. How can serious and knowledgeable people differ on such well researched questions? It seems Skeptics often quote well known facts and then reach a 
different conclusion without really proving why. Perhaps it is Divine Insight?
Shouldn’t it be simple enough to prove solar energy or cosmic rays are the main cause of the warming, if indeed that is the case? Tell me what about the origin of views such as: “manmade GHGs do not cause rising temperatures” and/or “earth will cool within a few years” and/or “temperatures were much higher in the past” and/or “the shape of Earth or its orbit is the cause”. Someone, please help me.
Where is the verification of all these claims? I have yet to see evidence supporting any of these points. Why is that? For that matter, do any of these raised issues have anything to do with resolving the problem? Do they actually matter?
Let’s Remember Some Basics
In the fever of Fact Challenged Opinions and Name Calling, a few basics tend to be forgotten. We might actually be doomed if we don’t act real soon. Even most Skeptics acknowledge we do have a problem. We may already be doomed. So arguing about who is the Fascist is a bit too late. If in fact we still can win this war, the obvious 
question is how we get the right actions taken real soon. Every one with some understanding of the issue knows how to solve it. In fact, it is not even that hard to make Global Warming go away – unless we apathetically wait too long or let a few bullies stop us.
Why has a basic issue such as Global Warming become a polarizing item? In what way is it Socialist Extremism to read measurements from thermometers? Why does the Capitalist World feverishly oppose the very thought of Global Warming, considering there is a ton of money to be made? Why are Skeptics compared to SS concentration camp guards? Why are some Skeptics receiving death threats? Why are we plagued with a US President who is completely aloof of his own catastrophic policies? Why is he allowed to lead us further into the abyss?
Take two similar, not very distant, issues. In the 1960s a real concern was the pollution from sulphur dioxide and other cooling gases, causing acid rain and health issues. A little later, ozone holes showed it was a bad idea to dump Freon, aerosols and similar articles into the atmosphere. In both cases, many parts of the world simply did what was needed with no major fuss or any significant long term hardships. Emissions of these quite deadly gases were rapidly controlled. No one was called a Fascist or Maniac for supporting whatever belief one favored.
Lies, deceptions and a History View
Perhaps the resistance to Global Warming has some roots in 
the following: I see a very strange trend occurring in many sectors of today’s world. It is one of increasing tensions, human rights abuses, government deceit and lies, unconventional arms races, highest level crimes, secret agendas, greed, religious terror and plain old fascism trying to sneak in.
The bottom line is a top level struggle for power, national and often personal, using very unethical terrorist style methods. It appears anything goes as much of the public is apathetically and silently standing by. Considering that, it may not be odd that Global Warming became merely a pawn in this frightening struggle. I generally do not buy conspiracy theories, but I do think all of the above fuels the basic human emotion of fear which is blinding a lot of people.
Old Country Deceit, Wars and Fascism
Europe fought at least 60 wars since 1300, averaging one every 12 years, most lasting several 
years. Perhaps wars were fought 1/3 of the time and a shaky peace held up 2/3 of the time. Casualties are in the hundreds of millions. No country avoided the slaughter; many were almost constantly in conflict. Germany and France lead the charge with England not far behind. Even Poland, the Swedes and the Danes threw their armies in the pot.
Following the collapse of the USSR, many countries reduced their military forces drastically to only support international peace keeping rather than foreign aggression against the home land. After all, who is the enemy?
Amazingly, in spite of the bloody times, Europe laid the foundation for western civilization with incredible feats in arts and industry. The history of betrayal, deception and secrecy is long and colorful. The Europeans are master plotters, negotiators and back stabbers. Here is a short list of events to keep in mind:
- The conspiracy to murder Julius Caesar in 44 BC – “Et tu Brutus”, “Help, Brothers”, “Villain Casca, what do you do?” No plea stopped the murder, no brother or friend interfered.
- Florence in the Renaissance – a study in betrayals, double crosses, power struggles. The Italian wars of early 1500s – power struggles, alliances, counter alliances and betrayals. The Republic of Venice – profiteering from the Crusades, exploiting trade controls, devious aristocrats, secret police, you name it.
- The plays of William Shakespeare – Betrayal, lust, power, egotism, murder and ambition a galore. Or what about Wagner’s Niebelungen Ring: 15 hours of mysticism, Greek drama, Jungian psychology nonsense, alleged socialist critique. This German high romance was favored by Hitler and the Nazis.
- The 1884 anti-Semitic conviction of Alfred Dreyfus by France based on falsified evidence. The conviction was engineered by the French High Command. Dreyfus spent 12 years on the Devil’s Island till being pardoned after Emile Zola’s intervention “J’ accuse”. He fought in WWI, ended up a Lt. Colonel with a Legion d’Honneur.
- The assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand and wife by Gavrilo Princip on June 28, 1914, marking the start of an escalation leading to WWI. Prinic was one of six Serb assassins in a madcap and bizarre event. Balkan terror started thousands of years ago and is still ongoing.
- The secret support from the Roman Catholic Church towards Nazi Germany, during and after WWII. The current Pope Benedict XVI enlisted in the Hitler Youth in 1941 and served in the German air defense. Pope Pius XII is widely known as the Nazi Pope with far reaching involvement in favor of the Germans before, during and after WWII.
- The Holocaust by no means being the only European anti Semitism tragedy. Pogroms occurred in Poland, pre-Hitler Germany, Spain, Britain, Switzerland and Romania, not to mention Ukraine and Russia. Anti-Semitism has a history of at least a thousand years in Europe.
- The European Jews not being the only ones persecuted. Romans (Gypsies), Armenians, Gays, the mentally ill or handicapped and many others suffered as well. Genocide and ethnic and racial cleansing are age old realities. Today, explosive tensions grow out of difficulties in assimilating new cultures such as “different” immigrants, labor and refugees.
- Hitler’s 1939 non-aggression pact with Stalin to divide Poland, Finland, Romania and others. Stalin ended up in chock on June 22, 1941 as the Operation Barbarossa attack by Hitler on the Soviet Union commenced.
- A wave of covert Communist spies originating in the 1930s at upper class English universities, in particular Trinity Hall at Cambridge. Known as the Cambridge Spy Group, John Cairncross, Kim Philby, Guy Burgess, Donald McLean, Anthony Blunt and Michael Whitney Straight all spied for the Soviets after rising to significant positions in the British civil service, including in the Foreign Service, MI5 and MI6. The Group was devastatingly successful. Several defected to Moscow after exposure. Oxford University produced its Oxford Spy Group but with far less success than the Cambridge Group.
- George Blake being another famous spy of the same WWII – early Cold War era, who apparently still lives in Moscow after a successful career for, among others, MI6. Sir Roger Hollis, one time Director of MI5 is a suspect spy of the same mold, as are Peter Ashby, Leo Long, Brian Symon, Goronwy Rees, John Vassall and Victor Rothschild. Quite likely, this is just the tip of the iceberg.
- The 1970s violent underground terrorist organizations operating in Germany, Italy and elsewhere – The Red Brigade, the Red Faction or the Baader-Meinhof Gang are the most infamous examples. The death toll wasn’t great but the terror factor was effective. Another terror organization, the Gladio, operated under the command of NATO and some national governments.
- The British fame for its political scandals: the 1912 Marconi scandal – corruption; the 1963 sexual/spy Profumo Affair that sent Jack Profumo from a Minister post to cleaning toilets at an East End charity; architect John Poulson bribed various politicians until exposed in 1972; the 1973 call girl scandal resulting in the fall of Cabinet minister Earl Jellico,; Liberal Party leader and MP Jeremy Thorpe lost his appointments in 1976 after a gay affair and shooting a dog.
- The more recent British scandals: Edwina Currie’s allegedly conducted a 1984 affair with PM John Major; Author and MP Jeffrey Archer lost his posts in 1999 due to various sex, perjury and fraud accusations; Scottish party leader David McLetchie resigning in 2005 after submitting false travel expenses; Liberal spokesman Mark Oaten stepping down after gay affairs in 2005; and finally, Tony Blair’s possible involvement in the 2006 Cash for Peerage scandal.
Deceptions, betrayals, scandals are not what we like to have in our neighborhoods. We may gawk 
over them as long as it happens far away to someone else. If they impact or approach our laird, we close the hatches, turn off the noise and hide in the basement. “The only good bad news is dead bad news. Turn it off, make it go away.” Fear suddenly becomes real.
It took Stalin a week of isolation in his private basement to admit the Germans actually were attacking him in 1941. Hitler hid in his bunker for weeks during the fall of Berlin, believing his armies would come to his rescue, plotting his fantasy strategies. It took the English decenniums to face up the fact some of their most trusted civil servants were Soviet spies. Some still can’t face the Holocaust. Caesar denied the threat of betrayal even as he died. Harry Truman would not believe Mount St. Helen would blow. It did. The Titanic was unsinkable. She sank.
The World in the 1900s and early 2000s
The Decline of the Old World
The 1900-1914 years saw the last of an old world dominated by aristocrats, monarchs and 
Victorian influences. European Empires still thrived. Japan won the 1905 war against Russia and started its route towards Asian dominance that would not end for 40 years until it was commercially restarted in the 1950s. Communication devices thrived: the telephone went commercial; the wireless (radio) became increasingly common; the Zeppelin and scheduled steamboats contributed to globalization and trade. Civilization was leaping forward, faster and faster.
War, Social Revolution and Depression
1914 -18 and really into the early 1920s were overwhelmed by first WWI, then the deadly Influenza as well as the Russian Revolution. The German Weimar republic showed signs of democracy. Some countries allowed 
females to vote. Labor organizations were born. Empires started to crumble. Females entered war production. Things were changing course.
The rest of the 1920s saw hyperinflation, booming stock markets followed by collapses and the start of depressions. Prohibition in the US went up and eventually down, leaving gangster gangs behind. Social attitudes evolved away from Victorian norms to much more permissive behavioral attitudes. Many old authoritarian rules were demolished: Russian Tsars, German and Austrian Emperors, the powerlessness of the “under class”. The Old Way of Things kept crumbling.
The 1930s suffered the deepest depressions in modern times. Germany and Italy became Fascist states. The Soviet showed its true face in a series of famine driven mass murders and various other deadly human rights abuses to the tune of millions murdered. Germany started suppressions of Jews. Japan’s war against China intensified. Left wing 
republicans in Spain were annihilated followed by almost 40 years of Fascist government. President Roosevelt introduced the New Deal. Storms were clearly approaching.
Another War and the Final demolishment of Old Powers
1939-1945 was dominated by war in Europe and China. 1941-1945 saw the US become the leading Western warrior and eventual winner. The Soviets won the Eastern part of the war and quickly assembled an empire in Eastern Europe. The US dominated Western Europe and parts of Asia, including temporarily Japan. The Old Order and Imperialism and finally fell apart for ever. Fascism went into hiding.
In the late 1940s, the depression was long over and manufacturing capabilities were revolutionized. Rebuilding Europe took a decade and provided plenty of jobs, partly based on the Marshall Plan. Millions of returning warriors entered the labor and consumer markets. Economic growth followed. The first traces of the Cold War made an entrance. Nuclear weapons started their route to the costliest arms race ever. China is united under Mao. In about 30 years, everything changed. Few traces of the Old Order remained. All human guidelines were new and untested.
A Brief Lull and a Cold War 
Apart from the Korean War, the French Indochina war, the Hungarian uprising and the Cuban Revolution, the 1950s were mostly a peaceful era of stabilizing the new values. Prosperity and civil calm blossomed. The Cold War thrived and provided economic growth in its arms race. Nuclear warfare was scary but accepted in a naive fashion (“Duck!”). Communist scares on one side (McCarthy and others) and democracy scares elsewhere (Stalin, Khrushchev) caused ripples, serious at the time but without real impact.
All Hell Breaks Loose
In the 1960s, concerns about explosive growth in populations were on the agenda. Man entered 
space. The Green movement was born. Civil rights became important and deadly. JFK establishes the Peace Corps. The Soviets crushed the Prague Spring. The War in Vietnam became a domestic battle ground and symbol in countless countries. Social upheavals erupted worldwide, in the streets and on the campuses. The French battled students and worker riots. Woodstock became a legend. Martin Luther King, John F. Kennedy, Robert F. Kennedy, Che Guevara and Malcolm X were all murdered. Mao’s Little Red Book quickly printed 600 million copies. Now we really had some challenges to face. The impact of the 1960s is still with us.
Terror, Oil Crisis and Pollution
The 1970s saw food supplies become an issue and pollution suddenly cost money. Greenpeace was founded. The Pill became commonly used. The 1970s also was the decennium of scarce oil and long waits at the gas stations. Suddenly the price of oil got close to its real value to the shock of a world. 
Nations went to war over fishery grounds. Intel’s first microprocessor hit the market. Pollution started to kill people in earnest. Aircraft hijacking mushroomed. Terrorism spread, in particular in industrial countries. The Munich Olympics Massacre became symbol of mindless killings. Elvis Presley allegedly died. Feminism took off. Gay rights became a movement. The rate of change continued its acceleration.
Environmental disasters, No More Cold War, Political Murders
AIDS started killing millions in the 1980s. Most whaling was stopped. The Bhopal chemical leak 
killed 10,000. The world turned conservative led by Reaganomics and Thacherism. Perestroika, Glasnost and Tiananmen Square became household words. The Berlin Wall fell. The Ozone Holes were discovered. The Chernobyl reactor blew up. Exxon Valdez ran into a reef. The notion of Globalization was popularized. John Lennon was murdered, as were Indira Gandhi and Olof Palme. The Asian Tigers conquered their place in economic history books. The US stock market suffered its Black Monday. Political Correctness was required. El Nino started creating chaos. The World passed yet another decade of horrendous change.
Greed, Me First, Genocides
By the 1990s, Global Warming popped up its ugly head in earnest. Politics moved left, yet capitalism
flourished. The end of the Cold War reunified Germany. India and China started their meteoric ascent. Al Gore’s Internet connected the world as did PCs, CNN and cell phones. Much of Africa descended into civil wars. Genocides became an everyday word. Dolly the sheep was the first official clone. Genetically engineered crops went commercial. The EU was born out of EEC. Economies and dot coms boomed. Stock options and IPOs enriched a few. The Japanese bought most of Hollywood and others, eventually losing billions, ending their invincible air. Changes, changes, will they never stop?
Mutual Terror, Insane Wars, Global Warming, Exuberance, Un-Ethics
Today, in the mid to late first decade of the 2000s, we worry about extreme weather, pandemics and flooding. Social security is running out. Hideous foreigners invading our lands. Crazed but generally unknown or fictional terrorists kill our neighbors. Many obsess whether gay marriage is OK 
or not. We endured Enron, WorldCom, dot coms, 9/11, a mystical War on Terror and the strangest US President ever. Toyotas and Hondas slaughter Ford and GM. Government ethics fell in a black hole as did human rights. Torture was suddenly OK while stem cells were not. And of course, less taxes for the rich!
The Religious Right and the Neo Con movements gained in strength worldwide. Although some of those gains may have reversed, these people still polarize everything they touch. Black and White. With Us or Against Us. No Middle Ground. We Are Right, You Are Wrong.
The changes do not stop or rest, they fly by at a dizzying pace. Stress is everywhere, too many need
antidepressants, sleeping pills, tranquilizers, Yoga, recovery centers, rehab, therapy, marathon runs, hypnosis, relaxation exercises, self help books, face lifts, tattoos, anti harassment rules, exercise machines, weight programs/pills/food, subconscious tape messages, reality shows, Tums, herbal treatments, nail enhancement, health spas, bleached teeth, botox treatments, Viagra, breast enhancement, Internet porn, perfect abs, alcohol, drugs and a lot more from the billions of dollar “Coping Industry”. Most of these items were completely unknown just 50 years ago, now they are crucial to our well being. Our brains truly must be cooked. This is progress?
Patterns I Don’t Like – Go Away
If you think about it, perhaps you’ll see a pattern in the madness. These up and down events were, and are, caused by the checks and balances present in any system being thrown out of sync. You 
have seen the graphs. Things were flat for a million years. Then by 1750, things started to head straight up, be it populations, industrial production, GNP, indoor plumbing, carbon fuels, emissions, concentrations, pollution, space travel, information overload and frenzy, commuting, extinctions, milk prices, IRAs and of course temperatures.
By the 1960s, things really caught up with us. Matters switched into overdrive. Ancient imbalances went critical and all hell broke loose. Who the heck are we to assume the old abuses would never have to be paid for?
No one likes things to be out of whack, out of control. If they are, then life is suddenly uncertain. The future is unclear. Fear is fueled. Denials are easy. “Everything is out of control, in particular, my control. Pile the bad news in the corner over there. Better yet, dump it outside, a few miles down the road. I won’t take it anymore. Go away.”
The Increasingly Tense World
Tensions – US Approaching Fascism
George W. Bush and Dick Cheney are getting away with murder, literally. They also get away with breaking more laws than any White House duo in history, including such abuses as torture, illegal surveillance, violations of human rights and the avoidance of war criminal charges. The White House 
is implicated in infinite lies and routinely suppresses the truth on a wide spectrum of major issues.
Of course, part is just upholding a great, longstanding tradition in American politics: that of lying. FDR lied about his WWII plans. Harry Truman lied about the attack on Hiroshima. Eisenhower lied about U2 spy planes over Russia. JFK lied about the Bay of Pigs. Ford lied about JFK’s death. Nixon, isolated and drunk in the White House, regretted his lies but believed Watergate was an invention of his enemies. Reagan lied about the Contra Affair. Bush Sr. lied about taxes. Bill Clinton never had sex with that woman. George W. Bush is a serial liar.
Scooter Libby lied. Duke Cunningham lied. Tom DeLay lied. Colin Powell lied. So did Mark Foley, Bob Packwood, Spiro Agnew, Wilbur Mills, Gary Condit, Joe McCarthy and an endless array of grand government leaders.
More and more political and religious leaders are accused and convicted of crimes. I’ve shown the lists, including the one above, of individuals before. The abuses are not stopping. In March of 2007 
alone we have the conviction of “Scooter” Libby (and by association, Dick Cheney). Alberto Gonzales is exposed as the destroyer of his own Justice Department in a ballet that is implicating the White House. Major damage controls and, you guessed it, more lies are underway.
The Walter Reed Army Medical Center scandal of March 2007 cost some Generals their jobs, but no one else apparently had a clue. Frequent but suppressed accounts of substandard treatments and facilities go back several years but were completely ignored. George W. Bush is currently “deeply troubled” but must have missed the moldy walls on his visits there.
Earlier, George W. Bush, in spite of plenty warnings, botched Hurricane Katrina responses for days and months if not longer, never admitting failure. “We’re fully prepared”, “I don’t think anybody anticipated the breach of the levees”, “Brownie, you’re doin’ a heckuva job”. Bush: on vacation. Cheney: on vacation. Bad phone lines. Lies. Failures. No accountability.
In 2001, it took George W. Bush and Dick Cheney hours if not weeks to face 9/11. They still do not, nor will they ever, understand 9/11. They are clueless about the meaning of terrorism. They believe the Muslim World collectively attacked the Towers and the Pentagon. So they declared war on Islam, under a thin veil of “terrorism”.
Check my War on Terror posts for details and many more opinions: 
- Bad Strategies Lose a Bad War on Terror
- Consequences of a Lost War on Terror
- State of the Union – The War on Terror Death March
The truth is maybe a few dozen Mideast individuals were involved in 9/11 out of 414 million Mideasterners or 1.8 billion Muslims worldwide. 10 million Muslims live in the United States, none of which are known to be involved in 9/11 or terrorism. Now the number of Muslims detesting the United States has skyrocketed. Devastating two Islam countries facing civil wars for years to come do not make things better. New armies of terrorists make their bombs, strap them on and envision a next life rewarded with true virgins. The next lives of their victims are not known.
As the Bush and Cheney duo looked the wrong way two new renegade nuclear powers (to be) popped up. Then the duo support a nuclear arms race in India and Pakistan. As the whole Mideast is falling apart, war with Syria, Iran and North Korea are real possibilities.
Bush and Cheney refuse to accept or even acknowledge the reality of failures in Iraq, Iran, North Korea or Afghanistan. They hide the facts and live their fantasy while dismissing the urgent messages from those who know.
Never will they admit the lies, deceptions, mistakes, betrayals and ignorance leading to the Iraq invasion. They lie about going to war, about WMD, Saddam’s 
involvement in 9/11, terrorism, Global Warming, energy, over friendly lobbyists, special interests, industry and corporate pals, civil rights, human rights, US attorneys and CIA in an endless morass.
US Democrats and all Presidential candidates have shown their complacency. The Democrats are in power in Congress. Yet, no real action is underway in fighting Global Warming, stopping the Iraq war or rolling back Bush’s illegalities. Not one Presidential candidate has the guts to deviate from the official “support our troops” blasphemy. Support them by exposing them to death? By making them targets in a civil war of no meaning to any national interests (except to a few very rich companies)? Why are US soldiers forced to sacrifice their lives for the profits of oil companies?
The American people largely have turned a blind eye to these disgraces. In the past, such abuses led to protests – not any more: it’s just too many things to deal with in today’s society. No one can keep up. The four year anniversary of the start of the Iraq war resulted in some protest demonstrations. They rated maybe two paragraphs next to the Classifieds in the news. 
Are you surprised Bush and Cheney are botching Global Warming? Are you surprised they falsify and suppress the truth about climate change both to the people and to Congress? Do you realize they single handedly can actually cause mass death? This may affect you.
No one will trust such leaders, their judgment, their ability to do the right things or their ability to protect rather than kill. The result? Fear. Add Global Warming to all the other messes and brains shut down. Most of us end up in protective denial, the closer we are to the horrors. “Enough is enough. Don’t call me, I’ll call you. Stay away from me. Go away. Adios Global Warming”. Some retreat into contrarian, “Skeptic” views and yell as loudly as possible “It just ain’t true”.
Will the US accept its Global Warming responsibility? Not with this President. Not with this Congress. Not till it’s too late. Or hopefully, not quite too late.
Tensions – Democracy Out, Totalitarianism In
Russia and several former Soviet Republics are slipping into Neo Fascism. Most early democratic reforms are gone by now. Old Soviet (or new) hard liners are back in power. Free press and media in general are history. Putin shows his KGB background.
Russia is building up its new weapon, energy, as a new way to hold Europe and others under the gun. Where the Warsaw Pact failed, the energy weapon might succeed. Russia will be back as a formidable power, this time backed by reality, not by central planning formulas. They will not be a 
democratic showcase.
Ukraine is a confused mix of Pro-Russia and Pro-Western influences. Georgia went through civil war ending up in the same ideological struggle as did many of the ex Soviet republics. Belarus remains a hard line outpost. Chetnya, of course, is simply a terrorist/freedom fighter war ground. All the ex Soviet Republics are in a tense struggle of fascism versus not democracy but pro Western or Pro Russian alignment.
Several Eastern European countries, long viewed as new born democratic stars, are slipping backwards towards the old hardliner school of politics. In the Czech Republic, the Communist Party holds an important swing vote, preventing stable governments. The President – Václav Klaus – maintains close contacts with the Communists with a background of corruption. Klaus, incidentally, recently jumped on the anti-Global Warming band wagon. Hungary is ruled by “Socialists”, in spite of a recent scandal involving the government lying to the people. The people rioted and forced the exit of the PM. Most Romanian politicians are former members of the Communist Party. Likewise, “Socialists” rule Bulgaria.
Iraq, Syria, Palestine prove beyond doubt the shortcomings of democracy. No one sees a democratic future in Iraq as once proudly, naively and groundlessly seen by Bush, Rumsfeld and Cheney. Few 
even believe there is a future Iraq. Iraq likely will end up split into various ethnically cleansed areas under control of Iran, Syria and Turkey. Iraqi oil revenues? That’s the real battle ground. My bet is on the oil companies.
Syria, one of the oldest civilizations on earth, is not known for democratic ambitions but plenty of militant policies. Neither is Iran or Turkey.
The Palestine Territories are a paralyzed mix of competing forces that make no sense to outsiders. Bush maintains victory is around the corner while infuriating every Arab state by blindly supporting Israeli power tactics, such as using cluster bombs on civilians. There is no stability in sight in any part of this region.
Global Warming will receive little attention in these countries. Russia and Eastern Europe may pay lip service but not much more. The Mideast with its highly polluting oil industry will look forward to CER subsidies but not drastic or even modest changes.
Tensions – Economic Warfare and Blackmail
China and India both evolve towards domination through unfair practices. Both claim the right to special entitlements simply by “or else” or “screw you” tactics. China uses its imaginary “one child” policy to defend its lethal – to the whole world – pollution of everything from the air to the deepest oceans. India argues along the same lines. Both ignore the fact they are subject to a heavily industrialized sector that should be treated the same as any industrial area. Then there is a huge 
non-industrial area that should be protected. This distinction is not on the table but is crucial to managing the Global Warming disaster both these countries are creating. A power plant is a power plant whether in Belgium, China or India. Equal treatment.
North Korea and Iran successfully blackmail the world using the threat of nuclear weapons. They insinuate warfare against neighbor countries, especially Israel and Japan. North Korea may have an ICBM capable of reaching US soil in the foreseeable future. They already have the rockets to hit Japan. Iran probably can target Israel while not yet having a war head. In fairness, prior US administrations did not do much to resolve these two threats. But Bush has dragged his feet for six years. It just proves to the world the vulnerability and weakness of the US as it struggles to source its war in Iraq. The question is who is next to overturn the nuclear cart?
Global Warming? Not a likely priority in these places by any measure.
Tensions – The Militant Right Wing Islamic
The Religious Right of Islam has a hold to varying degree in most parts of the Muslim world, supporting strict Islamic laws. The countries affected share the characteristics of any extremist 
country: tense international relations including isolation, hatred of the US and democracies in general, militant postures and, internally, human rights abuses and suppression of most modern life styles. Some support international terrorist groups such as al Qaeda, Palestinian Hamas or Hitzbullah in Lebanon and Iraqi insurgents.
The Iranian Supreme Leader is an Ayatollah who is the religious source of real power. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is elected President with some power but Iran is a theocratic country. Relations with Europe improved but are now marred by Holocaust denials and the nuclear issue. International relations are extremely tense. Relations with the US are practically nonexistent and subject to demagogic extremes and brinkmanship.
Other countries or factions maintain similar Islamic theocracy and practice hard line Islamic laws and customs. Examples include pre-invasion and the probable future 
Afghanistan (Taliban), Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Egypt, Pakistan, parts of Indonesia, Malaysia and Nigeria. Factions of war torn Somalia and many Iraq insurgents are led by religious Islam leaders. The strictness of the Islamic “purity” may vary. Often, there are mounting tensions within the theocratic country longing for a freer, more modern life style (e.g., Iran). The penalties due to poor international relations are significant and contribute to internal pressures. Yet, the religious power is very strong and will not go away.
One thing is clear: Global Warming will not be a concern of the ruling class in these countries.
Tensions Are Not Good for Me – Stay Away
“I need tensions like a hole in my head. I sure don’t need any more. Who are all these weirdoes piling it up on me? It used to be so simple. Apple pie and roast. Mummy in the kitchen. Fresh 
cookies. No tensions.”
The world these days is next door. Instant communication is everywhere and “all of it is bad news about things I don’t care about. I don’t want it. I already have my fears, my worries, my tensions and problems. Paying bills, not getting fired, staying healthy and providing for the family”.
“Now they say I cause Global Warming and earth will blow up. Thank you, but I already have a head ache. You’re last in line. I’ll never get to you. I don’t want to get to you. Arnold in California will make you go away. Besides, it’s freezing outside. Global Warming, huh? Nah.”
Unity or the Lack Thereof
Let’s put the fear factor aside for a bit and look at some more tangible examples such as the IPCC and Stern Reports. It turns out that while almost all agree that these reports are terrifically fantastic, no one, except perhaps the EU internally, seems to agree on what to do except push the same old private agendas:
The Europeans (February 2007 Version)
- Take Jacques Chirac, President of France, who hosted the meeting in Paris. He, on the last day, promoted his own idea to create a new agency handling Global Warming in a manner more to his liking – partly a forum to insult the US, it seems. 45 nations, such as Algeria, Ecuador, Cambodia, Vanuatu, Seychelles, Gabon and Burundi apparently responded favorably to his proposal although its mission remains completely unclear. The UN responded that organizational changes are less important than actual actions.
- The Italian PM wants urgent global carbon taxes and promotes his own ideas of a new UN organization for Global Warming (see point above).
- Then, we have the Bush, President of the US, rejection of everything the meeting accomplished. Of course, the US boycotted the Chirac new agency idea as fast as it dumped the report.
- The new Conservative PM of Sweden declared that Swedish emissions are already so tiny that no further action was required but offered to send its compliance money to China. Sweden seems to have backtracked completely, in fact advocating tighter emission targets than EU in general.
- German Chancellor Merkel’s government, which holds the EU’s rotating presidency, has threatened to block an EU attempt to impose a general emission reduction on the auto sector, insisting the size of cars must be taken into consideration.
- EU Environment Commissioner Stavros Dimas called on Germany — Europe’s largest economy — to put more efforts behind its promises to combat climate change, saying the nation had failed so far to take a leading role in fighting global warming.
The Europeans (March 2007 Version)
- In late February, EU proposes 20-30% reductions in emissions by 2020 by its members and asks for others to follow the path. Proposals are ignored by the US, China and India.
- EU approves of the proposal at a Summit in March 2007.
- The UK unilaterally commits to 60% reductions by 2050.
- Presumably, the French and Italians individual proposals are now abandoned.
- These points will be addressed in the next sections.
Others
- The Australian Ecology Minister stated that the Report’s science is important but does not add anything new [to convince Australia to comply with mandatory emission ceilings].
- China responded to the IPCC report by defending their emissions: “China has low per capita emissions and that developed countries must take responsibility for the damage they create.”; “As a developing country with a rapidly growing economy and a big population, to use clean energy would need a lot of money.”; China declined to say whether Beijing would be willing to place caps on its own emissions.
- The Indian government is not worried as of February 3, 2007. “It is too premature to talk of policy implications based on this report,” said Prodipto Ghosh, secretary, Ministry of Environment and Forests. He said the report has to go through several steps of scientific peer review before being translated into policy.
- “To avert the catastrophic effects of continued global warming, such as desertification of the Amazon rain forest, all countries both rich and poor must do a part”, Brazilian Environment Minister Marina Silva said. But then: “It is not pertinent to place environmental concerns in opposition to economic development and vice-versa.”.
- Kenneth Green of the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative think tank in Washington, allegedly sent a letter offering $10,000 to scientists and economists to “undermine” the panel’s report. Mr. Green complains he never used the word “undermine”. Is this a WamingGate deal? Mysteries and scandals abound.
- Sen. James Inhofe, R-Okla., the ranking Republican on the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee, said the U.N. report was written and edited by government officials: “This is a political document, not a scientific report, and it is a shining example of the corruption of science for political gain.”
Senator Inhole, R-Okla., always amazes me. Remember Baghdad Bob? He also amazed and amused me in a tragic manner. Then we have Le Président Glorieux Chirac (now retiring) 
who forgets that his own country is not complying with the emission requirements of the Kyoto Protocol. The French excuse is its heavy investment in nuclear energy which does not emit GHGs.
The French and Italian initiative may have died a peaceful death given the recent EU near unity on a passed proposal coordinating strict emission targets for 2020. Chirac leaving office contributes to unity. In late February 2007, the EU made public a plan amounting to serious CO2 emission reductions, such as 20% by 2020 compared to the 1990 levels or 30% if non-EU countries, notably the US, followed the lead. This is an important step if indeed it is based on real commitment. Some view the proposal simply as a bargaining chip in the face of an updated Kyoto Protocol going beyond the current limit of 2012 as well as an attempt to dominate the commercial market for emission control. The plan was passed at a March 2007 EU Summit.
The objections to taking action of most countries really say “We are not emitting very much compared to So-and-so and therefore do not need to, or cannot, reduce our miniscule emissions”. That is a completely flawed argument. Emission caps address specific carbon intensive practices and industries. They do not punish other parts of the economies, whether based on nuclear energy in France or the modest lives of billions of Chinese or Indian farmers. If the targets do affect complying areas of the nationa
l economies, then they should be corrected. If there are no targets for non-compliant sectors, then there should be.
There is no difference between dirty coal burning power plants in China, excessive use of air conditioners in the US, disastrous energy developments in Russia or the Arctic, gas guzzling Autobahn car races in Germany or forestry practices in Indonesia. These practices all emit GHGs which can be reduced below set targets. All should be subject to similar, equitable rules. Many practices are, or are intended to be, capped in Annex 1 countries; none are in Non Annex 1 countries. That is not equitable. Emissions are emissions. Whatever causes the emissions is similar everywhere. The profits are comparable. They should be treated consistently with out excuses based on some other economic segment.
Europe Revisited
The UK is getting real about Global Warming by outlining binding legislation to cut carbon dioxide emissions by 60% by 2050. The Bill also sets targets of 26-32% cuts by 2020. Parts of the opposition favor 80% cuts, or even 90%. Government assistance will enable insulation of 8 million homes over the next ten years. UK is on track to meet all Kyoto Protocol goals. Government officials stressed the 
UK’s leadership in the War on Global Warming with a clear eye towards the lack of leadership or action from the US.
Simultaneously, The UK enters direct cooperation with California, bypassing the inertia of George W. Bush. Arnold Schwarzenegger, Californian maverick, called Tony Blair an action hero for inspiring the introduction of a law committing California to an 80% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050. Mr. Schwarzenegger said: “It is very clear the Prime Minister has been a great inspiration to many, many countries all over the world… I think he is a pioneer, because he has had the guts to sign the Kyoto treaty and to show to the world that you can protect the environment and protect the economy at the same time.”
Have the Blair or California Governments gone insane? Won’t this madness bankrupt the whole world (or the US as Mr. Bush claims without proof)? Of course not, the UK hopes to make big money on its leadership. They have key parts of the technology to make reductions of this magnitude possible. So do others, including the EU, US and California in particular. If you view these emission reduction plans as some form of misbegotten charity, you are very 
much on the wrong track. Incidentally, California is not the only state bypassing Bush to enter overseas cooperation and to pursue independent Global Warming and energy policies.
And as I covered in the post “Sauerkraut, Bourgogne, Bangers“, the EU is continuing its path towards 20% emission reductions by 2020. An EU summit in early March 2007 approved the original proposal. More leaks of the upcoming April IPCC report about the consequences of Global Warming led to my post “The Bleakest Outlook Yet”. Optimistic those UN folks are not. Some of you might enjoy my take on Ann Coulter “To Ann Coulter” after she used the Faggot word referring to John Edwards, who, by the way, is looking to define himself as a Global Warming advocate. Also recently published, the main post “Just Too Many of You” deals with a variety of issues, most related to how Global Warming relates to populations or, more precisely, you and me.
If the world follows the initiatives of the EU, the UK and California, then the issue of Global Warming will be resolved in our – mankind’s – favor. If, on the other hand, the US, China, India, Indonesia and Brazil continues to destroy the world, then we face extinction.
The Final Word
That is where things stand. Tensions, ignorance, pressures, greed and envy, lies and deceptions, inertia and overloading and, not least, Modern Life. It’s a long list to overcome. Can it be done? Compare today to the Londoners during the Nazi Blitz. Think about the Hamburgians during the Allied fire bombings. Did you ever experience the Hungarian or Czech barehanded uprisings against the Soviet tanks? Consider The Tiananmen Square protests in face of massive troops and tanks? Did you see Boris Yeltsin single handedly preventing the return of Soviet hardliners? Do you remember the Civil Rights workers in 
Mississippi just 40 years ago or Rosa Parks 50 years ago?
Simple isn’t it. All we have to do is rise to the occasion. Of course, we may have to live a bit more frugally. There might be hardships. Perhaps it won’t go all my way. We may not even succeed. We are probably doomed. It’s hopeless. I can’t take it any more. Go away.
Let’s hope that’s not how it will play out. Mankind will pick up the ball and run. Don’t you think?
Next and Previous
Here is a summary of the nine main posts in the essay. Navigation links are located just below the summary.
GlobalWarming:1 discusses why Global Warming happened, who and what causes it, ending up with a list of villains. It did not go into the consequences of Global Warming. There was no 
discussion of impacts on the oceans, the Arctic, Greenland, El Nino, ecosystems, the weather, tundra and ice packs. The Kyoto Protocol or the Stern reports or other Global Warming topics were not covered. That is yet to come.
GlobalWarming:2 covers two main subjects. The UN provides a real mixed bag of positive and negative influences on the fight against Global Warming. The positive is that they try, have some credibility and many resources. The negative is that they fail. The current versions of the Kyoto Protocol and its associated reports do not reduce emissions. The CER system causes more harm than good. Solutions exist but are not acted on. Industrial strategies and national policies do little to reduce Global Warming – in fact, the opposite is often true in spite of rhetorical lip service.
Global Warming:3 examines the basic root cause of our problem: rising temperatures. Is the increase real and does it matter? Is it natural or caused by man? Are the temperatures unusual compared to history? Do GHGs actually cause the increase? What can past temperature variations tell us about what we face today? Can you even trust the basic data and analysis of temperatures? The post answers those and other questions in exuberant detail.
GlobalWarming:4 notes that Global Warming is not the first disaster forecast ever done, published and hyped. There were many in the past and as a rule they failed. The disaster in question simply did not happen because extending some historical trend into the future does not 
work – trends change. So the question is – why is this particular doom and gloom outlook right? What is different this time? As you will see, plenty is different.
GlobalWarming:5 reviews the role and issues of population growth. This is a vital issue for future emissions as shown in GlobalWarming:1. Historically over the past 250 years, the explosive growth in populations explains two thirds of the increase in GHG emissions. The rise in personal carbon use must be reversed as must other issues related to unbalanced growth in populations.
The current GlobalWarming:6 probes why Global Warming turned into a polarizing mess. History plays a role. Emotions such as fear impacts judgments. Lack of perspective is limiting true understanding. Lack of knowledge and clouded judgments don’t help. Many agendas are hidden from view. Rarely in human history have so many ignored so simple requirements for no good reason.
GlobalWarming:7 summarizes some important and a few not so important opinions on Global Warming. Global Warming is a battle ground, galvanizing the left against the right, neo conservatists against liberals, 
the sane against those not quite sane, the religious right against evangelists, politicians against constituents, reactionaries against activists, bloggers against bloggers, late show hosts against ratings, journalists against circulations, spokespersons against skeptics and, not least, scientists against scientists. This post contains a small sample of the rare truth, accusations, biases, opinions and propaganda thrown left and right, up and down.
GlobalWarming:8 is perhaps the meat of this series. It gets into the details of what is happening right now in the some 25 different real life areas. The true impacts of Global Warming range from ocean bottoms to mountain tops, from oil fields to highways, from tundra to tropics and from farm fields to smoke stacks. These items are not forecasts, assumptions or opinions but verifiable hard facts. The picture is indicative of your, and my, future. The earthly signs get worse by the day.
GlobalWarming:9 paints three scenarios (not forecasts) of what might happen in the future. There are pessimistic, optimistic and middle of the road pictures. The three scenarios use simple, common sense assumptions, very
different from the elaborate, multi million $ systems enjoyed by the UN, the Stern Report, EPA and others. The big systems rely on myriads of assumptions as input, many of which aren’t really known and/or subject to lots of complexity. I favor the KISS approach.
I’m by no means competing with the “big” studies or the smart people putting them together. I used to be a forecasting guru working for the UN, the World Bank, FAO, OECD, the EU and many Fortune 500 companies. I guess I have a right to an opinion. No one is required to consider my views.
I am completely nonaffiliated. No political party enjoys (or wants) my support. I have no axe to grind. I receive no monetary compensations, grants or sponsorships. There are no PayPal buttons on these pages. I have no obligations to fulfill. Office politics do not thrive around here. I promote no agendas except my own – the survival of us all. Occasionally, I put up some of the photos from my portfolios and my photo business.
GlobalWarming:7-9 will follow together with other commentaries and follow ups. Hang in there. The links below help you navigate this monster essay. It’s all quite important to your health.
Thank you. Karl
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Global Warming 5: Just Too Many Of You
March 14, 2007
Too many of you demand too much. You emit unprecedented and unsustainable amounts of carbon gases. You deplete nonrenewable resources. How many people can earth sustain and for how long? How much mismanagement is allowed? The air, oceans and lands can only provide, and take, so much. All resources are constrained, including food, energy and earth’s capacity of handling pollution. 
We, politically and personally, must start dealing with this climate thing. Check out my recent post “The Bleakest Outlook Yet” and you’ll see why. Too much time is spent arguing trivia or grandstanding trifles. Energy is wasted blaming this, that or someone, defending imaginary turfs, plotting petty deceptions and delivering meaningless rhetoric.
There may be a few occasional bright spots but they are far too dim and rare. Over the last few months, the frivolous and childish ploys exploded in mass media and on the web. It is the last thing we need. It is time to get mad.
Scene from a Classic
Howard Beale of the movie classic “Network” famously rants at the top of his rage:
“I don’t have to tell you things are bad. Everybody knows things are bad. We know the air is unfit to breathe and our food is unfit to eat. It’s like everything everywhere is going crazy. I don’t want you to protest. I don’t want you to riot. I want you to get mad! You’ve gotta say, “I’m a human being, goddamn it! My life has value.” I want all of you to get up out of your chairs. I want you to get up right now and go to the window, open it, and stick your head out and yell,”
“I’m mad as hell and I’m not going to take this any more!”
Try it on; it may save your life or even your sanity. Perhaps some one will listen. OK. All right, I know. I’ll return from the land of fantasy and try to behave. Back to order. It sure is a great movie, though. It fits our subject like a glove, in my not so humble opinion.
Back to Order
Sustainable populations and survivability are some of the most studied and argued subjects on Earth. It’s covered by a slew of academic specialties from demographics to sociology and economics to geography. The issues of growth are well known and there are policies in place to manage some aspects of “it’s just too many of you”. One major unresolved issue is how Global Warming affects the growth – or decline – in populations. An equally vital issue is the impact of population growth on emissions of greenhouse gases. The stream flows both ways.
Today’s world population of 6.6 billion may swell to 9 billion by 2050-2075 time frames. Most of the growth will be in the less developed countries. Estimates of sustainable population levels vary from 6 to 10 billion. Population forecasting has had their share of doomsday practitioners. Such dire outlooks have been, so far, embarrassingly off target like most disaster outlooks. That does not mean that we can ignore the impact of 6.6 billion people, growing quite rapidly.
While populations and Global Warming are the main subjects of this post, the scope is a bit wider. The world changed dramatically in the last 50 years. The rate of that change went off the chart. Complexity and interactions multiplied. We went from a small town society to a global hegemony. Issues previously unknown to the common man suddenly hit him in the face and the wallet.
It is not enough to only know the role of populations and emissions in Global Warming. The whole picture must be viewed, tackled, put in context and understood. Skeptics are right for the wrong reason when they say there is no such thing as Global Warming. Global Warming is just one of many factors that interact to create our future or lack thereof. The problem of smokestacks pouring out carbon dioxide must be viewed in light of what is happening in the world.
I’ll do what I can to make some sense out of this mess. That’s the goal of this huge multi part essay.
Tables of Contents and Other Stuff
This essay is split up in several individual posts. The following introduction simplifies navigation through the mass of material. If you have been following the series, you may (or not) want to skip right to the main content to avoid repetition. If so, hit the “Bypass” below. If you are new to the series, you may want to 1) start at the beginning of the series using this link: “Culprits, Scoundrels and Villains” or 2) check out the table of content and other explanations of what this is all about – just read on. The TOC button brings you to the essay’s Table of Contents.
About the Essay and Its Eight Main Parts
The essay is split into eight main posts due to its size. Click here for more details on each post.
- The first main post examines the basic reasons why we ended up in this dreadful mess.
- The second main post covers the political and UN scene.
- The third main post deals with rising temperatures.
- The “Sauerkraut” post dives into Europe and its mysteries.
- The fourth main post bares secrets about the forecasting business.
- The “Ann Coulter” post made some fun out of America’s favorite fascist.
- The “Bleakest Outlook Yet” previews the April 2007 UN IPCC Report
- The “Quick News” issue of 3-14-2007 updated you on British, EU and other news.
- The present fifth main post explains the issues due to rising populations.
- The sixth main post discloses public and not so public opinions on Global Warming
- The seventh main post looks at the very real effects of Global Warming already present.
- The eight main post explores possible outcomes: cure or disaster?
Additional posts cover special subjects, comments and news. The “Sauerkraut” post looks at Europe and its peculiar history of early tribes, wars and more wars, deceit, Fuehrers, Generalissimos, Emperors, Kings and Queens, imperialism, strange food, democracy and greed, finally ending up as the world’s largest market. The post looks at how all of that, more or less, relates to Global Warming. The post also evaluates, in detail, the recent EU proposal to reduce emissions by 20% by 2020. 
I couldn’t resist doing a piece on Ann Coulter. She makes a splendid living out of out-chock-jocking Howard Stern, Bill O’Reilly, Geraldo, Moammar al-Ghadafi, Rush Limbaugh, Jerry Falwell, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Pat Robinson, Hugo Chavez, Baghdad Bob, Joseph Goebbels and Dick Cheney all at once. You gotta admire ignorant persistence and ambition. Doing anything for a buck, she certainly managed to become America’s favorite fascist. Why not?
The “Bleakest Outlook Yet” is precisely that. There is nothing fun about this preview of the next UN IPCC report “Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability”. These reports are getting more and more alarming which is truly scary. All prior reports have underestimated the impact of climate change.
The “Quick News” feature may become a regular service to keep us all up to date on recent news and to call the BS floating around.
Table of Contents
An elaborate link and TOC (Table of Content) system helps you get around the mass of material in this essay of eight main posts. Use it to find what is of your most immediate interest. Just above, there is a TOC button that lets you enter the navigation system. Enjoy.
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- GlobalWarming:1 – Culprits, Scoundrels and Villains
- GlobalWarming:2 – Politics, Scandals, Mass Committees
- GlobalWarming:3 – Few Like It Hot
- GlobalWarming:Europe – Sauerkraut, Bourgogne, Bangers
- GlobalWarming:4 – Disastrous Disaster Forecasts
- GlobalWarming:Coulter – To Ann Coulter
- GlobalWarming:UN – The Bleakest Outlook Yet
- GlobalWarming:News – Quick News 3-14-2007
- This Post:GlobalWarming:5 – Just Too Many Of You
- Scene From a Classic
- Ode To An Ancient Past
- Fantasy and Reality
- Supply and Demand Reality Style
- Supply and Demand Global Warming Style
- Global Warming, Populations and Vice Versa
- Chant for the Confused
- How Many Will You Be?
- Aria for the Polar Bears
- Terrifyingly Scary Outlooks
- Disaster Outlooks UN Style
- Next and Previous
- GlobalWarming:6 – Lies, Madness and Some Truth
- GlobalWarming:7 – Terrifying Evidence
- GlobalWarming:8 – Cataclysmic Apocalypse?
Odes, Ballads, Songs and Arias
This essay contains real life mini stories. They describe usually small, even insignificant, effects of Global Warming. The aim is to make you consider reality, survival, pain and your own future. I cite simple stories about how some of us (humans, animals, plants, oceans and everything else) are already in, or cause, deep trouble. Here are links to the various little puzzle pieces:
- Allegro to “There Ain’t No Global Warming”
- Adagio to the Krill
- Mountain Top Chorale
- Tiger in Your Tank Two Step
- I Ain’t Seein’ Nuttin’ Strut
- Farming Greenland Fiesta
- Ballad of the Lemmings
- Carol to Failures
- Ode to an Ancient Past
- Chant for the Confused
- Aria for the Polar Bear
- Cacophony of a President
- Tale of the River
- Northeast Song
- Hymn to the North
- Parchment Míddjarn
- Eulogy for the Oceans
Images in this essay
The photos in this post are devoted to people, considering that is what makes up the somewhat 
abstract concept of “populations”. Most of the photos are from my own portfolios. I produced the factual graphs from my own databases which combine data from many sources into a reasonably complete and consistent set.
This blog, its design, text content (except quotes from others) and my own images and graphs are copyright © Leading Design, Inc 2006-2007. All Rights Reserved. I make absolutely no claims on images or quotes originating in other sources.
Songs and Carols – Ode to an Ancient Past
Let’s start with a mini story – The Ode to an Ancient Past. Researchers found a huge abnormality in Earth’s climate 55 million years ago. Temperatures soared related to a massive outpour of carbon gases. Here is the Ode to an Ancient Past:
The event (PETM) happened 55 million years ago. It was caused by a massive release of carbon, possibly from volcanic eruptions, massive fires, huge burps of methane gas or plant material. The greenhouse effect increased temperatures five to eight degrees Celsius for around 10,000 years. This has been known and researched for years.
The higher temperatures remained for the next 170,000 years. The North Pole weather was similar to that of today’s Florida. “If the climate was as insensitive to GHGs as the skeptics claim, there would be no way to make the Earth so warm for so long”.
The world’s ocean current system did a U-turn. Before the event, deep water up welled in the southern hemisphere; over about 40,000 years, the source of this up welling shifted to the northern hemisphere; it took another 100,000 years before recovering completely.
Ocean acidification likely caused a mass extinction of phytoplankton by reducing the availability of carbonate ions necessary for marine organisms to build calcium carbonate shells and exoskeletons.
There was ecological devastation, but new species rose from the ashes. Our ancient primate ancestors were winners (picture). The first true members of this group appeared virtually simultaneously in Asia, Europe and North America some 55 million years ago. The whole dispersal event happened within about 25,000 years. New research indicates that sudden, rapid global warming drove the dispersal.
In Wyoming, USA, animals such as giant horned bunnies arrived, the size of small elephants that eventually went extinct, but may be a close cousin of today’s rabbits. Other new species include ancestors of hoofed animals such as deer, pigs and camels, and a group that includes rhinos, tapirs and the dawn horse. Wyoming climate was sub-tropical at the time.
Our current carbon dioxide emissions are risking biological, chemical, and climate changes of a magnitude that has not been seen for more than 50 million years. We must develop the clean energy sources that can provide for economic growth and development without risking the natural world that is our endowment.
Isn’t it ironic that the last big Global Warming helped create mankind while the current version may make us extinct? The reason, of course, is that today’s humans, aka couch potatoes, are far less resilient than our forefathers. Who knows what might replace us, though. Will it be a new super species, if it comes to that bleak – for humans – stage? It appears spiders are quite resilient creatures. Are they the next rulers? Or will our luck keep up for a few more thousands of years?
Fantasy and Reality
Mankind evolved through three major phases. The first was the ancient inventions of hunting and associated tools. That sustained the early people for thousands of years. Then agriculture was discovered, leading to settlements and a lot more comforts. Finally, machines extended humans to produce seemingly endless goods, satisfying newly created demands and starting a race towards limitless standards of living. This development led to massive growth in populations. The growth in populations and technology led to Global Warming.
Realities were never considered in these “mammoth leaps forward”. The price of cultivating farm land was mainly sweat till fertilizers came along. The price of fishing was also mostly sweat and eventually fuel. The price of putting up and running a textile mill was building materials and then labor and raw materials at a cost that did not reflect eventual scarcities. If you thought supplies were indeed unlimited, why worry about depletion?
Artificially low prices created enormous imbalances relative to population growth. Raw materials were extracted and consumed without applying a price on its non renewable status. Waste products were produced and dumped without considering the cost of pollution. Farm lands and urbanization developed without accounting for the price of destroying long standing, sensitive ecosystems that make life possible. No charge was applied to filling the atmosphere with a deadly mix of warming and cooling gases, plain poisons, smog agents, ozone killers and no one knows what else.
Finally, two other major imbalances will affect our future. The first is the huge imbalance in incomes between less developed and industrial nations. The second is the differential in population growth; poor countries let their populations multiply while high income countries experience much lower growth or even declines. These two imbalances will create migration and social issues on an unprecedented scale.
Nothing Stays the Same
The hidden laissez-faire problems piled up for thousands of years. Now, they caught up with us, seemingly without warning. The rate of change jumped way up. Trends oscillated from left to right, top to bottom. Suddenly, the whole world was visible to, and ruling, us all. Tensions multiplied. Raw 
materials showed signs of running out, pollution killed real folks, Global Cooling and Warming played hell with our fears.
In the 1960s, concerns about explosive growth in populations were on the agenda. Man entered space. Social upheavals were common. The Green movement was born. Civil rights became important. JFK establishes the Peace Corps. The Soviets crushed the Prague Spring. The French battled students and worker riots. Woodstock became a legend. Martin Luther King, John F. Kennedy, Robert F. Kennedy, Che Guevara and Malcolm X were all murdered. Mao’s Little Red Book quickly printed 600 million copies.
In the 1970s food supplies became an issue and pollution suddenly cost money. Greenpeace was founded. The Pill became commonly used. The 1970s also was the decennium of scarce oil and long waits at the gas stations. Suddenly the price of oil got close to its real value to the shock of a world. Nations went to war over fishery supplies. Intel’s first microprocessor hit the market. Pollution started to kill people in earnest. Aircraft hijacking mushroomed. Terrorism spread, in particular in industrial countries. The Munich Olympics Massacre became symbol of mindless killings. Elvis 
Presley allegedly died. Feminism took off. Gay rights became a movement.
In the 1980s, AIDS started killing millions. Most whaling was stopped. The Bhopal chemical leak killed 10,000. The world turned conservative led by Reaganomics and Thacherism. Perestroika, Glasnost and Tiananmen Square became household words. The Berlin Wall fell. The Ozone Holes were discovered. The Chernobyl reactor blew up. Exxon Valdez ran into a reef. The notion of Globalization was popularized. John Lennon was murdered, as were Indira Gandhi and Olof Palme. The Asian Tigers conquered their place in economic history books. The US stock market suffered its Black Monday. Political Correctness was required. El Nino started creating chaos.
In the 1990s, Global Warming popped up its ugly head in earnest. Politics moved left, yet capitalism flourished. The end of the Cold War reunified Germany. India and China started their meteoric ascent. Al Gore’s Internet connected the world as did PCs, CNN and cell phones. Much of Africa descended into civil wars. Genocides became an everyday word. Dolly the sheep was the first official clone. Genetically engineered crops went commercial. The EU was born out of EEC. Economies and dot coms boomed. Stock options and IPOs enriched a few. The Japanese bought most of Hollywood 
and others, eventually losing billions, ending their invincible air.
Today, in the mid to late first decade of the 2000s, we worry about extreme weather, pandemics, flooding, social security, hideous foreigners invading our lands, crazed but generally unknown or fictional terrorists killing our neighbors and whether gay marriage is OK or not. We remember Enron, WorldCom, dot coms, 9/11, a mystical War on Terror, the strangest US President ever diminishing the power of the US across the world and Toyotas and Hondas slaughtering Ford and GM.
If you think about it, perhaps you’ll see a pattern in the madness. These up and down events and problems were, and are, caused by the checks and balances present in any system being thrown out of sync. You have seen the graphs. Things were flat for a million years. Then by 1750, things started to head straight up, be it populations, industrial production, GNP, indoor plumbing, carbon fuels, emissions, concentrations, pollution, space travel, commuting, extinctions, milk prices and of course temperatures. By the 1960s, things caught up with us. Matters switched into overdrive. Ancient imbalances went critical and all hell broke loose. Who the heck are we to assume the old abuses would never have to be paid for?
Fish Stories: Cod Catches and War
Take North Atlantic cod fisheries as an example. Viewed as being of unlimited supply for over 1,000 years, cod was over fished as no price applied to depletion or management. Rising populations enjoyed great and cheap food. Then suddenly the demand/supply balance caught up with reality. 
The supply of cod went cold. The price of cod abruptly was infinite on many traditional, especially Canadian, fishing grounds. No matter what the price, the fish was no longer there. Fishermen lost their livelihood; in Canada alone 40,000.
Alaskan Pollack and other fishes became staples. But now the fisheries are more regulated. Some lessons were learnt. No longer is infinite supply assumed. That’s the good news. The bad news is that the Grand Banks, Labrador and Newfoundland still lack cod after almost fifteen years. Russians are still over fishing the Barents Sea. North Sea cod fisheries are collapsing as you read this.
Other, more regulated cod fishing grounds are still thriving. Icelandic catches are strong. Of course, Iceland furiously defended their grounds in the Cod War of the 1970s. Little Iceland effectively defeated the Royal Navy of the British Isles. Many fishermen in Hull and other British ports suddenly
lost their livelihoods.
I bet you didn’t think anyone could go to war over cod, did you? Especially since it produces the most hellishly bad testing item on earth – cod liver oil, given to children as punishment for their sins and occasional illnesses. Well, the war happened, but it really wasn’t much of a war. I don’t think anyone was actually hurt. Some damage was made to vessels in a series of close encounters between the brave lads of Iceland and the equally brave lads of England with everyone freezing their butts off in the icy waters off Iceland.
Yet, here is what happened:
- For ages, cod fisheries weren’t as good is in the past. Alarming to both Iceland with a whole economy depending on the ugly thing and England not ready to let go of Fish And Chips (Fish’n’Chips or Fish Supper), that long time staple of its cuisine.
- Then, the 1970s came along with an even more alarming outlook – the cod is disappearing! And the Icelanders saw the few remaining fish caught by vile foreigners. It was THEIR fish, damn it. So the Icelanders declared their fishing grounds extended out 200 miles from their coast line. No one was allowed fishing inside except the brave lads of Iceland.
- The British trawlers said, hell with you and proceeded to fish as if nothing had happened. Big mistake. The Icelanders called in their Navy, or Coast Guard as they call it, which is actually, at the time, four small patrol vessels each with one rather small gun. The Iceland Coast Guard is manned by no less than 150 brave lads and lasses.
- The Icelandic Coast Guard (motto: ,,Við erum til taks.‘‘ “We are ready.”) proceeded to the high seas and cut the trawler wires of the Enemy ships, causing severe economic setbacks and harm to the brave lads of Britain.
- The British, seeing their battered Cod dry up, had no choice but to send the mighty Royal Navy to the defense of its trawlers upon which everyone started ramming each other, resulting in damage to several ships. The 22 ship Royal Navy fleet almost but not quite sunk the patrol vessels of Iceland, who nevertheless continued cutting the British nets. Several shots were fired across the bow, mostly using blanks.
- By 1976, cooler minds prevailed, agreements were signed and peace was restored. And you should know, this is the THIRD cod war in the proud history of the Icelandic Islands. And that is not even counting the Cod War of 1893!
The point is that many species are over fished because management restrictions (“price”) have not been stringent, or real, enough. After 1,000s of years of no price at all on excessive fishing, reality caught up. The resource went essentially extinct. Without realistic prices, supply and demand will be out of sync. Some resources will head for depletion. Others will be under utilized.
Supply and Demand Reality Style
Resources, such as food and energy, to support populations depend on four interrelated components: prices, raw material reserves, technology and productivity. Gains in the two last kept 
us alive for thousands of years. Understating the first component, prices, led to excessive and eventually unsustainable growth in the wrong areas since limits to the second factor, reserves, were never understood or considered. Combining low prices, innovation, seemingly abundant raw materials and plain hard work over the last thousand years led to populations growing by 2,000%.
With populations up 2,000% plus huge leaps in standards of living, many raw material reserves decline simply because we consume them. Earth is no bigger than a thousand years ago. Plenty of oil, gas and coal fields are already silent, depleted and forever abandoned. The capacity of air, oceans and biomass to store greenhouse gases is declining. There are limits to food productivity and farm lands, especially as Global Warming reduces arable acreage. Fresh water supplies are dwindling as glaciers disappear and too much is tapped. 
There is only so much coal and oil left in the ground. It takes 80 years to replace the tree cut down to print an Ann Coulter article. Too many of us labor in industries that do little to sustain life, such as – come to think of it – almost all industries.
What we want must be matched to what we can get and it isn’t. We must apply the true prices of supporting our tribe. We do not pay anywhere close to the real cost of children, air conditioning, food, SUVs, health care, Led Zeppelin albums and retirement or, as a matter of fact, simply existing. Prices are ridiculously understated. The price of emitting carbon gases into the air is not zero as is commonly assumed. The price of running out of oil or cod is not zero. Food prices do not reflect reduced farm land as climate changes. No one plans for the cost of famines or pandemics in “civilized” countries. Taxes do not cover the quite possible need to relocate entire cities as oceans rise. By understating prices, we spin out of control even with the most clever controls and policies aimed at unlimited growth. No DHS or similar emergency organizations have a clue how to deal with any of these issues.
Tragically, organizations such as EPA, CDC and numerous think tanks, universities and industries are quite aware of these 
problems yet do little to resolve them, perhaps to please a famously ignorant President. This ain’t rocket science. The solutions are well known. I mentioned four factors that support mankind. Let’s make that five – add the political will to do what is needed as a required component. That component is lacking in most parts of the world.
The price of driving a car must reflect the fact that the air needs to be cleaned of all the pollution caused by the chain from finding the oil, extracting and refining it to pouring it into your car and then driving along. We will have a problem as long as emissions are essentially a free bee. Of course, add the elusive environmental and social cost of building the car in the first place.
There is an urgency to reduce demand of dwindling resources through real prices. As it is, we simply keep depleting resources. The longer that continues, the higher the real prices become. When a resource is depleted, its price is infinite. Finding alternative sources to overcome depletion relies on a proper price formation. Too low prices means the alternatives aren’t developed and won’t be there when needed. Then true prices keep going up and at some point, we can’t afford them. The system breaks down. The growing population can no longer be supported. People die.
Supply and Demand Global Warming Style
Many of us may not think of Global Warming as something tied to supply and demand, resources and pricing. All we do is dump these gases into the atmosphere and forget about them. That of course is a bit naive. Such actions have consequences that are quite complex. Supply and demand theory is a way to reduce that complexity.
Greenhouse gases are both a user of resources and a supplier of other resources. Greenhouse gases uses resources such as carbon storages or sinks. Oceans, the atmosphere and 
biomass provide such storage. The storages today contain many teratonnes of carbon. There are also the potential of man made storages in depleted oil and gas fields.
Greenhouse gases are resources themselves. Many of these gases are used in industry, for instance. Quite importantly, mankind needs a certain level of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere or we would rapidly freeze to death. But too high concentrations will cause all the problems and eventual catastrophe of Global Warming.
On the supply side we have all the processes, natural or man made, that result in the emissions into air. On the demand side we have storages and processes that attempt to balance the supply in a natural manner. This balancing act is really a chemical/biological/environmental issue where “prices” in the normal sense really don’t have much impact. So far, that is.
But there is another layer to the supply/demand equation related to why greenhouse gases end up in the air. Partly, we depend on natural phenomena which we can do little about. Then we deal with the part we can control and there the control mechanism is applying proper prices. 
On the natural side, as an example, the most prominent and powerful GHG is humidity in the atmosphere. Increase the humidity and temperatures go up. Such an increase may be caused by increased evaporation from oceans which in turn may be caused by man made emissions of GHGs. But evaporation and humidity are not controlled by humans and attaching a price to such processes is not productive or even possible.
On the other hand, humans allow a very large share of emissions of GHGs by running industries, pursuing deforestation and so on. That is part of the supply of greenhouse gases and is definitely sensitive to pricing. Historically, the price of emissions was zero which put us in this spot in the first place. It never should have been zero and it cannot continue to be zero.
Kyoto style CERs and EU Allowances put a price of sorts on some emissions. The CERs in particular have too many loopholes to be a real pricing mechanism. Allowances gyrate wildly in actual prices on the market and are not exactly good measures of long term equilibrium prices. What exists as a pricing mechanism today is immature, volatile and cannot be used as justification for investment. Politicians – do something to support stable prices. That is how you beat the devil.
|
Supply |
Price |
Demand |
Price |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Natural GHG sources |
No |
Natural sinks |
No |
|
Other natural processes |
No |
||
|
Bioengineering |
Yes |
||
|
Manmade GHG sources |
Yes |
Natural sinks |
No |
|
Manmade sinks |
Yes |
||
|
Other natural processes |
No |
||
|
Bioengineering |
Yes |
||
|
Substitute energy |
Yes (partly) |
Not carbon driven |
Not carbon driven |
Neither the natural supply of GHGs, nor the natural demand, is subject to pricing. No matter what humans might be willing to pay, natural sinks will not increase, nor will natural emissions decrease. Bioengineering might impact the demand side at some point and is clearly subject to 
price effects.
The supply of manmade GHG emissions is clearly very strongly subject to pricing. A high price, through taxes, CERs or allowances, would reduce emissions. The technology of manmade sinks is well established and it is just a matter of pricing to make such deposits real. Bioengineering could also be a price driven demand factor.
Substitute energy sources are well established technologies held back by artificially low carbon fuel prices as well as a multitude of national policies. Nuclear energy, for instance, is subject to restrictions in almost all countries. Solar and wind power are subject to weather patterns. Forestry and biomass based energy is subject to availability.
Global Warming, Populations and Vice Versa
The impact on Global Warming from populations is not a common subject in the many discussions on Global Warming. It generally is not quoted as an important cause of Global Warming. Usually, the discussion is focused on the dire effects of Global Warming on populations such as migration, famines and water shortages. There are exceptions to this rule; Greenpeace, for instance, provides a more general view that does account for the age old issue of the explosion in populations across the globe.
Every one wants a good life, whether a farmer in India, an industrial worker in China, a soldier in North Korea, a game warden in Africa, a former Communist in Bulgaria, the guy next door or even myself, come to think of it. Not only is standard of living important to us, we insist on multiplying, thereby creating 
more individuals demanding a decent standard. In some areas – Europe and Russia in particular – is that fertility urge somewhat controlled but in most areas it is not. China makes a big deal out of their one child policy but data does not support their claims. High standards of living and a couple of children are really the two factors that motivate most of us. Very few are prepared to give that up – most understandably so.
This incessant desire for growth inevitably results in ever more carbon emissions as long as history is allowed to repeat itself. That truly is the death trap, which leaves us with four possibilities; 1) do not make children; 2) reduce living standards; 3) reduce emissions or 4) become extinct. Take your pick.
One way to look at it: there is no need to take a pick. It will be made for us. As Global Warming continues unabated, there will simply be a natural selection. Many will die, which eventually reduces emissions. Some will survive; making ends meet one way or another. Good old Darwin’s “survival of the fittest” theory still is relevant.
Long, Long Trends
Population growth as a cause of Global Warming is one of its most frightening and difficult aspects. The danger is not population growth per se (in our context), but the closely associated demand for ever more carbon based energy and goods in general. Simply look at the very long term graph below showing populations and emissions going back over 2,000 years.
The graph above shows the explosion in world populations from around 1750 and on, coinciding roughly with industrialization. Prior to 1750, populations rose quite slowly, going all the way back to the year 0. Emissions of GHGs were flat and largely insignificant prior to the late 1700s, then they exploded as more and more mills and factories were built.
The big population question, of course, is how much can the world provide for these masses on a sustained basis? What can it do to neutralize the horrifying waste products generated? With the curve going practically straight up, how many people can be fed? Most of the population growth is in less developed areas while most industrial nations are stabilizing or, in some cases, already declining. How will this disparity be managed; the growth in labor supply is in one set of countries while the demand is in areas far away, both geographically and culturally.
There’s Too Many of You
Let’s go one more analytical step. The graph below shows the World and the US population data using a logarithmic vertical scale. If you are not familiar with such math, a log scale means a small number looks a lot bigger and large numbers look smaller than with the linear scale used in the previous graph. A straight line indicates that the growth rate is stable. An upward curving line means that the growth rate is going up. That is a very bad news in our case. If the line curves towards flat the rate of increase is moderating, a good sign. If the line is flat, neither going up nor down, then the growth rate is zero – a major step forward in our case. If the line actually turns downwards, then the rate growth rate is negative. That would be excellent news.
What is that dramatic drop in US populations (brown area)? In 1492 Christopher Columbus arrived to the New World or, in his mistaken opinion, India. Others followed. The indigenous population was partly slaughtered by the invaders’ superior weapons. Even more deadly, the invaders brought smallpox. Yellow fever, whopping cough, alcohol, typhus, influenza, measles, bubonic plague, mumps and what have you. These illnesses utterly decimated the Native Americans, a process that is still going on today.
Beyond this historical tragedy, there is a lesson to be learned. Changing circumstances can bring extreme consequences very rapidly. The Native American democide is one case. The influenza of 1919 and the Black Death of Europe are additional examples. Will Global Warming cause similar massive disasters? No one knows, of course, as we are far beyond any comparable situation. But, without being an alarmist, it is possible and should be considered in contingency planning. Unfortunately, no such planning exists to my knowledge.
Let’s examine the graph’s tail-end. The World population line curves upwards: the rate of growth increases. That is bad news, making it difficult to control GHG emissions since most of this growth is in unregulated less developed countries. The US growth rate is declining slightly. The US is unique among developed countries – 
most others have much lower growth rates, some even experience declining populations.
Anytime you look at populations and related events, one inescapable fact is important. A person born today will most likely be around in 60-70-80 years, depending on his/her heritage. This carries a built in inertia that is very hard to overcome since most of us resist change, in particular for the perceived worst. Changing human behavior is much harder than changing the look of a car, a toaster or the views of a politician (except Bush). All solutions to Global Warming involve changing human behavior, expectations and overcoming inertia. The inertia problem is even tougher considering the window of opportunity to avoid the horrendous consequences of Global Warming is no longer than a few years at best, not 70 years.
Yet such change is not impossible. Consider the revolution of the Internet in less than a decade. Remember how PCs conquered the World in just a decade or two. Check out (as we will) the success of the US Clean Air Act. Note how AIDS was quite successfully battled in the developed World (while leaving the rest of the World dying). Look at the almost extinct measles, mumps, rubella, pertussis, polio, infant mortality, smallpox, plague, diphtheria and tuberculosis, ignoring for the moment the reoccurrence of strands resistant to prior cures.
Such changes required clear and inquisitive minds, dedication to truth/science and the willingness to try something new. Unfortunately, such an attitude is usually limited to the abstract technical and scientific world. Most of us do not live in that clean world. Witness the almost total, mindless inertia of Shias versus Sunnis, Soccer hooligans team by team, Pro-life versus Pro-choice, Evolution versus Creation, Us versus Foreigners, Oprah versus Letterman, Suns versus Spurs, Gay marriages or not, Global Warming or not, Right to Die or not, Democrats versus Republicans, Bush versus 6.5 billion others, Pot versus Booze, Crime versus Justice, SUVs versus Minis, NRA versus Sanity or, finally, Men versus Women.
Stop Those Emissions – Right Now
The graph below shows the growth rates of populations and carbon emissions. Moreover, it shows the part of emissions associated with population growth (Emissions per Capita) and the balance, technology. Growth in populations accounted for 2/3 of the growth in emissions. The technology factor made up the remaining 1/3 of emissions.
Populations and made carbon emissions were low or almost flat prior to 1750-1800, then they mushroomed. People found cheap sources of energy for the new factories, keeping warm and other uses. That led to an incredible rise in standards of living and allowed populations to multiply quickly. The cheap energy was mostly carbon based: coal and oil. Major carbon emissions followed.
In the battle of Global Warming skeptics and believers, skeptics often claim Global Warming is just a natural cycle, thus nothing us humans need to worry about. 
The believers take the opposite tack, pointing out that emissions are completely outside any historical range. The many graphs in this essay totally debunk the skeptics’ argument. There have never been as many energy dependent people on this Earth before. Today’s population over 20 times that of a thousand years ago. Man made emissions today are without parallel, or some 17,000 times those a thousand years ago. Prior to the early 1800s, neither population size nor pollution was all that significant in the global survival equation. There is no way to make that claim today.
The human simple and natural desires to breed and improve the comforts of life led to an unsustainable situation, far outside any historical norm. Any logic would tell you such drastic change will backfire at some point. All evidence indicates that point has been reached and that the consequences will be painful, if not lethal.
How can such natural and understandable desires lead to possible extinction? Well, look closer. The explosion in population is due to many “non natural” factors. These factors allowed the population to expand far beyond historical rates. The increase in living standards is a man made phenomena which rests on a “borrow from the future” attitude. Consider:
- Health care advances dramatically reduce infant death and extend life. Miracle drugs combat disease. Some of us even live healthy life styles. As more of us live longer, we force more carbon into the air.
- Almost all of us are fed royally by agricultural and fisheries productivity such as fertilization and various ways to alter species. Manipulating the environment is a risky long term route.
- Many of us have marvelous man made shelters, heated or cooled, with indoor water, electricity and plumbing, allowing us to comfortably survive in harsh environments at the expense of huge amounts of carbon emissions.
- We enjoy man made innovations in most aspects of life: freedom, security, money, jobs, water/highway/air/rail transportation, postal and many other services, phones and iPods. Even iPods cause greenhouse effects.
- We endlessly consume resources, many non replaceable. Miraculously, our garbage and human waste disappears. Astonishingly, lights come on by flipping a switch. Somehow, stores are stocked with far more than anyone needs. That convenience comes at a very high price few of us consider or care about.
On the bleak side, today we experience a second wave of carbon emissions. The first wave was industrialization of the developed countries which is now maturing. The frantic race for ever higher living standards may be moderating a little. The heavy reliance of carbon energy is slowly, very slowly replaced by alternative albeit expensive sources – solar, wind, water, perhaps nuclear and non carbon biomass energy. Technology such as energy conservation, hybrid cars, improved appliances and industrial measures gain ground.
Now, the second wave sets in. Less developed areas want the same standard of living they see personally, on television and in movies from the “West”. Some countries are quite successful in 
achieving massive growth. The Asian Tigers, China, India, Russia, South Africa, Latin America and some others are all good examples. After hundreds of years of abuse, carbon based energy is still the cheap way to quickly increase standards of living. Carbon emissions in, say, China and India are now out of control and without limits as is, by the way, the case in the US under the policies of George W. Bush.
Pollution control is a much lower priority in too many minds: “Spend your future today”. We have all seen pictures, some right here, of the smog filled skies over smoke pouring stacks with people clad in mouth masks coughing and hurrying along, tears streaming from their inflamed eyes. Somewhere the path to higher standards of living went very wrong but that seems not to diminish the dreams at all. So the emissions and pollution continue at an ever increasing rate 
with a high price to humans, ecosystems and our collective future.
You really deal with two issues. First, these “less” developed areas are the source of almost all growth in populations, putting heavy upwards pressure on their carbon based energy use. Second, each and every of these individuals wants to improve his/her lot. The energy spiral continues.
How do you tell such countries to stop their quest for a more comfortable life a la the West? How do you tell them they can’t have what the guys on the other side of tracks have? The solution according to the Kyoto Protocol is to let a few Western countries pay billions in carbon emission credits – subsidies really – for marginal and largely non-measurable improvements as these countries continue to pollute. The CER approach is inequitable, corrupt and will never solve the problem. So the original problem persists.
On a bizarre side note, the less developed world in their understandable desire for air conditioning is actually doing us a “favor”. They produce and use millions of cheap, Freon leaking air conditioners. Freon is a cooling gas, reducing the ozone layer. Unfortunately, a reduced ozone layer causes all kinds of health hazards, but nice try.
Chant for the confused
As is my habit, I add a few practical items I call hymns, odes, songs, tales and so forth. The purpose is to demonstrate in concrete terms little and some not so little events going on in the present. None of the events, by them selves, destroy the whole world or are even noticed by most. But these little stories add up to show something very strange (to some) is indeed happening. Here is the “Chant for the Confused” animals, plants and insects (Source: here):
Bears have stopped hibernating in the mountains of northern Spain in what may be one of the strongest signals yet of how much climate change is affecting the natural world. Spanish meteorologists predict that this year is likely to be the warmest year on record in Spain, similar to the UK.
The osprey found in the lochs and glens of the Scottish Highlands in the summer
months usually migrate to West Africa to avoid the freeze. This winter, ospreys have been spotted in Suffolk and Devon. Swallows, which also normally migrate to Africa for the winter, have been also seen across England this winter.
The red admiral butterfly which hibernates in winter has been spotted in gardens this month, as has the common darter dragonfly, usually seen between mid-June and October, which has been seen in Cheshire, Norfolk and Hampshire.
The smew, a diving duck, flies west to the UK for winter from Russia and Scandinavia. This year, though, they have been mainly absent from the lakes and reservoirs between The Wash and the Severn.
Evergreen ivy and ox-eye daisies are still blooming and some oak trees, which are usually bare by November, were still in leaf on Christmas Day last year.
The buff-tailed bumblebee is usually first seen in spring. Worker bees die out by the first frost, while fertilized queen bees survive underground between March and September. This December, bees have been seen in Nottingham and York.
Primroses and daffodils are already flowering at the National Botanic Garden of Wales, in Carmarthenshire. ‘Early Sensation’ daffodils usually flower from January until February. Horticulturists put it down to the warm weather.
In the Netherlands, more than 240 wild plants flowered in the first 15 days of December, along with more than 200 cultivated species. Examples included cow parsley and sweet violets. Just two per cent of these plants normally flower in winter, while 27 per cent end their main flowering period in autumn and 56 per cent before October.
Personally, I’ve never heard of Spanish bears, glens from the Scottish Highlands, Rear Admiral Butterflies, smews, ox-eye daisies, buff-tailed bumblebees or cow parsley. None seem to make much difference in my life. The elusive sleep of some bears or who is flying where and when seems non critical to me. Maybe you think the same. On the other hand, do look around you, wherever you are. In all probability, something similar is happening in your corner of the world. If not, it will be. That’s what the hymns, tales, odes and chants are all about. Look around you.
How Many Will You Be?
Population growth is where no one advocates the “Do Nothing” scenario. If you extrapolate the growth in world population in the 1960-1990 periods from today’s 6.6 billion level, then by 2050 there will be 13 billion of us on Earth. That will not happen, given widely accepted views. If it does, billions of us will be very hungry and probably dangerously angry. There are no resources available to sustain twice as many of you.
Growth declined in the 1990s and early 2000s. Reasonable estimates for 2050 are around 8.5-9 billion. So there is a shortfall between the “Do Nothing” outlook and the more realistic outlooks of over 4 billion people. That is the result of allowing patterns that break with historical trends – growth is reduced by almost 60% through assumed pro activity and plain economics. The UN even projects declining world populations in the last half of this century.
In spite of very sophisticated forecast models, actual population in 2050 is really anyone’s guess. But the probability of the 8.5-9 billion estimates is pretty high. Demographics benefit from a unique feature – around half of that population is already born today. That is not a forecast but a stabilizing fact assuming no catastrophe such as pandemics spreading uncontrollably, meteors hitting us or all out nuclear war happens. This inertia helps the accuracy of the forecasts.
Cradle to Casket
Here are the components considered in a population forecast: The current population, its age and gender status is Item #1. The base forecast follows the individuals, grouped by age, gender and 
possibly other demographics, for as long as possible into the future. We all get one year older each year. Eventually we meet our fate and become part of the mortality rate. Before we reach this stage, most of us have reproduced which is accounted for by the fertility rate. Thus we get little persons that enter the forecast cycle like every one else. The last major item is net immigration which usually considers both legal and illegal comings and goings. A good thing is that net immigration so far equals zero on a world wide level. Many forecasting systems consider far more factors and provide extremely detailed forecasts almost down to a neighborhood block.
The graph below contains examples of basic demographics in a few areas. Contrast life in Japan to that in Swaziland. Swaziland life expectancy is 33 years compared to 82 years in Japan. That’s the price of being poor.
The current population and its structure are mostly very well known facts. Not much uncertainty there. Both the fertility and the mortality rates are thoroughly studied and usually changes slowly, with some exceptions. Wars, famine, HIV, bird flu, leaders such as Kim Jong-Il and George W. Bush are examples of potentially fast moving exceptions. The slower moving influences on fertility include women in working life, economics of having a child (costly), government incentives and disincentives, lower marriage rates and higher divorce rates, contraceptives and abortions. A long term change in mortality is influenced by health factors, economics and environmental trends.
Let’s take a look at forecasted population growth, by Groups of demographic similarities:
Group 1 includes pre industrial societies and applies only to the poorest on Earth. These countries have a high birth rate but low life expectance. These countries will see a high population growth in the 1-50 age brackets but will be plagued by a multitude of health issues, including starvation, malaria and violence. Swaziland belongs in this category (see graph above).
Group 2 examples include Nigeria, Kenya and Bangladesh. All see very high birth rates coupled with better health care and an increasing life expectancy. Many less developed nations fall into this group. Overall, the largest part of Earth’s increase in population will be seen here. 
Groups 3 and 4 include most industrial countries: they see or will see a zero growth population in the foreseeable future. Most of Western Europe fits in this group. Russia suffer declining population, partly due to health issues (oh, that vodka). China, Brazil and India are aiming for zero population growth, largely using birth control (China’s one child policy, so far a failure). Other countries see urbanization, women in the work force, contraception and the price of raising a child. South Korea, Malaysia and South Africa are members of this group.
Group 5 is the ultimate step. These countries are post industrial with an emphasis on services and information technology. Sweden, Germany and Italy are entering this group. They will experience declining populations due to low birth rates and an aging population.
About a few myths: Abortion plays a very minor role: about 0.7% of all pregnancies end in abortion, reducing world population growth by about 0.001% annually. Infant mortality, on the other hand, affects about 8% of births world wide, ranging from 19% in Angola to 0.2% in Sweden and Singapore. Infant mortality world wide is more than 10 times as mortal a factor as abortions. HIV deaths are declining in developed countries. In 2005 about 2.8 million died and, since 1981, some 25 million perished. Traffic accidents claim 1.2 million lives annually. All of the preceding causes of death are minor compared to heart disease and cancer, accounting for close to half of all deaths.
A Ration of Years
Forecasting increased life expectation is next to impossible. There is no way to determine when a cure for heart disease or cancer is available globally, much less in St. Louis, USA. All you can do is guess based on historical events and, here we go again, extrapolate into the future. What about biotech – once so promising? Will Michael J. Fox (and many others) win over some politicians to accelerate cell stem research? If so, will it actually be the expected break-through? Will Bill Gates’ and William Buffet’s massive philanthropy succeed where so many major organizations have failed? No one knows.
To the right is a graph of US life expectancy. It shows a nice, smooth, steady trend since the 1930s. Why wouldn’t that continue for the foreseeable future? Well, it might. As long as Mad Cow Disease, Nile River mosquitoes, Bird Flu, new HIV strands, Ebola, re surging smallpox and tuberculosis, the declining effectiveness of many antibiotics plus a host of unforeseen medical problems will have no effect. You’d assume nuclear proliferation would be harmless. You’d ignore much of what this essay is describing, including the upcoming issue of global warming.
There is no reason to expect history to be much help when you attempt to see into the future. You may be optimistic or pessimistic – it makes no difference. In neither case do you actually know. That does not mean we are totally clueless. Historically, the pattern is clear: we are getting older, bigger and smarter. Life expectancy is up. Why shouldn’t that continue? You haven’t been paying attention, have you? NEVER assume history will repeat itself. We are not only getting bigger, we are getting fatter, less ambulatory and more receptive to a host of diseases.
Too Many, Too Few
Let’s turn to birth rates and infant survivability probabilities. There are essentially three groups of nations – largely similar to the Groups above. The first group will experience high growth in spite of high infant mortality and dismal medical facilities. HIV will also add to mortality. Even so, the lack of family planning such as contraceptives will result in these nations causing practically all of Earth’s increase in population. These countries have population growth rates ranging from 1+% to 8% per year, averaging some 3-4%.
The next segment consists of countries that would have a high growth rate, because of high birth rates, unless they had not taken strong measures. China (one child or else) and India 
(contraceptives or else) are the prime examples. After all, together they account for almost 20% of the world’s population. Still, both countries have growing populations – India 1.4% and China 0.6% per year. Extrapolate that till 2055 will lead to aver 3 billion people compared to 2.4 today. That might mean they’d account for a mind-boggling 35% of the Earth’s population, up from 20%. I sure hope that will never happen – it’d be a major risk to all of us.
Then we have third group – that of the industrial countries:
- The US has a population of 300 million, growing at a rate of .9%. Only Australia, New Zealand and Canada have higher rates of .9-1.0% among industrial nations.
- Compare that with slow growers such as the Netherlands .5%, Norway .4%, Denmark .4%, Sweden .3%, France .3%, UK .2%, Japan .2%, Switzerland .2%, Finland .2%, Spain .1%, Austria .1%, Belgium .1%.
- Then there are the stagnant or declining nations: Poland, 0%, Germany 0%, Portugal -.1%, Hungary -.2%, Romania -.2%, Russia – .3%, Ukraine – .6% and Estonia – .9%.
Eye balling the growth rates into five groups group:
- Less developed countries – about 3.5% population growth and 3 billion people today
- The China and India mammoths – about 1% growth and 2.4 billion people today
- North America (ex-Mexico) and Australia, New Zealand – about .9% growth and about 360 million people today
- Western Europe – about .2% growth and some 370 million people today
- Eastern Europe and Russia – about -.4% and roughly 230 million people today
First, we have the less developed countries with huge increases in populations. This is a large supply of labor coming on stream. Unfortunately, these countries do not generally possess the resources to utilize or even support such a huge, mostly unskilled labor force.
Then we have the middle block – China, India, North America and Oceania – that have growing populations and thus at least a start on the supply of labor. They certainly have the opportunity to continue the high economic growth already in place. China is most likely self sufficient in labor, India may for some time have a surplus as its economic growth accelerates. North America may or may not have a demand for additional labor, depending on supply and productivity. Of course, the US is a very desirable immigration target and can easily import selected labor as needed. 
But consider Europe and its no-growth and aging population. Labor will be scarce. Europe’s only internal source for growth is productivity which goes only so far. Europe has imported labor for ages (did you really think that BMW was built by Germans?). The traditional labor sources of the Balkans and Turkey will not be able or willing to continue exporting their people to a cold and discriminating Northern Europe.
When Russia, Ukraine and Eastern Europe truly get going – and that will happen – you will see a labor shortage develop on a magnificent scale. And the only significant, untapped source of labor will be located in those less developed countries, mostly Africa. A second round of slave trade, anyone?
Immigration, Emigration
Net immigration of labor has worked fine in many cases, both in Europe, the US and elsewhere. Still, net immigration is an emotion laden subject. Two factors are important. First, immigration is generally viewed by the receiving country as uncomfortable at best, concern in the middle ground and downright violence at its worst. Second, the next generation of mobile labor may not be as skilled as the prior generation but a lot more militant.
A Big Picture
Here is a map showing immigration/emigration trends across the globe (Source Wikipedia):
Mexicans and Caribbean move to the US, Eastern Europeans move to Western Europe, Greenlanders sadly move who knows where (Denmark?). Most of Asia and the Middle East lose people. It is hard to understand why Russia, Siberia, Afghanistan, Nigeria, Angola and Namibia are net immigration 
areas. American and European computer programmers face stiff competition from highly educated, imported Indians and Chinese. Many Americans are upset Mexicans and others cross the borders to do jobs few Americans would dream of taking. Similar tensions are present in all labor importing areas.
Generally, the less developed areas close to the equator migrate north or south to more economically attractive areas such as Europe, Australia, Argentina and North America. In broad terms: Eastern Europe, Asia, Latin and Central America and Africa supply people to North America, Western Europe, Oceania and perhaps Russia. Legal US immigration is tightly regulated as are those of Canada, Australia and Europe.
Naturally, labor importers want highly qualified workers. Outside of the industrial world, the main sources of such skills are in India and China. More and more high tech Indians choose stay in India as places like Bangalore become very attractive compared to an aging Silicon Valley or a stuffy Europe. China’s internal growth requires their talents to stay at home rather than emigrate on a mass scale to Stuttgart, Nantes, Copenhagen, Zurich, Manchester or Hamburg – or for that matter, Chicago, Wichita, Toronto or San Diego. Migration of highly skilled labor is not truly critical. The current trend of outsourcing, not migrating, high tech jobs will likely prevail.
The high tech workers in strong demand cannot be supplied from the poor countries. Instead, these 
mainly equatorial countries have a huge surplus of unskilled labor. This is where we may face a major social issue as their populations continue to explode resulting in an ever growing unskilled labor surplus.
Most post-industrialized countries cannot accept massive inflows of a low-skill, possibly hostile labor force out of mainly Africa. Such an inflow invokes high costs for health care, social benefits, housing, schooling and numerous subsidies. Will social tensions be as bad or worse as they are today and have been in the past? Can the imported labor achieve the expected productivity? Assimilating “guest workers” requires real patience, sensitivity and foresight from both the host country and its people and the immigrants.
Consider the magnitude of the imbalance:
- Countries with surplus labor: 3 billion people. This includes most of the poorest countries.
- Countries more or less neutral on imported or exported labor: 2.8 billion people. Main countries are the fast growing countries of Asia.
- Countries clearly needing labor resources: 750 million people. This includes Western Europe and Australia and North America.
Say the surplus countries desire to export 5% of their population due to lack of domestic employment. That amounts to a 150 million laborer supply. Suppose the labor importers need to increase the labor supply by 5% of their population to reduce their labor shortage – that amounts to a 38 million demand.
In short: perhaps a 160 million labor supply, possibly a 38 million demand. Add the imbalance of skills available and skills wanted. It seems clear there will be a low end buyer’s market and a high end seller’s market. Very significant labor surpluses will continue in the less developed countries.
To make things even worse, Global Warming will force a migration northwards throughout the Northern Hemisphere and the reverse south of the equator simply because of a similar migration of food s
upplies and life supporting ecosystems including fresh water. Look at a map of Africa. Suppose the citizens of Congo, Nigeria, Gabon, Cameroon and Kenya are forced to migrate, say, north. Where is the next stop? It’s not likely to be inhospitable countries of Chad, Niger, Sudan or the Sahara desert. Maybe they will not be welcome in Arab states such as Libya, Algeria or Egypt which will have problems of their own. The next stop is Europe that may already be chockfull of imported labor, refugees and illegal immigrants.
Combine all these forces and you have a very volatile situation with a potential for massive social unrest, including wars. There are no easy solutions. What started out as a seemingly innocent difference in basic demographics with a somewhat higher population growth in poor countries suddenly is a potentially catastrophic issue. Will such a catastrophe happen? I certainly hope not. But the possibility is there and should be thought about.
USA, Mexicans and some Extremists
The importation of illegal Mexican labor is probably the most successful labor program ever. 
Unfortunately, it is viewed differently by a vocal segment of American citizens and its retarded government. The program is peaceful and subject to supply and demand. It carries real financial advantages. It is productive, flexible and non-union. What else can a Capitalist desire? So let’s flip/flop the logic and build a fence to keep them out. Let’s harass them, spending billions of dollars. Let’s force them to face deadly dangers. Let’s use them as shooting targets. But, by God, let’s not lower ourselves to do the kind of work they do for us.
In the US, gun toting vigilant red blooded Americans patrol the Southern border, “helping out”. Some US Congressmen hold quite radical views on how to deal with illegal or even legal immigrants. Building a fence a la the Berlin Wall (in reverse) or that in Israel is by no means the only suggestions. Organizations such as the Federation for American Immigration Reform (FAIR) and the Americans for Immigration Control people are not exactly in favor of immigration and stand ready for extreme measures.
This is by a country that is built from the ground by immigrants (not ignoring the contributions of the ingenious population that was almost exterminated). If the US cannot resolve no-brain immigration issues, how are countries less experienced expected to handle it?
You might also consider the importation by some countries of AMERICANS to do their d
irty work. Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and other regional kingdoms are the prime examples. To many Saudis, ordinary work is not compatible with their way of life. After all, who’s got the oil? Practically all labor (العمال المهاجرون) is imported from a variety of countries. Of course, there are no social tensions involved. Such tensions are outlawed and subject to stiff penalties. Forget about human rights, dating or having a drink. Accept living in specially designed ghettos. Please do not be female or, gasp, gay. Realize you are a dirty dog and an infidel of no value. Extend every courtesy to your masters although you will receive none in return. Of course the money is good. You may be able to send some home to your ailing mother in that little, backwards village in Omaha.
Now read that last paragraph again. Substitute a few names and you might understand the feelings of imported labor to ANY country a bit better. Immigration and an internationally mobile work force require sensitivity beyond any normal call of duty. How well do you think the possible forced mass migration of the future will work?
Realistic, Steady Canada
Like the US, the people of Canada are mostly made up by immigrants. Here are comments on a very recent report the 2006 Census from Statistics Canada:
- Two-thirds of Canada’s population growth over the past five years was fueled by immigrants. The country will become 100 per cent dependent on immigration for growth by 2030, when the peak of the baby boomers born in the 1950s and early ‘60s reach the end of their life spans.
- Thank immigration for Canada’s relatively robust growth. An average 240,000 newcomers per year more than compensated for the country’s flat fertility rate of 1.5 compared to the 2.1 required to maintain a flat population. Canada can weather the demographic storm if it successfully integrates its huge migrant population.
- “We’re heading towards a point where immigration will be the only source of growth in Canada”, according to Laurent Martel, a Statistics Canada analyst. “You’re going to see an increase in the number of deaths in Canada and the number of deaths will exceed the number of births — so natural increase will become negative”, he continued.
- A demographic squeeze faces much of the developed world. Among G8 countries, only the U.S. at 5.0 per cent approaches Canada’s growth rate. France grew 3.1 per cent, Britain 1.9 per cent, Japan near zero and Russia shrank 2.4 per cent over the same five-year period.
- Canada’s net migration, per capita, is among the highest in the world or 6.5 migrants per 1,000 populations. Australia, another immigration juggernaut, allows 6.2 migrants per 1,000. USA lets in 4.4 immigrants per 1000 but its fertility rate is 25% higher than Canada’s.
Canada recognizes the issues of immigration but the path is not a simple one:
- Candidate Christian Raymond for the ADQ in the Quebec provincial election was dumped by his party on the weekend after telling a weekly newspaper that native Quebecers need to “boost their birth rate, otherwise the ethnics will swamp us. If they [the ethnics] don’t want to conform, they can just go back home. I say to them: You’re not at home here, you’re visiting.”
- Michael Bloom, a vice-president with the Conference Board of Canada, says Canada’s policy makers need to get their heads around a potentially explosive trend, both economically and socially. “We have not strategically thought through how we should manage our largest single source of population for net growth,” Bloom said in an interview.
- For a country like Canada, the political vacuum is curious. Bloom continued: “It is a charged atmosphere in which competing interest groups look with suspicion on the motivations of policy makers. They’re looking for a challenge almost the moment anybody says anything. I think that’s the environment we have right now. So creating a safe context for discussing the issues without people immediately assuming you have a hidden agenda is the challenge. And I’m not sure how to resolve that challenge.”
Best of luck to Canada, the probably sanest and most peaceful nation on earth, eh? So you may think but consider the following list of no less than ten riots in 159 years resulting in 5 deaths and a few hundred injuries. In the US, there were 139 riots in 219 years which boils down to about ten times as many as in Canada. My goodness, no less than 40% of the Canadian riots involved either the Quebecois or ice hockey (or both). Peace was generally restored quickly:
The Stony Monday Riot of 1849 (No known injuries. Peace was quickly restored), the Conscription Crisis of 1917 (them 
Quebecois making trouble as usual but no known injuries, peace was quickly restored), Bloody Saturday of 1919 (Labor union troubles resulting in 2 deaths and 30 injured. Peace was restored), the Christie Pits Race Riots of 1933 (Fascist/Racist issue. One person charged for carrying a lead pipe), the Regina Riot of 1935 (Depression condition issues. 2 killed and hundreds of injuries), The Richard Riot of 1955 (Suspension of hockey star, them Quebecois making trouble as usual, 37 injuries), the Sir George Williams Computer Riot of 1969 (Student revolt, several million computer punch cards dumped on street are the only known casualties. Peace was restored), the 1969 Murray-Hill Riot (them Quebecois making trouble as usual: Disgruntled taxi drivers. One dead), the 1994 Stanley Cup Riot (Canucks lost to the Rangers, some 200 injuries) and, finally, the 2001 Quebec City Summit of the America’s Riot (Trade negotiations, anti-globalization demonstrations, some injuries).
Settling in any province except Quebec and staying away from hockey games should ensure the safety of most immigrants, eh?
Struggles of Europe and Others
Here is the current German and French view on labor shortages. Source: NYT 3/10/2007.
Ms. Corinne Margot, the director of human resources for Soitech, a fast-growing French manufacturer of semiconductors, is reaching deep into her bag of tricks to find new employees. She is bringing in people from outside France — indeed, outside Europe — to plug the gaps.
The scarcity of qualified labor is already hitting the bottom lines in the major economies, and companies like Soitech seem sure to follow in the footsteps of companies that have been forced to forsake sales opportunities.
Moving jobs offshore is another alternative. The SMS Group has found itself weighing whether to move parts of the business to its operations in China, India, the United States and Brazil.
Klaus Kleinfeld, chief executive of Siemens, said that it had 2,500 positions open in Germany alone. Over the last year, the shortage has become acute enough that Siemens has begun bringing employees out of retirement to work on specific projects. “Our growth rate is now mostly limited by our human resources capacity,” Mr. Kleinfeld said.
Recruiting more people from outside Europe is another persistent theme. At Soitech, there has been an explosion in the number of nationalities represented over the last few years, from a handful to at least 19 today. “We are beginning to recruit on an international market rather than a French market,” Ms. Margot, the personnel chief, said.
For recruiting departments around Europe, 2007 could be the worst year in memory. This cyclical upswing in Europe is accentuating labor bottlenecks. Sometimes the solution is higher salary and better benefits. But more often than not, companies have to find ways to work around a limited supply of qualified employees.
The article describes the difficulties of finding highly skilled engineers, mainly. It does not even mention to inflow of unskilled labor, legally or not. Here is a current example of what’s to come. 30,000 illegal immigrants from Senegal head to Spain and then the rest of Europe. This 2006 story is from Reuters via CNN:
Senegal said on Thursday [11/9 2006] it will introduce quotas allowing some 4,000 citizens to work in Spain over the next two years in an effort to stem a flow of illegal jobs seekers leaving the West African country.
Senegal has been at the center of a regional migration crisis this year in which thousands of young West Africans have attempted perilous ocean journeys in rickety boats to Spain’s Canary Islands looking for a better life in Europe.
More than 26,000 people, at least half of them Senegalese, have come ashore on the Spanish islands off the West African coast this year in an exodus that has triggered an increasingly emotional debate in Europe and Africa.
A special case of immigration is that of asylum seekers. It’s not a very significant issue in North America (since the end of the Vietnam War) but it is a critical question in Europe, especially with the EU attempting a common but controversial asylum policy of sorts. Here are a few quotes dealing with the issue of foreign “holding tanks” for asylum seekers:
“Buttiglione [Failed EC big shot-to-be] offered his support for a German proposal that resurrects the discredited idea of establishing centers to process asylum-seekers off-shore, this time in North African countries. What is the reason? “To prevent the mass exodus from swamping the EU,” he said.”
“Such asylum “processing centers,” a polite term for detention camps, would signal an about-face in Europe’s historic commitment to refugee protection. The centers would violate the individual’s right to seek asylum and shift responsibility for migrants and asylum-seekers to developing countries with scarce resources and poor human rights”
“The specifics of future [sic – never happened] commissioner Buttiglione’s proposal appear to be exceedingly bad. He argues that the “reception centers” in North Africa should be managed by the governments of the countries where such centers would be established. Putting poor and repressive governments in charge of EU asylum-seekers is a recipe for disaster. The prime example is Libya, a main transit point for African migrants and asylum-seekers on their way to southern Europe. Libya, which has neither ratified the Refugee Convention nor established national asylum procedures, already has an appalling migrant-protection record”
“Some of the agreed provisions raise serious issues under International Refugee and Human Rights Law and they may result in judicial action being taken against them “; “The removal of asylum policies…… and the scrutiny of international human rights monitoring bodies raise serious legal issues from a refugee protection point of view.”
If you think this sound a bit like a new wave of concentration camps, you share the concern with many Europeans. It certainly is not the right tone to strike for a continent that will need massive amounts of imported labor.
What will be the attitude of a sub-Sahara work force be towards the rich countries that turned a blind eye on or conducted the slave trade, exploited them as colonies, stole their raw materials, broke all promises of financial aid, let HIV go unchecked, ignored the genocides and the famines? Witness the fury of Muslims in the UK, Spain and African immigrants in France. The British are not pleased with Mideast immigrants blowing up the Tube. Neither are the Spaniards. The French experience with North African immigrants is rocky at best. Most European countries already have ghettos filled with immigrant workers and refugees. Each such area is explosive socially and definitely not pleasant.
The Netherlands, Belgium, Germany, Denmark, Sweden, the UK and, in particular, France have seen some very ugly riots involving immigrants and the domestic population, usually the police. Many of these clashes involve Muslim immigrants frustrated by perceived or real injustices. Australia has seen its share of immigrant riots as well as Australians rioting against immigrants. These tensions are a two way street
The Plight of Country X
Let’s take an example: Suppose European country X desires a GNP growth of 2.5% a year. Such a growth must be sourced by economic resources. Perhaps capital investment can make up 1% of that 
growth. That leaves 1.5% in required additional resources annually. Suppose the original, domestic labor force was 25 million workers. Further speculate this pool is declining at a rate of 1% per year due to aging and a low birth rate. That means we somehow have to find 2.5% additional skilled labor since no other resource is available. But we can only find unskilled labor that is a net of 2% less productive than the existing, highly trained labor force. Now we need 4.5% new laborers annually from a base of 25 million.
Assume this continues unabated for 20 years. That means the country imported 35 million laborers – a number I’m sure no one in country X would be happy with. The new labor force would exceed the original one by 10 million. The original work force of 25 million natives is now down to about 20 million if all works well and all the numbers above are plausible.
First, the foreign workers now make up 2/3 of the work force. Second, the work force is more than twice as large due the poor productivity. Suppose something goes wrong in this idyllic scheme of things. Consider, for instance the cost of housing and other infrastructure required by the 35 million “guest workers” (“Gastarbeiter” as the Germans call it or “travailleurs immigrés” in French). Suppose some marvelous capital investment temporarily forced the layoff of 1 million of the labor force. Or perhaps the business cycle turned down. Or Country Y with even cheaper, imported labor starts a price war. Possibly the whole bloody system falls apart. It’s not hard to see the riots explode. It’s even easier to see the racial tensions boil over into real ugliness.
Also consider that the country X had maybe 50 million citizens at the beginning of these games. After 20 years of the scenario above, the population would have swelled to about 80 million. 35
million of that, or 44%, would be the immigrant “guest workers”. That is quite a power block, putting a strain on everything from old to new.
This, of course is just playing with some rough numbers – all of which are disputable. Even worse, I extrapolated these numbers 20 years into the future and came up with an absurd outlook that will not happen – no country could afford a scenario like this. It’s far more likely that GNP growth will be lower, the original work force working longer and some, but not as high, import of labor would occur. That doesn’t resolve the excess of labor in the poor countries. The imbalance remains.
Let the Money Flow
There is an alternative to the almost certain explosiveness of the massive importation of labor to a post industrial country. That is to move the production of goods and perhaps even services to the country with excess labor. After all, most industrial countries are happily doing that right now. The US and 
others have chased low wages from Cuba to Mexico to Japan to Korea to Taiwan to Hong Kong to Singapore to the Philippines to Malaysia to Indonesia to Vietnam to China to India. No doubt Africa is next.
Not only are wages low, but the costs of taken-for-granted Western standards are usually relaxed. Feel free to pollute away, use child labor and to ignore social responsibility. There is no need to worry about human rights.
You also need to consider risks. Take Cuba and its nationalization of American properties in the 1950s. No alert Capitalist wants to experience that again. Hence, invest as little as possible and be ready to bolt at a moment’s notice.
Don’t fret about the jobs exported from the old country. A jolt now and then is good for them domestic workers. Those ghost towns make good movie backdrops. Former loggers make great 
nurses. Ex-textile workers are good at picking cotton or growing tobacco. Of course they are.
The trouble is that those low wages never stay low. Move on as soon as cost is higher than the next place. Leave nothing behind. If lucky, one country after another prices itself out of the slave wage market and end up with a great infrastructure and skilled work force paid for by the exploiting foreigner. Or they end up with nothing. Some win, some lose.
Sarcasm aside, foreign investment in less developed countries has always been controversial, high risk and ethically questionable. Is there a reason to believe that will change? Can ruthless capitalism work with endless corruption to create sustained growth with steady and fair employment? Hmm, that’ll be the day.
Aria for the Polar Bears
Here is another, last little story about real global warming in line with my odes, ballads, songs, hymns and the like. This one is called “Aria for the Polar Bear” (compiled from many sources): 
U.S. President George W. Bush’s administration moved away from its steadfast refusal to recognize the effects of global warming, proposing to protect polar bears, whose habitat is threatened by the rapid melting of Arctic sea ice. U.S. Interior Secretary Dirk Kempthorne announced that polar bears should be listed as “threatened” under the Endangered Species Act, initiating a review that is expected to take a year.
Three conservation groups earlier filed a lawsuit against the Department of the Interior, in an effort to protect the polar bear from the effects of global warming. In return for these groups dropping their effort to force the Bush administration to grant polar bears “threatened” status under the ESA, the administration agreed to commence a rulemaking to list the bears.
Now, the government may have to consider tougher measures to clean up the air because scientists believe carbon dioxide emissions cause global warming. Bush administration officials, however, indicated there would be no new curbs on oil drilling in Alaska or limits on greenhouse-gas emissions.
Polar bears have dwindled in numbers and are in a serious fight for survival due to Arctic ice melt. In Canada’s western Hudson Bay, the population of polar bears has already declined 22 percent. Global warming cause an earlier summer melt of the ice, giving
polar bears less time to hunt for seals and build up fat reserves. There is evidence of weight loss, reduced cub survival and bears moving closer to human communities in their search for food.
Arctic ice coverage in recent years has been the lowest on record and studies have found polar bears to be smaller and suffering from lack of food. Some have drowned swimming vast distances of open water between ice floes and far fewer cubs are surviving the first months of life, studies show.
Polar bears have survived previous Arctic warming periods, including the last warm stretch between ice ages some 130,000 years ago. Some climate experts project that nothing in the species’ history is likely to match the pace and extent of warming and ice retreats. That is assuming emissions in this century, and beyond, of heat-trapping gases continue unabated. International climate scientists predict unless global warming is stemmed, polar bears will be extinct by the end of the century.
Still, Kempthorne said an endangered species listing could not be used to trigger new limits to greenhouse-gas emissions. “That whole argument of climate change is beyond the scope of the Endangered Species Act,” he said.
Yet, the true dilemma is how to protect polar bears. Fisheries of endangered species may be curtailed. Logging is prohibited in habitats of endangered species such as the spotted owl. Whaling is largely eliminated. But how does a government protect the habitat of polar bears when Global Warming is the obvious culprit – an issue George W. Bush refuses to recognize? Maybe George will finally grasp that Global Warming is just not going away.
In the ironic, aka tragic, department, Canada, the US, Greenland and Russia permit indigenous people to hunt polar bears as part of their cultural heritage. In 2005, the Canadian quota was 518 bears, of which 50 were allocated to recreational hunters.
The plight of the ice bears is just another little piece of the puzzle. They live far away from most of us. Few have seen one in its natural habitat. Not many care about the breakup of the Northern ice packs. As we hear about it, our feet remain dry. Why care about all that much about something so far away. But here is the unfortunate inconvenience: No matter what we do, temperatures will continue to rise for years. These small stories, odes, hymns, ballads, what have you, won’t be so small for long. You will notice, if not now, very soon.
Terrifyingly Scary Outlooks
Many of these studies agree on one aspect of their disasters, whether running out of raw materials, the disappearance of food sources, racial riots from immigration or all kinds of threats from Global Warming. There will be horrific consequences to civilization once such bad things happen. We are not dealing with trivial stuff. Let’s look at a few samples of the horrors apparently awaiting us:
- The economies crash. Supply of goods dwindles. Support programs, welfare stop. Safety programs die. The military, police and National Guard disband. Border control goes AWOL. Financial markets and banks disappear in the night. Industrial production stops. Hospitals close. Air, train and bus transportation grinds to a halt. Ports close. Resources such as oil disappear. Unemployment becomes sky high. Forest fires are out of control. Other fires devastate cities and towns.
- Food and drinking water runs out. Arable acreage is lost with no fertilizers or water. Crops decline rapidly. Live stocks starve to death. Drinking water becomes treated with sewage and salt water. Extinction of species accelerates. Food shortages quickly develop into famines. Coastal areas may be under water.
- Health becomes critical. Starvation becomes the order of the day. Malnutrition kills. Lack of sewage control spreads disease. Infant mortality skyrockets. HIV, fevers and infectious diseases explode as no medical help is available. Life expectancy declines.
- Social fabric breaks down. Crime and corruption prevails. Warfare – local, civil, nation to nation and eventually world wide becomes yet another threat to civilization. When will the first nuke go off? Mass migration occurs in search for food, water and shelter, leading to even more violence. The justice system is gone with local tribunals handing out death sentences left and right.
Is it sensationalism? Of course it is. Could it happen? It might just be a question of time, hopefully a long time. Note, though, that the sagas above are not created by unscrupulous news rags. They are forecasted by reputable scientists. Could any national guard, military, government, nation, economic union or international authority deal with even 10% of the above? Hell no.
disaster Outlooks UN Style
This section is a partial reprint of my “The Bleakest of Outlooks” post of March 2007.
The UN will publish a series of four major reports on Global Warming in 2007. A summary of first report is already out, dealing with updates to current Global Warming trends. The second summary report is due in April of 2007 covering the impacts on Earth of Global Warming. The third and forth summary reports and the full reports are due later this year.
I covered the first summary report of February 2007 in my “Politics, Scandals, Mass Committees” post. This first IPCC report really did the easy part, simply updating data and recent research. Even so, it created major attention, perhaps mostly in the European EU powers. The EU is now in the process of creating much more stringent limits on their internal greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. I discussed the impact of this proposal, now approved by the EU, in my previous “Sauerkraut” post. The current post you are reading contains some updates to the EU plan.
Here are some conclusions known to be in the current pre-release of the April report, according to a Seth Borenstein AP article and numerous similar reports:
Geography, Areas and Life Styles
- The effects of Global Warming are happening far faster than believed earlier. Climate changes are now impacting physical and biological systems on every continent. Global Warming will affect everyone’s lives, in particular the lives of the poorest. Life styles across the world will change, mostly for the worse.
- Africa and Asia will be hit the hardest followed by small island communities. On a relative basis, North America, Europe and Australia face the least impacts. Yet, hurricanes and wildfires already cause major disruptions to North American social, cultural and biological ecosystems. Australia is experiencing a drought partly blamed on Global Warming.
Agriculture, Starvation and Forestry
- The agriculture sector will face major upheavals as their ecosystems move north (south in the Southern Hemisphere) and existing farm land cannot follow. The forest sector faces the same issue.
- The forestry sector will see temporary improvements due to a longer growing season. It will face major upheavals later as its ecosystems move north (south in the Southern Hemisphere) and existing forests cannot follow.
- There will be temporary relief in some agricultural areas, such as soybeans and rice production in Latin America, due to longer growing seasons. Later, 200-600 million people will suffer starvation as agricultural ecosystems are destroyed.
Health and Fresh Water
- Health issues will result in higher death rates. Malnutrition, diarrhea, malaria and dengue fever will grow dramatically. Human allergies are mushrooming due to increased pollens. Smog in the US will cause severe health hazards.
- Hundreds of millions of Africans, tens of millions of Latin Americans and more than a billion of Asians will lack sufficient fresh water.
Ecosystems and Extinctions
- We are truly standing at the edge of mass extinction. Species’ habits and habitants are changing rapidly. Half of Europe’s spaces are vulnerable to extinction.
- Polar bears will only be found in zoos, their northern habitat melted into oblivion. Other polar animals will follow into extinction. Half of Europe’s species are threatened. Pests such as fire ants will thrive.
Oceans, Flooding, Coasts, Arctic and Ice
- Oceans and coastal ecosystems face the most damages. Wetlands will be lost. 100 million people may be flooded out of their lands because of rising sea levels. Coastal flooding might eliminate millions of homes.
- Coral reefs are killed by bleaching. The Great Barrier Reef could become functionally extinct in less than 20 years.
- Transportation, e.g. the Northwest Passage, will “improve” in Arctic regions. This alone may lead to major ecological problems as newly accessible areas are exploited.
- Alpine glaciers in Europe and elsewhere will disappear. Greenland ice sheets decline. The North Pole is no longer under a solid ice pack in the summer.
The report offers some hope if nations slow and then reduce their greenhouse gas emissions, but it notes that what’s happening now isn’t encouraging. The Report states: Many, but not all, of those effects can be prevented if within a generation the world slows down its emissions of carbon dioxide and if the level of greenhouse gases sticking around in the atmosphere stabilizes. If that’s the case, the report says “most major impacts on human welfare would be avoided; but some major impacts on ecosystems are likely to occur.
I truly object to the statement that “those effects can be prevented if within a generation the world slows down its emissions”. I believe reductions in emissions must start very soon, or within a few years, for mankind to stand a reasonable chance of survival. Waiting a generation will not do it.
Next and Previous
Here is a summary of the eight posts in the essay. Navigation links are located just below the summary.
GlobalWarming:1 discusses why Global Warming happened, who and what causes it, ending up with a list of villains. It did not go into the consequences of Global Warming. There was no discussion of impacts on the oceans, the Arctic, Greenland, El Nino, ecosystems, the weather, tundra and ice packs. The Kyoto Protocol or the Stern reports or other Global Warming topics were not covered. That is yet to come.
GlobalWarming:2 covers two main subjects. The UN provides a real mixed bag of positive and negative influences on the fight against Global Warming. The positive is that they try, have some credibility and many resources. The negative is that they fail. The current versions of the Kyoto Protocol and its associated reports do not reduce emissions. The CER system causes more harm than good. Solutions exist but are not acted on. Industrial strategies and national policies do little to reduce Global Warming – in fact, the opposite is often true in spite of rhetorical lip service.
Global Warming:3 examines the basic root cause of our problem: rising temperatures. Is the increase real and does it matter? Is it natural or caused by man? Are the temperatures unusual compared to history? Do GHGs actually cause the increase? What can past temperature variations tell us about what we face today? Can you even trust the basic data and analysis of temperatures? The post answers those and other questions in exuberant detail.
GlobalWarming:4notes that Global Warming is not the first disaster forecast ever done, published and hyped. There were many in the past and as a rule they failed. The disaster in question simply did not happen because extending some historical trend into the future does not work – trends change. So the question is – why is this particular doom and gloom outlook right? What is different this time? As you will see, plenty is different.
The current GlobalWarming:5 reviews the role and issues of population growth. This is a vital issue for future emissions as shown in GlobalWarming:1. Historically over the past 250 years, the explosive growth in populations explains two thirds of the increase in GHG emissions. The rise in personal carbon use must be reversed as must other issues related to unbalanced growth in populations.
GlobalWarming:6 summarizes some important and a few not so important opinions on Global Warming. Global Warming is a battle ground, galvanizing the left against the right, neo conservatists against liberals, the sane against those not quite sane, the religious right against evangelists, politicians against constituents, reactionaries against activists, bloggers against bloggers, late show hosts against ratings, journalists against circulations, spokespersons against skeptics and, not least, scientists against scientists. This post contains a small sample of the rare truth, accusations, biases, opinions and propaganda thrown left and right, up and down.
GlobalWarming:7 is perhaps the meat of this series. It gets into the details of what is happening right now in the some 25 different real life areas. The true impacts of Global Warming range from ocean bottoms to mountain tops, from oil fields to highways, from tundra to tropics and from farm fields to smoke stacks. These items are not forecasts, assumptions or opinions but verifiable hard facts. The picture is indicative of your, and my, future. The earthly signs get worse by the day.
GlobalWarming:8 paints three scenarios (not forecasts) of what might happen in the future. There are pessimistic, optimistic and middle of the road pictures. The three scenarios use simple, common sense assumptions, very different from the elaborate, multi million $ systems enjoyed by the UN, the Stern Report, EPA and others. The big systems rely on myriads of assumptions as input, many of which aren’t really known and/or subject to lots of complexity. I favor the KISS approach.
I’m by no means competing with the “big” studies or the smart people putting them together. I used to be a forecasting guru working for the UN, the World Bank, FAO, OECD, the EU and many Fortune 500 companies. I guess I have a right to an opinion. No one is required to consider my views.
I am completely nonaffiliated. No political party enjoys (or wants) my support. I have no axe to grind. I receive no monetary compensations, grants or sponsorships. There are no PayPal buttons on these pages. I have no obligations to fulfill. Office politics do not thrive around here. I promote no agendas except my own – the survival of us all. Occasionally, I put up some of the photos from my portfolios and my photo business.
GlobalWarming:5-8 will follow together with other commentaries and follow ups. Hang in there. The links below help you navigate this monster essay. It’s all quite important to your health.
| GW:1 | GW:2 | GW:3 | GW:4 | GW:5 | GW:6 | GW:7 | GW:8 |
|---|
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Global Warming – Quick News #1
March 14, 2007
The UK is getting real about Global Warming by outlining binding legislation to cut carbon dioxide emissions by 60% by 2050. The Bill also sets targets of 26-32% cuts by 2020. Parts of the opposition favor 80% cuts, or even 90%. Government assistance will enable insulation of 8 million homes over the next ten years. UK is on track to meet all Kyoto Protocol goals. Government officials stressed the UK’s leadership in the War on Global Warming with a clear eye towards the lack of leadership or action from the US.
Simultaneously, The UK enters direct cooperation with California, bypassing the inertia of George W. Bush. Arnold Schwarzenegger, Californian maverick, called Tony Blair an action hero for inspiring the introduction of a law committing California to an 80% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050. Mr. Schwarzenegger said: “It is very clear the Prime Minister has been a great inspiration to many, many countries all over the world… I think he is a pioneer, because he has had the guts to sign the Kyoto treaty and to show to the world that you can protect the environment and protect the economy at the same time.”
Have the Blair or California Governments gone insane? Won’t this madness bankrupt the whole world (or the US as Mr. Bush claims without proof)? Of course not, the UK hopes to make big money on its leadership. They have key parts of the technology to make reductions of this magnitude possible. So do others, including the EU, US and California in particular. If you view these emission reduction plans as some form of misbegotten charity, you are very much on the wrong track. Incidentally, California is not the only state bypassing Bush to enter overseas cooperation and to pursue independent Global Warming and energy policies.
And as I covered in the post “Sauerkraut, Bourgogne, Bangers“, the EU is continuing its path towards 20% emission reductions by 2020. An EU summit in early March 2007 approved the original proposal. More leaks of the upcoming April IPCC report about the consequences of Global Warming led to my post “The Bleakest Outlook Yet”. Optimistic those UN folks are not. Some of you might enjoy my take on Ann Coulter ” To Ann Coulter” after she used the Faggot word referring to John Edwards, who, by the way, is looking to define himself as a Global Warming advocate. Also recently published, the main post “Just Too Many Of You” deals with a variety of issues, most related to how Global Warming relates to populations or, more precisely, you and me.
If the world follows the initiatives of the EU, the UK and California, then the issue of Global Warming will be resolved in our – mankind’s – favor. If, on the other hand, the US, China, India, Indonesia and Brazil continues to screw the world, then we face extinction.
The Skeptics’ favorite TV show “The Great Global Warming Swindle” lost all credibility after journalists and others proved beyond any doubt that the show knowingly presented false data. That included using data sources decenniums out of date, then falsifying “updates” to make it look like the data was recent. Of course, these fantasy (to use a kind word) “updates” were tailored to support the show’s claims. Actual and correct data was easily available but would not support the show’s conclusions, thus ignored by the producers in favor of their own famously fraudulent version.
Sir John Houghton, the former head of the Met Office who chairs the Scientific Assessment Working Group of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), said: “Last Thursday’s programme purported to debunk the science of Global Warming describing it as ‘lies’ and an invention of hundreds of scientists around the world, who have conspired to mislead governments, and the general public. The material presented was a mixture of truth, half truth and falsehood put together with the sole purpose of discrediting the science of global warming as presented by the main world community of climate scientists and by the IPCC.” Sir John continues to thoroughly expose the show’s false claims.
This is the first issue of “Quick News” that will filter the mass of news to pull out what is actually important and, occasionally, what is not. This little service may or may not become permanent, depending on you guys. Please feel free to provide feedback!
Thanks, Karl
Global Warming – The Bleakest Outlook Yet
March 12, 2007
Starvation. Drought. Flooding. Lack of fresh water. Malaria and dengue fever. Extinction. Malnutrition. Dead coral reefs. Melted glaciers and ice packs. Those are some of the chilling elements of our future according to a UN IPCC report to be released in April of 2007. It sure is a bleak outlook.
I’ll take a closer look at those dire outlooks, then cover a few recent events in the Global Warming world. Finally, I’ll provide a preview to my next major post about Global Warming.
The 2007 UN IPCC Reports
The UN will publish a series of four major reports on Global Warming in 2007. A summary of first report is already out, dealing with updates to current Global Warming trends. The second summary report is due in April of 2007 covering the impacts on Earth of Global Warming. The third and forth summary reports and the full reports are due later this year.
I covered the first summary report of February 2007 in my “Politics, Scandals, Mass Committees” post. This first IPCC report really did the easy part, simply updating data and recent research. Even so, it created major attention, perhaps mostly in the European EU powers. The EU is now in the process of creating much more stringent limits on their internal greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. I discussed the impact of this proposal, now approved by the EU, in my previous “Sauerkraut” post. The current post you are reading contains some updates to the EU plan.
Here is a list of my previous Global Warming posts. There are many more in the pipeline, including one on the impact of populations to be released in a few days:
- GlobalWarming:1 – Culprits, Scoundrels and Villains
- GlobalWarming:2 – Politics, Scandals, Mass Committees
- GlobalWarming:3 – Few Like It Hot
- GlobalWarming:Europe – Sauerkraut, Bourgogne, Bangers
- GlobalWarming:4 – Disastrous Disaster Forecasts
- GlobalWarming:Coulter – To Ann Coulter
In a month (April 2007), a most likely quite controversial summary report “Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability” is due, dealing with what Global Warming means to Earth, you and me. Although not yet final or published, mush of the current thinking has leaked. This post covers what is known and likely to be included in the April 2007 summary.
The April 2007 UN IPCC Summary Report Preview
This preview does not guarantee anything about the content of the final report. UN reports require a broad agreement through extensive reviews which waters down conclusions and recommendations to the least common denominator. The April Report is currently in that review process. Scientific findings are balanced against national political agendas of well over a hundred nations and against the biases of thousands of scientists.
In spite of their shortcomings , the IPCC reports carry sufficient weight to attract the attentions of a worldwide press, thousands of pro and con bloggers, Skeptics, Deniers, fascists such as Ann Coulter and more importantly, a few politicians. The austerity of the first report was a contributory factor in passing an EU resolution requiring EU countries to reduce emissions by 20% and increase renewable energy sources to 20% of the total demand.
One scientist: “This is the story. This is the whole play. This is how it’s going to affect people. The science is one thing. This is how it affects me, you and the person next door.”
Another comment: Global warming soon will “affect everyone’s life . . . it’s the poor sectors that will be most affected,”
Here are some conclusions known to be in the current pre-release of the April report, according to a Seth Borenstein AP article and numerous similar reports:
Geography, Areas and Life Styles
- The effects of Global Warming are happening far faster than believed earlier. Climate changes are now impacting physical and biological systems on every continent. Global Warming will affect everyone’s lives, in particular the lives of the poorest. Life styles across the world will change, mostly for the worse.
- Africa and Asia will be hit the hardest followed by small island communities. On a relative basis, North America, Europe and Australia face the least impacts. Yet, hurricanes and wildfires already cause major disruptions to North American social, cultural and biological ecosystems. Australia is experiencing a drought partly blamed on Global Warming.
Agriculture, Starvation and Forestry
- The agriculture sector will face major upheavals as their ecosystems move north (south in the Southern Hemisphere) and existing farm land cannot follow. The forest sector faces the same issue.
- The forestry sector will see temporary improvements due to a longer growing season. It will face major upheavals later as its ecosystems move north (south in the Southern Hemisphere) and existing forests cannot follow.
- There will be temporary relief in some agricultural areas, such as soybeans and rice production in Latin America, due to longer growing seasons. Later, 200-600 million people will suffer starvation as agricultural ecosystems are destroyed.
Health and Fresh Water
- Health issues will result in higher death rates. Malnutrition, diarrhea, malaria and dengue fever will grow dramatically. Human allergies are mushrooming due to increased pollens. Smog in the US will cause severe health hazards.
- Hundreds of millions of Africans, tens of millions of Latin Americans and more than a billion of Asians will lack sufficient fresh water.
Ecosystems and Extinctions
- We are truly standing at the edge of mass extinction. Species’ habits and habitants are changing rapidly. Half of Europe’s spaces are vulnerable to extinction.
- Polar bears will only be found in zoos, their northern habitat melted into oblivion. Other polar animals will follow into extinction. Half of Europe’s species are threatened. Pests such as fire ants will thrive.
Oceans, Flooding, Coasts, Arctic and Ice
- Oceans and coastal ecosystems face the most damages. Wetlands will be lost. 100 million people may be flooded out of their lands because of rising sea levels. Coastal flooding might eliminate millions of homes.
- Coral reefs are killed by bleaching. The Great Barrier Reef could become functionally extinct in less than 20 years.
- Transportation, e.g. the Northwest Passage, will “improve” in Arctic regions. This alone may lead to major ecological problems as newly accessible areas are exploited.
- Alpine glaciers in Europe and elsewhere will disappear. Greenland ice sheets decline. The North Pole is no longer under a solid ice pack in the summer.
The report offers some hope if nations slow and then reduce their greenhouse gas emissions, but it notes that what’s happening now isn’t encouraging. The Report states: Many, but not all, of those effects can be prevented if within a generation the world slows down its emissions of carbon dioxide and if the level of greenhouse gases sticking around in the atmosphere stabilizes. If that’s the case, the report says “most major impacts on human welfare would be avoided; but some major impacts on ecosystems are likely to occur.
I truly object to the statement that “those effects can be prevented if within a generation the world slows down its emissions”. I believe reductions in emissions must start very soon, or within a few years, for mankind to stand a reasonable chance of survival. Waiting a generation will not do it.
My previous and upcoming posts deal with all of these issues, and many more, in great detail.
Other recent comments about Global Warming
Global Warming is catching enormous amounts of publicity these days. Here is a very brief update of what people think as seen by the press.
EU Pursuing Drastic Global Warming Actions
My post GlobalWarming:Europe – Sauerkraut, Bourgogne, Bangers discussed a recent European Union proposal to reduce carbon gas emissions in a quite drastic manner. March 8, 2007, this proposal was approved by an EU Summit. Here are a few comments:
- European Union leaders agreed to fight climate change with more windmills, solar panels, nuclear power and efficient light bulbs. The plan goes beyond the 35-nation Kyoto Protocol in setting targets for cutting emissions of greenhouse gases. The deal does not yet include an enforcement mechanism.
- “We assume leadership with this unilateral reduction,” said French President Jacques Chirac. “This is part of the great moments of European history.”
- German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who holds both the presidency of the EU and the Group of Eight industrialized nations, will present the plans to President Bush and other G-8 leaders at a summit in June. Merkel challenged the rest of the world to follow the EU, saying there still was time to “avoid what could well be a human calamity” caused by an overheated planet.
- Merkel continued: “We are not saying they should throw out all bulbs in their house today, but everybody should start thinking about what’s in the shops”; “Most of the bulbs in my flat are energy-saving bulbs, but they’re not quite bright enough, so sometimes when I’m looking for something that’s dropped on the carpet, I have a bit of a problem.”
- The major business lobbying group BusinessEurope complained to Merkel this week about the energy targets and said it was “a step into the unknown” because no one has ever assessed the impact on European companies.
- The nations are divided over the role of nuclear energy. At French insistence, the summit agreement noted the role atomic energy could play in replacing coal- or oil-fired power plants.
- Friends of the Earth called the mention of nuclear energy in the final statement “appalling”; “Nuclear energy is too expensive. Nations should invest more cleverly in developing other energy sources,” said Jan Kowalzig, a campaigner with Friends of the Earth.
There is nothing wrong with this quite ambitious plan except it will not make much of a difference by itself. The EU may be the largest trading and political union on earth but their emissions are not large enough that even a 20% reduction will materially change the impact of Global Warming. There is no way Global Warming is defeated unless the US, China and India jumps on the band wagon.
If, on the other hand, the rest of the world follows the EU lead, then the problem of Global Warming is solved. I discussed these possible outcomes in my previous European post. Check it out.
The Plight of Skeptics
Here is from a UK Telegraph newspaper report 3/11/2007, proposing Skeptics of Global Warming are ill treated:
- Scientists who questioned mankind’s impact on climate change have received death threats and claim to have been shunned by the scientific community.
- Timothy Ball, a former climatology professor at the University of Winnipeg in Canada, has received five deaths threats. “I can tolerate being called a skeptic because all scientists should be skeptics, but then they started calling us deniers, with all the connotations of the Holocaust. That is an obscenity. It has got really nasty and personal.”
- Richard Lindzen, the professor of Atmospheric Science at Massachusetts Institute of Technology said: “Scientists who dissent from the alarmism have seen their funds disappear, their work derided, and themselves labeled as industry stooges. Consequently, lies about climate change gain credence even when they fly in the face of the science.”
- Dr Myles Allen, from Oxford University, agreed: “The Green movement has hijacked the issue of climate change. It is ludicrous to suggest the only way to deal with the problem is to start micro managing everyone, which is what environmentalists seem to want to do.”
- Nigel Calder, a former editor of New Scientist, said: “Governments are trying to achieve unanimity by stifling any scientist who disagrees. Einstein could not have got funding under the present system.”
Making death threats certainly crosses the border into terrorist camps by whoever made them. The trouble I have with all Skeptics is their lack of documented facts to support their positions. I’m not really concerned with who or what is hijacking grants and stifling views. It seems to me that no Skeptic views are stifled – Professor Ball is more widely published than most “pro-Global Warmers”. How come the article only deals with perceived personal slights rather than the actual issue of Global Warming?
Ann Coulter, another Skeptic, does not share Professor Ball’s concerns about name calling. Follow this link to her comments on Global Warming and various other issues.
And the Troubles of Believers
James C. Dobson, the founder of Focus on the Family, and two dozen other conservative Christian leaders, including Gary L. Bauer, Tony Perkins and Paul M. Weyrich, denounced the association’s vice president, the Rev. Richard Cizik, for urging attention to global warming:
- Cizik and others are using the global warming controversy to shift the emphasis away from the great moral issues of our time, such as abortion and same-sex marriage.
- Cizik cannot be trusted to articulate the views of American evangelicals on environmental issues, then we respectfully suggest that he be encouraged to resign his position with the NAE [National Association of Evangelists].
It appears the NAE board decided to ignore the concerns of Mr. Dobson et al. Mr. Dobson, of course is a steadfast Republican right winger specializing in “family issues”. He chairs the “Focus on the Family” organization that supports school prayer and corporal punishment, a truly mind boggling combination of subjects. NAE lobbies against and opposes abortion, homosexuality, pornography and pre-martial sexual activity. It provides advice for victims of rape or child abuse and on parenting difficulties; child adoption; husband/wife roles; family history and traditions; struggles with gambling, pornography, alcohol, and drugs.
Perhaps that is all good and well if that’s what you fancy. But I can’t seem to find anything indicating insights into Global Warming here. Aren’t evangelists allowed to express concerns about the future of mankind? Why is Global Warming a religious or political issue?
Global Warming and Too many People
Here is a brief preview of my next Global Warming post discussing the impact of increasing populations. This post is scheduled for release by Mid March 2007.
“With populations up 2,000% together with huge leaps in standards of living, many raw material reserves decline simply because we consume them. Earth is no bigger than a thousand years ago. Many oil, gas and coal fields are already silent, depleted and abandoned for ever. The capacity of air, oceans and biomass to store greenhouse gases is declining.”
“Growth in populations accounted for 2/3 of the growth in emissions. A technology factor makes up the remaining 1/3 of emissions.”
“There are limits to food productivity and farm lands, especially as Global Warming reduces arable acreage. Fresh water supplies are dwindling as glaciers disappear and too much is tapped. There is only so much coal and oil left in the ground. It takes 80 years to replace the tree cut down to print an Ann Coulter article. Too many of us labor in industries that do little to sustain life, such as – come to think of it – almost all industries.”
“Tragically, organizations such as EPA, CDC and numerous think tanks, universities and industries are quite aware of these problems yet do little to resolve them, perhaps to please a famously ignorant President. This ain’t rocket science. The solutions are well known.”
“The high tech workers in strong demand cannot be supplied from the poor countries. Instead, these mainly equatorial, poor countries have a huge surplus of unskilled labor. This is where we may face a major social issue as their populations continue to explode resulting in an ever growing unskilled labor surplus. To make things even worse, Global Warming will force a migration northwards throughout the Northern Hemisphere and the reverse south of the Equator simply because of a similar migration of food supplies and life supporting ecosystems including fresh water.”
“The Netherlands, Belgium, Germany, Denmark, Sweden, the UK and, in particular, France have already seen some very ugly riots involving immigrants and the domestic population, usually the police. Many of these clashes involve Muslim immigrants frustrated by perceived or real injustices. Australia has seen its share of immigrant riots as well as Australians rioting against immigrants. These tensions are a two way street.”
Thank you, Karl
Global Warming: To Ann Coulter
March 6, 2007
Hi Ann, did you know that just a few weeks ago, hyper liberal extremist Ellen Goodman of the Boston Globe compared Global Warming Deniers to Holocaust Deniers? Accusing upright Americans for such perfectly valid views is pretty chocking, wouldn’t you say? Name calling like that really has no place in a civilized fascist society, don’t you think?
Needless to say, right thinking journalists, bloggers and citizens let Ms. Goodman have it on no uncertain terms. I’m surprised if she still has a job. If indeed she by chance still works at the Globe, it’s just another example of the arrogant, liberal and elitist “press” showing its contempt for American Christian values. Perhaps you agree.
Of course, Ellen Goodman is not the only liberal terrorist out there, we have crazies such as Al Gore, Nancy Pelosi, Barbara Boxer, Barack Obama, Alec Baldwin, Michael Moore and, come to think of it, just about all them Democrats and even a few wishy-washy Republicans. They all have to go in the glorious fascist Utopia.
We really need to think about the future of fascist America. George Bush is getting a bit long in the tooth so who is next to carry the torch? I mean, apart from you, Ann. Jimmy Inhofe is just about the only one to be trusted in the new Senate of leftist lunacy. Perhaps there is room for David Duke, he seems trustworthy. James Dobson is great on family values. Of course, all the old boys at CNP stand ready for the crusade. And we all know there are plenty of closet fascists out there just waiting to come out.
I’m sure you are not familiar with my modest little essays on Global Warming, Ethics and Wars on Terror. But one of the features in those essays is what I call “mini-stories” or “Ballads, Odes, Songs”. The idea is to make these quite boring subjects a little more accessible to those foolish enough to tune in to such useless subjects.
Ann, your brave, hold-no-barrels offensive dedicated to the true American fascist values cannot but move every red blooded American Christian almost to tears. To help spread the message, I decided to dedicate one of my ballads to you personally. Of course, I cannot claim any of your talents. I hope I’ll get it right; it’s important to grasp the full picture of the fascist movement of America, After all, this is the policy of the future, as envisioned by so many.
Here is The Anthem of Ann Coulter, also dedicated to that American hero, Joe McCarthy, a man of great vision and unswerving dedication, sadly lacking monuments:
Anthem of Ann Coulter
On Anne Coulter herself
- I’m here, I’m not queer, and I’m not going away; Let’s say I go out every night, I meet a guy and have sex with him. Good for me. I’m not married; Originally, I was the only female with long blonde hair; now, they all have long blonde hair; I am emboldened by my looks to say things Republican men wouldn’t; I’m so pleased with my gender – we are not too bright; You want to be careful not to become just a blowhard.
- Christianity fuels everything I write. Being a Christian means that I am called upon to do battle against lies, injustice, cruelty, hypocrisy—you know, all the virtues in the church of liberalism; I’m a Christian first and a mean-spirited, bigoted conservative second, and don’t you ever forget it.
On Clinton et al
- [Clinton] masturbates in the sinks; Clinton is in love with the erect penis.; Bill Clinton “was a very good rapist”; It’s enough [to be impeached] for the president to be a pervert; If you don’t hate Clinton and the people who labored to keep him in office, you don’t love your country; We’re now at the point that it’s beyond whether or not this guy is a horny hick. I really think it’s a question of his mental stability. He really could be a lunatic. I think it is a rational question for Americans to ask whether their president is insane.
- [Clinton] had crack pipes on the White House Christmas tree; is a celebrated felon, a known felon, a pervert, liar and a felon, a criminal, a flimflam artist, a prominent criminal.
- I don’t know if [former U.S. President Bill Clinton is] gay. But [former U.S. Vice President] Al Gore – total fag. I was going to have a few comments on the other Democratic presidential candidate John Edward, but it turns out you have to go into rehab if you use the word “faggot”, so I — so kind of an impasse, can’t really talk about Edwards; C’mon, it was a joke. I would never insult gays by suggesting that they are like John Edwards. That would be mean.
On JFK and the rest
- JFK was — in theory — as ferocious an anti-communist as the great Joe McCarthy. But Kennedy was a Democrat and thus an utter incompetent when it came to execution. (Johnson is not your strongest case. He had all of JFK’s incompetence without the good heart.)
- This is as we have come to expect from a [Kennedy] family of heroin addicts, statutory rapists, convicted and un convicted female-killers, cheaters, bootleggers and dissolute drunks known as “Camelot.” Why would anyone want such people as their “good friends”?”
On Dick Cheney
- Cheney is my ideal man. Because he’s solid. He’s funny. He’s very handsome. He was a football player. People don’t think about him as the glamour type because he’s a serious person, he wears glasses and he’s lost his hair. But he’s a very handsome man. And you cannot imagine him losing his temper, which I find extremely sexy. Men who get upset and lose their tempers and claim to be sensitive males: talk about girly boys. No, there’s a reason hurricanes are named after women and homosexual men, it’s one of our little methods of social control. We’re supposed to fly off the handle.
On Joe McCarthy
- I know he [McCarthy] got a bad rap because there are no monuments to Joe McCarthy. Liberals had to destroy McCarthy because he exposed the entire liberal establishment as having sheltered Soviet spies; If the internet, talk radio and Fox News had been around in McCarthy’s day, my book wouldn’t be the first time most people would be hearing the truth about McCarthyism.
- The portrayal of Senator Joe McCarthy as a wild-eyed demagogue destroying innocent lives is sheer liberal hobgoblinism. Liberals weren’t cowering in fear during the McCarthy era. They were systematically undermining the nation’s ability to defend itself while waging a bellicose campaign of lies to blacken McCarthy’s name. Everything you think you know about McCarthy is a hegemonic lie. Liberals denounced McCarthy because they were afraid of getting caught, so they fought back like animals to hide their own collaboration with a regime as evil as the Nazis.
- McCarthyism’ means pointing out positions taken by liberals that are unpopular with the American people. As former President Bush said, ‘Liberals do not like me talking about liberals.’ The reason they sob about the dark night of fascism under McCarthy is to prevent Americans from ever noticing that liberals consistently attack their own country.
On Earth
- The ethic of conservation is the explicit abnegation of man’s dominion over the Earth. The lower species are here for our use. God said so: Go forth, be fruitful, multiply, and rape the planet — it’s yours; God gave us the earth. We have dominion over the plants, the animals, the trees.
- God said, ‘Earth is yours. Take it. Rape it. It’s yours. That’s our job: drilling, mining and stripping. Sweaters are the anti-Biblical view. Big gas-guzzling cars with phones and CD players and wet bars — that’s the Biblical view.
On Global Warming
- Even right-wingers who know that “global warming” is a crock do not seem to grasp what the tree-huggers are demanding. Liberals want mass starvation and human devastation. There are more reputable scientists defending astrology than defending “global warming.”
- When are liberals going to break the news to their friends in Darfur that they all have to starve to death to save the planet? But global warming is the most insane, psychotic idea liberals have ever concocted to kill off “useless eaters.” If we have to live in a pure “natural” environment like the Indians, then our entire transcontinental nation can only support about 1 million human beings. Sorry, fellas — 299 million of you are going to have to go.
- Liberals are already comfortably ensconced in their beachfront estates, which they expect to be unaffected by their negative growth prescriptions for the rest of us. Liberals haven’t the foggiest idea how the industrial world works. They act as if America could reduce its vast energy consumption by using fluorescent bulbs and driving hybrid cars rather than SUVs.
- In fact, most scientists whose field is climatology and not, say, the mating habits of the zebra, do not believe we are in the midst of global warming. No matter what the weather does, it is invariably described as further evidence proving the authenticity of “global warming.” Climatologist Jane Fonda explained on her husband’s cable station a few years ago that the “invisible threat” of global warming includes the threat of an increased incidence of blizzards.
On War on Terror
- Not all Muslims may be terrorists, but all terrorists are Muslims; We should invade their countries, kill their leaders and convert them to Christianity. We weren’t punctilious about locating and punishing only Hitler and his top officers. We carpet-bombed German cities; we killed civilians. That’s war.
- I’m getting a little fed up with hearing about, oh, civilian casualties, I think we ought to nuke North Korea right now just to give the rest of the world a warning. I just think it would be fun to nuke them.
- When contemplating college liberals, you really regret once again that John Walker [Taliban American] is not getting the death penalty. We need to execute people like John Walker in order to physically intimidate liberals, by making them realize that they can be killed, too. Otherwise, they will turn out to be outright traitors.
- Liberals become indignant when you question their patriotism, but simultaneously work overtime to give terrorists a cushion for the next attack and laugh at dumb Americans who love their country and hate the enemy.
- The only subject fewer authentic Americans cared about than the treatment of prisoners at Guantanamo was World Cup Soccer. America is an epic global battle with ruthless savages who seek our destruction, and liberals are feeling sorry for the terrorists.
- As millions of lunatic Muslims plot to murder Americans, some Americans — we call them “Soccer Moms” — will cast a vote to save Michael J. Fox this year. In the process, they will put all Americans at risk by voting for a frivolous, dying party.
On Liberals
- Liberals hate America, they hate flag-wavers, they hate abortion opponents and they hate all religions except Islam, post 9/11. Even Islamic terrorists don’t hate America like liberals do. They don’t have the energy. If they had that much energy, they’d have indoor plumbing by now; Liberals have absolutely no contact with the society they decry from their Park Avenue redoubts.
- Liberals refuse to condemn what societies have condemned for thousands of years – e.g., promiscuity, divorce, illegitimacy, homosexuality; Liberals always get a lot of credit for suffering, while never actually being made to suffer; Liberals are always wrapping their comically irrelevant charges in a haze of lies; Liberals love America like O. J. loved Nicole.
- Since liberals can’t just say that they hate democracy because democracy requires persuasion and compromise rather than brute political force, they accuse any potential “strict constructionists” of being closet slavery supporters. Ludicrous ad hominem attacks on conservative nominees are then used as a basis for the respectable press to refer to the nominee as “divisive.” You are “divisive” if you have been the victim of McCarthy slanders from the left.
- Whether they are defending the Soviet Union or bleating for Saddam Hussein, liberals are always against America. They are either traitors or idiots, and on the matter of America’s self-preservation, the difference is irrelevant.
- Usually it’s impossible to have the satisfaction of winning an argument with liberals because they are genetically programmed to pout and chant slogans rather than to engage in logical argument.
On Democrats
- In the history of the nation, there has never been a political party as ridiculous as today’s Democrats. It’s as if all the brain-damaged people in America got together and formed a voting bloc; Like the Democrats, Playboy just wants to liberate women to behave like pigs, have sex without consequences, prance about naked, and abort children; Taxes are like abortion, and not just because both are grotesque procedures supported by Democrats.
- After repeatedly accusing John Ashcroft of essentially belonging to the Klan and harboring a secret desire to take away women’s right to vote and to murder them personally in back-alley abortions, the Democrats on the Senate Judiciary Committee made it clear that there would be no more Mr. Nice Guy when President Bush sends up his first Supreme Court nominee.
- This from a candidate [John Edwards] (I almost said a “man”) whose campaign falsely accused the president of stealing an election, barring a million black voters from the polls, and sending a thousand American soldiers to their deaths just for oil.
On Fascism
- My libertarian friends are probably getting a little upset now but I think that’s because they never appreciate the benefits of local fascism; The presumption of innocence only means you don’t go right to jail.
On Swing Voters
- The swing voters—I like to refer to them as the idiot voters because they don’t have set philosophical principles. You’re either a liberal or you’re a conservative if you have an IQ above a toaster.
On Ethics
- Liberals become indignant when you question their patriotism, but simultaneously work overtime to give terrorists a cushion for the next attack and laugh at dumb Americans who love their country and hate the enemy.
On New York Times
- My only regret with Timothy McVeigh is he did not go to the New York Times building. Of course I regret it. I should have added ‘after everyone had left the building except the editors and the reporters’; The only standard journalists respect is: Will this story promote the left-wing agenda?;
- The Times was rushing to assure its readers that ‘prominent Islamic scholars and theologians in the West say unequivocally that nothing in Islam countenances the Sept. 11 actions.’ Keep excluding the New York Times from all exclusive press briefings.
- I think, on the basis of the recent Supreme Court ruling that we can’t execute the retarded, American journalists commit mass murder without facing the ultimate penalty. I think they are retarded. I’m trying to communicate to the American people and I have to work through a retarded person!
- The New York Times editorial page is like an Ouija board that has only three answers, no matter what the question. The answers are: higher taxes, more restrictions on political speech and stricter gun control.
On Women
- I think [women] should be armed but should not vote. Women have no capacity to understand how money is earned. They have a lot of ideas on how to spend it It’s always more money on education, more money on child care, more money on day care.
- It would be a much better country if women did not vote. That is simply a fact. In fact, in every presidential election since 1950 – except Goldwater in ‘64 – the Republican would have won, if only the men had voted;
- These [9/11 widows] broads are millionaires, lionized on TV and in articles about them, reveling in their status as celebrities and stalked by grief-arazzis… These self-obsessed women seemed genuinely unaware that 9/11 was an attack on our nation and acted as if the terrorist attacks happened only to them… I’ve never seen people enjoying their husbands’ deaths so much.
On Welfare
- Then there are the 22 million Americans on food stamps. And of course there are the 39 million greedy geezers collecting Social Security. The greatest generation rewarded itself with a pretty big meal; The “backbone of the Democratic Party” is a “typical fat, implacable welfare recipient; To a disabled Vietnam vet: “People like you caused us to lose that war”.
On Schooling
- [A] cruise missile is more important than Head Start; I have to say I’m all for public flogging. One type of criminal that a public humiliation might work particularly well with is the juvenile delinquents, a lot of whom consider it a badge of honor to be sent to juvenile detention. And it might not be such a cool thing in the ‘hood to be flogged publicly. Few failures have been more spectacular.
- Illiterate students knifing one another between acts of sodomy in the stairwell is just one of the many eggs that had to be broken to make the left’s omelet of transferring power from states to the federal government; If those kids had been carrying guns they would have gunned down this one [child] gunman. Don’t pray. Learn to use guns.
On Foreigners
- I’d build a wall. In fact, I’d hire illegal immigrants to build the wall. And throw out the illegal that are here. […] It’s cheap labor; When we were fighting communism, OK, they had mass murderers and gulags, but they were white men and they were sane. Now we’re up against absolutely insane savages;
- They’re never very high in anyone’s caste system, are they? Poor little Pakis; Perhaps we could put aside our national, ongoing, post-9/11 Muslim butt-kissing contest and get on with the business at hand: Bombing Syria back to the stone age and then permanently disarming Iran.
On Canada
- Canada has become trouble recently; It’s always the worst Americans who go there; We could have taken them over so easy. But I only want the western part, with the ski areas, the cowboys, and the right wingers. They’re the only good parts of Canada; Because they speak French; [Canadians] better hope the United States does not roll over one night and crush them. They are lucky we allow them to exist on the same continent.
Now that the Canadians finally know the score, it is time to end the Anthem to Ann Coulter, famous author, conservative, philosopher and commentator.
Ann, Here’s to You
Ann, I know that you are called all kinds of unkind names. That is just utterly incomprehensible and unfair. Sadly, people, especially them traitor liberals, are so biased, intolerant and fanatical. Generally, they possess the intelligence of a toaster, at best. Luckily, I know you are a strong, level headed woman. No one believes that dyke, bigot, Paris Hilton and boozer slander. 
Sue’ m.
That stuff about being a vulgar money making machine is just the voice of envy. What’s wrong with making an honest million or two bucks on fascism? It’s the American Way. What’s wrong with selling books by expressing one’s honest convictions out in the market places of college campuses and talk shows? Publicity is the key to all good things. It’s the future. Screw ‘m.
And just think about the injustice of being put in the same camp as weaklings such as Zell Miller, Joseph Goebbels, Howard Stern, Ralph Reed, Joseph Kennedy, John Rockefeller, W. R. Hearst, Thomas Watson, Pat Robertson, Jerry Falwell, Bill O’Reilly, Sean Hannity, Rush Limbaugh, Geraldo, Rod Parsley, and,
why not, Charles Lindbergh. This, of course, is the answer:
- C’ mon, it is a joke. I would never insult anyone by suggesting that they are like Ann Coulter. That would be mean”.
Ann, I just don’t know why I keep seeing Baghdad Bob in my mind whenever I think of you. Strange because you don’t look like him at all. After all, he wears glasses and is not a blond. But he seemed to mean what he said, just like you do, although perhaps not always accurate. Accuracy sure is overrated, though, don’t you think?
Joe Goebbels, on the other hand, looks more like you – slim, well spoken and no glasses. Perhaps a bit shorter than you but that’s a detail. It’s all really a matter of common views. Right?
The 14 Pillars of Fascism
Some liberal fool came up with fourteen points critical to American Fascism. I thought I’d make sure your statements truly conform to these sound fascism principles. After all, we want to make sure you really see the fascist light. So I rearranged things a bit and came up with the following. Personally, I think you pass with flying red and blue colors:
- Powerful and continuing expressions of nationalism: Liberals become indignant when you question their patriotism, but simultaneously work overtime to give terrorists a cushion for the next attack and laugh at dumb Americans who love their country and hate the enemy. Whether they are defending the Soviet Union or bleating for Saddam Hussein, liberals are always against America. They are either traitors or idiots, and on the matter of America’s self-preservation, the difference is irrelevant.
- Disdain for the importance of human rights: The only subject fewer authentic Americans cared about than the treatment of prisoners at Guantanamo was World Cup Soccer. I’m getting a little fed up with hearing about, oh, civilian casualties. We need to execute people like John Walker in order to physically intimidate liberals.
- Identification of enemies/scapegoats as a unifying cause: In the history of the nation, there has never been a political party as ridiculous as today’s Democrats. Taxes are like abortion, and not just because both are grotesque procedures supported by Democrats. Liberals hate America, they hate flag-wavers, they hate abortion opponents and they hate all religions except Islam, post 9/11. Liberals are always against America.
- The supremacy of the military/avid militarism: I think we ought to nuke North Korea right now just to give the rest of the world a warning. I just think it would be fun to nuke them. America is an epic global battle with ruthless savages who seek our destruction. Don’t pray. Learn to use guns. [A] cruise missile is more important than Head Start. Not all Muslims may be terrorists, but all terrorists are Muslims;
- Rampant sexism: It would be a much better country if women did not vote.. Women have no capacity to understand how money is earned. I’m so pleased with my gender – we are not too bright; I’m here, I’m not queer, [Clinton] masturbates in the sinks; Clinton is in love with the erect penis.; Bill Clinton “was a very good rapist”; Al Gore – total fag. John Edward…. “faggot”.
- A controlled mass media: My only regret with Timothy McVeigh is he did not go to the New York Times building, after everyone had left the building except the editors and the reporters’. The only standard journalists respect is: Will this story promote the left-wing agenda?;
- Obsession with national security: I’d build a wall. Bomb Syria back to the stone age and then permanently disarming Iran. [Canadians] better hope the United States does not roll over one night and crush them. They are lucky we allow them to exist on the same continent.
- Religion and ruling elite tied together: We should invade their countries, kill their leaders and convert them to Christianity. Christianity fuels everything I write. Being a Christian means that I am called upon to do battle against lies, injustice, cruelty, hypocrisy—you know, all the virtues in the church of liberalism; I’m a Christian first and a mean-spirited, bigoted conservative second, and don’t you ever forget it. God said so: Go forth, be fruitful, multiply, and rape the planet — it’s yours; God gave us the earth. We have dominion over the plants, the animals, the trees.
- Power of corporations protected: God said, ‘Earth is yours. Take it. Rape it. It’s yours. That’s our job: drilling, mining and stripping. Sweaters are the anti-Biblical view. Big gas-guzzling cars with phones and CD players and wet bars — that’s the Biblical view. Liberals haven’t the foggiest idea how the industrial world works. They act as if America could reduce its vast energy consumption by using fluorescent bulbs and driving hybrid cars rather than SUVs.
- Power of labor suppressed or eliminated: Then there are the 22 million Americans on food stamps. And of course there are the 39 million greedy geezers collecting Social Security. To a disabled Vietnam vet: “People like you caused us to lose that war”.
- Disdain and suppression of intellectuals and the arts: My libertarian friends are probably getting a little upset now but I think that’s because they never appreciate the benefits of local fascism.
- Obsession with crime and punishment: I have to say I’m all for public flogging. The presumption of innocence only means you don’t go right to jail.. Liberals love America like O. J. loved Nicole. Even Islamic terrorists don’t hate America like liberals do. One type of criminal that a public humiliation might work particularly well with is the juvenile delinquents, a lot of whom consider it a badge of honor to be sent to juvenile detention. If those kids had been carrying guns they would have gunned down this one [child] gunman.
- Rampant cronyism and corruption: Cheney is my ideal man. Because he’s solid. He’s funny. He’s very handsome. He was a football player. But he’s a very handsome man. And you cannot imagine him losing his temper, which I find extremely sexy. The portrayal of Senator Joe McCarthy as a wild-eyed demagogue destroying innocent lives is sheer liberal hobgoblinism. Everything you think you know about McCarthy is a hegemonic lie.
- Fraudulent elections: The swing voters—I like to refer to them as the idiot voters because they don’t have set philosophical principles. You’re either a liberal or you’re a conservative if you have an IQ above a toaster. As millions of lunatic Muslims plot to murder Americans, some Americans — we call them “Soccer Moms” — will cast a vote to save Michael J. Fox this year. In the process, they will put all Americans at risk by voting for a frivolous, dying party. ….falsely accused the president of stealing an election, barring a million black voters from the polls, and sending a thousand American soldiers to their deaths just for oil.
Ann, please keep up the good fascist work. We all depend on you! Someone got to keep the light shining. Someone to give us hope for a fascist America. Someone to stand up to against the profiteering, liberal, communist, Hollywood and Wall Street so called elite. Someone that gives the common man hope. Sieg Heil! Credere, Obbedire, Combattere!
Thank you, Karl
Global Warming 4: Disastrous Disaster Forecasts
March 4, 2007
Global Warming is in the news every day. Rarely is the news good. Can it lead to Apocalypse, Armageddon, doomsday, showdown, annihilation, extinction? It can indeed. But will it, if drastic changes are made? It probably will not. What do we need to change to avert doomsday? Can such changes actually happen? Those are the important questions.
Drastic changes only happen if credibility is beyond doubt that “staying the course” means certain disaster. Global Warming is an extremely complex issue and layman credibility is a tall order. No one knows the full story. Many conclusions rely on murky assumptions fed to climate forecasts of dubious accuracy. Past cry-wolf forecasts of different subjects were wrong, their assumptions off the mark. Skeptics believe, suspect and argue that Global Warming is yet another forecasting fad and flop.
Ignore the forecasts and focus on Global Warming as it impacts Earth today. The uniformly negative actual events are enough to paint a very bleak picture. Current 
events will be felt long into the future, perhaps for a thousand years. That is not a forecast but plain scientific fact. Chemistry is chemistry, as are physics, biology and geology. Do the Skeptics know better? If they do, they better prove it.
The forecast issue clouds people’s mind and therefore must be dealt with. This post examines intricacies of forecasting. What is real, what is not and how do you tell the difference?
Odes and Songs – Ballad of the Lemmings
Let’s take an example from Sweden, known for balanced, considered and calm views. Their very conservative government meteorological institute recently published a fact sheet on climate change as observed in this icy, Northern outpost. Some points made in this the Ballad of The Lemming:
- Northern temperatures are up about 1 degree Celsius. Rainfall, due to severe thunder storms, is up 7%. Ocean levels rose due to glacial run-off and higher temperatures, causing flooding.
- Climatic and growth zones move North at a rate of 10 km per year. Existing,
stationary forests are threatened as their eco systems move north. - Some alpine areas have lost 15 meters, or 45 feet, of its snow and ice pack. Alpine tree-limits rose from 700 meter above sea level to 1,200 meters.
- The density of harmful insects is increasing. New species of butterflies arrive.
- Nordic lemmings (see picture) are going extinct because their natural tundra habitat is thawing. The declines in lemmings cause a decline in the fox and owl population.
I choose this example, the Ballad of The Lemming, because it is neither unique nor all that dramatic. Similar climatic and ecological events happen in Chile, the Sahara, Maine, Bolivia, Tibet, China, Indonesia, Alaska, the Urals or just about anywhere including the Arctic and Greenland. Add the events happening in the oceans, alpine mountain tops, tundra, glaciers, ice sheets, ice packs and coral reefs and the true picture slowly emerges.
The lemmings’ microcosm is real, measured and documented. These events are not causing the extinction of Swedes today. Nor is the rest of the world seriously threatened by the demise of the lemmings. Some of us may not truly care what happens to lemmings. It’s really just another rat. But multiply this simple example by a factor of thousands and you might get concerned. You should be.
About the Essay and Its Eight Parts
I split the essay into eight posts because of its size. Click here for more details on each post.
- The first post examines the basic reasons why we ended up in this dreadful mess.
- The second post covers the political and UN scene.
- The third post deals with rising temperatures.
- The “Sauerkraut” post dives into Europe and its mysteries.
- The present fourth post bares secrets about the forecasting business.
- The fifth post explains the problematic contribution of rising populations.
- The sixth post discloses public and not so public opinions on Global Warming
- The seventh post looks at the very real effects of Global Warming already present.
- The eighth post views possible outcomes – cure or disaster?
Additional posts cover special subjects, comments and news. The “Sauerkraut” post looks at Europe and its peculiar history of early tribes, wars and more wars, deceit, Fuehrers, Generalissimos, Emperors, Kings and Queens, imperialism, strange food, democracy, greed ending as the world’s largest market and how all of that more or less relates to Global Warming.
Table of Contents
An elaborate link and TOC (Table of Content) system helps you get around the mass of material in this essay of eight main posts. Use it to find what is of your most immediate interest. Just above, there is a TOC button that lets you enter the navigation system. Enjoy.
| Blog Home | Home Site | Portfolios |
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- GlobalWarming:1 – Culprits, Scoundrels and Villains
- GlobalWarming:2 – Politics, Scandals, Mass Committees
- GlobalWarming:3 – Few Like It Hot
- GlobalWarming:Europe – Sauerkraut, Bourgogne, Bangers
- This Post: GlobalWarming:4 – Disastrous Disaster Forecasts
- GlobalWarming:5 – Just Too Many Of You
- GlobalWarming:6 – Lies, Madness and Some Truth
- GlobalWarming:7 – Terrifying Evidence
- GlobalWarming:8 – Cataclysmic Apocalypse?
Odes, Ballads, Songs and Arias
This essay contains real life mini stories. They describe usually small, even insignificant, effects of Global Warming. The aim is to make you consider reality, survival, pain and your own future. I cite simple stories about how some of us (humans, animals, plants, oceans and everything else) are already in, or cause, deep trouble. Here are links to the various little puzzle pieces:
- Allegro to “There Ain’t No Global Warming”
- Adagio to the Krill
- Mountain Top Chorale
- Tiger in Your Tank Two Step
- I Ain’t Seein’ Nuttin’ Strut
- Farming Greenland Fiesta
- Ballad of the Lemmings
- Carol to Failures
- Ode to an Ancient Past
- Cacophony of a President
- Tale of the River
- Northeast Song
- Chant for the Confused
- Hymn to the North
- Parchment Míddjarn
- Anthem to the Oceans
- Aria for the Polar Bear
Images in this essay
The photos in this post are devoted to the oceans, being a crucial part of the Global Warming 
process. Watch the many nuances of oceans, fishing, wildlife and pollution. I’ll have a lot more to say about the seas, rising, falling, their streams and mind boggling energy contents, ice, ecology, krill, cod, whales, bottoms, reefs, salinity, temperatures, acidity, photosynthetic and thermohaline processes, evaporation and perhaps most crucial – its storage reservoirs for carbon dioxide gases.
I produced most of the factual graphs from my own databases, combining data from many sources. All photos in this post are from external sources.
This blog, its design, text content (except quotes from others) and my own images and graphs are copyright © Leading Design, Inc 2006-2007. All Rights Reserved. I make absolutely no claims on images or quotes originating in other sources.
Odes and Ballads – The Carol to Failures
Throughout history, bad and failed forecasts abound. This Carol sings the story of many such cases, most real and some pure fantasy. Enjoy the flops, ignorance, BS and plain incompetence. Marvel at the level of foolishness. Laugh at the dim views. Then try to laugh about 
today’s incredibly ridiculous views. The trouble, of course, lies in knowing just which view is laughable and which is the true gospel. You’ll never be safe or sure.
The carol comes in three verses, the first two deal with old failures to grasp the basics. The third verse pokes a bit of fun at events today. The thing is – can you really tell what might be and what might not? Here’s the Carol to Failures:
Verse 1 – Statements by those that should have known better:
- “Fooling around with alternating current, AC as we know it, is just a waste of time. Nobody will use it, ever. It’s too dangerous. Direct current is better.”; “The phonograph has no commercial value at all.” Thomas Edison
- “X-rays will prove to be a hoax.” Lord Kelvin, 1883; “Man will not fly for 50 years.” Wilbur Wright, 1901; “The Titanic is practically unsinkable” Engineers, 1912. “Who the hell wants to hear actors talk?” H.M. Warner, 1927.
- “It is significant that despite the claims of air enthusiasts, no battleship has yet been sunk by bombs.” From a US Navy pamphlet dated November 28th 1941, eight days before the bomb attack on Pearl Harbor sunk eight battleships.
- “Among the really difficult problems of the world, [the Arab-Israeli conflict is] one of the simplest and most manageable.” UK Newspaper 1948
- “There is not the slightest indication that nuclear energy will be obtainable. It would mean that the atom would have to be shattered at will.” Albert Einstein; “The atomic bomb will never go off, and I speak as an expert on explosives.” Admiral William Leahy.
- “[Man will never reach the moon] regardless of all future scientific advances.” NYT 1957; “Space travel is utter bilge.” UK Astronomer 1956; “Space travel is bunk.” UK Astronomer 1957.
- “There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in their home.” DEC 1977 (now bankrupt); “640K ought to be enough for anybody.”; “We will never make a 32 bit operating system.” Bill Gates (not bankrupt).
Verse 2 – More formal and quite embarrassing forecast flops:
- 590, 992, 1424, 1700, 1882, 1911, 1914, 1925, 1928, 1936, 1952, 1953, 1967, 1981, 1982, 1991, 1993, 1998, 2000, 2003 and 2006: the all time favorite forecast -The End of the World is near; 1552, 1844, 1992 and many more – The Return of Christ is near. Both forecasts are frequently quoted on the US Senate floor by Highly Religious Senators.
- 1798 forecast by Thomas Malthus – Great Britain and the world face immediate and deadly starvation; 1865 forecast by Stanley Jevons – British coal will run out within a few years; 1914, 1939, 1951 forecasts by US Government Agencies – Oil reserves will be depleted within ten years. Not true.
- 1919 Albert Porta – The Sun is about to explode. 1950s – Nuclear War is imminent; 1960s saw Summers of Love, a New Left, a Sexual Revolution, Social Activism, Counter-Cultures, LSD and much more, all of which were to last, none of which did. Sadly.
- 1968 – The Population Bomb by Paul Erlich – “The battle to feed all of humanity is over. In the 1970s and 1980s hundreds of millions of people will starve to death in spite of any crash programs embarked upon now. At this late date nothing can prevent a substantial increase in the world death rate…” So far no sign of this dreadful event. Not counting Africa, of course.
- The 1960s and 1970s – The Ice Age is coming (this is not really a flop – unusually decisive government action changed the outcome). The 1972 forecasts by the Club of Rome – All kinds of raw materials from gold to oil will run out within decades. Details follow below.
- 1987 – Raveendra Batra published “The Great Depression of 1990”; 1988 – he published advice how to deal with said depression, followed in 1998 by “Stock Market Crashes of 1998/99”, in 1999 by “Crash of the Millennium” and in 2004 “Greenspan’s Fraud”. I suppose the dot com bust might be what he meant by the 1998/9 Stock Market Crashes. The rest of the stuff is pure bunk.
- 1993 and 1994 – the U.S. Treasury Department’s staff rejected the notion of the Euro as “fantasy”; The late 1990s – At midnight December 31 1999, all computers face meltdown due to that little year mistake. Sorry, no go.
Verse 3 – My personal forecasts of current affairs, based on absurd fantasies, nightmares, lies, insults, a few jokes and serious mental issues:
- Skeptics finally and convincingly prove the liberal inspired Global Warming is a hoax – it’s only a few sun spots and Martian cosmic rays; it’s a poor loser named Al Gore; it’s treasonous, falsified, biased data and/or outrageous, politicized lies and it’s corrupt, greedy, anti-Christ scientists loving the spot lights and fat grants.
- Common Conservative Sense prevails as does creationism and school prayer. The ultimate demise of Democrats dooms gay deviants, abortionist monsters, misguided abortionees, Social Security freeloaders, obstructionist generals, whiny veterans, minimum wage losers, rabid Jews, shameless lawyers, Arab nihilists, homeless duds, clueless actors, shifty gypsies, Cuban weekend warriors, anarchist atheists, NYT journalists, hateful Islams, deadbeat immigrants, Hillary Clinton, Ralph Nader and yours truly blogger.
- Weirdoes are out, neo cons are in. Indian casinos, surveillance, racial profiling, torture and border fences are popular as are lobbyists, under the table money, Halliburton, reborn Enron and Good Ol’ Religion. James Inhofe takes over EPA. Oprah Winfrey runs for President with Dr. Phil as VP and David Letterman as Campaign Manager but loses badly to the Jerry Springer/Tom Cruise/Bob Dole team.
- George W. Bush approval ratings skyrocket, opening the East Coast, Washington DC, the Alaska Wildlife Refuge and Hope, Arkansas for oil drilling and pipelines. Other initiatives include whale hunting and secret detention of suspect Americans such as jaywalkers, San Francisco residents and Catholics. Dick Cheney wins the Nobel Peace Price, shoots the last whooping crane, Bill Frist and Tom DeLay while narrowly missing Barney the Scottish Terrier. Chief Justice Donald Rumsfeld approves ethnic cleansing of Bronx, New York, by a new mean and lean FBI.
- Bill Clinton is arrested for groping three undercover policemen, Ann Coulter, Donald Trump, Ruth Ginsburg and Britney Spears. DNA proves he is not the father of Dannielynn Hope Marshall Stern, nor Daniel Wayne Smith – “It was only a cigar and I did not inhale”, Bill promised. Hillary Clinton stands by her man, announcing her safe-bet VP candidate of choice, the late Strom Thurmond.
- Paris Hilton heads the Christian Coalition of America. Michael Jackson is elected Democrat Senator from Idaho. Bill O’Reilly, President of UC Berkeley, rejects lame, teary pleas for a job from disgraced, homeless Stephen Colbert. Rush Limbaugh is the CBS Medical Expert on ED, anchoring the “Living A Swinger’s Life” segment. Larry King announces he is the loving father of Dannielynn Hope Marshall King. Rudi Giuliani announces he is the excusive North American licensee of the British “Peerage for Cash” program. “Just bring the cash”, he said, abandoning Presidential plans.
- The 2007 hurricane season wipes out Cuban Miami, Guantanamo, most of Mexico and Havana due to the outlawed Global Warming. “Praise the Lord”, announces President Bush, sending Michael Brown, DHS Over-Secretary, to level the mess. Brown, believing Miami is in Alberta, Canada, charters a plane and departs for Frankfurt, Germany.
- Secretary of Defense Ann Coulter wins the Iraqi war, establishes fascism and sends the troops back for R&R before the next mission. Iraq’s cache of WMDs is surrendered to Greenpeace for use against Japanese whalers. Peace and fascism spreads across the entire Mideast in spite of defeatist slants from Barack Obama, Jay Leno, Martha Stewart, Geraldo, Nancy Pelosi, Liza Minnelli and Pat Buchanan. Michael Brown levels Iran in a case of mistaken identity, heads for Moscow-Miami International.
- Terrorists are those refusing to stand tall beside George W. Bush for decent photo ops. Terrorists are all the same – bad, bad people with unruly beards to be tortured for invaluable info on Osama bin Laden’s shoe size, toothpaste and boiled mutton recipes, then deported to the CIA affiliate Bulgarian Freedom Subcontractors and Executioners (NASDAQ BFSE) to maintain our collective, well surveilled security. Michael Brown is last seen departing for Tokyo-Miami International after accidentally levelling Moscow. “Praise the Lord”, Mr. Bush exclaimed, “Brownie, you’re doing a heck of a job”.
Don’t get me wrong. Many forecasts actually come out right. The eruptions of Mount St. Helens and Mount Pinatubo were correctly forecasted, saving many lives. 9/11 was forecasted but no one listened. The Iraq war disaster
was forecasted but Bush ignored the evidence. The Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor was accurately forecast but the audience was asleep.
Salmon run forecasts in Alaska are pretty accurate. I can forecast my age going out several years. Greenspan’s 1996 stock market outlook “Irrational Exuberance” turned out correctly while mine did not. But my forecast that Phoenix is hotter than Anchorage turned out OK.
Forecasting disasters
Global warming is not the only disaster scenario in town as you might gather from the Carol above. 
I’ll look at two popular Armageddon views – the Club of Rome and a recent, overly pessimistic Fisheries study. I’ll discuss why these two forecasts failed. Why is Global Warming a real threat when these and other “Cry Wolf” scenarios were dead wrong? How do you judge what is what?
In the next post, I’ll discuss population growth, a thoroughly researched subject. My goal is to interpret its impact and possible future issues. It is a good example of how a potential disaster is dealt with in real life. That serves as the background to several important Global Warming issues.
Let me explain the basic philosophy of my “On Reality” series of essays. Nothing is real. We have 
very little knowledge of “Reality”. Our Reality is based on distortions. We can’t distinguish between distortions and Reality. That point of view is a major theme in this essay. To place your bet on survival based on unreal distortions does not seem to be a good idea. But if so, what is a good way?
By the way, why are we typically caught with our pants down when a catastrophe actually happens? Witness our lack of preparedness when hurricanes Hugo, Andrew and Katrina hit. Or check out the one hitting Galveston in 1900. Consider the lack of accurate disaster weather forecasts:
“With their understanding of the forces that act on tropical cyclones, and a wealth of data from earth-orbiting satellites and other sensors, scientists have increased the accuracy of track forecasts over recent decades.
High-speed computers and sophisticated simulation software allow forecasters to produce computer models that forecast tropical cyclone tracks based on the future position and strength of high- and low-pressure systems.
But while track forecasts have become more accurate than 20 years ago, scientists say they are less skillful at predicting the intensity of tropical cyclones. They attribute the lack of improvement in intensity forecasting to the complexity of tropical systems and an incomplete understanding of factors that affect their development.”
“The improved accuracy” may be true but don’t bother pointing that out to the citizens of New Orleans and surrounding areas. Consider Rumsfeld’s forecasts of post-invasion events in Iraq. They were not accurate as a few thousand dead Americans can attest. Is the lack of a forecast better or worse than failing to act on a one that happens to be correct? What do you do to a forecaster who misses the mark at the expense of thousands or millions of lives?
Real is Good
Evidence of Global Warming is already in place and well documented – the reduction of Greenland ice packs. The opening of the Northwest Passage due to melting ice. The disastrous effects of the 
Indonesian, Amazon and other deforestation. The emission of methane on a massive, but “natural” manner from warming Siberian lakes. The huge emissions caused by heating and cooling buildings. The transportation industry’s supply of high margin gas guzzlers and, yes, SUVs rather than efficient transportation. Temperatures edging upwards. The weather growing violent. We see droughts and famines, then storms and flooding.
Those effects are not dim, complex and vague forecasts – they are facts. That is why I believe Global Warming is real. Most established reports – IPCC 2007 and the Stern Report rely on and emphasize forecasting models. I believe that emphasis distracts from the message. Stick with observable facts.
- Realize that most forecasting is a futile act – there is no way to predict unexpected future events. The unexpected are the events that will shape the world, not those that happened in the past. The only time forecasting stands a chance is when such unexpected events by luck simply do not happen or cancel out. Such luck is very rare.
- A small example from the world of business: Tell me one non-involved person who forecasted the demise of Enron and WorldCom. There were plenty of smart people forecasting the opposite of what happened. In fact, forecasting the fall of either in, say, 1998 would have been viewed as pure irresponsible speculation (except by Kenny Lay, Bernie Ebbers and fraud pals).
- Another example: The US Federal Reserve sets interest rates based on its opinion of future growth, inflation and other black box fantasies. Everyone relies on that rate, from the stock market to home owners to foreign powers. Since the Feds revise their view several times a year and the factors they deal with usually change much slower, the Feds tend to be right quite often simply by “staying the course”. When the economy does the unexpected, the Feds will generally not recognize that in time but continue their “stay the course plan” too long. The Feds will exaggerate the ill effects of the unexpected change in the economy. They are a lagging indicator of the economy, not the leading indicator they should be.
- Forecasting is merely a tool: This post is about our inability to see into the future. Any view of the future is extraordinary limited and potentially dangerous. We routinely draw the wrong conclusions and make the wrong decisions about future events. We live in an uncertain world where almost everything is distorted. While there are a few good forecasts, there are simply way too many bad ones.
The most powerful super computers on Earth predict weather patterns. They, for instance, analyze hurricanes and predict t
heir track. Ask New Orleans citizens of their view of the accuracy of these super computers. Nor are they very good at issuing timely warnings for tornadoes or any type of extreme weather. In these cases, we look at a time frame ranging from minutes to a few days. Why would you expect these computers saying something meaningful a year out? Do you trust these machines to give good answers 20 or 40 years out?
No one likes uncertainty, least of all politicians and investors. Every one loves a forecast that provides the “right” answer. Yet limiting our beliefs to such forecasts is like relying on tea leaves or a pair of crutches. Concentrate on what actually is happening even if it is in a remote location far from you.
Secrets and Witchcraft
I’ve had the fortune to spend fifteen years as a technical forecasting guru. I created quite complex forecasting systems and used them to produce believable (if I was lucky) results to clients such as the UN, EEC, FAO, OECD, the World Bank and many other very big organizations. I forecasted everything from product life cycles, supply/demand of commodities, business cycles, housing prices, currency rates to industry ROI. Later on, I spent some 10 years as an economist for a major corporation.
After twenty five years in the business, I know where the forecasting skeletons are buried. I went away skeptical of many forecasting techniques and disgusted with the often sensationalistic and self promoting attitude of some forecasting and economist practitioners.
The downfall of forecasting is its reliance on historical data to provide a pattern. The forecaster extrapolates this pattern into the future, believing nothing will change except, possibly, changes to the pattern that the forecaster subjectively inserts. The mathematical system may be quite sophisticated, taking into account time series, cross sectional data, price elasticity, multivariate factors, spectral analysis, statistical and economic theories, measures, distributions, Groundhog Day, recent Elvis sightings and much else. The result is a huge, complex black box that is incomprehensible to most humans, including the scientists themselves.
Above is the math representation of a life cycle curve, known as a lognormal distribution. It was a favorite of mine for cross sectional analysis. It’s still used frequently.
I’m showing the graphs to emphasize the black box syndrome of the forecasting business. For all its little mysterious variables and odd Greek characters, below are some samples of the different forecasts you can get given the wonder of science shown above. Just look at the spread of the curves and pretend they are forecasts of world temperature. Pretty wild, huh? Makes any sense? Of course it does not. This complex mass of
math and theory is quite a powerful tool – better than many others. But few of us understand that power and even fewer can use it effectively. The graphs are obtained from here.
The sophisticated systems of today may explain history in an astonishing detail but not necessarily in the right manner. Even assuming the researcher got the historical patters right, why does anyone believe that these patterns will hold true in the future?
Here are a few examples where historical trends were useless in forecasting the future:
- In the first years of the 1900s, no one had successfully flown a heavier that air airplane. Thus the forecast said 1) man would never fly or 2) if in fact man did fly, then there would never be commercial air traffic. In the 1950s, no man had reached into space, therefore it would never happen. “Manned space flights are bunk”. There are scores of similar examples where because no one succeeded in the past, it would never happen. Ever. Wrong.
- 1960s forecasts of a new ice age did not consider that the sharp rise in SO2 pollution could be reversed as in fact it was. Early forecasts claimed that Global Warming would never happen since it never happened in the past. Just because something didn’t happen is no guarantee it will not happen eventually.
- I’ll never get fired because I never was fired in my life. I’m sad today, therefore I’ll never be happy. I’ll never suffer from cancer because I’ve never had cancer. I’ll never die because I never died in the past. Ladies and Gentlemen, place your bets – true or false?
- WWI was the war to end all wars. More troops in Vietnam would win the war. In 2003, Bush forecasted the Iraqi mission was accomplished with the capture of Baghdad. He stated Iraq would be the Mideast stronghold of democracy and a base for spreading the gospel to the rest of the area. None of this nonsense turned out accurate.
- Forecasts say mankind will run out of this or that vital resource: oil, coal, food, Barbie dolls, space, umbrellas, Mini Coopers, pot, Internet IP addresses or fish sticks (frozen, breaded). Temporary conditions generally do not last long. I believe the Minis are still in tight supply but the other items are easily available.
- The 1990s forecasts of Microsoft stock doubling endlessly. The wildly overstated 1990s forecasts of fiber optic network demand. The 1990s forecasts of CompuServe’s ever rising customer base. A similar forecast from AOL based on the distribution of millions of CDs to unsuspecting households. The 2000s forecasts believed that Google stock will 1) fizzle or 2) rise forever. The 2000s forecast housing prices will increase forever is already proven false as are the other outlooks in this paragraph.
- The 1950s forecast that manufacturing costs would be low in Japan forever. The 1990s forecasts claimed that labor costs in Mexico, Korea, Taiwan and Singapore would remain low. The 2000s forecasts stated that manufacturing and service costs would stay attractive in Malaysia, Vietnam, China and India. None of these forecasts survived the test of time. Africa is the next exploitation target. That’s the last outpost.
- The 1950s and 1960s CIA assessed the superior economic and military strength in the USSR required the US to counter by spending more on “defense” – actually offensive – capabilities. The longstanding belief was that the Soviets sought to expand its dominance world wide – the domino theory requiring massive US counter measures. In reality, the USSR never expanded beyond Eastern Europe and was soon to go bankrupt.
The common feature in above examples is that some actual or perceived historical fact, trend or event somehow will govern the future. Occasionally, that is a valid assumption: we know the sun will rise in the east and settle in the west every day. We can forecast the position of stars and planets 
relative to earth with great precision. It’s easy to forecast when we turn 50. In general, except for a few such cases, assuming the past will prevail forever is a very bad foundation for decisions.
Any forecasting system can provide absolutely wild and totally unbelievable results. I produced a lot of systems that happily went off the map in believability and common sense. You quietly dump these systems and hope no one will notice. These rouge systems may explain historical patterns very well. There is plenty of theory explaining why this happens. Analysis of real life is very difficult. The earlier “lognormal” graph is a simple illustration of how you can get results that are so extreme that they are completely useless.
In real life, some fool starts a war in Iraq, throwing every oil price forecast out the door. Or it snows in Boston, destroying all flight forecasts in a jiffy. This in turn makes confetti out of stock price forecasts. Then interest rates rise or decline, freaking out the banks and pushes another Silicon Valley biotech company over the edge; just because it snowed in Boston. But MySpace.com and eHarmony.com flourished because what else can you do when it snows?
You’d be amazed to know how many controversial and perhaps newsworthy forecasts are based on a Forest Gump approach. They are not sophisticated or advanced. They are based on trivial “Statistics 101” level analysis. I’ll show famous examples below.
No one can accurately forecast future patterns, however smart the forecaster or his/her toys are. But some forecasts are better than others. Here are two examples, telling the tale of the furious battle of scientists (you and me):
You: You are given a grant to forecast meteor hits on Earth and their impact. You quickly analyze the precise effect of a 1 mile diameter meteor hitting the Aleutian Chain in Alaska on May 3, 2008 at noon, local time. Results: the globe will be real cloudy and cold for a long time, the Bering Sea fish stock evaporates, half of mankind dies and no one worries about Global Warming. Next, a historical pattern tells you meteors hit once every 10,000 years The last hit was 9,998 1/2 years ago. So you say May 3, 2008 will be a real bad day after consulting your PDA calendar. The world’s Mass Media report the sensational news. Every one runs for the hills. Of course today you have no idea if the meteor even exists. But history tells us… ah well, I hope you got the point.
Me: I am to forecast what will happen to a forest lot that was recently clear cut. Here is my forecast: on May 3 or 4, 2008, there will be no timber harvest from that lot. Why? First, it’s a Saturday or Sunday (remember the date line) plus many parts of Earth will be dark at noon Dutch Harbor time. Next, I forecast that there will be no mature timber on the lot, hence no harvest. I also boldly forecast there will be no meteor hit that day because I want what’s left of your grant money.
You: The meteor forecast may be detailed and accurate as to the impact of a hit. The problem is you relied on that 10,000 year historical pattern. The probability of that holding true for that day and location is microscopic and pure speculation. You are promoted to Dutch Harbor’s postal office effective May 5, 2008. I win the grant.
Me: The sneaky forecast of no meteor hit is likely right on. My harvest forecast uses the historical pattern saying it takes about 80 years to grow trees. That is well researched and based on biological facts. I’m pretty safe about the week end, no work deal. Lastly, I’m OK if there are earthquakes, insurgent attacks, tsunamis or forest fires on the lot. My no harvest, no meteor forecast for May 3/4, 2008 is a pretty sure winner.
Serious practitioners are quite aware of high and low probability forecasts. If faced with low 
probabilities, produce “what if” scenarios. Put all high probability forecasts on page one, whether relevant or not. That provides a range of perhaps relevant answers but no special way to determine the real outcome. Forecasting models are also of value when looking at the consequences of doing nothing – the obvious, simple answer: no change means more of the same but it can really impress the audience if “the same” is quantified in some convoluted manner. Often, the safest forecast is saying something will NOT happen as is evident in the example above. “In our forecast, no tsunami will hit Chicago tomorrow”. Gee, promote that guy, he is right again.
Here are examples of low probability forecasts, meaning they probably won’t be correct:
- Timing of meteor hits, tornadoes, hurricanes, cyclones, earthquakes or volcanic eruptions.
- Spotting Elvis, the Loch Ness monster, James Traficant or Michael Jackson next Tuesday.
- The stock market and commodity futures one month out. Weekend movie ticket sales.
- Timing of turns in economic cycles. Housing market peaks or bottoms. The price of oil.
- The roulette table hitting 6 three times in a row (anytime soon) in your favor.
- Fish catches two years out. Agricultural yields six months out. Kentucky Derby winners.
- GHG concentrations returning to the levels of 1900 in 6 months. Gas prices in Vermont.
- Glaciers back to 1950’s levels in a year. Swedish lemmings prospering.
Here are some higher probability forecasts, meaning a pretty good chance of hitting the mark:
- Forest land harvest one year out (assuming no forest fires and similar catastrophes).
- No meteor hits, UFOs, volcanic eruptions or earthquakes at your place tomorrow.
- Your loss in one day’s Las Vegas gambling exceeding what you can afford.
- One’s income next week (assuming no meteors). One’s rent/mortgage bill next month.
- Tomorrow’s weather being the same as today. Rain today means rain tomorrow.
- Average world temperatures 5 years out and its impact on many ecological changes.
- GHG levels 5 years out and its impact on temperatures and ocean acidification.
- The US, China and India will not curb CO2 emissions within the next two years.
How do you judge the accuracy of forecast model? If you are a scientist and forecaster you examine the methodology, if available, and you consider probabilities. Sometimes you deep-six the other guy’s model because he is a competitor or, possibly, because Mr. George W. Bush told you so. If you are a real person with no expertise, you exercise skepticism till a sufficient number of real experts will put aside their vicious infighting (“where the stakes are low”, as some say) and tell the truth.
With all this negativity – why don’t I reject the Global Warming outlook as I do with so much else? It really boils down to four factors.
- First, much of the data does not rely on forecasts but on readily observed actual events. The rise in temperatures and increases in green gases ARE occurring NOW.
- Second, these events are widespread, consistent, univocal, readily observed and measured. Few deny the universal importance of global warming except George W. Bush, his friends, employees and lobbyists and a few neo con bloggers.
- Third, there is a unique case of general agreement among experts. In doubtful cases, there will be differing opinions and lots of infighting. Most scientists are in a rare state of agreement in the case of Global Warming.
- The fourth factor is that the scientific community has strong enough arguments to actually generate some world wide political attention. That attention resulted in the Kyoto Protocol, its annual boondoggle conference and a few, at times, meaningful national and industry programs, such as in the EU. Unfortunately, universal attention does not equal universal political action.
I’ll draw on three examples of real life forecasting: first, the disaster scenarios of the Club of Rome in the 1970s and 1980s. Second, I’ll examine recent forecasts that there will be no edible fish by 2048. Third, I’ll cover population growth and related alarmist outlooks (next post).
The Club of Rome
How many of you know about, or remember, the Club of Rome? Probably that is not too many, these days. The Club was formed in 1968. In 1972 it published a book that sold 35 million copies. The 
book caused both the rise and fall of the Club. The Club still exists although it’s hard to understand why. For a time in the 1970s and perhaps the 1980s, they were really quite influential. Today they are not, to the best of my knowledge.
Their book is called “Limits to Growth”. It dealt with perceived limits to raw materials throughout the world. They stated that gold would run out by 1983. Petroleum (oil) would run out around the mid 1990s. Since it was published in 1972, the oil crisis starting in 1973 seemed to confirm their thesis. Even I have a copy of the book somewhere. It really had a broad cult following of millions.
The trouble, of course, is that their forecasted disasters never happened. That will destroy credibility quite fast. And it did to most of the world. Who are these guys anyway? They are labeled a global “think tank of innovation and initiative” to this day. Their motto:
“As a non-profit, non governmental organization, it brings together scientists, economists, businessmen, international high civil servants and heads of state and former heads of state from all five continents who are convinced that the future of humankind is not determined once and for all and that each human being can contribute to the improvement of our societies.”
They do have a current membership which seems to fit their motto to some degree. For instance, Queen Beatrix of the Netherlands and Mikhail Gorbachev are members as are a number of ex-Presidents and big shot Academia. To this day, they do seem to deal with a variety of issues and operate on a world wide basis. Critics say it is an elitist, old boy European power group with very murky motives, whatever that means.
Let’s return to their 1970s glory days of “Limits to Growth” (sponsored by Xerox by the way). They used a model called World3 to run a series of analyses to examine what they called static and exponential indices of supply and demand of key raw materials in light of very rapid growth in populations. The index is simply the ratio of supply (existing reserves) to annual consumption.
They forecasted this ratio based on two assumptions: The static index assumed that demand is constant. The exponential index let demand (but not supply) increase by some growth rate. The result would be the number of years of remaining supply.
The alert reader will realize that the exponential index will result in a quicker catastrophe (running out of raw materials) than the static index. The two graphics next to this text illustrates their forecasts of gold and oil (petroleum) supply, as seen in 1972. You can see gold running out by the early 1980s. Oil would run out by the late 1990s. They were wrong by, probably, a few hundred years as we know today.
This model is quite naive. It’s below Statistics 101. It’s a classic example of bad analysis somehow gaining a foothold in the minds of ignorant people (including me for a while). The analysis and results mean absolutely nothing. Not too surprising, it was a total failure. Incidentally, it took me about five minutes to reproduce their “World3” forecasting system in Excel. It took a bit longer to produce the two graphs above (I’m no Excel guru) to show how their model works.
The “Limits to Growth” of 1972 led to 1992’s “Beyond the Limits” and various updates in 1993 and 2004. You might wonder what they had to say after their so incredibly silly first try. Here is a sample (source here):
“Society has gone into overshoot … a state of being beyond limits without knowing it. These limits are more like speed limits than barriers at the end of the road: the rate at which renewable resources can renew themselves, the rate at which we can change from nonrenewable resources to renewable ones, and the rate at which nature can recycle our pollution.
… We are overshooting such crucial resources as food and water while overwhelming nature with pollutants such as those causing global warming.”
‘Beyond the Limits’ recognizes that the future doesn’t lie in tinkering with resource use or simply squelching population growth in developing countries. A sustainable future will require profound social and psychological readjustments in the developed and developing world.”
Current crop yields can only sustain the world’s population at subsistence levels … while nonrenewable energy resources and fresh water supplies are dwindling, and greenhouse gases and other pollutants increase.
But while the prognosis is disaster within decades if nothing is done, there are encouraging signs.
Technology offers greater efficiency in energy consumption and pollution control, international response to the ozone crisis has been relatively swift, and recycling efforts are gaining headway.
[However] … the conditions underlying limit overshoots-population growth and resource depletion in a finite world, for example–remain un addressed in the corridors of power.”
I’m not clear on what they are saying above except I’m surprised by their statement about Global Warming which has to be a very early reference (1992). Have they learnt? Perhaps they have, perhaps not. Perhaps it is the strange English. There is no way to tell unless you read their books. I’m not sure I have the time. Frankly I don’t care. This is too much like shooting fish in a barrel.
Forecasting Traps and Mistakes – Take 1
Here are a few items ignored by the Club (and, by the way, a lot of other bad analysis):
- The forecast doesn’t account for productivity and technology – one kilo of raw material lasting longer or growing faster. One kilo of computer is infinitely more powerful than 20 years ago. A given car part is much lighter than before. The DVD won over the video tape and the CD. CDs killed cassettes. Cassettes killed LP’s.
- The forecast doesn’t consider finding more recoverable resources – such as new findings or better extraction of, say, gold, oil or coal. Additional resources are found daily through very sophisticated means. Consider solar power panels – unheard of just a few decenniums ago.
- The forecast ignores that scarce resource demanding a higher price leading to diminished demand – the oil crisis of 1973 lead to explosive growth in the use of wind power. Wind power can theoretically supply all of Earth’s electricity needs. High gas prices recently dampened the demand for SUV’s.
- The forecast fails to account for preservation acts – today’s gas mileage is far better than in 1973. Most appliances use less energy. Food items stay fresh longer. There is an abundance of legalities aimed at preservation from a household level to big industry.
- The forecast doesn’t allow for substitutions for the scarce materials. Wind power, again, is a good example. So is the use of somewhat controversial hybrid or electrical cars. The possible substitutions of gas fuel by ethanol, natural gas, butane, propane, diesel, hydrogen fuel cells and improved lithium batteries.
- The forecast bypasses the influence of political means to protect, regulate and promote resources through subsidies, tariffs, threats, intimidation and any other means. Take textile, steel, farming, tobacco, sugar and lumber as just a few examples.
- The forecast is completely out of whack with the historical data: Historical data is not always relevant if there is an explainable break in trends. However, be very suspicious if no history is shown or no explanation is given why there is a break. What do these guys want to hide? Easy: the history doesn’t support their insane forecasts. Perhaps they never explained or looked at history, just making up some numbers.
Simple historical trends and patterns NEVER last. They ALWAYS change. Any forecast that assumes static relationships is sure to fail. Unfortunately, there really are no reliable ways to forecast how these historical relationships will change. That did not bother the Club of Rome – they simply ignored history, changing trends and made up the numbers.
No more Fish
I like fish. It tastes great if done the right way and it is mostly good for you although various toxins and bacteria are alarming in some fish catches. As a kid I went fishing with spectacular failures. Once upon a time I ran a fish wholesale business, doing just as badly as in my fishing endeavors. I even went to College learning about fish and the preservation of quality (keep’m cold, don’t step on’m).
So when I see headlines stating no more fish beyond 2048, I’m alarmed. Never 
mind if I live that long I probably won’t care. Still it sure sounds bad indeed. The headlines were due to a quite recent study by the University of Stockholm, published in Science Magazine and funded by the National Science Foundation.
A personal comment: I will mention trends, techniques and events in this section that I personally am not all that happy about, such as fish farms and genetically manipulated fish. I will set aside my own concerns to provide an unbiased and balanced (?) perspective.
The study deals with what the authors call “collapses of stocks”. First a fact: about 140,000 species go extinct every year, some part of which is fish. Second, according to the study, a third of fish species have “collapsed” since 1950. In 1950, six commercial species went critical. By 2003, 2,200 species had collapsed according to the study. A species is collapsed when the harvest falls below 10% of historical levels.
Below is one of my reasons for suspicion. The graph shows US fish and shellfish consumption per capita from 1910 to 2004. It looks like consumption was pretty flat from 1910 till the late 1960s. Then, up till the RECORD year of 2004, consumption INCREASED steadily by about 60%. Further, the data is on a per capita basis. The US population increased by 300% between 1910 and 2004. That means that gross US consumption of fish increased by a whooping 360% over the 94 years with no sign of letting off.
Where are the signs of “collapsing species”, starting in 1950? There is sure no sign thereof in the US. Perhaps some species have suffered but substitution more than made up for that. Data source: US National Marine and Fisheries Service.
The next question in my mind was that perhaps the US is uniquely lucky in this regard. So I tool a quick look at the rest of the world. Indeed, the picture in Europe is a bit different. Based on data from 1990 through 2003, it looks like European fisheries hit a peak in 1995 and has fallen quite dramatically since. That may not be too surprising since their primary catch – North Atlantic cod – has indeed collapsed. A closer look at the data reveals that the decline (and the 1995 peak) was shared almost totally by two countries: Denmark and Spain. Major fishing nations such as Norway and the UK seem to be unaffected. Neither do UN figures for the world as a whole seem alarming as shown in the graph above.
Obviously, there is something I’m missing. Or is it? Here are the authors somewhat feeble conclusion:
Human-dominated marine ecosystems are experiencing accelerating loss of populations and species, with largely unknown consequences. We analyzed local experiments, long-term regional time series, and global fisheries data to test how bio diversity loss affects marine ecosystem services across temporal and spatial scales.
Overall, rates of resource collapse increased and recovery potential, stability, and water quality decreased exponentially with declining diversity. Restoration of bio diversity, in contrast, increased productivity fourfold and decreased variability by 21%, on average.
We conclude that marine bio diversity loss is increasingly impairing the ocean’s capacity to provide food, maintain water quality, and recover from perturbations. Yet available data suggest that at this point, these trends are still reversible.
The study mentions possible 
solutions or, at least, hopeful factors, such as marine conservation. That sounds innocent enough, but the world newspapers draw different conclusions using the sensational parts of the report.
The study forecasts that commercial fish species would all have collapsed by 2048. The world press quickly picked up on this and the news flew around the world in no time. A few accounts, first some of the pro arguments:
- Unless we fundamentally change the way we manage all the ocean species together as working ecosystems, then this century is the last century of wild seafood… It looks grim, and the projections into the future are even grimmer
- The impacts of species loss go beyond declines in seafood, the authors said, noting that human health risks also emerge as depleted coastal ecosystems become vulnerable to invasive species, disease outbreaks and noxious algal blooms.
- …. Declining species diversity could have profound impacts, creating more unstable marine ecosystems that are quicker to crash and slower to recover. For humans, the decline in diversity was tied to declining seafood harvests, water pollution and a stagnation of maritime economies. And as more species collapsed, they concluded, the overall ecosystems may unravel at a faster rate.
- The research team analyzed 32 controlled experiments, observational studies from 48 marine protected areas and global catch data from the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization’s database of all fish and invertebrates worldwide from 1950 to 2003. The scientists also looked at a 1,000-year time series for 12 coastal regions, drawing on data from archives, fishery records, sediment cores and archeological sources.
- …. Pressing question for managers is whether losses can be reversed, the authors said. If species have not been pushed too far down, recovery can be fast, they found, adding that there is also a point of no return where recovery is unlikely, as in the case of the northern Atlantic cod.
- Examination of protected areas worldwide showed that restoration of bio diversity greatly increased productivity and made ecosystems 21 percent less susceptible to environmental and human-caused fluctuations on average—an indication that ocean ecosystems have a strong capacity to rebound.
All of the above SOUNDS reasonable with responsible reporting and all. Obviously the study is quite detailed and possibly well thought through, based on the above. Still, why does none of this show up in readily available and authority based data? Next, some of the critique:
- Global fishing trends point to a collapse of most wild seafood harvests by mid century… “It’s just mind-boggling stupid,” said…. For example, most of the harvests in the North Pacific off Alaska… are not in sharp decline… (Seattle Times)
- (Paul R.) Erlich wrote that hundreds of millions of people would starve to death in the future (more to come). Of course the future was 1985. This [study] is similar nonsense.
- ….. Does not share the researchers’ alarm. Fish stocks naturally fluctuate in population….. Developing new technologies that capture target species more efficiently and result in less impact on other species or the environment…….. Industry does not adversely affect surrounding ecosystems or damage native species.
So some disagree. That’s to be expected. Yet, I don’t really see the answer. Llet’s look closer. Here is the simple graph from the study that destroys a fair bit of its credibility:
Sorry about the blurriness – no, it isn’t your eyes after too much reading! Look closely at the graph. Here is another classic example of exaggerating a few facts (history) to create a sensational result. And yes, they did gain the attention of most major newspapers and magazines around the globe. The trouble is that the conclusion reached in the graph is dead wrong. 
Consider this. First, do you see the similarity to the Club of Rome nonsense? In both cases there is a trend line (forecast) that dramatically heads down to hit a rueful zero (or in this case “100% collapse”) What I said about the errors of Club of Rome applies just as much here. Do not blindly extrapolate your favorite trend.
Second, they – as opposed to the Club of Rome – provided a bit of historical data which to an untrained eye may validate the results. A trained eye immediately picks up on a glaring error in the analysis – notice that the historical data points are all BELOW the trend line in the 1980s and ABOVE the trend line in the 2000s. That statistical phenomenon is called auto correlation and invalidates the collapsing trend line right there.
Again, how come their historical data bear no resemblance to the historical data I picked up from the UN and the US government? It certainly raises some integrity questions. Can’t they even get their easily verified history right?
Let me play with the graph above a bit:
As you can see, I extended the time scale by a hundred years or so. Then I penciled in (so to speak) a straight line that fits the historical data far better than does the original downwards curved trend 
line (the one the authors insanely labeled “Projected trend” to the joy of mass media). The new, much more technically plausible “Do Nothing” forecast delays Armageddon till 2122 – by 74 years.
But even the more optimistic, linear “Do Nothing” trend is no better than the Club of Rome’s static index foolishness. It ignores any break in historical patterns. The chance of that happening is zero. It disregards all kinds of scientific wisdom.
So I made my own assumptions. I speculated that some positive change will occur. It might be effective Fishery Management, which can work well and is in place today in many part of the world. 
It might be fish farms that have spread, successfully, like wild fire for many years. It might be genetically managed fish on a huge scale. Or it could be an improvement in the astonishingly low productivity in the fishery industry in general. Perhaps such measures will turn the curve up. Why not, it happened with some species of whales.
The hypothetical result is a curve that returns to previous heights. Perhaps not very likely considering disasters such as North Atlantic cod but still just as plausible as any of the study’s unsubstantiated calls. Take Maine lobster, left for dead a few years ago. They were over fished, near extinction and no doubt “collapsed”. Today Maine fishermen enjoy record catches with no sign of depletion or “collapse”. That’s what Fisheries Management is all about. Plus some luck.
But I’m still troubled. The optimistic assumptions that I made are plucked right out of thin air. I ignore far too many other possible outcomes. For instance, how will global warming affect the fish ecology? The oceans are warming up. Acidity and salinity change faster than in a very long time. Will that kill fish or the other way 
around? What about the mercury poisoning of many fish species and other pollution impacts? What about the possibly disastrous side effects of fish farms? Farmed fish can severely threaten wild stocks. What about biotechnology – good or bad? How will pollution affect the ecology of the oceans? Anyone claiming to understand these issues a liar. No one has all the answers.
The fact is fish stocks may easily nosedive. The pessimistic study forecast may prove to be right for the wrong reasons. The same is true of any view of the future. Things may easily go to hell. We live in a world very vulnerable to mankind’s manipulations. We need no forecasting systems to tell us that. Just look around you.
Forecasting Traps and Mistakes – Take 2
Take 2 adds the lessons learnt in the Fisheries example plus some other general observations, many of which I’ll discuss in later posts in this series. This is the final list of do and don’t items. Put it on your wall.
- The forecast doesn’t account for productivity and technology – one kilo of raw material lasting longer or growing faster. One kilo of computer is infinitely more powerful than 20 years ago. A given car part is much lighter than before. The DVD won over the video tape and the CD. CDs killed cassettes. Cassettes killed LP’s. Farmed fish grows faster than wild fish. Farmed trees grow faster than old growth. Genetically managed fish, trees and food drastically change the supply curve. General labor and capital productivity in food production, such as farm land optimization, feed stock growth and disease control, in particular in less developed areas, can hugely increase food production.
- The forecast doesn’t consider finding more recoverable and/or renewable resources – such as new findings or better extraction of, say, oil or coal. Additional resources are found daily through very sophisticated means. Consider solar power panels – unheard of just a few decenniums ago. Fishermen are remarkably adept at finding new species to catch as their traditional markets or supplies decline. Continued energy shifts such as towards wind, solar, recycling, farming (including food, fuel, trees and energy), hydro or even nuclear energy is not only possible but highly likely.
- The forecast ignores that scarce resource demanding a higher price leading to diminished demand – the oil crisis of 1973 lead to explosive growth in the use of wind power. Wind power can theoretically supply all of Earth’s electricity needs. High gas prices dampened the demand for SUV’s. Historically, high priced fish has been substituted for lower priced, often new species – when is the last time you chose wild King salmon over farmed salmon in the supermarket?
- The forecast fails to account for preservation acts – today’s gas mileage is far better than in 1973. Most appliances use far less energy. Food items stay fresh longer. There is an abundance of legalities aimed at preservation from a household level to big industry. Alaskan king crab went through a major boom-bust cycle some twenty five years ago – preservation has led to a solid recovery of the species to the point of being a threat to other species. Energy conservation and supply from a macro national level to micro household actions will be effective.
- The forecast doesn’t allow for substitutions for the scarce materials. Wind power, again, is a good example. So is the use of somewhat controversial hybrid or electrical cars. The possible substitutions of gas such as ethanol, natural gas, butane, propane, diesel, hydrogen fuel cells and improved lithium batteries. Farmed fish substitute for low stocks in some areas and possibly globally – cod and salmon in the North Atlantic, wild salmon in the Pacific Northwest, various other species in Chile and elsewhere.
- The forecast bypasses the influence of political means of protecting, regulating and promoting resources through subsidies, tariffs, threats, intimidation and any other means. Take textile, steel, farming, tobacco, sugar and lumber as just a few examples. Fishery Management in the US, New Zealand and elsewhere are examples as is the moratorium on deep-sea trawling.
- The forecast ignores that historical patterns generally cannot be extrapolated into the future for all the reasons above.
- The forecast does take into account major shifts in demographics, immigration, regional labor imbalances, all of which can lead to explosive social problems.
- The forecast does not address economics: growth, stock markets, currency rates, budget deficits, employment, capital formation, productivity and entitlement programs. Balancing supply and demand across countries: free trade, free labor movement, free capital flows, international cooperation politically and financially.
- The forecast ignores ecology issues: the weather, pollution, ozone layer, El Nino, flood control, poison spills, farm land runoff, forest fires, and much else such as Global Warming and catastrophic events.
- The forecast fails to account for human and livestock health issues: affordable drugs for less developed countries, new drugs and treatments such as cell stem innovations, crisis management: flues and viruses, control of Mad Cow and other animal diseases are crucial items that need resolution.
Our ABC of forecasting the future in a comprehensive manner is getting quite long. Of course, not all of these items are required in all forecast projects. You probably can ignore Mad Cow disease when determining the need for day care centers in lower Manhattan. The ozone layer may have little to do with balancing supply and demand for crayons. But as you dive deeper into the game of forecasting, you will be surprised at the complexity of seemingly simple issues.
Next and Previous
Here is a summary of the eight posts in the essay. Navigation links are located just below the summary.
GlobalWarming:1 discusses why Global Warming happened, who and what causes it, ending up with a list of villains. It did not go into the consequences of Global Warming. There was no discussion of impacts on the oceans, the Arctic, Greenland, El Nino, ecosystems, the weather, tundra and ice packs. The Kyoto Protocol or the Stern reports or other Global Warming topics were not covered. That is yet to come.
GlobalWarming:2 covers two main subjects. The UN provides a real mixed bag of positive and negative influences on the fight against Global Warming. The positive is that they try, have some credibility and many resources. The negative is that they fail. The current versions of the Kyoto Protocol and its associated reports do not reduce emissions. The CER system causes more harm than good. Solutions exist but are not acted on. Industrial strategies and national policies do little to reduce Global Warming – in fact, the opposite is often true in spite of rhetorical lip service.
Global Warming:3 examines the basic root cause of our problem: rising temperatures. Is the increase real and does it matter? Is it natural or caused by man? Are the temperatures unusual compared to history? Do GHGs actually cause the increase? What can past temperature variations tell us about what we face today? Can you even trust the basic data and analysis of temperatures? The post answers those and other questions in exuberant detail.
The current GlobalWarming:4 notes that Global Warming is not the first disaster forecast ever done, published and hyped. There were many in the past and as a rule they failed. The disaster in question simply did not happen because extending some historical trend into the future does not work – trends change. So the question is – why is this particular doom and gloom outlook right? What is different this time? As you will see, plenty is different.
GlobalWarming:5 reviews the role and issues of population growth. This is a vital issue for future emissions as shown in GlobalWarming:1. Historically over the past 250 years, the explosive growth in populations explains two thirds of the increase in GHG emissions. The rise in personal carbon use must be reversed as must other issues related to unbalanced growth in populations.
GlobalWarming:6 summarizes some important and a few not so important opinions on Global Warming. Global Warming is a battle ground, galvanizing the left against the right, neo conservatists against liberals, the sane against those not quite sane, the religious right against evangelists, politicians against constituents, reactionaries against activists, bloggers against bloggers, late show hosts against ratings, journalists against circulations, spokespersons against skeptics and, not least, scientists against scientists. This post contains a small sample of the rare truth, accusations, biases, 
opinions and propaganda thrown left and right, up and down.
GlobalWarming:7 is perhaps the meat of this series. It gets into the details of what is happening right now in the some 25 different real life areas. The true impacts of Global Warming range from ocean bottoms to mountain tops, from oil fields to highways, from tundra to tropics and from farm fields to smoke stacks. These items are not forecasts, assumptions or opinions but verifiable hard facts. The picture is indicative of your, and my, future. The earthly signs get worse by the day.
GlobalWarming:8 paints three scenarios (not forecasts) of what might happen in the future. There are pessimistic, optimistic and middle of the road pictures. The three scenarios use simple, common sense assumptions, very different from the elaborate, multi million $ systems enjoyed by the UN, the Stern Report, EPA and others. The big systems rely on myriads of assumptions as input, many of which aren’t really known and/or subject to lots of complexity. I favor the KISS approach.
I’m by no means competing with the “big” studies or the smart people putting them together. I used to be a forecasting guru working for the UN, the World Bank, FAO, OECD, the EU and many Fortune 500 companies. I guess I have a right to an opinion. No one is required to consider my views.
I am completely nonaffiliated. No political party enjoys (or wants) my support. I have no axe to grind. I receive no monetary compensations, grants or sponsorships. There are no PayPal buttons on these pages. I have no obligations to fulfill. Office politics do not thrive around here. I promote no agendas except my own – the survival of us all. Occasionally, I put up some of the photos from my portfolios and my photo business.
GlobalWarming:5-8 will follow together with other commentaries and follow ups. Hang in there. The links below help you navigate this monster essay. It’s all quite important to your health.
| GW:1 | GW:2 | GW:3 | GW:4 | GW:5 | GW:6 | GW:7 | GW:8 |
|---|
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Global Warming Europe- Sauerkraut, Bourgogne, Bangers
March 1, 2007
Everyone blames the US, China and India for the evils of Global Warming. Rightfully so, they do emit shameful amounts of greenhouse gases, refusing to take responsibility. But what is the story of the largest economy of all? That’s Europe, not the US. This post is aimed at those curious about the wholesomeness of the Old World when it comes to climate change. Why do they act as they do? Are they innocent? I’ll run through a bit of history and current affairs to come up with answers.
Fact 1: The EU – the European Union – recently proposed a major Global Warming initiative. This initiative, following the IPCC 2007 Paris report, aims at a 20%, or even 30% reduction in greenhouse 
gases (GHG) emissions by 2020 compared to the 1990 levels. Let’s examine that.
Fact 2: The EU is one of the corner posts of carbon credits (CER) trading. The Emissions Trading Scheme attempts, allegedly, to control the corrupt schemes of CERs and to provide a fair trading body. Is that working?
Question 1: How come Europeans are now the Good Guys? Are they? After thousands of years of barbaric, bloody history, now EU is trying to be the true, sane democracy to itself and the world. Can it make a contribution for the better? Is it Realpolitik as usual or does it really have a smattering of idealism and responsibility?
Europe, in particular the EU, is the largest homogenous market in the world, yet nowhere close to exercising the power it could. It comes from a fragmented mess with a long history at slaughtering each other rather than cooperating for prosperity. The membership ranges from Luxembourg, tiny but incredible rich, to poorhouse Romania. The overall population of 495 million (compared to 300 million in the US) includes Malta’s 400,000. It’s seen Hitler, Mussolini, Napoleon, the Kaisers, Soviet suppression, the Berlin Wall, Kings and Queens, 30 year or even 100 year long wars, the Roman and 
Greek Empires, Imperialism, Bubonic plague, the Vatican and wars, wars and more wars.
Note: here is a major simplification. When I mention “Europe”, I sometimes refer to EU 25 (the 25 European nations belonging to the European Union as of 2004). These countries comprise the vast bulk of Europe, and it is easier by far to obtain data on this bloc than the “total”.
This stand-alone essay is linked to my main Global Warming essay as published in this blog. Below are links to the first three posts in that essay. The complete essay will contain five more posts.
- GlobalWarming:1 – Culprits, Scoundrels and Villains
- GlobalWarming:2 – Politics, Scandals, Mass Committees
- GlobalWarming:3 – Few Like It Hot
Images in this essay
The photos in this essay come from my fine art multimedia presentation Symphonie Noir. I finished the Symphonie last year and it has been exhibited publicly. Contact me if you’d like a quote for 
your personalized, numbered and signed, full size, museum quality print from the current edition. You can view images from the full Symphonie here. The DVD multimedia show is also available.
I produced the factual graphs from my own databases, combining data from many sources.
This blog, its design, text content (except quotes from others) and my images and graphs are copyright © Leading Design, Inc 2006-2007. All Rights Reserved. I make absolutely no claims on images or quotes from other sources.
Global Warming Heating Europe
Europe emits 15% of the world’s total GHGs, all of which are subject to the Kyoto Protocol caps. The US, Australia, China and India together produce 45% of the world’s GHG emissions. None of the 45% is regulated by the Protocol. The rest of the world spews out the remaining 40%, mostly not 
subject to caps.
The “Certified Emissions Reduction” CER system of the Kyoto Protocol divides, essentially, the world into providers of CER money and receivers of CER money. Europe, Japan and Canada are the providers. The “less developed” countries (which includes China, India, Korea, Mexico, South Africa, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Brazil, Singapore and other rapidly growing, no-longer-that-poor countries) are the receivers of money with no obligations at all. China is the biggest receiver of all, subject to vast CER corruption while remaining the second largest and fastest growing polluter.
In the EU, only two countries emit more than 2% of the global total. Nineteen countries individually emit less than 1%. Seven emit less than .1% of the world total. Many of these totally insignificant emitters question what difference it makes if they reduce their emissions from .1% to .08% of the world total while China aims at overtaking the US by emitting more than the EU combined.
Yet Europe is, largely, a major supporter of the Kyoto Protocol and the fight against Global Warming. 
Certainly national interests dominate. Lip service is widespread. Actual results are questionable. But no other area has done as much. The Bush administration jealously claim the voluntary system in the US produced more emission cuts than the EU managed. That is complete BS. The US energy consumption is growing rapidly as are emissions. European emissions are flat and have been flat for decades.
Very recently, the EU suggested a Global Warming Initiative that should reduce GHG emissions dramatically. The initiative is scheduled for debate in March 2007. I’ll discuss some scenarios of how this initiative may or may not make a difference. But first, let see what Europe is all about.
I aim this essay at those perhaps not really knowing Europe that well. Europeans, read and laugh your heads off. As matter of disclosure, I lived in Europe for 30 years. I’ve traveled all over the place. I love it dearly.
Master Killers
After Australia, Europe is the smallest continent by area. Today, a little less than 700 million people live there (EU 25: 500 million). People wise it is dwarfed by both China and India. Area wise, the US is larger. Economically, Europe beats them all – while its population is 11% of the world, GNP is 35%.
Modern humans in Europe trace back about 35,000 years. By contrast, Africa saw modern humans 200,000 years ago, from which the Europeans evolved. Early Europeans formed small bands of 
hunters. 10,000 years ago agriculture led to more stable settlements of a tribal quality. Conflicts and territorial competition quickly followed. Civilizations such as Egypt evolved 6,000 years ago. The empires of Persia and Rome came into being about 2,500 years ago. Greece was a major influence in much of the early European days.
Empires withstanding, early Europe was organized around tribes, developing into cities, states and a few other organizational structures. The Holy Roman Empire contained some 300 states. Italy was made up of some 15 distinct provinces. Germany included 38 different states, 4 free cities and five kingdoms. At the time, there really was no such thing as Germany, Italy, France or Europe. This extreme fragmentation prevailed and is still present today.
With fragmentation, war followed as part of an eternal power struggle. Kings, Queens, Kaisers, Popes, Cardinals, Priests, Lords and Emperors all wanted more. At the cost of millions dead, the
modern nations eventually evolved. As nations came into being, wars continued while exploitation and conquest of the rest of the world started in earnest. Africa, Asia, America soon knew who the boss was. Europe dominated the world and its nations fought for the prizes, whether Aztec gold or Asian spices.
But wars grew more and more costly while a strange thing called democracy became reality – no longer were divine or not so divine rulers in command – the people became powerful, political parties popped up and most kingdoms became republics. The people took their seat in the sun.
Yet, it took two world wars to finally tear down imperialism, Kaisers, Generalissimos and Fuehrers. Today’s Europe is very different from that of even 100 years ago, not to mention 1,000 years ago. It is working on becoming one bloc as opposed to the thousands of tribes in medieval times. No longer do Europeans have colonies. Kings and Queens, if still present, are figure heads. Emperors are long gone. Perhaps nostalgic about times passed by, Europe adjusted and is doing well.
Europe is still influenced of the old tribes, the habit of making wars and intolerance galore. The Balkan wars of the 1990s are splendid examples of not only tribal wars but the murderous impact of
religious fanatics and ethnic cleansers. Iraq, while not part of Europe, shows the same barbaric consequences of religious differences. Ethnic cleansing always was a part of life. Racism is far more common than admitted. The Holocaust was and is not an isolated event.
As recently as a hundred years ago, Europe and its nations were the superpowers of the world. Asia and Africa was split between the masters. North America managed to split away but that was the exception. Europe never forgave the Americans and never will.
So here you are: from tribes to states to nations to superpowers by the way of war after war, followed by collapse. Eventually, a new consolidation came along, this time called the European Union or the EU. Today Europe is a fairly peaceful place. It is rich. Its democracies are more stable than any others. But never forget the Europe of the past. Don’t for a moment imagine racism, tribal conflicts, power struggles and national envy has disappeared.
Alliances – Idealism, Realpolitik,Greed
The Second World War ended, in Europe, in May of 1945. The power structures of Europe were crushed and replaced by those of the USSR and the US. The comeback of Western Europe happened quite quickly while Eastern Europe disappeared into failing Soviet fiefdoms. The Cold War focused on Europe as the main battle ground of America versus the USSR.
Masters of Deception
Europe fought at least 60 wars since 1300, averaging one every 12 years. Casualties are in the hundreds of millions. No country avoided the slaughter; many were almost constantly in conflict. 
Germany and France lead the charge with England not far behind. Following the collapse of the USSR, many countries reduced their military forces drastically to only support international peace keeping rather than domestic aggression.
The history of betrayal, deception and secrecy is long and colorful. The Europeans are master plotters, negotiators and back stabbers. Here is a short list of events to keep in mind:
- Florence in the Renaissance – a study in betrayals, double crosses, power struggles. The Italian wars of early 1500s – power struggles, alliances, counter alliances and betrayals. The Republic of Venice – profiteering from the Crusades, exploiting trade controls, devious aristocrats, secret police, you name it.
- The secret support from the Roman Catholic Church towards Nazi Germany, during and after WWII. The current Pope Benedict XVI enlisted in the Hitler Youth in 1941 and served in the German air defense. Pope Pius XII is widely known as the Nazi Pope with far reaching involvement in favor of the Germans before, during and after WWII.
- The conspiracy to murder Julius Caesar in 44 BC – “Et tu Brutus”, “Help, Brothers”, “Villain Casca, what do you do?” No plea stopped the murder, no brother or friend interfered.
- Hitler’s 1939 non-aggression pact with Stalin to divide Poland, Finland, Romania and others. Stalin ended up in chock on June 22, 1941 as the Operation Barbarossa attack by Hitler on Russia commenced.
- The murder of Archduke Franz Ferdinand and wife by Gavrilo Princip on June 28, 1914, marking the start of an escalation leading to WWI. Princip was one of six Serb assassins in a madcap and bizarre event.
- The 1884 anti-Semitic conviction of Alfred Dreyfus by France based on falsified evidence. The conviction was engineered by the French High Command. Dreyfus spent 12 years on the Devil’s Island till being pardoned after Emile Zola’s intervention “J’ accuse”. He fought in WWI, ended up a Lt. Colonel with Legion d’Honneur.
- In the 1970s, violent underground terrorist organizations operated in Germany, Italy and elsewhere – The Red Brigade, the Red Faction or the Baader-Meinhof Gang are the most infamous examples. The death toll wasn’t great but the terror factor was effective.
- Consider the plays of William Shakespeare – Betrayal, lust, power, egotism, murder and ambition a galore. Or what about Wagner’s Niebelungen Ring: 15 hours of mysticism, Greek drama, Jungian psychology nonsense, alleged socialist critique. This German high romance was favored by Hitler and the Nazis.
- The Holocaust is by no means the only European anti Semitism tragedy. Pogroms occurred in Poland, pre-Hitler Germany, Spain, Britain, Switzerland and Romania. Anti-Semitism has a history of at least a thousand years in Europe.
- A wave of covert Communist spies originated in the 1930s at upper class English universities, in particular Trinity Hall at Cambridge. Known as the Cambridge Spy Group, John Cairncross, Kim Philby, Guy Burgess, Donald McLean, Anthony Blunt and Michael Whitney Straight all spied for the Soviets after rising to significant positions in the British civil service, including in the Foreign Service, MI6 and MI5. The Group was devastatingly successful. Several defected to Moscow after exposure. Oxford University produced its Oxford Spy Group but with far less success than the Cambridge Group.
- George Blake is another famous spy of the same WWII – early Cold War era, who apparently still lives in Moscow after a successful career for, among others, MI6. Sir Roger Hollis, one time Director of MI5 is a suspect spy of the same mold, as are Peter Ashby, Leo Long, Brian Symon, Goronwy Rees, John Vassall and Victor Rothschild. Quite likely, this is just the tip of the iceberg.
- England is famous for its political scandals: the 1912 Marconi scandal – corruption; the 1963 sexual/spy Profumo Affair that sent Jack Profumo from a Minister post to cleaning toilets at an East End charity; architect John Poulson bribed various politicians until exposed in 1972; the 1973 call girl scandal resulting in the fall of Cabinet minister Earl Jellico;, Liberal Party leader and MP Jeremy Thorpe lost his appointments in 1976 after a gay affair and shooting a dog; author and MP Jeffrey Archer lost his posts in 1999 due to various sex, perjury and fraud accusations; Edwina Currie’s alleged 1984 affair with PM John Major; Scottish party leader David McLetchie resigning in 2005 after submitting false travel expenses; Liberal spokesman Mark Oaten stepping down after gay affairs in 2005; and finally, Tony Blair’s possible involvement in the 2006 Cash for Peerage scandal.
You got to admire the colorful history of scandalous Britain. No other country comes close. Has Europe changed in light of the EU and NATO? Hell, no. The old tribes will get you anytime.
NATO – Center of Leaky Secrets
Initiated in 1948’s Treaty of Brussels and formally established in 1949, NATO provided the first level of integration that included the US as the leader. NATO is a system of collective, mutual security: 
“An armed attack against one or more of them [members] in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all”. If an attack would occur, “Each of them [members] will assist the Party or Parties attacked by taking such action as seemed necessary, including the use of military force”.
As is typical of European agreements, there is a balance between the collective cooperation and integration versus national sovereignty. NATO provides common security but when the security is breached, each country can decide on its response, if any.
Behind the Iron Curtain, Eastern Europe and the USSR formed the Warsaw Pact in 1955 as a military countermeasure to NATO. In addition to military cooperation, the Pact guaranteed noninterference in each state’s internal affairs. The Soviets used the Warsaw Pact when invading Hungary in 1956 and
Czechoslovakia in 1968, each time crushing uprisings. The Warsaw Pact fell apart starting in 1988, ending in 1991. Today, these countries, minus Russia, are part of both NATO and EU.
Through the Cold War, NATO was only a deterrence never used beyond sable-rattling to counter Soviet sable-rattling. NATO simply existed as a defense against a Soviet invasion of Europe. NATO would respond using nuclear weapons to overcome the Soviet’s alleged huge advantage in number of tanks, artillery and soldiers. The USSR proposed it should be a NATO member in 1954 to preserve European peace. NATO refused, as you might expect.
In 1958, France revolted against NATO because it felt slighted by the greater influence by the US and the UK. Charles de Gaulle expelled US troops and by 1966, all French armed forces exited NATO. France still is not participating in NATO militarily but remains involved politically in an odd 
“I’m here, I’m not” game. France contributes a significant part of NATO’s budget and even commits 5,000 troops to Alliance operations.
France has long established a Maverick status in European affairs. National pride, envy of others, pride in their language, general rudeness, intolerable arrogance and a thorough dislike of the US drives sometimes bizarre behavior. Yet, France knows very well it can’t isolate itself and is mostly supportive of European activities. They are not at all supportive of US activities.
Another strange twist is the then-existing and super secret paramilitary group Gladio set up, originally, to fight guerilla warfare behind Soviet lines. Gladio was trained by US Green Berets and British SAS troop, sponsored and commanded by NATO. This partly neo-fascist and ex-SS group carried out dozens of terrorist bombings, snipers shootings, torture, blamed on various leftist groups. Exposed in 1990, Gladio units covertly operated in at least 15 Western European countries. In many cases, the secret armies were well known to the national governments, in some cases not.
NATO conducted, and still run, plenty of covert operations with involvement of Britain’s MI6 and the CIA. Such operations include destabilization through terror in Italy and Belgium, military coups in 
Greece and Turkey and possibly a failed attempt to oust Charles de Gaulle of France, the infamous Algiers Putsch. NATO certainly is involved in the strange and utterly mismanaged “War on Terror” but its precise role is unknown.
NATO has more skeletons in its closet. Nuclear weapons were deployed without approval by or knowledge of the nations involved. Classified information on the Kosovo war was lost. A spy provided secret information on the Kosovo air operations to the Serb regime. Numerous spies provided information to East Germany, the USSR and others during the Cold War. Security breaches were and are more common that colds. Several NATO countries participated in US covert experiments with chemical and germ warfare involving civilians and soldiers in the sixties and early seventies. NATO was secretly involved with, and supported, terrorist organizations in Macedonia and Albania in the late 1990s.
After the demise of the Warsaw Pact in 1991, NATO had and has considerable difficulty finding a mission. After 40 years of preventing Soviet aggression but without ever having to actually prevent such aggression, it turned towards becoming an international security force. From 1993 through 1995, NATO invoked a non-fly zone to control the fractional civil wars of ex-Yugoslavia. In 1999, 
NATO fought an air war against Slobodan Milošević’s armies in Kosovo.
The 9/11 2001 attacks on the US led NATO to officially take several actions: militarily NATO provided defense of US airspace by deploying AWACS surveillance and naval operations in the Mediterranean Sea to prevent arms shipments to terrorists. Later, NATO stayed out of the Iraq controversy.
NATO today is in charge of the Afghanistan War. This is the first NATO involvement outside its traditional area,in fact it is NATO’s first involvement in regular combat. The mission is supported by most member states. Recently, the troop count in Afghanistan was about 32,000 from 37 countries. Although under a central command, the forces of each country are operating according to national rules, not NATO rules. The actual fighting is limited to troops from the US, the UK, Canada and the Netherlands. The other 33 countries do not fight. The debate on NATO’s mission continues.
EEC and the EU – Bureaucracy, Economics and Booze
The role as Cold War victims and the common bond of rebuilding a European power structure after WWII led to the formation of EEC, the European Economic Community, in 1957. Over the next fifty years, that organization swept through the entire continent, became the European Union with 25 
states as of 2004 and scheduled to go to 27 in 2007.
The EU is in essence a trade bloc with some coordinated internal and external policies. The general goal is to achieve an increasing degree of integration at the expense of some national sovereignty. This goal is open-ended and undefined. In practice, the EU is a number of institutions and common policies.
There are several drivers to the official EU doctrine. First, it grew out of devastating world wars and the threat of nuclear showdowns with the USSR. At least emotionally, there is a “No More Wars” motivation. Second, the creation coincided with a drive for increased equality between sexes, nations and worldwide. Third, the concept of increased international, national and individual solidarity was widely supported. Forth, it brought the hope of increased riches to the powerful elite and perhaps even the common man. Fifth, the economic benefits of trading blocs are well established. Sixth, it counterbalanced the excessive power of the US and the USSR. 
The EU institutions include or embrace the mammoth European Parliament (785 elected Members with no direct legislative power), the European Commission, the European Council, the European Central Bank, the European Court of Justice and the Council of the European Union. Common policies include an Economic Policy, a Foreign and Security Policy, a Policy of Police and Judicial Cooperation, an Agricultural Policy, a Fisheries Policy and a Regional Policy to assist EU states in the need of assistance. Add the common currency of the Euro that rapidly became a staple internally within the EU but also an international alternative to the yen and the dollar.
As you might gather, the EU is a classic example of bureaucracy running wild. Not only that, it is a bureaucracy with only a few fangs. Although it can provide a lot of pressure on member states, member
states do not always succumb. The Euro, for instance, is the day to day currency in only half of the EU countries.
Integration of longstanding policies of 25 (now 27) countries, from hard line, ex-Communist Bulgaria to bicycle ridden Denmark, to Pound Sterling focused Britain and pot permissive Holland is a painful and sensitive process. That process goes into microscopic aspects of life in the member states. Traditional subsidies are challenged. Social policies are threatened. Protected economic segments might became unprotected. Minor issues can become “do or die” challenges. Major issues are often bypassed, delayed or ignored.
The major countries have organizations responsible for coordinating national policies to those of the EU. Such an organization ensures that a nation speaks with one voice towards the EU. The Open Method of Coordination is a recent concept that takes a soft approach to aligning policies and laws. The method relies on broad EU level policy statements and national, voluntary implementations. The tools include guidelines, bench marks and best practices. The enforcement consists of 
peer pressure and shaming, not mandates, threats or sanctions.
Here is an example of the issues tackled in great detail in the area of “Social Integration and Inclusion”. Details include: coordinated social and civil dialogues for the homeless, migrants, those disabled (including personal support, use of facilities, discrimination, medical and social care and benefit levels), others not included properly in society, persons with multiple disadvantages, old and young people, race equality challenged individuals, those affected by mandatory retirement, immigrants (legal or not), asylum seekers, refugees, young persons involved in trainee ships and the associated compensation, those suffering persistent and generational poverty, persons discriminated against, individuals affected by minimum income schemes, those overloaded by family responsibilities, self employed individuals and, finally, those dependent on social assistance and those not getting such assistance. Imagine coordinating all this in 27 countries, each with histories of domestic policies going back to the beginnings of life.
Take booze with its age old influence on individual lives. Policies range all the way from liberal (South Europe) to restrictive (North Europe). In France and Italy, wine is part of life, taken for granted and certainly not viewed as sinful. The English like their pink gins, bitters, pints, cider and salty dogs. Many associate Alpine skiing with Jagermeister. In the North, consumption of booze is a sinful act prone to be taxed heavily. It is controlled by the state in order to maintain perceived health standards. Here, booze is sold through government monopoly stores with strict id controls and long 
queues. Elsewhere you buy it in grocery stores.
The attempts to equalize “alcohol policies” led to the strangest side effects. Previously, tax free shops sold cheaper booze to whoever crossed a border. Such savings became a good reason to cross a border. Smuggling spirits was not a sin to most. Neither was running an illegal home brewery or distillery a real crime. Today, tax free shops no longer do business as borders are wide open. Open markets threaten Nordic tax revenues as EU demands Northern prohibitive taxes on alcohol are lowered dramatically. Internet trade in cases of wine and the like bypass national restrictions to the wrath of policy hawks, holier-than-thou moralists and a concerned medical audience. Booze remains a significant integration issue with high emotional content. No current solution is seen. The battle continues.
Without question, the EEC and the EU benefited, now and in the past, the member states in spite of its weaknesses. Apart from the ex-Yugoslav wars, Europe experienced no wars since the formation of EEC fifty years ago. EU is the world’s largest economy. Coordination of major economic and social policies is a painful process but the result is generally positive.
A question is whether the benefits can remain as the bloc grows ever larger. Economic theory tells us the benefits decline with size as well as over time. Trade blocs really exist to counterbalance natural supply and demand mechanisms. Basic economic imbalances such as non competitive industries are hidden. The East Bloc is a good example with its totally non competitive industries that fell apart when exposed to international competition after the demise of the Warsaw Pact and the USSR.
Life in Europe
Fragmentation, stubborn national legacies, never ending power struggles, scandals, cloak and dagger, national exuberance, betrayals, deceptions mark life in Europe. Europeans are proud of a newfound emphasis on peace, cooperation and social consciousness. That is Europe in all its nuances and complexity. Here are a few other points that may be of interest:
- Europe long was long the only Western center of art, from the Greeks to Leonardo da Vinci, Cervantes, J. S Bach, Daniel Defoe, W. Amadeus Mozart, Ludwig van Beethoven, Charles Dickens, Peter Paul Rubens, Rembrandt, Paul Cezanne, Thomas Mann, Maurice Ravel, Igor Stravinsky, Pablo Picasso, Django Reinhardt, Robert Capa, Olivier Messiaen, Henri Cartier-Bresson, Albert Camus, Gunther Grass, Claude Chabrol, the Beatles, the Rolling Stone, Celtic Dancers and, of course, ABBA. Unmentioned artists, accept my apologies.
- Europe is a center of culinary delights that include boiled brains of calves or beef, breaded testicles, chopped lungs, garlicky snails, tender horse meat, frog legs, tasty kidneys, nutritious blood sausage or pudding, boiled ox tongue, rotten herring, sautéed calf’s ears, pig’s head pudding, raw tartar beef, smoked reindeer, boiled or jellied eels, barbequed pig’s feet or tails and how about braised rabbits. Mmmm.
- Europe really is the origin of great food. Where would we be without: Entrecote, Steak a poivre, Coq a vin, Bouillabaisse, Langoustine, Smoked salmon, Beaufort, Pommes frites, Crepes, Raclette, Spazle, Lasagna, Pâtés and terrines, Brie, Feta, Rosti, Meat balls, Salami, Blau Forelle, Boeuf Bourguignon, Yorkshire pudding, Foie gras, Stilton, Schnitzel, Gruyere, Souvlaki, Spaghetti bolognese, Olives, Fish and chips, Pizza, Frikadeller, Paella, Gorgonzola, Bratwurst, Kartoffelsalat, Jambon de Bayonne, Prosciutto, Moussaka or Scampi.
- Europe is a master of alcoholic beverages: France with more than twenty grape types, over a hundred wine districts and thousands of brands and vintages. Add the six growth areas and grape types for real cognac, the various distilling processes, the aging to VS, VSOP and XO status. Move on to Scotland and Ireland: whisky is made from grains into “vatted or single malt”, “grain” or “blended” variations and aged to many categories, blends and brands. Then there is absinth, pernod, armagnac, akvavit, gin, schnapps, slivovitz, vodka, ouzo, and thousands of liqueurs. Not to mention beer and ciders in endless variations.
- Europe offers seriously excusive travel destinations: cruise the Rhine valley, stay at castles with exclusive dining, admire ruins, check into the Claridge’s, do some river boat cruising, tour the White Cliffs of Dover, ski the Alps, hike from Zermatt, walk the Le Louvre, cruise the fjords, sun on a topless Riviera, gaze at the Sistine Chapel, sail the Greek Islands, stroll Via Veneto, ski Mont Blanc, fall in love in Paris, climb the Matterhorn, stay in Hotel De Crillon or Arctic hotels made of ice, discover the Parthenon, experience the North Cape, pray in the Canterbury Cathedral, visit St. Peter’s Square, climb the Matterhorn, drive at 200 miles per hour on the autobahns, photo the Stonehenge, swim the Bodensee, check the Coliseum, rent an Italian villa and risk your life in Spanish bull runs. Beat that if you can.
- Europe is a worker’s paradise (or so do envious foreigners think): 35 hour work weeks, six week vacations, numerous holidays, extensive child care such as year long birth time off for both for mother and father, generous pensions, free health care, free education to any level, powerful labor unions for Indians and Chiefs alike, employment security and much, much else. The flip side is high taxes and the almost mandatory need for two incomes in any household.
- Europe is not the liberal socialist big brother controller of all life that some expect or assume. Most of its left wingers are really centrists. Most of the right wingers are really, you guessed it, centrists. Power changes hands but basic principles and policies are quite stable. It certainly is an area with more social benefits than others. Centrist probably is a shade to the left compared to some other places. Perhaps the EU uses subsidies more than competitors like. But they sure should not be underestimated.
Europe is an old traditional and cultural society, set in its way and not all that tolerant of outsiders. Food, drink, work&social conditions, art, comforts, spying, deceit, vacations, scandals, pride and war are all items taken very seriously. The rules are set, understood and rarely changed. Consensus is a 
relative thing, “yes” does not always mean “yes”. Watch your wallet. Watch your back. You are dealing with masters. Smoke and mirrors.
What has this all got to do with Global Warming? Perhaps nothing. I do believe that if you want to understand an issue, you better look at the full picture. It always amazes me that so much, say, American policies and diplomacy ignore that simple rule. You really cannot successfully project your own ideas and expectations on others, especially not mature and sophisticated countries. It is rude and not appreciated. History and age old relations will impact the future and how disasters, such as Iraqi wars and Global Warming, are handled. Who will be the friend, who will be the foe and why?
Energy Facts and Figures
The EU imports 82% of its oil and 57% of its natural gas. Russia is a major supplier, not viewed as reliable after several supply shutdowns. The Mideast provides the rest of imports. The UK, Germany and Poland possess and use major coal resources; the UK, Netherlands and Norway benefit from North Sea oil and gas. Romania has oil fields dating back to before WWII, once the prized conquest of Hitler but now in steep decline.
The EU and the individual states have longstanding policies on energy, conservation and alternative sources. The EU stretches from midnight sun Arctic to the Mediterranean sub tropics. Southern 
Europe countries have close ties to the Mideast and North Africa going back thousands of years of war, conquest, terrorism, jihads, crusades, deceits and occasional peace. Mid and Northern Europe, with equally long histories of conflict and competition, mixes oil and gas producers with those of almost no energy resources. Northern Europe requires huge resources to combat frozen winters. Southern Europe has far less such need and will need even less as Global Warming continues.
Latitude wise, the northern tip of Europe (the North Cape) is the equivalence of mid Greenland, passes through the Baffin Island and continues well north of Prudhoe Bay and through the northern part of the Siberian tundra. The southern tip of Gibraltar is the same latitude as the Carolinas, San Francisco and Japan. Climate wise, the Gulf stream pushes that northern tip much further south to maybe Newfoundland and the southern tip to Florida. Europe also have east-west differences – the landlocked east is much colder than the coastal west. The point is that a common energy policy has to cover vastly different needs that are not present anywhere else.
Moreover, local conditions have an impact on energy use. In Scandinavia with a large forest product industry, process energy from pulp mills heat nearby homes. Landlords’ heating or cooling obligation of apartments is often mandated in law. Houses, appliances, heaters, machinery and workplaces all are subject to very tight energy conservation standards, in particular in the north. “Green” bulbs are mandated in some areas. Single pane windows are long gone as are, often, double panes. The EU 
sponsors both individual and commercial driver training for lower mileage under the name Eco driving (shift appropriately, maintain steady speed, decelerate smoothly with minimum braking, use conservative RPM (2,000-2,500) and ensure well maintained engines and tires).
Most energy prices in Europe are much higher than elsewhere because governments want to control and reduce demand while encouraging conservation. For instance, the high gas prices, roughly twice those in the US, are caused by high taxes. Not surprisingly, cars are more efficient and overall energy use is relatively low, growing far slower than in, say, the US or China. European energy use per unit of economic activity is 30% lower than in the US, 70% lower than in Russia and 85% below that of OPEC.
Offsetting the high taxes, subsidies impact areas such as maintaining uneconomical coal mining, subsidizing lower income families, controlling energy prices for different industries such as airlines and promoting various schemes for renewable energy. Subsidies are recognized as inefficiently maintaining status quo but are still used extensively. 
Overall European energy production stagnated in the mid 1980s while demand increased by 17% causing rising dependence on foreign sources. The demand increase is well below the world average of 44%. Demand in individual countries varied from an increase of 104% in Ireland to -1% in Germany (the West Germany number is much higher – the decline is due to East Germany shutdowns). The former East Bloc countries typically reduced demand by 15-40% as their antiquated industries collapsed after the Warsaw Pact and the USSR disappeared.
Regardless of all the ifs and buts, subsidies and taxes, driver training and general rhetoric, Europe depends on expensive, non renewable, fossil energy just like the rest of the world. Europe emits frightful amounts of GHGs. Europe’s use of carbon energy is the same as or only slightly below that of other comparable regions. They are a little bit more efficient in the generation of electricity due mostly to efficient hydro and nuclear power generation. They use less air conditioners. More importantly, they do recognize there is an energy problem present called Global Warming.
The Flawed Kyoto Protocol
Please click on the link in the heading above for basic information on the Kyoto Protocol. Use the back button to return here. 
CO2 emissions from fossil fuels in Europe have been stable since 1980, neither up nor down. If you exclude the Eastern Europeans with their sorry, dead industries, there was a slight increase. Compare that to a world wide increase of 48%, a 224% increase in China and 271% in India.
By comparison, Europe is doing well but do not approach the goals of the Kyoto Protocol or those suggested by the Stern Report, calling for significant reductions, not stabilization. But the caps mandated by the Kyoto Protocol are dim at best. Many industries are below targets without doing a thing. Others face impossible odds. 
From what I can see, the EU is not close to reaching its 8% reduction target by 2010. Mysteriously, the UN applauds Europe is on track. Here is some evidence: The Eastern Europe countries will be below targets. The UK, Sweden and Germany (very much maybe) might end up on target. Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Greece, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal and Spain are forecasted not to reach the mandated targets. Germany is facing more stringent caps (six percent lower than before) after a recent EU decision.
Europe is determined to tackle Global Warming their way. Here are some statements from leaders following the publication of the Paris IPCC report:
- Jacques Chirac, President of France, hosted the meeting in Paris. He, on the last day, promoted his own idea to create a new agency handling Global Warming in a manner more to his liking – partly a forum to insult the US, it seems. 45 nations, such as Algeria, Ecuador, Cambodia, Vanuatu, Seychelles, Gabon and Burundi apparently responded favorably to his proposal although its mission remains completely unclear. The UN responded that organizational changes are less important than actual results.
- The Italian PM wants urgent global carbon taxes and promotes his own ideas of a new UN organization for Global Warming (see point above).
- The new Conservative PM of Sweden declared that Swedish emissions are already so tiny that no further action was required but offered to send its compliance money to China. Sweden seems to have flip-flopped by pushing for mandatory reductions of 30% rather than 20%.
- German Chancellor Merkel’s government, which holds the EU’s rotating presidency, has threatened to block an EU attempt to impose a general emission reduction on the auto sector, insisting the size of cars must be taken into consideration. Apparently this issue is resolved in favor of the German auto industry.
- EU Environment Commissioner Stavros Dimas called on Germany — Europe’s largest economy — to put more efforts behind its promises to combat climate change, saying the nation had failed so far to take a leading role in fighting global warming. Germany apparently is accepting 6% lower caps.
- Czech president Vaclav Klaus criticized the UN panel on global warming, claiming that it was a political authority without any scientific basis. “These are politicized scientists who arrive there with one-sided opinion and assignment,” he told interviewers. “Each serious person and scientist says that global warming is a myth.”
I’d say Europe is playing its age old game of deception and egotism. Yet not quite: in late February 2007, the EU made public a plan amounting to serious CO2 emission reductions, such as 20% by 2020 compared to the 1990 levels or 30% if non-EU countries, notably the US, followed the lead. This is an important step if indeed it is based on real commitment. Some view the proposal simply as a bargaining chip in the face of an updated Kyoto Protocol going beyond the current limit of 2012. Europe is devious.
The Corrupting Carbon Credits
Please click on the link in the heading above for basic information on Carbon Credits – CERs. Use the 
back button to return here.
The European Emission Scheme is Europe’s primary trading market for carbon credits. It is geared to trade “Allowances” as its primary unit, although CERs are also traded. An “Allowance” is a somewhat different concept than “CER”. Allowances are allocated to an EU country or a business subject to a cap on how much GHG that entity can emit. If the entity emit less then the balance may traded. Emit more and allowances can be bought.
A CER, on the other hand, is associated with a specific investment elsewhere, preferably in a less developed country, that reduces GHGs. CERs are associated with Annex 1 and Non Annex 1 countries as opposed to the EU alone. Checks and balances hopefully ensure that emission reductions are not double counted. Although being two different concepts, Allowances and CERs are interchangeable in the marketplace.
The current CER system is corrupt. There simply are too few controls, too many loop holes and many inequitable traps. The Kyoto Protocol and its dualism of Annex 1 and Non Annex 1 is the root of the problem. But even so, carbon trading in CERs or allowances if used right can be very 
beneficial. Here’s how:
Technology exists today to drastically reduce carbon emissions. Two examples from the energy sector: Build second generation power plants that emit far less CO2. Capture CO2 emissions from older power plants and store them in obsolete oil or gas fields (CCS for Carbon Capture and Storage). In both cases, the entity receives allowances in accordance to the reduced emissions. Use the allowances to pay for the investment required. Calculations show that this approach could be enormously profitable.
There is nothing mysterious about the idea. A Cap and Trade system is supposed to work that way. The CER as well as the Allowance system certainly support schemes like this. The problem is the instability of the trading market both in terms of 1) its extreme volatility and immaturity, 2) uncertainty about what the next version of the Kyoto Protocol brings. Investors require some form of Government level guarantees and protection. So far that has not happened although sought for in several EU countries. The UK is a front runner both in the technology and in Government involvement.
It is, of course, hard to justify any investment where part or all of the return is in the form of CERs or Allowances. The price of allowances sold by the Emissions Scheme is now $1.70 compared to $27 on year ago. That’s a drop of 94%. Not only that, the European Emission Scheme is not a 
permanent organization, it is a temporary trial for a possible world wide system.
As always, different approaches have their moment in the spot light and then most disappear. Carbon taxes are perhaps the most persistent and potentially sensible example. Other ideas include individual carbon credit cards for purchases of carbon intensive products. Another proposal reduces corporate taxes for carbon neutral companies. Extending the concept of Carbon Allowances to individuals is yet another idea. Buy an allowance, fill up the tank.
One particular, different approach is that of the so called Deniers or Skeptics. More common in the US than in Europe, these advocates of right wing ideas deny the existence of an energy crisis and Global Warming in particular. In the US, they exercise considerable power based on similar views held by a moronic Mr. President George W. Bush. As a result, desperately needed reforms are delegated to any hiding place possible. I have yet to see any of these people, including Bush, present credible analysis or evidence of their stand. Mr. Bush claims to have spent $8 billion of climate research, all of which seem to be lost somewhere. Perhaps the three scenarios below will explain why this is such a tragedy.
Three Global Warming Scenarios A La the EU proposal
The EU proposal on the 20-30% emissions reduction across the borders of the bloc will be open to discussion within the EU in March 2007. Who knows the outcome? Let’s try a little guessing game to see what the EU proposal might bring.
My work on Global Warming led to creating various databases and a basic emission to temperature model. This model is real simple compared to the models used by the UN and others. The input is expected emission levels; the output is concentrations and temperatures based on a few simpleminded relationships.
The input relations between emissions, concentrations and temperatures are pretty well known on a macro level. The only other input is the assumed GHG life cycles and an assumption on how much emissions are tolerated by oceans, biomass and how much is counteracted by man made recovery efforts, such as bio engineering, emission storage and cleanup using scrubbers and the like.
Here are three scenarios and the base line:
- Baseline: 2007 emissions worldwide are 6.8 trillion tons CO2 equivalent. The GHG concentration is 385 PPMv. Temperature is 12 degrees Celsius, calibrated roughly to London data. Bioengineering and GHG cleanup and storage will have a significant impact in the optimistic case, then gradually less so in the medium and pessimistic cases.
- Optimistic Case: The EU proposal is successful and the EU convinces the rest of the world to follow course, leading to a world wide goal of a 30% by 2020. World emissions will decline to 4.1 trillion tons by 2050 and 3 trillion tons by 2100.
- Medium Case: The EU reduces emissions by 20% on plan. The rest of the world refused similar cutbacks but reduces the growth by 50% till 2050, then embark on a crash emission reduction scheme. World emission will rise to 15 trillion tons by 2050 and then decline to 8.5 trillion tons by 2100.
- Pessimistic Case: Neither the EU nor the world reduce emissions which will continue to grow. The recent historical growth rate of 3% per year declines to 1.8% by the end of the century. World emission will rise to 21 trillion tons by 2050 and then continue to a mind boggling 50 trillion tons by 2100.
To provide a full picture, the three cases are extrapolated till 2100 because even if emissions are reduced as indicated, inertia will prevent significant impact on temperatures as soon as 2020 or even 2050. Here are the three cases:
Let’s Dream – Optimistic Case
Let’s dream a little: the EU proposal is taken seriously, George Bush flees town, the Religious Right and neo cons disintegrate, China and India see the light and industry captains merrily buy all kinds of CO2 catchers. Miraculously, emission will nose dive, starting real soon. Today’s 6.8 trillion tons of emissions decline to 3 trillion tons by 2100. Even so, the EU goal of 30% isn’t reached till the 2040s – let’s be a little real. To continue the reality check, even with the drastic cuts, the CO2 life cycle emissions don’t peak for fifty years, or not till 2058. That’s the impact of inertia in the atmosphere mix (top graph).
Here is the good news (bottom graph): concentrations peak at about 445 PPMv compared to 385 today, well below the danger signal of 550 PPMv. Temperatures top out at less than a degree above today’s levels. By any known measure, that should keep mankind safe.
Of course, this case will not happen. It is wildly optimistic because of the politics involved. But technically and with the right incentives – it is indeed possible. Will it bankrupt the world? No way. The world would end up in far better shape than today after perhaps suffering some 
sacrifice. There are even sane arguments that there would be no suffering at all with a drastic scenario like this. The reshuffling of the economies would offer tremendous opportunities in new jobs, innovations and new markets.
Incidentally, it is not the splendid commitment by the EU to reduce its emissions that saved the day. It is not in the power of the EU alone to turn things around. Their emissions are too small in the whole world picture. Without the three big ones on board – the US, China and India, it really does not matter too much what the EU or anyone else does.
It’s a matter of simple math: the EU emits 15% of the total; reduce the 15% by the EU goal of 20%. That works out to a reduction of 3% of the world total. 3% equals less than one year 
of current growth in emissions. The sacrifice by the EU only delays the catastrophe of doing nothing by less than a year. The real value of the EU proposal is the pressure put on others to follow suit.
Returning to the viability of a drop in emissions of a huge magnitude as described. Is it possible? How could it be done? In the late sixties, warming was not the issue, cooling was. The villain at the time was not CO2 but SO2. SO2 is a cooling, highly pollutant gas that causes unpleasant things such as acid rain. Acid rain destroys forest stands and is generally bad for your health. I’ve covered the details of this in other parts of the essay – the issue was largely resolved by the US passing the Clean Air Act, principally of 1970. Here is the impact on SO2 emissions:
SO2 emissions spiked in the 1940s, no doubt as wartime production of aircraft carriers and tanks took precedence over pollution. By the mid 1950s, SO2 emissions had returned to typical levels but started a rapid growth that peaked in 1970-73. Acid rain and general pollution that actually killed people caused the passage of the Clean Air Act amendment of 1970. The CAA imposed mandatory caps on SO2 emissions and an emission trading system soon followed. Many other countries, notably the UK, following the leadership of the US under, believe it or not, Mr. Richard Nixon, arch Republican.
Several major industries were forced to invest heavily in cleanup equipment, mostly smoke stack scrubbers. It was expensive. It caused difficulties. Industry whined. Some obsolete plants closed. Did 
it cause serious damage to the economy? The answer is most assuredly no. Did it cause serious suffering? It definitely did not. Did it produce opportunities? Yes it did. Was industry in better shape afterwards? You bet.
Check out what happened. After 10 years of mandatory caps, emissions were down 17% compared to the 1970 level (upper percentages in the graph). The 1990 reduction reached 24% and today SO2 emissions are half the 1970 level. Compared to a case of continued increases in emissions at the trend rate of the 1960s (dotted yellow line in the graph), emissions were down 36% compared to such a “stay the course” trend. That extrapolates to 52% by 1990 and 76% today (lower percentages in the graph).
Those reductions are very close to what is required to eliminate the issue of Global Warming. Simply apply the same tools of caps and trade to GHGs. Question why this can’t be done. Write your 
Congressman, Senator, Deputy or Representative in the Bundestag, Congress, Senate, Sabha, Parliament, Diet, Folketing, Knesset, Eduskunta, Duma, Bundesrat, Seima, Assembly, Storting, Council, Riksdag or Politburo. Let’s get it done.
The SO2 situation is not identical to that of GHGs. Resolving GHGs and Global Warming is more complex. The SO2 issue was localized to relatively few and well defined industries. The villains of Global Warming cut through far more parts of society throughout the entire world. The SO2 spike in emissions largely lasted ten-fifteen years, not 250 years. The technology and economics are more complex in the case of Global Warming. Sadly, the political attitudes are far less proactive now than in the 1970s. Thank you George W. Bush and Mr. Dick Cheney: we’ll remember.
But no one can tell me it is impossible, crippling or unnecessary to take on and
win the battle of Global Warming. All resources needed are present and accounted for: technology, science, R&D, political tools and structures, labor, experts, bloggers, champions, stakeholders, financial resources and real life organizations exist today. It’s just a matter of lightning the fire. Then let’s get it done.
That concludes the optimistic picture. Let’s look at what could well go wrong. At the present time the “go wrong” scenarios are far more likely than the “dream” optimistic case.
Not So Good – Medium Case
The next case is perhaps more realistic but not desirable. The assumption is that the EU goes ahead with its plan of 20% reductions. The rest of the world does little for years as is not unlikely. They start to seriously reduce growth in emissions around 2025 after realizing things are not going too well. Then by 2050, things are sufficiently bad that the world embarks on a panic program to reduce emissions. Luckily, the reductions are real and fast at that point. The bad news: the life cycle emissions will not peak till almost the year 2100. The delay is very, very costly.
The good news is that the panic program will eventually work. But there is more bad news. GHG 
concentrations will peak at 670 PPMv, well above the 550 PPMv danger zone. Temperatures are up three degrees by the end of the century. Please remember the assumption of successful and major bioengineering and GHG recycling initiatives that went into this scenario. Without such a major program in place, this “medium” case will spin out of control.
The bottom line is that delaying action will put us all in harm’s way. This really is the Russian roulette case; we are running way to close to the edge. With incredible luck; we’ll make it; otherwise we won’t. Which seems simple enough?
Au Revoir, Mon Monde – Pessimistic Case
Good bye, my world. In this case, the EU may or may not valiantly reach for their goal. It won’t matter if they do or not. This case simply assumes the world emissions will continue to grow till the end of the century. Emissions grew at a 3% per year rate on most of the 1900s. That rate would
decline a bit due to local cleanups to an average of about 2% per year over the next 93 years.
Emissions will reach 60 trillion tons, about 8 times today’s level. There is no peak in life cycle emissions in sight. Emissions, man made and secondary from positive feedback loops spiral completely out of control. This is the Cataclysmic Apocalypse. At some point not very distant, this process will become unstoppable. No one knows when we pass the point of no return. Some argue we already are beyond that point. Let’s hope we still have some time – 5 years? 10?
The atmosphere’s mix of GHGs race by 1200 PPMv by the end of the century, over twice the danger zone bench mark of 550 PPMv. Temperatures, equally out of control, pass 21 degrees, 9 degrees above today. Here is just a small part of the issues this scenario would bring. The glaciers and ice packs of the Arctic and Greenland are lon
g gone by the end of the century. The big problem will be the melt down of Antarctica. Ocean levels will not rise a few meters but a few hundreds of meters.
But it will not really matter. Few of us would be alive to worry about it. The Religious Right will get their Second Coming. So will most of the rest of us. Is this Liberal Junk Science from an Alarmist Doomsayer? I sure hope so. Do I personally believe this will happen? No, I don’t. I’m just saying it CAN happen, hoping some one will wake up and take the simple steps required to stop this. It’s just a tragedy that George W. Bush has two frightening years to go. He, unfortunately, is a required part of the solution, together with his Indian and Chinese counterparts.
Next and Before
So we are at the end of this winding trail through Europe, wine, food, castles, spies, a cold war, politics, Global Warming, CERs and allowances, acid rain and who can remember what? Do you expect a clever conclusion? I don’t think there is one. Sometimes it is just the journey that counts. So I’ll leave it with that. Below are links to the first three posts in my main Global Warming essay:
- GlobalWarming:1 – Culprits, Scoundrels and Villains
- GlobalWarming:2 – Politics, Scandals, Mass Committees
- GlobalWarming:3 – Few Like It Hot
Thanks, Karl
Global Warming 3: Few Like It Hot
February 21, 2007
Soaring populations want equality, jobs, comforts, profits, food and reproduction. Surely that is quite understandable, but here’s the bill. Such desires cause copious emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs). The GHGs trap solar energy so temperatures rise. Higher temperatures feed glacial meltdowns, thawing tundra, rising oceans, failing ecosystems, extreme weather, additional GHGs 
from dwindling reservoirs, extinctions of evermore species, infectious diseases, migration and more.
250 years of irrationally exuberant excesses flung Earth from relative stability into a pandemonium never before experienced. Thirty five years ago, evidence pointed at global cooling because of uncontrolled sulphur pollution. Today the issue is the opposite due to long standing carbon imbalances. These opposing events do not cancel out as some loudly shriek. Both concerns were and are valid and point out what pandemonium means. The bloody system is way out of whack so extremes are the norm. Accept it. Act on the root issues. Skip the blabbering.
Biomass, Complexity and Balloons
Another example of complexity: as skeptics point out, higher temperatures support growth in biomass which is, then, capable of absorbing more carbon gases. Such gains partially compensate for losses due to deforestation, urbanization, infrastructure, acid rain and rotten tundra. Great, but it only works to a point – yet higher temperatures and positive feed back loops destroy the ecosystem of the biomass, reversing the trend once again. Earth’s climatic and ecological balances and checks are in such turmoil that equilibrium no longer exists. What historically was stable now accelerates or decelerates out of control.
Speaking of biomass: deforestation in 
Indonesia, Malaysia, Brazil and elsewhere hugely adds GHG emissions. Not only are the air cleaning powers of the rain forests’ photosynthetic processes (”lungs of the world”) destroyed, their storages of carbon gases are no longer contained. The stored carbons flow back into the atmosphere with nowhere to go. Higher temperatures, less storage, the spiral continues.
These little examples highlight Earth’s complex ballet of actions, reactions, feedbacks and climatic chaos. Push the climatic balloon, allegorically frying a chicken. Stab again, the balloon goes poof. Dump its remains, choking the very last chicken. Without chickens, the fox goes extinct. The nomad relying on fox fur follows into oblivion. The nomad’s herds scatter, find no food and head into the sunset. Wolves, bears, flies and eagles starve and disappear. With no natural fertilizers, the land barrens. With no crops or chickens, farmers perish. No more farm food, cities suffer. Governments fall. Social fabrics disintegrate. Chaos, riots, crime, war and illness follow. Cities die. Nations die. Earth dies. Fantasy – sure. Reality – more than you might think.
The rising GHG mix causes the warming but is not by itself dangerous – we can and will be able to breathe at any reasonable, expected carbon gas concentration. It is the slow, unstoppable rise in temperatures that causes the damage to practically our whole foundation for life. This post covers the triangle of emissions, concentrations and temperatures. These elements interact to form a deadly Cool-Aid cocktail. I’d really hate to see us turn into another Jonestown.
To All You Skeptics
With George Bush of the US, Hu Jintao of China, Manmohan Singh of India and John Howard of Australia leading the way, the skeptics have their day in the Internet spot light and in newspapers on the right side of the fence. Most of it is just silly polemic and neocon rhetoric, but this essay is an equal opinion blog (EOB). So here are their key arguments with my Italic comments:
- Thousands of independent scientists and thinkers doubt Global Warming exists. That is probably true. There are also thousands of scientists and thinkers that deny the Holocaust. Others debunk Evolution. Millions still believe there are WMD in Iraq. Every one has a right to an opinion. Taking needed policy action is a different, responsible and urgent matter.
- Climate change (warming and cooling) has been happening for millions of years. Absolutely
true. But in millions of years, there has never been as extreme warming as has already happened in the last fifty years or so. The rise in temperatures is certain to continue, breaking new records. The cooling cycles of the past are somewhat comparable in magnitude to Global Warming (although inverted) and resulted in ice ages. Ice ages drastically changed the fundamentals of life. So will Global Warming. - There is no catastrophic warming taking place. Wrong. The catastrophic effects of warming are occurring right now and are well documented. Most of us humans are not yet impacted because we live in areas far away from the immediate impact clearly seen in, for instance, Alpine and Polar areas. Check the facts, please.
- Humans are not big players in global carbon cycle. Wrong. There is too much evidence that 1) man made emissions of carbon rose dramatically to levels never seen, starting in 1750, 2) atmospheric concentrations of carbon gases rose in a similar manner as easily explained by pure physical laws and 3) temperatures followed accordingly in a clear cause-effect manner. The world isn’t flat, either.
- Scientists claimed we were heading towards an ice age just 30 years ago. That is true but remarkably effective pollution legislation broke that trend, perhaps too well. It would be nice if the same legislation, the Clean Air Act in the US, would be enacted on carbon emissions as it legally should. That would ease the dangers significantly. Mr. Bush disagrees.
- Climate change must be seen as the norm not the exception. Absolutely true. Eventually Earth will cool down and probably enter another ice age, perhaps in a few thousand years. The very real question is if mankind and most other species of today will be around to face that particular issue.
- We don’t have the tools to model climate accurately. I agree. Climate models are not a magic bullet and are in some cases grossly overrated. Most handle masses of data well. Many display the impact of assumptions as probabilistic scenarios. They cannot forecast the future accurately. There is a big distinction between “forecasts” and “scenarios”.
No doubt this discussion will continue and not end till only one human is left. There is nothing wrong with that. The challenge is to not let such differences delay urgent actions till it is too late. Not only is the problem made by man, the solution must come from man made too.
About the Essay and Its Eight Parts
I split the essay into eight posts because of its size. Click here for more details on each post.
- The first post examines the basic reasons why we ended up in this dreadful mess.
- The second post covers the political and UN scene.
- The third post deals with rising temperatures.
- The fourth post bares secrets about the forecasting business.
- The fifth post explains the contribution of rising populations to the problem.
- The sixth post discloses public and not so public opinions on Global Warming
- The seventh post looks at ill effects caused, right now, by Global Warming.
- The eighth post finishes up with a view of possible solutions.
Table of Contents
There is an elaborate link and TOC (Table of Content) system to help you get around the mass of material in this essay of eight posts. Use it to find what is of your most immediate interest. Just above, there is a TOC button that lets you enter the navigation system. Enjoy.
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- GlobalWarming:1 – Culprits, Scoundrels and Villains
- GlobalWarming:2 – Politics, Scandals, Mass Committees
- This Post: GlobalWarming:3 – Few Like It Hot
- GlobalWarming:4 – Disastrous Disaster Forecasts
- GlobalWarming:5 – Just Too Many Of You
- GlobalWarming:6 – Lies, Madness and Some Truth
- GlobalWarming:7 – Terrifying Evidence
- GlobalWarming:8 – Cataclysmic Apocalypse?
Odes, Ballads, Songs and Arias
This essay contains real life mini stories usually about small, even insignificant effects of Global Warming. The aim is to make you consider reality, survival, pain and your own future. I cite simple stories about how some of us (humans, animals, plants, oceans and everything else) are already in, or cause, deep trouble. Here are links to the various little puzzle pieces:
- Allegro to “There Ain’t No Global Warming”
- Adagio to the Krill
- Mountain Top Chorale
- Tiger in Your Tank Two Step
- I Ain’t Seein’ Nuttin’ Strut
- Farming Greenland Fiesta
- Ballad of the Lemmings
- Carol to Failures
- Ode to an Ancient Past
- Cacophony of a President
- Tale of the River
- Northeast Song
- Chant for the Confused
- Hymn to the North
- Parchment Míddjarn
- Anthem to the Oceans
- Aria for the Polar Bear
Images in this essay
The photos in this essay pay tributes to the politicians of the world. After all, they are the ones who are supposed to get us out of this mess. So I thought perhaps a little support from this blog might make them change their minds and actually make some difficult but constructive decisions. Of course, I don’t want the tributes to look like unethical bribes, so perhaps a few of the photos are just a tad impolite. Perhaps others show events or persons our ruling class would rather forget.
I could not resist a few shots from that old classic movie “Some Like it Hot”. I produced the factual graphs from my own databases, combining data from many sources.
This blog, its design, text content (except quotes from others) and my own images and graphs are copyright © Leading Design, Inc 2006-2007. All Rights Reserved. I make absolutely no claims on images or quotes from other sources.
Odes and Ballads – I Ain’t Seein’ Nuttin’ Strut
The Northern Hemisphere is in deep winter at the moment. The Summary Part 1 of IPCC Global Warming Report is just out, predicting dire consequences of hot weather. Some people have a tough time seeing warmer climate as their butts freeze off. Others think cool weather means there is no Global Warming. A few still enjoy denouncing science for the hell of it. Let’s listen to the views of the doubters in the “I Ain’t Seen Nothin’ Strut”. Quotes are from all over:
“Hey, Al Gore: this global warming is killing me. It’s practically 10 degrees, and dropping.”; “Gee…must be global warming! My water pipes frozen for the first time in 22 years where I live in California, gee…must be global warming!”
Man made global warming is junk science propounded by anti capitalists/ socialists and Marxists with the sole purpose of attacking big businesses — that’s ALL it is. There is no substantive proof to support their claim, there never has been and there isn’t any now. It is plain old fear mongering.
Where has Global Warming been hiding this week? Certainly he is not at the bottom of my woodpile because I have burned so much fuel I can almost see down to bare ground. I worried that Global Warming was stuck somewhere in a Buffalo, N.Y., blizzard, but saw no sign of him on the news clips from that snowbound part of the country.
Global Warming is a delusion that requires nothing less than rehab. The media have almost completely lost contact with reality. They don’t even know that they are embarrassing themselves by passing off New Age drivel as science.
These [pro Global Warming] political guys have axes to grind in the weather thing and what some say will be needed to avoid climate catastrophe. Among them are official folks who seek mainly to choke down the productivity of the United States. Folks like the Chinese, the Indians, and other relatively poorer countries have huge stakes in getting bigger pieces of the world economic pie.
That [Global Warming] is garbage. Brave, knowledgeable voices are raised in dissent, but the scientific snobs and know-it-alls in the media ignore them. With their superior noses raised in the air, they deny what common sense tells us all every day — that the world is flat. But get this: A bunch of kooks in white jackets recently released another report [IPCC 2007] that said our flat Earth is the subject of “global warming,” which, of course, is nonsense.
[Global Warming] is not a coordinated conspiracy but a fashion, in which self-interest and ideology combine and green activists, politicians and journalists help each other to get more funding, more sensational stories and more enemies to blame.
Czech president Vaclav Klaus criticized the UN panel on global warming, claiming that it was a political authority without any scientific basis. “These are politicized scientists who arrive there with one-sided opinion and assignment,” he told interviewers. “Each serious person and scientist says that global warming is a myth.”
To many, the dire implications of last summer’s blistering high temperatures seemed irrefutable, at least until the record setting lows of this winter. The inarguably “conclusive” proof offered by those who claim the planet is getting steadily warmer has borne little or no repeatable evidence of a scientifically established pattern.
The “Ain’t Seein’ Nuttin’ Strut” explains the errors of the Axes-to-Grind Snobs, Liberal Kooks, Know-it-All New-Agers, Superior-Nose Socialists, Junk Scientists, Fashion Marxists, Politicized Scientists, Conspirator One-Siders, Self-Interest Activists, World-Is-Flat Sensationalists and Delusional Straight-Jackets.
Here are more characteristics of Global Warming scientists and believers from allegedly serious sources: Flat Earthers, Control Freaks, Population Cullers, Global Warming Charlatans, Fascists, Self-appointed Cultural Kingpins, Do-Gooders, Vile Propagandistic Personality Attackers, Force Feeding Dogmatists, Grant Seeking Automatons, Doomsayers, Brainwashing Repeaters, Fear Mongers, Intellectually Spayed Cheerleaders, Whiners and Whimperers, Lunatic Lefties and Wing Nuts, Bush-Haters (aka, sore losers), Tree-hugging Maniacs, Loony Liberal Leftists, Liberal Environmentalist Whackos, Parallel Universe Frolickers, Crusading Alarmists, Hysteria Scientists, Liars and Propagandists.
Quite a mouthful, isn’t it. Constructive debate is always good and very much appreciated. One has to admire the innovative control of the English language by these quite expressive skeptics. It would be nice if they spent a bit of time on actual analysis proving their stand rather than on reinventing the English language. Paranoia, anyone? Last gasp, perhaps? Damn the Torpedoes, Custer’s Last Stand, Hold the Alamo? 
Ellen Goodman of the Boston Globe compared the Global Warming Deniers to Holocaust Deniers. Perhaps the Skeptics viewed the above descriptions as a way to pay the Liberal Kook Fascists back for that clear and present insult. Does it make a difference that poor Ellen is outnumbered at least forty to one, given the little sample above? Are we now even and perhaps able to become adults?
I do agree with conservative commentators that comparing the Holocaust with Global Warming is not real accurate. For one thing, Global Warming most likely will indiscriminately kill far more people than the Holocaust did.
Now, how come January was ridiculously hot, February turned out colder than hell and most of Jetblue’s east coast airplanes seem parked under five feet of snow? What about the “temperatures that are up a measly 0.6 degrees in 100 years”? Why should we care about that Global Warming nonsense?
Confusing Trends, Cycles And Useless Tales
The first post in this series, GlobalWarming:1, discussed the basic features of carbon gas emissions 
and concentrations. Mankind’s eternal thirst for better lives drove up emissions from the energy production that allows us jobs, transportation, lots of food and comfortable homes. Equatorial less developed regions busily mow down their forests to earn timber cash and farm land. The end result is unprecedented levels of carbon concentrations and higher temperatures. Signs and evidence of Global Warming ill effects abound world wide.
It’s time to be specific about how temperatures, emissions and concentrations interact in their intricate play that has such a drastic effect on climates and, ultimately, our way of life.
Pools, Reservoirs and Cycles
GHGs are crucial to our survival. Eliminate the atmospheric concentration of these gases and we will 
freeze to death very quickly. It would lead to a catastrophic drop in temperatures of 20-30 degrees, causing another very major, final ice age. But that is not what we need to deal with. The risk of such a drastic cooling disaster is quite remote at this time.
Balance is the key. Either too much or too little carbon in the atmosphere spells disaster. That balance has been maintained naturally for millions of years with plenty of up and down cycles. Our problem is that humans decided to upset that natural balance by its spewing out unnatural amounts of GHGs. We are now out of balance.
Let’s use a metaphor for a minute to illustrate emissions of gases and the resulting concentrations. Imagine a water hose. Turn the hose on and point the stream into your pool. It will take quite some time before the water level in the pool increases significantly. The pool may have a drain. That drain offsets the inflow of water 
from the hose.
Global Warming works the same way. The difference is that, first, the pool is very large – all the oceans, atmosphere and biomass. Second, we are not dealing with a single garden hose: there are thousands of high volume fire hoses spewing out vast volumes. Third, the number of fire hoses is increasing rapidly. Fourth, the drain is at or close to capacity. Even turning off the hoses will not stop the rising trend because of the system’s inertia.
The “Draining Reservoir” oceans serve as a huge depository for carbon, amounting to 36 TERATONNES. That’s 36 thousand billion metric tons. The atmosphere contains 0.8 teratonnes and biomass stores 1.9 teratonnes. Oceanic and some biomass carbons are freely exchanged with the 
atmosphere in a complex balancing act.
The balanced carbon cycle says: Start: emit gases, man made or natural, into the atmosphere. Deposit some in the oceans. Deposit more in biomass. Balance the atmosphere gas mix with the deposits so that the inflow and reflected outflow of Sun energy maintains a steady, life supporting climate. Go back to Start, for ever.
The out-of-balance carbon cycle says: Start: emit too much gases, man made or natural, into the atmosphere. Deposit some, but not enough in the oceans. Deposit more, but not enough in biomass. Watch how the inflow and reflected outflow of Sun energy goes out of balance – too much energy remains on Earth. See temperatures go up, leading to more carbon emissions. Witness how the ecosystems break down. Go back to Start, till the “positive feedback” catastrophe is final. Then really start over again. New life forms will eventually evolve.
Uppers and Downers Climate Style
Some argue that Global Warming is a cyclic, self correcting phenomenon that needs no interference by humans. Such arguments refer to “while the 2005 hurricane season was bad, the 2006 season came in far less severely than predicted” or “while January 2007 was warmer than expected, February is colder”. Others observe that the Middle Ages were warmer than normal followed by a mini ice age in the 1700s, neither being explained by greenhouse gases. So what’s up?
A cyclic pattern oscillates around a trend. In climates and other environments, the cyclic components usually vary far more than changes to the trend. Climate trends typically change very, very slowly or are even stationary compared to other familiar trends. Temperatures may be up less than 1 degree while, say, GNP is up 2000% over some period of time. Your weight is probably up from 1500% to 4000% from the day you were borne, while temperature levels are up a degree or less in your life time. Yet even minuscule changes in climate trends cause massive changes to the environment. Sudden changes to stable trends are truly a reason for concern.
Ideally, we’d like our climate trends to be flat, not changing up or down from a natural equilibrium. Cyclics best be minimal with no extremes. Today, such ideal conditions are not present. They never really have been consistently in effect.
The analysis of Global Warming is all about judgment and probabilities. There is no certainty as is obvious from the low quality of day-to-day weather forecasting. It is a given that many answers are possible. Some answers are more probable than others or are more logical. Other views are more responsible than the opposing rhetoric. Sadly, many published views are plain wrong, irresponsible, obstinate, reactionary or overly liberal and much else ad infinitum.
Is This Natural?
Several layers of cyclic short and long term patterns apply to climates. Longer term deviations, such as 10,000 to 100,000 years of ice ages were typically associated with deviations of about six degrees Celsius below the temperature trend.
Over the past 2,000 years, longer term up/down variations in temperatures did not exceed 0.15 degrees prior to the current, major run-up of a degree or so. Short term day-to-day, day-to-night or, at least, season-to-season temperature variations are as large as 40 degrees Celsius, depending, of course, on where you live.
Some cyclic climate variations are totally independent of GHGs as emitted by human activity, nature, 
underwater reservoirs or what have you. They may be caused by sun energy variations, changes in Earth’s rotation or even shape, cosmic rays, atmosphere water content (including clouds) or the near randomness of major volcanic activity or meteors hitting us at some probable interval.
Day-to-day or month-to-month cyclic weather patterns are not well understood at all. Mid or longer term cyclic patterns are equally mysterious, no matter how big your computer is. Still, you can consider probabilities. Limited as our overall understanding is, there is a body of empirical evidence we can rely on, reducing uncertainty considerably.
For instance, the Middle Age warming followed by the mini ice age is not explained by variations in GHGs. Nor are short term events such as the strength or frequency of hurricanes in one particular season. The eruptions of the Mount Tambora, Krakatoa and Mount Pinatubo volcanoes caused cooling worldwide for several years, unrelated to man made emissions. Yet, the explosive rise in man made GHG emissions in the last 250 years very clearly caused a significant part of the increase in temperatures.
Disbelievers argue we are in a natural cycle and that the temperature will peak and start declining real soon without the need for humans to interfere or change their habits. Two points are in order.
First, going back 650,000 years, the many major temperature peaks and bottoms were not caused by humans. The downs caused ice ages. It is not clear exactly what the ups brought or how they compare to today’s Global Warming, except the magnitude was far smaller. It is known that the low temperatures likely were caused by major volcanic activity, plate tectonics and large meteor hits, followed eventually by warming as Earth struggled for, but probably overshot equilibrium.
Earth and some form of life will survive Global Warming, future Global Cooling and other horrors it encounters. It always has. Each cycle causes massive changes to the order of life and being. Species die, new ones come along. Few if any species go back to the beginning of time. Earth is 4.6 billion years old and primitive forms of life started the journey soon thereafter, successfully coping with every disaster in its way.
Mankind has been lucky enough to survive from its evolutionary beginnings about 2-8 million years ago, depending of your definition of “human”. Modern humans are 200,000 years old, truly new kids on the block. We survived the last ice age fine. Eventually, we will be as obsolete as dinosaurs. Maybe that time is now, maybe not. Spiders showed up 400 million years ago and are doing quite well today. Plants and fungi go back 500 million years. Perhaps we’ll be as lucky, most likely not.
If what we experience is a mere cyclic event, we are not close to the peak of that cycle. The typical climate cycle is from 10,000 years up to about 100,000 years. A switch to lower temperatures is nowhere in sight. The only observed temperature cycle in the last 2,000 years took 600 years to fall from peak to bottom. Earlier, temperatures rose for 1,200 years from at least year 0 and on.
We are perhaps 250 years into a warming trend. No sign points to a slowdown as it would if we approach the peak. Instead, the trend still accelerates. The current rate of increase is about 1/2 degree every twenty years. Suppose this is a natural cycle that will last, say, two hundred years. Then temperatures might peak around 3-4 degrees higher than today, allowing for some eventual slowdown in the growth trend. That is not a positive outlook.
The current, dramatic climate change is not just another natural cycle. Perhaps some part is. Unfortunately, a cyclic impact, if any, makes the situation worse, not better. If the cyclic element is real and adds several degrees to the GHG effect, we are that much closer to doomsday
.
Here is something for astronomy buffs. Check out the planet Venus. Venus atmosphere is quite different from ours. It lacks very much in oxygen. But it contains some 13,000 times as much CO2. That means Venus’ atmosphere is 97% CO2. Guess what? Venus is a very hot place where no life (in our sense) is possible. Its surface temperature is about 480 degrees Celsius (900 degrees Fahrenheit). Some call Venus a case of runaway greenhouse effect. Be warned.
Where Is that Trend Heading?
While the cyclic patterns are important, no such phenomenon beats a 650,000 year trend and how clearly that trend is broken today. For 649,750 years the average temperature was cyclic but averaged out neither going up nor going down. Some of the cyclic patterns are explained – very likely – by GHG concentrations. Other parts may be explained by different events as discussed above.
Below is a composite of several different Antarctic ice core samples, going back 650,000 years. As you’ll see later, CO2 concentrations, as measured from trapped gases in ice, are real good indicators of ancient temperatures. The graph is as accurate a picture as possible not only of CO2 levels but of temperatures.
Historically, CO2 concentrations vary from 170 to 280 PPMv around a 235 average, or a variation from the trend of 28%. Today we are a frightening, accelerating 64% above that historical average or 126% above previous lows. The several lows of 25-30% associate with ice ages lasting up to 100,000 years, completely changing life on Earth.
Today’s GHG concentration is unprecedented. What will this upward anomaly do to us when it already hit twice the historical records and is spinning out of control? Check the graph below:
Here is a somewhat technical note (skip if you like): A 150 PPMv change in the concentration leads to a temperature change of 1 degree Celsius. Thus, a 50% change in CO2 concentration results in a net temperature change of about 7%. The implied elasticity of temperatures to concentrations then is very low at 0.15. Since 1750, the CO2 concentration went from 270 to 385, up by 45%. The .15 elasticity leads to a theoretical temperature increase of a little less than 7% or, in absolute terms, about 1.0 degree, very consistent with measured data. Back to Earth!
The 650,000 year trend is clear – temperatures as well as GHG concentrations averaged out and were remarkably steady. The long term temperature trend was flat and the GHG concentration was stable at 230-235 PPMv. These steady averages are no longer valid. The current temperatures and GHG concentrations are in the order of three times more out-of-whack than ever before in the known history of close to a million years. The trend suddenly is shifting upwards due to the magnitude of current emissions and concentrations. The inertia of the system makes it almost impossible to break the continued upward shift for up to 40 years, even with the most aggressive actions to curb emissions.
The long term trends are broken and shifting. That is sure to impact climates that are unstable in the first place. The issue is that our lack of understanding of these complex relations makes it impossible to forecast exactly what will happen when, where, how and why. All we can say is that we are way out of line and the signs are bad. Our limited knowledge confirms we’re in trouble. See the Odes, Ballads and Arias of this essay for anecdotic evidence.
Man Made or Not – So What?
In the never-ending Global Warming debate, skeptics claim that while temperatures and greenhouse 
gas (GHGs) concentrations are up, the cause is not man made emissions. Or, man made GHG emissions cause only a tiny part such as 3% of the total. Hence we need not and cannot take action, nor should we try. We are not responsible, liable or guilty. Such is the stand of a skeptic.
Some of the skeptics make valid points and should not be ignored. They may possibly be right. There is nothing wrong with drawing different conclusions from the same ideas and data. Consider that while most scientists agree with Einstein’s relativity theory, others don’t. Life goes on, no big deal. No one owns or knows the answer. Unfortunately, Global Warming is an urgent issue and we must decide on a course of actions real soon. Debate is nice but results are better.
Here, I won’t rehash the basic point of whom or what causes Global Warming. That’s for other parts of these essays. The question is nearly irrelevant. Temperatures are up. Concentrations of GHGs are up. That we must deal with without the distractions of some silly blame game.
From my particular point of view, the evidence is overwhelming. Man made GHG emissions over the last 250 years are the main culprits that may eventually kill us all. The real question is not why or how temperatures are up but what the heck we do about it. Let’s run a little allegory on that theme.
The Tale of Survival and Death
The vast majority of us will die of “natural” causes, such as cancer or heart disease. There are several real life options how to deal with 
such a probability. One approach is the prevention of the diseases. Another approach is to cure those inflicted. A third option is to do nothing because the condition is “natural” and/or countermeasures are “beyond-ones-control”, “against-ones-beliefs”, “too-expensive” or perhaps “hopeless”.
Prevention of the diseases makes a lot of sense. Eat healthy food, exercise, don’t smoke, drink one glass of red wine a week but no more, munch aspirin, use green light bulbs, pray, check your prostate/breasts and/or colon regularly. Do not indulge in poor behavior such as smoking pot, burning wood, popping pills, robbing banks or watching TV. Those are good guidelines but they do not guarantee the outcome. Nothing compels anyone to follow these suggestions. In fact, few do and most never will.
Cures to the diseases become an important issue if you are inflicted with one of them. At that point, prevention becomes meaningless. It doesn’t matter if the condition is caused by our own behavior, genetics, the environment, imported oil or plain bad luck. All that matters is what you do about it. 
You’ll either pursue the third “no hope” option (below). Or you’ll engage in a fight involving many available, but expensive technologies. These technologies usually come at a personal price – they carry severe side effects, costs and are not guaranteed to work.
Many people choose the third option – throwing up their arms in despair and fade away. We all have to make decisions, no blame allowed. Some feel they have a right to lazily smoke, drink, use drugs and, when disease strikes, continue to lazily smoke, drink and use drugs. The dire side effects of curing the disease may be too overwhelming or even against religious beliefs. Procrastinators delay facing facts, going back to bed. Fools refuse to acknowledge reality and head for Las Vegas. The glove does not fit all hands. But it is wrong if this option is applied across the border.
Beat the Beast in Two Simple Steps
Global Warming is not different from the little tale above. We are inflicted with the disease of overheating temperatures, inertia and, as George W. Bush put it, an addiction to oil. Little does it matter if the problem is natural or unnatural, man made, cyclic, religious, magical, wizardly or even a partial hoax.
We know where we are. Prevention and cures are the true issues, not the hand wringing of Why or How Come. The options are exactly the same as in the little tale above; only the means are different. Here are two proactive although generic ways to deal with Global Warming. Both ways are the main subjects of this series of essays and I’ll be a lot more specific in time:
Start real preventive actions. The cancer is here in force but hopefully is not yet so irreversible that we are already lost. We must tackle the primary suspect, GHG emissions, real soon. Many well 
understood equitable options already exist. They are technically simple but hard to act on, tough to face and grim to implement. Enforcement is not a popular subject, nor are mandates. Options boil down to political willpower, leadership, mandatory limits (caps), monetary incentives (taxes and/or option trading), technical innovation, significant personal sacrifices and a lot of luck. Incidentally, the current version of the Kyoto Protocol is neither a workable solution, nor an excuse not to act.
Work on a cure. A cure means reducing current high temperatures. Some early ideas are available but difficult to apply. Scientists and engineers look at “out polluting the pollution”, shooting a few thousand giant or millions of small mirrors into space, deploying huge stand-alone scrubbers, bombing clouds, farming GHG muzzling creatures in the oceans and a few other bioengineer ideas. Prevention is much easier than finding these types of cures. If prevention fails, these ideas may be our only remaining weapons. (Perhaps Sir Richard Branson’s $25 million reward will help, as offered by the Virgin Airlines chief to whoever can suck a billion tons of carbon gases out the atmosphere. Actually, perhaps another way is to ground his and other airlines.)
The third “do nothing” option is not for most of us as the crisis pressure escalates. I don’t believe we are sufficiently fatalistic to just disappear into the eternal sunset together with our kids, grand kids and the rest of the tribe. Saying that we need not, cannot or should not take action to prevent or cure the Global Warming disease is utterly wrong for the vast majority of us. The approach is incredibly cynical and unethical. Perhaps experts such as George W. Bush and Dick Cheney can stomach it, but we peons cannot. Such a policy should not be forced on us but it may be: to date, there are no truly effective preventions or cures in sight. The political willpower certainly is not present – anywhere. Nor is personal responsibility sighted in any evident manner. The suicidal third option is in effect by 
default. That is very bad news to most of us.
Speaking of bioengineering – let’s set off a dozen obsolete B41 nuclear bombs, each of 25 mega tons, in well placed areas. Global Warming is no longer an issue due to a dust filled atmosphere. Sun energy can not find its way in and it will get real cold. How about that idea? Which continent(s) do we sacrifice? One in the North and one in the South? Perhaps Argentina and Alaska? Consider the cost – almost zero with no taxes, mandatory caps or other unpleasantness needed.
Another bioengineering possibility is an asteroid hit, perhaps a remote possibility short term but sure to happen at some point. The effect would be similar to that of the nuclear bombs, minus the radioactive fallout. A sizable asteroid can release the energy equivalent of a dozen B41 bombs. At this very time, the asteroid Apophis may hit Earth on Sunday, April 13th 2036. The probability of a hit rather than a close fly by is 1 in 45,000, or quite low. Apparently there are 
some technology ideas about how to steer the asteroid away from Earth if it is set to come too close. Perhaps that technology should be used to steer the asteroid to a hit instead?
Which leads to the point: for humans to play around with climates, by carbon emissions or nuclear bombs, is an extremely dangerous game. We stubbornly play Russian Roulette as we have for 250 years. We released the energy equivalence of many dozens of nuclear bombs into the atmosphere. It’s a good idea to stop that practice. It is exceedingly difficult to avoid the punishment. In Crime and Punishment, committing, then justifying a crime for megalomaniac reasons quickly turns into disaster and punishment. Dostoevsky knew his stuff.
The Gas to Temperature Four Step
Here is a good question. Do GHG emissions and concentrations actually impact temperatures? Let’s leave the issue of the relationship of emissions and concentrations alone. It seems to be a no-brainer that emissions cause higher concentrations. Let’s examine how concentrations interact with temperatures using the Vostok ice core samples covering 450,000 years:
Given the graph, it is real hard to discard the notion of a very close relationship between concentrations and temperatures. Some will argue that the data is not totally certain. In particular, the temperature data is uncertain and based on all kinds of assumptions. That is true but let’s leave that issue for later. Right now, we’ll assume that 
the relationship in the graph is true.
Next, what precisely is that relationship? I’ll use “elasticity” here as a measurement of how concentrations interact with temperatures. Elasticity is a term from macroeconomics: a number describing how a percent change in something results in a (different) percent change in something else. For instance, if the price of booze goes up 10%, perhaps demand for booze drops 10%. That is an elasticity of -1.0. If you add 10% more power plant capacity, then perhaps carbon emissions go up 15% (made up numbers). That is an elasticity of 1.5.
I already mentioned (remember?) that my data indicate an elasticity of 0.15 for concentrations to temperatures. That means a 10% increase in concentrations results in a 1.5% increase in temperatures. Checking that number against the Stern Report, I’m in line at the low end of that report’s elasticity range from 0.1 to 0.3. The Stern report does not use the elasticity concept but it is easy to convert from one way to the other. They say doubling GHG concentration will cause temperatures to rise 1.5-4.5 degrees. In my analysis, the doubling results in a temperature increase of 2.0-2.5 degrees, well within the lower end of the Stern range.
As skeptics would put it, what’s that junk science got to do with anything? Let’s make it real by considering the whole way from an oil field to the Arctic ice melt downs.
Oil to Air, Air to Dust
The very process of extracting oil from Earth produces GHG emissions. Once extracted, the oil is 
sent on its way in leaky pipelines, adding more emissions. It ends up at a port terminal, is loaded on a tanker with yet more leakage/emissions. Hopefully the tanker won’t run aground a la Exxon Valdez in which case we have real bad case of emissions. As the tanker moves across the oceans, it emits GHGs, burning fuel. If the journey is safe, the oil is offloaded at an oil refinery (more leaks) and converted into gasoline, heating oil and all kinds of other things. Of course, there are additional emissions at this stage. Then consider gas which is distributed to gas stations (leaks) by GHG emitting trucks, pumped into the gas station reservoir (leaks). You pump the gas into your car (smelly leaks) and drive away, with each mile adding more emissions to the poor air. Sorry, the catalytic converter on your car produces, not reduces, CO2!
In short, a ton of crude oil in the journey from its earthen origin to its final use emits plenty of GHGs. Some of those emissions end up in “carbon sinks”. Some remains in the atmosphere and adds to the existing carbon concentration. Partly because we’re running out of natural, conventional carbon sinks and mostly because we are just pouring carbon into the air, concentrations are up dramatically.
Suppose we double emissions – well within the sorry results to date. That leads to an increase in atmospheric concentrations of 5%, using my database numbers. Thus, the elasticity of emissions to concentrations is 0.05.
So here is the chain effect: Increase carbon emissions by 100%. That increases GHG concentrations in the air by 5%, which in turn increases world temperatures by 0.8% or a little more than 0.1 degree Celsius. That actually looks like good news – doubling emissions cause a tiny increase in temperatures. Not so fast, consider two pieces of bad news:
First, we tend to double emissions every 20-25 years so even a low sensitivity eventually leads to very damaging increases in temperatures. Second, the low sensitivity of emissions to temperatures works not only on the upside as shown but also on the downside. Modest drops in temperatures require huge reductions in emissions.
The analysis here is quite simpleminded and we need some refinements before we can really understand what is going on. I’ll leave the subject and return a little later.
Lead, Lag and Both
So far, all I’ve said is that there is a strong relationship between emissions, concentrations and temperatures. I have not really said that concentrations cause temperature changes or if it is the other way around. So let’s examine this issue.
Many Global Warming skeptics argue that temperature changes lead changes in concentrations over time. Thus they claim emissions are not the cause of a warmer climate. They often use the data similar to that in the 450,000 year Vostok graph above as evidence. Without trying to debunk one set of data over another, the Vostok data does not indicate that concentrations lag temperatures consistently. To me, it looks like, on the upside, concentrations are close to simultaneous with temperature changes. On the downside, it does looks like concentrations lag temperature changes. Of course, the current concern is not what happens on the downside – the concern is what happens when concentrations rise and Vostok data tells us there is no big lead or lag effect.
The fact is that emissions and concentrations both lead and lag temperatures depending on many factors. There is no question that high concentrations lead to higher temperatures. That is a well established scientific fact. However, higher temperatures also lead to more carbon emissions. For instance, frozen biomass thaws, emitting its load of previously frozen carbon gases. Melting of glaciers and sea ice reduces the reflection of excess solar energy since ground “whiteness” is darkened. Lastly, it is entirely possible that non emission factors (solar energy, clouds) start a warming trend, eventually causing carbon releases.
The interactive relationship of temperatures and emissions/concentrations is generally characterized as a “positive feedback loop”. That means that the change in one factor leads to a change in the other factor which, in turn, reinforces the change in the original factor, causing a loop that eventually can result in catastrophe. Such a feedback loop is currently in effect. Arguments that carbon emissions do not cause Global Warming are wrong, a waste of time and let’s just move on.
The Inertia Damnation
Post 1 of this essay showed the long shelf life of GHGs. The most common gas carbon dioxide’s shelf life runs from 50 to 300 years. Some gases will remain in the atmosphere up to 50,000 years, 
although in small densities. Some of the atmosphere’s current mix contains gases from prehistoric times. Small parts of the CO2 content dates back as far as the start of the industrial revolution.
The GHG concentration is a mix of the latest emissions as well as emissions of previous years. That leads to inertia in the system – it is very hard to reduce the concentrations quickly even if emissions are forced down by large amounts. Here is a graph of the life cycle (shelf life) of carbon dioxide from my analysis:
To my knowledge, there is no real data on the life cycles of GHGs. The CO2 graph above is purely “trial and error”, attempting to explain known concentrations with known emissions considering the life cycle where the shelf life and half-life are somewhat known. No doubt this methodology can be improved.
The life cycle curve above is optimistic compared to some other data – I use a half life of 67 years and most of the gas emitted in some particular year is gone (oxidized, absorbed, broken down, sequestered) after 150 years. Other data indicates a half life of 100 years and a shelf life of up to 300 years which, of course, means an even larger inertia.
The graph below shows the importance of gas life cycles. A simple scenario of drastic cuts in annual emissions (greenish line) is plotted against the effective life cycle emission levels (solid red bars), calculated from the life cycle in the graph above. The difference between the two curves is the inertia. The life cycle emissions in the atmosphere are 25 times as high as the annual emissions.
The graph’s annual emissions decline far more than is likely or probably even possible. Even so, the 
life cycle emissions (concentrations) continue up for forty more years. Then concentrations head down. There is no such thing as a rapid turn around in concentrations or temperatures. Temperatures will rise for years, no matter what is done.
Without showing details, the graph data implies an increase in concentrations to about 425 PPMv by 2047 and a rise in temperatures of less than 1 degree Celsius thanks to the huge and very steep curtailments in annual emissions. Emission cuts as pictured would enormously reduce but not eliminate the risks of serious trouble. I’ll cover scenarios like this in Post 8 of this essay.
It is in no way hopeless, unnecessary or uneconomical to cut emissions. Reducing emissions is the only currently practical way to turn the climate change around. The graph shows just how drastic the cuts must be to make a truly significant impact.
The Ice Age Flip Flop
Ice ages occurred in cycles of between 40,000 to 100,000 years. The last ice age ended 10,000 
years ago. If you are familiar with, say, Scandinavia or the Northern parts of America you may have noticed that the North side of rock formations are sloped and smooth while the South side is ragged and much steeper. That is caused by millions of tons of ice gliding over the rock surface. Today millions of people live in these areas without worrying at all about ice ages.
Going even further back, the first ice age occurred about 2 billion years ago. The most severe one happened about 700 million years ago – practically all of Earth was covered by ice. Additional ice ages date back to 450, 300, 40 and 3 million years ago.
The graph indicates six, possibly seven ice ages over the last 650,000 years. The ice age about 400,000 years ago probably did happen but the ice core data is a bit inconsistent for that particular event. The last ice ago produced ice coverage of the Northern hemisphere up to 4,000 meters thick. Ocean levels fell by 130 meters.
GHG concentrations during the ice ages dropped 28%. Today’s concentrations are 64% above the same average. Ice age temperatures dropped 6 degrees. Today’s temperatures are up only 1 degree or so but are likely to keep going up some 3-5 degrees more, bringing the total to the same magnitude as the ice age anomality.
Ice ages are associated with atmospheric and solar energy changes: cooling factors such as clouds, low atmosphere humidity, decreased levels of GHGs and reflections of solar heat from an increased snow pack. Differences in Earth’s orbit could be a factor – the orbit may be closer to or further from the sun. Other variations involve volcanic activity and meteor hits.
How are ice ages relevant to Global Warming? Ice ages happened and they were caused by the inverse of the Global Warming effects. The causes of ice ages are well within the inverse limits of the known or expected effects of Global Warming. The drastic climate changes and major upheavals of the ice ages might mirror what we will experience from Global Warming.
Ice ages caused massive changes. Large mammals disappeared as did many small ones, birds, fish and plant life. Just about everything across the range of species either suffered or flourished. Up to a quarter of all living things became extinct, replaced by others.
Currently, the largest mass extinction in 65 million years is underway. The rate of extinction is up by a factor of 10 -100 times of historical averages. No one expects this trend to reverse anytime soon. Half of all species may be gone in 100 years as a, mostly, consequence of human acts.
During the last ice age, world population was about 3 MILLION compared to today’s level of 6.5 BILLION. For each person affected by the last ice age, today 2,200 persons will suffer the inverse effects of the climate change. The space and resources needed by one person last time 
now must be shared by 2,200 people.
Certainly our resources today are far beyond those available to people during the last ice age. Some resources are not; space being one. Suppose one million people out of the three million total had to migrate to avoid being crushed under 4,000 meters of ice. Today, the equivalence is migrating 2.2 billion people out of harms way – a very tricky preposition, especially considering Earth is no bigger than before.
Our sophisticated resources work well today but are untested when places such as New York are under water. Technology is great 
when it works but is a major anchor around our necks if it doesn’t. We are exceedingly dependent on a very complex infrastructure that could easily break down. Do computers work without power? What if food cold storages become warm storages? How do we migrate out of harm’s way without fuel? You imagine the rest.
Perhaps the survival skills of our 10,000 year old forefathers and mothers far exceed ours. Ironic, isn’t it. On the other hand, there probably are 3 million of our 6.5 billion that will prove to be adaptable enough to survive almost any challenge. The question is which 3 million? Let’s just leave this speculation right here. There is no way to say what will happen 30-40-100 years down the road. But some planning would be reassuring. We are not looking at an insignificant event such as Katrina. We may deal with the equivalence of a million Katrinas. Personally, I have trouble with the idea that the Department of Homeland 
Security will be able to handle that.
Ice ages caused major changes affecting all living species. They lasted a long time. Everything indicates we are approaching extremes of, at least, the same magnitude. Extinctions are already underway. Record temperatures are pretty much locked in. The human catastrophe can easily go beyond anything experienced, ever, including during the ice ages. That’s the downside. The upside? You tell me. Change that light bulb, will you. Buy a smaller car. Do your part.
Recent Alarms and Wake Up Calls
Over the last few hundred years, CO2 concentration in the atmosphere is up about 65% compared to 
the 650,000 year trend. Temperatures are up about one degree Celsius. According to experience, the increase in carbon concentration should have upped temperatures by from .8 to 3 degrees. The actual 1.0 degree increase is at the very low end of expectations.
Flattening the emissions within a few years together with inertia in the system will add another 2-4 degrees, bringing the increase to around 3-5 degrees, not counting the effect of probable additional increases in emissions. The IPCC Report tags the range at 1-6 degrees, including various ideas about emissions. The Stern Report puts a 50% probability on an increase of more than 5 degrees.
At this stage of the analysis, a temperature increase of 5 degrees Celsius is realistic as long as substantial reductions in emission growth are achieved. I’ll be more specific in Post 8 of this essay.
Currently GHG concentration is about 385 PPMv. 550 PPMv is viewed as a critical milestone level. That level may easily be reached anywhere from 30 to 100 years from now, depending on how much and how soon emissions are cut. The worst case scenario – growth in emissions continue at the current rate of 1% per year – results in a very deadly level of over 1,000 PPMv by the end of the century and maybe 10 degrees higher temperatures. Then the ice ages with their measly 6 degree change will look like child’s play.
The three graphs below use identical data but highlights shorter and shorter time periods to demonstrate the tight relationship between concentrations and temperatures. Temperatures are measured in deviations (anomalies) from a flat long term trend; concentrations are actually measured levels. The impact of concentrations on temperatures is close to simultaneous and consistent with the sensitivity and elasticity data discussed earlier.
The graphs are consistent and straight forward with the exception of the medieval warming and the mini ice age of the 1700s, neither of which were explained by GHG emissions going up or down. The medieval warming and the mini ice age were really quite minor effects – the temperature anomaly was no larger than .15 degrees Celsius. Today’s anomaly is .8 degrees, five times as much.
Troubles in Climate Land
When dealing with a reluctant world wide audience and trying to make a complex point, you better have good support for your arguments. If not, your opponents will find ways to crucify you. Actually, even if your data is flawless, the opposition will find ways to crucify you. But credible data helps a lot in that battle. Here are a few points about Global Warming data.
Ice Cores, Thermometers and Ancient Leaves
To get the best view of today’s Global Warming, it is necessary to understand how temperatures interact with GHGs. Such analysis means going back in time much further than humans, not to mention measurement devices, existed. It is common to consider data millions of years old. There 
are calculations of temperatures going back 2.7 billion years.
Galileo, among others, invented a rudimentary thermometer in the 1500s. The first Mercury versions showed up in the 1700s. In the 1800s, people such as the weather man realized this tool was useful for analytical purposes. That’s when actual measurements of temperatures started to be recorded. Today, there are thousands of stations providing precise measurements in infinite detail.
However, a precise set of thermometers does not mean that you have good global data. Just take a simple issue such as coordinated temperature measures globally. Coordinated might mean that the measures are taken at the same GMT time. Then some temperatures are taken in the middle of cold nights as opposed to those taken where it is day. So to correct that, why not use local time? Then we are no longer coordinated, the time difference may be up to 12 hours. Is it the chicken or the egg? Top that off with thermometer calibration, sensitivity and handling issues, human factors, measurement location relative to heat emitting cities and industry…. and so on. Measuring things is difficult and a complete science in itself.
This graph illustrates how different ways of looking at the same thing result in quite different data series. Without diving into details, I use a composite (yellow in the graph) of many sources to arrive at “my” temperature data. Typically, that composite is a simple average. 
Measuring atmospheric gas content goes back to the early 1800s. Organized recordings of GHG emissions or concentration started in the early 1950s. Today, thousands of stations around the globe provide an extremely detailed look at the current status but not long term historical levels. To make this mass of raw data useful, assumptions are made so computers can consolidate different measuring devices and techniques and all kinds of other differences between stations.
For long term data, ice cores from Antarctica provide excellent views into past atmospheric conditions. The most fabulous set of cores come from the Russian Vostok station, providing information going back up to 400,000 years, covering four ice ages. The Taylor Dome also provides vital information. The Europeans maintain several ice core stations under their EPICA program with cores going back up to 900,000 years. Other stations provide additional data.
An ice core is simply a sample of ice collected from a certain depth in the continental Antarctic ice 
shelf or wherever there is ancient ice present. The idea is that the deeper you drill, the older the retrieved sample is. To make this useful, you need to translate depth of the sample to physical time using precise assumptions. Then you analyze the core sample and find traces of the air as prevalent at the estimated physical time, typically in air bubbles. A few assumptions lead to an estimate of, say, CO2 concentrations for that point in time. Then another set of assumptions lead to an estimated temperature for that period of time, often based on the estimated CO2 level.
The ice core estimates are subject to lots of assumptions and limitations. They are effective in 
analyzing thousands of years of data but cannot tell the status of, say, last July 4th. For recent data, the Mauna Lao Observatory on Hawaii and many other stations measure the actual air content.
Additional temperature estimates rely on old tree age rings – a wider ring means faster growth for the tree due to warmer temperature and the reverse. Other indirect, arbitrary clues come from ancient leaf deposits thousands of meters below surface, rocks, historical harvest reports and recorded annual events such as thawing of snow, spring/fall signs, severity of winters and summer heat waves and much else. Needless to say, these measurements are not precise and depend on subjective interpretation.
Here is the point. Measuring anything is far more complex than most of us assume. All kinds of assumptions and other guesswork are involved. That is true today and it is certainly true going back a few million years. There will always be controversy about the data supporting – or not – a galvanizing issue such as Global Warming.
Blame the Other Guy
Several criticizers of the Stern and UN reports make a rather severe accusation that the reports use falsified historical data to fit their politic, biased view better than the original data. Here is the “hockey stick” argument:
According to the critique, the UN in 1996 published a graph of temperature changes that showed a peak in the middle age. A later graph published in 2001 apparently did not show that peak, making today’s increase that much more alarming. The critique explained how the UN falsified the data and accuses the UN of doing it on a regular basis. The skeptics declare Global Warming is junk science.
Others claim historical data on carbon concentrations is biased downwards by unscrupulous researchers to exaggerate the apparent severity of current levels. Yet others argue that the data on man made emissions relative to natural emissions is utterly wrong and misleading.
Who can tell? Sometimes data is “massaged” to make “communication clearer”. More likely, the data is revised as research provides better measurement techniques. There were probably some fairly innocent reasons to change the UN data, if indeed it was changed. What bothers me is that rarely can I see the basis for the complaints in the data I use which typically is a composite of the data from several sources. All I can do is to place my bet and move on.
Data on, in particular, long term global trends usually must be corrected over time. Measurements from different origins are calibrated and spliced using ever improving algorithms as technology evolves. See this:
Behind the emerging consensus on climate change lie more than 150 years of slow, painful negotiations over global standards for measuring, recording, and communicating about the weather.
[This example] illustrates the complex combination of social and technical problems that affect the implementation of standards. The consequences for the detection of climatic change can be profound.
Criticizing the validity of data used in scientific studies is as common as the studies themselves. Sometimes the critique is well founded, sometimes not. Occasionally a doomed scientist is caught flat footed while trying to increase grants based on sensational results. In other cases, 
the fraud is institutionalized. Medical research, biotech and the drug industry each has a history of abuses.
In many cases the complaint is just a ploy by competitors or conflicting interests to divert attention. The tobacco industry did it for decenniums. So does the oil industry, more recently. The White House also does it as a matter of policy.
In the case of Global Warming, accusations of wrong assumptions and inaccurate data are common. The vast majority of scientists still back the overall notion we do have a serious problem. I’ll go with that majority. You can’t dismiss thousands of pieces of evidence on the basis of one or two instances of possibly incorrect data.
Devious Computers and Bad Thinking
This one is easy. No, computers and the complex climate models are not reliable in any sense of the word. If you think differently, be my guest. I’ve spent a fair part of this essay trashing low quality forecasting for what I believe are good reasons. Astonishing amounts of bad analysis and inaccurate forecasts get their moment of fame for no good reason – more in the next post of this essay.
Having said that, many of the major climate models are built by very smart people with huge budgets subject to intense competition and extreme scrutiny. These people know the limitations and understand much of the complex theories. They realize that the results depend on a mix of real and imagined input data and assumptions. They understand the output is just a probabilistic and essentially subjective indicator, not a certain, unbiased or undisputable fact.
The problems of even the best of forecasting and complex models usually start when results are published and get into the hands of those that do not understand the limitations. That includes the skeptical amateurs, many journalists and commentators, politicians, bloggers and the general public.
You need a mechanism for analyzing masses of diverse, incomprehensible data. The crucial part is realizing these models are just tools and part of a larger picture involving thinking rather than blindly accepting a mechanical view provided by Big Brother.
What on Earth Does It Mean?
First, Are Global Warming uppers, downers, reservoirs and trends related? Answer: By any 
statistical standard, the relationships of emissions, concentrations and temperatures are very, very strong. The relationships are consistent across the border and with plain basic theory. However, historical Global Warming relations face a breakdown as we are already far outside anything experienced in modern or much of ancient times.
Second, is the temperature rise consistent with historical patterns – is it simply a natural cyclical matter of limited, temporary importance? Answer: The current climate pattern is without modern historical precedent and may become as severe as that of the ice ages, inversed. The ice ages produced enormous upheavals on the few living at the time. Given the size of today’s populations, the current issue is far more severe than that of the ice ages. The medieval temperature spike was far smaller than what we experience today.
Third, what is the impact of leads, lags and inertia? Answer: Inertia makes it impossible to quickly reverse trends. The next fifty years will see continued increases in temperatures, no matter what we do. Still, reducing carbon emission is just about the only weapon we have. Leads and lags are interesting phenomena but not real important.
Fourth, is the rise caused by non-human events such as a natural increase in CO2 or perhaps the natural and temporary effects such as solar activity? Answer: Essentially, who cares? The only effect of a possible cyclic pattern is to make matters that much worse, not better.
Fifth, is the data reliable? Some accuse the UN of falsifying historical data to make its points more plausible. Answer: I don’t know. I doubt the UN deliberately is misleading the world using fraud. That would simply be too risky. Possibly there is some incompetence that most likely will be corrected over time.
Sixth, much of the climatic research relies on high speed computers and complex models that have never been accurate in the layman’s sense, thereby casting doubts on any conclusions. Answer: This concern is valid. Never expect black boxes to make believable decisions for you. They are only tools assisting old-fashioned thinking.
The scientific analyses of Global Warming as published in the UN IPCC report, in the Stern report and, for that matter, right here are pretty much correct. It makes no sense arguing about the basic conclusions. The Why and Who are perhaps interesting issues for the history books but the only real thing that counts now is What To Do and 
How To Do It Now.
Skeptics keep rambling the same paranoid, useless monkey wrench points over and over, lacking the ability to listen and/or move on. Why Global Warming is a left/right issue is beyond comprehension. In what way is a rise in temperatures associated with liberal beliefs? Why is the denial of such a trend a corner post in US conservative policy, absurdly denying simple facts and needlessly going against the world? The neocon obstructions appear as foolish and random as is the blind support of a meaningless, lost war in Iraq.
Just keep this in mind: we are already experiencing the harsh impacts from Global Warming. That is beyond dispute. Existing emissions, no matter what we do, will drive up temperatures for at least the next fifty years. If it makes you feel better, blame UFOs, cosmic rays, sun spots, Al Gore, terrorists, Ralph Nader, leaky borders, gay marriage, politicized scientist propeller heads or yours truly. It makes no difference. Just please consider taking action.
Fact: if we stay on today’s horrifying growth pattern, we are sure to experience a catastrophic outcome. The world in fifty years will be very different from today without doubt. The state of the world in seventy five years depends on how we act now. How old will your grand kids be? What about your great grand kids?
Odes and Ballads – Farming Greenland Fiesta
Here we go again. “Farming Greenland Fiesta” is a little piece about some Greenlanders enjoying the effects of Global Warming. As always, good news to some is bad news to others. This event may be good for a few in a place far away from most of us. Sadly, millions may be fleeing rising oceans while the Greenlanders happily plant their broccoli and tend their cows (Source: here):
Known for its massive ice sheets, Greenland is feeling the effects of global warming as rising temperatures have expanded the island’s growing season and crops are flourishing. For the first time in hundreds of years, it has become possible to raise cattle and start dairy farms. There are many reasons for this agricultural boom, the most important being a rise in temperature.
Ferdinand Egede would be a perfectly normal farmer if it weren’t for that loud cracking noise. Wearing a plaid lumberjack shirt and overalls, he hurries through the precise rows of his potato field, beads of sweat running down his forehead.
The cracking noise has turned into a roar. What’s happening in the sea below Egede’s fields doesn’t square well with what one would normally associate with rural life. The sound is that of an iceberg breaking apart, with pieces of it tumbling into the foaming sea.
He pulled 20 tons of potatoes from the earth last summer, and his harvests have been growing larger each year. “It’s already staying warm until November now,” says Egede. And if this is what faraway scientists call the greenhouse effect, it’s certainly a welcome phenomenon, as far as Egede as concerned.
For farmer Egede, the only evidence of a bygone way of life can be found in the crocheted hunting scenes hanging on the wall next to a giant flat-screen TV in his living room. “Hunting is getting more and more difficult,” he says. “The fjord hardly ever freezes over in the winter anymore; nowadays, snowmobiles would sink.
Cattle will be added to the mix on the island’s rocky meadows, part of a new dairy industry officials envision for Greenland. One day in the near future, the island’s farmers could even be growing broccoli and Chinese cabbage.
Only 19 cows currently graze on Greenland. “Each of them has a name,” agricultural consultant Høegh adds with a grin. Nine are owned by Sofus Frederiksen, an athletic Inuit with an angular face who drives like a man who knows that no one monitors driving speed on Greenland.
In his Landrover, the 42-year-old Frederiksen hurtles along a dusty trail [to where] his cows graze the slopes unattended. But winter is a different story when it comes to feeding cattle. Milder temperatures could soon allow him to harvest two crops of hay each season. When that happens, perhaps Greenland will live up to its name as it did when Vikings settled on this icy island.
“What we are experiencing here is a genesis,” says reindeer man Stefan Magnusson, his voice filled with emotion. “Just a few years ago there was ice where we are now standing”; Magnusson’s reindeer graze an area of about 1,500 square kilometers (579 square miles). “It suddenly starts raining here in February or March,” This is fatal for the animals, because the rain quickly freezes, forming a crust of ice over the grass.
For now, Magnusson is hoping to strike it rich with a possible mining deal. The metal, he says, is used to forge the hard steel used to make ball bearings. “That’s why the world needs vanadium like crazy right now.”
Perhaps your next meal of broccoli will come from Greenland. Meanwhile, if the Greenland ice sheet melts as is feared, Manhattan, London, Florida, Holland, the Maldives, Indonesia and Bangladesh will be partially under water, to cite a few examples. Good news to some is bad news elsewhere.
Next and Previous
Here is a summary of the eight posts in the essay. Navigation links are located just below the summary.
GlobalWarming:1 discusses why Global Warming happened, who and what causes it, ending up with a list of villains. It did not go into the consequences of Global Warming. It didn’t discuss what is happening to the oceans, the Arctic, Greenland, El Nino, eco systems, weather impacts, tundra, ice packs, the Kyoto Protocol or the Stern reports or other Global Warming topics. That is yet to come.
GlobalWarming:2 covers two main subjects. First, the UN provides a real mixed bag of positive and negative influences on the fight against Global Warming. The positive is that they try, have some credibility and many resources. The negative is that they fail. The Kyoto Protocol is not reducing emissions, nor are the associated reports. The CER system is causing more trouble than good. Solutions exist but are not acted on. Second, industrial strategies and national policies do little to reduce Global Warming – in fact, the opposite is generally true in spite of rhetorical lip service.
The current Global Warming:3 examines the basic root cause of our problem: rising temperatures. Is the increase real and does it matter? Is it natural or caused by man? Are the temperatures unusual compared to history? Do GHGs actually cause the increase? What can past temperature variations tell us about what we face today? Can you even trust the basic data and analysis of temperatures? The post answers those and other questions in exuberant detail.
GlobalWarming:4 shows Global Warming is not the first disaster forecast ever done, published and hyped. There were many in the past and as a rule they failed. The disaster in question simply did not happen because extending some historical trend into the future does not work – trends change. So the question is – why is this particular doom and gloom outlook right? What is different this time? As you will see, plenty is different.
GlobalWarming:5 reviews the role and issues of population growth. This is a vital issue for future emissions as shown in GlobalWarming:1. Historically over the past 250 years, the explosive growth in populations explains two thirds of the increase in GHG emissions. The rise in personal carbon use must be reversed as must other issues related to unbalanced growth in populations.
GlobalWarming:6 summarizes some important and a few not so important opinions on Global Warming. Global Warming is a battle ground, galvanizing the left against the right, neo conservatists against liberals, the sane against those not quite sane, the religious right against evangelists, politicians against constituents, reactionaries against activists, bloggers against bloggers, late show hosts against ratings, journalists against circulations, spokespersons against skeptics and, not least, scientists against scientists. This post contains a small sample of the rare truth, accusations, biases, opinions and propaganda thrown left and right, up and down.
GlobalWarming:7 is perhaps the meat of this series. It gets into the details of what is happening right now in the some 25 different real life areas. The true impacts of Global Warming range from ocean bottoms to mountain tops, from oil fields to highways, from tundra to tropics and from farm fields to smoke stacks. These items are not forecasts, assumptions or opinions but verifiable hard facts. The picture is indicative of your, and my, future. The earthly signs get worse by the day
.
GlobalWarming:8 paints three scenarios (not forecasts) of what might happen in the future. There are pessimistic, optimistic and middle of the road pictures. The three scenarios use simple, common sense assumptions, very different from the elaborate, multi million $ systems enjoyed by the UN, the Stern Report, EPA and others. The big systems rely on myriads of assumptions as input, many of which aren’t really known and/or subject to lots of complexity. I favor the KISS approach.
I’m by no means competing with the “big” studies or the smart people putting them together. I used to be a forecasting guru working for the UN, the World Bank, FAO, OECD, the EU and many Fortune 500 companies. I guess I have a right to an opinion. No one is required to consider my views.
I am completely nonaffiliated. No political party enjoys my support. I have no axe to grind. I receive no monetary compensations, grants or sponsorships. There are no PayPal buttons on these pages. I have no obligations to fulfill. Office politics do not thrive around here. I promote no agendas except my own – the survival of us all. Occasionally, I put up some of the photos from my portfolios and my photo business.
GlobalWarming:4-8 will follow together with other commentaries and follow ups. Hang in there. The links below help you navigate this monster essay. It’s all quite important to your health.
| GW:1 | GW:2 | GW:3 | GW:4 | GW:5 | GW:6 | GW:7 | GW:8 |
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A Temporary Link Target
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Global Warming 1: Culprits, Scoundrels and Villains
January 29, 2007
All of us like a comfortable life. If we don’t have it, then we strive to achieve it. That attitude will kill us all, unless changed very soon. The comfortable life of today uses a lot of carbon based energy and carbon producing processes such as deforestation. The result is the emission of very harmful gases referred to as Greenhouse Gases (GHGs). These gases end up in the atmosphere, the oceans and miscellaneous other places. They cause Global Warming. 
Millions of people already die each year due to pollution. Somehow that does not seem to bother us. Even so, these carbon intensive, expensive and dangerous habits may be taken away from us quite soon. That may be the good news from Global Warming.
Here is what no one wants to tell you. Global Warming will change your life much sooner than you’d ever believe. It won’t necessarily be that much worse in the long run, at least for our kids. It may end up far better. But there will, at best, be a period of sacrificing what billions of us work and wish for. No one knows exactly when, what or how much will in fact happen. At best, some “comfortable” parts of our life will not be feasible. At worst, this planet will not be habitable to humans.
It is possible that things won’t work out with Global Warming. We may be past the point of no return. If we aren’t yet, we will be shortly unless drastic measures are taken. That’s the apocalyptic version of what we face. No one knows.
You will not hear such blasphemy from George W. Bush, EPA, NOAA, the UN, EU, NASA, the Stern Report or thousands of other recognized organizations and studies. That is because they cover up the worst news. They know telling the truth straight is not good for their grants, popularity polls and job security. I do not have to worry about that.
This series of essays will discuss exactly what is going on in great detail. The discussion will focus on things actually happening right now, not on fancy and complex forecasts. Anyone reading or watching the news today is aware that something is going on.
Unfortunately, different agendas get in the way of straight talk. Neoconservatists such as George W. Bush hate to talk about it. Most industries hate spending the cost to reverse the death path we are on. Politicians hate it, run for cover and issue meaningless platitudes. Scientists love it but spend too much time fighting each other. People do not want to consider the personal sacrifices that are needed. After all, do you really care about thawing tundra and melting glaciers? Maybe not yet, but you will.
I have my own agenda. I hope I will make a contribution to human survival. That’s all.
Below are some introductions and a Table of Content. If you already know this material you can use the button below to skip to the main content. Use the TOC button or the Back button in your browser to return here. If you are new to the material, just keep going.
About the Essay and The Seven Parts
I split the essay into seven posts numbered 1 through 7 because of its size. Click here for more details. Use the TOC button to return here.
- The first post examines the basic reasons why we ended up in this dreadful mess.
- The second post covers the political and UN scene.
- The third post deals with rising temperatures.
- The fourth post discloses secrets about the forecasting business.
- The fifth post explains the contribution of rising populations to our problem.
- The sixth post looks at ill effects caused, right now, by Global Warming.
- The seventh post provides a view of possible solutions.
There is an elaborate link and TOC (Table of Content) system to help you get around this mass of material. Use it to find what is of your most immediate interest. Just below, there is a TOC (Table of Content) button that lets you enter the navigation system. Enjoy.
Table of Contents
| Blog Home | Home Site | Portfolios |
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- This Post: GlobalWarming:1 – Culprits, Scoundrels and Villains
- Allegro To “There ain’t no Global Warming”
- Adagio To the Krill
- The Stuff We Breathe
- The Deadly Vandals
- How Greenhouse Gases Work
- Why They Happen
- The Real Bad News
- From Where Does the Bad Stuff Come?
- Here are the Villains
- Bad Stuffs Do Bad Things
- Next
- GlobalWarming:2 – Politics, Scandals, Mass Committees
- GlobalWarming:3 – Few Like It Hot
- GlobalWarming:4 – Forecasting Disaster
- GlobalWarming:5 – Just Too Many Of Us
- GlobalWarming:6 – Terrifying Evidence
- GlobalWarming:7 – Cataclysmic Apocalypse?
Odes, Ballads, Songs and Arias
This essay contains real life mini stories about usually small effects of Global Warming. The aim is to make you consider reality, survival, pain and the future. I cite simple stories about how some of us (humans, animals, plants, oceans and everything else) are already in, or cause, deep trouble. Here are links to the various little puzzle pieces:
- Allegro to “There Ain’t No Global Warming”
- Adagio to the Krill
- Mountain Top Chorale
- Tiger in Your Tank Two Step
- Ballad of the Lemmings
- Ode to an Ancient Past
- Tale of the River
- Northeast Song
- Chant for the Confused
- Hymn to the North
- Parchment Míddjarn
- Anthem to the Oceans
- Aria for the Polar Bear
Images in this essay
I’ve chosen to illustrate some of the essays with images from my portfolios. After all, I’m a photographer. I’ll use mostly night scenes that may emphasize the seriousness of the topic. I like night scenes, with their dramatic and quite tricky light. The extremes in contrast, the deep blacks and the 
graininess appeal to me. Most of the images are shot handheld with an 85mm F1.2 lens and Delta 3200 film, push developed about 1/2 stop. This post GlobalWarming:1 does not contain any of my photos.
I produced all of the graphs based on my own databases, combining data from many sources. A few graphs and photos coming from various places complement the content.
This blog, its design, text content (except quotes from others) and my own images and graphs are copyright © Leading Design, Inc 2006-2007. All Rights Reserved. I make absolutely no claims on images or quotes from other sources.
Allegro to “There ain’t no Global Warming”
I like to insert little life stories about Global 
Warming as we all work through this massive set of facts, evidence, graphs, photographs, controversy and opinions. That might make this mess more palatable. I choose recent little articles that may not individually mean all that much to most people. Hopefully the little pieces will add up to a real picture in your mind.
There is not much secrecy to the fact I am concerned about a few issues. One is Global Warming. I believe that is a great threat to my life, those of my kids as it is to yours. Another concern of mine is this strange War on Terrorism that George W. Bush insists on escalating in the face of impossible odds by violating lots of laws and treaties. I actually oppose any war because wars hurt people. I don’t like that.
I’m not a liberal, democrat, Neoconservatist, republican, communist, atheist, religious-right or neo Nazi. I’m a photographer and artist, curious about life. I tend to obsess 
about issues usually far beyond my control. I try to be honest about myself as is required for me to be an artist. You be the judge.
Since this is going to be a long story about how bad this Global Warming thing is, why not in all fairness start out with a song about why “There Ain’t No Global Warming”. Here is my little Allegro, gathered from various sources:
“It is amazing that so many people believe global warming is real and is caused by humans. This myth has been largely promoted by the major media that gives much attention to those who support it and very little to those who debunk it. For example, in December, U.S. Sen. James Inhofe of Oklahoma chaired a “Climate Change and the Media” meeting. He said that global warming is a hoax. The meeting received almost no major media attention.”
“The Oscar-nominated documentary An Inconvenient Truth was to have been shown at a school science class in Federal Way, Wash., a Seattle suburb, until one of the children’ s fathers angrily attacked the idea and got its showing temporarily scrubbed for the entire district. Frosty E. Hardiman, father of seven and an evangelical Christian, objected to the film because it blamed the United States for global warming. He believes the change in climates to be one of the signs of Jesus’ imminent return.“
“An increase in CO2 would increase oxygen production by plants which each one of us breathes. Therefore, there is no global warming due to CO2 gas. If there is global warming it is because the sun is putting out more radiant energy and has been observed to vary in intensity over time.”
“Many Christian fundamentalists feel that concern for the future of our planet is irrelevant, because it has no future. They believe we are living in the End Time, when the son of God will return, the righteous will enter heaven, and sinners will be condemned to eternal hellfire.”
“They may also believe, along with millions of other Christian fundamentalists, that environmental destruction is not only to be disregarded but actually welcomed — even hastened — as a sign of the coming Apocalypse.“
“Zell Miller of Georgia, who earlier this year quoted from the Book of Amos on the Senate floor: “The days will come, sayeth the Lord God, that I will send a famine in the land. Not a famine of bread or of thirst for water, but of hearing the word of the Lord!”)”
“[Supportive] politicians include some of the most powerful figures in the U.S. government, as well as key environmental decision makers: Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (R-Tenn.), Senate Majority Whip Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), Senate Republican Conference Chair Rick Santorum (R-Penn.), Senate Republican Policy Chair Jon Kyl (R-Ariz.), House Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-Ill.), House Majority Leader Tom DeLay, House Majority Whip Roy Blunt (R-Mo.), U.S. Attorney General John Ashcroft, and quite possibly President Bush.”
“And those politicians are just the powerful tip of the iceberg. A 2002 Time/CNN poll found that 59 percent of Americans believe that the prophecies found in the Book of Revelation are going to come true. Nearly one-quarter think the Bible predicted the 9/11 attacks.”
“Last year, Inhofe invited a stacked-deck of fossil fuel-funded climate-change skeptics to testify at a Senate hearing that climaxed with him calling global warming “the greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the American people.” James Inhofe might be an environmentalist’s worst nightmare. The Oklahoma senator makes major policy decisions based on heavy corporate and theological influences, flawed science, and probably an apocalyptic world view — and he chairs the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee.”
“Inhofe’s staff defends his backward scientific positions, no matter how at odds they are with mainstream scientists. “How do you define ‘mainstream’?” asked a miffed staffer. “[Is it] scientists who accept the so-called consensus about global warming? Galileo was not [a] mainstream [person].”
That’s the entire Allegro of the Non-Believers. These quotes are not 20 years old, they are current views of allegedly grown up people. You certainly may classify some as lunatics. Maybe you should be concerned a few of them still hold seats in the US Congress. Of even more concern is that one of these fruit cakes is the current President of the United States of America.
These people have no clue what horrors Global Warming might bring. They categorically reject that part and expect divine release at the hands of a benign God. They may receive it sooner than they like. That is what the Allegro to “There Ain’t No Global Warming” is all about.
By the way – here are synonyms to the title of the essay:
- Culprit: con, convict, criminal, delinquent, evildoer, ex-con, felon, fugitive, jailbird, malefactor, miscreant, offender, rascal, sinner, transgressor, wrongdoer, yard bird
- Scoundrel: bad egg, bad news, bastard, black sheep, blackguard, caitiff, cheat, creep, crook, dastard, good-for-nothing, heel, imp, incorrigible, knave, lowlife, maggot, mischief-maker, miscreant, ne’er-do-well, prick, rascal, reprobate, rogue, scalawag, scamp, sleaze ball, slime bucket, thief, vagabond, villain, wretch
- Villain: SOB, antihero, bad guy, bastard, blackguard, brute, caitiff, creep, criminal, devil, dirty dog, enfant terrible, evildoer, heel, knave, libertine, lowlife, malefactor, meanie, mischief-maker, miscreant, monkey, offender, profligate, rapscallion, rascal, reprobate, rogue, scamp, scoundrel, sinner, sleaze ball, slime bucket, snot, wretch
Not everyone, in fact very few, involved in the Global Warming issue are fairly described in any of the above terms. Most are better described in opposite terms. Probably no one can be accused of all of the above. But some can be fairly accused of at least of some of the above. A few of those are in very powerful positions. Some are leaders of industry and governments. One still believes he is the leader of the Free World. The point I rudely make is that these people might kill us all while pursuing head in the sand, egotistical goals.
Adagio to the Krill
That just calls for another song more in line with reality. Here is the “Adagio to the Krill”:
“Krill populations, the basis of the marine food chain, are in free fall in the Estuary and Gulf of St. Lawrence, according to new research by scientists with the Maurice Lamontagne Institute, a marine science center associated with the federal agency Fisheries and Oceans Canada.”
“A probable cause, the scientists say, is global warming, and the risk is a reduction in the number of whales and fishes in these waters. Since 2000, half the usual numbers of humpback, fin, sei and blue whales come to feed on krill each summer in front of Tadoussac, a town on the Saguenay Fjord that has become famous for its whale watching opportunities.”
“The loss of sea ice in Antarctica brought on by global warming may be causing a decline in numbers of the crustacean krill“; ” The amount of krill in the southwest Atlantic has fallen by about 80 percent since 1979,”; “A drop in krill population has clearly adverse effects on species that feed on it, such as fur seals, black-browed albatrosses, and gentoo, macaroni penguins and whales”
“The 900-mile-long Antarctic Peninsula which sticks out from the main continent is warming up at a greater pace than the world average. There the ice is melting rapidly, and huge chucks of ice sheets are braking off. The Adelie penguins there have to swim ever longer distances to get food, and there is also less food, especially krill, small shrimp-like animals that depend on the sea ice. If the warming continues, they will be unable to survive there.”
“As would be expected, a warmer climate produces warmer oceans. In turn, warmer oceans wreck havoc with the food chain, beginning with krill at the bottom. Krill are free-floating, 1- to 2-inch shrimp-like crustaceans. They anchor this sea chain and are a key food source for marine life from sea birds to cod to whales. Heat the water, and cold-water-dependent krill disappear.”
“In the Antarctic seas, another potentially devastating feedback loop is taking place. Populations of krill have plummeted by 80% in the last few years due to loss of sea ice. Krill are the single most important species in the marine food chain, and they also extract massive amounts of carbon out of the atmosphere. No one predicted their demise, but the ramifications for both global warming and the health of marine ecosystems are disastrous. This, too, will likely feed on itself, as less krill means more carbon stays in the atmosphere, which means warmer seas, which means less ice, which means less krill and so on in a massive negative spiral.”
Truly caring about the poor krill is not easy. You probably never considered the plight of macaroni penguins before. It’d seem the food for whales is not really your concern. You may be right on all three accounts. But you’ll view it differently if it is YOUR food suddenly declining by 80%. That is not a far reached, cry-wolf, bleeding heart liberal invention. It might actually happen.
The Stuff We Breathe
The air around us is what keeps us alive, 
yet, in the end, it might destroy us. Earth is not the only “near by” planet with an atmosphere. Venus has one consisting largely of carbon dioxide, the most prevalent GHG. Temperatures are far too high for human life. Jupiter’s and Saturn’s atmospheres are mostly hydrogen and helium which is quite different from that of Earth. Mars’s very thin atmosphere is mostly carbon dioxide. Our own little moon does have traces of a very thin and unstable atmosphere. None of these planets provide life conditions anywhere close to those of Earth.
Let’s be grateful for the unique atmosphere we have had for so long, supported all living things. Let’s not destroy it as we are right now. Read on to find out how and why.
The Common Things
The large part of Earth’s atmosphere is quite stable at 78% nitrogen, 21% oxygen and 1% Argon. Then a lot of trace gases make up the balance of about .04% of the total. Nitrogen and oxygen are quite necessary to life. Argon does not do much one way or another – it’s used as an industrial gas. The devil, as you will see, is in the details – those .04% seemingly insignificant amounts of trace gases are, in some cases, quite deadly.
The atmosphere has not always been stable. The oxygen content has been as high as 37% and as low as 15%. These variations happened between 100 and 550 million years ago. About 40 million years ago, the oxygen content was 23%, slowly declining to today’s 21%. Scarily, no one knows the reasons for these variations except a certainty the atmosphere content will continue to change long term. At less than 15% oxygen, fires do not burn. At more than 25%, even the wettest of organic matter will easily burn.
Luckily, our immediate concern is not these parts of the atmosphere and what will happen millions of years from today. Unluckily, we have to deal with the minor trace gases – the killers of today. But first, a few words about the big gases:
Oxygen
The 21% oxygen is what we so desperately need to breathe. Unless its level is at or above normal levels, we suffocate. Oxygen is generated by photosynthetic organisms, mostly algae in the oceans and many terrestrial plants. There is evidence that Global Warming affects the photosynthetic process negatively.
Nitrogen
The 78% nitrogen is a required part of all living things. The main source of nitrogen is the atmosphere. Living things “fix” this gas into amino acids and other useful things. The nitrogen is eventually returned to the atmosphere by denitrification of soil and dead organic matter. There are many issues related to the nitrogen balance, such as the excessive use of nitrate fertilizers, the treatment of human and animal waste and the production of gases such as nitrogen oxides, which are GHGs.
Argon
Argon makes up 1% of the atmosphere. It is used by various industrial processes such as lamp bulbs, welding and wine making. It partly comes from decay of a version of potassium. It’s not a major factor in our quest on Global Warming.
The Deadly Vandals
While the oxygen and nitrogen content in the atmosphere carry its own baggage of environmental issues that may one day be quite deadly, they are not the focus of Global Warming. It is the remaining .04% of the atmosphere we’ll have to deal with. All of a sudden, there is a lot of complexity and unknown territory. My database lists well over 100 trace gases, all with their own characteristics. Many of those are GHGs. Many are extremely potent but luckily very small parts in the atmosphere mix.
This graph uses a logarithmic scale or you would not be able to see the concentration of trace gases compared to the much larger nitrogen and oxygen components. While the carbon dioxide part looks almost as big as that of nitrogen, nitrogen is almost 3000 times as prevalent. Put another way, most of the trace gases are very rare. Many are around .1 PPBv (parts per billion on volume).
An allegorical perspective: Earth population currently is about 6.5 billion people. Most of these gases are the volume equivalent of less than one person out of the 6.5 billion. Imagine that single “person” is a terrorist wearing the latest nuclear suicide belt. We know he or she is out there but have no idea where. How do you catch him/her and neutralize the treat? Moreover, suppose there are at least 25 of them, all equally invisible, totally different and enormously dangerous. Maybe 9/11 will look like a minor event after all. In fact, each of these gases carries a potential power exceeding that of nuclear bombs.
Fog, Smog and Pollution
About 4.5 million people die each year from air pollution due to asthma, bronchitis and emphysema. Carbon monoxide and sulphur dioxide are both major pollutants, mainly from combustion. Formaldehyde is another killer as are others in the graph above. Smog, one form of very visible pollution, typically comes from nitrogen oxides, ozone, peroxiacetylnitrate and other PANs, VOCs and R’Os, most of which are present in the graph above.
Ozone is a pollutant on the ground level, where it is part of the smog problem. At a height of 10-50 kilometers, ozone plays a very different role. It filters out short wave ultraviolet light, protecting us all from skin cancer and other issues. The ozone content is and was threatened by Freon and other pollutants. Regulations have reduced Freon emissions to manageable levels although ozone holes still exist.
Ice Age Gases
About 35 years ago, Global Warming was not the concern. The opposite was feared due to high concentrations of sulphur dioxide. This gas comes mostly (at the time) from industrial smoke stacks. It caused acid rain, destroying a lot of forests. It is a cooling gas and the prevailing concern was a possible ice age looming. This possible disaster was largely avoided by the US Clean Air Act of 1970, relatively simple, but not cheap scrubber technology and similar measures elsewhere. Today, some SO2 is still emitted by industrial processes.
Major volcanic activities throw enormous quantities of SO2 into the air which can have a substantial, temporary impact on climate and temperatures. Some, including the US Government considers emitting SO2 into the atmosphere on a massive scale to be one emergency response to Global Warming. The trouble is that SO2 is a poisonous gas, killing people. More later.
Greenhouse Gases (GHG)
Here is the meat: the Greenhouse Gases and their presence in the atmospheric mix. Again, the scale is logarithmic and the mix of most of the gases is extremely low. All but three are below a level of 10 parts to the TRILLION. We literally deal with a few molecules flying around doing a very dirty job.
How Greenhouse Gases Work
By them selves, GHGs are not harmful to humans in the low, prevailing concentrations. We breathe OK. They are very harmful to the way climate works. Climate works by receiving warming energy from the Sun, then reflecting excess warming energy back out into space. Just about everything on this planet relies on the inflow of energy, the use of energy and the outflow being in balance.
If the inflow, use and outflow of energy gets out of balance, all hell breaks lose. Ice Ages happen or are 
reversed. Oceans rise dramatically or drop. Temperatures go up or down. Species die. The life of the planet Earth changes irrevocable. Some times that works out fine, sometimes not. The human race probably evolved thanks to a warming abnormality millions of years ago. But many other species went extinct. They still do.
Over millions of years, Earth has handled the balance of the energy, controlling climate all on its own in concert with the Sun. Many times things have been pretty bad. Ice ages are no fun. Neither is the disappearance of coastal areas under 50-150 meters of rising oceans. These things happened and Earth always came back. After all, we are here today, aren’t we? We are here today because Earth has been pretty good at reversing those bad times and returning conditions into balance.
Today things have changed. Our understandable desire for comfort is putting an incredibly strong and unprecedented pressure on Earth’s ability to maintain a balance compatible with human life. That’s because the man made GHGs from energy generation, transportation, deforestation and much else cause concentrations to rise because the natural cleaning act can’t keep up. These gases, once in the atmosphere in excess quantities, allow the Sun’s energy to come in but reduces the reflection of excess energy back out into space. Temperatures rise. Just about everything goes out of whack due to these very unnatural, not to mention offensive but “understandable” acts of ours.
Why They Happen
Why? There are several reasons, many of which will have to be covered in the rest of this essay series. For now, the outstanding one is the growth in populations demanding products that make their life comfortable or even possible. The second reason is that satisfying this demand causes too many harmful gases to enter the atmosphere. That’s quite simple, really.
Populations grow fast
Each individual in any part of the world uses products and services that cause carbon emissions into the air. Ranging from simple camp fires to industrial power plants, from the poorest to the richest, people cause GHGs to enter the atmosphere. The issue is that populations started to grow very quickly hundreds of years ago. They are still on a fast upwards path. Take a look:
This graph, going all the way back to Year 0, shows the extremely rapid growth in world population starting in the 1700s. Prior to that, populations grew quite slowly. Not so any more – since the 1700s, world population is up TEN TIMES without any real sign of an overall slowdown.
A lot of factors contributed to that sudden and ever lasting rise: medical breakthroughs, global transportation and communication, industrialization and money exchange systems, urbanization, agricultural breakthroughs, innovations and, not least, carbon energy.
Are medical breakthroughs stopping? Are global communications being reduced? Is innovation declining? How about agriculture, banking systems and industrialization in, say India and China? Slowing, flattening or declining? Will death rates go up and birth rates go down? None of that will happen on a voluntary basis.
Stopping growth in overall populations is real hard. Even China’s 25 year old One Child policy isn’t quite working – fertility still is somewhere from 1.6 to 2.6 children per female. There are even signs of easing the policy. India still has a high growth rate, not expected to slow dramatically.
Overall, less developed countries will increase significantly which will accentuate a labor force supply and demand issue becoming more controversial, in particular in Africa. There is no accident we see civil wars, ethnic cleansing, famines, mass murder, civil disorder and diseases being far more common in Africa than elsewhere.
Populations are stagnating in most of the industrial world. The cause is the general aging of the population, resulting in a 1) relatively shorter fertile period, and a 2) declining birth rate because of more females in the work force as well as 3) birth control and 4) the high price of a child over a twenty year period. The US is an exception where populations will continue upwards.
European fertility is around 1.5 children per female, down from 2.5 in 1960. It’s as low as 1.2 in some Eastern countries. A rate of about 2.1 maintains a stable population. Russia is losing some 750,000 people each year because of a high death rate and a low birth rate, including very high use of abortions. The death rate is almost twice a normal one, much due to male alcoholism. The fertility rate is 1.3. Few people immigrate to Russia compared to the US or Europe.
The little green slice at the bottom right shows the US. It looks quite small, doesn’t? Hard to see how that little piece can be the biggest polluter in the World and, diminishing, the one remaining world power.
Concentrations skyrocket
Next, compare that growth in population to the growth of world carbon dioxide concentrations, going back a little less than 650,000 years, as measured mostly from Antarctica ice core samples:
The scale is a bit funny: the left third the graph covers 647,000 years while the right two thirds covers about 3,000 years. That’s the way the data comes out of the Antarctica ice cores.
There are three very important points made in this graph: First, in ancient times, there was quite a bit of volatility in GHGs – that’s why there were ice ages, why dinosaurs died and mankind evolved. Second, for 2,800 years up to the year 1700, GHG levels were very stable at about 280 PPMv (parts per million by volume). Third, 1750 rolled around with the industrial revolution. Energy was needed. Populations took off. GHG concentrations started their meteoric rise. Compare the population graph with the concentration trend. Both are way out of historical experiences as of today. There is no sign of an overall slowdown; not in populations or in concentrations. The current all time high concentration is 385 PPMv.
Another important point is that a level of GHGs is necessary in the atmosphere. If it falls too low, we freeze to death in a monumental ice age. If it is too high, all living creatures will be affected with many, possibly all, going extinct in an unstoppable evil feedback loop called Global Warming.
Here is the same concentration data expressed as growth over time. I’m using a logarithmic scale so you can see history clearly. The overall growth for the first 649,750 years (ignoring the early ups and downs) was very low – only averaging about 1/1000 of a percent a year. From 1750 it rose steadily. Today, the rate is 0.25 percent per year.
A flat growth rate (horizontal level in the graph) represents very fast exponential growth. What you see is an accelerating rate, trending upwards. That is very bad news. That trend must be reversed.
Here is what we deal with so far: A bunch of very low concentration gases whose mix in the atmosphere changes at a very low rate. After all, who wouldn’t be happy with a credit card interest rate of 0.25% rather than 25.25%? Why care about something so infrequent it’s hard to even imagine it? The problem is that even a low, and accelerating, growth rate results in concentrations increasing exponentially over very long periods of time. Further, Earth’s balancing climate act is very sensitive to even the slightest change.
Emissions Take Off
Above, I only talked about GHG concentrations. That concentration in the atmosphere is not stable. It is subject to a very complex chain of factors that include the exchange between the air and “carbon sinks” such as biomass and the oceans in a never ending cycle of give and take. Both the oceans and biomass store huge amounts of historical GHG emissions. If that complex balance is disturbed, or if the storages fill up or even reverse their role, releasing their GHGs back into the atmosphere….. Well, that’s what is happening right now.
The storage mechanism is getting unstable. But why would such a system stop working after being mostly fine for millions of years? It is because we humans eject billions of tons of GHGs into the atmosphere in our quest for a better life. This has never happened before. It is disabling the natural system of checks and balances. Disaster looms.
The worldwide emissions of GHGs grew from around 0.2 million tons in the year 0 to 6.8 billion tons in 2006. That is an overall growth rate of 0.1% per year over the 2000+ years. The graph looks a lot like the population graph above, so is the rise just a matter of more people? No, it is not – here is the same graph on a per capita basis. The time scale is depressed so it covers 1700 till today. Then you can actually see the changes:
The per capita emissions increased as well. That means population growth alone does not explain the total growth in emissions. Working through the math, total emissions grew by 1.1 percent per year from 1800 to 2006. Per capita emissions grew by .7 percent per year. That leaves .4 percent per year to other factors, mostly industrialization.
In short – the increase in emissions leading to a potential disaster is caused by population growth (65 percent) and technology (35 percent) as we strive for a “better life”. That is looking over a 200+ year perspective. In real simplistic terms: Convince people to use less carbon based products and to abandon bad ideas such as deforestation. That could go a long way towards a solution. Now, that’s not only simplistic, it’s naive. People will not do that. So let’s keep looking.
Next, let’s examine the US in more detail as an example of how economic trends play a big role:
This really is quite a remarkable graph. The US has managed over 4% growth in Industrial Production quite consistently for more than 200 years. The graph uses a logarithmic volume scale so a straight line represents a constant percent growth rate. The rate has slowed a bit since the 1970s but it still is a tremendous economic performance. But what’s the price? Here it is:
Here I go back to the common linear scale. The emissions (greenish in the graph) truly took off in the mid-late 1800s. The growth rate for CO2 emissions from 1785 till today is over 5% per year. That’s why the US is the biggest and saddest cause of Global Warming.
In the background, you can see a reddish trend that represents a forecast of emissions based on 1) US population and 2) economic activity as measured by Industrial Production. In tandem these two factors explain the rise in emissions. The story is simple: more and more people want more and more comfort, leading to a lot of cars, toasters, air conditioners, heaters, air planes, oil wells, farting cows, refineries, power plants, fertilizers, barbeques and trucks, all producing GHGs.
Here is another graph for all of you statistics fans: it shows the same relationship of emissions vs. population and Industrial Production. It simply amplifies the strong relationship between the number of people, the goods they desire and the resulting emissions. I use a multiple, polynomial regression technique in case you are really curious. No? Well, ignore it.
The Real Bad News
We have seen no good news so far, but the full scope of the possible disaster is by no means yet clear. We need to dive much further down to understand the cause and effect. Why bother? You should bother because your life and those of your kids depend on actions that are not easy to accept. Read on.
Very Small Quantities
On the one hand, we throw billions of tons of harmful gases into the atmosphere. On the other hand, concentrations of these gases are very low. What gives? Simple – the world’s atmosphere is very, very large – it actually has a mass of about 5,000 trillion tons. In simplistic terms, the oxygen content is maybe 1,000 trillion tons. CO2, the most common GHG, makes up a mere 2 trillion tons. The very potent Sulfur hexafluoride gas makes up maybe 0.002 trillion tons. These are big numbers but very small compared to the 5,000 trillion total mass. Here are some details:
Beware of the logarithmic scale: nitrogen (green for OK) is over 2,000 times as common as carbon dioxide(red for Bad). The green Oxygen is almost 6 million times as prevalent as Chloromethane. The red GHGs are very rare. Unfortunately, it is neither mass nor volume that counts.
Extremely Potent
CO2 outweighs all others GHGs by a mile or two. Luckily for us, it is one of the least harmful of gases by the ton. Other GHGs are much more powerful potential creators of Global Warming. These gases are not very common, I’m happy to report. If they were common, then I wouldn’t be able to report to you at all. Nor would you read this. Mankind would not exist. Did you ever watch the movie or read the book “On the Beach”? If not, please do and use your imagination.
The graph below shows the Global Warming Potential of most GHGs on a 100 year perspective. I use the logarithmic scale. As an example, the Sulfur hexafluoride gas I already mentioned is 22,200 times as harmful as CO2.
What you see in the graph is a lot of awful stuff. It certainly would make sense to minimize the emissions causing the problem, wouldn’t it? That’s a good idea but not that easy to implement. One big problem is that once the gases are emitted, they hang around for a long time.
Long Shelf Life
Using a logarithmic scale, this graph shows the shelf life of most GHGs. A few go away fairly quickly after entering the air. Most do not. Many ethers, for instance disappear quickly. Freon-14, on the other hand, may hang around for 50,000 years. There are 17 gases, including CO2, which will be present for more than a hundred years after release.
The long shelf life of the gases creates a lot of inertia in the system. For instance, CO2 emitted today will not reach its full Global Warming impact for up to a hundred years. There is only a limited amount of actions available to us to tackle that issue. The one sure thing is that continuing to emit these gases is a very bad idea.
Which ones really matter?
On the one hand, we have warming potential. On the other hand, we have concentrations. High warming potential is bad. Low concentration is good. But do they offset each other? Here is a simplistic attempt to find out:
Still using a logarithmic scale, I multiplied the warming potential with the concentration of the various gases. That may (or not) be a reasonable measure what danger we face from each of the gases. I’m happy to report, assuming my theory is right, we really only have to be terror struck by three of them: carbon dioxide, methane and nitrious oxides. There are a few border cases , mostly Freon type. The rest may be potent but their low concentrations prevent major impacts, given my no doubt oversimplified assumption.
Hard to Reverse Trends
We face two issues. The first and obvious one is to reduce emissions. As I’ve pointed out, that immediately leads to many people issues and political time bombs. Consider the Religious Right that finds the extinction of mankind its ultimate blessing. Consider those that have 
inevitably found ways to cash in on Global Warming. Consider the mass of people that will ignore any issue.
The second issue – can we clean up the already polluted air? The answer is maybe – some technologies are available but none are operational. This is complicated by the large amount of gases involved. The graph above shows 75 different greenhouse gases, each with its own behavior and origin. There is a big price tag attached to this and any other solution.
Speaking of origin, where does all this awful junk come from? Who should be blamed? Hopefully you have got the message. All of us are to be blamed. But some will be blamed more than others.
From Where Does the Bad Stuff Come?
Industrialization and urbanization led to a lot of new processes and material introduced into our eco system. We needed more food to feed more mouths, leading to deforestation and the use of copious amounts of carbon based fertilizers. We needed cars, air planes, trucks, ships, SUVs and motorcycles to get that food into our heated or air conditioned homes. We needed indoor lights and some needed outdoor lamps to display their carbon fertilized gardens. Our homes were and are
built from all kinds of hazardous materials, many nonrenewable. Each home consumes enormous quantities of energy. So does most living creatures on Earth. So do our toys.
So far, we have identified two villains of Global Warming: population and, vaguely, technology. Let’s look for some more specifics. We need to consider several layers, starting on a National level, drilling down to Industry behavior and finally, the people level.
National Infrastructures
Industrialized countries possess a large infrastructure and investment built around carbon energy and products. That infrastructure successfully delivers not only what the people demands for their standard of living, but is intertwined into almost all aspects of a country’s social, economic and industrial fabric. It is a vital national asset. Unfortunately, it became a liability as well. 
Global Warming is a political quagmire of monumental proportions. It largely revolves around a United Nations initiative called the Kyoto Protocol. This deeply flawed agreement depends on international cooperation that is inequitable by dividing the world into those that pay and those that receive. It directs money from a few developed countries to highly polluting less developed countries including rapidly growing countries such as China and India. OPEC is also doing its best to capitalize. So are numerous banks, clearing houses and individual consultants.
The Kyoto Protocol is one problem. Another issue is the inability of politicians to deal with bad, expensive news that do not, right now, directly and visibly benefit themselves or their constituency. Today, most of the obvious signs of the impact of Global Warming occur in remote areas – Greenland, the Arctic and deep in the oceans. It is not yet affecting most suburban neighborhoods. Hence, politicians can afford to avoid the whole mess. And that they do, with a few exceptions.
I know well this is oversimplifying. There are many very concerned people, even politicians, taking a an active interest in Global Warming and its cure. Some even act in various ways. There is a clear trend of increasing concern. But so far there is little evidence any initiative has a substantial and proven impact on Global Warming. We most definitely still deal with a major time bomb.
Global Warming is not just an environmental or social issue such as the protection of whales or pygmy hogs. It is a difficult political issue of world wide scope. Different countries have vastly different agendas. They also contribute to Global Warming in different manners. Let’s look at some of the national differences:
The US leads the way in total emissions. Europe and China come close. Transitory economies (mostly the former Soviet sphere of interest) emit a lot although their emissions are down as the Soviet empire collapsed and took with it high pollution, non competitive industries. But are we comparing apples and oranges here? These countries and areas are vastly different. For instance, consider the same data on a per capita basis:
Suddenly, the picture changes from before. The US, Canada and Oceania (mostly Australia) are the top polluters on a personal basis. India and China, both heavy polluters on a total basis, are at the bottom of the scale. Their huge populations and fast development is offset by a major imbalance: some of their areas are highly developed while other parts are not much different than from hundreds of years ago. The picture is not yet complete: we need to consider economic differences:
Here again, the picture changes. The graph shows emissions per unit of economic activity – a measure of how efficiently a country uses carbon resources from an emission point of view. The US, Europe and Japan are highly developed and quite efficient. They drop to the bottom. Less developed areas and Indonesia jump to the top of offenders. You will shortly see why.
Now, let’s combine the effect of populations and economic activity to see who the high and low emitters are. This is done by using well established statistical methods:
The green line represents the expected emissions given a country’s population and economic activity. The red line in the graph tells you the US and China emits more than expected while Europe emits less. Here is more detail, expanding on the difference between actual and expected emissions. The data is the same as in the graph above:
So here is the conclusion so far: Western Europe and Japan are efficient users of carbon technology. China and the US are not efficient users. Neither is the Mideast where its huge oil industry emits a lot of harmful gases. Russia, another poor performer, still carries a lot of inefficient industry around while also being a major energy producer results in high emissions.
This is not the final conclusion – some of the areas the look good above have some very bad habits as we’ll shortly see. I simply go step by step towards some solution to the villain issue. This is actually a case where there is no real stopping point. Every anomality has its reasons and making simplified, naive statements is quite easy and possibly very unfair. Regardless, some issues stand out very clearly and that is what I want to identify.
Finally, let’s consider growth in emissions by major countries as expressed by units of economic activity:
This graph introduces “Annex 1″ and “Non Annex 1″ countries. This classification comes from the Kyoto Protocol. Annex 1 countries are essentially the industrialized countries. These are subject to restrictions and mandatory reductions in carbon gas emissions. Non Annex 1 countries are mostly less developed countries that are subject to no mandatory reductions. Emissions are rising much faster in Non Annex 1 countries than in the industrial Annex 1 countries. Middle East and its oil industry increased emissions the most, followed by Korea, China and India. Western Europe, the US and Japan increased emissions modestly relative to their economic base. The former Soviet block emissions declined sharply as parts of their high pollution industry was forced to shut down.
What is the overall picture in terms of “villains”? Overall, China is the leading poor performer, as are the fast growing emerging economies in general. The less developed areas emit more than the developed areas on a comparable basis. The US is not doing well, neither is Canada or Australia. The best performers are Western Europe and Japan. Now we will drill down to find out the reasons for these differences.
Track Down The Bad Guys
Here is the world wide picture of the activities that produce GHGs, expressed as percent of total emissions.
Of all things, deforestation is the worst villain in the emissions game? What about agriculture, livestock and manure ranking high as poor performers? That road traffic, building heating and cooling together with emissions from oil and gas processing rank high is hardly unexpected.
Add up agriculture, live stock and deforestation and you look at 37% of total emissions. Transportation makes up 14% and buildings (heating and cooling, mostly) amount to 15%. The rest of the many activities make up the remaining 34%. Some activities actually absorb carbon gases: reforestation and afforestation are positive factors.
Here is another step down in our search for villains. We’ll look at the same data broken out by type of gas:
Narrowing things down: CO2 emissions in deforestation (18.3%), buildings (15.3%) and transportation (13.8%); methane (CH4) in livestock, manure (including human) and landfills (7.6%) and, finally, nitrous fertilizers (1%). These five categories represent 56% of the world wide emissions. Now, let’s look at where these emissions are happening. Here is the first clue:
Now, here is a real clear picture: the emissions from Industrial nations (Annex 1) come mostly from the Electricity, Heating and Transportation sectors while Less Developed countries cause most of their emissions from Land Use (Deforestation, mostly) and Agriculture.
Energy
Let’s keep tracking down the villains first by looking at the energy section we already know dominates the industrial world but not the less developed countries. Here is what I call the Cost of Comfort since the main part of the energy is used to control temperature (comfort) in buildings.
No question about the guilty party here. The US emits twice as much CO2 to satisfy its heaters and air conditioners as the second on the list, Japan. The US out-pollutes the less or emerging countries by a factor of 9:1. That is a pretty high price to pay by not only the US but the rest of the world as well.
Broadening the scope a bit, here are the emissions broken down into Energy versus Land use by country:
Categorizing the emissions as “Expedience” versus “Deforestation” is perhaps generalizing a bit too far. The point is that developed countries, with the US in the lead, cause emissions for entirely different reasons than the less developed countries. Developed countries produce emissions due to energy demand, the less developed world cause emissions mostly from agriculture and deforestation activities. You might make a note of China’s emissions coming from industrial sources rather than land use and agriculture. So do India’s emissions.
Deforestation
Here is a drill down on Land Use emissions:
The pattern remains clear. Tropical areas with forests are busy cutting down timber for sale or pursuing slash and burn techniques to make room for farming. The scope of depleting a vital world wide resource is staggering and has a major impact on Global Warming. Under the Kyoto Protocol, these countries have no obligation to change the very destructive actions. In fact, there are numerous ways to make big money out of these practices. At stake are 100s of billions of dollars. I will cover this in detail later.
Note that the US Land Use account is negative. That means that returning deforested areas to its natural state actually helps clean up the air from emissions. That is a trend happening in many developed countries.
Deforestation is the single largest emission source. Let’s see what countries are involved:
I use a logarithmic scale so you can see the emissions from the smaller countries. In effect, there are only four countries with a large emission impact: Indonesia, Brazil, Malaysia and Myanmar (ex-Burma). The importance of the emissions from these countries, essentially due to greed, is worth a note: their practices accumulate to about 12% of the world’s total emissions.
Here is an update on the villain analysis: CO2 emissions from Deforestation in Indonesia, Brazil, Malaysia and Myanmar (12%), other Non Annex 1 Land Use emissions (25%), emissions from Electricity and Heat in the US, China and Transitory countries (18%) and the same in other Annex 1 countries (19%). These four categories add up to 74% of all emissions.
Transportation
Let’s continue our quest just a little bit longer by examining the transportation sector.
There is not much of a contest here. The US wins hands down, followed at a distance by the EU25, essentially Europe. The US emissions, due to transportation, are 5.4% of the world total emissions with Europe following at 2.8%.
Here is a closer look at the transportation sector in the UK:
Cars and trucks lead with a huge margin over all other sources of transport emissions of GHGs, CO2 mostly. I was surprised to see airplanes so far down the range, I expected far more emissions from this sector. Part of the explanation is that international air traffic is excluded which is a large part of UK’s total air program. Likewise, keep in mind that the UK is a small country relative to the US. That means long range domestic truck freights are far less common than in the USA.
Compare with the US picture:
Both trucks and cars are still the top polluters although the order of the two reversed. Aircrafts are a surprisingly small factor as it was in the UK. But there are some unique aspects to the US market – here is the growth in emissions by type of vehicle:
Light trucks are the second fastest growing polluters in the US. This segment includes vans, mini-vans, SUVs and pickup trucks. The vehicles are mainly used as a substitute for regular cars – the US love of gas guzzlers has not changed. This category even enjoys a totally absurd tax break. The cars hardly increased emissions at all.
Breaking down the light truck&car growth tells an important story. Cars declined from 80% to 47%. SUVs went from nothing to 27% while all other reached 26% from 20%.
The “light truck” segments emit 68% of the US Transportation emission. The US Transportation emissions amount to 6.5 % of the world’s total emissions. Thus, US SUVs, hummers, mini vans and a few more represent almost 4.5% of the world’s total emissions. It exceeds the total energy sector emissions of Japan as well those of India. That is pretty outrageous. Especially considering they also get tax breaks.
Commercial airlines in the US hardly increased emissions, seen from 1990 to 2003. However, up till 9/11 airline emissions were up 20%. Then 9/11 caused a drastic cut in traffic. That explains the low emission growth over the full period. Emissions today are increasing. Still emissions compare favorably to passenger miles. The airlines are getting more efficient operationally.
The large US truck segment grew their emissions rapidly. Part is due to the decline in rail freight, benefiting trucks. As long range trucking increased, so did emissions. Not only that, gas mileage declined as rigs got larger.
A last transportation issue: an ever increasing mode to get to work in the US is going there, all alone, in your car. That mode went up from 64% in 1980 to 76% in 2000. Carpooling, public transportation (always a minor part in the US) and walking/biking all declined. As I have said, comfort is a major driver of sky rocketing GHG emissions.
Here are the Villains
Here is the final list of major emission offenses around the world:
The major countries: the US, China and Indonesia. The major areas: Deforestation, Electricity & Heat and Transportation, in particular SUVs and the like in the US. Fixing these emissions would go a long way towards a solution. It won’t happen. At least not given today’s situation where the comfort, biases, reluctance and pass-the-buck attitude of most “decision makers” still rule.
Let’s cut to the chase again. Here is the ultimate list as far as I can break down the data. First the 10 worst performing areas by activity, then – why not – the best performing areas in terms of GHG emissions. You’ll find some of the same names in both the best and the worst categories:
Here we are: the ten worst performers in Global Warming as specific as I can be. The US and China keep their top bad guy positions. Electricity & Heat sectors remain major problems in Industrial and emerging nations. The US love of SUVs, Hummers and cars in general isn’t doing the world any good.
Indonesia’s forestry practices not only show up poorly here: the smoke, haze and pollution result in running eyes and abused lungs of its own people and those in surrounding countries. Governments in Singapore and elsewhere are not amused. Here are some details (Source: here):
Indonesia’s forests are being degraded and destroyed by logging, mining operations, large-scale agricultural plantations, colonization, and subsistence activities like shifting agriculture and cutting for fuel wood. Rainforest cover has steadily declined since the 1960s when 82 percent of the country was covered with forest, to 68 percent in 1982, to 53 percent in 1995, and 49 percent today. Much of this remaining cover consists of logged-over and degraded forest.
Indonesia is the world’s largest exporter of tropical timber, generating upwards of US$5 billion annually, and more than 48 million hectares (55 percent of the country’s remaining forests) are concessioned for logging.
The fastest and cheapest way to clear new land for plantations is by burning. Every year hundreds of thousands of acres hectares go up in smoke as developers and agriculturalists feverishly light fires before monsoon rains begin to fall. In dry years—especially during strong El Niño years—these fires can burn out of control for months on end, creating deadly pollution that affects neighboring countries and causes political tempers to flare.
Fires in Indonesia’s peat swamps are particularly damaging due to the high carbon content of the ecosystem—Dr Susan Page, of the University of Leicester, estimates that Southeast Asian peat lands may contain up to 21 percent of the world’s land-based carbon. The 1997 fires released 2.67 billion tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.
Now, that’s how you get to a top spot in the evil emission game. Greed, expedience, winds carrying the pollution elsewhere and great profits fuel the practices. Meanwhile, together with the other rain forest countries cashing in; not only do the burns produce GHGs, the biomass’ ability to store CO2 is destroyed and actually reversed. This hurts on a world wide scale.
Let’s flip the coin. Here are the winners – those that actually contribute to a small part of the solution. Recent studies claim significant reforestation occurs in many industrial countries. That view is supported here:
For once, here the US is leading the pack in a positive manner. China and India are doing quite well, too, negating a small part of their other offences. These biggest overall villains do a little piece of good in the forestry area. Most of the reforestation is natural through fast growing hardwoods. Some parts are supported by planting and seedling programs. The US gain in negative emissions amount to about 2% of world wide emissions – not a big number but significant, especially considering the overall 18% going the opposite way thanks to Indonesia, Malaysia and Brazil.
Bad Stuffs Do Bad Things
So far, this discussion has covered the fact that populations and industrialization caused a lot of bad 
gases to enter the atmosphere. It’s time to cover why that is dangerous and may cause a very substantial impact on mankind.
Think about it this way. We live on a small planet in an infinitely large Universe. If we move outside the slim protection of this planet’s atmosphere, as some brave people do, we enter a very hostile environment in which we cannot live without very complex support systems. Even under the best of circumstances, the chances of our long term survival against these overwhelming external forces must be very remote.
Planet Earth established a very unique system allowing life going back millions of years. That system depends on a give and take balancing act to function. The balance act is all that protects us from the very hostile Universe outside. Without it fully functioning, we’re literally toasted.
Upsetting the balance in any way is like playing Russian roulette with your kids. Or building a nuclear bomb in your garage. Or imagining you can fly off tall buildings. As some do literally. Less literally, we are playing Russian roulette with the balance act of Earth. We have done that for some 250 years and Earth has taken about 
all it can. Alarm bells are ringing but very few of us are listening.
The immediate impact of the emissions, throwing the balance off, is rising global temperatures. That is creating havoc in the Arctic and elsewhere far beyond what any layman would expect from the change of a degree or two. But whatever you believe as a layman, politician or scientist, very scary things are happening right now.
I’ll jump to the bottom line. Below are some of the conclusions of this series of essays, based on events happening right now. It’s quite a long list but it is based on solid facts. No forecasts. No politics. Plain facts that will be thoroughly covered as I publish the next parts of this series:
Compounding factors (making Global Warming effects worse):
Extremely Critical: Populations: The two subjects, populations and emissions, are up, up and then up. There is a natural reason why that is happening. Humans breed and they like a comfortable life. Nothing in the historical data indicates that will change. Heck, common sense tells 
you no one will want that to change, especially on a personal level. A further complication is the disparity between the have’s and the have not’s. The have not’s want what the have’s have. That, again is perfectly natural from the perspective of the have not’s. It’s all in human nature, deeply burnt in and very difficult to change.
Unfortunately, all evidence of Global Warming indicates a drastic change is required. Otherwise mankind may not survive. A 60-70% reduction in carbon emissions might save us. That will be painful. Anyone may doubt if such sacrifice can happen. Politicians don’t want to even hear about it. Look at that last graph again and ask yourself if it is possible for it to actually become reality
Extremely Critical: Temperatures: Four original questions, four answers:
- First, is the temperature rise consistent with historical patterns – is it simply a natural cyclical matter of limited, temporary importance? Answer: The current climate pattern is without modern historical precedent and may become as severe as that of the ice ages, inversed. The ice ages produced enormous upheavals on the few living at the time. Given the size of today’s populations, the current issue is far more severe than that of the ice ages.
- Second, is the rise caused by non-human events such as a natural increase in CO2 or perhaps the natural and temporary effects of solar activity? Answer: Essentially, who cares? The only effect of a possible cyclic pattern is to make matters that much worse, not better.
- Third, is the data reliable? Some accuse the UN of falsifying historical data to make its points more plausible. Answer: I don’t know. I doubt the UN deliberately is misleading the world using fraud. That would simply be too risky.
- Fourth, much of the climatic research relies on high speed computers and complex models that have never been accurate, thereby casting doubts on any conclusions. Answer: This concern is valid. Never expect black boxes to make believable decisions for you. They are only tools assisting old-fashioned thinking.
Very Critical: Carbon gases 1 (GHGs): Carbon gas concentrations are up. So are temperatures. Just about all scientific studies acknowledge a causal relationship between gases and climate. Arguments to the contrary are not credible. There is no believable evidence that the increase in carbon gas concentrations will slow over the short term or even mid term (5-20 years).
Not critical: Carbon gases 2 (GHGs): Here is something for astronomy buffs. Check out the planet Venus. Venus atmosphere is quite different from ours. It lacks very much in oxygen. But it contains some 13,000 times as much CO2. That means Venus’ atmosphere is 97% CO2. Guess what? Venus is a very hot
place where no life (in our sense) is possible. Its surface temperature is about 480 degrees Celsius (900 degrees Fahrenheit). Some call Venus a case of runaway greenhouse effect.
Almost hopeless: Politics, economics: The rhetoric, fearful, outrageous platitudes and evasions suggest no proactive or decisive actions any time soon, at least internationally. The official attitudes of major polluters are worse than sad, they are criminal. The controversial CERs (carbon credits) are the only major, observable economic events seen today, apart from some minor tax cases. The lack of results from the 2006 Nairobi Conference fuels widespread frustration. It proves that the current Kyoto Protocol is well on the way towards irrelevance. Can it be fixed? Currently, the answer is most likely no. With US, China and India taking on strong leadership – maybe.
Very critical: Ecosystems: I examined three ecosystems: coral reefs, species at risk and ocean acidification. There are many more. These three samples showed clearly that the Earth ecology is already under attack by Global Warming. Coral reefs are dying. Species are going extinct. Ocean Acidification kills millions of creatures throughout the oceanic ecosystem and beyond.
Critical: The Arctic and tundra: No good news comes out of this section. The Arctic and the tundra are under vicious attack from Global Warming. Ecosystems are destroyed. Possibly the commercial opening up of new exploration areas is good news to some large corporations that will claim they do us all a favor. They don’t. Exploitation will lead to worsening Global Warming. We may not be able to enjoy, for very long, the Arctic diamonds or the gas refined from the new oil supplies.
Very critical: Glaciers and ice packs: Except for most of Antarctica, glaciers and ice packs are melting at a high and accelerating pace, whether on Greenland or in the Alps. The white surfaces decline which contributes to even warmer temperatures. The impacts on the ecosystems and food cycles are serious and potentially catastrophic. A multitude of animals are threatened, including whales, seals and polar bears. Melting polar ice packs affect all the oceans’ currents with a potential for disaster. The extra-warm Arctic temperatures spread beyond its borders to surrounding fishing grounds – not good news at all for our food supplies. The retreats of glaciers in non polar areas have significant impact locally on wildlife and on fresh water supplies.
Very critical: Changing oceans, changing currents: The complexity of the oceanic environment makes meaningful conclusions almost impossible. Most research concentrates on relatively limited sections of the whole system. Although there are major, comprehensive and complex models, many assumptions and relationships fed into such models are not fully understood, nor completely researched or even quantified in all the required detail. What we do know is that the oceans are overwhelmingly powerful: the energy content of surface ocean currents exceeds the world total energy demand by a factor as big as a thousand times. A minor, unforeseeable upset in that energy balance could have devastating effects. This renders most issues, including Global Warming, almost meaningless, much less foreseeable.
- Critical factors: Greenland glacial rundown reduces Northern ocean saline levels and may slow the thermohalide process. A weakening of this process could slow or stop surface and deep water currents, leading to devastation of many areas. Higher temperatures, increased evaporation, higher saline levels in the lower latitudes make more precipitation and extreme weather very likely outcomes.
- Factors too complex to evaluate: Arctic ice packs, air pressures, sea level rise and flooding, ecosystems, sedimentary (ocean bottom) impacts, oceanic CO2 storage capacity and other effects from higher temperatures. See text for details.
- Factors probably less critical: Antarctica, sea bottom rise (tectonic uplift), erosion, overall density/volumes of seawater, human/industrial salt water use as a substitute for dwindling fresh water supplies (in terms of effect on oceans). See text for details.
Less critical: Ozone depletion: The impact of the ozone layer is mostly a health concern. That concern is diminished as the layer restores itself after harmful pollution decreases. There may be a slight contribution to Global Warming if the layer grows thicker or contains a higher ozone concentration.
Somewhat critical: El Nino: Is Global Warming related to El Nino? The conventional answer is no, El Nino is a local cyclic pattern while Global Warming is a global trend. But the increased frequency of El Nino years coupled with the warming trend leave many scientists wondering. Considering, for instance, the severe drought in Australia, the answer is important. Obviously, a generally warmer sea temperature will lead to conditions somewhat similar to El Nino off South America’s West Coast.
Extremely Critical: Deforestation (Non Annex 1 countries), Transportation (Annex 1 countries) and Electricity & Heat (Annex 1 countries). To be completed.
Mitigating factors (maybe making things better)
Less important: Bioengineering: It is easy to write off bio engineering as crack pot ideas. None are implemented today. Certainly some current approaches appear a bit far out. It is, though, an established science. The idea of pouring SO2 into the atmosphere comes from a very brilliant Nobel laureate. The expectation that conservation will cure Global Warming may be unrealistic. That would make bio or geo engineering ideas quite important, especially as an emergency remedy. 
Extremely important: Storing and converting gases: Storing GHGs underground in reservoirs is clearly a viable and potentially excellent idea. The technology is well known and used successfully today. It should be strongly encouraged by the authorities. Politicians should see a golden opportunity to take low risk (to them) action with a potentially significant positive impact (on us). There are many approaches to convert GHGs to useful or harmless components. It’s impossible not to view these technologies as perhaps the most positive sign of relief so far.
Less important: Reforestation: The net effect on carbon assimilation is not known but the reported reforestation trend is a positive sign. It takes many years to rebuild an ecosystem, assuming it is not permanently destroyed. The growing cycle of timber, for instance is anywhere from 50 to 100 years. Considering continued deforestation in Brazil, Indonesia and Malaysia, I can’t accept this to be a major positive impact on overall biomass and carbon assimilation any time soon.
Extremely important: Carbon taxes, CERs: Get the EU, the US and Canada, Japan and Russia to enact a coordinated, had core tax system. Once these major countries have effective and agreed on programs in place, place strong pressure on China and India to join. At that point, over 70% of GHG emissions would be controlled by an equitable system. The rest of the world could join the club only if they prove willing to accept the responsibility, not subsidies, to reduce their emissions.
Extremely important: Imposing limits: Extending the Clean Air Act to cover GHG emissions is an obvious, simple common sense initiative. That would curb the disastrous US carbon gas emissions. CAA has a proven, successful track record. Extending the CAA concept internationally could reduce many ill effects of Global Warming. Criminally incompetent and corrupt, George W. Bush and Dick Cheney see it differently. They do their best to go the opposite way. They force us all to face disaster.
Next
Here is a little reminder of a car less society. The picture was taken during the US depression of the 1930s. The Kyoto Protocol and most science studies call for a roll back in energy use to the levels of the 1930s. This is what the 1930s looked like to most people. At least the trains seemed to run. I sure will miss my Mini Cooper.
Here is a summary of the seven posts in the essay. Navigation links are located just below the summary.
The current GlobalWarming:1 discussed why Global Warming happened, who and what causes it, ended up with a list of villains. It did not go into the consequences of Global Warming. It didn’t discuss what is happening to the oceans, the Arctic, Greenland, El Nino, eco systems, weather impacts, tundra, ice packs, the Kyoto Protocol or the Stern reports or many other Global Warming topics. That is yet to come.
GlobalWarming:2 covers two main subjects. The UN provides a real mixed bag of positive and negative influences on the fight against Global Warming. The positive is that they try. The negative is that they fail. The Kyoto Protocol is not reducing emissions, nor is its associated reports. The CER system is causing more trouble than good. Industrial and national politics do not ensure a safe future. Although simple solutions exist, they are not acted on.
Global Warming:3 examines the basic root cause of our problem: rising temperatures. Is the increase real and does it matter? Is it natural or caused by man? Are the temperatures unusual compared to history? Do GHGs actually cause the increase? What can past temperature variations tell us about what we face today. Can you even trust the basic data and analysis of temperatures? Those and other questions are answered in detail.
GlobalWarming:4 shows Global Warming is not the first disaster forecast ever done, published and hyped. There have been many in the past and as a rule they failed. The disaster in question did not happen. So the question is – why would this particular doom and gloom outlook be right? What is different this time? As you will see, plenty is different.
GlobalWarming:5 reviews the role and issues of population growth. This is a vital issue for future emissions as shown in GlobalWarming:1. Historically over the past 250 years, the explosive growth in populations explains two thirds of the increase in GHG emissions. The rise in personal carbon use must be reversed as must other issues related to unbalanced growth in populations.
GlobalWarminng:6 is the meat of this series. It gets into the details of what is happening right now in the some 25 different real life areas, impacted by Global Warming. These are not forecasts, assumptions or opinions but verifiable hard facts. The picture seen in full is quite frightening and very indicative of your future. The every day signs get worse by the day.
GlobalWarming:7 paints three scenarios (not forecasts) of what might happen in the future. There is a pessimistic, an optimistic and a middle of the road picture. The three scenarios are based on simple, common sense assumptions, very different from the elaborate, multi million $ systems enjoyed by the UN, the Stern Report, EPA and others. These big systems rely on a myriad of assumptions as input, many of which aren’t really known and/or subject to lots of complexity.
I’m by no means competing with the “big” studies or the smart people putting them together. I used to be a forecasting guru working for the UN, the World Bank, FAO, OECD, the EU and many Fortune 500 companies. I guess I have a right to an opinion. No one is required to consider my views.
I am completely nonaffiliated. I have no axe to grind. I receive no monetary compensation, grants or sponsorship. I have no obligations to fulfill. There are no office politics around here. I need not to promote any agendas except mine – the survival of us all.
GlobalWarming:2-7 will follow together with other commentaries and follow ups. Hang in there. The links below help you navigate this monster essay. It’s all quite important to your health.
| GW:1 | GW:2 | GW:3 | GW:4 | GW:5 | GW:6 | GW:7 |
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